Time to start thinking about Yu Darvish (1 Viewer)

[shadyridr]

Lot of things to be settled. But if the Jays end up spending 100mill (50mill posting + 50mill contract) for 5 years of Darvish I would consider that way too much of a risk. Strike zone is so much bigger there. Why these guys coming over have terrific K/BB ratio's. Strike zone gets tighter and it changes everything dramatically. An extra inch at here and there is major. Trust me. Give me Buehrle at 6/90 then Darvish for 5/100+. You are rolling the dice that Darvish is an ace. Give me the proven guy for 15mill/year.

but buehrle is not an ace

Darvish is an ace? I just don't think it's smart for a team like Toronto to pay someone ace money without knowing that.

think youre missing the point. at least theres a chance darvish is an ace. meanwhile we already know buehrle is not an ace

 

[shadyridr]

Red Sox 4th in the east this year?

They were 3rd the past two years.

imo yanks, tb, sox, and jays if they get darvish and especially if they go after fielder are all pretty equal

 

[Daywalker]

Lot of things to be settled. But if the Jays end up spending 100mill (50mill posting + 50mill contract) for 5 years of Darvish I would consider that way too much of a risk. Strike zone is so much bigger there. Why these guys coming over have terrific K/BB ratio's. Strike zone gets tighter and it changes everything dramatically. An extra inch at here and there is major. Trust me. Give me Buehrle at 6/90 then Darvish for 5/100+. You are rolling the dice that Darvish is an ace. Give me the proven guy for 15mill/year.

but buehrle is not an ace

Darvish is an ace? I just don't think it's smart for a team like Toronto to pay someone ace money without knowing that.

think youre missing the point. at least theres a chance darvish is an ace. meanwhile we already know buehrle is not an ace

Yes, a chance Darvish is an ace. One thing for sure is you're going to pay him ace money. Don't see it him as a slam-dunk to be a top 10-15 SP. Neither do the Yankees apparently.

 

[Zigg]

Lot of things to be settled. But if the Jays end up spending 100mill (50mill posting + 50mill contract) for 5 years of Darvish I would consider that way too much of a risk. Strike zone is so much bigger there. Why these guys coming over have terrific K/BB ratio's. Strike zone gets tighter and it changes everything dramatically. An extra inch at here and there is major. Trust me. Give me Buehrle at 6/90 then Darvish for 5/100+. You are rolling the dice that Darvish is an ace. Give me the proven guy for 15mill/year.

but buehrle is not an ace

Darvish is an ace? I just don't think it's smart for a team like Toronto to pay someone ace money without knowing that.

The Jays have a ton of money, so that is not an issue. They have said several times that they will increase the pay roll once they feel they're an addition or two away from competing, but will not force it. If they acquire Darvish, I would expect another player or two to be added as well.

 

[the moops]

Red Sox 4th in the east this year?

They were 3rd the past two years.

Solid logic here cappy

 

[Premier]

Red Sox 4th in the east this year?

They were 3rd the past two years.

Solid logic here cappy

Nobody said they were going to. It's just a possibility. Settle down.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Lot of things to be settled. But if the Jays end up spending 100mill (50mill posting + 50mill contract) for 5 years of Darvish I would consider that way too much of a risk.

Strike zone is so much bigger there. Why these guys coming over have terrific K/BB ratio's. Strike zone gets tighter and it changes everything dramatically. An extra inch at here and there is major. Trust me.

Give me Buehrle at 6/90 then Darvish for 5/100+. You are rolling the dice that Darvish is an ace. Give me the proven guy for 15mill/year.

but buehrle is not an ace

Darvish is an ace? I just don't think it's smart for a team like Toronto to pay someone ace money without knowing that.

The Jays have a ton of money, so that is not an issue. They have said several times that they will increase the pay roll once they feel they're an addition or two away from competing, but will not force it. If they acquire Darvish, I would expect another player or two to be added as well.

I think a lot of people (Mostly Americans) have no idea that the Jays have one of the richest owners in the league; last number I saw was around $6 billion. And don't forget that they bought the Skydome for only $25M... and promptly turned it into a giant advertisement.

 

[Zigg]

Is it official that the Jays were top bidder, or will we have to wait until after the negotiation period?

