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travdogg's quick draft grades/rankings (1 Viewer)

T

travdogg

Footballguy
Just a quick look at how much I think each team improved in the draft. I didn't count picks that were traded for players, just counting how much the guys drafted in 2021 will help. I also didn't punish or reward much for value, mostly just quality of additions.

1. NYJ=A+
Best pick: Zach Wilson
Worst pick: Jamien Sherwood
Best value: Michael Carter(RB)

2. Mia=A+
Best pick: Jaylen Waddle
Worst pick: Hunter Long
Best value: Jaylen Waddle

3. Jax=A+
Best pick: Trevor Lawrence
Worst pick: Tyson Campbell
Best value: Walker Little

4. Ten=A
Best pick: Caleb Farley
Worst pick: Monty Rice
Best value: Rashad Weaver

5. Den=A
Best Pick: Patrick Surtain
Worst pick: Baron Browning
Best value: Jamar Johnson

6. NE=A
Best pick: Christian Barmore
Worst pick: Rhamondre Stephenson
Best value: Ronnie Perkins

7. Det=A-
Best pick: Penei Sewell
Worst pick: Derrick Barnes
Best value: Ifeatu Melifonwu

8. Chi=A-
Best pick: Justin Fields
Worst pick: Larry Borom
Best value: Thomas Graham

9. Cin=A-
Best pick: Ja'Marr Chase
Worst pick: Tyler Shelvin
Best value: Cameron Sample

10. LAC=B+
Best pick: Rashawn Slater
Worst pick: Tre' McKitty
Best value: Asante Samuel

11. Was=B+
Best pick: Samuel Cosmi
Worst pick: John Bates
Best value: Dyami Brown

12. Dal=B+
Best pick: Micah Parsons
Worst pick: Chauncey Golston
Best value: Jabril Cox

13. Car=B
Best pick: Jaycee Horn
Worst pick: Chuba Hubbard
Best value: Terrace Marshall

14. Phi=B
Best pick: Devonta Smith
Worst pick: Zech McPherson
Best value: Patrick Johnson

15. Cle=B
Best pick: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Worst pick: Anthony Schwartz
Best value: Tommy Togiai

16. NYG=B-
Best pick: Azeez Ojulari
Worst pick: Elerson Smith
Best value: Azeez Ojulari

17. Bal=B-
Best pick: Rashod Bateman
Worst pick: Brandon Stephens
Best value: Rashod Bateman

18. Ari=B-
Best pick: Rondale Moore
Worst pick: Marco Wilson
Best value: Tay Gowan

19. Atl=C+
Best pick: Kyle Pitts
Worst pick: Jalen Mayfield
Best value: Kyle Pitts

20. LV=C+
Best pick: Trevon Moehrig
Worst pick: Malcolm Koonce
Best value: Trevon Moehrig

21. Min=C+
Best pick: Christian Darrisaw
Worst pick: Chazz Surratt
Best value: Wyatt Davis

22. Buf=C
Best pick: Gregory Rousseau
Worst pick: Spencer Brown
Best value: Carlos Basham

23. KC=C
Best pick: Nick Bolton
Worst pick: Joshua Kaindoh
Best value: Trey Smith

24. Pit=C
Best pick: Pat Freiermuth
Worst pick: Dan Moore
Best value: Kendrick Green

25. Ind=C-
Best pick: Kwity Paye
Worst pick: Kylen Granson
Best value: Kwity Paye

26. SF=C-
Best pick: Trey Lance
Worst pick: Aaron Banks
Best value: Trey Lance

27. TB=C-
Best pick: Kyle Trask
Worst pick: KJ Britt
Best value: Jaelon Darden

28. NO=D+
Best pick: Payton Turner
Worst pick: Paulson Adebo
Best value: Payton Turner

29. GB=D+
Best pick: Eric Stokes
Worst pick: Josh Myers
Best value: Eric Stokes

30. Sea=D+
Best pick: Stone Forsythe
Worst pick: D'Wayne Eskridge
Best value: Stone Forsythe

31. Hou=D
Best pick: Davis Mills
Worst pick: Nico Collins
Best value: Davis Mills

32. LAR=D
Best pick: Bobby Brown
Worst pick: Tutu Atwell
Best value: Bobby Brown

 
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Thanks for the effort, trav.

