Today April 7th 2025 is being projected as "Black Monday" (1 Viewer)

[AAABatteries]

Another fundamental problem with the approach Trump has taken to the trade imbalances:

Using Vietnam as an example - In 2023, Vietnam's GDP per capita was recorded at $4,282 in current US dollars, according to the World Bank.

What rational US company wants to export goods to Vietnam? There is no financial reason to mass market US manufactured goods or even agriculture to a country that can't afford it - shipping alone would cost more than the US companies could hope to recoup, let alone profit from.



Vietnam should have a trade surplus with the US - and the US benefits from said surplus. Over the long-term, when Vietnam builds up its GDP via exports, it will be a more viable market. But for now, they are happy to reduce their own tariffs on US goods because they simply can't afford many in any scenario.

If you see my post above, Chinese companies set up factories in Vietnam so you need to tariff Vietnam for certain goods to make sure that China doesn't try to work around tariffs by going through Vietnam. Once China plays ball, then you can remove the Vietnam tariffs.

Is that scenario common or happening with any other countries?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We did hit 36,700 around 20 minutes ago, it's come up a little from that

38,700 at 10:20am
The other was 9:45am
35 minute spread, a 2,000 point turnaround, WOW!

37,550 at 10:30am
Almost 1,200 points down in 10 minutes

 

[Zeppelin]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

 

[Acrobat7]

This is all completely insane. The volatility, wow.

It's a vibe economy. No fundamentals, no security.

 

[HellToupee]

We did hit 36,700 around 20 minutes ago, it's come up a little from that

38,700 at 10:20am
The other was 9:45am
35 minute spread, a 2,000 point turnaround, WOW!

37,550 at 10:30am
Almost 1,200 points down in 10 minutes

Thanks posty

 

[GroveDiesel]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

Just my 2 cents, but stock market is based much more on perception than reality. Why is it bad is mostly that people who understand 5% of the facts of the situation are panicking because people who understand 10% of the situation are telling them to. That doesn’t mean this wasn’t a mistake. Doing anything that creates widespread unrest from investors is basically always bad even if the policy itself is fine.

I would agree that the stock market can be detached from reality, but typically it does a pretty good job of looking ahead.

I work for an engineering company. We’re already seeing belt tightening. Contractors are having to price in much higher materials costs for projects because they can’t afford to guess that the tariffs will be repealed. Clients are pausing or cancelling projects because all sorts of government funding sources have been paused or canceled.

So companies, municipalities, schools, etc are pausing or cancelling projects. Which means less work for all the contractors involved. Less work for the architects. Less work for the construction managers. Less work for the engineers. Less sales for the suppliers. Etc. So slowing in construction related industries seems to be a strong possibility.

It would also seem to make sense that retail sales will likely slow as well if prices have to be increased due to tariffs.

So I would posit that the decline in the stock market right now is pretty rational.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

Just my 2 cents, but stock market is based much more on perception than reality. Why is it bad is mostly that people who understand 5% of the facts of the situation are panicking because people who understand 10% of the situation are telling them to. That doesn’t mean this wasn’t a mistake. Doing anything that creates widespread unrest from investors is basically always bad even if the policy itself is fine.

I would agree that the stock market can be detached from reality, but typically it does a pretty good job of looking ahead.

I work for an engineering company. We’re already seeing belt tightening. Contractors are having to price in much higher materials costs for projects because they can’t afford to guess that the tariffs will be repealed. Clients are pausing or cancelling projects because all sorts of government funding sources have been paused or canceled.

So companies, municipalities, schools, etc are pausing or cancelling projects. Which means less work for all the contractors involved. Less work for the architects. Less work for the construction managers. Less work for the engineers. Less sales for the suppliers. Etc. So slowing in construction related industries seems to be a strong possibility.

It would also seem to make sense that retail sales will likely slow as well if prices have to be increased due to tariffs.

So I would posit that the decline in the stock market right now is pretty rational.

They've informed us they are cutting off our cell phone stipend and yearly bonuses are up in the air right now

 

[The Longtime Lurker]

This is all completely insane. The volatility, wow.

Great day to play the VIX :makeitrain:

Today might be that day, but I'm sitting this one out. See where the chips fall at the end of the day. The sun will come out tomorrow bet your bottom dollar (gonna hang on to that bottom dollar for now too though).