 

[the moops]

Red Sox 4th in the east this year?

They were 3rd the past two years.

Solid logic here cappy

Nobody said they were going to. It's just a possibility. Settle down.

Do I seem worked up?I would think the odds of the Red Sox finishing in 4th place are lower than them winning the division.

 

[Bogart]

Announcement to come tonight.

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

It's definitely worth it to give this guy a whirl.

 

[shadyridr]

ESPN's Buster Olney spoke with a source Monday who suggested that the Rangers might have won exclusive negotiating rights to Japanese righty Yu Darvish.

Many have suspected that the Blue Jays made the highest bid, and the New York Post even crowned Toronto as the winner last week. But Olney spoke to an American League executive Monday afternoon who said the "smart money is on the Rangers." Darvish, 25, posted a sparkling 1.44 ERA and 276/36 K/BB ratio in 232 innings this past season in Japan. The Nippon-Ham Fighters are expected to make an announcement on his probable landing spot Monday night.

 

[Northern Voice]

Rogers Sportsnet is having a 2-hour radio show on Yu Darvish tonight from 8-10 for the winning bid to be announced. This is the company that owns the Jays. Would they have this kind of special without knowing the Jays have won the bid? Would be a huge let down for a lot of people in Toronto now if it isn't the Jays...We should know soon.

 

[Bogart]

It's the Rangers. I am shocked.

JD is a hell of a poker player.

 

[ctdub]

It's the Rangers. I am shocked. JD is a hell of a poker player.

Heck yeah!

 

[shadyridr]

yankees must really be having money "problems"

 

[texasheat]

 

[Northern Voice]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

 

[ctdub]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

Not sure if that should tell you more about CJ or Yu. Either way it makes a statement. Rangers scouted Darvish more than any team in the league.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

Not sure if that should tell you more about CJ or Yu. Either way it makes a statement. Rangers scouted Darvish more than any team in the league.

What statement is that? That they'll spend $100 million on a player that has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues? Says a lot that the Yankees and Red Sux wouldn't pay the ransom, they have scouts also. They were smart in letting Wilson walk though, I think you know exactly what you get with him and it just isn't enough for the money. I think I'd rather take the chance on Darvish, and they did.

 

[Zigg]

 

[ctdub]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

Not sure if that should tell you more about CJ or Yu. Either way it makes a statement. Rangers scouted Darvish more than any team in the league.

What statement is that? That they'll spend $100 million on a player that has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues? Says a lot that the Yankees and Red Sux wouldn't pay the ransom, they have scouts also. They were smart in letting Wilson walk though, I think you know exactly what you get with him and it just isn't enough for the money. I think I'd rather take the chance on Darvish, and they did.

The Rangers reportedly had a scout at every Darvish start this year. Jon Daniels as well as Alex Anthopoulos are the only 2 gm's I've heard of that watched Darvish in person. They've done their homework. Not sure what you mean by yankees and red sox not winning bid as a statement.I doubt Yu will be as good as all world Max Scherzer though.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

Not sure if that should tell you more about CJ or Yu. Either way it makes a statement. Rangers scouted Darvish more than any team in the league.

What statement is that? That they'll spend $100 million on a player that has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues? Says a lot that the Yankees and Red Sux wouldn't pay the ransom, they have scouts also. They were smart in letting Wilson walk though, I think you know exactly what you get with him and it just isn't enough for the money. I think I'd rather take the chance on Darvish, and they did.

The Rangers reportedly had a scout at every Darvish start this year. Jon Daniels as well as Alex Anthopoulos are the only 2 gm's I've heard of that watched Darvish in person. They've done their homework. Not sure what you mean by yankees and red sox not winning bid as a statement.I doubt Yu will be as good as all world Max Scherzer though.

You can always hope. The Yankees and Red Sux have more money than Texas and can take more chances, that's not that difficult to figure out. I'm all for Texas spending money on guys the Yankees and Red Sux want, but you seem to think they know more than everyone else. That's not how things work in this day and age, teams can just as easily scout from afar as they can sitting in Hiroshima.

