Travdogg's positional rankings from week 4 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

Lots of changes this week, as I think 3 weeks is usually the amount of time I think it takes to truly start seeing who teams are.

QB
Tier 1:
1. Patrick Mahomes (1)
2. Jalen Hurts (3)
3. Josh Allen (2)
Tier 2:
4. Justin Herbert (8)
5. Lamar Jackson (5)
6. Trevor Lawrence (11)
Tier 3:
7. Kirk Cousins (14), well some of my argument against him was pass volume wasn't sustainable, then it increased. He's on pace for 782 attempts, 49 more than the NFL record. Cousins has a history of pulling the rug out right when you start to trust him, but I have no reason otherwise to think its about to stop.
8. Tua Tagovailoa (9)
9. Anthony Richardson (6)
10. Joe Burrow (7)
Tier 4:
11. Geno Smith (NR), has gotten groove back after his week 1 disaster. Still surrounded by high-end weapons.
12. Justin Fields (4), looks awful, but the rushing ceiling is far too high to give up on him. Still think there is close to 0% chance he gets benched, they'll fire the OC 1st.
13. Daniel Jones (12)
14. Dak Prescott (13)
15. Jared Goff (NR), seems destined to teeter on that "I'm comfortable starting him, I never feel great about it" level.

Dropped off: Deshaun Watson (10), the rushing has slowed down a bit, and I'm not confident enough in his passing to have him over other guys. Russell Wilson (15), did hit 300 yards, but needed an entire game of garbage time to do it. Has Payton lost the magic?

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1:
1. Christian McCaffrey (1)
2. Austin Ekeler (3)
3. Tony Pollard (4)
4. Bijan Robinson (2)
Tier 2:
5. Saquon Barkley (9)
6. Travis Etienne (7)
7. Joe Mixon (12)
8. Derrick Henry (5)
9. Rhamondre Stevenson (11)
10. Josh Jacobs (8)
Tier 3:
11. Aaron Jones (16)
12. Jonathan Taylor (14)
13. Kenneth Walker (20)
14. D'Andre Swift (30), if you sold last week, hopefully you got a WR2 or something. If you didn't, bravo. Swift looks like a perfect fit in this offense and looks shot out of a cannon. I expect the passing game work comes with time, as he's an excellent receiver. TDs could be an issue, as he'll never see a GL carry, but that didn't stop Miles Sanders from having 11 TDs last season.
15. James Cook (15)
Tier 4:
16. Alvin Kamara (29), Jamaal Williams on IR and Derek Carr out for a bit changes things for this offense and makes me higher on Kamara than I was before, as they'll need more from him.
17. Miles Sanders (22)
18. Jahmyr Gibbs (13)
19. Jerome Ford (21)
Tier 5:
20. Kyren Williams (17)
21. James Conner (10), possible I'm overreacting with a guy I'm inclined to fade. But despite his fantasy points going up 2 weeks in a row, his workload is getting smaller. I do love seeing Rondale Moore in the backfield (where he should have always been playing in my opinion) but I wonder if he's a bit of a sell-high.
22. Rachaad White (NR), there is only so much I can fade a guy who never comes off the field. Better production will come.
23. Dameon Pierce (26)
24. De'Von Achane (NR), so, I'm tempted to throw the 70-20 out, and just call it a meaningless anomaly. That said, the one takeaway I have, is that I think you can't put the genie back in the lamp. I'm expecting a very even RBBC in Miami going forward, but its also important to note, this is a passing team. Achane may not be a bad sell high.
Tier 6:
25. Brian Robinson (18)
26. Isiah Pacheco (23)
27. Alexander Mattison (NR), safe to say he felt the heat from the Akers trade. I think basically nothing of Akers, so I still consider Mattison a clear starter. Value is unlikely to get higher than flex option though, unless Vikings offense changes.
28. Javonte Williams (24)
29. Najee Harris (27)
30. Breece Hall (6), this offense is awful. They seem committed to Zach Wilson, and the other options on the team are probably even worse. Hall is a super talented RB, and his workload is gonna get bigger, but he's gonna see 8-9 man boxes. I'm leaving him on the list because he's got the talent to shoot up a ton if the offense somehow gets going, but right now he's basically an albatross.

Dropped off: Raheem Mostert (19), the most obvious sell high I've maybe ever seen. Great if you started him last week, but he just lost his stranglehold on the starting job in my opinion. As a 30+ RB, with a lengthy injury history, the time to get out is now. Khalil Herbert (25), this offense is trash, and Roschon's role is increasing weekly. Herbert is still the Bears RB to own, but for how long? Dalvin Cook (28), he looks finished, and in a bad offense, its easy to see his workload getting smaller by the week.

