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Tom Brady-time to jump ship? (1 Viewer)

socrates said:
Tom Brady continues to produce, season after season, regardless of who lines up at receiver. I learned many years ago, as a former Dan Marino fantasy owner, not to overanalyze the quality of the targets, and just trust your stud QB. Tom Brady will be just fine. If you are fortunate enough to have him leading your fantasy team, just set him in your lineup, and forget about it.
So when Dan Marino was 36, and his top receivers were OJ McDuffie and Troy Drayton, you didn't overanalyze the quality of his targets, and trusted your stud QB? How did Marinos 3800 yards and 16 TDs work out for you that year?
:confused: When Dan Marino was 36, he was coming off two injury plagued seasons, the most recent of which saw him light up the scoreboard for 2800/17, and was going undrafted in fantasy drafts.

Apples to Platypuses.
The point is that just because a guy WAS a stud doesn't mean he will always be a stud, or that he is still just a stud. Situation and age DO matter, and if you just say "He's Tom Brady, start him," without considering his age, and his situation, that doesn't make sense, FF speaking.The fact that Brady has put up numbers for 10 years, can actually be a point against him, because it means he's not in his prime anymore.

 
You should of drafted him as a mid level starter qb6ish. He will be that but dont expect him to carry your team.
That's my point. I did draft him there, but I saw the upside for more (based on pre-season reports about Thompkins, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, etc). Since Thompkins and Sudfeld underwhelmed in game 1, and Vereen and Amendola are hurt, I don't necessarily see the upside.Let's assume we are talking about a mid-low level QB1 not named "Tom Brady." If this hypothetical QB lost two of his top receivers in the 1st game, would it not make sense to consider replacing him with a back-up QB? Is it just the fact that his name is "Tom Brady" that is sparking such outrage?
IT'S ONE GAME!!!! And after one game, Brady is on track to have a 4608/32 season. Amendola will be out this week, but odds are that he should be back next week and perhaps Gronk as well. You guys are way overthinking this.

 
Benching Tom Brady this week for Terrelle Pryor. :football:

dead serious.
I have been seriously considering that in one league where I really don't have a shot at winning this week anyway. Pryor outscored him by 7 points and is facing the inept Jags. Dicey, but figuring that I might as well swing for the fences.

 
socrates said:
Tom Brady continues to produce, season after season, regardless of who lines up at receiver. I learned many years ago, as a former Dan Marino fantasy owner, not to overanalyze the quality of the targets, and just trust your stud QB. Tom Brady will be just fine. If you are fortunate enough to have him leading your fantasy team, just set him in your lineup, and forget about it.
So when Dan Marino was 36, and his top receivers were OJ McDuffie and Troy Drayton, you didn't overanalyze the quality of his targets, and trusted your stud QB? How did Marinos 3800 yards and 16 TDs work out for you that year?
The rules 16 years ago are not what they are now. It's a pass friendly league now.

Also, that year, Marino was 1st in the league for completions, 3rd in passing yards, and only 3 TD's shy of 10th place there.

I think it worked out pretty well for him that year.
 
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I don't want to dissuade anybody from starting Pryor. I think he's an exciting option.

I was just advising somebody who started a thread purportedly asking whether there were good reasons to jump ship on Brady. There are no such reasons, but it turns out it was just meant as a Brady bashing thread.

:shrug:

Whatever. I like both players this weekend. GL to all, no matter their choices.

 
You should of drafted him as a mid level starter qb6ish. He will be that but dont expect him to carry your team.
That's my point. I did draft him there, but I saw the upside for more (based on pre-season reports about Thompkins, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, etc). Since Thompkins and Sudfeld underwhelmed in game 1, and Vereen and Amendola are hurt, I don't necessarily see the upside.Let's assume we are talking about a mid-low level QB1 not named "Tom Brady." If this hypothetical QB lost two of his top receivers in the 1st game, would it not make sense to consider replacing him with a back-up QB? Is it just the fact that his name is "Tom Brady" that is sparking such outrage?
IT'S ONE GAME!!!! And after one game, Brady is on track to have a 4608/32 season. Amendola will be out this week, but odds are that he should be back next week and perhaps Gronk as well. You guys are way overthinking this.
I wasn't complaining about his ONE GAME, or the stats he put up in it. I was asking a question about the injuries NE receivers suffered, if it was time to look at other QB options.