 

[Zeppelin]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

First, I'm not angry. Second, it's the part where you say we're going to overlook a few folks, then later mention Trump without using his name. There was zero reason to say that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

First, I'm not angry. Second, it's the part where you say we're going to overlook a few folks, then later mention Trump without using his name. There was zero reason to say that.

Wasn't done with malice, my apologies

 

[GroveDiesel]

If you don’t need the money soon and stick with dollar cost averaging, eventually this will make you money. I highly doubt this is a event we never recover from.

For folks who aren’t too close to retirement, not panicking is the right move. Though where it becomes really dangerous is if the economy goes into a recession and people lose their jobs, they may be forced into cashing in their 401ks to make ends meet. And that’s disaster because then they’ll be realizing those losses and probably having to buy back in at higher costs by the time they regain employment.

For those close to retirement, a lot of them may need to reconsider and keep working if we don’t reverse course quickly and bounce back.

For those in retirement, hopefully their assets are more conservative overall and taking less of a hit. Even then, many may have to look at reductions in lifestyle or even finding some part time work if things don’t recover quickly.

 

[rockaction]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

First, I'm not angry. Second, it's the part where you say we're going to overlook a few folks, then later mention Trump without using his name. There was zero reason to say that.

Wasn't done with malice, my apologies

Fellas, can you stop quoting me? I'm getting notifications up the ying while all y'alls underwear is getting twisted.

 

[bigbottom]

This is all completely insane. The volatility, wow.

It’s just nuts.

 

[Major]

This is all completely insane. The volatility, wow.

Great day to play the VIX :makeitrain:

Today might be that day, but I'm sitting this one out. See where the chips fall at the end of the day. The sun will come out tomorrow bet your bottom dollar (gonna hang on to that bottom dollar for now too though).

Yeah, probably best to hit the gym and work on ya bench. If you need a spot, lemme know bro.

 

[The Longtime Lurker]

This is all completely insane. The volatility, wow.

Great day to play the VIX :makeitrain:

Today might be that day, but I'm sitting this one out. See where the chips fall at the end of the day. The sun will come out tomorrow bet your bottom dollar (gonna hang on to that bottom dollar for now too though).

Yeah, probably best to hit the gym and work on ya bench. If you need a spot, lemme know bro.

Spot? What's a spot? Last guy that stood over my bench they're still looking for. Atleast he's probably not worried about his retirement #silverlinings

 

[Zow]

Ride it out - not retiring for 10 years or so. Won’t really pay attention.

That's my approach (and has been as I've made mostly conservative, long-term investing my strategy so I rarely even look).

 

[TennesseeJed]

Interesting take:

https://x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/1908919349798203576

Larry Fink $BLK manages $11 trillion
"The USA doesn't even have enough workers to become a manufacturing economy"


Talks about the labor shortage - and the current reliance on immigrants to fill many jobs in Agriculture and construction.

 

[HellToupee]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

First, I'm not angry. Second, it's the part where you say we're going to overlook a few folks, then later mention Trump without using his name. There was zero reason to say that.

Wasn't done with malice, my apologies

Fellas, can you stop quoting me? I'm getting notifications up the ying while all y'alls underwear is getting twisted.

Will do

 

[HellToupee]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

First, I'm not angry. Second, it's the part where you say we're going to overlook a few folks, then later mention Trump without using his name. There was zero reason to say that.

Wasn't done with malice, my apologies

Fellas, can you stop quoting me? I'm getting notifications up the ying while all y'alls underwear is getting twisted.

Will do

Hi

 

[Zeppelin]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

You say you want to try and then post the crap in bold? Why not leave it at "we're going to try"?

This is how the economy thread got shut down.

Huh?
I am confused. You're angry because I lead with open arms?
Forgive me

First, I'm not angry. Second, it's the part where you say we're going to overlook a few folks, then later mention Trump without using his name. There was zero reason to say that.

Wasn't done with malice, my apologies

Fellas, can you stop quoting me? I'm getting notifications up the ying while all y'alls underwear is getting twisted.

Will do

Hi

 

[steelerfan1]

I'm now down 20% in my retirement accounts. No choice but to ride it out, but I'm mad as Hell.

