***Top 10 OVER-rated List for 2008*** (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

Try and stick to Top 100-150 type players, but who in your mind will be drafted too early in a typical redraft league?

I'm talking about players that might go in say Rounds 1-2 but are "fool's gold" - Shaun Alexander for example.

Assume:

12 teams

Start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1D

PPR is up to you, but specify if you believe it is relevant.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

QB - Brady, Romo - just cant see a repeat of these numbers and they will get drafted early

TE - Gates is offically overrated. this year KW2,Witten,Gonzo all provided equal numbers take much much later.

RB/WR - I'll get back to you

 

[Banger]

McGahee. I liked him a lot and targeted him in every league going into the year. Next year he'll probably be ranked to high for my liking.

Rudi, if he's got a top 13 or so ranking.

 

[benm3218]

Ryan Grant will be over rated.

 

[Bossman]

These guys will definitly be drafted too high:

QB - Carson Palmer

RB - Frank Gore / Larry Johnson

WR - Chad Johnson / Plax Buress / M.Colsten

TE - Gonzo

K - Vinatieri

D - CHI

 

[Keys Myaths]

Brady for sure, just like Manning was drafted way too early in 2005. He'll be a top 2-3 pick, and regression to the mean is a #####.

Others: Jamal Lewis, Randy Moss, Jason Witten.

Just look for players having career years that look like an abberation compared to their career numbers. These players always get drafted way too early.

 

[Banger]

Brady for sure, just like Manning was drafted way too early in 2005. He'll be a top 2-3 pick, and regression to the mean is a #####.Others: Jamal Lewis, Randy Moss, Jason Witten.Just look for players having career years that look like an abberation compared to their career numbers. These players always get drafted way too early.

It will depend on where Lewis is ranked but I don't see him falling off a ton. I wouldn't touch him if he's ranked top 10ish but I'd take him in the 15-18 range if he's still on Clev. They've got a tremendous passing attack, young/improving line and he's the only guy in town. He's actually looked closer to the old Jamal than I expected.

 

[H.K.]

Greg Jennings will be drafted waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy too early next year

 

[Banger]

Greg Jennings will be drafted waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy too early next year

Agreed. I like Jennings and his talent but wouldn't touch him in the 10-15 range which is where he'll probably be ranked.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Greg Jennings will be drafted waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy too early next year

This is one I forgot.

 

[Joe T]

might be about 6 months too early on this thread.

I'll be sure to check back in though around May or June when this becomes relevant.

 

[NorrisB]

QB:

What I look for from this area is a 2nd year starting QB, that overperformed the previous year.

Derek Anderson

RB:

What I look for here is any young RB who has yet to carry the load.

Marshawn Lynch

Maroney (again)

Brandon Jacobs

Selvin Young

And Brian Westbrook (just dont like that situation next season)

WR:

What I look for here is QB situations that could possible implode next season.

1. Wesley Welker how often do slot receivers pick up back to back 1k seasons? See Stokley, Brandon

2. Roddy White I just dont see talent there, Laurent Robinson is their best receiver and that situation is BAD

3. Braylon Edwards (after DA implodes)

4. Kevin Curtis McNabb gone Kolb will kill his value)

5. Bernard Berrian - he's a one trick poney

 

[zamboni]

Greg Jennings will be drafted waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy too early next year

I agree with this one - I tend to look at guys that have very high TD totals that may not be replicated. I do think that Jennings will get better, but the TDs will likely come down as Driver gets a few more than he did this year and Jones probably picks it up a notch next year.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Dwayne Bowe....people always think a solid rookie campaign automatically will escalate stats in an upward trend in year 2 and deemed a stud by year 3. For every great rookie WR that escalates into stud-dome by year 3, there are probably 2-3 that will regress their 2nd year as a pro and wind up nothing more than a journeyman WR or out of the league by year 4.

I'll be people draft Bowe somewhere in the top 20-30 WR's...some may foolishly reach inside the top 20 for him...but he's more likely to be in the 30-50 range.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Dwayne Bowe....people always think a solid rookie campaign automatically will escalate stats in an upward trend in year 2 and deemed a stud by year 3. For every great rookie WR that escalates into stud-dome by year 3, there are probably 2-3 that will regress their 2nd year as a pro and wind up nothing more than a journeyman WR or out of the league by year 4.I'll be people draft Bowe somewhere in the top 20-30 WR's...some may foolishly reach inside the top 20 for him...but he's more likely to be in the 30-50 range.