Again, I think too much "credit" is being given to Brady because he is "Tom Brady." He was projected as as QB6 in the 9/2 FBG projections. #5 was Kaepernick and #7 was Luck. If Kaepernick lost Anquan Boldin for an unspecificed amount of time and Vernon Davis for the next 2.5 months, would it be fair to downgrade him and look at other options at QB? If Wayne was lost for an unspecified period of time & Hilton (or Allen or Fleener) were out for 2.5 months, would it be fair to downgrade Luck & consider other options. Because right now, in 2013 (not 2012 or 2011, or 2007), they, like Brady are mid to low-end QB1 options.

 
socrates said:
Tom Brady continues to produce, season after season, regardless of who lines up at receiver. I learned many years ago, as a former Dan Marino fantasy owner, not to overanalyze the quality of the targets, and just trust your stud QB. Tom Brady will be just fine. If you are fortunate enough to have him leading your fantasy team, just set him in your lineup, and forget about it.
So when Dan Marino was 36, and his top receivers were OJ McDuffie and Troy Drayton, you didn't overanalyze the quality of his targets, and trusted your stud QB? How did Marinos 3800 yards and 16 TDs work out for you that year?
The rules 16 years ago are not what they are now. It's a pass friendly league now.

Also, that year, Marino was 1st in the league for completions, 3rd in passing yards, and only 3 TD's shy of 10th place there.

I think it worked out pretty well for him that year.
I know the NFL is different now. In a "typical" league, Marino was QB11 that year. I don't know why anyone would say "I have QB11, I'll just plug him into my lineup and forget it." Typically if you have the last startable position player (or 2nd to last), you'd play matchups, and/or look to upgrade. But evidently if you consider that with Marino or Brady, you are bashing them.

 
I don't want to dissuade anybody from starting Pryor. I think he's an exciting option.

I was just advising somebody who started a thread purportedly asking whether there were good reasons to jump ship on Brady. There are no such reasons, but it turns out it was just meant as a Brady bashing thread.

:shrug:

Whatever. I like both players this weekend. GL to all, no matter their choices.
No such reasons?

1-top 4 receivers from last year are not currently available

2-2 of the top receiving options from this year are now out (one indefinitely, one for over 2 months)

3-two of the rookie receiving options who looked good in the preseason, looked bad in week 1

That's 3 reasons. Perhaps you think they aren't enough to doubt Brady, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.

 
looool I haven't read the latest posts in here, but I may be the biggest brady fan on this board and I didn't see this thread as brady bashing -- I think it's a pretty legit question.

maybe recent posts are more hurtful.

 
OK, not trying to give away FBG insider info, but according to MYFBG, Brady is not even ranked in the top-10, per my league's scoring rules. Vick and Pryor are ranked ahead of him.

It seems like this question isn't TOO out there, at least not for this week.

 
You should of drafted him as a mid level starter qb6ish. He will be that but dont expect him to carry your team.
That's my point. I did draft him there, but I saw the upside for more (based on pre-season reports about Thompkins, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, etc). Since Thompkins and Sudfeld underwhelmed in game 1, and Vereen and Amendola are hurt, I don't necessarily see the upside.Let's assume we are talking about a mid-low level QB1 not named "Tom Brady." If this hypothetical QB lost two of his top receivers in the 1st game, would it not make sense to consider replacing him with a back-up QB? Is it just the fact that his name is "Tom Brady" that is sparking such outrage?
i wouldnt of expected to much upside until gronk came back. now i would be worried. i think middle of the pack is his upside now. i wouldnt flush him for cutler right now but a few more under whelming weeks and i wouldnt be afraid to either. agree u cant get caught up in the name.
 
You should of drafted him as a mid level starter qb6ish. He will be that but dont expect him to carry your team.
That's my point. I did draft him there, but I saw the upside for more (based on pre-season reports about Thompkins, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, etc). Since Thompkins and Sudfeld underwhelmed in game 1, and Vereen and Amendola are hurt, I don't necessarily see the upside.Let's assume we are talking about a mid-low level QB1 not named "Tom Brady." If this hypothetical QB lost two of his top receivers in the 1st game, would it not make sense to consider replacing him with a back-up QB? Is it just the fact that his name is "Tom Brady" that is sparking such outrage?
i wouldnt of expected to much upside until gronk came back. now i would be worried. i think middle of the pack is his upside now. i wouldnt flush him for cutler right now but a few more under whelming weeks and i wouldnt be afraid to either. agree u cant get caught up in the name.
Do people fully realize what they are complaining about? Brady botched a snap and easily could have run in or passed for a TD (they needed one foot). Similarly, if Ridley doesn't cough up the ball for a TD return, NE most likely gets at least 3 more points. With the change of two plays which were atypical to NE, they would have scored their usual 33 points, Brady would have had around 300/3, and no one would even be talking about this.

Lost in all this is how the defense played. They gave up 7 points. The offense allowed 14. Yet somehow the sky is falling and Brady and the Pats are done and the offense is in a free fall.

Yes, THIS WEEK on a short week and Amendola out, Brady might not have a huge week. It would not shock me if the Pats scored 10 points . . . or 40 points. With Brady playing and the OL healthy you never know.

