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TRADE THREAD- President Trump signs Phase One of China agreement, China promises to double its purchases in 2020 (2 Viewers)

The Duff Man said:
1. You think China is not willing to impose more pain on their country than what US citizens are willing to put up with?

2. This is not a fixed market of only the US and one other country. Every country in the world is now looking to trade more with each other instead of the US. When this happens they minimize their pain, maybe prices are a little higher, while the US feels the full short term and long term effect of lost trade. 

3. Don't underestimate how much Trump is hated around the world. From first hand discussions with people in Canada, Asia and Europe, I know people that would rather suffer pain than see their leader capitulate to his style. 
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This, so much this!

 
Bucky86 said:
That's true. However, if I'm negotiating to buy a company and I find out the CEO just loaned the company cash to cover payroll for 2 months I'm learning that they're not negotiating from a position of strength anymore.
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Or they are saying, "so you are trying to hurt my guys, well, this is me pouring money on my guys so they won't really feel the pain. Take that!"

 
David Dodds said:
I am having a hard time keeping up.  Is Trump doing all these things or is he always out golfing? If Trump is impeached, would these things cease to move forward or would they keep happening under Pence?  I ask because I think things are happening because of the silent people doing these things while Trump is ####-talking with everyone on Twitter.
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Is this consistent with the behavior of a person wishing to be taken seriously and perceived as thoughtful?

 
David Dodds said:
All countries (including us) are going to feel pain from the tariffs.  Lots of articles on China in some serious trouble very soon if the tariffs continue.  I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals.  The other leaders were ignoring him.  He invoked tariff deadlines to force those talks.  Does anybody really believe none of the countries will renegotiate with him?  Are they all going to bet on the impending impeachment that must be just months away now?
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https://www.apbspeakers.com/blog/posts/2018/june/apbs-mark-blyth-shares-thoughts-on-the-possibility-of-a-trade-war/

When asked if the U.S. could win and fight a trade war tomorrow, Blyth responded by saying, “I think no because no one wins trade wars. Give me a historical example of a win in a trade war. I wouldn’t even know where to look.”

 
David Dodds said:
All countries (including us) are going to feel pain from the tariffs.  Lots of articles on China in some serious trouble very soon if the tariffs continue.  I think you are dishonest with yourself if you expect this to be the USA's long-term strategy.  Trump wants renegotiated trade deals.  The other leaders were ignoring him.  He invoked tariff deadlines to force those talks.  Does anybody really believe none of the countries will renegotiate with him?  Are they all going to bet on the impending impeachment that must be just months away now?
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Other countries may wait it out, the next Presidential election is 27 months away.

Does President Trump have a mandate to implement this policy of tariffs in your opinion? To define mandate loosely, do 51% or more of the voters support the President invoking national security to implement tariffs, even though that power is enumerated to the Congress in the Constitution? I think there is evidence that members of his own party oppose the tariffs, and I would say it isn't a stretch to think that most of the people who voted against him oppose the tariffs as well.

 
timschochet said:
3. The third argument is that tarrifs are awful, but other nations are imposing them already. If we threaten to impose them ourselves we can therefore scare the other nations enough to lower theirs in order to stop us. Our real goal is to actually have freer trade than we have now. 
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This was the last of the 3 arguments I examined a few days ago, in justification of Trump’s actions, and I suggested that it was probably the closest one to his way of thinking on the issue (Though after this morning’s tweet- “Tariffs are the greatest!” I’m less sure.) But it seems to be the gist of David Dodd’s argument. 

I think it’s an extremely flawed argument. Others have already noted the immediate flaws of expecting concessions from our trading partners. To this, I would add an even more important concern: long term resentment. When it comes to trade, we’re not supposed to be looking at one year down the line, or 5 years, but 10 years or 50 years. As in all things, Trump either lacks long range vision or simply doesn’t care. But we should. 

 
timschochet said:
I agree with David on this. What is the purpose, other than rude trolling, to bring up his posts on other issues? It has no bearing on whether or not he is right  or wrong on this issue. 