I love that the Jets got an A+. Thanks! But Jax getting an A+ by picking a running back in the first round sounds like an A+ really means that an A+ equals a highly suspect draft. I'm no disgruntled Robinson guy; I just don't see how drafting Etienne with the 25th pick at a devalued position -- when you have so many needs on defense -- merits a grade as good as that one. 

I'm not getting on you, it's more of a jumping off point to criticize Urban Meyer. He later said that the biggest snipe he faced was Kadarius Toney going at #20, which left just about everybody who works with college production stats incredulous.  He's got Chark, Shenault, and Marvin Jones at WR, plus others. Indeed, Sigmund Bloom asked something to the effect of, "Does he know Laviska Shenault plays for his team?" 

One might have asked the same question about Robinson. 

 
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I'll start with Miami who you passed out an A+ to, not sure everyone in that camp or the fans around here will agree with you. 

-Waddle at WR, most feel that's a large infusion of talent into Miami.

-Phillips was the first DE/Edge player off the board and joins Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Bradley Chubb and Nick Bosa over the last 5 years in the Draft. Hope he can get off to a fast career start like most of these guys. 

-Jevon Holland was the first Safety off the board. 

-You must like Eich as an IOL as much as some of us. 

-Hunter Long is actually a solid all round type who will be able to play inline a little more than Gesicki who is an excellent receiving TE but doesn't add a lot to our run blocking.  

4 Starters if we are running 3-wide WR sets. Phillips will start or see action immediately, Holland also will likely send Eric Rowe($6.5M) to the cut list after June 1st, I expect him to start the whole season. Eich will likely see a lot of action at LG along with Jesse Davis is my take but he could be starting as well.    

Great thread idea. 

 
If we grade teams just for not reaching on players earlier than they were projected to go, with a small bonus for getting good value on players significantly after they were expected to go, the grades come out like this:

DEN 100% A+
CHI 99% A+
BUF 93% A
DET 93% A
CLE 88% B+
NE 88% B+
ARI 88% B+
KC 88% B+
PHI 88% B+
CAR 86% B
CIN 85% B
NYG 85% B
NYJ 82% B-
TEN 81% B-
BAL 80% B-
JAX 80% B-
MIA 79% C+
LAC 74% C
MIN 73% C
HOU 72% C-
WAS 71% C-
SEA 70% C-
PIT 70% C-
TB 69% D+
ATL 69% D+
IND 69% D+
SF 68% D+
GB 68% D+
DAL 64% D
LV 64% D
NO 57% F
LAR 44% F

The percentages are what came out of my calculations, and they just happen to match the standard grading scale with a relatively harsh curve (a C+ average).

These are not quite overall grades, since they aren't affected by trades, or player-team fit, or whether the team seems to have a plan, or any evaluation of the player besides where he was ranked on pre-draft big boards.

 
woodstock said:
Thanks for the effort, trav.

I love that the Jets got an A+. Thanks! But Jax getting an A+ by picking a running back in the first round sounds like an A+ really means that an A+ equals a highly suspect draft. I'm no disgruntled Robinson guy; I just don't see how drafting Etienne with the 25th pick at a devalued position -- when you have so many needs on defense -- merits a grade as good as that one. 

I'm not getting on you, it's more of a jumping off point to criticize Urban Meyer. He later said that the biggest snipe he faced was Kadarius Toney going at #20, which left just about everybody who works with college production stats incredulous.  He's got Chark, Shenault, and Marvin Jones at WR, plus others. Indeed, Sigmund Bloom asked something to the effect of, "Does he know Laviska Shenault plays for his team?" 

One might have asked the same question about Robinson. 
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I wasn't a fan of the Etienne pick that high either, but I do think he is a good player. I was ranking more on overall talent upgrades than reaches v. steals. I really like the Walker Little and Andre Cisco picks a ton, and obviously Lawrence was the best player in the draft. 

Overall, I haven't been a big fab of the Jags offseason. They haven't gotten the greatest return on the the league's most cap space, and I think Meyer was a very risky hire. That said, I think they got 3 long term starters, with 2 at very valuable positions, and a playmaker at RB. 

Where they took Etienne, I probably would have gone Barmore myself. 

Ministry of Pain said:
I'll start with Miami who you passed out an A+ to, not sure everyone in that camp or the fans around here will agree with you. 

-Waddle at WR, most feel that's a large infusion of talent into Miami.

-Phillips was the first DE/Edge player off the board and joins Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, Bradley Chubb and Nick Bosa over the last 5 years in the Draft. Hope he can get off to a fast career start like most of these guys. 