Am sure most people will have realised this - but just in case anyone hasn't - this is happening all over the world, I'm English (live about 30 miles from London), and I'm down 20% in my retirement accounts too (and that was before today's latest slump, with the FTSE down around 4% at the moment).

And I think the Asian markets are being hit extremely hard as well

So, with potentially every country having pain, is this tariff thing a chip to bring everybody to the table to renegotiate on the %'s? I would have thought that that would have been discussed prior to all of this first though...

 

[steelerfan1]

also, i'm at 4 or so years until retirement and just riding it out. nothing else you can do.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Another fundamental problem with the approach Trump has taken to the trade imbalances:

Using Vietnam as an example - In 2023, Vietnam's GDP per capita was recorded at $4,282 in current US dollars, according to the World Bank.

What rational US company wants to export goods to Vietnam? There is no financial reason to mass market US manufactured goods or even agriculture to a country that can't afford it - shipping alone would cost more than the US companies could hope to recoup, let alone profit from.



Vietnam should have a trade surplus with the US - and the US benefits from said surplus. Over the long-term, when Vietnam builds up its GDP via exports, it will be a more viable market. But for now, they are happy to reduce their own tariffs on US goods because they simply can't afford many in any scenario.

If you see my post above, Chinese companies set up factories in Vietnam so you need to tariff Vietnam for certain goods to make sure that China doesn't try to work around tariffs by going through Vietnam. Once China plays ball, then you can remove the Vietnam tariffs.

Is that scenario common or happening with any other countries?

Just look up "China + 1 manufacturing hubs."

 

[KarmaPolice]

I hope the 49.8% who voted for him enjoy the collapse! This is a war of choice and economic malpractice.

The stock market isn't the economy.

Of course but if we have a recession in the stock market it’s going to cause people to lose jobs, spend less money, lose more jobs, etc. Not a guarantee but highly likely.

You can't see the forest through the trees. You're looking at the short-term here, but this is about a re-ordering of world trade and changing dynamics with supply chains. After COVID, it was patently obvious that the US was/is too reliant on other countries for items important for our long-term prosperity and existence.

That's how it is being sold, of course. BUT - that is not all our goods, so there is no need for these blanket tariffs. There are products we frankly cant make or grow ourselves, so tariffs on those products and countries make 0 sense. On top of that, it takes time to construct ir upgrade facilities as 80s pointed out - so again, in the meantime we get hit for no reason. On top of that, the very jobs they are supposedly trying to save are also the ones who the people in charge want to replace with AI and that tech.

Imo way more likely is this is very much a power grab for the 1%, because they always get richer coming out of a recession. Also IMO this is all about the race for AI and going all-in trying to get there first and keep it here. It certainly wasnt steel and auto businesses that were prominent at inauguration - a the tech oligarchs were lined up.

That's one of my big questions is how long does it take to build these factories? Sounds mythical or pie in the sky and not realistic

I think we can all agree that this would take more than the weeks and months the notice gave these companies.

As somebody posted upthread, another part of the problem is because this was implemented with seemingly no plan, companies will be hesitant to start building. What if the breeze changes and the tariffs are gone in a few months? IMO like the rest of us a lot of companies will wait it out and try to maintain their profit levels as best they can - which means higher prices and cutting jobs.

IF this was truly about returning manufacturing, there should have been a more targeted tariffs on industries we wanted to return. Then give a year or two notice that tariffs will be X% in 2027 and you have two years to build factories here or beef up infrastructure before then. I really fail to see how this current plan is going to provide long term jobs and success in these industries.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Interesting take:

https://x.com/SpecialSitsNews/status/1908919349798203576

Larry Fink $BLK manages $11 trillion
"The USA doesn't even have enough workers to become a manufacturing economy"


Talks about the labor shortage - and the current reliance on immigrants to fill many jobs in Agriculture and construction.

What? We're the second largest manufacturing country in the world.

 

[Snotbubbles]

also, i'm at 4 or so years until retirement and just riding it out. nothing else you can do.

That close, you should have moved most of your investments into safer assets, no?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

New threat of 50% tariffs on China by Wed

 

[ChiefD]

We have a kid heading to college in the fall and need to access his 529, which has been destroyed. We're ****ed.

Not just retirements being affected

Yeah, I feel your pain here brother.

