************** Tilt ************** (1 Viewer)

[pittstownkiller]

Does anyone else ever feel, that with all the information in this forum, that it is very easy to make bad choices? In poker it is called "Tilt" - where you make all the correct reads but you are using a bad process (for the situation) to discern the info or that you use the correct process, with bad reads; to get all the wrong results. "Tilt" refers to the environment you find yourself in, that is making your process not effective. I have seemed to have better luck with less info; maybe I should be careful in the shark pool. Any thoughts, or even better, any solutions?

 

[KentGraham10]

Shark pool or anywhere you get FF info for that matter seems more reliable on which players to pick up on WW, but I find I am less successful with matchups when I put too much research into it.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

I always thought being on tilt was simpler than that: you're reeling from a bad beat or big loss and you're emotional so you do stupid and desperate things.

Either way, as someone who is 1-3 and about to be done for the year, I know exactly what you're talking about. But I don't blame the Shark Pool. I blame myself for chasing points, for wishing for trends instead of spotting them, for ignoring what I'm seeing in game, for forgetting the basics like my scoring system, etc.

Of course, I've always been better at recognizing that I'm on tilt than stopping myself from being on tilt. Anyone have any tips on that I'll listen.

 

[pittstownkiller]

I find I am less successful with matchups when I put too much research into it.

I hear you, brother.

 

[pittstownkiller]

I always thought being on tilt was simpler than that: you're reeling from a bad beat or big loss and you're emotional so you do stupid and desperate things.Either way, as someone who is 1-3 and about to be done for the year, I know exactly what you're talking about. But I don't blame the Shark Pool. I blame myself for chasing points, for wishing for trends instead of spotting them, for ignoring what I'm seeing in game, for forgetting the basics like my scoring system, etc. Of course, I've always been better at recognizing that I'm on tilt than stopping myself from being on tilt. Anyone have any tips on that I'll listen.

I don't disagree with your definition, in reality we are saying the same thing.Not blaming the shark pool, but wondering if it is not conducive to avoiding the bad habits you referenced.

 

[Utter Chaos]

The thing about the shark pool is there is so much discussion you'll have as many people say one thing as you do saying the opposite. You just have to absorb all of the information and use your gut.

 

[Chigurh]

You just have to absorb all of the information and use your gut.

Exactly. You have to remember that much of the stuff you are reading has been written by dudes who can predict the future about as well as you can and who know football about as much as you do. Similar to the real world, it's much easier to live with the decisions you ultimately make if you take some personal responsibility for those decisions. If your gut screams that the girl you are dating is not right for you, listen to it. You may want to solicit the opinions of your friends and family but you ultimately need to decide for yourself if she's the one for you. The last thing you want to do is marry her because your parents and your friends told you that you'd be crazy to break things off with her. As far as transactions go, I also try to avoid having my leagues open in one tab and fantasy forums/advice columns open in another. That leads to irrational/emotional decisions to dump/add guys before I've had time to think about whether that will serve my team well. It's tough to do because you'll be on a site that tells you that someone is a "must own in ALL leagues" and you'll think to yourself, "he's not owned in my league, so I guess I must pick him up!!" before you stop to realize that the guy you just dropped has even less business being on the waiver wire than the guy you just picked up.Don't chase stats, chase talent. Sites like this one can help you do that if you don't allow yourself to get caught up in every single flavor of the week.

 

[habsfan]

When you look at the breadth and depth of information and opinion shared here, it's (collectively speaking) like going to a clairvoyant - the more they say, the more chance they have of being right on something.

Similarly, if you stare at "data" long enough, you'll start to see patterns and order. Sometimes it's there but sometimes it's really just us putting it there.

When a season is going less than ideally, it's awfully difficult to do nothing and if you're anything like me, you'll find a way to do something - even if that something isn't really impactful. I think this is epitomized by the "bump so and so" comments that get added to seemingly every thread and event. We can sometimes take the smallest factoid and run to the waiver wire with it.

If you find yourself creating (and then cancelling) a number of potential waiver transactions during your weekly waiver period, you might be in "tilt".

 

[Slevin Kelevra]

Any thoughts, or even better, any solutions?

Your Brain >always> Shark Pool

 

[DoubleG]

Don't chase stats, chase talent. Sites like this one can help you do that if you don't allow yourself to get caught up in every single flavor of the week.

I was with you until this last statement (especially the stats part). I agree you have to avoid the "flavor of the week" syndrome. As an example, just because Ryan Torain is a hot topic and considered a decent pickup - keep in mind what kind of production you can realistically expect - RB2 upside (tops, imho), decent for bye week coverage or injury. But don't trade the farm for him or bounce a guy with a much more proven track record (Turner, Benson, etc.) just to play with your new toy.In terms of the stats part, my disagreement is that usually stats (especially things like carries and targets) are indicative of trends. For example, some people are suprised at the production of Arian Foater, McFadden and Mendenhall - however, if you realize that they are 3 of the top 4 RBs in carries, it is not nearly as suprising. Going back to the Torain example, if people would have looked at the stats from 9/26 they would have noticed that he was basically splitting carries with Portis, an aging vet - and that was the time to land him...not after this past week when he is clearly the guy with 18 rushes for 70 yards and a TD this past Sunday.Basically, while in dynasty leagues I'll agree with the "follow the talent" thinking, sometimes you also have to pay close attention to stats to spot trends that may go "against the grain" - just look at all the Wells owners wondering when Wells (with his obviously superior talent) will overtake Hightower for more significant carry numbers. For whatever reason, coach Wiz (misnomer) isn't yielding to the talent. In that case, the stats are (at least for the near future) more indicative of fantasy production.What am I trying to say to the OP? In headh-to-head FF all kinds of crazy things happen. Don't second guess yourself too much. Also keep in mind that opinions in the SP are just that...opinions. Some well informed, some completely biased. Some people have even benn known to post things contrary to what they actually think, just to spark controversy, or falsely raise/lower the perception of a player's value. There are always guys that way over (or under) perform compared to their ADPs - but by year's end, many guys end up relatively close (barring injury or bizarre situations - like star WRs getting traded in week 4) to their ADP. Stay the course. You have DWill or Ray Rice or AJ at WR and they're not anywhere close to doing the job? I think they'll improve and end up much closer to the top then they are now.

