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Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
We had three first round RBs in 2012. Incidentally, all three were guys who fit into one of my groups pretty snugly.
There's no great league-wide devaluation of RBs going on. There just haven't been very many premium talents entering the league the last couple years. Not much more to it than that. When we start seeing some freaks again ala Stewart/Bush/Spiller/Mathews, we'll start seeing more teams use 1st round picks on backs.
None of this means that RB is a premium position. It isn't. It's kind of like MLB. It's relatively low importance and it's easy to find someone serviceable, so it only makes sense to use a first round pick there if you're getting something special. You're not going to see teams reach like they do at CB, QB, OT, DT, and DE.
This isn't something new in football. It has been like this for at least the last decade.
There's no great league-wide devaluation of RBs going on. There just haven't been very many premium talents entering the league the last couple years. Not much more to it than that. When we start seeing some freaks again ala Stewart/Bush/Spiller/Mathews, we'll start seeing more teams use 1st round picks on backs.
None of this means that RB is a premium position. It isn't. It's kind of like MLB. It's relatively low importance and it's easy to find someone serviceable, so it only makes sense to use a first round pick there if you're getting something special. You're not going to see teams reach like they do at CB, QB, OT, DT, and DE.
This isn't something new in football. It has been like this for at least the last decade.
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That is true as well.
The position itself is not worth the heavy investment of a big money deal or a high pick.
They get hurt and are replaceable....
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Gordon didn't catch the ball much this year - partly because James White excelled in that arena - yet despite that, he got a 2nd round grade. So yeah, he isn't a first round lock monster. But he looked great running the ball this year, and if he shows even average ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.....
EBF
Footballguy
Playing devil's advocate, Gordon is lean, high-cut, straight-linish, and gained a lot of his yards on plays where he didn't really have to do anything besides run in a straight sprint. Not sure how much I like him as a prospect. He may end up being a 1st round pick. I don't think he's a mortal lock today though.
EBF
Footballguy
I just threw together a spreadsheet with workout information for all 27 RBs drafted in the first round from 2004-2012.
Here are the averages:
Weight - 216.7
BMI - 30.3
40 - 4.44
Vertical - 35.8
Broad Jump - 10'3"
That's a pretty good description of the generic first round caliber RB from a workout numbers standpoint.
If you sort by weight, you find that 21 of 27 RBs were at least 210 pounds. Of the 6 "small" backs who weighed below 210 pounds, here are the averages:
40 - 4.34
Vertical - 36.3"
Broad Jump - 10'5.5"
If you sort by BMI, you find that 21 of 27 RBs were at least 29.6 or higher. Of the 6 "small" backs who were below that threshold, here are the averages:
40 - 4.33
Vertical - 35.9
Broad Jump - 10'5.3"
Here are the numbers for the 21 RBs whose weight puts them in the "not small" group:
40 - 4.47
Vertical - 35.6"
Broad Jump - 10'2"
Here are the numbers for the 21 RBs whose BMI puts them in the "not small" group:
40 - 4.47
Vertical - 35.75"
Broad Jump - 10'2"
The most significant difference between the two "small" groups and the two "not small" groups is the 40 time. The jumps are marginally better for the small backs, but the difference is minimal. However, the 40 times are over a full tenth faster on average. What this means is that "small" backs (either according to weight or body thickness) need to run REALLY fast to get picked in the 1st round.
Overall, the numbers corroborate a lot of what I said. For a "not small" RB (one with a 29+ BMI and/or a weight of 210+ pounds) to get picked in the first round, he probably needs to be within shouting distance of a 4.47 40, a 35.5" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump. Anything that's more than .05 slower in the 40, 2" shorter in the vertical, and 4" shorter in the broad jump starts to look like a dealbreaker unless he's absolutely exceptional in one of the other drills (i.e. Mendy and Ronnie bombing in the jumps, but running insanely fast for their size). If you're a "small" RB (sub 29 BMI and/or sub 210 pound), you want to be in the same ballpark in the jumps and you probably also need to clock at least a 4.3X to expect a first round draft slot.
Apply these restrictions to the 2014 and 2013 draft classes. You'll see pretty quickly why there isn't a first round talent in either. Knile Davis and Christine Michael basically fit the physical profile, but they had glaring production/injury issues. The other top backs didn't test well enough. This year, Hyde and Hill are nowhere near hitting the right marks. The guys who tested well (Sankey, Seastrunk, and Mason) are all below 210 pounds without the requisite speed for that size.
