Tom Brady (1 Viewer)

[walkmac]

Based on the following:

1. Givens is gone

2. Branch is out for now

3. RBs should be improved with Dillon healthy and LM in the mix

4. Defence was decimated in 2005

5. Acheived career numbers in 2005

I believe he finished as second amongst QBs last year in standard scoring - I expect him to be in the 8-12 range this year.

 

[wannabee]

also, does anyone think the shoulder surgery will be problematic?

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I think 8 is extreme. I agree he's a bit overvalued (usually one of the top 3 QBs taken) but that's a huge drop that you're predicting.

 

[David Yudkin]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Based on the following:1. Givens is gone2. Branch is out for now3. RBs should be improved with Dillon healthy and LM in the mix4. Defence was decimated in 20055. Acheived career numbers in 2005I believe he finished as second amongst QBs last year in standard scoring - I expect him to be in the 8-12 range this year.

It's inevitable. Way over-valued right now. Surely the bigbottom song will take it's toll as well.

 

[MLBrandow]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

Year		Value		Pos. Rank	Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2002		  38			 9			 432003		   5			11			 712004		  18			10			 612005		  50			 2			 25--------------------------------------------------

I'd say QB10 is pretty much where he should be.I'd go so far as to say he should be expected to be even close to QB12-13, because with two solid backs, they should be running more than the last 4 years.

 

[David Yudkin]

Someone actually emailed that I was a disgrace to the FBG staff for ranking Brady so low, and here's what I wrote back . . .

TOM BRADY, QB 10 Sure, Brady has won 3 Super Bowls and 2 SB MVP trophies. But in the fantasy universe those don't count for anything. Prior to last year, using the FBG scoring system, Tom Terrific ranked 9th , 11th , and 10th in the QB rankings. I have suggested that he will rank 10th again—which is perfectly in line with his other seasons as I am suggesting that last year was an aberration. In our scoring system, Brady scored 310 fantasy points on the season. The year before that same total would have ranked him 7th .The Patriots were plagued with injuries last year on offense and defense, eroding any semblance of a running game and forcing Brady to throw more often. Brady had 56 more passing attempts than the season before and the team had 85 fewer rushing attempts. While it is impossible to predict injuries, I doubt that the Patriots will have the wave of injuries that struck them last year. What does that translate into? Probably a better defense and fewer points allowed. Probably better OL play and a real running game. Probably fewer passing attempts and a grind out the clock mentality . They have Dillon, Pass, Faulk, and Evans all healthy and drafted Maroney on top of it (who looked great the other night) . They almost assuredly will run the ball more. More rushes and fewer passing attempts = less QB fantasy production.Moving on to Brady's targets, there is a real chance that Deion Branch holds out into the season. If Branch chooses not to play, that leaves the WR corps with Reche Caldwell (career high of 28 receptions), and Troy Brown (who hasn't had more than 40 receptions in 5 years). Beyond that, THERE IS NO OTHER WIDE RECEIVER ON THE PATRIOTS ROSTER WITH MORE THAN 3 LIFETIME RECEPTIONS. There's Ben Watson at tight end, but Daniel Graham is still hurt. That leaves Chad Jackson, Dave Thomas, and Garrett Mills—all rookies—as other potential targets.While the Patriots' system may very well be plug and play, I still think that players need experience on the field to be able to be productive. Given the lack of experience at receiver and very few proven producers that New England may have to send out on opening day, I have my doubts about Brady's abilities to put up top tier fantasy numbers. By the way, living outside of Boston I catch every Patriots game, so it's not like I am out of the loop on the Patriots situation. I personally do not see what everyone apparently does, as I have a hard time coming up with a plausible reason that Brady should be considered the #2 fantasy QB this year.

 

[fruity pebbles]

He's averaged 3800 passing yards and 26 TDs the last 4 years. Last year he threw for 4100 yards and 26 TDs, not far off his norm. I see no reason why he won't put up similar numbers again, he has for the last 4 years in varying offensive and defensive conditions.

 

[H.K.]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

 

[glumpy]

He's averaged 3800 passing yards and 26 TDs the last 4 years. Last year he threw for 4100 yards and 26 TDs, not far off his norm. I see no reason why he won't put up similar numbers again, he has for the last 4 years in varying offensive and defensive conditions.