 

[Eephus]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

Not sure if that should tell you more about CJ or Yu. Either way it makes a statement. Rangers scouted Darvish more than any team in the league.

What statement is that? That they'll spend $100 million on a player that has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues? Says a lot that the Yankees and Red Sux wouldn't pay the ransom, they have scouts also. They were smart in letting Wilson walk though, I think you know exactly what you get with him and it just isn't enough for the money. I think I'd rather take the chance on Darvish, and they did.

The Rangers reportedly had a scout at every Darvish start this year. Jon Daniels as well as Alex Anthopoulos are the only 2 gm's I've heard of that watched Darvish in person. They've done their homework. Not sure what you mean by yankees and red sox not winning bid as a statement.I doubt Yu will be as good as all world Max Scherzer though.

You can always hope. The Yankees and Red Sux have more money than Texas and can take more chances, that's not that difficult to figure out. I'm all for Texas spending money on guys the Yankees and Red Sux want, but you seem to think they know more than everyone else. That's not how things work in this day and age, teams can just as easily scout from afar as they can sitting in Hiroshima.

But you can't get Nippon Ham there

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Wow. The Rangers pitching is completely unhittable now! I can't see one single hole in this rotation. All are aces. Dare I say, Dream Team?

 

[Bogart]

Wow. The Rangers pitching is completely unhittable now! I can't see one single hole in this rotation. All are aces. Dare I say, Dream Team?

Your reverse jinx will not work here, sir.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Wow. The Rangers pitching is completely unhittable now! I can't see one single hole in this rotation. All are aces. Dare I say, Dream Team?

Your reverse jinx will not work here, sir.

Based on everything I've read from Ranger fans the farm system is overflowing with talent too. How many championships are we looking at with this Dream Team?.....5?....6?....7?

 

[oso diablo]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

younger and better

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Why is Texas willing to pay 100 million for Darvish but not C.J.? Is it an age thing?

younger and better

Dead on with younger. Better remains to be seen. Higher ceiling than CJ for sure, but how will he do pitching 30 games to MLB hitters? I'm sure he's pleased that he'll be able to pitch half his games in that pitcher's park.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Big fan of the move for Tex. Obviously it's a HUGE risk, but at least we're not giving up any young talent like mentioned before. If money was no factor and before this all started you asked the knowledgeable fan of what they would rather have; re-sign CJ, or buy Yu, I think most would have said Yu.

The other interesting aspect is the "rock star” factor Yu will bring here. From a non-baseball standpoint, I think this will be big for the club’s popularity in general. Think when Ichiro went to Seattle. We'll be seeing a lot of Yu on ESPN; it should be exciting.

 

[Controller Johnny]

Interesting to see which direction the Cubs go now. I believe they would have liked to have him, but weren't going to bet the farm on him. Now that it's decided, I think it drives the value of Matt Garza up quite a bit on the trade market. Do they trade him to the Blue Jays for a ton of talent, or does he go to the Padres? Will be interesting.

 

[dparker713]

At his asking price plus the posting fee, he's looking at a contract around 25 mil per season if its 5 years and 23 mil per for 6. Thats pretty insane for a guy that hasnt been throwing a regulation ball.

 

[money.never.sleeps]

At his asking price plus the posting fee, he's looking at a contract around 25 mil per season if its 5 years and 23 mil per for 6. Thats pretty insane for a guy that hasnt been throwing a regulation ball.

he's not getting 23 mil per season nor have I heard that # tossed around. More like 15 max.And that posting fee goes to the Fighters.. not Darvish.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

At his asking price plus the posting fee, he's looking at a contract around 25 mil per season if its 5 years and 23 mil per for 6. Thats pretty insane for a guy that hasnt been throwing a regulation ball.

he's not getting 23 mil per season nor have I heard that # tossed around. More like 15 max.And that posting fee goes to the Fighters.. not Darvish.

If he signs a 5 year $75 million contract and Texas is paying $51.7 million for his rights, that's 5/126 or $25.2 million a year. Even if they get him for a more reasonable 5/60 that is still $112 million, or $22 million a year.

