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Tony Romo (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
My draft (10 player PPR redraft league) is this Sunday, and thanks to Footballguys' advice, I think I've come up with my strategy. It involves Tony Romo. Right now there are 6 "tier one" quarterbacks-

Aaron Rodgers

Michael Vick

Philip Rivers

Drew Brees

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

It seems like if you get one of these guys, you're set at the QB position- if you don't, it may be a question mark all year long. But according to Footballguys, Tony Romo is back healthy. Yet he's not being considered in this tier. I think he belongs there. Therefore, my plan is to wait as long as can (depending on how many of these guys get taken) and load up on an extra running back or two, maybe even an elite tight end (which I normally NEVER draft) and wait to get Romo. This should give me a clear advantage.

Thoughts?

 
I think there are plenty of questions about Manning's health, which to me makes it more of a top 5. Romo seems to be the consensus "next guy" but why isn't there similar discussion about Matt Ryan? In my league's scoring, he finished 20 points behind the bottom of that group (right alongside Freeman) and conceivably he should be better.

To keep this on topic...I think I prefer Ryan to Romo given the state of the Dallas OL and Romo's injury history.

 
In my 6 point passing TD league, I expect that Romo will go towards the end of the 2nd round. No doubt Vick and Rodgers are top 6 in my league, with Brees, Brady and Rivers going at the end of the 1st and beginning of the 2nd. The guys who picked an RB in the early picks of the 1st round (the teams taking Peterson, Foster, etc...), one of them will take him (in my league at least). Point is, I don't really see how you'll be able to wait more than 1 round past the top tier QBs.

 
He was my key to winning last year.

:kicksrock:

While his online ADP is sitting pretty low, my guess is it will start climbing very soon. I don't think you can go wrong with taking Romo or Rivers in the third.

 
Pssst...Big Ben's even better value. He's produced at the same per game level if not better the last 2 years and is more durable. And you can grab him in some cases 2 rounds later.

 
'TheDirtyWord said:
Pssst...Big Ben's even better value. He's produced at the same per game level if not better the last 2 years and is more durable. And you can grab him in some cases 2 rounds later.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: I've read about how undervalued Romo is a few different places so I expect his ADP to rise. Ben is under the radar but offers similar production.
 
'Reginald Cornsilks said:
'Andy Dufresne said:
Is there something wrong with the Tony Romo spotlight thread? :confused:
Click to expand...
Yes - it's tim. Every thought that pops into his head requires his own thread to keep his ego alive and nourished.
Click to expand...
First off, I don't start a lot of threads in the Shark Pool. The reason I didn't use the Romo spotlight thread is because it's a separate question, really one more of draft strategy rather than Romo's skills. I am intrigued by what others have written about Big Ben. Perhaps I could gain even more of an advantage by waiting for him...

 
'timschochet said:
'Reginald Cornsilks said:
'Andy Dufresne said:
Is there something wrong with the Tony Romo spotlight thread? :confused:
Click to expand...
Yes - it's tim. Every thought that pops into his head requires his own thread to keep his ego alive and nourished.
Click to expand...
First off, I don't start a lot of threads in the Shark Pool. The reason I didn't use the Romo spotlight thread is because it's a separate question, really one more of draft strategy rather than Romo's skills. I am intrigued by what others have written about Big Ben. Perhaps I could gain even more of an advantage by waiting for him...
Click to expand...
what was the question? Seems you were telling everyone what your strategy was because it was that important for the SP to know about in its own thread."Thoughts?" was seriously your question?

 
One thread per player is fine Tim. It helps follow along without a new thread every time someone has a new thought about a guy. Maybe we could combine this with the Spotlight thread. Seems most appropriate there

 
Oh and for the record I agree on your point about Romo. It didn't really seem you were actually asking a question there. So I guess I just "agree" on Romo

 
The problem with this strategy is that it seems nearly every fantasy website is advising the same thing. I wouldn't go into a draft knowing you were going to get Romo at his ADP and then fall apart if someone picks him before you. "Wait on QB until X are taken" is a fine strategy but pinning it on one player can be disastrous.

That being said, I think Romo is going to have a top 5 year and I would take him right after the other 6 are taken unless my draft spot allows me to wait one more round. I just think his ADP is going to keep climbing to where he's no longer a value.

 
I had this strategy in a start up dynasty draft last month. Starting at the 1.08 spot in a 12 team league I had planned to take Romo in the 5th round. The problem was I hadn't anticipated an early run on QBs and the top six you mentioned (plus Matt Ryan) were all taken by the end of the 3rd round - so I was forced to take Romo with my 4.05, but the pick before also went QB and fortunately for me he took Josh Freeman.

If you are planning to take Romo, fine, but have a contingency plan ready because he may not be there at your pick.

 
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I took Romo at pick 4.11 - I play in a keep 3 league. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, K and TD. My next pick will be at 5.11 - our draft is ongoing via email.

P Manning, Brees, Rogers, Rivers, Bradford and Vick were all keepers - Brady drafted at 2.03. Matt Ryan went at pick 5.01. I'm was betting Romo would have been taken before my 5th round pick - I think that strategy was a solid bet considering Ryan went at 5.01. There are now 2 teams that have not drafted or kept a QB. I am happy with the pick and round I was able to draft Romo and it seems to have started a run on the other teams grabbing their starting QB and backups as well.

 
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'Toomuchnv said:
Romo's 2011 schedule...

week 14 vs. NY Giants

week 15 at Tampa Bay

week 16 vs. Philadelphia

no thanks
Click to expand...
Things rarely shape up the way you think they will when you worry too much about the schedule. Romo will get his numbers against anyone. Who is going to cover Witten?

