these RB rankings no longer make any sense to me.
I know I'm being VERY patient with Pollard and Bijan, but what other ranks do you think aren't sensible?
I have no idea how to value Bijan because I have no idea what the Falcons coaches are doing.
My thinking is that has to be getting to Smith right? Like its one thing to think fantasy doesn't matter, its about winning games (which is true) but he's not winning games. Atlanta started 2-0 and is 2-5 since, and that's been in the league's weakest division. I think Cards/Bye is gonna tell us a lot about this team. Rookies often get boosts out the bye, maybe that happens here. I just don't wanna move Bijan down, then watch as he blows up, with the talent we all knew he had.
Those two were the most egregious. Having them that high, based on the data we currently have and, especially in the case of Bijan, his situation and opportunity (and idiot coach) is basically the equivalent of "trust me bro".
Also, re your comment on Kamara further down the thread: His "ceiling," as you've described it, was top 3 RB. He is not ceding meaningful work to Williams who is a JAG's JAG. He has a floor game of 10 points and you drop him to 14. Behind guys who have neither the opportunity or production that AK has shown. Kamara has a super safe floor and a top three ceiling every week (which he has shown all year).
Meanwhile, Pollard, who has been the biggest bust of the first round and candidate for bust of the year, hasn't scored 10 fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 weeks. And you have him as an elite option going forward.
Again, it basically boils down to "trust me bro".
Edit - there are more too. KWIII is ceding work rapidly to Charbonnet and has no passing work. Deandre Swift (who I own) is very pedestrian and shares time, especially in the red zone. These guys are not top 12. Breece Hall at 4? On what possible basis?
In Bijan's case, he's RB14 at the moment, he's coming off his worst week of the season (I'm not counting week 7, as he was essentially inactive) so that feels like his floor to me. He's shown himself to be an extremely explosive player, as his over 5 YPC suggests, and he's still on a run 1st team. I get being frustrated by his (all Falcons really) usage, but I don't know that its just how its gonna be. Rookies tend to get more work as the season goes on, and as I said earlier, if/when he drops a huge game, its gonna look silly having dropped him so low. I 100% believe in his talent, he's seeing 2/3rds of the snaps, and I think he's a good buy-low.
Conversely, with Kamara, his workload has been getting smaller by the week since Jamaal came back. He's been getting there points wise, but I think there are reasons to think that doesn't continue. To be 100% transparent, I don't think 2023 Kamara is a special RB, I think his workload was what propelled him a couple weeks ago. That's getting smaller, and Taysom Hill (I think) has very much entrenched himself as the GL hammer. He's been about as effective as Hurts at it, only the Saints offense obviously isn't as good as the Eagles. I also think Kamara was seeing lots of looks due to Carr's shoulder injury limiting what he could do. Add all that up, and I think Kamara had a perfect storm to be an elite fantasy option. Having said that, I would start Kamara over Bijan this week for instance, but going forward, I see more upside with Bijan.
Pollard does kinda fall into the "trust me bro" category I guess. He hasn't been efficient with his touches like Bijan has and is only RB18 at the moment. In his case I do think he's been maybe the 2nd most unlucky RB for TD's (more on the 1st later) and I think the Dallas offense in general has looked more explosive since the bye week. The Dallas schedule is cake going forward, and Pollard is seeing 70% of snaps.
Kenneth Walker is the current RB10, and I can see reasons for him to be lower. I think the losing work is a little overblown as Walker has been banged up, and Seattle got blown out last week, so his workload has been a bit skewed, but its certainly possible that the door is cracking open a bit for Charbonnet to take on more work, I just am not of the belief that is suddenly a RBBC or something. I did move him down a tier this week, but Walker has been treated as a workhorse when healthy.
D'Andre Swift is currently RB5, and has had the worst TD luck of any RB, obviously the Brotherly shove isn't going away, but Swift has been tackled on the 1 an almost comical amount of times. Its all Hurts from the 1, but Swift is getting plenty of chances inside the 10. He's on pace for 57 catches in an elite offense, and while the yardage totals have been somewhat disappointing of late, there haven't been any truly down weeks. 3 other positives for Swift: 1.) He's the clear #1 RB on the team, Gainwell has been mostly a 3rd down and 2-minute drill RB. Throwing out week 1 where Swift barely played, its been about a 70-30 split. 2.) The Eagles OL is gonna be returning to full health after the bye week. They've been down Cam Jurgens and Lane Johnson has been playing through an ankle injury that most wouldn't have been. 3.) This is more anecdotal, but when Goedert went down last season, we all recall that DeVonta Smith took off a bit, but what gets forgotten is that was when Miles Sanders REALLY got hot. Sanders had his 2 best games of the season, and 2 of his 4 biggest workloads of the season during that stretch. I think we can all agree Swift>Sanders.
Breece Hall is RB15, despite barely playing the first few weeks. He's since left Dalvin Cook in the dust. Since Hall became the guy in week 5, he has finished 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 22nd in points at RB position. The 22nd featured an amazing 4 10+ yard runs called back via penalty. He's clearly an outstanding playmaker, and over his knee injury. He's also the clear centerpiece of his offense, and other than week 17 against the Browns, has a great schedule going forward.