Charles Sims, Terrance West, Jerick McKinnon, and Andre Williams kind of fit the mold from a measurables standpoint, but then nobody has ever argued that those players are first round talents. This is very much a "necessary, but not sufficient thing." In other words, "you must be this athletic to be a first round back, but being this athletic doesn't guarantee that you'll be a first round back."
Here are the averages:
Weight - 216.7
BMI - 30.3
40 - 4.44
Vertical - 35.8
Broad Jump - 10'3"
That's a pretty good description of the generic first round caliber RB from a workout numbers standpoint.
If you sort by weight, you find that 21 of 27 RBs were at least 210 pounds. Of the 6 "small" backs who weighed below 210 pounds, here are the averages:
40 - 4.34
Vertical - 36.3"
Broad Jump - 10'5.5"
If you sort by BMI, you find that 21 of 27 RBs were at least 29.6 or higher. Of the 6 "small" backs who were below that threshold, here are the averages:
40 - 4.33
Vertical - 35.9
Broad Jump - 10'5.3"
Here are the numbers for the 21 RBs whose weight puts them in the "not small" group:
40 - 4.47
Vertical - 35.6"
Broad Jump - 10'2"
Here are the numbers for the 21 RBs whose BMI puts them in the "not small" group:
40 - 4.47
Vertical - 35.75"
Broad Jump - 10'2"
The most significant difference between the two "small" groups and the two "not small" groups is the 40 time. The jumps are marginally better for the small backs, but the difference is minimal. However, the 40 times are over a full tenth faster on average. What this means is that "small" backs (either according to weight or body thickness) need to run REALLY fast to get picked in the 1st round.
Overall, the numbers corroborate a lot of what I said. For a "not small" RB (one with a 29+ BMI and/or a weight of 210+ pounds) to get picked in the first round, he probably needs to be within shouting distance of a 4.47 40, a 35.5" vertical, and a 10'2" broad jump. Anything that's more than .05 slower in the 40, 2" shorter in the vertical, and 4" shorter in the broad jump starts to look like a dealbreaker unless he's absolutely exceptional in one of the other drills (i.e. Mendy and Ronnie bombing in the jumps, but running insanely fast for their size). If you're a "small" RB (sub 29 BMI and/or sub 210 pound), you want to be in the same ballpark in the jumps and you probably also need to clock at least a 4.3X to expect a first round draft slot.
Apply these restrictions to the 2014 and 2013 draft classes. You'll see pretty quickly why there isn't a first round talent in either. Knile Davis and Christine Michael basically fit the physical profile, but they had glaring production/injury issues. The other top backs didn't test well enough. This year, Hyde and Hill are nowhere near hitting the right marks. The guys who tested well (Sankey, Seastrunk, and Mason) are all below 210 pounds without the requisite speed for that size.
Charles Sims, Terrance West, Jerick McKinnon, and Andre Williams kind of fit the mold from a measurables standpoint, but then nobody has ever argued that those players are first round talents. This is very much a "necessary, but not sufficient thing." In other words, "you must be this athletic to be a first round back, but being this athletic doesn't guarantee that you'll be a first round back."
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http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46541/311/tate-to-browns-gerhart-to-jax?pg=2
This shows people shouldn't be as optimistic on Gerhart.
A few key points:
-When he plays in more than half of the snaps in a game his YPC is 4.18 vs 4.7 career.
-The vikings had a top 6 run blocking OL from 2010-2013.
- The Jaguars finished 32nd in run blocking in 2013
This shows people shouldn't be as optimistic on Gerhart.
A few key points:
-When he plays in more than half of the snaps in a game his YPC is 4.18 vs 4.7 career.
-The vikings had a top 6 run blocking OL from 2010-2013.
- The Jaguars finished 32nd in run blocking in 2013
John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
Any idea how they rank OL run blocking? That seems high to me. I watch the Vikings pretty regularly being a homer and a Peterson owner since his rookie year. Over the last few years I can remember thinking that Peterson had great games despite his line. It seemed like he'd get hit in the backfield often and get most of his yardage by breaking tackles and getting long runs here and there...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I didn't read the article yet, so I'm not sure what they are basing the rankings on - but perhaps the Vikings run blocking "stats" are inflatd by the fact that the team has two very good running backs. It's kind of a chicken and egg thing.
ETA: I read it now and its based on PFF's rankings - don't know (or care based on other rankings I've seen by them) how they compute their run blocking stats - but once again they may be inflated by the fact the Peterson (mostly) and Gerhart are the runners that they are clearing the way for.
Rotoworld is fine as a news source but I find their analysis biased and lazy for the most part. I don't thin Gerhart is any dynamic running back, but calling him a "plodder", a pretty typical of Rotoworld insult, is not very creative or accurate.
