Top 12 RB for 2014? (1 Viewer)

[Ack88]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

 

[donkshow]

Look at this list and the 2013 RB then comparing the 2013 to the 2012 definitely has me leaning towards the upside down draft concept next year and looking to take a bunch of late RBs and hope some hit to go along with my RB1. RB2BC is almost a given next year for me.

 

[FF Ninja]

Gore will be 31 and his contract says he'll be a cap casualty.

Ridley will be splitting touches with Vereen if he doesn't get replaced by a rookie or FA.

Murray was supposedly trade bait earlier this year. I think the Cowboys go get someone more durable.

If someone (Lattimore or Hunter) is handed the SF job outright, then they jump up the list pretty quickly.

If Foster is 100% healed, then he's easily back in the top 12.

 

[10tihwj]

It is hard to figure with all of the movement that is going to happen in the offseason, but you can certainly figure out where the expected dropoffs and jumps will be.

Dropoffs (to varying degrees):

Peterson (he's been basically ageless but it all starts for someone; next year is as good as any)

Gore (see above and add in actual options to replace him on his team's roster)

Stacy (expecting him to hold onto that job through the offseason is questionable at best; he couldn't even beat out Daryl Richardson)

Moreno (team keeps investing heavily in RBs to replace him; sooner or later one is going to get it)

Lynch (won't be a big dropoff, but I suspect Michael will begin to spell him and the passing game can only improve)

Murray (can't stay healthy; lucked out that Randle is terrible and his competition was injured)

Jumps (to varying degrees):

Ben Tate (should get a big payday and become a feature back)

T-Richardson (very probably a slow learner who will need a full offseason in the Colts organization)

L Bell (healthy offseason and line upgrades will help him)

Ridley (if this year has shown anything, it's that a timeshare is best for a healthy Ridley and Vereen)

Lacy (was down on him but has skills; GB is a good org. who should get him into shape)

Bernard (BGJE's days are numbered; too many weapons on that offense for Bernard not to succeed)

Holding Steady:

Foster (loses Ben Tate and will have all offseason to get his back right; be happy it isn't his legs/knees/ankles)

Morris (he's going to hold his existing value for awhile but don't expect a jump)

D Martin (should be 100% next year with new coach and improved passing attack)

 

[Ted Mullins]

Why so low on Bush? I know he is sorta old for an RB but he has been awesome this year, even in standard - perfect fit for that offense, has stayed healthy, and looks dangerous every time he touches the ball. Assuming everything else stays the same as far as his setup (mainly no new RBs added), I personally would put him squarely in your first group. I think your list is pretty good for putting it together this far ahead of time though, only gripe I have is that it will be tough for Gio to live up to that IF they keep giving BJGE a sizeable load.

 

[Ack88]

Why so low on Bush? I know he is sorta old for an RB but he has been awesome this year, even in standard - perfect fit for that offense, has stayed healthy, and looks dangerous every time he touches the ball. Assuming everything else stays the same as far as his setup (mainly no new RBs added), I personally would put him squarely in your first group. I think your list is pretty good for putting it together this far ahead of time though, only gripe I have is that it will be tough for Gio to live up to that IF they keep giving BJGE a sizeable load.

You are probably right on that. Bush has been very good this year. Bernard, to me, looks the part. His versatility and big play potential will only serve to enlarge his role. BJGE is steady enough to earn a place in a timeshare, but Gio's skills will only serve to increase his touches. He's top 5 for me in PPR going forward.

 

[FF Ninja]

Dropoffs (to varying degrees):

Stacy (expecting him to hold onto that job through the offseason is questionable at best; he couldn't even beat out Daryl Richardson)

Jumps (to varying degrees):

L Bell (healthy offseason and line upgrades will help him)

Ridley (if this year has shown anything, it's that a timeshare is best for a healthy Ridley and Vereen)

Holding Steady:

D Martin (should be 100% next year with new coach and improved passing attack)

Good call on Ben Tate. Don't know how I forgot him. He'll definitely be the biggest FA RB this offseason.

However, I disagree on Stacy. Fisher gave the veterans first crack but then Stacy did beat out Richardson. And he's done it soundly. I'm typically very skeptical, but Stacy is going to be a very solid RB2 next year even if things don't get better and he'll be top 12 if they find themselves a QB. That team has a few needs, but RB has to be down on their list. I think he's a lock to return as the starter next year after his performance so far.