That's still about where I have him projected this year. Maybe what we're looking at, though, is two different things. In going through the last three years scoring in one of my leagues, of course 2004 was an anomaly for QB's as the top group had a huge jump in scoring compared to other years. Last year was exactly the opposite, with the QB scoring taking a dive overall even compared to 2003, which was midway between the two extremes. What this would suggest is that Brady, despite having fairly consistent numbers over that span, still would have taken an inordinate jump in relative rankings in 2005, and it's the other top QB's production which might impact his ranking--not his own production if it stays consistent.

 

[fruity pebbles]

He's averaged 3800 passing yards and 26 TDs the last 4 years. Last year he threw for 4100 yards and 26 TDs, not far off his norm. I see no reason why he won't put up similar numbers again, he has for the last 4 years in varying offensive and defensive conditions.

That's still about where I have him projected this year. Maybe what we're looking at, though, is two different things. In going through the last three years scoring in one of my leagues, of course 2004 was an anomaly for QB's as the top group had a huge jump in scoring compared to other years. Last year was exactly the opposite, with the QB scoring taking a dive overall even compared to 2003, which was midway between the two extremes. What this would suggest is that Brady, despite having fairly consistent numbers over that span, still would have taken an inordinate jump in relative rankings in 2005, and it's the other top QB's production which might impact his ranking--not his own production if it stays consistent.

Who are you going to put at #2 though. Someone has to occupy the spot. McNabb has receiving targets just as bad as Brady's. Palmer's coming off a major injury. Hasselback's numbers are always second tier.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

And in that year he ranked 10th.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I suspect Brady's yards will go down quite a bit, but I think the Patriots will still run a lot of play action around the goal line, so I think his touchdown passes will be around the same, probably around the mid 20's.

 

[H.K.]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

But where did Brady rank that season? See Glumpy's post aboveAlso, how many yards did Dillon run for last year? How many WR's are left from last season? Who is replacing them? What impact will Maroney have on play calling?Nobody is questioning Brady's talent or past statisistical performance, but his circumstances have changed so I forecast a negative impact. I would love to have him as my QB, but don't think he'll duplicate his numbers from last year, which means I'd be paying too much for him.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

And in that year he ranked 10th.

Like I said, someone has to occupy the 2nd spot. Those around him have more question marks than he does. A lot of people would be content to take a guy second who is pretty much guaranteed to be in the top 10 at their position. A lot less risk than a guy who could finish first but also has the potential to finish much much lower.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I had no idea the debate over Tom Brady had turned into the 2005 Peyton Manning debates.

And I'm in the same camp I was last year... He won't repeat. Although I will concede the point that it's likelier that Brady will repeat than Manning will repeat.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

But where did Brady rank that season? See Glumpy's post aboveAlso, how many yards did Dillon run for last year? How many WR's are left from last season? Who is replacing them? What impact will Maroney have on play calling?Nobody is questioning Brady's talent or past statisistical performance, but his circumstances have changed so I forecast a negative impact. I would love to have him as my QB, but don't think he'll duplicate his numbers from last year, which means I'd be paying too much for him.

And I go back to the 2004 season. Dillon ran roughshod and Branch only played half the season. Brady still turned in a 3700 yard 28 TD season. His consistancy in varying situations over the years is his biggest strength.

 

[Callas Disregard]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

What about the fact that Brady is moving into the prime of his career for a QB? Those seasons where he ranked 9-11 he was still very young by QB standards. #2 might be high, but to expect him to revert to his less-experienced days doesn't make any more sense.

 

[Callas Disregard]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

And in that year he ranked 10th.

How often does 3700/28 only get you 10th? Not often.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

And in that year he ranked 10th.

How often does 3700/28 only get you 10th? Not often.

I'll need some research behind that one before I totally accept it.

 

[David Yudkin]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

And in that year he ranked 10th.

Like I said, someone has to occupy the 2nd spot. Those around him have more question marks than he does. A lot of people would be content to take a guy second who is pretty much guaranteed to be in the top 10 at their position. A lot less risk than a guy who could finish first but also has the potential to finish much much lower.

