Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Trending Deep WR Sleepers (James, Hodgins, Shaheed) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Man, I am regretting that my one dollar bid on Shaheed got bested by a guy with a worse record bidding a dollar. I figured everybody was asleep at the wheel on weeknight and could grab him. Nope. No such luck. I could have just sent out a two-dollar bid and I'd be grinning all the way to the bank these days.
I like him (Shaheed) for dynasty purposes. We'll see if he lives up to this newfound preseason hype.
I like him (Shaheed) for dynasty purposes. We'll see if he lives up to this newfound preseason hype.
rockaction
Footballguy
I roster Chark in dynasty. I'd be very surprised if he busts loose this year. I don't know why, but I think we're always going to talk about a 4.34 6'4" guy in the "Whatever happened to...? How'd he miss?" category. And maybe quickly.
If he doesn't take the job and run with it, be scared. I don't think his Reception Perception (read: percentage of time open) numbers look very good.
Doug B
Footballguy
Not going to be able to risk that in a New Orleans league. Someone will take Shaheed as their WR4 in redraft. If Thomas has a setback in camp or preseason, Shaheed will go even higher than that.
Watching Shaheed last season reminded me a lot of watching Tyreek Hill in 2016. I'll make the call: Shaheed will be a fantasy WR1 going into 2025 drafts. Outside chance of reaching that status even for 2024, but he needs a lot of things to break certain ways.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's what I thought. I thought a basically free Shaheed would have to be worth it. Turns out somebody had the same idea I did, only the guy was below me in the standings.
Interesting prediction. We shall see. I'm not sure there's enough volume in the NO offense to turn him into a WR1 over Olave.
TripItUp
Footballguy
What if Thomas can't stay on the field?
With Carr behind center and no Thomas it's feasible that Shaheed takes substantial leap in volume.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was thinking about Olave. I didn't really mention or think of Thomas because I think Doug was talking about 2025. So yeah, Shaheed might be the second banana on the Saints, but even then I'm not sure the Saints offense can carry two guys that get WR1 volume. I don't think Derek Carr has ever been the guy to support two receivers in such a way.
I don't expect Dennis Allen to open up really, either. He was a lifelong D coordinator before coaching the Raiders, and he continued on the defensive side of the ball after. I don't know for certain, but it strikes me that old school guys like to run and control the football.
Long story short is that I don't expect Shaheed to get enough volume to be a WR1 going into 2025, which is admittedly a ways away.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Honestly even if he just projects out to this year from the last 6 games of last season when his snaps finally got over 50%, he'd be sitting around 60 rec. for about 1100 and 3 TDs. That'd make him a high end WR3. Being realistic, his crazy 82% efficiency will likely fall considering he gets mostly moderate - deep targets. But I also would figure some positive TD regression and a bump in snap share. It definitely will come down to how good MT looks and how long he stays healthy. If MT falters, Shaheed will look like a steal in hindsight. I still don't see a WR1 this year regardless, but a WR3 (probably with some volatility in week to week numbers) I think is a reasonable conservative projection.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
As much as I like him, I'd have to agree here. Even projecting Shaheed to be a talent level close to Hill; in that offense and with how amazing Olave looked, I don't see him being a WR1 in the near future like heading into 2025. Maybe if he goes D-Jax level nuts on numerous 70+ yard TD catches, but who would really continue projecting that forward even if it did happen one year. Too much volatility.
Doug B
Footballguy
I don't expect Olave to ultimately hold off Shaheed as the team's #1 wideout.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Considering I don't own Olave anywhere, I hope this is the case lol. But (and I'm probably in the minority here), I like him as an individual WR better than both London and Wilson already. Not sure why they both overshadowed him so much this offseason as most of their projection worthy stat numbers are even. Likely it's the Andy Dalton effect. Trying to parse out crap QB play and looking at a very sticky stat for WR projections like YPRR though, Olave topped both. In fact, he had the fifth highest YPRR for a rookie over the past decade; behind only Beckham, AJ Brown, Jefferson, and Chase. I know, just one stat. But I really wish I could get any of my leagues owners to sell him for even close to what I see his average going rate in other leagues. Hot take warning alarm: I think he's the next guy to move into that Chase/Jefferson tier. Carr did well enough keeping Adams there, I think he can do it with Olave. Hopefully the offense sees the potential and just lets it grow (kinda like Vikings did the JJ).
foxco
Footballguy
Now that's a take. Would love this as I have Shaheed in multiple leagues but is this realistic? Olave looked the part from what I saw, would be shocking if he became 2nd fiddle to Shaheed.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Top 12 WR? "Outside" better be pretty long odds. It's unlikely to be a high volume passing offense so Shaheed would need to pass over Chris Olave and have Thomas miss another full season.
I mean in the vein of "anything can happen" it can happen - but it's really not realistic at all.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
hmmmmm
Doug B
Footballguy
Stats aren't everything, but I found it interesting to look at Olave's and Shaheed's respective December/January games last season, when the two started games together. Olave was still playing the Z-receiver position he started the season with. Shaheed was playing the X position, by then vacated by Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. Their usages started to essentially converge over those last several games.