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1:
1. Tyreek Hill (3)
2. Justin Jefferson (1)
3. Stefon Diggs (4)
4. CeeDee Lamb (5)
5. Ja'Marr Chase (2)
Tier 2:
6. Keenan Allen (23), was well on his way up before Mike Williams went down. He's getting so many favorable matchups (as Lamb did with Moore) and doing so much with them. I keep waiting for the rug to be pulled out, but with Williams out now, its not likely to happen, and probably never was anyway. @Just Win Baby hit this one on the head.
7. Davante Adams (6)
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown (9)
9. Chris Olave (17)
10. AJ Brown (7)
11. Calvin Ridley (11)
Tier 3:
12. DeVonta Smith (12)
13. Jaylen Waddle (10)
14. Tee Higgins (16)
Tier 4:
15. Amari Cooper (22)
16. Cooper Kupp (8)
17. DK Metcalf (26), I overcorrected on Geno, and DK fell because of it. He's getting downfield a bit more this year, after being used more in the short range last year.
Tier 5:
18. Mike Evans (18)
19. Deebo Samuel (15)
20. Garrett Wilson (14)
Tier 6:
21. Brandon Aiyuk (13)
22. Tyler Lockett (33), similar reasoning as DK, and also JSN has shown himself to be zero threat so far. Yards haven't been there yet, but snaps, targets, and TDs are normal. Some big plays are probably coming soon.
23. Christian Watson (20)
24. Jakobi Meyers (NR), Raiders basically only throw to 2 guys. He's mostly in the short range area, but he's filling a bit of an Edelman role for Vegas.
25. George Pickens (32)
26. Adam Thielen (NR), not just a 1-week breakout, as he dominated looks with Young as well as Dalton. Seeing 75% slot routes, which leads to a lot of being covered by LB/S.
27. DJ Moore (21)
28. Chris Godwin (36)
Tier 7:
29. Puka Nacua (19), targets finally came back to earth, and 7 targets is probably close to my expectation once Kupp is back. Super unlucky not have a TD yet.
30. Hollywood Brown (30)
31. Tank Dell (NR), has looked like Stroud's favorite since becoming a full-time player in week 2. In a way, he's Tutu Atwell, of there was no Cooper Kupp coming.
32. Michael Pittman (24)
33. Zay Flowers (NR), Beckham and Bateman injuries are leaving no choice but to feature Flowers. 21 catches in 3 games is nice, let's hope its sustainable.
34. Terry McLaurin (27)
35. Drake London (29)
36. DeAndre Hopkins (31)
Tier 8:
37. Nico Collins (25), somewhat perplexing that he's been 3rd in routes run every week. Might be more boom/bust than initially appeared.
38. Jordan Addison (38)
39. Christian Kirk (35)
40. Michael Thomas (39)

Dropped off: Mike Williams (28), sucks to see him go down again. He was on a 1300-6 pace. Be curious to see who steps up in his absence, my gut says Palmer/Johnston split the role, and Ekeler/TEs see more targets. Gabe Davis (34), I mean he did catch a TD at least, but yeah, 1 catch on 4 targets isn't exactly a fluky stat line for him. Jerry Jeudy (37), thought about dropping him off last week, but wanted to give him a healthy week. WRBC, and the best guy is probably Mims, though who knows if Payton will think that. Treylon Burks (40), losing too many snaps to Westbrook-Ikhine.

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1:
1. Travis Kelce (1)
2. TJ Hockenson (3)
3. Mark Andrews (2)
Tier 2:
4. George Kittle (6)
5. Darren Waller (4)
6. Sam LaPorta (9), leads all TEs in yards, and is 2nd in targets. Sure, Kelce and Andrews missed week 1, but its still super impressive. Fun fact, he hit 18.49 MPH on his TD last week, which was the fastest time any Lions player had. Honestly, I'm deferring a lot to more proven vets here, I could easily argue LaPorta TE4.
7. Dallas Goedert (7)
Tier 3:
8. Evan Engram (8)
9. Pat Freiermuth (10)
10. Hunter Henry (13)
11. Tyler Higbee (14)
Tier 4:
12. Luke Musgrave (NR), has just missed some pretty big stat lines. I think his role will remain unchanged upon Watson's return, with Doubs/Reed likely being the ones taking the hits.
13. Jake Ferguson (NR), needs more snaps to move up higher, but Dak clearly loves the guy. He's seen more targets than Cooks/Gallup.
14. Zach Ertz (12)
15. David Njoku (11), seems like he's taking a backseat to Elijah Moore as the #2 option. TE is so thin that a #3 option in a decent passing game is top-15 worthy.