Read my long post above. Sure, Brady's great. But who does he have to throw to? Since it appears to have been missed in that post, I'll try again here. If Branch holds out into the season (which I think there's a 50/50 chance), he's got:WIDE RECEIVERS:

Troy Brown (last time over 40 receptions was in 2002)

Reche Caldwell (career high of 28 receptions)

Chad Jackson (never caught an NFL pass)

John Stone (3 lifetime receptions)

Rich Musinski (never caught an NFL pass)

Eddie Berlin (career high of 20 receptions but 4 other years with a total of 6 receptions)

Zuriel Smith (3 lifetime receptions)

Bam Childress (3 lifetime receptions)

Erik Davis (never caught an NFL pass)

Keron Henry (never caught an NFL pass)

Kelvin Kight (never caught an NFL pass)

TIGHT ENDS

Ben Watson

Daniel Graham (injured)

Walter Rasby (career high of 15 receptions in 11 seasons played)

Dave Thomas (never caught an NFL pass)

Garrett Mills (never caught an NFL pass)

IMO, that is not a group of players that will get Brady to #2 QB production.

 

[David Yudkin]

I sure heard about it when I ranked Brady 10th in my QB rankings . . .

We agree on this one. I love Brady, but think NE becomes a running team this season due to their strength in the backfield they now possess. Last year they had a weaker defense than in years' past, and Dillon couldn't get out of his own way, so they adapted and threw the ball all over the yard. Now they are weak at WR and have a stable of RB's and TE's, so they'll run it down people's throats. Brady will be solid, but not spectacular statisically as compared to 2005.

Year before Dillon ran for 1600 yards and Brady had one of his best seasons, 3700 yards and 28 TDs.

And in that year he ranked 10th.

How often does 3700/28 only get you 10th? Not often.

Brady scored 285 points that year. Here's where that would have ranked the past 10 seasons . . .2005 42004 102003 82002 112001 92000 71999 61998 61997 71996 7Bear in mind that in the second tier of QBs, very few points typically seperates QBs, so even one more TD pass could have meant the difference in 2-3 spots in the rankings. Bottom line, IMO, while Brady is consistently in the Top 10 in most years his numbers are not in an elite class. More power to those that want to be brave and take him as the #2 QB, but that's based more on reputation than statistical evidence.

 

[packersfan]

More power to those that want to be brave and take him as the #2 QB, but that's based more on reputation than statistical evidence.

It could also be based on the uncertainty (significant in many cases) of the other QBs who comprise the Top 10.

 

[H.K.]

More power to those that want to be brave and take him as the #2 QB, but that's based more on reputation than statistical evidence.

It could also be based on the uncertainty (significant in many cases) of the other QBs who comprise the Top 10.

I think Fruity Pebbles is pretty much saying the same thing regarding risk mitigation....take Brady as QB2 and even if he finishes at QB7, its better than taking Eli at QB6 and having him finish as QB15. The ranking is based on reliability and predictability vs. end of year performance. The argument has merit, but in this particular instance, I still see Brady falling below his recent historical averages.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Adjust your rankings as necessary.

 

[David Yudkin]

I suggest we reverse engineer HOW Brady is going to get enough fantasy production to merit his #2 ADP. I listed the guys on the Pats roster. They also have Dillon, Faulk, Maroney, Pass, and Evans at RB. Please post your receiving projections for the Pats to come up to 3800-4000 passing yards and 28 TD. You can slot Branch for whatever you want, but worse case scenario he skips the first 10 games of the season. Also assume that they are not going to sign or trade for another WR.

TIA . . .

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Based on the following:4. Defence was decimated in 20055. Acheived career numbers in 2005

These 2 in conjunction with one another is partly why Brady is a top tier fantasy QByear in and year out.

 

[David Yudkin]

More power to those that want to be brave and take him as the #2 QB, but that's based more on reputation than statistical evidence.

It could also be based on the uncertainty (significant in many cases) of the other QBs who comprise the Top 10.

I think Fruity Pebbles is pretty much saying the same thing regarding risk mitigation....take Brady as QB2 and even if he finishes at QB7, its better than taking Eli at QB6 and having him finish as QB15. The ranking is based on reliability and predictability vs. end of year performance. The argument has merit, but in this particular instance, I still see Brady falling below his recent historical averages.