 
You should of drafted him as a mid level starter qb6ish. He will be that but dont expect him to carry your team.
That's my point. I did draft him there, but I saw the upside for more (based on pre-season reports about Thompkins, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, etc). Since Thompkins and Sudfeld underwhelmed in game 1, and Vereen and Amendola are hurt, I don't necessarily see the upside.Let's assume we are talking about a mid-low level QB1 not named "Tom Brady." If this hypothetical QB lost two of his top receivers in the 1st game, would it not make sense to consider replacing him with a back-up QB? Is it just the fact that his name is "Tom Brady" that is sparking such outrage?
i wouldnt of expected to much upside until gronk came back. now i would be worried. i think middle of the pack is his upside now. i wouldnt flush him for cutler right now but a few more under whelming weeks and i wouldnt be afraid to either. agree u cant get caught up in the name.
Do people fully realize what they are complaining about? Brady botched a snap and easily could have run in or passed for a TD (they needed one foot). Similarly, if Ridley doesn't cough up the ball for a TD return, NE most likely gets at least 3 more points. With the change of two plays which were atypical to NE, they would have scored their usual 33 points, Brady would have had around 300/3, and no one would even be talking about this.

Lost in all this is how the defense played. They gave up 7 points. The offense allowed 14. Yet somehow the sky is falling and Brady and the Pats are done and the offense is in a free fall.

Yes, THIS WEEK on a short week and Amendola out, Brady might not have a huge week. It would not shock me if the Pats scored 10 points . . . or 40 points. With Brady playing and the OL healthy you never know.
I'd be pretty shocked if they scored 10 points.

 
You should of drafted him as a mid level starter qb6ish. He will be that but dont expect him to carry your team.
That's my point. I did draft him there, but I saw the upside for more (based on pre-season reports about Thompkins, Sudfeld, Vereen, Amendola, etc). Since Thompkins and Sudfeld underwhelmed in game 1, and Vereen and Amendola are hurt, I don't necessarily see the upside.Let's assume we are talking about a mid-low level QB1 not named "Tom Brady." If this hypothetical QB lost two of his top receivers in the 1st game, would it not make sense to consider replacing him with a back-up QB? Is it just the fact that his name is "Tom Brady" that is sparking such outrage?
i wouldnt of expected to much upside until gronk came back. now i would be worried. i think middle of the pack is his upside now. i wouldnt flush him for cutler right now but a few more under whelming weeks and i wouldnt be afraid to either. agree u cant get caught up in the name.
Do people fully realize what they are complaining about? Brady botched a snap and easily could have run in or passed for a TD (they needed one foot). Similarly, if Ridley doesn't cough up the ball for a TD return, NE most likely gets at least 3 more points. With the change of two plays which were atypical to NE, they would have scored their usual 33 points, Brady would have had around 300/3, and no one would even be talking about this.

Lost in all this is how the defense played. They gave up 7 points. The offense allowed 14. Yet somehow the sky is falling and Brady and the Pats are done and the offense is in a free fall.

Yes, THIS WEEK on a short week and Amendola out, Brady might not have a huge week. It would not shock me if the Pats scored 10 points . . . or 40 points. With Brady playing and the OL healthy you never know.
Well come on, they'll score 10 points accidentally.

 
Watch the game again and see how many of Brady's throws were offline. It was not a good game for him. The Bills were without their top two secondary players and could have been chewed up.

On the last drive, Brady only targeted Amendola and Vereen both of whom may not play, V for sure.

I do not think Brady will be a top 10 QB this week, if I had another option I would consider it.

 
I don't want to dissuade anybody from starting Pryor. I think he's an exciting option.

I was just advising somebody who started a thread purportedly asking whether there were good reasons to jump ship on Brady. There are no such reasons, but it turns out it was just meant as a Brady bashing thread.

:shrug:

Whatever. I like both players this weekend. GL to all, no matter their choices.
No such reasons?

1-top 4 receivers from last year are not currently available

2-2 of the top receiving options from this year are now out (one indefinitely, one for over 2 months)

3-two of the rookie receiving options who looked good in the preseason, looked bad in week 1

That's 3 reasons. Perhaps you think they aren't enough to doubt Brady, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
Again, knock yourself out.

I'm done "arguing" because I didn't come to argue. You presented this as a question, and when presented with answers, you didn't bother to consider or weigh or even suggest counterpoints to your thesis might be interesting.

You did what you quite obviously came here to do: write Brady's obit. Which, if you want to, again, that's fine. My problem isn't with the thread or the POV. It's with you. If your opinion is that Brady sucks, start a topic called "Brady sucks." Don't ask for goodwill input when you have no intention of listening to it, but are really just here to hear yourself spew. :shrug:

 
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I don't want to dissuade anybody from starting Pryor. I think he's an exciting option.

I was just advising somebody who started a thread purportedly asking whether there were good reasons to jump ship on Brady. There are no such reasons, but it turns out it was just meant as a Brady bashing thread.