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Profootball focus is the measuring stick, they don't care about the RB if I recall correctly.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
John 14:6
Jesus is Lord!
Yeah, I'm very skeptical of their ranking of the Viking oline here...
biju
Footballguy
I only know this because I follow the Seahawks, but they were convinced he was horrible in 2010. Rotoworld is pretty terrible for analysis and "efficient" with getting news out quickly.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
There is a chicken and egg thing going on here. I'm guessing that the Lions lines back when Barry Sanders was carving up the record book got graded a lot higher than they actually deserved. Having a first ballot HOFer running behind you makes it a little easier to be a top run blocking line.
And ROFL at Gerhart getting ripped for his YPC being only 4.18 when he gets a ton of carries.
The Jags may be a mess, but they have three pretty good WR's in Blackmon, Shorts, and Ace Sanders. Those guys like to go deep which will leave room for Gerhart to run...
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Gerhardt had a better college track record than any RB in this year's draft, was a 2nd round pick himself who was traded up for, and has a starting job mostly locked up. He has the ability to pound the ball, catch passes, and pass protect.
And he's been waiting for this chance for several years now.
I don't think the Jags offense will score enough to let him be a RB1, but he's a safe bet as a reliable RB2. And in a year with a poor set of RBs in the draft, his value is going to continue to go up.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Haven't seen too many startup drafts post-free agency yet, but if this is where his market value is then I'd buy all day:
http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2014/options?L=75688&O=17
141st overall and RB44. Crazy cheap for a guy who would currently project as a three down opening day starter.
Even if you don't like him at all, his opportunity alone is probably worth a top 25-30 RB spot.
There are a lot of ways his season can go, but I think maybe people underestimate how valuable even a bad starter can be with a large opportunity. Moreno, Bell, and Stacy probably won a lot of people money last year. There's a chance that Gerhart will be one of those guys next season. For a price around RB35-40, there's massive upside and really not that much risk. Not many guys in that range are going to offer you immediate top 15-20 ppg potential.
http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2014/options?L=75688&O=17
141st overall and RB44. Crazy cheap for a guy who would currently project as a three down opening day starter.
Even if you don't like him at all, his opportunity alone is probably worth a top 25-30 RB spot.
There are a lot of ways his season can go, but I think maybe people underestimate how valuable even a bad starter can be with a large opportunity. Moreno, Bell, and Stacy probably won a lot of people money last year. There's a chance that Gerhart will be one of those guys next season. For a price around RB35-40, there's massive upside and really not that much risk. Not many guys in that range are going to offer you immediate top 15-20 ppg potential.
Webbstar842
Footballguy
Bradley said Tuesday at the NFL owners meetings that Gerhart can be a three-down back.
"He has the ability to play all three downs," Bradley said. "How many carries he gets ... we would like to run the ball over 40 percent of the time. There might be 28-30 carries in a game, and there aren't more running backs that carry more than 20 times a game. If he's a guy that is carrying it 15-16 times and with third down reps, 18 times. That's feasible. A strong possibility."
Money
"He has the ability to play all three downs," Bradley said. "How many carries he gets ... we would like to run the ball over 40 percent of the time. There might be 28-30 carries in a game, and there aren't more running backs that carry more than 20 times a game. If he's a guy that is carrying it 15-16 times and with third down reps, 18 times. That's feasible. A strong possibility."
Money
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
In my PPR dynasty league (.5/1.0/1.5), RB18 each of the last 2 years was right in the 160-165 point range.
RB12 has been around 180
RB24 has been around 135.
Those rankings are always based on weeks 1-16, which means it's over 15 games, not 16
With the news that they expect Gerhardt to get 15-18 carries per week plus a few catches, that gives me a pretty good estimation of where he should end up, even if I use the low end of touches and a modest YPC
15 carries per game x 15 games = 225 caries @ 4 ypc = 900 yards
2.5 catches per game x 15 games = 38 catches @ 7 ypc = 266 yards
Give him a very reasonable 6 total TDs
Could he exceed those numbers? Sure, but I consider them to be relatively conservative.
117 points on yardage, 36 points on TDs, and 19 points on receptions ALREADY gives him 172 points, or a strong RB2. Drop the YPC down to a lowly 3.5 and he's STILL in the mid-range RB2 range. That volume of touches alone will make him an every week starter at a position where it's very difficult to find them, and the only reasons I can see for doubting it is if you think he'll get injured, the Jags will bring in someone else (which I consider unlikely) or if you think Todman or Robinson will overtake him (which I consider even more unlikely).
