Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
This is why I root for all my potential keepers to either miss the playoffs or get knocked out in the 1st round. Less wear & tear when it doesn't "count" (for us anyways).
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Top 5 picks next year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ghost Rider
- Start date
need2know
Footballguy
agree. no way he should be number 1. if you want to rank a RB first, I dont know how you dont put AP there. how is mccoy still top 5? where are the qbs on this list?
rjv
Footballguy
McCoy shouldn't be 5 simply because of the emergence of Brown and having no idea what the new coaching staff has in mind.
Warrior
Footballguy
Seriously?
Ya, he is as consistent as they come, Rodgers had a few bad games this year, so did Brees. I wouldn't argue if you put either one of those guys above Brady but this is my thinking, and every year someone drafts a quarterback in the top 5
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I think all QB's take a hit because there will be a lot to choose from next year. Brady/Rodgers/Brees/P. Manning/Ryan/Stafford/RGIII/Newton/Luck/Romo - and a whole slew of serviceable guys behind that. Unless you're in a 2 QB league I see no reason to value QB's highly next year.
I think Foster's value takes a hit as well. YPC down, tons of carries, line not as dominant as before, and now this irregular heartbeat. He's going to slip in drafts. Here's how I think a lot of drafts will go (I won't be taking QB's this high, even in our 6 point all TD league). People will avoid the "risky" RB's next year after being burned by McFadden, Mathews, Murray, etc. Here's my stab at the first two rounds. Everybody thought they had to have the "big 3" QB's in years past, or one of the top 4 RB's. Next year? People are going to be like crack whores chasing the big, physical, dominant WR's. Book it.
1) Peterson
2) Rice
3) Lynch (if no suspension - at least I'd draft him at 3)
4) Spiller
5) Calvin Johnson
6) Foster
7) Rodgers
8) Brady
9) Trent Richardson
10)Doug Martin
11)Alfred Morris
12)AJ Green
13)Drew Brees
14)Brandon Marshall
15)Dez Bryant
16)Julio Jones
17)Demarius Thomas
18)Jamaal Charles
19)Chris Johnson
20) Peyton Manning
21) RGIII
22) Gronkowski
23) Moreno/McGahee
24) Cam Newton
I think Foster's value takes a hit as well. YPC down, tons of carries, line not as dominant as before, and now this irregular heartbeat. He's going to slip in drafts. Here's how I think a lot of drafts will go (I won't be taking QB's this high, even in our 6 point all TD league). People will avoid the "risky" RB's next year after being burned by McFadden, Mathews, Murray, etc. Here's my stab at the first two rounds. Everybody thought they had to have the "big 3" QB's in years past, or one of the top 4 RB's. Next year? People are going to be like crack whores chasing the big, physical, dominant WR's. Book it.
1) Peterson
2) Rice
3) Lynch (if no suspension - at least I'd draft him at 3)
4) Spiller
5) Calvin Johnson
6) Foster
7) Rodgers
8) Brady
9) Trent Richardson
10)Doug Martin
11)Alfred Morris
12)AJ Green
13)Drew Brees
14)Brandon Marshall
15)Dez Bryant
16)Julio Jones
17)Demarius Thomas
18)Jamaal Charles
19)Chris Johnson
20) Peyton Manning
21) RGIII
22) Gronkowski
23) Moreno/McGahee
24) Cam Newton
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SSOG
Moderator
I would be over the moon to get Gronk at 22. He was going 10-15 this year, and since then his case for a top pick has gotten even stronger- he's continued with his stud ways, and the rest of the TE position fell to pieces. Graham returned to earth, Gonzo is retiring, Vernon is MIA, Finley is getting cut by GB... Gronk is all alone in tier 1, with Witten/Graham/Hernandez in tier 2, and then the rest of the league is left to fight over the Greg Olsens and Brandon Myerses of the world. And Gronk continues, year after year, to put up top 12 WR numbers from the TE position. There aren't 5 WRs who averaged more points per game than Gronk this year- I doubt there will be 5 WRs who get drafted before him next. His ppg average is essentially identical to AJ Green's. As a TE. This isn't like when Gonzo was dominating the other TEs by scoring like a WR2. Gronk deserves to be drafted in the first two rounds even in non-TE-required leagues as a legit wr1.Also, Charles at 18 would be all kinds of awesome. Not saying it won't happen (and I don't really have a problem with any of the RBs you rank ahead of him, although I disagree with most of the WRs), I'm just saying... This year, there weren't any RBs to love outside the top 3 picks. Next year, you can get a guaranteed top 10 back who happens to have the highest career ypc in history (a half yard ahead of second place Jim Brown) in the middle of the second. If that's next year's ADP, I'm going Charles/Gronk at the 12/13 turn and calling it a day.