Wait. You're saying that the #22 WR this year is going to be THAT much worse next year?

 

[maxwelledison]

Greg Jennings will be drafted waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyy too early next year

I agree with this one - I tend to look at guys that have very high TD totals that may not be replicated. I do think that Jennings will get better, but the TDs will likely come down as Driver gets a few more than he did this year and Jones probably picks it up a notch next year.

I also like Jennings but think he will be overvalued next year.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

QB: T. Brady, T. Romo

RB: M. Turner, E. Graham

WR: W. Welker, G. Jennings, B. Marshall

TE: A. Gates

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Dwayne Bowe....people always think a solid rookie campaign automatically will escalate stats in an upward trend in year 2 and deemed a stud by year 3. For every great rookie WR that escalates into stud-dome by year 3, there are probably 2-3 that will regress their 2nd year as a pro and wind up nothing more than a journeyman WR or out of the league by year 4.I'll be people draft Bowe somewhere in the top 20-30 WR's...some may foolishly reach inside the top 20 for him...but he's more likely to be in the 30-50 range.

Wait. You're saying that the #22 WR this year is going to be THAT much worse next year?

He's #22 and probably dropping in your league (better production was earlier in season). For arguement sake if he finishes the season as the #22 WR, I'd support ranking him in the 20-25 range but inside the top 20 is reaching in my book. Like I said, there are alot of rookie WR's who regress in year 2...you have to account for that factor.

 

[maxwelledison]

These guys will definitly be drafted too high:QB - Carson PalmerRB - Frank Gore / Larry JohnsonWR - Chad Johnson / Plax Buress / M.ColstenTE - GonzoK - VinatieriD - CHI

Not to be a d!ck but I disagree with most of these selections. In fact, a number of these guys may end up providing decent valuealmer- very disappointing this year and may slip into the 4th to 5th depending on the scoring system. I like that pick for a guy that I believe is a top 5 QB talent.Gore- again, disappointing year but he did prove he can stay in one piece which was my only real reservation about him. That situation is volatile but he will likely go off the board late early-mid 2nd (due to likely influx of WRs and QBs based on 2007 stats) and could provide top five pick numbers.LJ- not crazy about the guy but could be a steal in mid-to-late 2nd.CJ/Burress/Colston- three WRs who are having very solid years but are lost in the Moss/Edwards/TO love that is rampant in the leagues I am currently in. At least one of these guys will fall farther than they should because of injury (PB), slow starts (Colston) or other players on their team (CJ).I agree that Gonzo may be a bit overdrafted...Wes Welker is my pick for most overrated of 2008 (and I love the guy).

 

[gregjcross]

QB: T. Brady, T. RomoRB: M. Turner, E. GrahamWR: W. Welker, G. Jennings, B. MarshallTE: A. Gates

I cant believe nobody is saying ADP & Mcfadden! WowOnly because every Rookie and Soph RB is overrated!

 

[Dought Man]

Brandon Marshall will be taken way too high next year. With Javon Walker back healthy... Stokely in the slot, and the fact that they want to run more anyway.. I dont think his numbers will be any better than they have been this year. I dont trust Cutler either...

I would be very surprised to see Marshall be anything more than a 980/7 guy next year... still a very good receiver.. but he is not top 10 as some may believe he will be.

 

[Sweeper]

I'll mark this thread although I don't agree with what I've read so far.

 

[PranksterJD]

QB: T. Brady, T. RomoRB: M. Turner, E. GrahamWR: W. Welker, G. Jennings, B. MarshallTE: A. Gates

I cant believe nobody is saying ADP & Mcfadden! WowOnly because every Rookie and Soph RB is overrated!

Beat me to it, at least partially. Peterson will go where he belongs. McFadden will be drafted super early with people trying to chase ADP's production from this year.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Brett Favre. In some leagues he'll be taken somewhere in the QB5 to QB7 range based on this year's numbers. He may not regress to his disastrous 2006, but he won't repeat this year, either.

 

[zamboni]

WR: W. Welker

Good one - and I agree.Welker is a very good receiver, but I think his numbers are going to come down, as with the Pats passing totals overall. Kind of reminds me of Stokley when Manning had his record year, although Welker at least is the 2nd option (if that) in the passing game.

