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Trent Richardson in 2013 (1 Viewer)

Chachi

Footballguy
What do people think of him in 2013?

With a new HC and Norv as the OC change. The schedule looked good on paper. Does he go from a mid/low RB1 to a top 5 back this year?

 
I'll play Devil's advocate and say good, probably better than a lot, but in the end disappointing relative to price paid.

I know everyone likes to say "look at Turner's track record with Smith, Lt, etc" but those same people ignore the comment of "look what he failed to do in so many other areas" and I'm not meaning Ryan Matthews.

The Chargers had more talent than the Browns do and they perenially underachieved.

Again, he is a great talent and will be very good but the perception on him is SO high right now that I think he can do nothing but disappoint.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Turner failed when he was a head coach. Much better as an OC.
That's a pretty hollow argument. If he was great as a HC and failed as an OC, we could say "ok, maybe his HC forced him to run a particular style of offense a particular way...perhaps he didn't have the authority to make a call.

But when you do something as an OC and fail as a HC, at best all that says is that you can't handle the additional responsibility. But as the HC, he should have, at any time, been able to say "I have the authority to say I want this done this way."

When you look at the people he has been successful with, they are HOF'ers on STACKED teams. We can speculate on whether TRICH is of the highest caliber, granted, but there is no one going to argue that the Browns are the 90's Cowboys or even have a glimmer of the talent the Chargers had when LT was there.

That is the difference. I don't think we are wise to assume that having one "name" back who is young and carries alot of promise necessarily translates into justifying the assumption. That assumption cause the price tag to go super high, which causes the rate of return to have to be super high. THAT is where I think people will be disappointed, relatively speaking.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
When you look at the people he has been successful with, they are HOF'ers on STACKED teams.
He got multiple monster years out of Terry Allen. He got a massive fantasy year out of Lamont Jordan. I don't think either of these two guys were even worthy of being in the upper half of starting RB's in the NFL those years.

He got multiple monster years out of Stephen Davis. He was good but certainly not remotely in the ballpark of a HOF type talent.

He spent two years with Ricky Williams. Best two years of Rickey's career.

He spent one year with Frank Gore. Gore broke out that year and had his best season ever, in fact he's not even come within 400 yards rushing of that year since plus it's the only time in his career he went for over 60 catches.

He got to Dallas afters Emmit's rookie year, when he ran for 937 yards. In the 3 years they spent together Emmit had 3 of 4 best seasons of his entire pro career.

LT had better years without Norv but to be fair Norv only had him as a rookie and than got him back during his declining phase, and still for the most part managed to get production out of him.

Mathews health held him back and even than he was #7 fantasy back in 2011 and the team production at RB that year was outstanding.

Only RB I've ever seen Norv fail was Sproles. He did not know how to properly use him, limited him to much.

There is no coach or OC I'd rather have coaching my fantasy RB than Norv Turner.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
When you look at the people he has been successful with, they are HOF'ers on STACKED teams.
He got multiple monster years out of Terry Allen. He got a massive fantasy year out of Lamont Jordan. I don't think either of these two guys were even worthy of being in the upper half of starting RB's in the NFL those years.

He got multiple monster years out of Stephen Davis. He was good but certainly not remotely in the ballpark of a HOF type talent.

He spent two years with Ricky Williams. Best two years of Rickey's career.

He spent one year with Frank Gore. Gore broke out that year and had his best season ever, in fact he's not even come within 400 yards rushing of that year since plus it's the only time in his career he went for over 60 catches.

He got to Dallas afters Emmit's rookie year, when he ran for 937 yards. In the 3 years they spent together Emmit had 3 of 4 best seasons of his entire pro career.

LT had better years without Norv but to be fair Norv only had him as a rookie and than got him back during his declining phase, and still for the most part managed to get production out of him.

Mathews health held him back and even than he was #7 fantasy back in 2011 and the team production at RB that year was outstanding.

Only RB I've ever seen Norv fail was Sproles. He did not know how to properly use him, limited him to much.

There is no coach or OC I'd rather have coaching my fantasy RB than Norv Turner.
There are one of two conditions that apply to every player you mentioned:

They are either once in a generation type players who also happened to play on teams dripping with talent

or

They were players playing on a TON of volume of attempts.

Look at these number of attempts for the guys you listed above: 332-356-338-337-383-392-312. Nobody not named AP or Foster is carrying the ball that much consistently anymore. And of all those guys, they ALL hovered around the 3.9-4.0 YPC mark in the years when they hit those numbers with Norv. Gore IS an exception. He did have an amazing year that year.