Bell has been a workload guy only. I'm not too excited about his prospects next year. I'd say he's a hold steady guy at best. If Big Ben leaves then that's a dumpster fire.

Ridley looks like a guy on the verge of being replaced.

Mike James is out playing Martin right now. I don't think he goes back to getting 90% of his team's RB touches. He didn't even look good when healthy.

So I'd say Stacy is a jump, Bell is a steady, and Martin and Ridley see drop offs.

 

[FF Ninja]

Why so low on Bush? I know he is sorta old for an RB but he has been awesome this year, even in standard - perfect fit for that offense, has stayed healthy, and looks dangerous every time he touches the ball. Assuming everything else stays the same as far as his setup (mainly no new RBs added), I personally would put him squarely in your first group. I think your list is pretty good for putting it together this far ahead of time though, only gripe I have is that it will be tough for Gio to live up to that IF they keep giving BJGE a sizeable load.

I thought about mentioning him being moved into the top 12, but age and durability are issues. If he finishes the year healthy then he's gotta be considered top 12 but I'd say the chances of that are 50/50 at best.

 

[Max Power]

I'd buy Spiller to be a top 12 back next season. He has been banged up most of this season, and Jackson is turning 33 in February. The guy has major big play ability, he just needs to get healthy and some better play calling. Considering he was an oversight on the OPs list, just goes to show he is further off the radar than he should be.

I'm hating myself for typing this, but I also think McFadden can be a solid asset for a team next year. He is better suited to be in a committee than to carry a full load. Put him on a competitive team with some run blocking and I think he can put some good numbers with 10-15 touches a game.

 

[Ted Mullins]

Yeah, don't get me wrong - I think Gio has looked great. My concern is something I saw Sigmund mention on twitter in the last week or two - sometimes coaches give a talented guy a limited workload, and the player succeeds - but instead of expanding the workload, the coaches determine that the limited workload must be "just right" because the player is doing well on limited touches. It's bad logic IMO, but still something to be leery of. Jamaal Charles a few years ago is a great example of this. Still time for Gio to take the reins this season (although that would skyrocket his price next year).

If you want someone else who may see an increased workload next year and should be dirt cheap right now, you could check out Bernard Pierce. Ravens run game has been atrocious and Rice is still there, but I have a few diehard Ravens fan friends that are convinced Pierce will take over soon. That's a competently run team that usually has a nice run game so I would imagine they will clean up that o-line situation by next year.

Also, someone you mentioned in the OP - I really like what Lamar Miller brings to the table if he could become the clear lead back. There will likely be a massive change in leadership on that team though, so who knows what happens.

 

[Routilla]

I would have Stacy higher.

 

[C-Bound]

Agree Stacy is a jump but an improved QB isn't what he needs. He's been more than fine with Clemens and Bradford will be even better for him next year. The continued progress of the young WRs is what will keep him rolling.

 

[Ack88]

I would have Stacy higher.

I have Stacy as #11 overall, which depending on the size of your league, is low level RB1 and high level RB2. How high would you go? To be honest, I'm squirming a little bit putting him so high with such a small body of work, which I guess goes to show us that outside of a small handful of RBs, the rest of the rankings are extremely fluid.

 

[lyon812]

Dropoffs (to varying degrees):

Stacy (expecting him to hold onto that job through the offseason is questionable at best; he couldn't even beat out Daryl Richardson)

Jumps (to varying degrees):

L Bell (healthy offseason and line upgrades will help him)

Ridley (if this year has shown anything, it's that a timeshare is best for a healthy Ridley and Vereen)

Holding Steady:

D Martin (should be 100% next year with new coach and improved passing attack)

Good call on Ben Tate. Don't know how I forgot him. He'll definitely be the biggest FA RB this offseason.

However, I disagree on Stacy. Fisher gave the veterans first crack but then Stacy did beat out Richardson. And he's done it soundly. I'm typically very skeptical, but Stacy is going to be a very solid RB2 next year even if things don't get better and he'll be top 12 if they find themselves a QB. That team has a few needs, but RB has to be down on their list. I think he's a lock to return as the starter next year after his performance so far.

Bell has been a workload guy only. I'm not too excited about his prospects next year. I'd say he's a hold steady guy at best. If Big Ben leaves then that's a dumpster fire.