-Jevon Holland was the first Safety off the board. 

-You must like Eich as an IOL as much as some of us. 

-Hunter Long is actually a solid all round type who will be able to play inline a little more than Gesicki who is an excellent receiving TE but doesn't add a lot to our run blocking.  

4 Starters if we are running 3-wide WR sets. Phillips will start or see action immediately, Holland also will likely send Eric Rowe($6.5M) to the cut list after June 1st, I expect him to start the whole season. Eich will likely see a lot of action at LG along with Jesse Davis is my take but he could be starting as well.    

Great thread idea. 
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I had Miami as the best draft after round 2, then I thought the Jets passed them in round(and day) 3.

I don't think Phillips is likely to live up to the Bosas or Garrett level, but I think Chubb is reasonable.

I was thinking Eichenberg would play RT, and Hunt would move to LG. Jackson/Hunt/Skura/Fluker/Eichenberg is how I was thinking the OL would look.

I'm just not a fan of Long. I think he's a mediocre receiver, whom offers little after the catch. Blocking TE's are a dime a dozen. I would have liked to see another front seven guy there. Maybe Perkins or Cox? Maybe I'm underrating Long, but I think he's a career TE2. 

You think Rowe gets released? I was thinking they would keep him, and work Holland in slowly, with Holland taking the job either midseason or next year, depending on the rate he develops at. I do agree though, with 4 long term starters.

I wonder if Waddle or Fuller plays in the slot, because I doubt it will be Parker. I think the slot "go" route is one of the hardest things for a defense to defend, because it basically forces teams to play 1-1 on the outside, or play the Safeties WAY off. So the constant threat of that(especially with WR's who aren't 1 trick ponies) is going to be a defensive nightmare. 

 
travdogg said:
I wasn't a fan of the Etienne pick that high either, but I do think he is a good player. I was ranking more on overall talent upgrades than reaches v. steals. I really like the Walker Little and Andre Cisco picks a ton, and obviously Lawrence was the best player in the draft. 

Overall, I haven't been a big fab of the Jags offseason. They haven't gotten the greatest return on the the league's most cap space, and I think Meyer was a very risky hire. That said, I think they got 3 long term starters, with 2 at very valuable positions, and a playmaker at RB. 

Where they took Etienne, I probably would have gone Barmore myself. 

I had Miami as the best draft after round 2, then I thought the Jets passed them in round(and day) 3.

I don't think Phillips is likely to live up to the Bosas or Garrett level, but I think Chubb is reasonable.

I was thinking Eichenberg would play RT, and Hunt would move to LG. Jackson/Hunt/Skura/Fluker/Eichenberg is how I was thinking the OL would look.

I'm just not a fan of Long. I think he's a mediocre receiver, whom offers little after the catch. Blocking TE's are a dime a dozen. I would have liked to see another front seven guy there. Maybe Perkins or Cox? Maybe I'm underrating Long, but I think he's a career TE2. 

You think Rowe gets released? I was thinking they would keep him, and work Holland in slowly, with Holland taking the job either midseason or next year, depending on the rate he develops at. I do agree though, with 4 long term starters.

I wonder if Waddle or Fuller plays in the slot, because I doubt it will be Parker. I think the slot "go" route is one of the hardest things for a defense to defend, because it basically forces teams to play 1-1 on the outside, or play the Safeties WAY off. So the constant threat of that(especially with WR's who aren't 1 trick ponies) is going to be a defensive nightmare. 
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Fuller, Waddle and the Unicorn will draw defenders with them assuming Tua can connect once in a while and that should open things up underneath for Gesicki, Parker and Gaskin to move the chains. Don't lose sight of who does the heavy lifting on this team. 

 
travdogg said:
7. Det=A-
Best pick: Penei Sewell
Worst pick: Derrick Barnes
Best value: Ifeatu Melifonwu

12. Dal=B+
Best pick: Micah Parsons
Worst pick: Chauncey Golston
Best value: Jabril Cox
Click to expand...
The Lions moved up 40 spots to get their guy. They desperately need cover guys (the PFF grades in 2020 reflect they’re the worst backers in the league by a wide margin), and the BEST slot cover guy in the draft is just sitting there. Cox has injury concerns but goodness I don’t think there’s any chance Barnes (who is very athletic) has the same ceiling. The Cowboys got a second round talent gifted to them at #115.