But all these other guys: Its not like Norv came in and made them super efficient...he simply made them super utilized. Well that is great...in 1998. The league doesn't do that anymore. And if they do, then all the football heads begin warning us of "over-utilization" and telling us to sell the RB anyway.

Add that to the fact that the Browns don't have a who's who of awesome players surrounding them and they likely aren't in a division where they are going to be dictating their offense to the defenses of the Steelers, Bengals, or Ravens on a consistent basis and I just don't buy it.

Again, two things: I'm not in any way saying Richardson won't be one of the better backs in fantasy but unless Norv can get the efficiency up to the Frank Gore year, he simply won't be able to run the ball enough to get the numbers a lot of people are dreaming of. And so, people will be disappointed relative to the price they will pay because for what it will take to acquire him, you are going to be expecting numbers like what Foster, Shady, and Rice have put up in 2011, but that is going to require 320+ carries. And that's given that he averages 4ypc. As great as people think of Richardson being already, he only averaged 3.6 ypc last year. He hasn't shown to be efficient like a MJD or someone. Is he likely to get that many touches in Cleveland week in and week out?

I think, realistically, Richardson's best real value in his current situation is more like Michael Turner when he first went to Atlanta. He can get those heavy numbers of TDs and he can be on a good, upcoming team that isn't necessarily surrounded by enough pieces to be great. He can get enough volume and hit a YPC that can make him very good like Turner was and be a top 9-14RB. But he's not going to be Mr. Everything in the league but the price on him IS everything and the kitchen sink. It is unrealistic.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
I can't help you if you refuse to look at the facts. He's the only guy to get strong production from guys like Terry Allen and Lamont Jordan and most of the actual good RB's he had enjoyed their best or best seasons with him.

That's just factual but go ahead and ignore it with this long winded drivel about volume.

Comparing Trent to a non pass catching option like Turner is absurd.

 

FUBAR

Footballguy
I can't help you if you refuse to look at the facts. He's the only guy to get strong production from guys like Terry Allen and Lamont Jordan and most of the actual good RB's he had enjoyed their best or best seasons with him.

That's just factual but go ahead and ignore it with this long winded drivel about volume.

Comparing Trent to a non pass catching option like Turner is absurd.
How does the Browns OLine compare to the lines he had with Allen and Jordan? Or the others?

 
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JustinHawkins

Footballguy
I'm not sure anyone saw the real Trent Richardson last year. I don't think he was ever fully healthy coming into camp, and then with the injuries during the year, we may have only seen him at 50 or 70% of his best. Scary thought for the future isn't it? I'm all in on him, and wouldn't be surprised with a top 2 finish. :drive:

 

menobrown

Footballguy
FUBAR said:
I can't help you if you refuse to look at the facts. He's the only guy to get strong production from guys like Terry Allen and Lamont Jordan and most of the actual good RB's he had enjoyed their best or best seasons with him.

That's just factual but go ahead and ignore it with this long winded drivel about volume.

Comparing Trent to a non pass catching option like Turner is absurd.
How does the Browns OLine compare to the lines he had with Allen and Jordan? Or the others?
I honestly don't know. Do you?

I can't answer your question but I can say this much:

1. Not the end or be all but best source I can find is PFF. Browns were graded as 5th best OL in the NFL last year, but 11th in run blocking.

2. The Chargers were 28 overall last year and 24th in RB. In 2011 not sure how they graded in RB but they were 26 overall so lets assume not that great. That year Mathews was RB7 in fantasy despite not being healthy and the overall RB production, from a fantasy standpoint, was strong.

3. Running is not the only way RB's score points in fantasy football and it's not even my favorite method. His backs catch passes and a pass catching back tends to be match-up proof. We've seen Mathews catch 90 balls in 26 games and that's without playing a lot of third downs. Gore had his only 60 catch season in their one year together. Ricky caught 97 passes in their two seasons.

No RB ever made me appreciate PPR for RB's and show me how matchup proof they were than Lamont Jordan in his year with Norv. I know that line was not that great and Lamont stunk as a runner, he may have averaged 3.8 a carry but he stunk. But he caught 70 balls in 14 games and was flirted with being a top 5 RB all years and in 14 games he might have only had one single digit fantasy output. Matchup proof.

So he's shown a knack for getting the ball to his RB's in space even if they have OL issues, which I don't think they do in Cleveland and one of the best features of Trent's game is what he brings you as a receiver.

4. Without knowing the details of how the OL play was graded out for his RB's the telling item is that most of his RB's enjoyed their finest seasons with him.

If I'm making a check list of what I'd like to see out of an OC or HC for my RB it would be: tendency to rely on bell cow and not RBBC, throw to the RB's, have a history of big time production from your RB's. Norv fits all that criteria. The only times he's had to go RBBC was when his lead back could not stay healthy or was very subpar.