Ridley looks like a guy on the verge of being replaced.

Mike James is out playing Martin right now. I don't think he goes back to getting 90% of his team's RB touches. He didn't even look good when healthy.

So I'd say Stacy is a jump, Bell is a steady, and Martin and Ridley see drop offs.

Ridley looks like the best running back on the team every time he touches the ball. Any usage problems are because Belicheck likes to utilize multiple backs (like Carolina, like New Orleans), not for lack of talent. Likewise, as has been discussed elsewhere, Vereen and Ridley aren't competing directly for snaps. They're used situationally, just like last year with Ridley and Woodhead, or this year with Ridley/Blount and Bolden/Vereen.

This does limit Ridley's upside, because there's no guarantee each week that he'll get X touches; Top 10 should be reserved for backs that you know are getting the ball regardless of situation. But the reason he isn't top 10 is because of that unreliability, not because he's in any danger of being replaced.

 

[msudaisy26]

Dropoffs (to varying degrees):

Stacy (expecting him to hold onto that job through the offseason is questionable at best; he couldn't even beat out Daryl Richardson)

Jumps (to varying degrees):

L Bell (healthy offseason and line upgrades will help him)

Ridley (if this year has shown anything, it's that a timeshare is best for a healthy Ridley and Vereen)

Holding Steady:

D Martin (should be 100% next year with new coach and improved passing attack)

Good call on Ben Tate. Don't know how I forgot him. He'll definitely be the biggest FA RB this offseason.

However, I disagree on Stacy. Fisher gave the veterans first crack but then Stacy did beat out Richardson. And he's done it soundly. I'm typically very skeptical, but Stacy is going to be a very solid RB2 next year even if things don't get better and he'll be top 12 if they find themselves a QB. That team has a few needs, but RB has to be down on their list. I think he's a lock to return as the starter next year after his performance so far.

Bell has been a workload guy only. I'm not too excited about his prospects next year. I'd say he's a hold steady guy at best. If Big Ben leaves then that's a dumpster fire.

Ridley looks like a guy on the verge of being replaced.

Mike James is out playing Martin right now. I don't think he goes back to getting 90% of his team's RB touches. He didn't even look good when healthy.

So I'd say Stacy is a jump, Bell is a steady, and Martin and Ridley see drop offs.

Mike James has had one good game 28 for 158 and even Martin had one of them against the Saints with 29 for 144. To say he is out playing him is a stretch. I do think you could see more of a split next year like 70/30 but this is a lot like the Bryce Brown and Lesean McCoy situation from last year and look where it is now.

Ridley looks like the best back on the team when he gets the ball, I know Vereen looked very good in the first game of the year but might be one of those guys that just can't stay healthy. Ridley isn't going any where, he is still in his rookie contract and produces.

Stacy could be a drop off from what we have seen the last 4 games where he is producing like a top 5 or 6 back but not because he couldn't beat out Richardson. People need to stop down grading guys like Stacy and Miller because they couldn't beat out the guy that was there the year before during their first training camp. A rookie has a lot to learn and learn it fast, try to steal first team reps from the guys that were there last year, and earn a coaches trust in a short period of time.

 

[Ack88]

Dropoffs (to varying degrees):

Stacy (expecting him to hold onto that job through the offseason is questionable at best; he couldn't even beat out Daryl Richardson)

Jumps (to varying degrees):

L Bell (healthy offseason and line upgrades will help him)

Ridley (if this year has shown anything, it's that a timeshare is best for a healthy Ridley and Vereen)

Holding Steady:

D Martin (should be 100% next year with new coach and improved passing attack)

Good call on Ben Tate. Don't know how I forgot him. He'll definitely be the biggest FA RB this offseason.

However, I disagree on Stacy. Fisher gave the veterans first crack but then Stacy did beat out Richardson. And he's done it soundly. I'm typically very skeptical, but Stacy is going to be a very solid RB2 next year even if things don't get better and he'll be top 12 if they find themselves a QB. That team has a few needs, but RB has to be down on their list. I think he's a lock to return as the starter next year after his performance so far.

Bell has been a workload guy only. I'm not too excited about his prospects next year. I'd say he's a hold steady guy at best. If Big Ben leaves then that's a dumpster fire.

Ridley looks like a guy on the verge of being replaced.