Overall I loved the Lions process. Sewell has the potential to lift a top ten O-line into elite status. Goff ain’t gonna have anyone to throw to besides Hock & Swift but #### it, we’ll worry about that next year when we’ve got $70M in cap space and a better draft slot.

Detroit finally has a GM and HC who are committed to building it from the inside out.

 
travdogg said:
Best pick: Jaycee Horn
Worst pick: Chuba Hubbard
Best value: Terrace Marshall
Click to expand...
Why do you think Hubbard was the worst pick?  McCaffrey missed 13 games last year, and Mike Davis is no longer on the roster. Bonnafon and Scarlett were the only RBs left behind McCaffrey, and it seemed logical the Panthers were going to draft someone or bring someone else in. I think Hubbard will be a nice backup to McCaffrey, and McCaffrey will be great mentor to him. I expect the Panthers to give McCaffrey more breathers this coming season, and I think Hubbard has the potential to be a nice tandem partner with McCaffrey. I hope so anyways. Rhule has also seen first hand how he plays by playing against him in college. I'd have drafted him just cause I dig the name Chuba Hubbard.

 
simey said:
Why do you think Hubbard was the worst pick?  McCaffrey missed 13 games last year, and Mike Davis is no longer on the roster. Bonnafon and Scarlett were the only RBs left behind McCaffrey, and it seemed logical the Panthers were going to draft someone or bring someone else in. I think Hubbard will be a nice backup to McCaffrey, and McCaffrey will be great mentor to him. I expect the Panthers to give McCaffrey more breathers this coming season, and I think Hubbard has the potential to be a nice tandem partner with McCaffrey. I hope so anyways. Rhule has also seen first hand how he plays by playing against him in college. I'd have drafted him just cause I dig the name Chuba Hubbard.
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I have no problems with Carolina bringing in a RB at some point. Its mostly a combination of me not thinking very highly of Hubbard, there being multiple better(or at least comparable) RB's available than Hubbard, and Carolina being a team with a litany of needs, where a 4th round pick shouldn't be a backup RB, especially one who barring injury will likely only see about 4 touches a week.  

I highly doubt CMC gets more breathers this season. He actually saw an even bigger workload than ever under Rhule, even after Davis had carried the load for several weeks. I'm fully expecting 250+ carries and 100+ targets. I really don't think CMC is thought of by Carolina as an injury risk, nor should he be. 

 
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I like banks as a much needed OL depth pick at RG.

Lance & Sermon could well be two critical building blocks. The safety is a hitter & the corners added depth to a need position. 

c- seems a smidge low for the Niners. I could see a B being fair depending how one feels about Lance, or Sermon, or both, but C-? 

nah

 
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ZWK said:
If we grade teams just for not reaching on players earlier than they were projected to go, with a small bonus for getting good value on players significantly after they were expected to go, the grades come out like this:

DEN 100% A+
CHI 99% A+
BUF 93% A
DET 93% A
CLE 88% B+
NE 88% B+
ARI 88% B+
KC 88% B+
PHI 88% B+
CAR 86% B
CIN 85% B
NYG 85% B
NYJ 82% B-
TEN 81% B-
BAL 80% B-
JAX 80% B-
MIA 79% C+
LAC 74% C
MIN 73% C
HOU 72% C-
WAS 71% C-
SEA 70% C-
PIT 70% C-
TB 69% D+
ATL 69% D+
IND 69% D+
SF 68% D+
GB 68% D+
DAL 64% D
LV 64% D
NO 57% F
LAR 44% F

The percentages are what came out of my calculations, and they just happen to match the standard grading scale with a relatively harsh curve (a C+ average).

These are not quite overall grades, since they aren't affected by trades, or player-team fit, or whether the team seems to have a plan, or any evaluation of the player besides where he was ranked on pre-draft big boards.
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Quick Question does this weigh by relative pick value at all?  i.e. does a round 7 guy going in round 6 have the same effect as a round 2 guy going in round 1?  Anyway thanks for the effort :)

-QG

 
Early picks matter a lot more.

My first idea was to apply a draft value chart to a pre-draft big board to give each player a "Player Value", e.g. the guy listed 17th on the big board has a "Player Value" equal to what the 17th pick of the draft is worth according to the draft value chart. Then for each team I add up the Player Value of all the guys they drafted, and I add up the Pick Value of the picks they selected those guys with, and then I divide those numbers. Earlier picks involve bigger numbers for the Player Value & Pick Value, so they have much more influence on a team's rating.

