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Toby Gerhart (1 Viewer)
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Csonka4life
Footballguy
He has had one knee injury. Why play for free and get hurt and then be forced to play fullback. He will be hybrid tailback/fullback. I don't know what team will draft him. There is no team that will draft him to be the equivalent of a defensive catcher in baseball.BusterTBronco said:
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Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
How often does the Heisman runner-up win the Heisman the following year?I'd gladly take a million dollar payday over a ~10% chance of playing in the Rose Bowl.BusterTBronco said:
Without Arkansas getting Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, we might have seen similar college production from Peyton Hillis. He was outstanding as a freshman and then relegated to lesser roles. Although he is still athletic and an exceptional receiving option.
coolnerd
Footballguy
From a fantasy investment idea, Hillis would provide the worst type of scernerio for Gerhart. Hillis has flashed ability to carry the ball and catch out of the backfield, but when evaluated by Denver's new administration they thought a better option was to sign a gazillion veteran guys and draft a RB in the first round.
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rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
Stanford is far from a lock to go to the Rose Bowl and he is a long shot against the field to win the Heisman (Ingram is returning). Why would he come back for a fifth year, risk an injury or a less productive season, and lose a full year of earning.Frankly, I find your post a lot dumber than Toby's decision.BusterTBronco said:
jwb
Footballguy
1) When you're really good at something, you generally want to go where the best reside. He scored 28 td's, was second in the Heisman, etc - there's really nothing left to prove on the college level. 2) If he gets hurt, he loses a ton of money. Can't fault him for leaving at all. He's not throwing anything away.BusterTBronco said:
He's not even really leaving early. He's been in college 4 years, it's beyond moronic to stay a 5th year after the year he had. there is ZERO upside for him to do so for his long term future.And for any of the "he should get his degree" screamers Toby will have his degree before the NFL draft.BusterTBronco said:
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Chase Stuart
Footballguy
When you're good at something, you don't give it away for free.
EBF
Footballguy
2nd or 3rd round sounds about right.
Situation will be especially important for Toby. He should be effective in a potent offense that has enough additional playmakers to keep opposing defenses from keying on him (HOU, SD, NYG). He will not be effective if he finds himself on a poor team that expects him to shoulder the full workload (CLE, WAS, TB).
That's not saying anything earth-shattering. Most will players will do better on a good team than they will on a bad one. I just think Toby's style makes him more vulnerable to a weak situation than some of the less blocking-dependent backs like Jahvid Best and CJ Spiller.
Situation will be especially important for Toby. He should be effective in a potent offense that has enough additional playmakers to keep opposing defenses from keying on him (HOU, SD, NYG). He will not be effective if he finds himself on a poor team that expects him to shoulder the full workload (CLE, WAS, TB).
That's not saying anything earth-shattering. Most will players will do better on a good team than they will on a bad one. I just think Toby's style makes him more vulnerable to a weak situation than some of the less blocking-dependent backs like Jahvid Best and CJ Spiller.
Xue
Footballguy
Jacob Hester 2.0?
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Interesting thought here, but I have a question for you. Best and Spiller are fast players and will be facing faster NFL defenders. Getting outside or into the second level won't be as easy. Both of these players performed on teams with spread offenses and solid teammates at skill positions. This means their line splits were often bigger, generating bigger holes. On the other hand, Gerhart primarily ran from an I formation set with smaller line splits and eight and nine-men fronts opposing him with a freshman (albeit a good one) QB. It is important to note I'm watching him again right now against USC, and just saw him make an excellent pre-snap read from the spread on 3rd and 9 where he saw the LB sneak to the right end showing blitz off that edge. He used that read to bend the run from LG to the right flat as soon as he cleared the line of scrimmage, running across the face of the MLB and using his speed (yes, speed) to beat him to the edge. I have watched a number of 225-plus-pound backs try to run from the spread and I haven't seen that type of speed from that many of them. It leads to this question: Why do you think it will be harder for a powerful back with speed to be productive with a poor line than a back with world class speed but not a lot of power? I can see how this might be the case when a defense gets strong penetration into the backfield and an agile back can make a move to avoid the first defender and get positive yardage. However, what about the more frequent situation where the RB gets to the line untouched but the hole just isn't there? I would think a back like Gerhart will be more adept at creating yardage because he has the power and speed to run through defenders or over his own linemen at the point of attack and create 3-5 yards in a situation where a shiftier/speedier runner gets 1-2 yards nine times out of ten and maybe makes a great reversal of field once for a 10-15 yard gain. Hopefully you have a good answer to debate this with me because I'm looking for a counterpoint I haven't thought of to this and it will help me formulate an opinion about this kind of situation when comparing runners. I may post this elsewhere too.