Mike James is out playing Martin right now. I don't think he goes back to getting 90% of his team's RB touches. He didn't even look good when healthy.

So I'd say Stacy is a jump, Bell is a steady, and Martin and Ridley see drop offs.

Ridley looks like the best running back on the team every time he touches the ball. Any usage problems are because Belicheck likes to utilize multiple backs (like Carolina, like New Orleans), not for lack of talent. Likewise, as has been discussed elsewhere, Vereen and Ridley aren't competing directly for snaps. They're used situationally, just like last year with Ridley and Woodhead, or this year with Ridley/Blount and Bolden/Vereen.

This does limit Ridley's upside, because there's no guarantee each week that he'll get X touches; Top 10 should be reserved for backs that you know are getting the ball regardless of situation. But the reason he isn't top 10 is because of that unreliability, not because he's in any danger of being replaced.

I agree completely. The mitigating issue is there are not 10 NFL RBs that are both productive and dependable enough to fit that criteria, which is why IMO there is very little difference between RBs 9-22 for 2014 at this time.

 

[BlueDredSo]

Look at this list and the 2013 RB then comparing the 2013 to the 2012 definitely has me leaning towards the upside down draft concept next year and looking to take a bunch of late RBs and hope some hit to go along with my RB1. RB2BC is almost a given next year for me.

Yep, my WR situation has been a complete disaster this year even though my RBs are great. This particular team is miraculously going to be 7-3, but I'm worried going forward. I'm thinking I'll probably go RB-WR-WR next year unless Jimmy Graham falls to rd 2, and then see how the rest plays out.

 

[Ted Mullins]

I thought about mentioning him being moved into the top 12, but age and durability are issues. If he finishes the year healthy then he's gotta be considered top 12 but I'd say the chances of that are 50/50 at best.

Age is a definite concern with Bush, but he has actually only missed 2 games since the start of 2011, and that is with 250+ touches both of the last two years and 167 already this year. He also has a nice clear, cheap handcuff in Joique Bell. Assuming no big personnel changes, I will probably think of him as a top 5 guy next year (though he probably won't go that high).

I also agree with the mention of Spiller - if he continues to do little he should be cheap (for someone of his talent), and Fred Jackson will be a year older again next year. They are also running enough that F Jax does not need to completely go away for Spiller to succeed, it'd just be nice for Spiller to get ~65% and some red zone work imo. If his season continues as it has, there will be a bit of a resentment towards him and he will go in the 2nd round next year, but he should be a lot closer to what we expected going into this year.

 

[Da Gildz]

Not much mention of Spiller. He's been hurt all year, and was unquestionably a top 5 RB heading into this year. I still think he has a couple monster efforts to cap off this injury-riddled season.

Have a feeling someone is getting a top-5 option with him in round 3 next year.

 

[Ack88]

Not much mention of Spiller. He's been hurt all year, and was unquestionably a top 5 RB heading into this year. I still think he has a couple monster efforts to cap off this injury-riddled season.

Have a feeling someone is getting a top-5 option with him in round 3 next year.

He certainly has the talent, but I think top 3 is overstating even the best case scenario. Even if FJax goes, Buffalo will certainly draft an RB somewhere, as Spiller cannot handle the entire load by himself. I think your best case is top 7 with around 220 total touches. I just don't see how that total goes any higher than 220-230 at the outer range of the high end. To me, he's a mid to late second round pick next year.

 

[Leonidas]

The way things are shaping up I'm going to want gys like Morris, Lacy, Bell, and Bernard. And very possibly Doug Martin will be a value pick, IMO

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

 

[Ack88]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

In a redraft, I'll take Gore over Spiller for 2014. Gore still is playing excellent football.

In Dynasty, no question Spiller over Gore.

 

[bagger]

Look at this list and the 2013 RB then comparing the 2013 to the 2012 definitely has me leaning towards the upside down draft concept next year and looking to take a bunch of late RBs and hope some hit to go along with my RB1. RB2BC is almost a given next year for me.

as of right now my plan is to take jimmy graham in the first, then 3 straight WRs, and then maybe grab a RB in the fifth. But yes I am too looking to fill my team with RBBC backs in the 6-9 rounds and have the core of my team be WR/ Te points and fill in with high floor pass catching RBs or "2nd rbs" in rbbcs who have high upside to start and really just platoon the RB position. Wait on QBs like always.