:shrug:

Whatever. I like both players this weekend. GL to all, no matter their choices.
No such reasons?

1-top 4 receivers from last year are not currently available

2-2 of the top receiving options from this year are now out (one indefinitely, one for over 2 months)

3-two of the rookie receiving options who looked good in the preseason, looked bad in week 1

That's 3 reasons. Perhaps you think they aren't enough to doubt Brady, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
Again, knock yourself out.

I'm done "arguing" because I didn't come to argue. You presented this as a question, and when presented with answers, you didn't bother to consider or weigh or even suggest counterpoints to your thesis might be interesting.

You did what you quite obviously came here to do: write Brady's obit. Which, if you want to, again, that's fine. My problem isn't with the thread or the POV. It's with you. If your opinion is that Brady sucks, start a topic called "Brady sucks." Don't ask for goodwill input when you have no intention of listening to it, but are really just here to hear yourself spew. :shrug:
Really? Then why am I starting him over my backup options this week? If I was "writing his obit," I wouldn't start him, would I?

You said I was presented with answers; but I don't consider "He's Brady," "He's been doing it for a decade," "Dan Marino did it," and "always start your studs" answer, at least not logical ones.

And I don't think Brady sucks, I just think with his lack of receiving weapons, he is a bottom tier QB1 (posted this several times in this thread, NEVER posted "Brady sucks), and as such, other options should be considered depending on matchups.

You seem to be the one wanting to spew "Brady is a must start," despite many things pointing to a different conclusion, for the time being.

 
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I don't want to dissuade anybody from starting Pryor. I think he's an exciting option.

I was just advising somebody who started a thread purportedly asking whether there were good reasons to jump ship on Brady. There are no such reasons, but it turns out it was just meant as a Brady bashing thread.

:shrug:

Whatever. I like both players this weekend. GL to all, no matter their choices.
No such reasons?1-top 4 receivers from last year are not currently available

2-2 of the top receiving options from this year are now out (one indefinitely, one for over 2 months)

3-two of the rookie receiving options who looked good in the preseason, looked bad in week 1

That's 3 reasons. Perhaps you think they aren't enough to doubt Brady, but that doesn't mean they don't exist.
Again, knock yourself out.I'm done "arguing" because I didn't come to argue. You presented this as a question, and when presented with answers, you didn't bother to consider or weigh or even suggest counterpoints to your thesis might be interesting.

You did what you quite obviously came here to do: write Brady's obit. Which, if you want to, again, that's fine. My problem isn't with the thread or the POV. It's with you. If your opinion is that Brady sucks, start a topic called "Brady sucks." Don't ask for goodwill input when you have no intention of listening to it, but are really just here to hear yourself spew. :shrug:
Really? Then why am I starting him over my backup options this week? If I was "writing his obit," I wouldn't start him, would I?You said I was presented with answers; but I don't consider "He's Brady," "He's been doing it for a decade," "Dan Marino did it," and "always start your studs" answer, at least not logical ones.

And I don't think Brady sucks, I just think with his lack of receiving weapons, he is a bottom tier QB1 (posted this several times in this thread, NEVER posted "Brady sucks), and as such, other options should be considered depending on matchups.

You seem to be the one wanting to spew "Brady is a must start," despite many things pointing to a different conclusion, for the time being.
So to recap:Brady-under 50% completions, under 200 yards, 1 TD, visibly upset with his young receivers, reports Amendola might miss 6 weeks.

Am I still "bashing Brady," or just trying to discuss a FF situation, with facts, o n a FF message board?

 
IT'S ONE GAME!!!! And after one game, Brady is on track to have a 4608/32 season. Amendola will be out this week, but odds are that he should be back next week and perhaps Gronk as well. You guys are way overthinking this.

This 100% correct. Dola and Gronk come back. And the young WRs will improve. There is nothing I see to suggest that Brady's skills are eroding. His WRs makes a couple of more catches - like if he Thompkins catch wasn't called back and his line would look a lot better. He is still a top 5 QB every week when Gronk et al return

 
IT'S ONE GAME!!!! And after one game, Brady is on track to have a 4608/32 season. Amendola will be out this week, but odds are that he should be back next week and perhaps Gronk as well. You guys are way overthinking this.
This 100% correct. Dola and Gronk come back. And the young WRs will improve. There is nothing I see to suggest that Brady's skills are eroding. His WRs makes a couple of more catches - like if he Thompkins catch wasn't called back and his line would look a lot better. He is still a top 5 QB every week when Gronk et al return

How do you know the young WRs will improve? We hope they will improve, we expect them to improve, but there's no way you can say with certainty that they will improve. Thompkins had exactly the same catch % as week 1, but only 1/2 the targets. With Amendola and Vereen out, you would have expected his targets to go up, not down. Dobson dropped several balls that he probably should have caught.