People are really going to miss the boat on this guy if they don't pay attention.
RB12 has been around 180
RB24 has been around 135.
Those rankings are always based on weeks 1-16, which means it's over 15 games, not 16
With the news that they expect Gerhardt to get 15-18 carries per week plus a few catches, that gives me a pretty good estimation of where he should end up, even if I use the low end of touches and a modest YPC
15 carries per game x 15 games = 225 caries @ 4 ypc = 900 yards
2.5 catches per game x 15 games = 38 catches @ 7 ypc = 266 yards
Give him a very reasonable 6 total TDs
Could he exceed those numbers? Sure, but I consider them to be relatively conservative.
117 points on yardage, 36 points on TDs, and 19 points on receptions ALREADY gives him 172 points, or a strong RB2. Drop the YPC down to a lowly 3.5 and he's STILL in the mid-range RB2 range. That volume of touches alone will make him an every week starter at a position where it's very difficult to find them, and the only reasons I can see for doubting it is if you think he'll get injured, the Jags will bring in someone else (which I consider unlikely) or if you think Todman or Robinson will overtake him (which I consider even more unlikely).
People are really going to miss the boat on this guy if they don't pay attention.
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This. Gerhart has had the thankless job of being compared to one of the all time greats in his short career. I don't think he's a stud, but you can get him for beer money and he has at least a good a shot at putting up RB2 numbers as anyone, given his skill set and situation. This is a holding year for the Jags, theyre gonna be happy to feed Gerhart while they groom a rookie QB. Lots of dump off passes seem likely for PPR folks. He's not gonna win you a championship but his value is awesome right now due entirely to his likely low cost.
az_prof
Footballguy
http://members.jacksonville.com/sports/2014-04-26/story/gene-frenette-jaguars-rb-toby-gerhart-believes-hes-ready-starting-role?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+jacksonville%2
"Gene Frenette: Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart believes he's ready for starting roleSat, Apr 26, 2014 @ 9:00 pm | updated Sat, Apr 26, 2014 @ 9:11 pm
It’s understandable why Jaguars fans might look at the man projected as Maurice Jones-Drew’s replacement with a bit of skepticism. And not because he’s an NFL rarity as a white running back.
Toby Gerhart had long ago stiff-armed that stereotype, so that’s not the real issue for the Jaguars’ $10.5 million free-agent acquisition.
No, any uncertainty attached to Gerhart has to do with being a part-timer for four NFL seasons. That happens when above him on the Minnesota Vikings depth chart was Adrian Peterson, a superstar who endures one of the heaviest workloads of any feature back.
So Gerhart comes to the Jaguars as an unproven commodity, trying to replace a legend in Jones-Drew, who followed a bigger legend in Fred Taylor.
But upon closer examination of Gerhart’s resume, I’m not sure this will go down as a huge risk in general manager Dave Caldwell’s career.
“I had the skill set to be a [NFL] starter from the onset, but I was playing behind one of the best in the game,” Gerhart said of Peterson. “I’ve gotten comfortable with the speed of the game, but don’t have the wear and tear on my body of someone carrying it 250 times a year.
“I think I’m in a unique situation. Even though it’s my fifth year in the league, I can come in and be a dominant guy. I’m ready for my shot now.”
Are you still skeptical? Well, before you dismiss Gerhart’s chances of being a worthy Jones-Drew replacement, understand that nothing about this 6-foot, 231-pound California native screams out “underachiever.”
He was valedictorian of his class at Norco High, and before that distinction, he was named California’s Mr. Football after rushing for a state-record 9,662 yards. Only seven backs in the country have eclipsed that total, including Alabama’s Derrick Henry setting the national record (12,144 yards) when he was at Yulee.
At Stanford, now one of the nation’s elite programs, Gerhart was instrumental in the Cardinal’s pivotal turnaround season in 2009, rushing for a nation-high 1,871 yards and 28 touchdowns. He lost the Heisman Trophy to Alabama’s Mark Ingram by the smallest margin (28 points) ever.
In a culture where the Jaguars are looking to shed a recent history of losing, Gerhart’s history indicates you can do a lot worse than put the ball in his hands. South Florida head coach Willie Taggert, who was Gerhart’s running back coach for three years at Stanford, believes he can elevate the Jaguars like he did for the Cardinal when the San Francisco 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh was the boss.
“[Gerhart] was huge in what Harbaugh was trying to accomplish there,” said Taggert. “He wanted the mentality of a physical running game, and Toby was the epitome of that. Toby’s junior year set the tone for the Stanford program you see today.