One last thing for those who want to use Trent's low YPC against him. Even if we ignore the fact he missed most of training camp and started the year on a less than 100% knee, suffered a rib injury he played with all year on a team with a rookie QB and limited weapons he still had the same YPC as LT in his rookie year and not far off from Emmit's rookie year. That's a weak argument to rely on IMO.

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
strongly considering him with my #5 overall pick in redraft after ADP, Foster and Calvin are gone
I have a feeling he'll become the trendy pick for RB3 come August, which means he won't be available at 5 in most leagues.
maybe, depends on everyones flavor. The top3 picks are some combo of ADP Foster and Calvin in most re-drafts

Im guessin the next tier includes

TRich

RRice

McCoy

Martin

Spiller

any of them can be the next pick, OR even Brees/Rodgers

 

Chachi

Footballguy
strongly considering him with my #5 overall pick in redraft after ADP, Foster and Calvin are gone
I have a feeling he'll become the trendy pick for RB3 come August, which means he won't be available at 5 in most leagues.
maybe, depends on everyones flavor. The top3 picks are some combo of ADP Foster and Calvin in most re-drafts Im guessin the next tier includes TRichRRiceMcCoyMartinSpiller any of them can be the next pick, OR even Brees/Rodgers
Spiller is going that high now? I would think he is at least one tier lower. Is Jackson still in Buffalo?
 

wodahSShadow

Footballguy
strongly considering him with my #5 overall pick in redraft after ADP, Foster and Calvin are gone
I have a feeling he'll become the trendy pick for RB3 come August, which means he won't be available at 5 in most leagues.
maybe, depends on everyones flavor. The top3 picks are some combo of ADP Foster and Calvin in most re-drafts Im guessin the next tier includes TRichRRiceMcCoyMartinSpiller any of them can be the next pick, OR even Brees/Rodgers
Spiller is going that high now? I would think he is at least one tier lower. Is Jackson still in Buffalo?
My thoughts exactly. Agree with everything else though.

 

maxhyde

Footballguy
Norv will find ways to get Richardson the ball plenty to make plays. Until he became OC in CLE I was definitely drafting Martin before TRich like last year. Now I am not so sure.

Not too many RB's have had worse years after he became OC/HC so I think the upside favors TRich this year.

After Peterson and Foster I like Charles with Reid in KC then likely TRich/Martin. No solid backup options behind those guys and both teams want to play solid D and smash-mouth O

 

wodahSShadow

Footballguy
OT, but where would Charles fit in the mix? -- is he in Trich's Tier/Tier 1? I'm pretty bullish on him. Does not have the wear of some of the other backs (Foster, and to a lesser extent AP), has no one competing for carries (Spiller, Rice, Mccoy?), an experienced, efficient QB (Trich) and is almost guaranteed 50+ receptions with Reid coming to town (not that the other backs don't catch that many, but up until this point Charles has not while still producing good numbers).

 
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ghostguy123

Footballguy
FUBAR said:
I can't help you if you refuse to look at the facts. He's the only guy to get strong production from guys like Terry Allen and Lamont Jordan and most of the actual good RB's he had enjoyed their best or best seasons with him.

That's just factual but go ahead and ignore it with this long winded drivel about volume.

Comparing Trent to a non pass catching option like Turner is absurd.
How does the Browns OLine compare to the lines he had with Allen and Jordan? Or the others?
I am not sure how it compares, but the Browns have a pretty good offensive line. Both tackles are probowlers, and Mack at center is also a probowler. Also SOME possibility of trading way down in the first and taking a guard.

Also, I realize T-Rich only averaged 3.6 YPC last year, but he did have MANY 3rd and short type of carries, and goaline carries. Also, he was never fully healthy at any point last year. He didn't even take part in training camp because of the knee scope. I think his 3.6 YPC doesn't really do him justice for last year if you want to just look at stats. He certainly showed he is a baller. And the current coaching staff is easily better than what we had last year. My god, Shurmur is the dumbest human ever.

I would be surprised if he doesn't average 4.5 or more this year if he manages to stay relatively healthy with no major setbacks like last year.

 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
strongly considering him with my #5 overall pick in redraft after ADP, Foster and Calvin are gone
I have a feeling he'll become the trendy pick for RB3 come August, which means he won't be available at 5 in most leagues.
maybe, depends on everyones flavor. The top3 picks are some combo of ADP Foster and Calvin in most re-drafts Im guessin the next tier includes TRichRRiceMcCoyMartinSpiller any of them can be the next pick, OR even Brees/Rodgers
Spiller is going that high now? I would think he is at least one tier lower. Is Jackson still in Buffalo?
why would anyone be worried about a 32 year old journeyman that cant stay healthy?