Dropped off: Kyle Pitts (5), he's the TE version of Breece Hall, this is probably an overreaction, but until the Falcons show any signs of changing the offense, he's an albatross. He's at least on field more often, but the QB play is somehow worse than Mariota. Half of Pitts targets have been deemed uncatchable. Hayden Hurst (15), diminishing returns since week 1 as Thielen and Chark have gotten healthy.

 

[dschuler]

I’ll say it every week this season. Derrick Henry was overrated at 4, overrated at 5, and is overrated at 8. He’s getting outsnapped by the rookie backup and is barely an RB2 (18th) after three weeks and is only going to go down further. He’s hurt, slow, and isn’t in the game when the team is down. He doesn’t deserve to be ranked 18th let alone 8th.

 

[wlwiles]

I'm not sure if you're too low or I'm too high on Mike Evans. He's buoyed a bit by scoring every week so far, but he's top 7 in yards and top 11 in targets through 3 weeks. Do you think Baker slows down, or Godwin starts to eat into him more?

Chase had his best game yet (15/12/141) and he drops from 5 to 2? Probably more that the others rose above him than he dropped I'm guessing.

Curious for your take on David Montgomery. He's the prime example of something that I end up doing every year - I hold this guy because he's a safe floor flex with maybe a chance for a multi-TD game here and there, and miss out on some early season waiver claims by not cutting bait. Does he return to flex-territory you think?

Edit: thanks again trav for doing these lists, love to see the back and forth these always generate

 

[jobarules]

Good list. Nothing stands out except Trevor Lawrence too high. Above Tua? That's nuts

 

[jobarules]

I'm not sure if you're too low or I'm too high on Mike Evans. He's buoyed a bit by scoring every week so far, but he's top 7 in yards and top 11 in targets through 3 weeks. Do you think Baker slows down, or Godwin starts to eat into him more?

Chase had his best game yet (15/12/141) and he drops from 5 to 2? Probably more that the others rose above him than he dropped I'm guessing.

Curious for your take on David Montgomery. He's the prime example of something that I end up doing every year - I hold this guy because he's a safe floor flex with maybe a chance for a multi-TD game here and there, and miss out on some early season waiver claims by not cutting bait. Does he return to flex-territory you think?

Edit: thanks again trav for doing these lists, love to see the back and forth these always generate

I'd rate Monty around 17th on that list. I'd definitely rather have him than sanders, Gibbs, Ford, kyren but would rather have cook and Kamara than him.

 

[Biabreakable]

Good for you for dropping Fields in your ranking finally. I was going to have to whip out the homer simpson emoji otherwise. Maybe still too high here but hey thats progress.

Some of your methodology here confuses me. Jamar Chase has an outstanding game yet you drop him from rank 2 to rank 5. What did Chase have to do to maintain your previous ranking of him?

Anyhow thanks for having the cajones to put this out here every week and I hope you get something useful out of the process beyond quips from Statler and Waldorf.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

7. Kirk Cousins (14), well some of my argument against him was pass volume wasn't sustainable, then it increased. He's on pace for 782 attempts, 49 more than the NFL record. Cousins has a history of pulling the rug out right when you start to trust him, but I have no reason otherwise to think its about to stop.

They can't run the ball at all and have one of the league's best passing attacks. And their defense is terrible so they need to put up a lot of points. He probably won't throw 782 times but the run/pass ratio should stay pretty lopsided.

 

[travdogg]

I’ll say it every week this season. Derrick Henry was overrated at 4, overrated at 5, and is overrated at 8. He’s getting outsnapped by the rookie backup and is barely an RB2 (18th) after three weeks and is only going to go down further. He’s hurt, slow, and isn’t in the game when the team is down. He doesn’t deserve to be ranked 18th let alone 8th.

In my eyes, Henry has 1 bad week, against a defense that has allowed 1 TD all season. I'm not seeing a slow player at all, though he obviously doesn't look like peak Henry.

I think the snap thing is overblown. Henry has 75% of the carries.

I'm not sure if you're too low or I'm too high on Mike Evans. He's buoyed a bit by scoring every week so far, but he's top 7 in yards and top 11 in targets through 3 weeks. Do you think Baker slows down, or Godwin starts to eat into him more?

Chase had his best game yet (15/12/141) and he drops from 5 to 2? Probably more that the others rose above him than he dropped I'm guessing.

Curious for your take on David Montgomery. He's the prime example of something that I end up doing every year - I hold this guy because he's a safe floor flex with maybe a chance for a multi-TD game here and there, and miss out on some early season waiver claims by not cutting bait. Does he return to flex-territory you think?

Edit: thanks again trav for doing these lists, love to see the back and forth these always generate

Honestly both as far as Evans goes. I don't think Mayfield is suddenly good, I think he played the Bears and Vikings. I also think Godwin gets more involved. They tried to get him more involved against Philly, but got away from it a bit after Mayfield's INT in the 2nd.

