Tom Moore quietly leaves Colts (1 Viewer)

[GregR_2]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/23865/on-tom-moores-quiet-departure-from-colts

Sounds like Tom Moore has left the Colts staff, sans announcements. Moore has been the OC throughout Peyton's time in the NFL.

 

[bostonfred]

I've got a theory on this, but I don't think you can "prove" it with data very easily. It seems like when a top coordinator or coach leaves a team, and is replaced by someone who recognizes that the previous guy was a legend and is going to keep most of their system in place, they're fine the first year. Maybe even a little better. The players know the system well enough to guide it, the new guy can make their tweaks here and there with the system, and other coaches don't know the new guy's tendencies well enough to know which adjustments he'll make.

But in year two, things start to go downhill. Now there's more player turnover, so the vets and coaches have to reteach the system to the new guys. Maybe the new guy starts playing with the system, but he's not as knowledgable about the details as the original guy was, so he makes mistakes. Or the new guy wants more of a running game than a passing game, so he starts calling more run plays. And these tweaks might work in a football sense, maybe they don't, but the old guy's system is starting to fade, and we're seeing the new guy make their mark.

Some examples off the top of my head:

- Barry Switzer takes the Cowboys to a Superbowl

- The much ballyhooed "Dungification" of the Colts offense didn't happen in year one

- The Patriots drop off hard in 2006, two years after Weis/Crennel leave

- Tomlin takes over for Cowher and has immediate success

In this case, Moore took off playcalling duties last year, IIRC, but he was still around. So I'd expect this year to be good. And I know that Manning is as much a coach on the field as anyone, so I'm not trying to knock him here. But with limited time this offseason to work together, and younger receivers who still don't know the "tree", we might still get some dropoff this year, and I'd expect Clark/Wayne to become big-time buys for 2012, assuming they're healthy, while I'd downgrade Manning, Garcon and Collie a bit, because I'd expect Manning to focus on the guys who still know Moore's system, and I'd expect Garcon and Collie to be stuck a bit on a learning curve.

 

[higgins]

I have zero direct knowledge/links to back this up, but, IIRC, Moore was leaving last off-season before Peyton talked him into coming back for 1 more. I don't believe they're going with an OC that is new to the team.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Switzer won the SB in year 2. I don't remember how much of Jimmy's staff he kept.

 

[Larrywarren]

I've got a theory on this, but I don't think you can "prove" it with data very easily. It seems like when a top coordinator or coach leaves a team, and is replaced by someone who recognizes that the previous guy was a legend and is going to keep most of their system in place, they're fine the first year. Maybe even a little better. The players know the system well enough to guide it, the new guy can make their tweaks here and there with the system, and other coaches don't know the new guy's tendencies well enough to know which adjustments he'll make. But in year two, things start to go downhill. Now there's more player turnover, so the vets and coaches have to reteach the system to the new guys. Maybe the new guy starts playing with the system, but he's not as knowledgable about the details as the original guy was, so he makes mistakes. Or the new guy wants more of a running game than a passing game, so he starts calling more run plays. And these tweaks might work in a football sense, maybe they don't, but the old guy's system is starting to fade, and we're seeing the new guy make their mark. Some examples off the top of my head: - Barry Switzer takes the Cowboys to a Superbowl- The much ballyhooed "Dungification" of the Colts offense didn't happen in year one- The Patriots drop off hard in 2006, two years after Weis/Crennel leave- Tomlin takes over for Cowher and has immediate successIn this case, Moore took off playcalling duties last year, IIRC, but he was still around. So I'd expect this year to be good. And I know that Manning is as much a coach on the field as anyone, so I'm not trying to knock him here. But with limited time this offseason to work together, and younger receivers who still don't know the "tree", we might still get some dropoff this year, and I'd expect Clark/Wayne to become big-time buys for 2012, assuming they're healthy, while I'd downgrade Manning, Garcon and Collie a bit, because I'd expect Manning to focus on the guys who still know Moore's system, and I'd expect Garcon and Collie to be stuck a bit on a learning curve.

Tomlin doesnt support your theory as although he did well enough in Year 1 ( 10-6, win division, eliminated WC ), he then wins the Superbowl in the 'things start to go downhill' 2nd year.I cant quite see the Dungy analogy either - he certainly wasnt taking over from a successful head coach in the first place and he left the Offensive coaches to run the offense. Year 1 the Colts as a whole improved to 10-6 and WC elimination and Year 2 they get to the AFC Championship game.Pats O in 2005 was 10th in scoring and 7th in 2006, D was 17th in points allowed in 2005 and improved to 2nd in 2006 - overall the Pats lasted a game longer in 2006 making the AFC Championship game.As for Colts next 2 years, I agree Manning is as much an onfield coach as anyone - but overall there's so many variables - I wouldnt worry about Collie and Garcon in 2012 as it'll be their 4th year with Manning - improved O Line play and a decent running game are going to be major factors and it may be that this year's draft O Line picks make a bigger impact in 2012 than this year.While we're on the Colts, Jim Caldwell does fit your theory pretty well, 14-0 in first 14 regular season games and a SB appearance regressing to a WC loss in year 2.

 

[pablito]

I have zero direct knowledge/links to back this up, but, IIRC, Moore was leaving last off-season before Peyton talked him into coming back for 1 more. I don't believe they're going with an OC that is new to the team.