 

[dparker713]

At his asking price plus the posting fee, he's looking at a contract around 25 mil per season if its 5 years and 23 mil per for 6. Thats pretty insane for a guy that hasnt been throwing a regulation ball.

he's not getting 23 mil per season nor have I heard that # tossed around. More like 15 max.And that posting fee goes to the Fighters.. not Darvish.

Doesn't matter to the Rangers' budget to whom those dollars are going.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

At his asking price plus the posting fee, he's looking at a contract around 25 mil per season if its 5 years and 23 mil per for 6. Thats pretty insane for a guy that hasnt been throwing a regulation ball.

he's not getting 23 mil per season nor have I heard that # tossed around. More like 15 max.And that posting fee goes to the Fighters.. not Darvish.

If he signs a 5 year $75 million contract and Texas is paying $51.7 million for his rights, that's 5/126 or $25.2 million a year. Even if they get him for a more reasonable 5/60 that is still $112 million, or $22 million a year.

It's crazy total $. Some of that is paying for not having to deal prospects (see Gio trade). As a fan who will barely, if at all feel the pain of the contract, it's a best possible scenario in terms of offseason pitching moves. Resigning Colby would have been 2. Buehlre would have been 3 and a "Gio" type trade would have been 4. If he can stay under a 4 ERA an pitch 200 innings, it will be worth it.

 

[ctdub]

The Rangers have been spending a ton of money in Latin America. With the new cba capping them at $2.9 million they will redirect those dollars somewhere else. Japan... FA market. I think I read they've been spending $15mm plus a year in Latin America. Not sure if that's an accurate figure or not...

 

[oso diablo]

how much do clubs spend in scouting and development, hoping to find a player as good as Darvish?

also, some are reacting as if a Japanese pitcher is a total unknown, when we already have reasonably good data on how to translate from Japan to MLB. One MLE i saw would put Darvish's 2011 as one of the top 5 pitchers in all of MLB.

 

[Captain Hook]

One MLE i saw would put Darvish's 2011 as one of the top 5 pitchers in all of MLB.

Really? Japanese baseball is about equal to good AA.....couple that with the fact that Darvish was pitching every six days and will now have to pitch every five days. Top with cultural and diet changes while flying more miles in one year than he has in his lifetime and I would say that is a pie in the sky number......Not saying Darvish is not a great talent and a very accomplished pitcher, BUT.....

 

[Daywalker]

One MLE i saw would put Darvish's 2011 as one of the top 5 pitchers in all of MLB.

Really? Japanese baseball is about equal to good AA.....couple that with the fact that Darvish was pitching every six days and will now have to pitch every five days. Top with cultural and diet changes while flying more miles in one year than he has in his lifetime and I would say that is a pie in the sky number......Not saying Darvish is not a great talent and a very accomplished pitcher, BUT.....

Yankees and Red Sox (Valentine) didn't break the bank for him either.

 

[Dirkswish]

Deadline is today for him to sign.

Regardless of what happens, should see quite a few things fall into place after today.

 

[Dirkswish]

6 years for $60 million. Done deal.

 

[Brewtown]

This guy is going to dominate right from his first start! He'll be a top 15 fantasy starting P in 2012, and possibly even higher considering most players have never hit against him.

 

[shadyridr]

6 years for $60 million. Done deal.

wow shocked hes only getting ten mil a year. all the speculation i read was five yrs, 75mil

 

[Captain Hook]

This guy is going to dominate right from his first start! He'll be a top 15 fantasy starting P in 2012, and possibly even higher considering most players have never hit against him.

REALLY?1) never lived in the USA2) will have to learn what to eat3) never been away from his parents (not necessarily lived with but close)4) hopefully the Rangers keep Tateyama on the roster5) only pitched once a week in Japan - will have to pitch every fifth day now - with a different baseball!6) Terrific ability - I am not doubting that....in fact he has seven quality pitches...wonder how long it takes to figure out signals with Napoli and Torrealba?7) Have you ever seen the contingent of reporters and photographers that follow Takashi Saito? even before spring training Darvish will have a huge contingent following him day and nightIn short they haven't hit against him but he hasn't pitched against them either - or done all these other things.Expecatation above him being a SP2 are off the ledge

 

[Guest]

At his asking price plus the posting fee, he's looking at a contract around 25 mil per season if its 5 years and 23 mil per for 6. Thats pretty insane for a guy that hasnt been throwing a regulation ball.

he's not getting 23 mil per season nor have I heard that # tossed around. More like 15 max.And that posting fee goes to the Fighters.. not Darvish.