Chase is more about Burrow. I think with this calf injury, his deep ball is gone, and that's a lot of Chase's appeal. I don't think games like last night are gonna happen often (though they clearly can, and that's a little re-assuring) I just find I trust Diggs and Lamb more right now, especially Diggs.

Montgomery was one of the last omissions. If RB went to 35, he'd have made it. I think flex territory is reasonable, but there is a decent chance Gibbs could separate from him as the year goes on.

 

[travdogg]

Good list. Nothing stands out except Trevor Lawrence too high. Above Tua? That's nuts

Nobody has had worse luck than Trevor Lawrence this year. I know you don't get points for shoulda and couldas, but he has had like 6 dropped TD passes these first 3 games. Truth be told, Lawrence is playing better football than he did last year in my eyes, he's been let down a lot by his supporting cast, especially Ridley, who was 4 dropped TDs so far, though 2 drew PI calls, and lead to Bigsby TDs.

Also, of note, I'm probably always gonna be a little bit lower on Tua due to that concussion fear. He's one of maybe 5 guys I really worry about health wise. Achilles, neck/spine, and multi concussion guys are the only injuries I tend to downgrade guys for.

Good for you for dropping Fields in your ranking finally. I was going to have to whip out the homer simpson emoji otherwise. Maybe still too high here but hey thats progress.

Some of your methodology here confuses me. Jamar Chase has an outstanding game yet you drop him from rank 2 to rank 5. What did Chase have to do to maintain your previous ranking of him?

Anyhow thanks for having the cajones to put this out here every week and I hope you get something useful out of the process beyond quips from Statler and Waldorf.

Watch Fields have 130 and 2 TDs rushing this week, now that I finally moved him down.

 

[need2know]

Yeah tua should be higher. Dude is gonna be mvp and you don't even have him top 5

 

[fatness]

13. Kenneth Walker (20)

Thanks for moving Walker up. Last week I said he was ranked too low, and you asked me why he should be higher because he was TD dependent. I neglected to reply; my reply would have been "his team relies on him for TD's when they're inside the 10, and they're getting inside the 10 frequently enough." If he doesn't get hurt I think he'll end up higher than 13 at the end of the year.

 

[fatness]

QB rankings: where would Stroud be?

 

[dschuler]

Nobody has had worse luck than Trevor Lawrence this year. I know you don't get points for shoulda and couldas, but he has had like 6 dropped TD passes these first 3 games. Truth be told, Lawrence is playing better football than he did last year in my eyes, he's been let down a lot by his supporting cast, especially Ridley, who was 4 dropped TDs so far, though 2 drew PI calls, and lead to Bigsby TDs.

This is so true. He could easily have been a QB 1 all three weeks and most of that isn’t on him. People seem like they are starting to bail on him but he’s an excellent buy low, especially in dynasty only being 23 years old.

 

[TampaMike19]

I do appreciate you putting yourself on a limb each week with these rankings. While we all have some disagreements, no one else is putting their rankings out there! Good to get additional perspective and insight.

 

[Boston]

Also, of note, I'm probably always gonna be a little bit lower on Tua due to that concussion fear. He's one of maybe 5 guys I really worry about health wise. Achilles, neck/spine, and multi concussion guys are the only injuries I tend to downgrade guys for.

Who are the other 4? Thanks for the efforts here...agree or disagree there is a legit method to your madness!

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Cousins has a history of pulling the rug out right when you start to trust him, but I have no reason otherwise to think its about to stop.

I don’t understand this comment. Cousins has been a model of consistency. He missed one game in eight years and averaged 4100 passing yards and 30 passing TDs.

 

[jobarules]

LOL I cant believe how much hate Kirk Cousins gets. Hes not a HOF QB but hes very good. Lets not pretend HOF QBs grow on trees.

 

[travdogg]

Yeah tua should be higher. Dude is gonna be mvp and you don't even have him top 5

Being MVP doesn't mean someone has to be a top fantasy guy. 2021 Aaron Rodgers was QB7. 2009 Peyton Manning was QB5. 2008 Manning was QB7. 2003 Steve McNair was QB5.

I do think Miami's offense is being a little overrated due to this 70-point game. They are only a week removed from scoring 24 and having under 400 yards. Its a great offense, but people comparing them to the 99-01 Rams (which is happening in other threads) is a little silly in my eyes. Truthfully, I think its debatable whether they are the best offense in their own game this week.

QB rankings: where would Stroud be?

In the 16-20 range. Probably closer to 20. Certainly room to grow though.

Cousins has a history of pulling the rug out right when you start to trust him, but I have no reason otherwise to think its about to stop.