EBF
Footballguy
I think you nailed it in the bolded portion. I have seen Toby play many times in his career, including 3 or 4 games in person. He's a good back. Much more nimble and shifty behind the line of scrimmage than he's given credit for. At the same time, the Sun Bowl against Oklahoma demonstrated that he can be bottled up by an athletic defense determined to stop him. He had one or two good runs in that game, but was mostly held in check and rendered ineffective. I think quickness trumps power when there's no hole. A guy like Jahvid Best can create big plays out of thin air, but Toby relies on a good line to open that initial lane. If it's not there, he's not going to make anyone miss. Moreover, you can't split him out wide like you can with Spiller and Best. They're more versatile. Toby's value is more narrow.
Regarding the supporting cast, Andrew Luck is considered by some to be the best NFL QB prospect in all of college football. Chris Owusu is an NFL prospect as a KR/WR. Ryan Whalen is a good possession WR. Jim Dray is a good blocking TE who could play on Sundays. Every starting OL for Stanford earned some form of All-Conference honors. OG David DeCastro is considered a high end NFL prospect. Toby's supporting cast was actually very good. That's one of the secrets that the national media isn't aware of when they predict a dropoff for Stanford's offense next season. There won't be one. They're loaded and almost all of the talent is returning.
I would say Stanford has more offensive talent than teams like Cal, Clemson, and Fresno State. Part of the reason why Toby was successful is because teams had to respect Luck. When that threat was absent in the Sun Bowl, Toby struggled.
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Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Good point. You forgot Stanford's great FB, too
Luck will have a strong chance to be very good NFL prospect. However, I know a lot thought Snead was a big-time prospect after six games of his junior year and he has moments where I think I'd lump him with Josh McCown...I just don't know if I buy that "out of thin air" component. Reggie Bush could create runs out of thin air at USC and he struggled most of the time while backs like Mike Bell (undrafted), Pierre Thomas (7th round), and Lynell Hamilton (undrafted) seemed to be more productive up the middle because they would lower the shoulder and take what was given rather than try to elude three and four players. Maroney has had the same problem at times in his career.Then again, Jerome Harrison looked pretty good where Jamal Lewis didn't. Jamaal Charles looked great where Larry Johnson didn't. Chris Johnson/Lendale White.
Then there's LeSean McCoy/Leonard Weaver (I'd say Weaver was better this year), Everyone else/Steve Slaton, Reshard Mendenhall/Willie Parker. Could these examples be an argument against that thought?
EBF
Footballguy
Oh yea, I forgot about Owen Marecic. That guy is such a beast. He just attacks people and completely takes them out of the play.
Snead doesn't have good intangibles for the position. He's another Charlie Whitehurst or Kyle Boller. Physical specimen with no game sense. Luck seemingly has the "it" factor that those guys lacked.
As for Toby, I maintain that he would be much more effective on a team where he wouldn't be asked to carry the offense on his back. I would love to see him on a team like HOU, NYG, or GB.
Snead doesn't have good intangibles for the position. He's another Charlie Whitehurst or Kyle Boller. Physical specimen with no game sense. Luck seemingly has the "it" factor that those guys lacked.
As for Toby, I maintain that he would be much more effective on a team where he wouldn't be asked to carry the offense on his back. I would love to see him on a team like HOU, NYG, or GB.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Actually, I'd argue Snead shows some very enticing instincts in the pocket when it comes to sliding to find passing lanes. He might be as good as any college QB right now when it comes to dipping the shoulder away from pressure or sliding one direction or the other while keeping his eyes down field.
What he does poorly is throw the ball on the move or move those eyes to a different receiver down field. He's very impatient to get rid of the ball quickly to that primary guy and is willing to force it. What I see is a player who needs to work harder at his craft because his issues are more about lacking the repetition to hone his game both mentally (reading defenses) and fundamentally (throwing off the correct foot on the move). What he does to get free in the pocket is very instinctive (and good).
Whether that issue has to do with him not working hard enough or just lacking the ability to grasp things without a lot of work is something I'm sure an unfortunate team will find out if they take him and he doesn't change his approach.
I agree Gerhart will make a great committee back. What aids him is how good of a pass blocker he is...hopefully I have that OU-Stanford game. I'm looking forward to seeing it.
What he does poorly is throw the ball on the move or move those eyes to a different receiver down field. He's very impatient to get rid of the ball quickly to that primary guy and is willing to force it. What I see is a player who needs to work harder at his craft because his issues are more about lacking the repetition to hone his game both mentally (reading defenses) and fundamentally (throwing off the correct foot on the move). What he does to get free in the pocket is very instinctive (and good).