“Everyone thinks it was just Toby running over people, but he made guys miss, too. He was fun to coach because he wanted to know what everyone was doing. He was infatuated with offensive line play. He’s the real deal. You don’t see many white running backs in the NFL, but he’s going to be a trendsetter.”
Gerhart is no Jones-Drew, at least not from a personality standpoint. He’s more quiet and reserved, but isn’t shying away from his first entrance into the NFL spotlight. He fully embraces the challenge.
“There’s definitely pressure,” said Gerhart. “Maurice was a staple here and a great running back. Trying to come in his footsteps and his shadow is difficult. But I’m fired up about the chance to go out there and start.”
In most instances, proven NFL running backs tend to establish themselves long before their fifth season. Gerhart had a season-high 109 carries for 531 yards in 2011, when he started four games for the injured Peterson. That’s his biggest NFL workload. The Jaguars are banking on his production not trailing off if Gerhart gets into the 240- to 300-carry range.
“When you watch plays he was involved in, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry [in the NFL],” said Caldwell. “I scouted him a lot coming out of college and had a really good understanding of him. I think he can be a really good fit for us on first and second down, in pass protection and catching the ball out of the backfield.”
From Caldwell’s perspective, any intrigue about Gerhart isn’t his skin color. It’s what he’s done his whole life when given the chance to be a feature back.
Caldwell doesn’t look at the 27-year-old Gerhart and see Danny Woodhead or Peyton Hillis, among the few modestly productive white running backs in recent NFL seasons. He more likely visualizes Michael Turner, who rushed for 6,081 yards in five seasons (2008-12) during Caldwell’s time in the Atlanta Falcons’ front office.
Like Gerhart, Turner spent his first four seasons as a backup, playing behind San Diego Chargers star back LaDanian Tomlinson, then blossomed from ages 26-30, when he became Atlanta’s primary ballcarrier.
“I didn’t even think about [Gerhart being white],” said Caldwell. “You can’t even tell that on film anyway. Just watching him, he’s a gifted athlete. He’s a great pro — smart, tough and intelligent. You talk to anybody wherever he’s been. He handles his business and raises the level of expectations of everybody around him.”
Caldwell isn’t giving Gerhart $4.5 million in guaranteed money to be generous. His instincts tell him Jones-Drew’s likely successor, who has heard the nickname “White Rhino” on a few occasions, will run with this chance.
Gerhart is a punishing back with respectable speed (4.53 seconds in the 40-yard dash). He admits he has to work on turning 5-yard runs into the 10- to 15-yard variety, which was a Jones-Drew specialty. All he asks is to be judged by his results.
“There’s definitely a stereotype about [being a white running back],” Gerhart said. “I was a running back all four years of high school, then some people talked about me becoming a linebacker or fullback. I think I’ve proven I can play running back.
“There’s going to be added pressure to prove yourself as a starter in the NFL, but I’m ready to show what I can do.”
There were still reminders of Gerhart’s past when he arrived Wednesday at EverBank Field. He had a pair of Vikings shoulder pads in his locker, waiting for a replacement set.
Gerhart wore number 32 in Minnesota, the same as Jones-Drew, but will wear No. 21 with the Jaguars. Now if he can approach the numbers Jones-Drew put up on the field, then Gerhart can escape from being in anyone’s shadow.
Gene Frenette: (904) 359-4540"
"Gene Frenette: Jaguars RB Toby Gerhart believes he's ready for starting roleSat, Apr 26, 2014 @ 9:00 pm | updated Sat, Apr 26, 2014 @ 9:11 pm
It’s understandable why Jaguars fans might look at the man projected as Maurice Jones-Drew’s replacement with a bit of skepticism. And not because he’s an NFL rarity as a white running back.
Toby Gerhart had long ago stiff-armed that stereotype, so that’s not the real issue for the Jaguars’ $10.5 million free-agent acquisition.
No, any uncertainty attached to Gerhart has to do with being a part-timer for four NFL seasons. That happens when above him on the Minnesota Vikings depth chart was Adrian Peterson, a superstar who endures one of the heaviest workloads of any feature back.
So Gerhart comes to the Jaguars as an unproven commodity, trying to replace a legend in Jones-Drew, who followed a bigger legend in Fred Taylor.
But upon closer examination of Gerhart’s resume, I’m not sure this will go down as a huge risk in general manager Dave Caldwell’s career.
“I had the skill set to be a [NFL] starter from the onset, but I was playing behind one of the best in the game,” Gerhart said of Peterson. “I’ve gotten comfortable with the speed of the game, but don’t have the wear and tear on my body of someone carrying it 250 times a year.
