Trading out of #1 spot (1 Viewer)

[Afro Samurai]

I drew the 1st overall pick in upcoming draft and every fiber of my being is telling me to get out of it. I have a bad feeling about LT this year and being drafted by me in the first round is usually the kiss of death.

There is an offer on the table to trade down to #5 in the first and pick up an additional second-rounder (#14 overall I believe).

Am I crazy?

 

[Stealthycat]

how many team ? redraft ? scoring ? lineups ?

too many variables ........ I like trading down in SOME formats though

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Short Answer: Yes

Long Answer: Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

 

[King of the Jungle]

What is with all of the AC questions in the Football Forum today?

Click here for your answer: The answer

 

[Shermanator]

Short Answer: Yes

Long Answer: Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

:( I never understood why anyone would consider trading down from #1 overall.

1st of all you get the #1 overall player (this year the #1 player BY FAR).

and 2ndly you also draft 3 players out of the top 21 players on the board (in a ten teamer).

I will admit there is a price tag for everything. But trading away LT this year is not a good move

 

[JBTV]

Yes, completely nuts, especially when the #1 pick has such a clear cut and talented backup. Just make sure you get Turner at your 6th/7th turn, and even if LT goes down you're fine.

 

[junk17]

Short Answer: YesLong Answer: Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

Hit the nail on the head!!!

 

[Pictus Cat]

Assuming 12 teams, 2RB 3WR

#1 LT

for

#5 LJ/Gore/Addai

&

#15 Mid RB2/Top 5 WR/Manning

Pick again at #24 & #25 and be a position filled ahead each round.

+1 Flex and/or PPR would make trade more valuable to you.

If you're down on LT, I wouldn't laugh at you.

 

[Ed4252]

What are the starting lineups?

getting the #5 and #14 is a great deal for the #1 imo if you have to start more than 2 RBs/3WRs etc.

 

[Lash]

LT and your LAST ROUND PICK will outscore pick #5 and pick #14

that settles ANY argument posted here unless someone brings up something like injury or madden curse or something else you can't predict

another way of looking at it is take Mr. Consistency Rudi Johnson ... multiply his scoring last year by two ... LT outscored Rudi x2

 

[gianmarco]

I love LT as much as the next guy, but let's not also assume he's going to put up career #'s like last year every year going forth. He had a record setting year with 33 TDs, 2300 combined yds and 56 receptions. As good as he is, he won't do that again.

I'm not saying to make this trade, but to think he will outscore two top 10 guys again like he was able to last year isn't wise.

 

[Ed4252]

Try and work some deals with the guy picking 3rd first so you could get LJ/SJax. If you could move from 5 to 3 without giving too much, you got great value with those two trades from moving down two spots.

 

[QuizGuy66]

LT and your LAST ROUND PICK will outscore pick #5 and pick #14

that settles ANY argument posted here unless someone brings up something like injury or madden curse or something else you can't predict

another way of looking at it is take Mr. Consistency Rudi Johnson ... multiply his scoring last year by two ... LT outscored Rudi x2

I'm pondering offering S Jackson and choice of Bush/Westbrook for LT2 in my (essentially) TD-only league.

-QG

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I drew the 1st overall pick in upcoming draft and every fiber of my being is telling me to get out of it. I have a bad feeling about LT this year and being drafted by me in the first round is usually the kiss of death.There is an offer on the table to trade down to #5 in the first and pick up an additional second-rounder (#14 overall I believe).Am I crazy?

I'm confused. If you have the 1st pick in a 12-teamer, you would have picks 1, 24, 25, 48, 49, 72, 73, etc. Are you saying you can trade the #1 overall pick for #5 and #14 overall? The only way someone can offer you the #5 and #14 picks is if it's a 9-team league (assuming serpentine draft). Please explain it to me, because I don't understand.

 

[Razon]

I'm confused. If you have the 1st pick in a 12-teamer, you would have picks 1, 24, 25, 48, 49, 72, 73, etc. Are you saying you can trade the #1 overall pick for #5 and #14 overall? The only way someone can offer you the #5 and #14 picks is if it's a 9-team league (assuming serpentine draft). Please explain it to me, because I don't understand.

Unless there have already been other trades.I have traded out of the number 1 spot twice (redraft and dynasty initial draft). Trading down a few spots both times. It burned me last year in the redraft legue but not in the dynasty league. Even then I had the strongest overall team according to DD in the redraft.I also have traded out of the 1st round a few times. I know that is a bit off the subject of the thread but only one time has it not turn out good for me. I have made the playoffs everytime but once and won 2 championships and 1 runner-up when trading down or out of the 1st round. One more example. 8th pick in a 16 team league. Pretty strong league. I trade out of the 1st round with the guy that had the 7th overall pick, getting his 2nd and 3rd round pick. We had a few more swaps in there and he had some of my late picks to balance it out. He didn't make the playoffs and I lost the championship game to a team that had Marshall Faulk. This was the year that he went on a tear at the end of the season, I had Stephen Jackson (rookie year) sitting on the bench. Almost started him in the championship game, that would have won the game for me, which was how close I was to winning. After trading out of the 1st round.So it depends on who you are and how confident you are in your abilities. If you are okay with playing matchup each week, giving up a sure-fire start each week player for more depth then do it. Don't take a crappy deal just trade out, make sure you get plenty of value for the pick. But it can pay off. But it can fail to. But so can the first overall pick too.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Yes, you are nuts.