I don’t understand this comment. Cousins has been a model of consistency. He missed one game in eight years and averaged 4100 passing yards and 30 passing TDs.

Consistent year to year, but not so much week to week. Perhaps that is changing with a record setting attempt pace?

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Don't know how to feel about L.Jackson. He's on my team, willing him to be good but 2 td passes through 3 games is the opposite of good. Every time I put the Ravens-Colts game on, Indy seemed to have the ball, so there's a concern there with sustaining drives, TOP etc. I was high on him going in, don't see him top 5 at all now. Great stuff though, love reading these.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Consistent year to year, but not so much week to week. Perhaps that is changing with a record setting attempt pace?

I would not bet on him having 300+ yards and 3 TDs a game for the reason of the year but it’s hard not to see him not finishing in the Top 10 unless injuries take a toll.

I don’t know how to statistically determine if he is less consistent week to week than other top QBs but since 2020 he’s been very productive. How that extrapolates out over 52 games, I don’t know but he’s putting up lot of FF points and he’s been one of the best value plays at QB in recent memory.

 

[travdogg]

Don't know how to feel about L.Jackson. He's on my team, willing him to be good but 2 td passes through 3 games is the opposite of good. Every time I put the Ravens-Colts game on, Indy seemed to have the ball, so there's a concern there with sustaining drives, TOP etc. I was high on him going in, don't see him top 5 at all now. Great stuff though, love reading these.

For all the talk about the new OC, through 3 weeks, Lamar is the same guy he's always been. 2 TD passes isn't ideal, but 100+ yards and 2 TD's rushing is very ideal. I mean, that's the equivalent of 250 passing yards and 3 TDs in most leagues.

If you reframed Lamar as throwing for 450 yards and 3 TDs last week, would you feel better about him? Because he scored as many points as someone who did that. If not for the lost fumble, he'd have been QB1 last week.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

Don't know how to feel about L.Jackson. He's on my team, willing him to be good but 2 td passes through 3 games is the opposite of good. Every time I put the Ravens-Colts game on, Indy seemed to have the ball, so there's a concern there with sustaining drives, TOP etc. I was high on him going in, don't see him top 5 at all now. Great stuff though, love reading these.

For all the talk about the new OC, through 3 weeks, Lamar is the same guy he's always been. 2 TD passes isn't ideal, but 100+ yards and 2 TD's rushing is very ideal. I mean, that's the equivalent of 250 passing yards and 3 TDs in most leagues.

If you reframed Lamar as throwing for 450 yards and 3 TDs last week, would you feel better about him? Because he scored as many points as someone who did that. If not for the lost fumble, he'd have been QB1 last week.

Interesting counter perspective. I suppose yes I would as it would feel more sustainable. But mayyyybe the rushing is sustainable too? If they get it figured out that he's doing what he did on the ground but adds tossing a couple each week, then yeah, he's right up there obviously.

 

[travdogg]

Don't know how to feel about L.Jackson. He's on my team, willing him to be good but 2 td passes through 3 games is the opposite of good. Every time I put the Ravens-Colts game on, Indy seemed to have the ball, so there's a concern there with sustaining drives, TOP etc. I was high on him going in, don't see him top 5 at all now. Great stuff though, love reading these.

For all the talk about the new OC, through 3 weeks, Lamar is the same guy he's always been. 2 TD passes isn't ideal, but 100+ yards and 2 TD's rushing is very ideal. I mean, that's the equivalent of 250 passing yards and 3 TDs in most leagues.

If you reframed Lamar as throwing for 450 yards and 3 TDs last week, would you feel better about him? Because he scored as many points as someone who did that. If not for the lost fumble, he'd have been QB1 last week.

Interesting counter perspective. I suppose yes I would as it would feel more sustainable. But mayyyybe the rushing is sustainable too? If they get it figured out that he's doing what he did on the ground but adds tossing a couple each week, then yeah, he's right up there obviously.

Well, his career average extrapolated to 17 games is 1000-7 rushing. That's roughly the equivalent of 2500-11 passing added to what he typically does vs guys like Tua or Cousins who don't run at all.

If we pretended Lamar's points scored throughout his career were all through the air, but he scored the same for fantasy, he'd be averaging 5900-38 if he stayed healthy, which would be QB1 for pretty much his entire career.

That's why I have such a strong bias toward running QBs.

 

[jobarules]

Don't know how to feel about L.Jackson. He's on my team, willing him to be good but 2 td passes through 3 games is the opposite of good. Every time I put the Ravens-Colts game on, Indy seemed to have the ball, so there's a concern there with sustaining drives, TOP etc. I was high on him going in, don't see him top 5 at all now. Great stuff though, love reading these.

