Top-end outlier value and league size (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

Assume for the sake of argument that Graham and Gronk will put up close to what they did last year, and that there is a significant drop off to the next group of about 5-6 TEs who all put up between 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs. Does it make more sense to target Graham/Gronk early in an 8-10 or a 14-16 team league? Assume non-ppr, and otherwise standard scoring/lineup requirements. Obviously there are several factors that can influence the answer, but in a vacuum, how would you answer this question?

 

[FavreCo]

Assume for the sake of argument that Graham and Gronk will put up close to what they did last year, and that there is a significant drop off to the next group of about 5-6 TEs who all put up between 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs. Does it make more sense to target Graham/Gronk early in an 8-10 or a 14-16 team league? Assume non-ppr, and otherwise standard scoring/lineup requirements. Obviously there are several factors that can influence the answer, but in a vacuum, how would you answer this question?

I'll guess more valuable in 14-16 team leagues. Everyone team is watered down more so a TE that puts up big #'s is an advantage.

 

[Concept Coop]

Is your questions top-tier players, in general (any position)? Or Gronk and Graham?

Using VBD/VORP - Gronk's and Graham's value is more in a 10 team league. A 10 team league lowers the VBD of all positions (tier 1), but it doesn't affect them equally. The WR position is hurt the most, and the TE position (this year) is hurt the least.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Is your questions top-tier players, in general (any position)? Or Gronk and Graham?Using VBD/VORP - Gronk's and Graham's value is more in a 10 team league. A 10 team league lowers the VBD of all positions (tier 1), but it doesn't affect them equally. The WR position is hurt the most, and the TE position (this year) is hurt the least.

I was using Graham/Gronk as the example, but really my question regards top tier guy(s) when there is a significant gap to the next tier. The same question could go for Calvin at WR, or Rodgers/Brady/Brees at QB.

 

[DoubleG]

Assume for the sake of argument that Graham and Gronk will put up close to what they did last year, and that there is a significant drop off to the next group of about 5-6 TEs who all put up between 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs. Does it make more sense to target Graham/Gronk early in an 8-10 or a 14-16 team league? Assume non-ppr, and otherwise standard scoring/lineup requirements. Obviously there are several factors that can influence the answer, but in a vacuum, how would you answer this question?

I'll guess more valuable in 14-16 team leagues. Everyone team is watered down more so a TE that puts up big #'s is an advantage.

I don't agree with FavreCo on much - but I do agree here. The "x-value" (yeah, that's old school) of those top guys gives you and advantage over more teams - and in situations where overall scores will be lower (and probably more volatile). As such, the top tier players bring more of an advantage, as their given x-value is likely even higher against more teams.As an example, let's just say for the sake of the discussion, that you have the #1 TE, and the other TE are evenly distributed, for the most part, around the league (meaning that in a 10 team league, each team has one top 10-12 TE). That said, in a larger league that #1 TE might be going up against TE16 - granting a HUGE advantage point wise - even larger than if he were going against TE10 or TE12 - and once bye weeks and injuries hit, that advantage may be even larger - especially as the WW talent will be thinner in a larger league as well.Studs are valuable in any format - but even more so if they have a strong x-value in a system where the number of studs is smaller per team.

 

[Concept Coop]

Assume for the sake of argument that Graham and Gronk will put up close to what they did last year, and that there is a significant drop off to the next group of about 5-6 TEs who all put up between 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs. Does it make more sense to target Graham/Gronk early in an 8-10 or a 14-16 team league? Assume non-ppr, and otherwise standard scoring/lineup requirements. Obviously there are several factors that can influence the answer, but in a vacuum, how would you answer this question?

I'll guess more valuable in 14-16 team leagues. Everyone team is watered down more so a TE that puts up big #'s is an advantage.

I don't agree with FavreCo on much - but I do agree here. The "x-value" (yeah, that's old school) of those top guys gives you and advantage over more teams - and in situations where overall scores will be lower (and probably more volatile). As such, the top tier players bring more of an advantage, as their given x-value is likely even higher against more teams.As an example, let's just say for the sake of the discussion, that you have the #1 TE, and the other TE are evenly distributed, for the most part, around the league (meaning that in a 10 team league, each team has one top 10-12 TE). That said, in a larger league that #1 TE might be going up against TE16 - granting a HUGE advantage point wise - even larger than if he were going against TE10 or TE12 - and once bye weeks and injuries hit, that advantage may be even larger - especially as the WW talent will be thinner in a larger league as well.Studs are valuable in any format - but even more so if they have a strong x-value in a system where the number of studs is smaller per team.