It depends who went when. If Brady went 2-3 rounds before Manning, I think it would work out that Brady cost you more in a much earlier pick. And remember, the ranking really don't matter, it's tiering that's important. Last year, the scoring difference between the #4 QB and the #12 QB was about 1 fantasy point per game, which in the scheme of things is close to nothing. To take Brady many rounds before several others IMO is not worth it (but that is a personal preference).

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Please post your receiving projections for the Pats to come up to 3800-4000 passing yards and 28 TD.

Player - rec/yds/TDDillon - 22/186/1

Maroney - 27/261/1

Faulk - 38/319/1.5

Branch - 78/1093/5

Caldwell - 49/675/3.5

Jackson - 30/413/3.5

T.Brown - 25/291/2

Watson - 35/472/5

Graham - 17/210/2.5

Total - 326/3958/25

 

[David Yudkin]

Please post your receiving projections for the Pats to come up to 3800-4000 passing yards and 28 TD.

Player - rec/yds/TDDillon - 22/186/1

Maroney - 27/261/1

Faulk - 38/319/1.5

Branch - 78/1093/5

Caldwell - 49/675/3.5

Jackson - 30/413/3.5

T.Brown - 25/291/2

Watson - 35/472/5

Graham - 17/210/2.5

Total - 326/3958/25

Rinse and repeat, this time compensating for Branch skipping the first 10 games of the season (just humor me . . . it might or might not happen). I like the half touchdowns. Nice touch. Do players get three points for those?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I like the half touchdowns. Nice touch. Do players get three points for those?

A half a touchdown is worth three points in my league. I don't know about yours.If I flip a coin once, the expected number of heads is 0.5. That doesn't mean I think it'll land on half a head that one time. It means there's a 50% chance of zero heads and a 50% chance of one head.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Rinse and repeat, this time compensating for Branch skipping the first 10 games of the season (just humor me . . . it might or might not happen).

If Branch doesn't play, things will be different. But he'd have to be mentally handicapable to sit out ten games. The chance that it'll happen is very small, IMO.

 

[Z-Dog]

Two main points:

1. Will Tom Brady's stats decline? Some people have pointed out that the Patriots have very little by way of experience WRs. True, but the Patriots have been getting away with sub-par WRs for years. It's hard to see Brady going over 4k with this receiving group, but it's not unreasonable to assume that he will be at about 3700 yards and 26 TDs. The question then becomes where do you think that will land him in the rankings. I submit that it's most likely to rank him between 7-10, based on where that production would have landed him in previous years.

2. Who do you rank over Brady, and specifically, who do you put at #2? Personally, I have no problems with putting Eli, Hasselbeck, or even Drew Bledsoe up at that spot. Hasselbeck had a great season last year despite a mediocre WR corps. The return of DJax and the addition of Burleson, as well as a liekly decline in the running game due to the loss of Hutchinson could see Hasselbeck with a shot to break 4K, with a pretty high floor too. Manning continued to improve last year, lost nobody important on offense, and with Sinorice Moss and Tom Carter battling for the 3rd spot at WR, he has a few more toys to play with. And finally, Bledsoe. The guys is as close to a lock for playing 16 games as you get at QB. He put up 3600 and 23 TDs last year, in his first year in Dallas. This year, he swaps Keyshawn Johnson for Terrel Owens. As long you dont' get penalized to heavily for INTs, Bledsoe is a legitimate contender for the #2 overall spot, imo.

Given the uncertainties surrounding quite a few QBs, I'd probably take Brady as high as the 4th or 5th overall QB b/c of his consistency, but I would not pull the trigger on him as the 2nd or 3rd QB off the board.

 

[aposulli]

Please post your receiving projections for the Pats to come up to 3800-4000 passing yards and 28 TD.

Player - rec/yds/TDDillon - 22/186/1

Maroney - 27/261/1

Faulk - 38/319/1.5

Branch - 78/1093/5

Caldwell - 49/675/3.5

Jackson - 30/413/3.5

T.Brown - 25/291/2

Watson - 35/472/5

Graham - 17/210/2.5

Total - 326/3958/25

Give a little less for Faulk and a little for Garrett Mills who will no doubt catch some TDs and has looked awesome in preseason.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Best... Admin... ever.