“I think I’m in a unique situation. Even though it’s my fifth year in the league, I can come in and be a dominant guy. I’m ready for my shot now.”
Are you still skeptical? Well, before you dismiss Gerhart’s chances of being a worthy Jones-Drew replacement, understand that nothing about this 6-foot, 231-pound California native screams out “underachiever.”
He was valedictorian of his class at Norco High, and before that distinction, he was named California’s Mr. Football after rushing for a state-record 9,662 yards. Only seven backs in the country have eclipsed that total, including Alabama’s Derrick Henry setting the national record (12,144 yards) when he was at Yulee.
At Stanford, now one of the nation’s elite programs, Gerhart was instrumental in the Cardinal’s pivotal turnaround season in 2009, rushing for a nation-high 1,871 yards and 28 touchdowns. He lost the Heisman Trophy to Alabama’s Mark Ingram by the smallest margin (28 points) ever.
In a culture where the Jaguars are looking to shed a recent history of losing, Gerhart’s history indicates you can do a lot worse than put the ball in his hands. South Florida head coach Willie Taggert, who was Gerhart’s running back coach for three years at Stanford, believes he can elevate the Jaguars like he did for the Cardinal when the San Francisco 49ers’ Jim Harbaugh was the boss.
“[Gerhart] was huge in what Harbaugh was trying to accomplish there,” said Taggert. “He wanted the mentality of a physical running game, and Toby was the epitome of that. Toby’s junior year set the tone for the Stanford program you see today.
“Everyone thinks it was just Toby running over people, but he made guys miss, too. He was fun to coach because he wanted to know what everyone was doing. He was infatuated with offensive line play. He’s the real deal. You don’t see many white running backs in the NFL, but he’s going to be a trendsetter.”
Gerhart is no Jones-Drew, at least not from a personality standpoint. He’s more quiet and reserved, but isn’t shying away from his first entrance into the NFL spotlight. He fully embraces the challenge.
“There’s definitely pressure,” said Gerhart. “Maurice was a staple here and a great running back. Trying to come in his footsteps and his shadow is difficult. But I’m fired up about the chance to go out there and start.”
In most instances, proven NFL running backs tend to establish themselves long before their fifth season. Gerhart had a season-high 109 carries for 531 yards in 2011, when he started four games for the injured Peterson. That’s his biggest NFL workload. The Jaguars are banking on his production not trailing off if Gerhart gets into the 240- to 300-carry range.
“When you watch plays he was involved in, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry [in the NFL],” said Caldwell. “I scouted him a lot coming out of college and had a really good understanding of him. I think he can be a really good fit for us on first and second down, in pass protection and catching the ball out of the backfield.”
From Caldwell’s perspective, any intrigue about Gerhart isn’t his skin color. It’s what he’s done his whole life when given the chance to be a feature back.
Caldwell doesn’t look at the 27-year-old Gerhart and see Danny Woodhead or Peyton Hillis, among the few modestly productive white running backs in recent NFL seasons. He more likely visualizes Michael Turner, who rushed for 6,081 yards in five seasons (2008-12) during Caldwell’s time in the Atlanta Falcons’ front office.
Like Gerhart, Turner spent his first four seasons as a backup, playing behind San Diego Chargers star back LaDanian Tomlinson, then blossomed from ages 26-30, when he became Atlanta’s primary ballcarrier.
“I didn’t even think about [Gerhart being white],” said Caldwell. “You can’t even tell that on film anyway. Just watching him, he’s a gifted athlete. He’s a great pro — smart, tough and intelligent. You talk to anybody wherever he’s been. He handles his business and raises the level of expectations of everybody around him.”
Caldwell isn’t giving Gerhart $4.5 million in guaranteed money to be generous. His instincts tell him Jones-Drew’s likely successor, who has heard the nickname “White Rhino” on a few occasions, will run with this chance.
Gerhart is a punishing back with respectable speed (4.53 seconds in the 40-yard dash). He admits he has to work on turning 5-yard runs into the 10- to 15-yard variety, which was a Jones-Drew specialty. All he asks is to be judged by his results.
“There’s definitely a stereotype about [being a white running back],” Gerhart said. “I was a running back all four years of high school, then some people talked about me becoming a linebacker or fullback. I think I’ve proven I can play running back.
“There’s going to be added pressure to prove yourself as a starter in the NFL, but I’m ready to show what I can do.”
There were still reminders of Gerhart’s past when he arrived Wednesday at EverBank Field. He had a pair of Vikings shoulder pads in his locker, waiting for a replacement set.