100% agree on Gronk, he gives an advantage nobody else does. You could probably argue for him being higher (and im sure i will come august). I do think Graham makes a comeback and is a potential buy low. Playing through injuries that will require surgery, he still played fairly well. Even with the drops he posted above 65% catch rate i believe. And the offense speaks for itself
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Gronk definitely gives you a huge advantage at TE...when healthy. But his health is a slight concern. He has gotten hurt the last two years (albeit not until the playoffs last year). Sure, a broken bone can be considered a fluke, but it might show that he breaks down easier than other players. Again, when healthy, whatever owner has him has a huge advantage at TE, but his health issues cannot be ignored.
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Should have stated non TE mandatory league - which our league is. Agree Charles may be a bit low. He is boom or bust though as will any RB on a really bad team. If the team makes moves to get better then he could be a first rounder again. If they keep the current staff, Cassell and Bowe is gone then hard to see why he would be more consistent. I want consistency out of my RB1. Not one that can get 1 point in a playoff game. So I'm a bit biased on Charles. I did this all very quickly - your comments are valid.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I probably have Morris too low as well
I dont think his injuries are cause for long term concern. He wasnt the first (or last) bernard pollard victim, and he broke a bone blocking on an extra point. Just seems fluky to me, but i guess well see over time
Pipes
Footballguy
1. Adrian Peterson - Guy is a beast, easily best RB in the game
2. Calvin Johnson - Amazing year...won't have the same yardage in 2012 but the TD's should bounce back up
3. Aaron Rodgers - Best QB in the game and still a fantasy stud
4. Marshawn Lynch - Higher than most but still a safe bet for 1300 yards and 12-15 TD's
5. AJ Green - Athletic freak and is only getting better.
Next 5 - McCoy, RGIII, Brees, Rice and Charles
I don't like Foster next year with the mileage he's put on the last few years and the presence of Ben Tate (assuming he stays healthy). I like McCoy to bounce back as he just has too much talent and is still very young to not bounce back strong next year.
2. Calvin Johnson - Amazing year...won't have the same yardage in 2012 but the TD's should bounce back up
3. Aaron Rodgers - Best QB in the game and still a fantasy stud
4. Marshawn Lynch - Higher than most but still a safe bet for 1300 yards and 12-15 TD's
5. AJ Green - Athletic freak and is only getting better.
Next 5 - McCoy, RGIII, Brees, Rice and Charles
I don't like Foster next year with the mileage he's put on the last few years and the presence of Ben Tate (assuming he stays healthy). I like McCoy to bounce back as he just has too much talent and is still very young to not bounce back strong next year.
donkshow
Footballguy
We hear that every year, and every year Foster puts up Top 5 RB numbers.
No you don't
asuterlowe
Footballguy
Foster's yardage and pyc trended way down toward the end of the year. That said, you cant ask for better consistency with TD's and I still don't buy into Tate's presence hurting Foster (something we have been warned about for years). He's still probably top 5 but I think outside of Peterson the top tier of RB's is going to crowded next year.
SSOG
Moderator
No way. He had a high ankle sprain and a broken arm. Neither injury was chronic. The second did not result from a cascade from the first, which was long healed. One was a ligament injury and the other was a bone injury, so there's no commonalities. There is zero reason whatsoever to consider Gronk a heightened injury risk at this point. Hell, if anything, he gets bonus points for playing through injuries that would have sidelined lesser men. His health "issues" most certainly can- and should!- be ignored.
mikel0254
Footballguy
Because he's a top 10 RB while sharing the load. Because Gailey will likely be gone and there's no way they hire another guy who doesn't use Spiller. Because Jackson is going to be 32, and although he's a great backup, his days of being the unquestioned starter are over (not to mention the injuries are piling up for him). Because he's talented enough to be the number 1 RB next year if given the opportunity.In my league with my scoring, he's ranked as the 9th RB. He's done that with only 183 carries. Of the 8 above him, the next closest is Ray Rice with 254 (71 carries more). 3 have 300+, 2 have 290+, 1 at 270, and 1 at 267. There are also 15 RB's with more carries than him ranked well below where he is. Think what he could do with a starters number of carries?
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I disagree. Again, I am not saying his health is a major concern; just a slight one. But, IMO, you cannot ignore it when a player gets hurt in consecutive seasons, regardless of what injuries they were. The fact that it wasn't something chronic, like a hammy or knee for example, is definitely good, but it is something to consider. That is all I am saying.
EBF
Footballguy
Gronk also missed his entire final college season with injuries. He jumped into the draft as a junior despite not playing a down that year. It's the reason why he fell to the 2nd round of the draft. I do think his tall frame and violent playing style make him an above average injury risk.
Terpman22
Footballguy
6.5 YPC on a team with hardly any vertical threat, sharing the load with a 30+'er and can catch the ball outta the backfield.
SSOG
Moderator
Sure I can. Just watch me.
Nucker101
Footballguy
I'd love to see Gronk's ADP fall outside of the top 20. Gives you a great advantage at TE, and as someone who believes in VBD, I'd be all over him in the second round. 
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
I must be the only guy who doesn't play in a TE mandatory league