I see spiller having just as much of a chance as Trent as being a top5 RB

 

Bri

Footballguy
I can't help you if you refuse to look at the facts. He's the only guy to get strong production from guys like Terry Allen and Lamont Jordan and most of the actual good RB's he had enjoyed their best or best seasons with him.

That's just factual but go ahead and ignore it with this long winded drivel about volume.

Comparing Trent to a non pass catching option like Turner is absurd.
How does the Browns OLine compare to the lines he had with Allen and Jordan? Or the others?
I am not sure how it compares, but the Browns have a pretty good offensive line. Both tackles are probowlers, and Mack at center is also a probowler. Also SOME possibility of trading way down in the first and taking a guard.

Also, I realize T-Rich only averaged 3.6 YPC last year, but he did have MANY 3rd and short type of carries, and goaline carries. Also, he was never fully healthy at any point last year. He didn't even take part in training camp because of the knee scope. I think his 3.6 YPC doesn't really do him justice for last year if you want to just look at stats. He certainly showed he is a baller. And the current coaching staff is easily better than what we had last year. My god, Shurmur is the dumbest human ever.

I would be surprised if he doesn't average 4.5 or more this year if he manages to stay relatively healthy with no major setbacks like last year.
The average isn't going to increase too too much if the number of good situations/opportunities doesn't increase.

Switching which WR they believe in and which QB they believe in has wrecked the development and continuity of this team.

3rd and one where you swear there's 15 guys on D and there's no way they throw to the WRs who each dropped the ball 100 times this game is a pretty bad spot.

You have almost a full yard increase and that's very difficult for a sled dog to achieve.

If their young QB and WRs step up this can easily become an offense that's difficult to stop. I have more faith in the Browns running him into the ground though and us being impressed by his ability to run through a brick wall.

 

Bri

Footballguy
Turner failed when he was a head coach. Much better as an OC.
(Not necessarily a reply to you, sentiment throughout the thread)

Most NFL HCs manage while OCs coach.

There's far less coaching to be an NFL coach than people seem to fully grasp; and it is difficult to understand.

Turner is a fine coach, but a poor manager.

This is not to say Turner is Paul Brown and can succeed making any player into a great player like a magician. The Browns are still the Browns. They have shown considerable improvement at some positions. They are sorely lacking at others though. Most of all they lack confidence and are not efficient at all. I believe there isn't too much teaching that needs to be done with their run game, yet their passing game is horribly disorganized and undisciplined. Further, I think fixing the passing game cures everything in Cleveland and so I'm not sure if Turner is the right man for the job there. It's possible and we'll see. I just don't think improved run game coaching (Turner's forte) can impact the running game as positively as an improved passing game would.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Bri said:
Turner failed when he was a head coach. Much better as an OC.
(Not necessarily a reply to you, sentiment throughout the thread)

Most NFL HCs manage while OCs coach.

There's far less coaching to be an NFL coach than people seem to fully grasp; and it is difficult to understand.

Turner is a fine coach, but a poor manager.

This is not to say Turner is Paul Brown and can succeed making any player into a great player like a magician. The Browns are still the Browns. They have shown considerable improvement at some positions. They are sorely lacking at others though. Most of all they lack confidence and are not efficient at all. I believe there isn't too much teaching that needs to be done with their run game, yet their passing game is horribly disorganized and undisciplined. Further, I think fixing the passing game cures everything in Cleveland and so I'm not sure if Turner is the right man for the job there. It's possible and we'll see. I just don't think improved run game coaching (Turner's forte) can impact the running game as positively as an improved passing game would.
Nothing could be worse from a coaching perspective than what the Browns had the past two seasons. Shurmur really SHOULD go down as the worst head coach ever, and he was also calling the plays which was incredibly stupid for any 1st time head coach, let alone someone with his lack of ability to make any quick decisions or adjustments.

So not only was the coach inexperienced and a moron, we had a rookie QB, RB, RT, WR-1, a 2nd year WR-2 who had limited college playing time at WR, and a rookie WR-3.

Add to that Richardson was injured all year right from the start.

I am talking about a HEALTHY Richardson, and at LEAST a slightly better coaching staff, along with those other players I mentioned all have an extra year under their belt.

I think there will be enough improvement with the other players, the coaches, and Richardson's health to think it's very reasonable he could improve his YPC from 3.6 to 4.5.

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
there is no doubt that Norv Turner will maximize RB production from the Browns' offense..Richardson *should* be in line for a monster year, but it's wise to temper expectations based on a few things:

Richardson avg'd 3.6 ypc last season. Even with Norv Turner, it's hard to imagine Richardson moving up to,say, 4.5 ypc..