 

[Da Gildz]

Not much mention of Spiller. He's been hurt all year, and was unquestionably a top 5 RB heading into this year. I still think he has a couple monster efforts to cap off this injury-riddled season.

Have a feeling someone is getting a top-5 option with him in round 3 next year.

He certainly has the talent, but I think top 3 is overstating even the best case scenario. Even if FJax goes, Buffalo will certainly draft an RB somewhere, as Spiller cannot handle the entire load by himself. I think your best case is top 7 with around 220 total touches. I just don't see how that total goes any higher than 220-230 at the outer range of the high end. To me, he's a mid to late second round pick next year.

Why 220? He had 250 touches last year, with 6.1 ypc average. This ankle issue isnt a function of him not being able to handle the load. It can happen to any back/offensive player. SJax suffering thru the same thing and he's 240 lbs. So i wouldnt really put any emphasis on this injury relating to his fantasy value. We saw what a healthy Spiller could do last year. And barring a big time finish, i dont think anyone is taking him mid-late 2nd rd next year. Hence, my value argument in rd 3.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

In a redraft, I'll take Gore over Spiller for 2014. Gore still is playing excellent football.

In Dynasty, no question Spiller over Gore.

Don't be clouded by Spiller's performance playing through a high ankle sprain. Love Gore as an NFL player but 31 year old RB with that many carries are going to disappoint a lot more often than not.

 

[Ack88]

Not much mention of Spiller. He's been hurt all year, and was unquestionably a top 5 RB heading into this year. I still think he has a couple monster efforts to cap off this injury-riddled season.

Have a feeling someone is getting a top-5 option with him in round 3 next year.

He certainly has the talent, but I think top 3 is overstating even the best case scenario. Even if FJax goes, Buffalo will certainly draft an RB somewhere, as Spiller cannot handle the entire load by himself. I think your best case is top 7 with around 220 total touches. I just don't see how that total goes any higher than 220-230 at the outer range of the high end. To me, he's a mid to late second round pick next year.

Why 220? He had 250 touches last year, with 6.1 ypc average. This ankle issue isnt a function of him not being able to handle the load. It can happen to any back/offensive player. SJax suffering thru the same thing and he's 240 lbs. So i wouldnt really put any emphasis on this injury relating to his fantasy value. We saw what a healthy Spiller could do last year. And barring a big time finish, i dont think anyone is taking him mid-late 2nd rd next year. Hence, my value argument in rd 3.

I stand corrected. I thought he had something like 220 last year.

So, I'm wrong on the number of touches. I still see what he did in 2012 as his ceiling, given his propensity to get dinged and the useage pattern by the Bills staff. If you could get him in round #3, I agree that would be good value. My guess is, and of course it varies from league to league, that others think like yourself and would take a shot in round #2. If you are risk aversive, which I admittedly am at the top of drafts, I'd pass on one of my first two picks. I do agree, though, that I'd take a crack in round #3 because the upside is too high to ignore.

 

[Ack88]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

In a redraft, I'll take Gore over Spiller for 2014. Gore still is playing excellent football.

In Dynasty, no question Spiller over Gore.

Don't be clouded by Spiller's performance playing through a high ankle sprain. Love Gore as an NFL player but 31 year old RB with that many carries are going to disappoint a lot more often than not.

Do you see him as a Top 10-12 RB next year?

 

[msudaisy26]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

In a redraft, I'll take Gore over Spiller for 2014. Gore still is playing excellent football.

In Dynasty, no question Spiller over Gore.

Don't be clouded by Spiller's performance playing through a high ankle sprain. Love Gore as an NFL player but 31 year old RB with that many carries are going to disappoint a lot more often than not.

Do you see him as a Top 10-12 RB next year?

If he is healthy I say yes, but this is the NFL anyone can go down.

 

[Da Gildz]

I cant imagine a 'healthy' Spiller NOT being a top 10-12 rb next year. He was 7th overall in my league last year with an average workload. If he is who we thought he was, then he'd be a bargain in rd 3 and even middle rd 2.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

In a redraft, I'll take Gore over Spiller for 2014. Gore still is playing excellent football.

In Dynasty, no question Spiller over Gore.

Don't be clouded by Spiller's performance playing through a high ankle sprain. Love Gore as an NFL player but 31 year old RB with that many carries are going to disappoint a lot more often than not.