Stats in order: Offensive Snaps / Targets / Receptions / Yards
Week 13, @ Tampa Bay
Olave - 41 / 6 / 4 / 65
Shaheed - 36 / 4 / 4 / 75
Week 15, ATLANTA
Olave - 27 / 4 / 3 / 53
Shaheed - 39 / 4 / 3 / 95 (1 TD)
Week 16, @ Cleveland (This was a snow-and-wind game, six degrees F outside. Saints only attempted 15 passes)
Olave - DNP - Hamstring
Shaheed - 23 / 5 / 4 / 41
Week 17, @ Philadelphia
Olave - 42 / 5 / 4 / 42
Shaheed - 36 / 4 / 4 / 75
Week 18, CAROLINA
Olave - 36 / 12 / 5 / 60 (1 TD)
Shaheed - 50 / 4 / 3 / 34
Stats in order: Offensive Snaps / Targets / Receptions / Yards
Week 13, @ Tampa Bay
Olave - 41 / 6 / 4 / 65
Shaheed - 36 / 4 / 4 / 75
Week 15, ATLANTA
Olave - 27 / 4 / 3 / 53
Shaheed - 39 / 4 / 3 / 95 (1 TD)
Week 16, @ Cleveland (This was a snow-and-wind game, six degrees F outside. Saints only attempted 15 passes)
Olave - DNP - Hamstring
Shaheed - 23 / 5 / 4 / 41
Week 17, @ Philadelphia
Olave - 42 / 5 / 4 / 42
Shaheed - 36 / 4 / 4 / 75
Week 18, CAROLINA
Olave - 36 / 12 / 5 / 60 (1 TD)
Shaheed - 50 / 4 / 3 / 34
MAC_32
Footballguy
When dumpster diving for WR I'm looking for a guy on a not bottom 10 offense that is one injury/ineffectiveness away from 1K+ or 8-10+ TD. The difference between 800/4 and 600/5 types isn't much and by setting that as your goal you unintentionally end up chasing. I don't even care if it's 1K+ or 8-10 TD over a full season so long as that's their second half trajectory. Ultimately, if I'm picking one of these guys I don't intend to use them before sometime in October anyway.
Are there any of those types that can be found outside of pick 120 that does NOT need something to happen in front of them on the depth chart to get on that path? That's the sorta priority I'd target this time of year. I don't think Shaheed fits because of Michael Thomas and Dennis Allen, but the argument is compelling.
Are there any of those types that can be found outside of pick 120 that does NOT need something to happen in front of them on the depth chart to get on that path? That's the sorta priority I'd target this time of year. I don't think Shaheed fits because of Michael Thomas and Dennis Allen, but the argument is compelling.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Based on what exactly?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Stats surely aren't everything especially in such a small sample size which render them practically meaningless. You're literally basing your analysis on four games (where Olave was most likely getting the CB1 while Shaeed was seeing a slot corner).
Of course it's possible that an UDFA passes a high first round pick on the depth chart, but in the case where that first round pick is coming off a very successful rookie season, the odds are pretty long.
Doug B
Footballguy
Thinking ahead a bit when I wrote that. Not for Week 1 in September 2023.
Based on eye test more than anything. Also reports of his maturity and seriousness about perfecting his craft. The team backing him off of special teams duties. And, as above, his usage when lined up across from Olave in actual games and was still learning the system -- small sample size and all.
Not exactly something of which I really hope to convince others, I fully admit. If I'm right, it was a lucky dart throw based on not much. If I'm wrong, I'm an idiot
I'll add these reads for anyone seeking a deeper dive into Shaheed. The first piece gives both scouting pros and cons, and a fair reader could come away less impressed than me regarding Shaheed's eventual level in the NFL.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
I’m not confident it’s not a bottom 10 offense but I’m also not confident Michael Wilson isn’t the cards’ WR1 by season’s end if he’s healthy
There’s definitely “Marquez Callaway that one year he was the saints WR1 technically but scored like 80 fantasy points” downside but he’s a significantly more compelling prospect
There’s definitely “Marquez Callaway that one year he was the saints WR1 technically but scored like 80 fantasy points” downside but he’s a significantly more compelling prospect
Doug B
Footballguy
Oof. I was bullish on him, too.
Ended up being a broke man's Kenny Golladay -- productive with an elite QB, but nowhere near good enough to help elevate a subpar QB.
Doug B
Footballguy
… and Rashid Shaheed will miss the entire preseason with a groin injury (my speculation). Same thing happened to him last preseason. If he can’t stay healthy during prime development time, it’s going to be hard for Shaheed to reach his potential.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
I like Hodgins. He passed the eye test for me last year. I was impressed with his play down the stretch and believe he provides excellent value deeper in drafts this season. I'm a buyer.
Hugsy_Malone
Footballguy
I think Jalin Hyatt stole all the thunder at camp. You've got Slayton, Waller, Campbell, and Hodgins as your starters in eleven personnel. Will the Giants throw enough and unleash Jones enough to make that all worth it?
Doug B
Footballguy
Jebus. Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is just kneecapping these guys' careers. Sorry all.
Doug B
Footballguy
(An apparently out-cold Hulk Hogan starts wagging his finger ... )
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dude had 3 receptions. They just happened to be 50 yards each.
I'm reasonably sure Olave is still the WR1 in NOS.
Is this supposed to be a victory lap? Quoting my post from (checks notes) July?
Doug B
Footballguy
No, no ... far from a victory lap. Just noting that Shaheed is "still alive" for an eventual shot at the #1 WR slot in New Orleans. After it looked like "no chance" two weeks ago.
Truth be told, Chris Olave's apparent back-sliding -- though probably overblown -- plays into it, as well. Olave's still getting the targets right now.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I feel like Shaheed is NOS version of Darnell Mooney. He's a deep threat best ball type who doesn't command enough targets to be a WR1-2-3
Flex & a prayer for FF purposes. HUGE game (naturally against me in one league yesterday, though I should pull out the win). But he has some talent. He could eventually develop into more...but with a Kamara hoovering up targets, plus a healthy Thomas and Olave there I just don't see enough volume to go around for Shaheed to become a WR1 there.