AFC North is full of good defenses..Richardson had 101 carries for 383 yards ( 3.79ypc), and 3 rush TDs vs the division last year..

opposing defenses stacked the line to stop the run ,forcing Weeden to throw..that trend is likely to continue..

Richardson tends to get dinged up quite a bit..

Norv will no doubt work his magic, but I'm more inclined to let someone else take Richardson as a top pick, as there is simply too much risk involved..

 

Evil G

Footballguy
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.

It is the Browns. Wait. Let me repeat that. The Browns. Have you ongoing familiarity with this organization?

Guys want to imagine 350 for 1600 and 12 plus 60 for 600 and 4. I would love to imagine it too, but I don't think so.

They have an average QB at best, young raw WRs (Gordon, Little, Nelson), and an average line, supporting an average offense.

Trent will be the big thing inside all that youth and mediocrity, I agree. But I think realistically he caps somewere around:

300 for 1200 and 8 plus 40 for 300 and 2.

If I am right, that's really good stuff. But it's not insane. His value is partially projected on his talent and youth and partially on misplaced hope, implausible optimism and the endowment effect on his owner psyches.

 

3nOut

Footballguy
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.

It is the Browns. Wait. Let me repeat that. The Browns. Have you ongoing familiarity with this organization?

Guys want to imagine 350 for 1600 and 12 plus 60 for 600 and 4. I would love to imagine it too, but I don't think so.

They have an average QB at best, young raw WRs (Gordon, Little, Nelson), and an average line, supporting an average offense.

Trent will be the big thing inside all that youth and mediocrity, I agree. But I think realistically he caps somewere around:

300 for 1200 and 8 plus 40 for 300 and 2.

If I am right, that's really good stuff. But it's not insane. His value is partially projected on his talent and youth and partially on misplaced hope, implausible optimism and the endowment effect on his owner psyches.
Are you talking about the Viking's Peterson here or the Jaguar's MJD? Or maybe the Bear's Forte to a lesser extent?

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.

It is the Browns. Wait. Let me repeat that. The Browns. Have you ongoing familiarity with this organization?

Guys want to imagine 350 for 1600 and 12 plus 60 for 600 and 4. I would love to imagine it too, but I don't think so.

They have an average QB at best, young raw WRs (Gordon, Little, Nelson), and an average line, supporting an average offense.

Trent will be the big thing inside all that youth and mediocrity, I agree. But I think realistically he caps somewere around:

300 for 1200 and 8 plus 40 for 300 and 2.

If I am right, that's really good stuff. But it's not insane. His value is partially projected on his talent and youth and partially on misplaced hope, implausible optimism and the endowment effect on his owner psyches.
Be that as it may, that's 340 touches, 1500 yards, and 10 TDs. I'll take that kind of production from a RB in round 1 of all my fantasy drafts. Those kind of workhorses, even with a potentially lower YPC than the top tier, are very uncommon in today's NFL.

 

Evil G

Footballguy
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.
Be that as it may, that's 340 touches, 1500 yards, and 10 TDs. I'll take that kind of production from a RB in round 1 of all my fantasy drafts. Those kind of workhorses, even with a potentially lower YPC than the top tier, are very uncommon in today's NFL.
In a ReDraft for 2013, I take Foster and Peterson in front of him. Maybe Charles too in PPR, who, unlike Trent, I think really is in line for a monster, over-the-top-blow-em-up year Not like I'm saying Trent isn't an early first round pick. He just isn't the demi-god that some are spouting, I figure.

He's young and various Dynasty owners are frothing for something I don't think happens.

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
Evil G - I think you're misinterpreting what people are saying when they expect big things.

Nobody's expecting him to have a year like AP did last year (I don't think).

Myself, I'm expecting a top 3-5 year out of him.

 
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fightingillini

Footballguy
strongly considering him with my #5 overall pick in redraft after ADP, Foster and Calvin are gone
I have a feeling he'll become the trendy pick for RB3 come August, which means he won't be available at 5 in most leagues.
maybe, depends on everyones flavor. The top3 picks are some combo of ADP Foster and Calvin in most re-drafts Im guessin the next tier includes TRichRRiceMcCoyMartinSpiller any of them can be the next pick, OR even Brees/Rodgers
Spiller is going that high now? I would think he is at least one tier lower. Is Jackson still in Buffalo?
why would anyone be worried about a 32 year old journeyman that cant stay healthy?

I see spiller having just as much of a chance as Trent as being a top5 RB
By the way, Spiller was a top 10 back last year and only touched the ball about 250 times. No reason why Spiller can't be a top 10 back again, even if Fred is around to take 200-250 touches.