Amendola is out for up to 6 weeks, Vereen for at least 10. When Gronkowski comes back, he's likely going to see double coverage, at least until 1/both of those guys return.

You can keep saying "He's Brady," "He's top 5," etc, but the facts show that he has fewer weapons now than he has at any time in the last several years, and based on his first 2 games, that makes me nervous about his fantasy prospects.

 
So I came here to see the activity in the now locked Kenbrell Thompkins thread, but I came there to actually post about Brady, then stumbled across this thread.

My $0.02 - Brady looks bad. You can blame it on the rookie WR's, you can say that he'll get better when the big targets come back, but I think the simple truth is Brady is a guy who now has to make a living off of passes under 15 yards, and I really don't see him going through progressions well. I don't see him as a deep ball guy anymore. As someone in another thread said, he hasn't had a deep-ball guy since Moss. Everyone has said that's been a WR thing, but I'm wondering if it's Brady. He's the common thread. He looks unwilling to go deep very often.

He basically looks for the 5-10 yard in route on nearly every play. What is as perplexing is why the Jets couldn't stop it, but that's a different story. Brady has inexperienced rookie WR's...fact. But you can't just stand there and scream at them all game. At some point, Brady and/or Belichick has to adjust their play calling to adjust to the FACT that they have inexperienced rookie WR's. Less read routes. Brady needs to realize this as well and stop being such a prim a-donna. He flat out missed a few guys last night, and you didn't see his WR's yelling at him and acting like a 4-year olds. When great QB's get dealt a bad supporting cast, they make the best of it. Great QB's make those around them better. At this point, I think Brady needs to learn to adjust his game to the fact that he doesn't have the weapons he's previously had, instead of complaining about it visibly after every play.

 
After re-watching the game, I'm actually somewhat encouraged. I don't think Brady is going to be a top-5 QB this year, but I see room for improvement.

He seemed out of synch with Thompkins and Dobson. Several times they didn't end up where he expected them to be. I'm going to assume these were "read" routes, not the rookies running the incorrect route. Hopefully, those things can be fixed (if not, hopefully the Pats will recognize this issue & stop calling those "read" routes).

He just missed 2 TDs in the 2nd quarter. The first was to Dobson. Brady overthrew it by a hair, but Dobson stretched for it and got both hands on it. It should have been a catch, but if Brady throws it slightly better, Dobson catches it in stride and glides into the end zone. The 2nd was the overturned TD to Thompkins. It was a great effort by Thompkins, but again, if Brady doesn't overthrow him, it's an easy catch & TD. I'm hopeful/optimistic that Brady will get his timing down on these routes, and that will help open up the middle and short passes when Gronkowski and Amendola return.

If one/both of Thompkins/Dobson step up as a reliable, outside receiver, Brady will have Edelman/Amendola work the inside/intermediate routes, and Gronkowski working the seams; the Pats will be able to challenge all parts of the field. They haven't been able to do that the first two weeks (no TE threat, rookies have been inconsistent).

If, however, the rookies don't step up, D's will be able to clog the middle of the field, and Brady will have more frustrating nights like last night.

 
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To answer the question of the original post, I think Brady's numbers would be fine if he has the following guys all healthy on the field at the same time: Gronk, Vereen, Amendola, Edelman, Ridley, and Thompkins. If people want to say that could be never, I won't fault you for taking that position. Dobson was a good news bad news situation. The good news was he got open a lot, the bad news was he couldn't catch the ball. I doubt Boyce does much this year, as it looks pretty clear that he is raw, is having a tough time picking up the offense, and if ever he were going to play a bigger role it would have been last night.

And for all the people saying BB's arrogance made this situation the way it is, people are quick to forget the timeline of what happened. When the half-hearted negotiations were going on with Welker, the Pats were thinking they had a healthy Gronk (who went on to go have back surgery), Hernandez was goping to play a bigger role (but went on to star in the sequel to The Longest Yard), and they were still hopeful they would have Lloyd back at a reduced salary. I am sure they were hopeful that one of the rookie WRS might chip in here and there. Combine those guys with Amendola, Edelman, Ridley, Vereen, etc. and having Welker depart to DEN did not seem as big a deal as it has become. However, with the personnel losses and injuries, they have now thrust the rookie crop into the linelight, which I don't think they ever were planning to have to do en masse.

So I would agree that until Gronk and Amendola get back, Brady might not be the best fantasy option out there. However, I am not ready to declare that the sky is falling for the entire season just yet.

 
To answer the question of the original post, I think Brady's numbers would be fine if he has the following guys all healthy on the field at the same time: Gronk, Vereen, Amendola, Edelman, Ridley, and Thompkins. If people want to say that could be never, I won't fault you for taking that position. Dobson was a good news bad news situation. The good news was he got open a lot, the bad news was he couldn't catch the ball. I doubt Boyce does much this year, as it looks pretty clear that he is raw, is having a tough time picking up the offense, and if ever he were going to play a bigger role it would have been last night.