Gerhart wore number 32 in Minnesota, the same as Jones-Drew, but will wear No. 21 with the Jaguars. Now if he can approach the numbers Jones-Drew put up on the field, then Gerhart can escape from being in anyone’s shadow.
Gene Frenette: (904) 359-4540"
Honestly, I don't care how good he is. If he gets fed the ball 275+ times, he'll get his numbers (that 1030 yards if he averages 3.75 YPC). Add in some TDs and the fact that he can catch the ball (how much they use him in that capacity will remain to be seen), and he is a guy you get as a RB 3 performing as a RB2...some nice value.
The draft will reveal a lot (if they pick up a guy like Hyde he won't be more than a RB 4), but if they stand pat, he really is all they have.
The draft will reveal a lot (if they pick up a guy like Hyde he won't be more than a RB 4), but if they stand pat, he really is all they have.
duaneok66
Footballguy
buck naked
Footballguy
Jax does not pay a RB that kind of money to split time. They have a ton of other needs. They need starters, not backups. He is going to be a workhorse.
jurb26
Footballguy
A ton of other needs? Like what exactly? People keep saying this but it simply isn't true. Jack did a great job in FA this offseason. They made huge upgrades at Dline and also signed a decent G to help sure up the oline. With Joekel in his 2nd year he should take a step forward as well. Sure, they could upgrade positions still bit that could be said of every team in the league. The only glaring hole I see is at QB. Even that is debatable. Henne is a fine short term option but they need a QB for the future. Jack looks like a team that could easily go BPA. Maybe that player will be a RB in rounds 2 thru 4.
OrangeJulius
Footballguy
They didn't pay him that much. It wont cost them a lot to take a RB in the 3rd-5th rd. I think they will get another back in the draft.
That other RB may be more talented than him on day 1.
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duaneok66
Footballguy
correct - don't know where "that kind of money" comment is coming from. It was not a big contract. My guess is that Toby splits time with the freshman.
EBF
Footballguy
This is a good year if you need to dodge bullets at RB in the draft. None of the guys in this class are clearly and decisively more talented than Gerhart. I don't see Jax going for a Hill or Hyde given their similarity to Toby. Of the top few guys, only Sankey and Seastrunk provide a clear contrast.
I'd put the risk of him losing his job on draft day as very low. Maybe around 5-10%. 32 teams in the league. Maybe only 5-6 RBs in the draft with the talent to be top 100 picks (let alone clearly better from day one). What are the odds that Jacksonville drafts one of those guys AND he turns out to be so good immediately that he pushes Toby to the bench? Not that good. There is a minor risk, but I'm not that worried about it.
We saw that the FF pundit community already severely underrated Gerhart once (prior to his free agency). Rather than just admit that they got it wrong and underestimated his value, it's easier for their egos if they just keep making excuses about why he won't succeed. You can expect it to continue all the way into the season even if he's putting up numbers. I don't pay it any mind. He has already boomed in a big way based on his cost a few months back. There might be a little more of that in store yet.
I'd put the risk of him losing his job on draft day as very low. Maybe around 5-10%. 32 teams in the league. Maybe only 5-6 RBs in the draft with the talent to be top 100 picks (let alone clearly better from day one). What are the odds that Jacksonville drafts one of those guys AND he turns out to be so good immediately that he pushes Toby to the bench? Not that good. There is a minor risk, but I'm not that worried about it.
We saw that the FF pundit community already severely underrated Gerhart once (prior to his free agency). Rather than just admit that they got it wrong and underestimated his value, it's easier for their egos if they just keep making excuses about why he won't succeed. You can expect it to continue all the way into the season even if he's putting up numbers. I don't pay it any mind. He has already boomed in a big way based on his cost a few months back. There might be a little more of that in store yet.
jurb26
Footballguy
Yeah, a rookie doesn't have to be definitively better than him to plummet his fantasy value. He just needs to be good enough to force a time share/RBBC. There are several RBs capable of that in the draft.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
The Jags want to see what Denard Robinson can do as the change of pace back. I see them sticking to this instead of taking a RB with a mid-round pick. Of course, there's only one year of drafting to go off with the new regime and they might have already determined that Robinson isn't what they hoped he would be, but I don't think so. This bodes well for Gerhart's prospects this year, IMO.
buck naked
Footballguy
You don't even know who that player could be, yet both of you think its RBBC. "Plummet his fantasy value". LOLjurb26 said:
Every time I've WATCHED him play, he produces. I simply do not understand why people are so hesitant to accept that Gerhart just may be a good RB for this team. But that's ok, I could use the counterarguments rather than being locked into my opinion.
jurb26
Footballguy
We never claimed to know who it was or that it would even happen. We're simply talking about the notorious IF it were to happen.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Wouldn't surprise me if the Jags took a RB in this draft but I think if they took somebody it would be a receiving back to challenge Denard Robinson (not Gerhart) or somebody who is a big special teams contributor.