Doesn't matter to the Rangers' budget to whom those dollars are going.

It could. The posting fee doesn't get counted against the team salary for luxury tax purposes. That's huge for some teams. It doesn't look like Texas will grow their payroll enough for it to really matter but it's possible, especially if they end up with Fielder and are planning on resigning Hamilton and Cruz.The total package works out to about $18.5MM per which seems like a lot in today's market, especially with the uneven performance of Japanese pitchers who have come over. Anyone know if/how MLB teams have valued 1st round picks? Because you could offset the deal somewhat with that, figuring that they're going to get compensatory picks back for Wilson and don't have to send any to any other team in return.

 

[Guest]

This guy is going to dominate right from his first start! He'll be a top 15 fantasy starting P in 2012, and possibly even higher considering most players have never hit against him.

REALLY?1) never lived in the USA2) will have to learn what to eat3) never been away from his parents (not necessarily lived with but close)4) hopefully the Rangers keep Tateyama on the roster5) only pitched once a week in Japan - will have to pitch every fifth day now - with a different baseball!6) Terrific ability - I am not doubting that....in fact he has seven quality pitches...wonder how long it takes to figure out signals with Napoli and Torrealba?7) Have you ever seen the contingent of reporters and photographers that follow Takashi Saito? even before spring training Darvish will have a huge contingent following him day and nightIn short they haven't hit against him but he hasn't pitched against them either - or done all these other things.Expecatation above him being a SP2 are off the ledge

#8 Makes Arlington his home park.Agree with the overall assesment, though

 

[Brewtown]

This guy is going to dominate right from his first start! He'll be a top 15 fantasy starting P in 2012, and possibly even higher considering most players have never hit against him.

REALLY?1) never lived in the USA2) will have to learn what to eat3) never been away from his parents (not necessarily lived with but close)4) hopefully the Rangers keep Tateyama on the roster5) only pitched once a week in Japan - will have to pitch every fifth day now - with a different baseball!6) Terrific ability - I am not doubting that....in fact he has seven quality pitches...wonder how long it takes to figure out signals with Napoli and Torrealba?7) Have you ever seen the contingent of reporters and photographers that follow Takashi Saito? even before spring training Darvish will have a huge contingent following him day and nightIn short they haven't hit against him but he hasn't pitched against them either - or done all these other things.Expecatation above him being a SP2 are off the ledge

REALLY?1) never lived in the USA - If your a good birdhouse maker, you should be able to make good birdhouses anywhere in the world!2) will have to learn what to eat - Seriously?? You've been reading too much BS....3) never been away from his parents (not necessarily lived with but close) He'll have someone or even a contingent/translater helping him.....4) hopefully the Rangers keep Tateyama on the roster... He'll have some of the best coaching/help that anyone could ask for, Mike/Greg Maddux and Nolan Ryan (Has he ever had that type of coaching before??)....5) only pitched once a week in Japan - will have to pitch every fifth day now - with a different baseball! What type of baseball and mound were used at the 2009 World Baseball Classic- He dominated there!6) Terrific ability - I am not doubting that....in fact he has seven quality pitches...wonder how long it takes to figure out signals with Napoli and Torrealba?- He'll have the best possible coaching available in the world....7) Have you ever seen the contingent of reporters and photographers that follow Takashi Saito? even before spring training Darvish will have a huge contingent following him day and night- You are correct about this. I think that he has already had this type of press coverage in Japan.....I think he is better than CJ Wilson right out of the gate! CJ Wilson was the 10th best starting P in my fantasy league last year.......Don't sleep on him!

 

[dparker713]

Don't sleep on him!

Thats not going to be a problem. He'll be hyped plenty. But if I'm taking a big gamble on a fairly unknown pitcher, its gonna be Matt Moore, not Darvish.

 

[pantagrapher]

My twitters are blowing up about this kid's first spring outing. 93-95 on the gun. Getting swings and misses. Showing good control of the breaking stuff.