 

[massraider]

You cannot pay American workers enough, and still sell cheap crap we all love. The math doesn't math.

There are certainly industries, companies, and countries we could use tariffs to play hardball with, but we are not doing that.

https://x.com/dollarsanddata/status/1909235566408839539?t=6Sno_pCYo8DLL4OORSCT9A&s=19

Fear index worst since pandemic

 

[bigbottom]

I hope the 49.8% who voted for him enjoy the collapse! This is a war of choice and economic malpractice.

The stock market isn't the economy.

Of course but if we have a recession in the stock market it’s going to cause people to lose jobs, spend less money, lose more jobs, etc. Not a guarantee but highly likely.

You can't see the forest through the trees. You're looking at the short-term here, but this is about a re-ordering of world trade and changing dynamics with supply chains. After COVID, it was patently obvious that the US was/is too reliant on other countries for items important for our long-term prosperity and existence.

That's how it is being sold, of course. BUT - that is not all our goods, so there is no need for these blanket tariffs. There are products we frankly cant make or grow ourselves, so tariffs on those products and countries make 0 sense. On top of that, it takes time to construct ir upgrade facilities as 80s pointed out - so again, in the meantime we get hit for no reason. On top of that, the very jobs they are supposedly trying to save are also the ones who the people in charge want to replace with AI and that tech.

Imo way more likely is this is very much a power grab for the 1%, because they always get richer coming out of a recession. Also IMO this is all about the race for AI and going all-in trying to get there first and keep it here. It certainly wasnt steel and auto businesses that were prominent at inauguration - a the tech oligarchs were lined up.

That's one of my big questions is how long does it take to build these factories? Sounds mythical or pie in the sky and not realistic

I think we can all agree that this would take more than the weeks and months the notice gave these companies.

As somebody posted upthread, another part of the problem is because this was implemented with seemingly no plan, companies will be hesitant to start building. What if the breeze changes and the tariffs are gone in a few months? IMO like the rest of us a lot of companies will wait it out and try to maintain their profit levels as best they can - which means higher prices and cutting jobs.

IF this was truly about returning manufacturing, there should have been a more targeted tariffs on industries we wanted to return. Then give a year or two notice that tariffs will be X% in 2027 and you have two years to build factories here or beef up infrastructure before then. I really fail to see how this current plan is going to provide long term jobs and success in these industries.

I imagine the auto industry is particularly concerned about making huge long term capital investments. Many manufacturers did that big time to plan for compliance with the federal EV mandate, and then just a few years later the mandate is gone.

 

[TLEF316]

You cannot pay American workers enough, and still sell cheap crap we all love. The math doesn't math.

There are certainly industries, companies, and countries we could use tariffs to play hardball with, but we are not doing that.

https://x.com/dollarsanddata/status/1909235566408839539?t=6Sno_pCYo8DLL4OORSCT9A&s=19

Fear index worst since pandemic

This.

I don't disagree that certain countries are taking major advantage of America from an economic standpoint (The fact that we basically subsidize everyone else's prescription costs pisses me off to no end) .

But you want $200 50 inch TV's and 6 pack tee shirts for $15.....they're not being made here.

 

[Gatorade]

So, addressing the "black Monday" comment. People have been saying for a couple of years that the market was due for a correction, although not one this drastic. I think back to 9-11. Just before going on vacation then I planned to rebalance my portfolio to a more conservative position. I got busy and forgot to do that and just said to myself that I would do it after the vacation was over. What a mistake. It took years to recover from that. Here, people had a 30 day warning on tarrifs, so hopefully we're able to rebalance somewhat. For most people, the stock market is a long play and will just have to ride it out. Plus, many are not even in the stock market.
At far as jobs coming back to the US. I guess we shall see. If it does, it will be good for the middle class hopefully.

 

[rockaction]

Another fundamental problem with the approach Trump has taken to the trade imbalances:

Using Vietnam as an example - In 2023, Vietnam's GDP per capita was recorded at $4,282 in current US dollars, according to the World Bank.

What rational US company wants to export goods to Vietnam? There is no financial reason to mass market US manufactured goods or even agriculture to a country that can't afford it - shipping alone would cost more than the US companies could hope to recoup, let alone profit from.