Spiller is easily a top 12 pick in a non PPR league, and a top 10 pick in PPR.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
What's not to like about Trent Richardson?

Focal point of offense - check.

Talented runner - check.

Good receiver out of the backfield - check.

Can punch it in near the goalline - check.

Can play banged up - check.

You can bank on 300 carries, 50 receptions, and 10-12 TDs. Total yardage, I would say about 1650. Easily a top 5-6 selection in most drafts. Only guys that I would absolutely take ahead of him are Peterson, Foster, and Calvin (PPR league).

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
there is no doubt that Norv Turner will maximize RB production from the Browns' offense..Richardson *should* be in line for a monster year, but it's wise to temper expectations based on a few things:

Richardson avg'd 3.6 ypc last season. Even with Norv Turner, it's hard to imagine Richardson moving up to,say, 4.5 ypc..

AFC North is full of good defenses..Richardson had 101 carries for 383 yards ( 3.79ypc), and 3 rush TDs vs the division last year..

opposing defenses stacked the line to stop the run ,forcing Weeden to throw..that trend is likely to continue..

Richardson tends to get dinged up quite a bit..

Norv will no doubt work his magic, but I'm more inclined to let someone else take Richardson as a top pick, as there is simply too much risk involved..
The AFC North defenses aren't that good anymore. PIT is overrated, lost Harrison and Paolumalu can never stay healthy. BAL just lost Lewis and Ed Reed.

You saw what Richardson did when defenses stacked the line last year. He finished in the top 10. He easily has top 5 upside.

Do you think Martin is less risky than Richardson? Remember that a good chunk of Martin's production came in 3 huge games. Do you think Rice is less risky? He probably is, but you have no idea how many carries Bernard Pierce will take from Rice (and Pierce looks good). Would you take Charles that high? Do you think Spiller can do it again if he only gets 250 touches again? Taking a QB instead?

What I am saying is that I am not sure who else you're going to select that is less risky than Richardson but posseses the upside that he has.

 

ShaHBucks

Footballguy
Head Coach is from Carolina's 8-headed monster. Lewis and Hardesty are not that great but I'm watching who they grab in the draft or undrafted. T-Rich value can take a real hit if his workload is cut into.

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
Head Coach is from Carolina's 8-headed monster. Lewis and Hardesty are not that great but I'm watching who they grab in the draft or undrafted. T-Rich value can take a real hit if his workload is cut into.
Yes, but the OC is Norv turner, I expect Chud to let Turner run his O

 

bicycle_seat_sniffer

Smells like chicken
and I love how some of you guys are doubting Spiller, makes me think he might slide to the bottom of round1 in leagues.

Best value out there then, He is everything TRich is and he can take it to the house on any given play. which is what Trich lacks IMO. Hopefully the new coach in Buff is smarter than Chan Gailey.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Evil G said:
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.

It is the Browns. Wait. Let me repeat that. The Browns. Have you ongoing familiarity with this organization?

Guys want to imagine 350 for 1600 and 12 plus 60 for 600 and 4. I would love to imagine it too, but I don't think so.

They have an average QB at best, young raw WRs (Gordon, Little, Nelson), and an average line, supporting an average offense.

Trent will be the big thing inside all that youth and mediocrity, I agree. But I think realistically he caps somewere around:

300 for 1200 and 8 plus 40 for 300 and 2.

If I am right, that's really good stuff. But it's not insane. His value is partially projected on his talent and youth and partially on misplaced hope, implausible optimism and the endowment effect on his owner psyches.
I don't expect a MONSTER SUPER year, but a very very nice year, top 5 RB would be very reasonable.

But I am not sure how you can call other people out for not having ongoing familiarity with the Brown's organization, yet not know they have a very solid offensive line. Joe Thomas is a stud probowler every year of his career till he retires. Alex Mack is a probowl center and will be many times. And Swartz at RT was graded the TOP rookie tackle from last year's draft class, and is on his way to some probowls also.

We need better guards, which is widely knows to people that follow the team, but there is no way anyone can say our line is "average".

In fact if they do end up trading down and taking one of the good guards, our line could be at or near the top REAL soon.

 

(HULK)

(Smash)
A couple of people have said that Cleveland's o-line is mediocre. I thought they were supposed to be a very decent line?

 

Shutout

Footballguy
The more I read this the more it seems familiar to SJAX in the early days; people salivating over this big back that can do it all, wanting to connect dots so bad and always forgetting that the Rams, as a team, simply were not good enough to justify this many opportunities. Sure, the talent was obviously there, but people just tended to put too much emphasis on that side and ignore the rest. So, year after year, SJAX got drafted as a top 5 overall and year after year, he would put up top 12-ish numbers that would "satisfy" people but in all honesty was never worth the true price of taking the player as a top 5 overall.