I didn't like how much credit this gave teams for steals - if a player who was ranked as a 3rd rounder on the big board fell to the 7th, then there was probably a reason for that and he's not actually worth 3rd round Player Value. (This is less true for reaches, like a 7th round rated player who is drafted in the 3rd, because a) it just takes one team to reach whereas it takes 32 teams to let a guy fall, and 2) the extra non-public information that teams have, like medicals & character stuff, is negative more often than it's positive.) So I redid things while capping Player Value so that it could never be larger than Pick Value, e.g. if the 17th ranked player is drafted at 52 then his Player Value is the value of the 52nd pick. This increases the extent to which early picks matter more than later picks, because now later picks can't even get a decent sized Player Value.

My final calculation is about 70% the 2nd thing, 15% the 1st thing, and 15% another thing which does make every pick equally important.

 
ZWK said:
Early picks matter a lot more.

My first idea was to apply a draft value chart to a pre-draft big board to give each player a "Player Value", e.g. the guy listed 17th on the big board has a "Player Value" equal to what the 17th pick of the draft is worth according to the draft value chart. Then for each team I add up the Player Value of all the guys they drafted, and I add up the Pick Value of the picks they selected those guys with, and then I divide those numbers. Earlier picks involve bigger numbers for the Player Value & Pick Value, so they have much more influence on a team's rating.

I didn't like how much credit this gave teams for steals - if a player who was ranked as a 3rd rounder on the big board fell to the 7th, then there was probably a reason for that and he's not actually worth 3rd round Player Value. (This is less true for reaches, like a 7th round rated player who is drafted in the 3rd, because a) it just takes one team to reach whereas it takes 32 teams to let a guy fall, and 2) the extra non-public information that teams have, like medicals & character stuff, is negative more often than it's positive.) So I redid things while capping Player Value so that it could never be larger than Pick Value, e.g. if the 17th ranked player is drafted at 52 then his Player Value is the value of the 52nd pick. This increases the extent to which early picks matter more than later picks, because now later picks can't even get a decent sized Player Value.

My final calculation is about 70% the 2nd thing, 15% the 1st thing, and 15% another thing which does make every pick equally important.
Click to expand...
@Joe Bryant hire this guy ;)  

 
Grading drafts when not a single player has played a single down in the NFL has always been a silly exercise. 

That being said, some things are hard to evaluate . . . are we only looking at the individual player or all the resources allocated to get said player? For example . . . which of the following is the best value?

Trey Lance (Ranked 10th overall by PFF) - Cost a 12 to 3 pick swap, 2022 first, 2023 first, and a 2021 third.
Justin Fields (Ranked 3rd overall by PFF) - Cost a 20 to 11 pick swap, 2022 first, 2022 fourth, and a 2021 fifth.
Mac Jones (Ranked 14th overall by PFF) - Cost the 15th pick.

Again, we won't know for awhile which QB's will pan out and which ones won't.

Sticking with the Patriots, they also drafted PFF's #12 ranked player at Pick 38 (Christian Barmore), PFF's #61 ranked player at Pick 96 (Ronnie Perkins), and PFF's #123 ranked player at Pick 177 (Cameron McGrone). Sure, NE took some guys way early at the end of the draft, but the front part of their draft was solid. That's why multiple places ranked NE with an A+/A level grade this draft.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Grading drafts when not a single player has played a single down in the NFL has always been a silly exercise. 

That being said, some things are hard to evaluate . . . are we only looking at the individual player or all the resources allocated to get said player? For example . . . which of the following is the best value?

Trey Lance (Ranked 10th overall by PFF) - Cost a 12 to 3 pick swap, 2022 first, 2023 first, and a 2021 third.
Justin Fields (Ranked 3rd overall by PFF) - Cost a 20 to 11 pick swap, 2022 first, 2022 fourth, and a 2021 fifth.
Mac Jones (Ranked 14th overall by PFF) - Cost the 15th pick.

Again, we won't know for awhile which QB's will pan out and which ones won't.

Sticking with the Patriots, they also drafted PFF's #12 ranked player at Pick 38 (Christian Barmore), PFF's #61 ranked player at Pick 96 (Ronnie Perkins), and PFF's #123 ranked player at Pick 177 (Cameron McGrone). Sure, NE took some guys way early at the end of the draft, but the front part of their draft was solid. That's why multiple places ranked NE with an A+/A level grade this draft.
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Patriots will miss playoffs again  :excited:

 
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