I strongly disagree with him on this issue, but it’s up to me to explain why. 
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I agree with you in theory, but Dodds brought up the "impending impeachment that must be just months away" and seemed to say that you can't simultaneously think the President is doing harm if you also think he spends too much time playing golf. If trolling and bad faith arguments are good for the goose ...

 
David Dodds said:
Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
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This is all well and good until I ask you to define "win" in this situation....that's always the catch :shrug:  

 
The Commish said:
This is all well and good until I ask you to define "win" in this situation....that's always the catch :shrug:  
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For Trump, he gets a win if leaders sit down with his team and he announces the USA now has better trade deals.

Before the tariffs, these trading partners were refusing to sit down with him.  It's hard for him to claim wins in trade when no one meets with him. And he will need to deliver on those wins to his base and the rust belt states if he has any chance to get re-elected.

I get people being mad at him for playing chicken with the world's economy, but his team is going to win this battle.  The USA will have better trade deals 6-12 months from now.

 
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timschochet said:
I agree with David on this. What is the purpose, other than rude trolling, to bring up his posts on other issues? It has no bearing on whether or not he is right  or wrong on this issue. 

I strongly disagree with him on this issue, but it’s up to me to explain why. 
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So far he's not made any cogent argument for his position that I have seen. It's all belief and emotion and bold assertations 

ETA: The post above this case in point

 
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David Dodds said:
For Trump, he gets a win if leaders sit down with his team and he announces the USA now has better trade deals.

Before the tariffs, these trading partners were refusing to sit down with him.  It's hard for him to claim wins in trade when no one meets with him. And he will need to deliver on those wins to his base and the rust belt states if he has any chance to get re-elected.

I get people being mad at him for playing chicken with the world's economy, but his team is going to win this battle.  The USA will have better trade deals 6-12 months from now.
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Other countries have all the leverage.  They can make deals with each other and freeze out the US, and many of those leaders have less to worry about in terms of short term accountability to their constituents, and most of them are more popular with said constituents. Also, because of our unique system of government the other countries can micro-target industries for tariffs to ensure that Trump and his associates suffer the most pain, as they have already been doing. In addition they all hate him (for good reason) and don't trust him (for good reason).

And even if we ignore all of those sticking points in this strategy- which are overwhelming- your argument depends on an assumption that the guy who couldn't book a Springsteen cover band to play his inauguration is definitely going to get China to come to the table hat in hand.

 
David Dodds said:
Most people don't walk into the car dealership, look at the sticker price and write a check for that amount.

You say no, that's too much.  You get the better stereo added, you get less than 2% financing.  A good negotiation means being the ####### at first and then saying yes only when it makes sense for you.  The dealership isn't going to sell you a car if it doesn't make sense to them.

The US will win a trade war, because Trump is that ####### who wins these types of things.  These leaders from countries that have had tariffs on our stuff and won't negotiate with Trump are going to find themselves on the outside looking in as their country's pain is going to be greater (in the short term) than ours because we buy everything.

Who blinks first?  Trump's team believes it won't be the US.  And as a few countries renegotiate, the pressure on those not renegotiating gets stronger.  

Just admit it already.  Trump's hardline policies on trade are going to work because he is negotiating from a giant position of strength because the current deals are awful for the US worker.
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Think of the WTO as CarMax.  Now rethink.

 
If I walk into a car dealership and say "That's too much," it's because I know there is another dealership across town who is ready to do business with me.

Which country is the other dealership in your analogy, David?

 
David Dodds said:
I get people being mad at him for playing chicken with the world's economy, but his team is going to win this battle.  The USA will have better trade deals 6-12 months from now.

  
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To clarify, Dave, what do the "better" trade deals look like so that I can judge success in this endeavor?

 
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dutch said:
To clarify, what do the "better" trade deals look like so that I can judge success in this endeavor?
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Everything is 6 months from now with him. Trumps big unveiling where he roots out all the corrupt politicians, trade deals, whatever. I’ll be happy if 6 months from now we aren’t still trying to track down kids and parents we locked up. 

I don’t understand how one person in this country, President or not, can unilaterally impose tariffs on trade at his whim. 