I think Richardson will fall into this category. You take him and you won't be crying about a disappointment, but when you hear people saying "I might take ADP and Foster and Martin over him, but that's it" or something similar, then I think you're not getting the max benefit of the pick. All day long and without blinking I would take Calvin and, in a ppr, Charles and McCoy over him.

The Rbs can certainly be argued, I'll give that, but as far as taking a player at #4 or #5 and KNOWING that I will get my investment back and with interest, its Calvin when you start talking about the price you need to pay. Otherwise, I trade Down just a smidge and then pick Richardson and I feel a lot better about it at that point.

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
A couple of people have said that Cleveland's o-line is mediocre. I thought they were supposed to be a very decent line?
They are, ask any Cleveland fan who watches the actual games. Weeden had all day to throw last year, just wasnt all that great, which wasnt helped out by the most inexperienced WR group ever.

Richardson also missed a ton of holes and opportunities for big plays, some of which I call rookie mistakes, some of which I call lack of burst from his injuries.

I hate making excuses for players, but with the Browns these are more like REASONS.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
The more I read this the more it seems familiar to SJAX in the early days; people salivating over this big back that can do it all, wanting to connect dots so bad and always forgetting that the Rams, as a team, simply were not good enough to justify this many opportunities. Sure, the talent was obviously there, but people just tended to put too much emphasis on that side and ignore the rest. So, year after year, SJAX got drafted as a top 5 overall and year after year, he would put up top 12-ish numbers that would "satisfy" people but in all honesty was never worth the true price of taking the player as a top 5 overall.

I think Richardson will fall into this category. You take him and you won't be crying about a disappointment, but when you hear people saying "I might take ADP and Foster and Martin over him, but that's it" or something similar, then I think you're not getting the max benefit of the pick. All day long and without blinking I would take Calvin and, in a ppr, Charles and McCoy over him.

The Rbs can certainly be argued, I'll give that, but as far as taking a player at #4 or #5 and KNOWING that I will get my investment back and with interest, its Calvin when you start talking about the price you need to pay. Otherwise, I trade Down just a smidge and then pick Richardson and I feel a lot better about it at that point.
Remember that Richardson finished RB9 last year even with a 3.6 YPC. That has nowhere to go but up. With his reception ability and ability to score 10+ TDs, he's a fairly safe pick in the middle of the 1st round. And Jackson NEVER scored as many times in one season as Richardson did, so while I see how you can compare, it's obvious that Richardson gets more reps by the goalline and shown to be able to punch it in.

That said, I agree I would pass on Richardson for Calvin all day, in any format. Not sure about Charles and McCoy. If KC begins to use Charles in the passing game again, then you could make that argument. If McCoy is going to get the bulk of the load in PHI (I worry about Bryce Brown eating into McCoy's production), then McCoy could be a better choice than Richardson. But in reality, there are 4 backs were you KNOW they are going to be the true bellcow.......ADP, Foster, Martin and Richardson. Rice would be there but I see Pierce getting more reps this year, making Rice a good solid RB1 but not the elite one in the past few years.

Once you get past Peterson, Foster and Calvin, the next 6 picks are pretty close.

 

menobrown

Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
and I love how some of you guys are doubting Spiller, makes me think he might slide to the bottom of round1 in leagues.

Best value out there then, He is everything TRich is and he can take it to the house on any given play. which is what Trich lacks IMO. Hopefully the new coach in Buff is smarter than Chan Gailey.
Can't a guy love them both? Dynasty wise they are my #1 and #3 RB's. For next season right now I've got Richardson right inside the top 5 and but Spiller in the RB5-7 range.

I'm actually a little puzzled that some people are having such a hard time envisioning Richardson not having a big year. I mean last year with all of his ailments he was RB8, RB7 in average FPG. He so much as improves one fantasy point per game over last year and that would have bumped him up to RB4 based on last years RB's so it's not as if people banking on him need some wild jump in production.

I thought Spiller was the second most impressive runner in the league last year, behind ADP, but the best combo runner/receiver. He's as close to Marshall Faulk as I've seen. But Fred still lingers and the QB is likely to be suspect at best so there are some concerns. He's also can't do everything Trent can do. He does some things better but he's not as impressive a power runner or has the nose for the end zone that Trent possesses.

