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Travdogg's positional rankings for the fantasy playoffs (1 Viewer)

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travdogg

Footballguy
This will be the last update of the season. Thanks for reading everyone, and I hope I didn't help crater anyone's season.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Lamar Jackson (4)

Tier 2:
2. Josh Allen (2)

Tier 3
3. Joe Burrow (3)
4. Jayden Daniels (5)

Tier 4:
5. Jalen Hurts (1), hasn't topped 28 passes since the week 5 bye. Rushing is elite but also feels somewhat tenuous to have at the very top.
6. Sam Darnold (NR), swing and a miss on this one for me. I was low on Darnold coming into the season, and slow to come around on him, then quick to jump on that 2-game stretch when Darrisaw went down, thinking ok, now the real Darnold shows back up (especially after that horrible 0 TD/3 INT game against the lowly Jags. 12 TDs in his last 4 games, only 3 game sunder 230 pass yards. I'd still argue its more O'Connell than Darnold (very interested in McCarthy next season) but done doubting it this year.

Tier 5:
7. Brock Purdy (NR), overreacted to his injury and the blizzard game. Throw that out he's been between 19-26 points every week since week 6. Could be in some shootouts with Rams/Dolphins/Lions left.

Tier 6:
8. Tua Tagovailoa (11)
9. Bo Nix (10)
10. Jared Goff (NR), very boom/bust with more games under 16 points than above but has 25+ point upside that more consistent guys don't have. Bills and 49ers could be shootouts, and Bears D predictably looks a lot worse without Eberflus.
11. Kyler Murray (8)

Tier 7:
12. Patrick Mahomes (7), ok everyone, I've moved him down. Just too many FGs in KC, and its kind of regardless of opponent. Big weeks were against TB/Car, which is a knock in retrospect.
13. Justin Herbert (9), has come back down from that really great month where he was 19+ every week. Still playing at an excellent level, just isn't translating fantasy wise. 16-1 TD/INT ratio for the season.
14. CJ Stroud (13)
15. Jameis Winston (NR), 9 INTs in 6 starts is classic Jameis, but Browns season is over, so no reason he won't be bombs away with a fair amount of garbage time. That was the case last week, as he put up 17 points, despite basically doing nothing well. Only game below 41 attempts was snow game against Steelers.

Dropped off: Baker Mayfield (6), time for an extremely hot take. His attempts are coming down, he's making more bad decisions, and the running game has been coming on. I think TB is going to follow that logic, and Mayfield's upside is gonna suffer. Wouldn't even consider him this week, and Dal/Car could be very run heavy scripts. Anthony Richardson (12), last omission, probably too low if the rushing scores stick, but they aren't as proven as guys like Hurts/Allen. Jordan Love (14), 1 game over 18 points since week 6, and his pass attempts are dwindling. Russell Wilson (15), 1 big game in last 4, and now Pickens is hurt, and I believe likely to miss AT LEAST 1 more game.
 
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RB
Tier 1:
1. Saquon Barkley (1)

Tier 2:
2. Derrick Henry (5)
3. Bijan Robinson (3)

Tier 3:
4. Joe Mixon (7)
5. Chase Brown (11)

Tier 4:
6. Jahmyr Gibbs (4)
7. Josh Jacobs (9)
8. De'Von Achane (8)
9. Chuba Hubbard (16)

Tier 5:
10. James Conner (13)

Tier 6:
11. Kyren Williams (10)
12. Alvin Kamara (2), high floor with 20+ touches on lock, but no ceiling with cratering offense looking at Rattler/Haener at QB.
13. David Montgomery (15)
14. Brian Robinson (26), this is one I re-evaluated during the bye. While I don't think Washington suddenly starts giving him 25 touches with Ekeler out, he has a TD in all but 1 game that he finished, and Washington has a nice schedule outside of Philly in week 16.
15. Breece Hall (6), no idea if he'll be back this week, so this is very much a hedge rank. Probably a low-end RB1 threat in any game he plays, schedule is great if he comes back with Jac/LAR/Buf.
16. Aaron Jones (19)
17. Tony Pollard (20)
18. Rico Dowdle (29), secretly a bellcow of late. 19+ touches for 98+ yards in 3 straight. Might have a better record if they'd phased Zeke out earlier. Car/TB next 2 weeks, before Eagles.