 

[walkmac]

I suggest we reverse engineer HOW Brady is going to get enough fantasy production to merit his #2 ADP.

I agree, given all of the circumstances it is going to be tough for him to get back to #2. Conversely, however, if you have him in the 10-12 range, who are the 10 guys who you feel will sure-fire finish ahead of him?

1. Peyton (yes)

2. Hass (lost JJ and DJax's knee is still giving trouble)

3. Carson (knee)

4. C-Pep (knee, new coach/team/system)

5. McNabb (abdominal injury, new OC, WRs have questions)

6. Bulger (16 games? - I know you can't predict injuries, but this is a legitimate question with him)

7. Warner (see Bulger; also, trouble converting in the red zone last year, rookie QB in the wings, better RB)

8. Eli (tailed off last year after a hot start)

9. Vick (numbers have always failed to match hype)

10. Bledsoe (TO may hurt more than help)

11. Delhomme (Smith's hammy bothering him)

12. Farve (what are INT's worth in your league?)

13. Plummer (lost OC, new WR, Smith is not ageless)

14. Brooks (see preseason performance)

15. Green (Gonzo coming off mediocre (by his standards) season, WR's average)

16. Ben Roth (passing numbers have never been out of this world)

17. Rivers (essentially a rookie)

18. Brees (new team/system)

19. Kitna (new team/system)

20. Carr (see first 4 seasons)

This is a minor sampling, and some of the players on the list above will post numbers that will exceed Brady's numbers this season. But will ten of them do so?

 

[David Yudkin]

I suggest we reverse engineer HOW Brady is going to get enough fantasy production to merit his #2 ADP.

I agree, given all of the circumstances it is going to be tough for him to get back to #2. Conversely, however, if you have him in the 10-12 range, who are the 10 guys who you feel will sure-fire finish ahead of him?

1. Peyton (yes)

2. Hass (lost JJ and DJax's knee is still giving trouble)

3. Carson (knee)

4. C-Pep (knee, new coach/team/system)

5. McNabb (abdominal injury, new OC, WRs have questions)

6. Bulger (16 games? - I know you can't predict injuries, but this is a legitimate question with him)

7. Warner (see Bulger; also, trouble converting in the red zone last year, rookie QB in the wings, better RB)

8. Eli (tailed off last year after a hot start)

9. Vick (numbers have always failed to match hype)

10. Bledsoe (TO may hurt more than help)

11. Delhomme (Smith's hammy bothering him)

12. Farve (what are INT's worth in your league?)

13. Plummer (lost OC, new WR, Smith is not ageless)

14. Brooks (see preseason performance)

15. Green (Gonzo coming off mediocre (by his standards) season, WR's average)

16. Ben Roth (passing numbers have never been out of this world)

17. Rivers (essentially a rookie)

18. Brees (new team/system)

19. Kitna (new team/system)

20. Carr (see first 4 seasons)

This is a minor sampling, and some of the players on the list above will post numbers that will exceed Brady's numbers this season. But will ten of them do so?

I have to run, but the issue isn't really which exact ones will do better than Brady, it's the fact that they won't COST as much to get Brady. There are several guys on that list that stand a decent chance to outproduce him and can be had at a sizeable discount (compared to Brady's asking price in a draft). As I alluded to in one of my other posts, the scoring differential at QB last year (and seemingly this year) is very small.Better stated, why pay $100 for second row seats when you can pay $50 for fifth row seats?

 

[cr8f]

He throws to everyone and anyone. I don't see him dropping below #2. He'll throw to Dillon, Maroney, Branch, Caldwell, the TE's(Watson will be a star), Chad Jackson, Faulk, Pass, etc.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I suggest we reverse engineer HOW Brady is going to get enough fantasy production to merit his #2 ADP.

I agree, given all of the circumstances it is going to be tough for him to get back to #2. Conversely, however, if you have him in the 10-12 range, who are the 10 guys who you feel will sure-fire finish ahead of him?

