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Top 200 Forward (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter sj80
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Speaking of Upgrade/Downgrade, here's last week's report for Brees and Thomas:
Brees: The Rams defense has been a tough draw at times, but Brees and the Saints offense owned them in Week 12. The Lions are up in Week 13, but they aren't any scarier than the Rams. Brees might be the most valuable fantasy quarterback of 2016 when the dust settles.
Thomas: Thomas has emerged as the clear #1 receiver for Drew Brees. He had the best game of his young career in Week 12 and has bounced back from his two fumble game against Denver. He's a strong WR2 heading into a matchup with Detroit.
This week:
Brees: Brees was supposed to be money for fantasy leagues as long as he was at home. He let down his fantasy teams in Week 13 against Detroit, and has back-to-back tough road games against Tampa and Arizona coming up. He's still a QB1 entering the playoffs, but we are lowering expectations.
Thomas: Drew Brees came up small with three picks and no scores, and even though he was over 300 yards, Thomas had one of his weakest games of the season. The Saints face the rising Bucs defense twice in the next three weeks, so Thomas and the whole passing game is not the sure thing we thought they were a month ago.
Love the line in Thomas's downgrade for this week that the Saints passing game "is not the sure thing we thought they were a month ago". Um, just last week you were touting Brees as the most valuable fantasy QB of the season and Thomas was the clear #1 in NO and a strong WR2. Now, a week later, Brees is a QB1, but we need to lower expectations and Thomas and the passing game aren't as good as we thought. All that changed over 1 week.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
If anyone can consistently nail it week after week and have solid information going forward they would earn their keep, and our trust. Sure injuries play a role, but the wide swings from week to week is tough to handle. What percentage of accuracy would be considered solid? Seventy-five percent? Players rise and fall, fall and rise in a heartbeat except for a handful of clear studs. Rawls was well down the pecker order, now he's ascending - perhaps healthy? Booker, L Miller, what gives? Last night Fitzmagic to Marshall was touted as a nice matchup, pew, el-stinko JETS! Howard got the 49er's and looked like a superstar, but the week before with Chicago ailing it wasn't looking good for any Bears. Now Howard is a RB #1. What will he be this week or next? Yes, Mike Thomas was being anointed as the new #1 WR for NO. Where do we go from here?
Is it just too tough to predict, too many variables, is anyone really investing all the time and research? How about 65% accuracy?
Is it just too tough to predict, too many variables, is anyone really investing all the time and research? How about 65% accuracy?
MattFancy
Footballguy
I'm not even saying they have to always be accurate. I know no one is good a predicting the future. I just want consistency. How can you say one week that Brees is looking like one of the best fantasy QBs of the year and the very next week say we need to lower our expectations of him? Michael Thomas is the clear #1 WR in NO one week and the next week, maybe the NO passing attack isn't as good as we thought. Yes, I understand they have games coming up against Tampa and Arizona, but those aren't surprises to anyone. We all knew their upcoming schedule, it didn't just change over 1 week. Just be consistent with these things.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
This is normally one of my favorite articles to help aid trade value on Tuesday mornings. last week Tremblay's were out already. I'm hoping that remains the case.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Hooray it's out
shifty
Footballguy
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Got to go to MyFBG's and then run it that way. It's not on the weekly week 3 page yet. They post it there first.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Later and later each week.
Week 2 - 9:30am EST
Week 3 - 11:45am EST
Week 4 - 2:45PM EST (updated)
Week 2 - 9:30am EST
Week 3 - 11:45am EST
Week 4 - 2:45PM EST (updated)
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MattFancy
Footballguy
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
Short Corner
Footballguy
Word on the street is that the rest of the perfect draft articles will be up next week.
Just be thankful it's not "Tuesday" "Wednesday" "Thursday" "Friday" like in previous years.
Short Corner
Footballguy
IDK....I punted on the subscription years ago. Got duped into the mobile apps and those are worse. Only apps I have ever encountered that doesn't update automatically when they debug. You have to realize the data is stale, uninstall, and reinstall. Testing is obviously nonexistent.
How many did we get this year? 2?
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
I have a math question about the Top 200 Forward @Joe Bryant & @Bob Henry:
It appears to me that the spreadsheet still has Miami & Tampa Bay players calculated with only 13 games left (as if they still have a week 11 bye), if one divides the total points for rest of year by ppg.
Or, are these players expected to miss one game because of injury, etc.?
If not, this small oversight affects all of the calculated values...imo.
Am I wrong here? If so, I apologize.
EDIT for clarification: Also, in regards to "value", my observation may not change the "calculated value" as per the spreadsheet, but it affects the "perceived game by game value" for those who use ppg as a measure when using "replacement level" backups as a fill in for bye weeks (which I do)...does that make sense?
It appears to me that the spreadsheet still has Miami & Tampa Bay players calculated with only 13 games left (as if they still have a week 11 bye), if one divides the total points for rest of year by ppg.
Or, are these players expected to miss one game because of injury, etc.?
If not, this small oversight affects all of the calculated values...imo.
Am I wrong here? If so, I apologize.
EDIT for clarification: Also, in regards to "value", my observation may not change the "calculated value" as per the spreadsheet, but it affects the "perceived game by game value" for those who use ppg as a measure when using "replacement level" backups as a fill in for bye weeks (which I do)...does that make sense?
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Bob Henry
Footballguy
In each weekly iteration of the Top 200, I adjust each team according to their # of games remaining. So, keep in mind, the top 200 is comprised of multiple components - my forward projections and the weekly projections (offensive and IDPs). The combined projections create the Top 200 essentially.
With that said, I am projecting weeks 5 through 17, so Miami and Tampa Bay are based on 13 games while the remaining 30 teams are for 12.
Hope that helps.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
Thanks for the clarification Bob; that does help much.
I really love your work, so I hate to be pedantic, but this seems to mean that the PPG column is incorrect for the Miami and Tampa Bay players or the other 30 team's players. Example from this week:
If I understand you correctly, you are providing a forward projection on weeks 5-17 (13 games for TB & MIa/12 for the rest); yet, the non-TB/Mia player has virtually the same number games left, when I divide ROY by PPG - 13 games.
Or, I could do it this way:
1) 279.0 / 13 = 21.46 (Chart has 21.5 - correct) If ROY is only for 12 games, then it should be: 279.0 / 12 = 23.25
2) 275.8 / 13 = 21.22 (Chart has 21.1 - close enough)
Thus, while this may not affect the final value calculation result, it still has me confused on how to read this aspect of the Top 200 Forward.
Or, does the ROY column not include the Week 4 projections by other staff? Thus, the 13 games is correct for Buggs, but wrong for Roger (should be 12)?
Again, I love your work, and hate to be anal, but when a spreadsheet does not seem to add up in a way that I expect, I really want to figure out how to read it properly...especially since I use PPG more often than gross output. And of course, this may have nothing to do with your input, Bob; it may be all about the board software...I don't know.
EDIT: After some experimentation, I see that the ROY does not appear to include the Weekly Projections by other staff members.
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Short Corner
Footballguy
No they're terrible, I quit testing when they wanted to do 5 different apps that could all be handled by one.
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