Tier 7:
19. Kenneth Walker (18)
20. Isaac Guerendo (21)

Tier 8:
21. James Cook (12)
22. Jonathan Taylor (14)
23. Najee Harris (28)
24. Rachaad White (23)
25. Rhamondre Stevenson (27)
26. Isiah Pacheco (22)
27. Tyrone Tracy (24)

Tier 9:
28. D'Andre Swift (25)

Tier 10:
29. Bucky Irving (17), kind of similar to Hall, but with tougher touch competition. More worried about the back than the hip.
30. Sincere McCormick (NR), Zamir White on IR (I'm not sure it matters, but can't hurt) and Abdullah being back in the 3rd down only role. Raiders run blocking has massively improved with Meredith at LG and moving JPJ to his natural Center position. Regardless of Mattison's health, I see no reason this isn't McCormick's job.

Dropped off: Nick Chubb (30), TD or bust, and comes off the field when trailing. KC/Cin/Mia could be nothing but trailing.
 
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WR
Tier 1:
1. Ja'Marr Chase (1)

Tier 2:
2. Puka Nacua (8)

Tier 3:
3. Nico Collins (4)
4. Justin Jefferson (2)
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown (3)

Tier 4:
6. Cooper Kupp (11)
7. CeeDee Lamb (6)
8. Tyreek Hill (7)

Tier 5:
9. Tee Higgins (9)
10. Terry McLaurin (13)
11. AJ Brown (5)
12. Jauan Jennings (28), In 5 games without Aiyuk, he has a 32% target share, and 17.4 PPR points per week. No factor in 1 of those games was without Purdy, and one was in a blizzard. In the other 3, he has a 7-90 floor with 3 TDs in 3 games. He's the #1, and I'll add this is a poor job of self-scouting by SF, because if they knew he was this good, they'd wouldn't have both extended Aiyuk and drafted a 1st round WR.
13. Mike Evans (10)
14. Drake London (14)
15. Davante Adams (19)

Tier 6:
16. Jordan Addison (39), he's been the Vikings #1 over the last month. While that obviously isn't sticky, its not a fluke either. As I said in the Darnold blurb, I was too stubborn on the non-Jefferson/Hockenson parts of the passing game, and I've been too low all along on Addison, who I liked a lot coming out. I'm sad I have 0 shares, because this looks like the next great WR combo.
17. Brian Thomas (36), what an outstanding WR class this is looking like 1 season in. Now healthy again, Thomas is out here making it work with Mac Jones and has topped 75 yards in his last 3 games. With Lawrence and a likely new HC next season, he's gonna be hard not to have as a top-12 guy next season.
18. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (16)
19. Jerry Jeudy (35), at least 5-64 in all 6 weeks since Winston took over, with TDs in half the games. He's a WR2, and honestly that trade/extension looks a lot less silly now.
20. Malik Nabers (12)
21. Garrett Wilson (18)
22. Courtland Sutton (24)
23. Zay Flowers (26)
24. Ladd McConkey (21)
25. DK Metcalf (17)
26. Jakobi Meyers (25)
27. DJ Moore (22)
28. Khalil Shakir (38)
29. Calvin Ridley (23)

Tier 7:
30. Jayden Reed (27), I think LaFleur is a good play caller, but his usage of Reed is puzzling. He's basically a gadget player unless they are in shootout mode, and even that didn't materialize against the Lions. Schedule is great, but zero trust at all.
31. Jameson Williams (37)
32. Darnell Mooney (32)
33. DeVonta Smith (29)
34. Adam Thielen (NR), could argue him higher, as he is seeing a top-15 workload, but I don't wanna trust him too much, especially if competent Bryce is a mirage, or if his "fresh legs" wear off. WR3 feels fair enough to me.
35. Marvin Harrison (20), I think Drew Petzig should be fired after this season. Imagine taking one of the best WR prospects in recent history at #4 overall and mostly using him as a clearout guy. If this was the plan, they should have traded down or taken Alt. Harrison himself looks fine whenever he's running anything that isn't a straight line.
36. Keenan Allen (30)
37. Jaylen Waddle (34)
38. DeAndre Hopkins (33)
39. Deebo Samuel (31)
40. Rome Odunze (NR), that whole leading the team in redzone targets thing finally paid off. If Bears WR ranks look a little wonky, its because its an across the board hedge. I'm not necessarily saying they'll have 3 top-40 WRs, just more of a probability of value thing.