Do you see him as a Top 10-12 RB next year?

Spiller - easily, IMO, with or without Fred Jackson. He would be a top 10 player this year if he were healthy.

 

[Da Gildz]

Also where is Ellington???? I think he's definitely in the top-15 conversation for next year. He cant possibly be getting the limited touches he's been getting this year. I see them dumping Mendenhall, adding another thumper type back and getting Ellington 15+ touches a game. That would def put him in the mid-high end RB2 list. Even non-ppr.

 

[Ack88]

As one of my squads is completely out of it, already thinking about the 2014 draft. Presuming non-ppr format, who are your top 12 RB for next season in a re-draft? Hoping I might be able to pluck someone from a less than studious owner. Mine:

1. Charles

2. ADP

3. McCoy

4. Lynch

5. Forte

6. Morris

7. Lacy

8. Bernard

IMO, becomes very unclear after these 8. I'd go:

9. Ridley

10. Gore

11. Stacy

12. Murray

but you also have to factor in

13. Foster

14. Martin

15. Bell

16. Moreno

17. Bush

18. CJ

19. Miller

20. Tate

21. Rice

22. Richardson

Be curious to get the pool's thoughts. Thanks.

ADP is a freak so I might regret this but no way I take him where others will at his age and wear/tear. Lynch is reaching that point where the falloff will happen quickly too. Love him the rest of this year but would be hard to invest next year especially with Michael and Turbin around. Gore is way too old.

Spiller and Martin way too low on your list.

In a redraft, I'll take Gore over Spiller for 2014. Gore still is playing excellent football.

In Dynasty, no question Spiller over Gore.

Don't be clouded by Spiller's performance playing through a high ankle sprain. Love Gore as an NFL player but 31 year old RB with that many carries are going to disappoint a lot more often than not.

Do you see him as a Top 10-12 RB next year?

Spiller - easily, IMO, with or without Fred Jackson. He would be a top 10 player this year if he were healthy.

Thanks for the response and the give and take.

 

[Ack88]

Also where is Ellington???? I think he's definitely in the top-15 conversation for next year. He cant possibly be getting the limited touches he's been getting this year. I see them dumping Mendenhall, adding another thumper type back and getting Ellington 15+ touches a game. That would def put him in the mid-high end RB2 list. Even non-ppr.

Good catch. I missed him.

He should be in the conversation. He's a legit 20 top candidate. At this time I'd put him just outside the top 20 for next year.

 

[FF Ninja]

Also where is Ellington???? I think he's definitely in the top-15 conversation for next year. He cant possibly be getting the limited touches he's been getting this year. I see them dumping Mendenhall, adding another thumper type back and getting Ellington 15+ touches a game. That would def put him in the mid-high end RB2 list. Even non-ppr.

 

[Shutout]

Well, I took the time to read this thread and its basically what I expected; we have succeeded in naming every RB with a pulse in some way or another which tells us this type of exercise is fun and day-dreamy but pretty much pointless because it just simply won't fall into place.

Go back just 4 months ago and look at the census top rankings and compare it to reality. I don't mention this to downplay the thread, just moreso to say that RB status changes so quickly compared to the other positions that it is very very difficult.

It would not look crazy at all if someone put together a list that turned out to be dead-on accurate at it looked like this:

Morris

Martin

Lacy

Stacy

MJD

McFadden

Bell

Wilson

That's about as unsexy as it gets and nobody would spend 5 minutes talking about it, but it could easily be the scenario. outside of seeing the obvious (like ADP or Charles this season), its just too difficult to rank this high turnover position against dozens of similar talents.

 

[JohnnyU]

1. Seastrunk

2. Charles

3. ADP

4 ....

5 ....

 

[BearsFan4Life]

I like the top 8 listed ....can't really argue much there ...think after that it is a big muddled mess and comes down to preference of players and divisions

 

[Ack88]

Well, I took the time to read this thread and its basically what I expected; we have succeeded in naming every RB with a pulse in some way or another which tells us this type of exercise is fun and day-dreamy but pretty much pointless because it just simply won't fall into place.

Go back just 4 months ago and look at the census top rankings and compare it to reality. I don't mention this to downplay the thread, just moreso to say that RB status changes so quickly compared to the other positions that it is very very difficult.