1. Peyton (yes)

2. Hass (lost JJ and DJax's knee is still giving trouble)

3. Carson (knee)

4. C-Pep (knee, new coach/team/system)

5. McNabb (abdominal injury, new OC, WRs have questions)

6. Bulger (16 games? - I know you can't predict injuries, but this is a legitimate question with him)

7. Warner (see Bulger; also, trouble converting in the red zone last year, rookie QB in the wings, better RB)

8. Eli (tailed off last year after a hot start)

9. Vick (numbers have always failed to match hype)

10. Bledsoe (TO may hurt more than help)

11. Delhomme (Smith's hammy bothering him)

12. Farve (what are INT's worth in your league?)

13. Plummer (lost OC, new WR, Smith is not ageless)

14. Brooks (see preseason performance)

15. Green (Gonzo coming off mediocre (by his standards) season, WR's average)

16. Ben Roth (passing numbers have never been out of this world)

17. Rivers (essentially a rookie)

18. Brees (new team/system)

19. Kitna (new team/system)

20. Carr (see first 4 seasons)

This is a minor sampling, and some of the players on the list above will post numbers that will exceed Brady's numbers this season. But will ten of them do so?

If you approach it in that regard, though, you're drafting Brady because you think he's the safe pick, not because you think he's going to finish as the #2 QB. Over-valuing the safe player and drafting him before his point production dictates is not the way I'd be inclined to go, personally. Plus, that over-simplifies the drafting process at QB. For my money, I'd say it's likely Carson Palmer finishes with fewer points than Brady because he may miss the first few games of the season, but practically speaking I'd take Palmer over Brady with every intention of grabbing and playing a solid backup QB in those early games. And if you project Palmer to miss 3 games, I'd feel pretty solid projecting Plummer, Brees, or Warner * 3 games + Palmer * 13 games over Brady.

Maybe I'd miss on Palmer completely and find out the Bengals rushed him back and he missed the whole season, but I'd like my chances of winning a title better taking that approach.

 

[renesauz]

I suggest we reverse engineer HOW Brady is going to get enough fantasy production to merit his #2 ADP.

I agree, given all of the circumstances it is going to be tough for him to get back to #2. Conversely, however, if you have him in the 10-12 range, who are the 10 guys who you feel will sure-fire finish ahead of him?

1. Peyton (yes)

2. Hass (lost JJ and DJax's knee is still giving trouble)

3. Carson (knee)

4. C-Pep (knee, new coach/team/system)

5. McNabb (abdominal injury, new OC, WRs have questions)

6. Bulger (16 games? - I know you can't predict injuries, but this is a legitimate question with him)

7. Warner (see Bulger; also, trouble converting in the red zone last year, rookie QB in the wings, better RB)

8. Eli (tailed off last year after a hot start)

9. Vick (numbers have always failed to match hype)

10. Bledsoe (TO may hurt more than help)

11. Delhomme (Smith's hammy bothering him)

12. Farve (what are INT's worth in your league?)

13. Plummer (lost OC, new WR, Smith is not ageless)

14. Brooks (see preseason performance)

15. Green (Gonzo coming off mediocre (by his standards) season, WR's average)

16. Ben Roth (passing numbers have never been out of this world)

17. Rivers (essentially a rookie)

18. Brees (new team/system)

19. Kitna (new team/system)

20. Carr (see first 4 seasons)

This is a minor sampling, and some of the players on the list above will post numbers that will exceed Brady's numbers this season. But will ten of them do so?

I have to run, but the issue isn't really which exact ones will do better than Brady, it's the fact that they won't COST as much to get Brady. There are several guys on that list that stand a decent chance to outproduce him and can be had at a sizeable discount (compared to Brady's asking price in a draft). As I alluded to in one of my other posts, the scoring differential at QB last year (and seemingly this year) is very small.Better stated, why pay $100 for second row seats when you can pay $50 for fifth row seats?

David, I wholeheartedly agree with that last statement, but that wasn't the point. If he's ranked #10, then he's #10 regardless of WHERE in the draft they are drafted. The fellas here are trying to point out that they're having a very hard time picking TEN QB's to finish better.FYI: I put him about 8th myself, assuming a small decrease in numbers, but would consider him as high as the fifth QB depending on the risk taken with my other high draft picks. Brady is low risk, and seems as close to a lock as there can be to finish in the 5-10 area. While there are 10 or 12 QB's with higher upside potential, half of those also have a lower floor.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I suggest we reverse engineer HOW Brady is going to get enough fantasy production to merit his #2 ADP.