And for all the people saying BB's arrogance made this situation the way it is, people are quick to forget the timeline of what happened. When the half-hearted negotiations were going on with Welker, the Pats were thinking they had a healthy Gronk (who went on to go have back surgery), Hernandez was goping to play a bigger role (but went on to star in the sequel to The Longest Yard), and they were still hopeful they would have Lloyd back at a reduced salary. I am sure they were hopeful that one of the rookie WRS might chip in here and there. Combine those guys with Amendola, Edelman, Ridley, Vereen, etc. and having Welker depart to DEN did not seem as big a deal as it has become. However, with the personnel losses and injuries, they have now thrust the rookie crop into the linelight, which I don't think they ever were planning to have to do en masse.

So I would agree that until Gronk and Amendola get back, Brady might not be the best fantasy option out there. However, I am not ready to declare that the sky is falling for the entire season just yet.
Similar to what I think.

With regards to Dobson, were hands a question for him prior to last night, or does that seem like a case of a rookie's first NFL game being in prime-time, and perhaps a case of nerves.

From what I saw, he looked like a legitimate threat to the deeper parts of the field, and if D's have to respect that (which they really haven't had to do the last few years against NE), that could open things up when Gronk, Amendola, Vereen come back.

 
To answer the question of the original post, I think Brady's numbers would be fine if he has the following guys all healthy on the field at the same time: Gronk, Vereen, Amendola, Edelman, Ridley, and Thompkins. If people want to say that could be never, I won't fault you for taking that position. Dobson was a good news bad news situation. The good news was he got open a lot, the bad news was he couldn't catch the ball. I doubt Boyce does much this year, as it looks pretty clear that he is raw, is having a tough time picking up the offense, and if ever he were going to play a bigger role it would have been last night.

And for all the people saying BB's arrogance made this situation the way it is, people are quick to forget the timeline of what happened. When the half-hearted negotiations were going on with Welker, the Pats were thinking they had a healthy Gronk (who went on to go have back surgery), Hernandez was goping to play a bigger role (but went on to star in the sequel to The Longest Yard), and they were still hopeful they would have Lloyd back at a reduced salary. I am sure they were hopeful that one of the rookie WRS might chip in here and there. Combine those guys with Amendola, Edelman, Ridley, Vereen, etc. and having Welker depart to DEN did not seem as big a deal as it has become. However, with the personnel losses and injuries, they have now thrust the rookie crop into the linelight, which I don't think they ever were planning to have to do en masse.

So I would agree that until Gronk and Amendola get back, Brady might not be the best fantasy option out there. However, I am not ready to declare that the sky is falling for the entire season just yet.
Similar to what I think.

With regards to Dobson, were hands a question for him prior to last night, or does that seem like a case of a rookie's first NFL game being in prime-time, and perhaps a case of nerves.

From what I saw, he looked like a legitimate threat to the deeper parts of the field, and if D's have to respect that (which they really haven't had to do the last few years against NE), that could open things up when Gronk, Amendola, Vereen come back.
I'm sort of the wrong one to ask as I didn't follow him much in college. However, I did see some college highlight reel catches and there were some claims that he played his final season without dropping a pass (although I believed that was debunked).

He garnered mixed reviews in training camp, but I thought most of the issues were him grasping the complexity of the offense and not being at the right place at the right time (ie zigged when he should have zagged). Whether he someday he will "get it" in terms of the offensive scheme (and how quickly) is anyone's guess at this point.

 
From the other threadhttp://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4794467

Is Welker better than he was ever given credit for?

Is Brady worse?
Because there is so much we can learn from 11 quarters of football from 3 seasons ago when the first two games were when Brady was returning from a year long absence.
Because there is nothing we can learn.....
My point being that if you watched the games that they are describing, in the early going in 2009 Brady was both rusty and terrified and looked like a deer in the headlights His performance most of that season was shaky at best.

People can try to connect whatever dots they want to draw conclusions. Like Peyton Manning is suddenly a much better QB playing with Welker, as he's average 450 yds passing and 7 TD a game with Welker.

 
So I came here to see the activity in the now locked Kenbrell Thompkins thread, but I came there to actually post about Brady, then stumbled across this thread.

My $0.02 - Brady looks bad. You can blame it on the rookie WR's, you can say that he'll get better when the big targets come back, but I think the simple truth is Brady is a guy who now has to make a living off of passes under 15 yards, and I really don't see him going through progressions well. I don't see him as a deep ball guy anymore. As someone in another thread said, he hasn't had a deep-ball guy since Moss. Everyone has said that's been a WR thing, but I'm wondering if it's Brady. He's the common thread. He looks unwilling to go deep very often.