They have multiple 4th and 5th round picks and if they are going RB, that would be the neighborhood.
I don't think the draft should change how much you value Gerhart. Somebody is going to take a fraction away from him, we 're just not sure who.
They have multiple 4th and 5th round picks and if they are going RB, that would be the neighborhood.
I don't think the draft should change how much you value Gerhart. Somebody is going to take a fraction away from him, we 're just not sure who.
EBF
Footballguy
To think Toby is going to see his FF value crushed you'd have to believe that:
1. There are lots of backs in this draft capable of crushing his value (doubtful).
2. The Jaguars are likely to draft one of those backs (unlikely based on generic probability with 32 teams in the league).
3. The rookie back would be ready to come in and play a prominent role immediately (hardly a given).
Anything can happen, but it's far more likely than not that he emerges from the draft still looking like a good bet for at least 200-250 touches. I think the group of backs who make sense for the Jaguars in terms of needs/fit and who are good enough to potentially play in year one is limited to about 4-6 names (Freeman, Seastrunk, Sankey, McKinnon, Carey, Sims). Of that group, I'm not sure any can even match Gerhart's overall talent level. Even if you assume that it devolves into a Mendy/Ellington situation, Mendy finished as a top 30 RB in most formats last year despite being one of the absolute worst backs in the NFL according to just about any performance metric. So even if the Jags draft a more talented COOP back and Gerhart absolutely stinks up the joint, he STILL might produce only slightly below where his current redraft/dynasty ADP values him. Just shows what a good value he represents at the moment.
Based on what's out there right now, he'd be my go-to RB2 short term value play in a dynasty or redraft picking tomorrow.
1. There are lots of backs in this draft capable of crushing his value (doubtful).
2. The Jaguars are likely to draft one of those backs (unlikely based on generic probability with 32 teams in the league).
3. The rookie back would be ready to come in and play a prominent role immediately (hardly a given).
Anything can happen, but it's far more likely than not that he emerges from the draft still looking like a good bet for at least 200-250 touches. I think the group of backs who make sense for the Jaguars in terms of needs/fit and who are good enough to potentially play in year one is limited to about 4-6 names (Freeman, Seastrunk, Sankey, McKinnon, Carey, Sims). Of that group, I'm not sure any can even match Gerhart's overall talent level. Even if you assume that it devolves into a Mendy/Ellington situation, Mendy finished as a top 30 RB in most formats last year despite being one of the absolute worst backs in the NFL according to just about any performance metric. So even if the Jags draft a more talented COOP back and Gerhart absolutely stinks up the joint, he STILL might produce only slightly below where his current redraft/dynasty ADP values him. Just shows what a good value he represents at the moment.
Based on what's out there right now, he'd be my go-to RB2 short term value play in a dynasty or redraft picking tomorrow.
jurb26
Footballguy
I think there are at least 5 RBs in this draft that could greatly hurt his value, possibly more. Define lots? In the end, it doesn't matter how many there are in this draft. All that matters is if one ends up in Jack. In this hypothetical we are assuming that to be the case, no? Which brings us to point 2. I have no idea how likely it is to happen and I don't recall anyone stating they knew, either. We are simply talking about the hypothetical. Saying the guy drafted would have to be demonstrably better than Gerhart to greatly hurt him just isn't true. The guy just needs to be good enough to steal touches. Gerharts value seems to be in line with that of Mendenhall last year right now. His value is greatly tied to the fact that he is going to be a bell cow RB and a safe bet to see 300+ touches. Most don't think he will be very efficient with those touches. So, if he loses a meat 50 of those touches to a rookie RB, his value is going to take a significant drop. In short, the majority opinion seems to be that Gerhart will be a compiler this season. When compilers lose touches their value typical plummets.
The last point doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Nobody is saying a rookie is going to come in and take his job. That's possible, sure. It's. It the point at all though. The point is that the guy simply needs to be ready to come in and steal a decent amount of the touches away.
The fact of the matter is I and many other don't see Gerhart as a super talent in the NFL. So him fighting off a promising rookie should, Jack bring one in, creates a great deal of doubt. I don't think he's demonstrably better than several RBs in this class and that is the problem. If you do, then have at and enjoy the ride.
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