 

[wickster33]

WR: W. Welker

Good one - and I agree.Welker is a very good receiver, but I think his numbers are going to come down, as with the Pats passing totals overall. Kind of reminds me of Stokley when Manning had his record year, although Welker at least is the 2nd option (if that) in the passing game.

That, of course depends on him remaining the #3 receiver. I would not be at all surprised to see Randy move on next year after he has his ring. The fact remains that Brady loves throwing to this guy.Still, I'm hoping to find a buyer for him during the off season in my keep 3 league.

 

[BelichicksRevenge]

WR: W. Welker

Good one - and I agree.Welker is a very good receiver, but I think his numbers are going to come down, as with the Pats passing totals overall. Kind of reminds me of Stokley when Manning had his record year, although Welker at least is the 2nd option (if that) in the passing game.

That, of course depends on him remaining the #3 receiver. I would not be at all surprised to see Randy move on next year after he has his ring. The fact remains that Brady loves throwing to this guy.Still, I'm hoping to find a buyer for him during the off season in my keep 3 league.

My bet is that they keep sign Moss and cut stallworth. Welker will remain in the slot and the other receiver will be Gaffney or Chad Jackson

 

[Utter Chaos]

These guys will definitly be drafted too high:

QB - Carson Palmer

RB - Frank Gore / Larry Johnson

WR - Chad Johnson / Plax Buress / M.Colsten

TE - Gonzo

K - Vinatieri

D - CHI

Not to be a d!ck but I disagree with most of these selections. In fact, a number of these guys may end up providing decent valuealmer- very disappointing this year and may slip into the 4th to 5th depending on the scoring system. I like that pick for a guy that I believe is a top 5 QB talent.

Gore- again, disappointing year but he did prove he can stay in one piece which was my only real reservation about him. That situation is volatile but he will likely go off the board late early-mid 2nd (due to likely influx of WRs and QBs based on 2007 stats) and could provide top five pick numbers.

LJ- not crazy about the guy but could be a steal in mid-to-late 2nd.

CJ/Burress/Colston- three WRs who are having very solid years but are lost in the Moss/Edwards/TO love that is rampant in the leagues I am currently in. At least one of these guys will fall farther than they should because of injury (PB), slow starts (Colston) or other players on their team (CJ).

I agree that Gonzo may be a bit overdrafted...Wes Welker is my pick for most overrated of 2008 (and I love the guy).

Looks like he was listing players that were overrated for 2007

 

[EBF]

TJ Housh - Most overrated WR in FF right now. He's top 5 in the dynasty rankings. Nuff said.

 

[Keys Myaths]

TJ Housh - Most overrated WR in FF right now. He's top 5 in the dynasty rankings. Nuff said.

He's the #5 WR in FF right now. How is he THAT overrated?

 

[EBF]

TJ Housh - Most overrated WR in FF right now. He's top 5 in the dynasty rankings. Nuff said.

He's the #5 WR in FF right now. How is he THAT overrated?

In terms of raw talent he's probably not even one of the top 15 WRs in the NFL. He's a slightly above average player capitalizing on an ideal situation. I don't like to bank on that kind of player long-term.

 

[H.K.]

Dallas Clark

Injury and circumstance have seen him get 30 more targets this year than he's ever had in a season for his career...and there are still three games left.

Next year Gonzalez will have experience and Harrison should return....their targets are going to have to come from somewhere, and I doubt they come from Wayne.

 

[maxwelledison]

Dallas ClarkInjury and circumstance have seen him get 30 more targets this year than he's ever had in a season for his career...and there are still three games left. Next year Gonzalez will have experience and Harrison should return....their targets are going to have to come from somewhere, and I doubt they come from Wayne.

I hadn't thought of this. Probably very accurate.

 

[Sweet Love]

Old guys that will slow down:

Derrick Mason - WR - Has been solid in PPR, but this offense will have an entire offseason to refocus

Tony Gonzalez - TE - The presence of Bowe has certainly drawn attention away from him, but he too is getting old, and if KC adds another receiving threat in the offseason, his numbers will continue to decline.

Jamal Lewis - RB - Impressive year, but I just can't see him keeping this pace up next year. The thing with him is that we have been calling for his pending demise for a couple of years, that he actually may not be a pre-6 round pick in typical redrafts next year...if that is the case, he may swing to the other side of the pendulum.