Dropped off: George Pickens (15), grade 2 hamstring injury likely means 2-4 weeks. Week 16 is best case. Not dropping him but not expecting much. Tank Dell (40), maybe they spent the bye scheming things for him to do, but its just as likely he's the #3 (at best) option and is a complete crapshoot if he has any good games in him.
 
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TE
Tier 1:
1. Brock Bowers (1)

Tier 2:
2. George Kittle (4), as is a theme, I overcorrected on the SF passing game. In non-PPR you could argue Kittle #1. But Bowers workload is in a league of its own.

Tier 3:
3. Trey McBride (2)

Tier 4:
4. David Njoku (5)

Tier 5:
5. Jonnu Smith (8)
6. Sam LaPorta (9)
7. Travis Kelce (3), feels really due for a 2 TD game, but also maybe not. Production has been down the last month after what looked like a resurgence in weeks 8-10.
8. TJ Hockenson (6)

Tier 6:
9. Tucker Kraft (NR), somewhat similar to Jayden Reed, but that's more tolerable at TE. Also at least he's on the field for all these plays.
10. Mark Andrews (10)
11. Zach Ertz (15), TDs in 3 straight, and not sure if its a fluke, as he's the clear #2 option in the redzone pass game. Little ceiling, but high floor, even as a somewhat TD dependent guy.
10. Evan Engram (11)
12. Hunter Henry (NR), less talented Engram, but with less target competition? You get a pretty safe 5 catches, but upside is non existent. 1 TD on the season.
13. Evan Engram (11)

Tier 7:
14. Cade Otton (7), kinda thought there was a chance of this happening once Evans was back, but wanted to give the benefit of the doubt, even though I'm not a fan of the player. Now guys like McMillan and Shepard are getting involved...
15. Jake Ferguson (14)

Dropped off: Pat Freiermuth (12), has scored the last 2 weeks, so congrats if you started him, but concerning that Pickens absence led to 3 targets, and still splitting with 2 other TEs. TD or bust. Will Dissly (13), it was a fun couple weeks, but he's likely out until week 17, and how confident are you starting him then?

Good luck in the playoffs to all who made it!
 
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1. I know you've made your thoughts known on Stafford, but I think it's worth mentioning that in the 7 games since Puka's return he's gone 161/241 1911 16/3.

2. Couldn't agree with you more on MHJ/Petzig. Most perplexing misuse of offensive talent in the league. At the same time, I've been disappointed with MHJ's play strength. Kyler Murray has 2 more rushing attempts than Sam Darnold.

3. The delta between London/Mooney shouldn't be as large as it is, although I get it moreso in PPR type formats. As an FYI, Mooney leads FLEX players in snaps. But their production is and likely will stay on the same ballpark.

4. I know you qualified your Thielen remark, but it's clear Bryce has found something with him and DAL + TB in the next 3 weeks are about as good of a playoff schedule as one could hope for.

5. in his last 8 games since a painfully slow start, Andrews has gone 33/370/7. He's a first look for Lamar in the RZ when healthy. He seems back.
 
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Kamara fell far from grace. I don’t disagree with you. But, that’s a long fall. You may have had him too high at 2.

Not sure who I’d have over him now. Maybe Hubbard and Conner?

Either way. I still think he’s gonna get him some, and take some dump offs from whoever is at QB as the safety outlet.
 
See ya next year with these. Thanks for keeping us all entertained another season.

True internet-age Monday morning cooler talk material, and I'm here for it every week.
 
Thanks again for another solid year of rankings, Travdog. A tough task, especially with us knuckleheads poking at it every week, but mad respect for defending your positions and making adjustments. It always spawns a good convo. It's helped me make trade/lineup moves all season and I'm 2 for 2 in playoff teams, so a piece of the credit is definitely yours.
 
I can't tell you how many times I thought I had it figured out until you gave a contrarian view with sound arguments.

Greatly appreciate your contribution to helping FF players evaluate and reevaluate players over the season based on your invaluable perspective.
 
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