Travis Henry vs. Indy (1 Viewer)

[timschochet]

He did get a TD last week, but his numbers were not up to par. The Colts have been good so far against the run. Does he get his yards and a TD? Or shut down?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I have a feeling that the Colts are going to run and throw short passes all day vs. the Broncos defense, so the Broncos offense might come up well on the short end of the time of possession stick again. If so, Henry might only get 10-15 carries.

 

[timschochet]

I have a feeling that the Colts are going to run and throw short passes all day vs. the Broncos defense, so the Broncos offense might come up well on the short end of the time of possession stick again. If so, Henry might only get 10-15 carries.

Is that what happened last week to Henry? I admit I didn't see any of that game. Did the Broncos just not have enough TOP?

 

[rumblinbumblinstumbler]

I have a feeling that the Colts are going to run and throw short passes all day vs. the Broncos defense, so the Broncos offense might come up well on the short end of the time of possession stick again. If so, Henry might only get 10-15 carries.

Is that what happened last week to Henry? I admit I didn't see any of that game. Did the Broncos just not have enough TOP?

This is exactly what happened. Denver just didn't have the ball. Their first drive they didn't run and went 3 and out and I don't believe they got the ball back again until into the 2nd quarter. They just didn't have the ball enough to establish anything and they were playing from behind all game.Now, that could happen this weekend again no doubt. Indy could put them in a hole and they may end up not rushing much, but, he wasn't "shut down" last week. It was mainly just lack of time of possession and being behind.

 

[The Jerk]

I have a feeling that the Colts are going to run and throw short passes all day vs. the Broncos defense, so the Broncos offense might come up well on the short end of the time of possession stick again. If so, Henry might only get 10-15 carries.

Is that what happened last week to Henry? I admit I didn't see any of that game. Did the Broncos just not have enough TOP?

This is exactly what happened. Denver just didn't have the ball. Their first drive they didn't run and went 3 and out and I don't believe they got the ball back again until into the 2nd quarter. They just didn't have the ball enough to establish anything and they were playing from behind all game.Now, that could happen this weekend again no doubt. Indy could put them in a hole and they may end up not rushing much, but, he wasn't "shut down" last week. It was mainly just lack of time of possession and being behind.

Mostly agree here that the time of possession and game-long deficit the Broncos faced were largely responsible for Henry not ever getting going, but he only averaged about 3 ypc as well, so it was a little bit of being shut down, too.

 

[gianmarco]

I have a feeling that the Colts are going to run and throw short passes all day vs. the Broncos defense, so the Broncos offense might come up well on the short end of the time of possession stick again. If so, Henry might only get 10-15 carries.

Is that what happened last week to Henry? I admit I didn't see any of that game. Did the Broncos just not have enough TOP?

This is exactly what happened. Denver just didn't have the ball. Their first drive they didn't run and went 3 and out and I don't believe they got the ball back again until into the 2nd quarter. They just didn't have the ball enough to establish anything and they were playing from behind all game.Now, that could happen this weekend again no doubt. Indy could put them in a hole and they may end up not rushing much, but, he wasn't "shut down" last week. It was mainly just lack of time of possession and being behind.

Mostly agree here that the time of possession and game-long deficit the Broncos faced were largely responsible for Henry not ever getting going, but he only averaged about 3 ypc as well, so it was a little bit of being shut down, too.

It was only 11 carries he had. Just not enough for ypc to really mean anything. Even if he gained 66 yds on 11 carries averaging 6.0 ypc wouldn't mean he was that much more effective or not as 66 yds isn't good either. He just didn't get the ball enough last week. I don't think Denver allows that to happen again.

 

[PatsFan72]

Indy has been doing a good job at containing runners, the longest gain by a RB this season is 13 yards, but they do give up 3-5 yard chunks often when people are rushing on them, unfortunately most teams are playing catch-up and the run game takes a back seat...

Attempts

_NO 41 PAS 26 RUS

TEN 27 PAS 34 RUS (including 5 by Vince Young) and this was a close game

HOU 33 PAS 17 RUS

They gave up 141 yards rushing to TEN because they actually tried to run, and that includes a -15 yarder by J.Bell.

So, although there rushing D is ranked in the middle of the pack, they are not as good as that ranking, and get a big boost by having such a great offense.

If you believe the Broncos D can keep things close, this could be a good week for Travis Henry, or even Selvin Young if this is the week one 2nd string DEN RB goes off.

 

[The Jerk]

It was only 11 carries he had. Just not enough for ypc to really mean anything. Even if he gained 66 yds on 11 carries averaging 6.0 ypc wouldn't mean he was that much more effective or not as 66 yds isn't good either. He just didn't get the ball enough last week. I don't think Denver allows that to happen again.

Part of the reason he only had 11 carries is because he was not being effective in the carries he got, so the 3.2 ypc is somewhat significant. Is there a magic number I'm not aware about that determines exactly when ypc does or does not matter? I wasn't a math major, but if he had 66 yards instead of 35 yards on those 11 carries, it would mean he was being twice as effective, and it almost certainly would have enabled the Broncos to give Henry at least a few more carries.For most of the game, the Broncos were reasonably close so that if they were chewing up yards on the ground, they could have stayed with it. As for Denver making sure it doesn't happen again, that will again depend on game situations and effectiveness.I'm not too concerned about Henry, as it is just one game, but it's not something that should be completely dismissed either. The only real positive was a TD and an unsuccessful carry from the 1-yard line.