It would not look crazy at all if someone put together a list that turned out to be dead-on accurate at it looked like this:

Morris

Martin

Lacy

Stacy

MJD

McFadden

Bell

Wilson

That's about as unsexy as it gets and nobody would spend 5 minutes talking about it, but it could easily be the scenario. outside of seeing the obvious (like ADP or Charles this season), its just too difficult to rank this high turnover position against dozens of similar talents.

I completely agree. Projecting the top RBs for 2014 at this time is extremely difficult. I started this thread to get feedback and have some give an take around the less obvious choices for the top of the heap and to see if there were players I might try and target in some of my leagues.

For example, I have both Lacy and Bernard in my top 10 next year, meaning that at least one (Lacy, I think) is a first round pick in a redraft next summer. Seeing that I've gotten no pushback on my ranking of him, I'm assuming most feel the same way. This is why I love the Shark Pool when people stay topic focused; great debate on players. Thanks to all that have participated.

 

[Ack88]

Anyone else willing to take a crack at their top 12 redraft RBs for 2014?

 

[10tihwj]

Redraft?

1. Peterson, 2. Forte, 3. McCoy, 4. Charles, 5. Martin, 6. Lynch, 7. Bernard, 8. Lacy, 9. Ridley, 10. Morris, 11. Tate, 12. Foster

Top 12 RBs in fantasy football do not equal top 12 RBs in the NFL. Has to be right blend of personal talent, opportunity and team success. Can't run the ball when you're down all the time, must get enough touches to put up numbers and has to be able to turn those touches into points.

It's a crapshoot but personal and team health have to be taken into account in any scenario. Our seasons get derailed far faster when we draft guys who aren't making it through the season than they do when we play it safe and reach a bit on a guy.

FYI, I'm not buying Spiller as an every down back and suspect that the Bills do not either. We will all find out when the offseason is over, but the signs are there. He's been hurt a lot.

 

[Norcalhoya]

Anyone else willing to take a crack at their top 12 redraft RBs for 2014?

1. Charles

2. McCoy

3. Peterson

4. Forte

5. Lacy

6. Morris

7. Foster

8. Bernard

9. Bush

10. Spiller

11. Martin

12. Stacy

Starting RB for Seattle Seahawks would be somewhere in there. Lynch would be top 5 if he's still on the team, maybe still top 12 if he's somewhere else (obviously depends on landign spot). If Turbin or Michael were named the starter for 2014 then they might get a look (particurarly Michael), but that could have committee wrtiten all over it.

That would be my order.

 

[Deamon]

1. Charles

2. McCoy

3. AP

4. Forte

5. Morris

6. Lacy

7. Spiller

8. Lynch
9. Bell
10. Stacy
11. Martin
12. Bush
13. Tate
14. Bernard
15. Gore

 

[Da Gildz]

Also where is Ellington???? I think he's definitely in the top-15 conversation for next year. He cant possibly be getting the limited touches he's been getting this year. I see them dumping Mendenhall, adding another thumper type back and getting Ellington 15+ touches a game. That would def put him in the mid-high end RB2 list. Even non-ppr.

The guy is averaging over 7 ypc! ha. His year is very similar to that of Spillers' 2 yrs ago. Limited touches, huge production/per touch.

There cant be a player out there who's producing more per touch then Ellington.

Yes those #'s go down the with more use, but all he's done is maximize every opportunity. If they dont let this guy touch the ball 15+ times next year, then well, i'll be upset.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Chris Johnson, not discussed at all, or is that supposed to be theOP's no. 18? FWIW, he is no. 12 in my PPR. He is terribly frustrating to own, but throwing it out there nonetheless.

 

[FF Ninja]

Also where is Ellington???? I think he's definitely in the top-15 conversation for next year. He cant possibly be getting the limited touches he's been getting this year. I see them dumping Mendenhall, adding another thumper type back and getting Ellington 15+ touches a game. That would def put him in the mid-high end RB2 list. Even non-ppr.

The guy is averaging over 7 ypc! ha. His year is very similar to that of Spillers' 2 yrs ago. Limited touches, huge production/per touch.

There cant be a player out there who's producing more per touch then Ellington.

Yes those #'s go down the with more use, but all he's done is maximize every opportunity. If they dont let this guy touch the ball 15+ times next year, then well, i'll be upset.