Young guys that won't keep up:

Ryan Grant - RB - Great story, but even if GB does not bring in a serious outside challenge to his job, Brandon Jackson is still there and may start to take away some of the workload.

Derek Anderson - QB - Another impressive year, but I would not be surprised to see him go Top 5 in QBs next year and I am curious if teams will be able to figure him out in the offseason.

Just others guys that won't hit their ADP:

Lav Coles - WR - This is Cotchery's show now and the fact that he has been injured and put up good TD numbers may lead people to believe if he is healthy entering 2008, that he will increase those numbers...I don't think so...I am curious to see on average if Coles slips behind Cotchery in ADP next year (assuming both healthy).

Larry Johnson - RB - If he reamins a top 8 overall pick going into next year, I think people will be in for more disappointment. That is mostly based on whether KC takes big strides in overhauling their O-Line. If not, and he is healthy, I would expect the same type of numbers you are seeing from Gore this year (RB3).

 

[Da Guru]

TJ Housh - Most overrated WR in FF right now. He's top 5 in the dynasty rankings. Nuff said.

He's the #5 WR in FF right now. How is he THAT overrated?

In terms of raw talent he's probably not even one of the top 15 WRs in the NFL. He's a slightly above average player capitalizing on an ideal situation. I don't like to bank on that kind of player long-term.

I agree about TJ. Very good WR?? No doubt.... but TJ has been a good value the last couple of seasons, to get him next year you have to take him very early. Will he still have a solid season? Probably, but I don`t expect the same numbers as this year.

 

[wadegarrett]

so when do we get to see this list?

 

[MCguidance]

just a few that i am not sure that were mentioned because i didnt feel like reading the above posts...

derek anderson

adp - i will def be in the minority here; assuming he is top 3; not overrated from his average draft position this year

gates- but then i think that he is ALWAYS top 5 whereas the others like witten and winslow have to prove their stock through staying power

underrated? can we start a new thread? didnt check so maybe someone did?

boldin

rudy (i guess you could make a case he could be overrated?)

marvin harrison - might take the biggest drop bc of people looking at his age

i guess ill post others as i think more..

 

[fightingillini]

Players coming off of career years are great candidates to be overvalued for 2008

T Brady, T Romo, B Edwards, TJ Housh, G Jennings, J Witten, W Welker, B Roethlisberger, Dallas Clark

Out of this group, Brady and Jennings will be the most overvalued. Brady is having a career year and will regress......history tells us that. I still feel that he will toss 30-35 TDs next year, but I can get P Manning or Palmer a round later and fill that top 5 pick will a stud RB. Jennings has relied on TDs for his value.....TDs are hard to predict and could easily go down.

Players that emerged this year and don't have a constant track record tend to be overvalued as well.

RGrant, E Graham, S Young (if Henry is gone), D Bowe, D Anderson, B Marshall

 

[burd]

i disagree about antonio gates in that i don't think he will be drafted as high in '08 as he's been the past couple of seasons. the norv turner lead chargers have been exposed and that whole offense will not perform at the level as when Shot ran things. id be surprised if someone drafted him as highly as in years past.

 

[Wadsworth]

TJ Housh - Most overrated WR in FF right now. He's top 5 in the dynasty rankings. Nuff said.

He's the #5 WR in FF right now. How is he THAT overrated?

What's he done since Chris Henry got back from suspension? About 290 yards and 1 TD in 5 games? 10 TDs in 9 games without Henry and 1 TD in 5 games with Chris Henry. In a PPR league you can add in 34 catches which is nice. But his value in a non-PPR league next season could fall well below where many are projecting him currently.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

I don't understand how people can say ADP will be overrated next year? He's running behind the best line in football and that offense can only get better with improved QB play. Unless the Oline gets hit with injuries I don't see how his performance could go down enough to label him overrated.

Aside from probably LT2 I can't fathom taking anyone over ADP.

 

[Banger]

I don't understand how people can say ADP will be overrated next year? He's running behind the best line in football and that offense can only get better with improved QB play. Unless the Oline gets hit with injuries I don't see how his performance could go down enough to label him overrated.Aside from probably LT2 I can't fathom taking anyone over ADP.

Agreed. He's had a sick year despite a low # of carries.