For all the talk about the new OC, through 3 weeks, Lamar is the same guy he's always been. 2 TD passes isn't ideal, but 100+ yards and 2 TD's rushing is very ideal. I mean, that's the equivalent of 250 passing yards and 3 TDs in most leagues.

If you reframed Lamar as throwing for 450 yards and 3 TDs last week, would you feel better about him? Because he scored as many points as someone who did that. If not for the lost fumble, he'd have been QB1 last week.

Interesting counter perspective. I suppose yes I would as it would feel more sustainable. But mayyyybe the rushing is sustainable too? If they get it figured out that he's doing what he did on the ground but adds tossing a couple each week, then yeah, he's right up there obviously.

Well, his career average extrapolated to 17 games is 1000-7 rushing. That's roughly the equivalent of 2500-11 passing added to what he typically does vs guys like Tua or Cousins who don't run at all.

If we pretended Lamar's points scored throughout his career were all through the air, but he scored the same for fantasy, he'd be averaging 5900-38 if he stayed healthy, which would be QB1 for pretty much his entire career.

That's why I have such a strong bias toward running QBs.

This makes complete sense. How do the #s look if you take out his MVP season (which was clearly an outlier). Because it does certainly feel like LJax has been disappointing as a fantasy Qb the last few years.

 

[zoonation]

Yeah tua should be higher. Dude is gonna be mvp and you don't even have him top 5

Being MVP doesn't mean someone has to be a top fantasy guy. 2021 Aaron Rodgers was QB7. 2009 Peyton Manning was QB5. 2008 Manning was QB7. 2003 Steve McNair was QB5.

I do think Miami's offense is being a little overrated due to this 70-point game. They are only a week removed from scoring 24 and having under 400 yards. Its a great offense, but people comparing them to the 99-01 Rams (which is happening in other threads) is a little silly in my eyes. Truthfully, I think its debatable whether they are the best offense in their own game this week.

QB rankings: where would Stroud be?

In the 16-20 range. Probably closer to 20. Certainly room to grow though.

Cousins has a history of pulling the rug out right when you start to trust him, but I have no reason otherwise to think its about to stop.

I don’t understand this comment. Cousins has been a model of consistency. He missed one game in eight years and averaged 4100 passing yards and 30 passing TDs.

Consistent year to year, but not so much week to week. Perhaps that is changing with a record setting attempt pace?

I think the point is that he is the QB for what looks to be an all-time offense. He is remarkably efficient. Weapons everywhere. Having him at 8 is nuts IMO. Should be above everyone in tier 2 and probably above Hurts in tier 1 IMO.

I love your work though. Really enjoy reading this every week.

Glad you are finally coming around on Kamara Although, I think Carr going down actually hurts him as Winston doesn't check it down and I think when Carr gets back his receptions actually go up.

 

[dmac37]

Pittman seems low at 32?? Why the big drop?

 

[travdogg]

Don't know how to feel about L.Jackson. He's on my team, willing him to be good but 2 td passes through 3 games is the opposite of good. Every time I put the Ravens-Colts game on, Indy seemed to have the ball, so there's a concern there with sustaining drives, TOP etc. I was high on him going in, don't see him top 5 at all now. Great stuff though, love reading these.

For all the talk about the new OC, through 3 weeks, Lamar is the same guy he's always been. 2 TD passes isn't ideal, but 100+ yards and 2 TD's rushing is very ideal. I mean, that's the equivalent of 250 passing yards and 3 TDs in most leagues.

If you reframed Lamar as throwing for 450 yards and 3 TDs last week, would you feel better about him? Because he scored as many points as someone who did that. If not for the lost fumble, he'd have been QB1 last week.

Interesting counter perspective. I suppose yes I would as it would feel more sustainable. But mayyyybe the rushing is sustainable too? If they get it figured out that he's doing what he did on the ground but adds tossing a couple each week, then yeah, he's right up there obviously.

Well, his career average extrapolated to 17 games is 1000-7 rushing. That's roughly the equivalent of 2500-11 passing added to what he typically does vs guys like Tua or Cousins who don't run at all.

If we pretended Lamar's points scored throughout his career were all through the air, but he scored the same for fantasy, he'd be averaging 5900-38 if he stayed healthy, which would be QB1 for pretty much his entire career.

That's why I have such a strong bias toward running QBs.

This makes complete sense. How do the #s look if you take out his MVP season (which was clearly an outlier). Because it does certainly feel like LJax has been disappointing as a fantasy Qb the last few years.

From 2020 to today his per game averages over a 17 game season come out to:
3436 passing yards
25 passing TDs
12 INTs
1104 rushing yards
6 rushing TDs
That's 371.84 points on average.