Whether that issue has to do with him not working hard enough or just lacking the ability to grasp things without a lot of work is something I'm sure an unfortunate team will find out if they take him and he doesn't change his approach.
I agree Gerhart will make a great committee back. What aids him is how good of a pass blocker he is...hopefully I have that OU-Stanford game. I'm looking forward to seeing it.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
One thing I don't like about Gerhart as I watch more of him is his pad level. He naturally runs very upright and there were a number of plays against USC (in the game I'm wrapping up right now) where LB's knocked him backwards at the point of attack because they had an easier time getting lower at the point of the collision. The short yardage situations where this happened reminded me a lot of Titans-Texans back Chris Brown, who initially struggled as a short yardage back in Tennessee and was more known for big runs (and getting hurt) than the little ones that were equally important.
What will probably earn him opportunities early in the NFL is his pass blocking.
What will probably earn him opportunities early in the NFL is his pass blocking.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Isn't he about the same size as Peyton Hillis? If Hillis were given the ball, he could be a very good NFL RB, and his pass catching ability is very very good 
In 2007, just 13 of the top 100 rushers in the Football Bowl Subdivision were BLACK. The SEC and Pac-10 each have just one BLACK starting tailback in their respective leagues,.In the NFL, BLACK tailbacks are even scarcer. Not one BLACK player starts at tailback on any of the NFL's 32 teams. The last time a BLACK tailback was taken in the first round of the NFL draft was 1974.quote]
if the above were true, there would be so much talk about racism that it wouldn't even be funny ......... yet because its WHITE instead of BLACK its all good isn't it ?
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
Assuming you're not fishing or race-baiting, I will explain why you are mistaken.The reason there are no cries of "racism" over white RBs is because there is virtually zero evidence that white RBs are being deliberately suppressed. If, for example, you could provide statistical evidence that white RBs were actually more successful in college than their black counterparts, then you could make a legit claim of racism in the NFL.if the above were true, there would be so much talk about racism that it wouldn't even be funny ......... yet because its WHITE instead of BLACK its all good isn't it ?
But you don't see white RBs dominating major college football, do you? Do you see white RBs going to Canada and dominating the CFL after the NFL refuses to give them a shot? No.
The same would apply if black RBs were the minority. If black college RBs had decidedly inferior stats, then NO ONE would cry racism.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
no baiting, I didn't bring it up, I was expanding on it is all. i would like to think race isn't an issue at all, and equally I'd like to think reverse racism isn't either
Player Pos Cl Gm Carries Net TDs Avg Ydspgm
Toby Gerhart, Stanford RB SR 13 343 1871 28 5.45 143.92
Mark Ingram, Alabama RB SO 14 271 1658 17 6.12 118.43
Gerhart http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?...74&player=7
Ingram http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?...8&player=22
let me try ...... using the below stats, explain why Ingram is projected the 1st RB in the draft and Gerhart a 3rd rounder fullback maybe? Production isn't it, durability isn't the reason ........ stat's don't lie, but we all know I think Gerhart isn't going to be an ALLSTAR RB in the NFL. Look at the Hillis comparison I made. He ran GREAT before injury in 2008, and in 2009 wasn't given a chance. Why? Nobody knows why, but we DO know the stat lines when he is given a chance don't we?
Player Pos Cl Gm Carries Net TDs Avg Ydspgm
Toby Gerhart, Stanford RB SR 13 343 1871 28 5.45 143.92
Mark Ingram, Alabama RB SO 14 271 1658 17 6.12 118.43
Gerhart http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?...74&player=7
Ingram http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/playerDetail.jsp?...8&player=22
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
NFL prospects are judged not only by their game stats, but also by other stats such as height, weight, speed, body fat, etc. Has Gerhart shown to be Ingram's equal athletically? Does Stanford have a history of producing better running backs than Alabama? All those factors contribute to a players draft status.That said.....Ingram's game stats are clearly superior to Gerhart's stats. Feed Ingram the ball as often as Stanford fed Gerhart, and Ingram easily tops 2000 rushing yards and 30 TDs.no baiting, I didn't bring it up, I was expanding on it is all. i would like to think race isn't an issue at all, and equally I'd like to think reverse racism isn't either
let me try ...... using the below stats, explain why Ingram is projected the 1st RB in the draft and Gerhart a 3rd rounder fullback maybe? Production isn't it, durability isn't the reason ........ stat's don't lie, but we all know I think Gerhart isn't going to be an ALLSTAR RB in the NFL.