When you've only carried the ball 54 times, I don't care if you've averaged 3 ypc or 9 ypc. That's a tiny sample size. The dude is a scatback playing for a coach that considers him a scatback. And he'll be in the exact same situation next year except instead of Mendenhall it'll probably be a better RB in front of him. He could be the next Spiller or he could be the next no name scatback that looked good in limited duty and never amounted to anything. Maybe he'll be the next Mewelde Moore - always playing well when given the chance, but only given the chance when the coach is forced to do so. Lots of possibilities, but probability says the Spiller/Charles is the least likely scenario.

You should just sell high so that you don't let Arians make you upset next year. If you really like him, then just buy him back after week 4 when he's still obviously the CoP back next year. I'm not saying it's right, just saying that's probably what's going to happen.

 

[Da Gildz]

Also where is Ellington???? I think he's definitely in the top-15 conversation for next year. He cant possibly be getting the limited touches he's been getting this year. I see them dumping Mendenhall, adding another thumper type back and getting Ellington 15+ touches a game. That would def put him in the mid-high end RB2 list. Even non-ppr.

The guy is averaging over 7 ypc! ha. His year is very similar to that of Spillers' 2 yrs ago. Limited touches, huge production/per touch.

There cant be a player out there who's producing more per touch then Ellington.

Yes those #'s go down the with more use, but all he's done is maximize every opportunity. If they dont let this guy touch the ball 15+ times next year, then well, i'll be upset.

When you've only carried the ball 54 times, I don't care if you've averaged 3 ypc or 9 ypc. That's a tiny sample size. The dude is a scatback playing for a coach that considers him a scatback. And he'll be in the exact same situation next year except instead of Mendenhall it'll probably be a better RB in front of him. He could be the next Spiller or he could be the next no name scatback that looked good in limited duty and never amounted to anything. Maybe he'll be the next Mewelde Moore - always playing well when given the chance, but only given the chance when the coach is forced to do so. Lots of possibilities, but probability says the Spiller/Charles is the least likely scenario.

You should just sell high so that you don't let Arians make you upset next year. If you really like him, then just buy him back after week 4 when he's still obviously the CoP back next year. I'm not saying it's right, just saying that's probably what's going to happen.

Why is he only a scat back? He averaged 20+ carries/game last 2 yrs in college. He weighs 200 lbs, Spiller by comparison is listed at 195. Charles/CJ/Mccoy all smallish type backs. I agree its a small sample but its clear he's being way under-utiliized. The one real chance he got 2 weeks ago, he puts up 160+ yds. I also dont think he needs to be a 3 down, feature back to be a legit fantasy force. Look at Gio this year, he's locked into a weekly RB2 with RB1 upside and i dont think he's even sniffed 20 carries in a single game yet

 

[SameSongNDance]

I foresee myself "reaching" for Gio next year.

 

[Shutout]

I am a bit (pleasantly) surprised to see Lacy finding his way comfortably into the top 10 pretty much across the board.

I own here in a few places and really hadn't given it a second thought that he may have that much perceived value.

 

[FF Ninja]

Why is he only a scat back? He averaged 20+ carries/game last 2 yrs in college. He weighs 200 lbs, Spiller by comparison is listed at 195. Charles/CJ/Mccoy all smallish type backs. I agree its a small sample but its clear he's being way under-utiliized. The one real chance he got 2 weeks ago, he puts up 160+ yds. I also dont think he needs to be a 3 down, feature back to be a legit fantasy force. Look at Gio this year, he's locked into a weekly RB2 with RB1 upside and i dont think he's even sniffed 20 carries in a single game yet

Because almost all of his runs are bounced outside or they are draw plays? His TD against the niners was against 6 in the box. People want to compare him and Mendenhall (I was very down on Mendy before the season, predicted he's lose his job mid-season) like they are apples to apples, but it's like when people were comparing the ypc of Lynch and Forsett. Running draw plays against nickel defenses is good for the ypc. When he's running between the tackles on first down against 8 in the box ten times a game then we can start to look at his ypc. So far he looks like a scatback and he plays the role of a scatback. And he does it well! But that doesn't mean he'll transition to 3-down back next year. Just being realistic. I'm not saying there's a 0% chance. Just a very slim one.

As for college, we're talking about the ACC. Let's not get into his college usage.