Which would have been:
2022-QB4
2021-QB4
2020-QB5

I think the missed games really puts a big damper in people's perceptions of how good he's been since his MVP season. Like yes, 2019 was his peak, but Mahomes has also never topped his 2018 breakout season.

 

[travdogg]

Pittman seems low at 32?? Why the big drop?

I just don't see much upside. He doesn't get big plays, he's in a low value passing game (one in which his target number is ideal, but the targets being so short isn't) and I think all the guys I have ahead of him have a higher ceiling, except maybe Godwin, who I trust more.

Pittman is a high-floor WR3 in my opinion.

Yeah tua should be higher. Dude is gonna be mvp and you don't even have him top 5

Being MVP doesn't mean someone has to be a top fantasy guy. 2021 Aaron Rodgers was QB7. 2009 Peyton Manning was QB5. 2008 Manning was QB7. 2003 Steve McNair was QB5.

I do think Miami's offense is being a little overrated due to this 70-point game. They are only a week removed from scoring 24 and having under 400 yards. Its a great offense, but people comparing them to the 99-01 Rams (which is happening in other threads) is a little silly in my eyes. Truthfully, I think its debatable whether they are the best offense in their own game this week.

I think the point is that he is the QB for what looks to be an all-time offense. He is remarkably efficient. Weapons everywhere. Having him at 8 is nuts IMO. Should be above everyone in tier 2 and probably above Hurts in tier 1 IMO.

I love your work though. Really enjoy reading this every week.

Glad you are finally coming around on Kamara Although, I think Carr going down actually hurts him as Winston doesn't check it down and I think when Carr gets back his receptions actually go up.

I know I probably sound like a wet blanket, but I think based on everything I'm reading on these threads since Monday, and stuff I'm seeing online. I think I'd be looking to sell all Miami players other than Hill and maybe Waddle. Tua doesn't run, and his volume isn't about to hit Cousins/Herbert level. He's also one hit away from his career being in jeopardy, and while that's technically true of everyone, its truer for him. I also feel like people are ignoring the NE game, where the offense certainly didn't look historically good.

I like Miami's offense a lot, but man, it really feels like people are expecting them to be capable of scoring 70 every week, and I think there are plenty of weeks they'll be under 30. Tua was a bad start in week 2. He was QB26 that week, behind guys like Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, and 2 series of Anthony Richardson. Its weird to me that game seems like its being looked at as the outlier, and not the 70 point game.

There probably is some truth to Kamara seeing fewer receptions with Winston instead of Carr. That said, with Williams out, I'm expecting more carries for Kamara during this stretch. Also, Kamara isn't really a monster pass catcher anymore. He's closer to an Aaron Jones than a CMC/Ekeler I think, and that's been the case since Brees retired. Kamara averaged 5.4 catches per game with Brees, its been 3.7 since. That's the difference of about 30 catches per season. Kamara has also had his 2 highest carry seasons in 21-22, and I think that's a lot closer to the version to expect regardless of who the Saints QB is, though we have a lot more proof with Winston.

 

[jobarules]

Pittman seems low at 32?? Why the big drop?

I just don't see much upside. He doesn't get big plays, he's in a low value passing game (one in which his target number is ideal, but the targets being so short isn't) and I think all the guys I have ahead of him have a higher ceiling, except maybe Godwin, who I trust more.

Pittman is a high-floor WR3 in my opinion.

Yeah tua should be higher. Dude is gonna be mvp and you don't even have him top 5

Being MVP doesn't mean someone has to be a top fantasy guy. 2021 Aaron Rodgers was QB7. 2009 Peyton Manning was QB5. 2008 Manning was QB7. 2003 Steve McNair was QB5.

I do think Miami's offense is being a little overrated due to this 70-point game. They are only a week removed from scoring 24 and having under 400 yards. Its a great offense, but people comparing them to the 99-01 Rams (which is happening in other threads) is a little silly in my eyes. Truthfully, I think its debatable whether they are the best offense in their own game this week.

I think the point is that he is the QB for what looks to be an all-time offense. He is remarkably efficient. Weapons everywhere. Having him at 8 is nuts IMO. Should be above everyone in tier 2 and probably above Hurts in tier 1 IMO.

I love your work though. Really enjoy reading this every week.

Glad you are finally coming around on Kamara Although, I think Carr going down actually hurts him as Winston doesn't check it down and I think when Carr gets back his receptions actually go up.

I know I probably sound like a wet blanket, but I think based on everything I'm reading on these threads since Monday, and stuff I'm seeing online. I think I'd be looking to sell all Miami players other than Hill and maybe Waddle. Tua doesn't run, and his volume isn't about to hit Cousins/Herbert level. He's also one hit away from his career being in jeopardy, and while that's technically true of everyone, its truer for him. I also feel like people are ignoring the NE game, where the offense certainly didn't look historically good.