 
'Toomuchnv said:
Romo's 2011 schedule...

week 14 vs. NY Giants

week 15 at Tampa Bay

week 16 vs. Philadelphia

no thanks
Click to expand...
At home vs the Eagles, possible for a playoff berth? It'll be a high-scoring affair I'd guess...certainly not going to scare me off.The other thing I like about Romo is that his backup can be picked up late....and proved to be a good replacement last year.

 
I live in Dallas, so there is no way he last past the 3rd round....heck he may even go in the 2nd.

It's frustrating when he should be a value but isn't.

 
'gump said:
'Toomuchnv said:
Romo's 2011 schedule...

week 14 vs. NY Giants

week 15 at Tampa Bay

week 16 vs. Philadelphia

no thanks
Click to expand...
At home vs the Eagles, possible for a playoff berth? It'll be a high-scoring affair I'd guess...certainly not going to scare me off.The other thing I like about Romo is that his backup can be picked up late....and proved to be a good replacement last year.
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Plus I love the fact that the worst (only) chance for bad weather is week 15 in Tampa.
 
In the last few years I've had great success grabbing a top-tier QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds, but this year I'm questioning that strategy for the exact reason you guys mention. Romo was on fire last year before he went down, and Big Ben always puts up respectable numbers.

In terms of fantasy points per game, Big Ben was 7th with 20.2 fantasy points per game while Romo wasn't far behind at 9th with 19.8. The top 6 were the guys already mentioned as being in Tier-1, and surprisingly #8 is QB Matt Stafford.

I definitely won't be reaching for a QB this year, and if one of the top 6 is available in the 3rd-round it's a no-brainer, but I wouldn't cry if one of the next 2-3 fall to me in rounds 4-6.

 
'Raider Nation said:
'Toomuchnv said:
Romo's 2011 schedule...

week 14 vs. NY Giants

week 15 at Tampa Bay

week 16 vs. Philadelphia

no thanks
Click to expand...
Things rarely shape up the way you think they will when you worry too much about the schedule. Romo will get his numbers against anyone. Who is going to cover Witten?
Click to expand...
So you don't consider the schedule at all? Sorry...but if the title of the thread is romo is the key to WINNING this season you have to consider who he is playing in most leagues championship games...I don't know how good philly will be defending the pass but I am willing to bet they will be a top 5 pass defense. So imo I would look at other options to winning this season.
 
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'Raider Nation said:
'Toomuchnv said:
Romo's 2011 schedule...

week 14 vs. NY Giants

week 15 at Tampa Bay

week 16 vs. Philadelphia

no thanks
Click to expand...
Things rarely shape up the way you think they will when you worry too much about the schedule. Romo will get his numbers against anyone. Who is going to cover Witten?
Click to expand...
Giants defense might be as porous as they come,but they surely can sack a QB. and add JPP to that d-line..

but the 60,000 ft view is this:

like clockwork , for his career, Romo's #'s are atrocious in the month of December..

G W L T Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A A/G Y/G

21 9 12 0 369 602 61.3% 4234 21 20 80.3 7.03 6.24 28.7 201.6

can't ignore his career stats: his QB rating in December is just 80.3..

avg's a low 201.6 yards/gm. TD/int ratio of just 21/20..

as a former Romo owner who was bitten one too many times by him, no thanks, I'll pass..

 
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'cheatsheetwarroom said:
In the last few years I've had great success grabbing a top-tier QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds, but this year I'm questioning that strategy for the exact reason you guys mention. Romo was on fire last year before he went down, and Big Ben always puts up respectable numbers. In terms of fantasy points per game, Big Ben was 7th with 20.2 fantasy points per game while Romo wasn't far behind at 9th with 19.8. The top 6 were the guys already mentioned as being in Tier-1, and surprisingly #8 is QB Matt Stafford.I definitely won't be reaching for a QB this year, and if one of the top 6 is available in the 3rd-round it's a no-brainer, but I wouldn't cry if one of the next 2-3 fall to me in rounds 4-6.
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Thats a great point. They've been almost identical in my league's scoring over the past 2 years in PPG. He also has the easiest passing schedule in the NFL in 2011....according to Dodds.And he's going 2 rounds later.....hmmmmm....
 
I think a lot of people will be thinking about Romo, which will bring his value down. He's not flying under the radar.

-He's put up big numbers before

-He's got offensive weapons galore

-He seems to be embracing his role as the Cowboys leader.

-This is Romo's time. His window is getting smaller. He needs to get it done in the next few years.

NOW, there are always questions.

-O-line? Got pretty young. Are they gonna gel, or get Romo killed? It all starts here.

-Garrett is changing the culture in Dallas. Success? We know how Garrett calls an offense. Romo will be throwing to his weapons a lot.

-Can Romo take the next step? i.e., make better decisions/limit bad throws, perform better later in the season.????

If he's there to be drafted around #7 QB taken, I'll pull the trigger.

 
'Toomuchnv said:
'Raider Nation said:
'Toomuchnv said:
Romo's 2011 schedule...

week 14 vs. NY Giants

week 15 at Tampa Bay

week 16 vs. Philadelphia

no thanks
Click to expand...
Things rarely shape up the way you think they will when you worry too much about the schedule. Romo will get his numbers against anyone. Who is going to cover Witten?
Click to expand...
So you don't consider the schedule at all?
Click to expand...
Yeah... that's what I wrote.
 
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