He basically looks for the 5-10 yard in route on nearly every play. What is as perplexing is why the Jets couldn't stop it, but that's a different story. Brady has inexperienced rookie WR's...fact. But you can't just stand there and scream at them all game. At some point, Brady and/or Belichick has to adjust their play calling to adjust to the FACT that they have inexperienced rookie WR's. Less read routes. Brady needs to realize this as well and stop being such a prim a-donna. He flat out missed a few guys last night, and you didn't see his WR's yelling at him and acting like a 4-year olds. When great QB's get dealt a bad supporting cast, they make the best of it. Great QB's make those around them better. At this point, I think Brady needs to learn to adjust his game to the fact that he doesn't have the weapons he's previously had, instead of complaining about it visibly after every play.
I don't know if Brady was pouty but the broadcast booth seemed to think so or kept highlighting that.

There's a problem with talent evaluation, GM'ing, and preseason prep here.

Anarchy (DY) called the tenor of the game right yesterday, it was a low scoring affair and the Pats would just try to "get out of Dodge." And that's how it turned out.

And then there was the coaching. The Pats' defense did hold up, but calling that kind of game in today's NFL is basically begging the other team to drive down the field and either tie or win on the last drive. The Jets did get to around their 45 on the 2nd to last drive and then Geno threw another high one for the INT.

The Pats are lucky that one didn't get away from them.

 
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From the other threadhttp://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4794467

Is Welker better than he was ever given credit for?

Is Brady worse?
Because there is so much we can learn from 11 quarters of football from 3 seasons ago when the first two games were when Brady was returning from a year long absence.
Because there is nothing we can learn.....
My point being that if you watched the games that they are describing, in the early going in 2009 Brady was both rusty and terrified and looked like a deer in the headlights His performance most of that season was shaky at best.

People can try to connect whatever dots they want to draw conclusions. Like Peyton Manning is suddenly a much better QB playing with Welker, as he's average 450 yds passing and 7 TD a game with Welker.
thru one game. Manning welker are not even gonna come close to that reg production on a weekly basis... Manning will end up with 5000 and 35 tds... he will be top 3 qb but these astranomical figures like 7 tds and over 400 yards passing are going to come way down 60 percent decrease in tds on avg basis.

 
What about the playoffs that year with no Welker. Under 200 yards, three INTs, one and done.

My only point is that if I was asked before the season, can Brady be a top 5 fantasy QB without Welker I would say yes with 100% confidence.

Watching his play, my confidence that he can be top 5 when his weapons return has dipped and others should take note of this info and make their own opinion.

 
From the other threadhttp://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4794467

Is Welker better than he was ever given credit for?

Is Brady worse?
Because there is so much we can learn from 11 quarters of football from 3 seasons ago when the first two games were when Brady was returning from a year long absence.
Because there is nothing we can learn.....
My point being that if you watched the games that they are describing, in the early going in 2009 Brady was both rusty and terrified and looked like a deer in the headlights His performance most of that season was shaky at best.

People can try to connect whatever dots they want to draw conclusions. Like Peyton Manning is suddenly a much better QB playing with Welker, as he's average 450 yds passing and 7 TD a game with Welker.
thru one game. Manning welker are not even gonna come close to that reg production on a weekly basis... Manning will end up with 5000 and 35 tds... he will be top 3 qb but these astranomical figures like 7 tds and over 400 yards passing are going to come way down 60 percent decrease in tds on avg basis.
That was my point. Manning and Welker have played one game together. To draw any conclusions would be silly. In the linked article, the analysis was based on 2 games Brady played with Welker when Brady had not played in an entire year . . . and the final 3/4 of a game when Welker got injured. So I agree, the sample size for either made the analysis mostly worth very little.

 
What about the playoffs that year with no Welker. Under 200 yards, three INTs, one and done.

My only point is that if I was asked before the season, can Brady be a top 5 fantasy QB without Welker I would say yes with 100% confidence.

Watching his play, my confidence that he can be top 5 when his weapons return has dipped and others should take note of this info and make their own opinion.
What do you think would happen if a team's top receiver got hurt and only had a week to prepare against a playoff team? Do you think the QB's numbers would go up, stay the same, or drop?

As others have mentioned, 3 of Brady's main targets right now are injured . . . Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen. Temporarily take away Graham, Colston, and Sproles and let's see how Brees performs.

This week and maybe next week Brady has guys banged up so don't expect great numbers. If his main guys remain hurt, then he will continue to produce so so numbers.

 
Brady is still one of the best to ever play the game, he just is in a relativly new role for him, kind of a father/big brother figure who has to help his rookie WR to come into their own in the NFL. I can see the pats going all the way this year if the rookies become acclimated to the NFL, they hard less then 60 min in the regular season!