I like Miami's offense a lot, but man, it really feels like people are expecting them to be capable of scoring 70 every week, and I think there are plenty of weeks they'll be under 30. Tua was a bad start in week 2. He was QB26 that week, behind guys like Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, and 2 series of Anthony Richardson. Its weird to me that game seems like its being looked at as the outlier, and not the 70 point game.

Week 2 WAS the outlier. He scored 40 points in my league weeks 1 & 3 vs bad defenses and 20 points week 2 vs a very good defense. Also you keep talking about the 70 point game as if he throw 1000 passes. He threw 26, his lowest total of the season. Yeah there is some flukiness in his YPA and TDs but that will always exist for him due to the amount of pure speed the team has on offense. And they didnt even have Waddle.

 

[Tau837]

Dropped off: Raheem Mostert (19), the most obvious sell high I've maybe ever seen. Great if you started him last week, but he just lost his stranglehold on the starting job in my opinion. As a 30+ RB, with a lengthy injury history, the time to get out is now.

You mentioned his injury history, is it mainly that, or do you think Achane will surpass him significantly even if Mostert stays healthy? Mostert has been really good so far, and my recollection is that he is a favorite of HC McDaniel (but maybe I'm misremembering that...).

Dropped off: Mike Williams (28), sucks to see him go down again. He was on a 1300-6 pace. Be curious to see who steps up in his absence, my gut says Palmer/Johnston split the role, and Ekeler/TEs see more targets.

I agree that Palmer and Johnston will split the role. Also, note that deep threat Jalen Guyton is eligible to come off the PUP list after this week, so he could be back after the bye. I expect he will also be in the mix when healthy... still behind Palmer and Johnston, but with enough opportunities to hold their production down a bit. I doubt Ekeler will get much of an uptick, if any, once healthy. The TEs could get more targets, but I doubt it will be significant.

 

[travdogg]

Dropped off: Raheem Mostert (19), the most obvious sell high I've maybe ever seen. Great if you started him last week, but he just lost his stranglehold on the starting job in my opinion. As a 30+ RB, with a lengthy injury history, the time to get out is now.

You mentioned his injury history, is it mainly that, or do you think Achane will surpass him significantly even if Mostert stays healthy? Mostert has been really good so far, and my recollection is that he is a favorite of HC McDaniel (but maybe I'm misremembering that...).

Dropped off: Mike Williams (28), sucks to see him go down again. He was on a 1300-6 pace. Be curious to see who steps up in his absence, my gut says Palmer/Johnston split the role, and Ekeler/TEs see more targets.

I agree that Palmer and Johnston will split the role. Also, note that deep threat Jalen Guyton is eligible to come off the PUP list after this week, so he could be back after the bye. I expect he will also be in the mix when healthy... still behind Palmer and Johnston, but with enough opportunities to hold their production down a bit. I doubt Ekeler will get much of an uptick, if any, once healthy. The TEs could get more targets, but I doubt it will be significant.

I do think Achane will be the #1 soon enough. I think he just brings more to the table. I've thought that since he was drafted (thought Achane should have been a 2nd round pick in April) and certainly helped his case last week. I think he just got hurt and it slowed his preseason. I also think Jeff Wilson could get involved. He was working as the starter in May. Both Mostert and Wilson were with McDaniel in SF, so its tough to say if there is any favoritism. Mostert and Wilson are also 2 of the least durable RBs in the NFL, so that also points in the favor of Achane. I was tempted to rank Achane higher, but I try really hard not to overreact to 1 week.

I did forget about Guyton, he's been out for a long time hasn't he, will he still have his deep speed? I'm really high on Ekeler. Truth be told, if he hadn't had this ankle injury, I might have him over CMC. I'm not sure Johnston doesn't end up running away with the #2 job in time, but yeah, I think at least these first couple weeks, its a bit of a WRBC opposite Allen.

 

[Tau837]

I did forget about Guyton, he's been out for a long time hasn't he, will he still have his deep speed? I'm really high on Ekeler. Truth be told, if he hadn't had this ankle injury, I might have him over CMC. I'm not sure Johnston doesn't end up running away with the #2 job in time, but yeah, I think at least these first couple weeks, its a bit of a WRBC opposite Allen.

Guyton tore his ACL in week 3 last season, so he has been out exactly a year. AFAIK most players make full recoveries from ACLs nowadays without any loss of speed, so I'm assuming he will still be the primary speed threat. (Returner Davis is a WR who is super fast but Guyton is a much bigger and more complete WR than Davis.)

I have always liked Guyton. He probably will never be fantasy useful, but I think he will make a positive impact when he returns, especially with Williams out.

Guyton highlights.