 
TobiasFunke said:
Other countries have all the leverage.  They can make deals with each other and freeze out the US, and many of those leaders have less to worry about in terms of short term accountability to their constituents, and most of them are more popular with said constituents. Also, because of our unique system of government the other countries can micro-target industries for tariffs to ensure that Trump and his associates suffer the most pain, as they have already been doing.
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Sure sounds like you're suggesting we'd be better off with Supreme Leader Trump.  :oldunsure:

 
Joe Summer said:
If I walk into a car dealership and say "That's too much," it's because I know there is another dealership across town who is ready to do business with me.

Which country is the other dealership in your analogy, David?
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And because I don't need the used car salesman to agree to vote with me at the UN.

 
ok, lets say this trade war moves beyond 6-12 months...let's pretend that China and Europe put together their own new trade deal, and exclude US entirely.

How long does it take before the rest of the world decides that the US dollar shouldn't be the worlds reserve currency any more?  How long will it take before oil is no longer traded vs the US Dollar?

 
David Dodds said:
For Trump, he gets a win if leaders sit down with his team and he announces the USA now has better trade deals.

Before the tariffs, these trading partners were refusing to sit down with him.  It's hard for him to claim wins in trade when no one meets with him. And he will need to deliver on those wins to his base and the rust belt states if he has any chance to get re-elected.

I get people being mad at him for playing chicken with the world's economy, but his team is going to win this battle.  The USA will have better trade deals 6-12 months from now.
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Well then, let's chalk it up as a win.....it's a bonafide lock that this going to happen regardless of whether it's reality or not :lmao:   

Based on your criteria here, he will certainly have a win....whether there are "better" deals or not obviously remains to be seen.  Whatever you do, please factor in the current, real impacts on the individuals of this country when you define what "better deals" looks like.

 
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David Dodds said:
For Trump, he gets a win if leaders sit down with his team and he announces the USA now has better trade deals.

Before the tariffs, these trading partners were refusing to sit down with him.  It's hard for him to claim wins in trade when no one meets with him. And he will need to deliver on those wins to his base and the rust belt states if he has any chance to get re-elected.

I get people being mad at him for playing chicken with the world's economy, but his team is going to win this battle.  The USA will have better trade deals 6-12 months from now.
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Why are you so confident the bold is true?

 
David Dodds said:
He wants to claim wins on trade deals whether they are real or can just be used to secure votes down the road.  This is what he ran on and a big reason I suspect he was elected.  I suppose if the world can stay strong and refuse to ever meet with him so he doesn't get the win(s), then he clearly won't win re-election.  These leaders were just ignoring his administration's calls to renegotiate because they don't see a need for new deals.

Donnie is using the tariffs to force the meetings.

It's an ####### tactic and one that could cripple the whole world's economy, but who better than Trump to be the ####### representing the US.  He doesn't care what others think about him.  He is that perfect daredevil playing chicken because he is fully willing to crash the whole thing.  

Other countries WILL BLINK.  Count on it.  
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I can only think of two or three hundred million other people I'd prefer, along with a few fairly well behaved animals and one plant.

 
urbanhack said:
Where is the $12 billion coming from?   Looks like this is just a payoff to keep them happy for the midterms.  
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They’re reinstating the estate tax, and seizing Carl Icahn’s and Wilbur Ross’s assets in retribution for all the global investments they still held months after telling the government they had divested themselves of any and all investments that could be perceived as a potential conflict of interest.  

J/K.  They’re going to cut Medicaid and veterans’ benefits.

 
urbanhack said:
Where is the $12 billion coming from?   Looks like this is just a payoff to keep them happy for the midterms.  
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Depression era program. Money is borrowed from the treasury, without congressional approval. Sasse doesn't approve. Murkowski wants a piece for seafood hurt by tariffs. Per NPR while I was driving. Thus far, the economic impact is limited. But the impact could grow.

 
Bucky86 said:
Maggie Jordan:‏ @MaggieJordanACN

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Whirlpool posted their worst day in over 30 yrs as execs blamed rising steel & aluminum costs for diminished earnings. "Global steel cost has risen substantially &, particularly in the US, they have reached unexplainable levels” Whirlpool stock fell 14.5% worst day since 10-19-87

3:02 PM - 24 Jul 2018
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Remember when Trump went to Indiana and saved that Carrier plant? 

 
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