How about a combination of: injuries, Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, and Hillis' 3.8 YPC in the preseason?Do you believe that if Hillis had dominated during preseason, the Broncos still would have stuck him on the bench?
Stealthycat
Footballguy
yes I do
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Has that ever happened? A white RB dominates preseason but then gets relegated to the bench, never to get a chance again?
CaptainHook
Footballguy
doesnt anyone remember the talk of converting matt jones (6'6, 4.3x 40 time, 40 inch vert) to a TE? LOL.
An anti-white bias when it comes to the RB/CB/WR positions is very obvious.
While I don't think its something that should or could be "fixed" its quite clearly present.
An anti-white bias when it comes to the RB/CB/WR positions is very obvious.
While I don't think its something that should or could be "fixed" its quite clearly present.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Danny Woodhead
Just playing. Woodhead did have a great preseason, but obviously Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Green are what kept him on the bench, not his complextion.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Is that the same Matt Jones that was converted to WR, not TE (and is there really much difference in the two positions anyway in today's NFL)?
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
The same Matt Jones who was already converted from a predominately white position to a predominately black position?
Csonka4life
Footballguy
White backs were always different. Virtually all star White backs were power backs who ran between the tackles for power. Since about the mid 80's the power back except for the rare exception has been a situational player. After watching Hillis play those games with Denver I have no doubt that he could have racked up a season as good or not better than Moreno.Mr. Retukes said:Assuming you're not fishing or race-baiting, I will explain why you are mistaken.The reason there are no cries of "racism" over white RBs is because there is virtually zero evidence that white RBs are being deliberately suppressed. If, for example, you could provide statistical evidence that white RBs were actually more successful in college than their black counterparts, then you could make a legit claim of racism in the NFL.Stealthycat said:if the above were true, there would be so much talk about racism that it wouldn't even be funny ......... yet because its WHITE instead of BLACK its all good isn't it ?
But you don't see white RBs dominating major college football, do you? Do you see white RBs going to Canada and dominating the CFL after the NFL refuses to give them a shot? No.
The same would apply if black RBs were the minority. If black college RBs had decidedly inferior stats, then NO ONE would cry racism.
CaptainHook
Footballguy
yes and yes
Travis Jervey?Danny WoodheadJust playing. Woodhead did have a great preseason, but obviously Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Green are what kept him on the bench, not his complextion.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Gerhart is in a class above these guys...John Riggins is a better comparison than these guys.Travis Jervey?Danny WoodheadJust playing. Woodhead did have a great preseason, but obviously Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Green are what kept him on the bench, not his complextion.
HOF for Gerhart?
5Rings
Lurker
I agree on the Riggo call. I don't see the folks comparing Toby to Alstott; Toby has far more speed, wiggle, and quick feet than Alstott and does not posess Alstott's power.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I just don't see the comparison.
I think he doesn't see the comparison...> Big Tex - what do you think of the Riggins comparison?
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
LAMO, my computer went crazy.To answer the question, nothing athletically nothing.I think he doesn't see the comparison...> Big Tex - what do you think of the Riggins comparison?
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Looks like he is going to Vikings who traded up to get him
He's got a cute girl.
Going to the Vikings won't help his fantasy value, though.
Going to the Vikings won't help his fantasy value, though.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Ya, right now he's a talented backup. You never know how a season turns out though. If something were to ever happen to ADP during the season, whether it was a 2 week sprain or something else, if this guy ended up the starter for a given week with no ADP in the lineup, he could be a top 10 RB for the week, stranger things have happened. Right now, he'd be unstartable in fantasy football.
Beetlejuice
Footballguy
Welcome to the fantasy black hole Mr. Gerhart. Going to be interesting to see how high he goes in any rookie draft. Really, short of an ADP injury (knock on wood ADP owners) Gerhart will have minimal fantasy value for ummm maybe ever.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
Not really. If he flashes greatness, he'll be traded off eventually or signed by another team for more money than Minny would be willing to give, look at Michael Turner. If he's not that good, then he deserves to be where he's at. What won't happen is somehow he's going to be this great RB and never get a shot in the NFL because he's behind ADP.
Beetlejuice
Footballguy
Ok, you be "that guy" who reaches for him in the first round of a dynasty draft and holds him for at least the next 3 years hoping for an ADP injury. Your Michael Turner example happened 4 years after he was drafted.Yes, he is in the fantasy black hole. Barring injury, he is likely at least a 3 year hold of very limited relevance occupying a roster spot- where you keep trying to trade him to the ADP owner for some sort of ridiculous ransom hoping he bites. And no, I'm not an ADP owner. A Vikings fan, and happy from an NFL perspective though.