 

Evil G

Footballguy
ghostguy123, on 25 Apr 2013 - 03:23, said:

Evil G said:
Evil G, on 24 Apr 2013 - 15:44, said:It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.
I don't expect a MONSTER SUPER year, but a very very nice year, top 5 RB would be very reasonable.We need better guards, which is widely knows to people that follow the team, but there is no way anyone can say our line is "average". In fact if they do end up trading down and taking one of the good guards, our line could be at or near the top REAL soon.
In laying out some sarcasm for the Browns and extolling the 'average-ness' of their line, perhaps I misspoke. I am not an expert on the offensive line play in professional football. But I am a guy that goes a long way to see the Browns play, twice a year, on average, and I watch their games often.And to state the most brutally obvious, they have wallowed in mediocrity and inconsistency for as long as they been in Cleveland (2nd incarnation).To presume that Trent will be affected by this trend is not exactly a quantum leap. Trent is a sure fire, can't miss mid-first rounder. I admit that. I am rather being critical of a certain perspective out there that imagines wayyyyy more for Trent. Words like 'monster' or 'untouchable' after 2013.I don't think this hope for Trent is on the mark, and I am saying it. For a Canadian guy that has no real 'home team', but yet has a soft spot in his heart for the Browns, I hope I am wrong.
 
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jurb26

Footballguy
Evil G said:
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.
I don't expect a MONSTER SUPER year, but a very very nice year, top 5 RB would be very reasonable.

We need better guards, which is widely knows to people that follow the team, but there is no way anyone can say our line is "average".

In fact if they do end up trading down and taking one of the good guards, our line could be at or near the top REAL soon.
In laying out some sarcasm for the Browns and extolling the 'average-ness' of their line, perhaps I misspoke.

I am not an expert on the offensive line play in professional football.

But I am a guy that goes a long way to see the Browns play, twice a year, on average, and I watch their games often.

And to state the most brutally obvious, they have wallowed in medicority and inconsistency for as long as they been in Cleveland (2nd incarnation).

To presume that Trent will be affected by this trend is not exactly a quantum leap. Trent is a sure fire, can't miss mid-first rounder. I admit that. I am rather being critical of a certain perspective out there that imagines wayyyyy more for Trent. Words like 'monster' or 'untouchable' after 2013.

I don't think this hope for Trent is on the mark, and I am saying it. For a Canadian guy that has no real 'home team', but yet has a soft spot in his heart for the Browns, I hope I am wrong.
The Clev Oline has been underrated for some time, IMO. The Oline, it's personal and ability, are limited largly by the lack of respectable players at QB, WR and TE. From the games I saw, teams loaded up to stop Richardson and the Clev running game. That won't change until Weeden and the passing attack improve, significantly. The good news is that group was young and inexperienced. Improvement should be expected. The real question is to what degree?

 

ghostguy123

Footballguy
Evil G said:
It seems absurd to me that certain persons continue to project a super-monster 2013 for Trent.
I don't expect a MONSTER SUPER year, but a very very nice year, top 5 RB would be very reasonable.

We need better guards, which is widely knows to people that follow the team, but there is no way anyone can say our line is "average".

In fact if they do end up trading down and taking one of the good guards, our line could be at or near the top REAL soon.
In laying out some sarcasm for the Browns and extolling the 'average-ness' of their line, perhaps I misspoke.

I am not an expert on the offensive line play in professional football.

But I am a guy that goes a long way to see the Browns play, twice a year, on average, and I watch their games often.

And to state the most brutally obvious, they have wallowed in medicority and inconsistency for as long as they been in Cleveland (2nd incarnation).

To presume that Trent will be affected by this trend is not exactly a quantum leap. Trent is a sure fire, can't miss mid-first rounder. I admit that. I am rather being critical of a certain perspective out there that imagines wayyyyy more for Trent. Words like 'monster' or 'untouchable' after 2013.

I don't think this hope for Trent is on the mark, and I am saying it. For a Canadian guy that has no real 'home team', but yet has a soft spot in his heart for the Browns, I hope I am wrong.
The Clev Oline has been underrated for some time, IMO. The Oline, it's personal and ability, are limited largly by the lack of respectable players at QB, WR and TE. From the games I saw, teams loaded up to stop Richardson and the Clev running game. That won't change until Weeden and the passing attack improve, significantly. The good news is that group was young and inexperienced. Improvement should be expected. The real question is to what degree?
Gordon is turning into an excellent player. Little also played well the 2nd half of last year with maybe ONE drop, very good improvement.

Talk of them trading for Bess who is a hell of a slot man, and they got Nelson who is certainly respectable.

Weeden was a rookie. With Marginal improvement by him, plus some by the WRs and Cameron who was looking better, that little bit from each of those guys could improve the offense quite a bit

And Richardson scored well last year despite a lot of adversity and injury.

 

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