Actually I think both he and Howard Mudd wanted to retire last year, but came back because of a snafu with their retirement plans that would have cost them some bucks.

 

[Steed]

I have zero direct knowledge/links to back this up, but, IIRC, Moore was leaving last off-season before Peyton talked him into coming back for 1 more. I don't believe they're going with an OC that is new to the team.

Actually I think both he and Howard Mudd wanted to retire last year, but came back because of a snafu with their retirement plans that would have cost them some bucks.

I remember it diffently. Wesrent they forced to retire or risk losing their pension till the league stepped in and closed a loophole.On a different note, this is what happens when you teach your pupil everything you know. Peytons been running friday practices all by himself for some time now.

 

[Adebisi]

- The Patriots drop off hard in 2006, two years after Weis/Crennel leave

This team went 12-4 and came within a Reche Caldwell dropped pass of the Super Bowl.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I've got a theory on this, but I don't think you can "prove" it with data very easily. It seems like when a top coordinator or coach leaves a team, and is replaced by someone who recognizes that the previous guy was a legend and is going to keep most of their system in place, they're fine the first year. Maybe even a little better. The players know the system well enough to guide it, the new guy can make their tweaks here and there with the system, and other coaches don't know the new guy's tendencies well enough to know which adjustments he'll make. But in year two, things start to go downhill. Now there's more player turnover, so the vets and coaches have to reteach the system to the new guys. Maybe the new guy starts playing with the system, but he's not as knowledgable about the details as the original guy was, so he makes mistakes. Or the new guy wants more of a running game than a passing game, so he starts calling more run plays. And these tweaks might work in a football sense, maybe they don't, but the old guy's system is starting to fade, and we're seeing the new guy make their mark. Some examples off the top of my head: - Barry Switzer takes the Cowboys to a Superbowl- The much ballyhooed "Dungification" of the Colts offense didn't happen in year one- The Patriots drop off hard in 2006, two years after Weis/Crennel leave- Tomlin takes over for Cowher and has immediate successIn this case, Moore took off playcalling duties last year, IIRC, but he was still around. So I'd expect this year to be good. And I know that Manning is as much a coach on the field as anyone, so I'm not trying to knock him here. But with limited time this offseason to work together, and younger receivers who still don't know the "tree", we might still get some dropoff this year, and I'd expect Clark/Wayne to become big-time buys for 2012, assuming they're healthy, while I'd downgrade Manning, Garcon and Collie a bit, because I'd expect Manning to focus on the guys who still know Moore's system, and I'd expect Garcon and Collie to be stuck a bit on a learning curve.

sign its reason we have Norv in SD.Gruden Kept monte kiffin in TB.Yes continuity is good, but sometimes its gets stale too.

 

[bostonfred]

- The Patriots drop off hard in 2006, two years after Weis/Crennel leave

This team went 12-4 and came within a Reche Caldwell dropped pass of the Super Bowl.

True, but Brady went from 4110 yards to 3400. Part of that was talent turnover, but that's included in the effect I'm describing.

 

[bostonfred]

Tomlin doesnt support your theory as although he did well enough in Year 1 ( 10-6, win division, eliminated WC ), he then wins the Superbowl in the 'things start to go downhill' 2nd year.

Roethlisberger dropped off from 34 TDs to 17. I should clarify that I'm talking more about the outstanding fantasy performers on the team than about team success. With the Colts, we're talking about Moore in the passing offense, and Dungy with the defense. The Colts defense allowed 298 points in Dungy's final year, and 307 the following year. They allowed 388 in year two after Dungy left. A new coach might make the Colts more of a running game, but I'd guess that they're far more likely to try to keep Moore's system in place early on. I doubt many coaches would be able to make the Colts a better passing offense, so I'd expect some dropoff in Manning's numbers, but I would expect Manning's veteran receivers to get a higher % of catches.

 

[bostonfred]

Switzer won the SB in year 2. I don't remember how much of Jimmy's staff he kept.

Jimmy Johnson was a defensive minded coach. The 1993 Cowboys allowed 229 points. In 94, Switzer's first year, they allowed 248. In 95, they allowed 291.

 

[bostonfred]

I cant quite see the Dungy analogy either - he certainly wasnt taking over from a successful head coach in the first place and he left the Offensive coaches to run the offense. Year 1 the Colts as a whole improved to 10-6 and WC elimination and Year 2 they get to the AFC Championship game.

My memory was off on this one though. Dungy's first year saw the Colts drop off from 413 to 349 points. Moore had been there for years at this point, but Dungy made his impact known in his first year. In Dungy's second year, they jumped back up to 447 points. But both Dungy and More were defensive minded coaches.

 

[Larrywarren]

It's difficult to know who was doing what but Clyde Christensen was the Colts' OC last year with Moore listed as an Offensive Assistant - realistically with Manning and Moore in the house you cant really see Christensen imposing any different personality on the Offense - I wonder whether it's really any different this year with Moore totally gone but Manning still there - apart from the obvious that they need better O Line play and following from that a better running game.

To me the most interesting coaching change this year, certainly on the coordinator level is Wade Phillips coming in as D Coordinator for the Texans. The Texans D was not good last year but a lot of starters missed time, this year they've invested heavily on D in the draft and brought in an elite coordinator and a new scheme - Phillips at San Diego and then his successors running the 3-4 have fared better than most v Manning so it'll be really interesting to see what happens between the Texans and the Colts this year.