 

[gianmarco]

It was only 11 carries he had. Just not enough for ypc to really mean anything. Even if he gained 66 yds on 11 carries averaging 6.0 ypc wouldn't mean he was that much more effective or not as 66 yds isn't good either. He just didn't get the ball enough last week. I don't think Denver allows that to happen again.

Part of the reason he only had 11 carries is because he was not being effective in the carries he got, so the 3.2 ypc is somewhat significant. Is there a magic number I'm not aware about that determines exactly when ypc does or does not matter? I wasn't a math major, but if he had 66 yards instead of 35 yards on those 11 carries, it would mean he was being twice as effective, and it almost certainly would have enabled the Broncos to give Henry at least a few more carries.For most of the game, the Broncos were reasonably close so that if they were chewing up yards on the ground, they could have stayed with it. As for Denver making sure it doesn't happen again, that will again depend on game situations and effectiveness.

I'm not too concerned about Henry, as it is just one game, but it's not something that should be completely dismissed either. The only real positive was a TD and an unsuccessful carry from the 1-yard line.

I'm sorry, but that isn't the case. You can go back and look at the play-by-play. Travis Henry got all of THREE carries in the entire first half (4 if you count a play that was called back on a penalty). That's unacceptable. Denver had 3 offensive possessions in the entire 1st half. The very 1st came early in the 1st qtr and was a 3 and out. They never saw the ball again until the 2nd qtr when they put together a drive (the drive where Henry had his 3 carries) and scored on a passing TD. They had 1 more drive with 2 min left in the 2nd qtr and Selvin Young fumbled on the 2nd play. That's it. Now, if you want to say Henry didn't get carries because he was ineffective based on that, then fine. I disagree. 3 carries for your starting RB in a half just doesn't cut it. Again, a lot of that is because Jax completely controlled the ball for the 1st half of the game. Btw, on those 3 carries, he had a gain of 6 yds, then no gain, and no gain. Onto the 2nd half, and Henry got the ball a little bit more with a total of 8 carries for 30 yds. On one drive, he had a 6 yd run, a 5 yd run, and then a 6 yd run for a TD. His getting 11 carries during the game had nothing to do with his ineffectiveness but more so with Jax taking them out of their game plan and bad play-calling (IMO). I think once Denver goes back and reevaluates what happened last week, they'll see that they are more effective when they establish the run more than they did against Jax (and not turn the ball over as well).

 

[Warpig]

Indy has been doing a good job at containing runners, the longest gain by a RB this season is 13 yards, but they do give up 3-5 yard chunks often when people are rushing on them, unfortunately most teams are playing catch-up and the run game takes a back seat...

Solid defense for the offense Indy runs. Let them kick field goals while your offense is tossing TD's. Sound strategy.

 

[Gopher State]

I have a feeling that the Colts are going to run and throw short passes all day vs. the Broncos defense, so the Broncos offense might come up well on the short end of the time of possession stick again. If so, Henry might only get 10-15 carries.

Is that what happened last week to Henry? I admit I didn't see any of that game. Did the Broncos just not have enough TOP?

Jac ran the ball 47 times against Denver, I don't see Indy running the ball this much. Henry should be fine.

 

[The Jerk]

I'm sorry, but that isn't the case. You can go back and look at the play-by-play.

gianmarco, You are not the only person who knows how to view the play-by-play. People can disagree with you and yet still be informed. Here's my post from a thread earlier in the week:

I kept checking into game center and the game thread as well. At first I thought he hurt himself in warmups, as he didn't have a touch in the first quarter. Then I saw in the play-by-play that Shanahan got cute and started the game with an end around, then a penalty put them in 2nd and 17. Only one possession in the first quarter.I check in again late in the second quarter, thinking he might get something in a two minute drill. Oops. Another cute play, let's give the ball to the backup and surprise them. FUMBLE!That's OK, though. Denver gets the ball to start the second half. He'll get going then. Opening kickoff... FUMBLE!Not much Henry can do when he never gets the chance to get going. It's still disappointing, but credit Jacksonville's defense and blame Denver's decisions and fumbles more than Henry.

I am quite capable of understanding how the circumstances limit opportunities. We appear to disagree on whether or not 11 carries for 35 yards demonstrates effective running or not, and whether or not that is a sufficient number of carries to evaluate effectiveness. I'm in the "not" crowd for the first, and in the "I'm pretty sure it does" for the other. If Henry continues to average barely over three yards per carry, it will not bode well for the Broncos or his fantasy owners. While it's possible, and maybe likely, that had he gotten another 5-10 carries he would have popped a longer one to raise that average, it is not a definite thing.

 

[Judge Smails]

The problem is the defense. Specifically, the run D. Jax owned the clock last week, limiting Henry's chances. Indy will do the same this week. Expect a TON of Addai.

 

[The Jerk]

The problem is the defense. Specifically, the run D. Jax owned the clock last week, limiting Henry's chances. Indy will do the same this week. Expect a TON of Addai.

In the end, for FF it doesn't really matter whether or not Henry was ineffective or didn't get many opportuntiies. Either way, he will not be productive. I fear that could happen again this week, although I suspect the Broncos will be working on it. What makes FF fun is all the analysis at this point produces the expectation that the Colts will run all day. There's even a bench Manning, Wayne and Harrison thread out there. However, the Broncos know they will lose if they cannot stop the run, too. They can't just sell out entirely, but they may adjust and pick their spots on many occasions. If Manning and the Colts WRs catch them just a few times, they could end up with multiple long scores. This is why it's so tough to consistently pick the right players in your lineup based on analysis and projections. Over the long haul, the better players put up the better numbers regardless of matchup.