Good points, but here is a counter argument:The smaller the league, the smaller the advantage of a single player. BUT - the less valuable depth is.In a 16 team league, one would be wise to trade Arian Foster for Chris Johnson AND Steven Jackson. However, in a 10 team league, that would be a bad trade. Johnson and Jackson are much closer to the baseline and, thus, worth much less in comparison to a guy with a weekly advantage like Foster. So - it depends on how we are going to measure value. Obviously in a big league, a player is going to have more value over replacement (VBD), from a numbers standpoint. But, trade value is much higher, the smaller the league.

 

[DoubleG]

Assume for the sake of argument that Graham and Gronk will put up close to what they did last year, and that there is a significant drop off to the next group of about 5-6 TEs who all put up between 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs. Does it make more sense to target Graham/Gronk early in an 8-10 or a 14-16 team league? Assume non-ppr, and otherwise standard scoring/lineup requirements. Obviously there are several factors that can influence the answer, but in a vacuum, how would you answer this question?

I'll guess more valuable in 14-16 team leagues. Everyone team is watered down more so a TE that puts up big #'s is an advantage.

I don't agree with FavreCo on much - but I do agree here. The "x-value" (yeah, that's old school) of those top guys gives you and advantage over more teams - and in situations where overall scores will be lower (and probably more volatile). As such, the top tier players bring more of an advantage, as their given x-value is likely even higher against more teams.As an example, let's just say for the sake of the discussion, that you have the #1 TE, and the other TE are evenly distributed, for the most part, around the league (meaning that in a 10 team league, each team has one top 10-12 TE). That said, in a larger league that #1 TE might be going up against TE16 - granting a HUGE advantage point wise - even larger than if he were going against TE10 or TE12 - and once bye weeks and injuries hit, that advantage may be even larger - especially as the WW talent will be thinner in a larger league as well.Studs are valuable in any format - but even more so if they have a strong x-value in a system where the number of studs is smaller per team.

Good points, but here is a counter argument:The smaller the league, the smaller the advantage of a single player. BUT - the less valuable depth is.In a 16 team league, one would be wise to trade Arian Foster for Chris Johnson AND Steven Jackson. However, in a 10 team league, that would be a bad trade. Johnson and Jackson are much closer to the baseline and, thus, worth much less in comparison to a guy with a weekly advantage like Foster. So - it depends on how we are going to measure value. Obviously in a big league, a player is going to have more value over replacement (VBD), from a numbers standpoint. But, trade value is much higher, the smaller the league.

All good points as well. As the OP didn't specifically talk about trading or depth, I was simply looking at "playable" value (i.e. the value to the team if said stud plays weekly - not necessarily counting trade value or sacraficing depth). The depth-sacraficing issue would usually only come up in one of two cases - 1) a trade (as you mentioned) or 2) an auction league (where you would have to spend money on studs that could have been spent on acquiring quality depth).

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Assume for the sake of argument that Graham and Gronk will put up close to what they did last year, and that there is a significant drop off to the next group of about 5-6 TEs who all put up between 700-900 yards and 5-7 TDs. Does it make more sense to target Graham/Gronk early in an 8-10 or a 14-16 team league? Assume non-ppr, and otherwise standard scoring/lineup requirements. Obviously there are several factors that can influence the answer, but in a vacuum, how would you answer this question?

I'll guess more valuable in 14-16 team leagues. Everyone team is watered down more so a TE that puts up big #'s is an advantage.

I don't agree with FavreCo on much - but I do agree here. The "x-value" (yeah, that's old school) of those top guys gives you and advantage over more teams - and in situations where overall scores will be lower (and probably more volatile). As such, the top tier players bring more of an advantage, as their given x-value is likely even higher against more teams.

As an example, let's just say for the sake of the discussion, that you have the #1 TE, and the other TE are evenly distributed, for the most part, around the league (meaning that in a 10 team league, each team has one top 10-12 TE). That said, in a larger league that #1 TE might be going up against TE16 - granting a HUGE advantage point wise - even larger than if he were going against TE10 or TE12 - and once bye weeks and injuries hit, that advantage may be even larger - especially as the WW talent will be thinner in a larger league as well.

Studs are valuable in any format - but even more so if they have a strong x-value in a system where the number of studs is smaller per team.

Right, but what are you passing up on by taking the #1 TE? It's not like you get Graham, and otherwise your team is the same. By reaching early for a top TE, you are passing up on the opportunity to take a starting QB, RB, WR, etc. Yes, Graham will give you a points advantage at the TE position every week, but because you used an early pick on a TE you may be at a weekly disadvantage at other positions. It's not enough to say that Graham has a high "x-value", he has to have a higher x-value than all the other players available at that point in the draft in order for it to make sense to take him.