 

[1huskerfan]

I had him last year, and in our scoring league, LT doubled up the number 2 RB. Essentially this would be the same as trading the #1 and #2 overall for the #5 and #14.

 

[BGP]

I drew the 1st overall pick in upcoming draft and every fiber of my being is telling me to get out of it. I have a bad feeling about LT this year and being drafted by me in the first round is usually the kiss of death.There is an offer on the table to trade down to #5 in the first and pick up an additional second-rounder (#14 overall I believe).Am I crazy?

No-one is going to say you suck as a GM if you select LT#1 and he turns out not to be worth it (due to injury or whatever).On the other hand, some might say you suck as a GM if you trade out of the #1 spot because you are afraid LT is going to get hurt and he turns in another outstanding season.So just pick LT

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

If you can get what the Chargers got for trading Eli Manning, go for it. If not, don't.

 

[doomsdaydoc]

LT is a sure fire pick and I would not trade him. PERIOD. you can make enough good picks around him to win- keep #1

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

I would advise everyone to read the Footballguys.com Blog every day. I am serious. There is some great content there. Jason Wood wrote on this subject

LaDainian Tomlinson: A fantasy stud even if his numbers drop significantly

Filed under: AFC West, Projections, Strategy, NFL, Footballguys, History, RB, Fantasy, Stats, Chargers — Jason Wood @ 2:40 pm

LaDainian Tomlinson destroyed the NFL record books last year, and in the process, single-handedly led many fantasy owners to their league titles. If you’re reading this blog, I’m sure you’re well aware of Tomlinson’s remarkable 2006 season totals.

348 rushes (2nd in NFL)

1,815 yards (1st in NFL, 17th best all-time)

28 rushing TDs (1st in NFL, 1st all-time)

56 receptions (7th among RBs)

508 yards (5th among RBs)

3 receiving TDs (T-2nd among RBs)

2,323 yards from scrimmage (2nd in NFL, 6th best all-time)

31 TDs (1st all-time)

In the process, he scored 427.10 fantasy points (using FBG scoring), which easily ranks as the best single-season in fantasy football history:

Rank Name Year Yards TDs FantPts

1 LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 2323 31 427.1

2 Marshall Faulk 2000 2189 26 374.9

3 Priest Holmes 2003 2110 27 373.0

4 Priest Holmes 2002 2287 24 372.7

5 Emmitt Smith 1995 2148 25 364.8

6 Shaun Alexander 2005 1958 28 363.8

7 O.J. Simpson 1975 2243 23 362.3

8 Terrell Davis 1998 2225 23 360.5

9 Ahman Green 2003 2250 20 345.0

10 LaDainian Tomlinson 2003 2370 17 344.1

11 Eric Dickerson 1983 2212 20 341.2

12 Marshall Faulk 2001 2147 21 340.7

13 Edgerrin James 2000 2303 18 338.3

14 Larry Johnson 2005 2093 21 335.3

15 Larry Johnson 2006 2199 19 333.9

16 Steven Jackson 2006 2334 16 329.4

17 Ricky Williams 2002 2216 17 323.6

18 Barry Sanders 1997 2358 14 319.8

19 Emmitt Smith 1992 2048 19 318.8

20 LaDainian Tomlinson 2005 1832 20 317.6

21 Edgerrin James 1999 2139 17 315.9

22 Marcus Allen 1985 2314 14 315.4

23 Marshall Faulk 1999 2429 12 314.9

24 Emmitt Smith 1994 1825 22 314.5

25 Jim Brown 1965 1872 21 313.2

Coming off that monster season, it’s not surprising that LT is the consensus #1 overall fantasy pick for 2007. But inevitably there are going to be those handful of league owners who when faced with the #1 pick are going to try to talk themselves out of drafting LT. The most common argument I’ve heard from contrarians is, “he can’t possibly duplicate last year’s numbers.”

I will agree that it’s HIGHLY UNLIKELY he’ll duplicate last year’s numbers. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say it’s unlikely he’s COME CLOSE to those numbers. You’re talking about a historical season, after all.

But here’s why LT should, barring injury, still be the lock, no-brainer #1 overall fantasy pick. EVEN IF HIS PRODUCTION DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, HE WILL STILL BE A FANTASY STUD.

Consider where Tomlinson would have ranked over the last five years under two scenarios:

Scenario A) 20% reduction from 2006 numbers = 341.7 fantasy points

Scenario B) 40% reduction from 2006 numbers = 256.3 fantasy points

Year A) 20% Drop B) 40% Drop

2006 RB1 RB6

2005 RB2 RB6

2004 RB1 RB7

2003 RB4 RB8

2002 RB2 RB9

Average RB2 RB7.2

Even if Tomlinson were to shave 20% of of last year’s numbers, he’s still a virtual lock for top 2-3 production. And under a more extreme scenario, where he shaves 40% off of his record-setting numbers, he STILL would be in line for a top-7 fantasy finish. HIGH CEILING, HIGH FLOOR = A no brainer. Do yourself a favor and don’t talk yourself into taking someone other than LT with the 1st overall pick this year.

I apologize for the formatting. But, check out the blog regularly for new and great content.