 

[Chigurh]

Don't chase stats, chase talent. Sites like this one can help you do that if you don't allow yourself to get caught up in every single flavor of the week.

In terms of the stats part, my disagreement is that usually stats (especially things like carries and targets) are indicative of trends. For example, some people are suprised at the production of Arian Foater, McFadden and Mendenhall - however, if you realize that they are 3 of the top 4 RBs in carries, it is not nearly as suprising. Going back to the Torain example, if people would have looked at the stats from 9/26 they would have noticed that he was basically splitting carries with Portis, an aging vet - and that was the time to land him...not after this past week when he is clearly the guy with 18 rushes for 70 yards and a TD this past Sunday.

I don't think we are in disagreement. We're just talking about two different things. I think you absolutely have to pay attention to stats to help you identify whether a player's arrow is pointing up or down. What I meant by chasing stats is overreacting too much to the stats a guy put up last week and losing track of the fact that last week is over and you won't get those points this week. I'm talking about when people plug a guy into their lineup the week after he has a big game and bench a more proven guy or a guy with a better matchup for this week. A guy in my league last year had an uncanny knack for having a guy blow up on his bench and having another guy throw up a zero in his starting lineup. What did he do? He swapped them the next week only to have the same thing happen. What was his response? Swap them again. His lineup decisions were so heavily based on the previous week's results and didn't seem to take into account any other data.

 

[pittstownkiller]

A lot of good information being exchanged here. I was going to quote specifics but I would be pulling one from every post. Reading through them, I do see I am on/in "tilt" (Cooley's Angel's definition, more than mine). My problem is that I have been a little slow to react, which in the past has served me well. Dynasty leagues require a little more discipline and I have a stable of dinged-up thoroughbreds. The emotional side of my "tilt" battle is that I have some mid-season projects on my roster and I'm losing my discipline as the losses mount. Spotting trends and analyzing players situations has served me well and I should not stray from it - unless my theories on the game, maybe just for the short-term, have passed me by (this is closer to my definition of "tilt").

 

[DoubleG]

A lot of good information being exchanged here. I was going to quote specifics but I would be pulling one from every post. Reading through them, I do see I am on/in "tilt" (Cooley's Angel's definition, more than mine). My problem is that I have been a little slow to react, which in the past has served me well. Dynasty leagues require a little more discipline and I have a stable of dinged-up thoroughbreds. The emotional side of my "tilt" battle is that I have some mid-season projects on my roster and I'm losing my discipline as the losses mount. Spotting trends and analyzing players situations has served me well and I should not stray from it - unless my theories on the game, maybe just for the short-term, have passed me by (this is closer to my definition of "tilt").

Ironically, in some ways, "staying the course" is actually easier in dynatsy leagues, imho. What I mean by that is the "reward" for being wrong on week to week start decisions, or buying young players and plugging them into your lineup too soon is a poor record...which usually means a higher draft pick. I'm not talking about throwing games, just that maintaining discipline (or think of it as "having faith in your guys") is a little easier to do when you know that winning the championship this year is not the only intent - although winning them at some point is.

 

[pittstownkiller]

A lot of good information being exchanged here. I was going to quote specifics but I would be pulling one from every post. Reading through them, I do see I am on/in "tilt" (Cooley's Angel's definition, more than mine). My problem is that I have been a little slow to react, which in the past has served me well. Dynasty leagues require a little more discipline and I have a stable of dinged-up thoroughbreds. The emotional side of my "tilt" battle is that I have some mid-season projects on my roster and I'm losing my discipline as the losses mount. Spotting trends and analyzing players situations has served me well and I should not stray from it - unless my theories on the game, maybe just for the short-term, have passed me by (this is closer to my definition of "tilt").

Ironically, in some ways, "staying the course" is actually easier in dynatsy leagues, imho. What I mean by that is the "reward" for being wrong on week to week start decisions, or buying young players and plugging them into your lineup too soon is a poor record...which usually means a higher draft pick. I'm not talking about throwing games, just that maintaining discipline (or think of it as "having faith in your guys") is a little easier to do when you know that winning the championship this year is not the only intent - although winning them at some point is.

I wouldn't disagree with you. Maybe discipline wasn't the best word; let's try that dynasty leagues have a different dynamic. I would take a little exception with your point that winning the championship isn't every years goal; I want to have a dynasty in my dynasty league.