 
1. The end zone throw to Thompkins that was reversed from a TD was not a good throw. Nice grab by KT but it should have been a clean TD if well placed.

2. Brady was lucky to get that 1 TD to Dobson. That was a bit of a trick play, how many time do you see Brady throw a 1940's style jump pass? The Jets bit on the old wing formation and Dobson was wide wide wide open, that was backyard stuff. Brady could have easily gone without a TD last night.

 
From what i saw if i had brady i would start to doubt starting him until he gets some healthy pieces back. I wouldnt go pryor but cutler might be an option i would consider now.

 
What about the playoffs that year with no Welker. Under 200 yards, three INTs, one and done.

My only point is that if I was asked before the season, can Brady be a top 5 fantasy QB without Welker I would say yes with 100% confidence.

Watching his play, my confidence that he can be top 5 when his weapons return has dipped and others should take note of this info and make their own opinion.
What do you think would happen if a team's top receiver got hurt and only had a week to prepare against a playoff team? Do you think the QB's numbers would go up, stay the same, or drop?

As others have mentioned, 3 of Brady's main targets right now are injured . . . Gronk, Amendola, and Vereen. Temporarily take away Graham, Colston, and Sproles and let's see how Brees performs.

This week and maybe next week Brady has guys banged up so don't expect great numbers. If his main guys remain hurt, then he will continue to produce so so numbers.
The bolded was the best analogy I could come up with to finding a similar elite QB and stripping him of similar weapons. And then, instead of normal Saints WRs, replace them with a couple draft picks in Week 2 on a short week of NO PRACTICES! and then play half the game in a monsoon. Oh, and then play the game vs a division rival who in the past has game planned and shut down much better offenses.

For Brady owners, this is likely the nadir of the season. I would hold.

 
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and to be clear it's not necessarily thinking Brady's skills are going away its just his options aren't there. the talent around him is bringing him down man. fantasy wise i cant see him scoring in the top ten consistently until he gets some players healthy.

 
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Bumping this thread.

We're 1/2 through the season, and Brady is on pace for 3700 yards and 18 TDs. Except for Vereen, he has all his receivers back, but he is nowhere near being a FF QB1. His accuracy seems to be off, and while early on you could maybe blame that on the new receivers, after 8 games, I don't know if that excuse still works.

What to make of Brady? Is he done, or is it just a (really) bad year?

 
They showed his hand really banged up during the game yesterday. It must be affecting him.
I saw that. However, that injury occurred last week, I think. He has been inaccurate all year.

Perhaps one could argue that it's just bad luck (Gronk out, Vereen out, Amendola out, then when Gronk and Amendola come back, he hurts his hand), but I'm not so sure. He just seems different this year. Maybe it's the loss of Welker, maybe he's starting that inevitable decline. I don't know, but he's not the QB we're used to seeing.

 
I was slow to bench Brady on my fantasy team, but he is firmly on my bench now. There he will remain until he shows me he has returned to fantasy prominence. If he wasn't already on your bench, yesterday's stat line, which began with an interception on his first pass and did not markedly improve from there, 13 of 22 for 116 yards, 1 TD and 3 sacks, should have driven the point home: Brady is not a "set-it-and-forget-it" fantasy player at the moment.

Over the first half of the season, Brady has dealt with a shuffling corps of untested receivers who lack repetition in this offense and lack rapport with Brady, and Brady's throwing hand is currently hurt, despite his assurance that it is "perfect".

Brady's accuracy is not what we are accustomed to seeing from him. Yesterday was the fourth straight game Brady completed less than 60% of his passes, and over that stretch, Brady has thrown 4 INT's vs. only 2 TD's, been sacked 16 times and the Patriots have gone 2-2 while amassing less than 300 yards of total offense in 3 of those 4 contests.

While we have seen some brief lulls in Brady's fantasy production before, I don't recall Brady ever falling this far for this long.

Nevertheless, the Patriots are 6-2.

I have no reason to believe Brady is done or somehow just no longer an elite talent at the position. We know what Brady is capable of. We know what Bill Belichick is capable of. Brady is still a gritty, determined competitor who is mentally sharp and focused.

I would consider Brady a good buy-low candidate right now. I think there is good reason to believe Brady can vastly improve over the second half of the season, especially from a fantasy production perspective. New England is getting some receiving targets back: Gronk is now back; Vereen should return soon; Amendola was back in action yesterday; Dobson and Thompkins now have a half a season under their belts. Frustrated Brady owners may sell for pennies on the dollar after enduring the last several weeks, but keep in mind, a holding call wiped out a nice 30-yard TD to Gronkowski yesterday, and while that still would not have resulted in a particularly good fantasy day, it certainly would have been more palatable. While the Brady owner in your league is panicking, I might try to pick him up at a discount. I still believe Brady could be valuable down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs, but for now, he is riding the fantasy pine.

 

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