I agree, given all of the circumstances it is going to be tough for him to get back to #2. Conversely, however, if you have him in the 10-12 range, who are the 10 guys who you feel will sure-fire finish ahead of him?

1. Peyton (yes)

2. Hass (lost JJ and DJax's knee is still giving trouble)

3. Carson (knee)

4. C-Pep (knee, new coach/team/system)

5. McNabb (abdominal injury, new OC, WRs have questions)

6. Bulger (16 games? - I know you can't predict injuries, but this is a legitimate question with him)

7. Warner (see Bulger; also, trouble converting in the red zone last year, rookie QB in the wings, better RB)

8. Eli (tailed off last year after a hot start)

9. Vick (numbers have always failed to match hype)

10. Bledsoe (TO may hurt more than help)

11. Delhomme (Smith's hammy bothering him)

12. Farve (what are INT's worth in your league?)

13. Plummer (lost OC, new WR, Smith is not ageless)

14. Brooks (see preseason performance)

15. Green (Gonzo coming off mediocre (by his standards) season, WR's average)

16. Ben Roth (passing numbers have never been out of this world)

17. Rivers (essentially a rookie)

18. Brees (new team/system)

19. Kitna (new team/system)

20. Carr (see first 4 seasons)

This is a minor sampling, and some of the players on the list above will post numbers that will exceed Brady's numbers this season. But will ten of them do so?

If you approach it in that regard, though, you're drafting Brady because you think he's the safe pick, not because you think he's going to finish as the #2 QB. Over-valuing the safe player and drafting him before his point production dictates is not the way I'd be inclined to go, personally. Plus, that over-simplifies the drafting process at QB. For my money, I'd say it's likely Carson Palmer finishes with fewer points than Brady because he may miss the first few games of the season, but practically speaking I'd take Palmer over Brady with every intention of grabbing and playing a solid backup QB in those early games. And if you project Palmer to miss 3 games, I'd feel pretty solid projecting Plummer, Brees, or Warner * 3 games + Palmer * 13 games over Brady.

Maybe I'd miss on Palmer completely and find out the Bengals rushed him back and he missed the whole season, but I'd like my chances of winning a title better taking that approach.

For the sake of clarification, I want to say that I personally wouldn't be likely to draft Palmer unless I could get him in the 5th or 6th, as I'm targeting Delhomme later than these guys are going in nearly every league I'm in this year. I just think he's too good a value to pass up. This was just for illustrative purposes.

 

[David Yudkin]

Brady RANKS better than other QB because he plays every week. While that stability is nice, I'm not sure that other QB that might miss a game or two are worth that much less. Here are the QB totals in terms of fantasy points scored over the past three seasons. With Brady playing in every game, his TOTAL of points is exceptional. However, there are other players that have averaged more points per game (or close to Brady) which can be had much later on. We can debate all night how much a fantasy point per week on average (or thereabouts) really means when you factor in the difference in draft spots.

Rank, Player, Games Played, Total Fantasy Points, PPG Average

1 Peyton Manning 48 1033.25 21.5

2 Trent Green 48 902.20 18.8

3 Daunte Culpepper 37 873.60 23.6

4 Tom Brady 48 869.10 18.1

5 Matt Hasselbeck 46 840.95 18.3

6 Brett Favre 48 838.80 17.5

7 Aaron Brooks 45 813.90 18.1

8 Donovan McNabb 40 808.20 20.2

9 Jake Delhomme 48 799.40 16.7

10 Jake Plummer 43 779.65 18.1

11 Marc Bulger 37 749.70 20.3

12 Drew Brees 42 704.85 16.8

13 Kerry Collins 42 704.50 16.8

14 Drew Bledsoe 48 678.15 14.1

15 Steve McNair 36 627.85 17.4

16 David Carr 44 613.40 13.9

17 Byron Leftwich 40 606.75 15.2

18 Michael Vick 35 603.50 17.2

19 Joey Harrington 45 577.90 12.8

20 Carson Palmer 30 527.45 17.6

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm a Brady owner in my main dynasty league, and if I could get value for him equal to where he is often ranked now I would, but most guys in my league see this the same way I do.....he likely won't repeat his numbers from last year.