Vietnam should have a trade surplus with the US - and the US benefits from said surplus. Over the long-term, when Vietnam builds up its GDP via exports, it will be a more viable market. But for now, they are happy to reduce their own tariffs on US goods because they simply can't afford many in any scenario.

If you see my post above, Chinese companies set up factories in Vietnam so you need to tariff Vietnam for certain goods to make sure that China doesn't try to work around tariffs by going through Vietnam. Once China plays ball, then you can remove the Vietnam tariffs.

Is that scenario common or happening with any other countries?

If my original post here crosses some boundaries- sorry - but if we can’t discuss some fundamental economic issues the thread is pretty pointless

My posts got deleted and they're about as dispassionate and non-finger pointing as you can get. In fact, my stance on the issue is different than what one would guess from the facts I posted, but facts are freaking facts and nothing—no deletions, no head in the sand crap because people can't take it and we need comity above all else—is going to change the underlying fact that the tariffs are there to spur our manufacturing industry (these are the words of the people that are levying the tariffs) and that the American manufacturing industries are having trouble filling their jobs with American labor, which is the purported beneficiary of these tariffs.

I swear to God if this gets deleted I'm giving up. I can't be any more neutral than this or discuss the subject without it.

If this is only a cry on shoulder thread then so be it, but then tell people that.

 

[Sand]

For most what else is there to do other than cross your fingers and wait it out. I doubt most of us have heaps of money to use this as some great buying opportunity. The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

Unlikely, for the most part. Lots of stories over the weekend on family offices scrambling with losses and hedge funds getting huge margin calls. Rich are more likely to have invested in esoteric stuff, so are more likely to see big losses. Us schmos with IVV/IEF are probably weathering this better than they.

 

[Bossman]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

Let's take Cambodia. They make shoes. Pay is perhaps 0.78c/ hr and they work 60-90 hours a week making shoes.

As a government you need to raise money. Your people are making pennies. Your choice is tax your people or tax your goods going out.

Even with taxes on the way out of 20-30% the labor state is still likely under a buck an hour.

And yet somehow we are the ones getting ripped off.

You could say we are altruistic and trying to raise the working conditions of Cambodia shoe workers, but if you believe that well....

I'm confused. Doesn't the US consumer pay the tariff?
... assuming the importer rolls the additional cost into the retail price, the Cambodian shoe company is not affected other than the US seller now charging more for their product. Maybe sales go down?

 

[FBG Moderator]

Another fundamental problem with the approach Trump has taken to the trade imbalances:

Using Vietnam as an example - In 2023, Vietnam's GDP per capita was recorded at $4,282 in current US dollars, according to the World Bank.

What rational US company wants to export goods to Vietnam? There is no financial reason to mass market US manufactured goods or even agriculture to a country that can't afford it - shipping alone would cost more than the US companies could hope to recoup, let alone profit from.



Vietnam should have a trade surplus with the US - and the US benefits from said surplus. Over the long-term, when Vietnam builds up its GDP via exports, it will be a more viable market. But for now, they are happy to reduce their own tariffs on US goods because they simply can't afford many in any scenario.

If you see my post above, Chinese companies set up factories in Vietnam so you need to tariff Vietnam for certain goods to make sure that China doesn't try to work around tariffs by going through Vietnam. Once China plays ball, then you can remove the Vietnam tariffs.

Is that scenario common or happening with any other countries?

If my original post here crosses some boundaries- sorry - but if we can’t discuss some fundamental economic issues the thread is pretty pointless

My posts got deleted and they're about as dispassionate and non-finger pointing as you can get. In fact, my stance on the issue is different than what one would guess from the facts I posted, but facts are freaking facts and nothing—no deletions, no head in the sand crap because people can't take it and we need comity above all else—is going to change the underlying fact that the tariffs are there to spur our manufacturing industry (these are the words of the people that are levying the tariffs) and that the American manufacturing industries are having trouble filling their jobs with American labor, which is the purported beneficiary of these tariffs.

I swear to God if this gets deleted I'm giving up. I can't be any more neutral than this or discuss the subject without it.

If this is only a cry on shoulder thread then so be it, but then tell people that.

May be best to just end this one. Most people could see it heading this way.

When posts are prefaced with "That really sounds like I'm on a particular side," but then go on to say you're not really taking a side, it usually doesn't go well.