Trent Richardson's ADP (1 Viewer)

[pwakefield77]

I just want to thank the media for every time they attached the phrase "best talent since adrian peterson" to any trent richardson mention this offseason. How in the world did i get Adrian peterson in the early 4th round in 2007 in redraft leagues and Richardson is being drafted at the end of round one beginning of round two? My question today is WHERE does Richardson really deserve to be drafted in redraft leagues all things considered. What kind of numbers can we expect from Richardson. here's a few things that are working in his favor

1. he's the best player on the browns roster

2a) he's gonna get the ball 20+ times a game.

2b) he's a 3 down back

3. he's working behind i'd say an offensive line that's right in the middle of the pack in the nfl

4. he's a special talent

i'd like to hear where you guys think trent richardson should be drafted. does he truly deserve to be drafted at the end of 1 beginning of 2 in redraft leagues.

let's not get mark ingram'd this year! ohhhh! that was a little kidney shot for all us ingram fans from last year. i was one of the biggest ingram fans.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I took him at the 1.15 in SSL4. 6th/7th RB off the board. Bell cow IMO

 

[pwakefield77]

Ministry, i'm tempted to put him 7th. the reason i'm so interested in his ADP is cause i draft 9th in my redraft league. i'm targeting one of the top 6 rbs on the board. foster, rice, mccoy, mjd, chris johnson, ryan mathews, and i'm tempted to put richardson 7th.

 

[cheese]

I agree with everything you posted and I think he belongs in the 11-14 range in a standard league.

The biggest factors against him are the division and the probability that the offense rarely scores.

I don't see a lot of similarities to the Ingram situation. Ingram was a talented player among many talented players and the Saints chose other ways to score. Richardson is a STUD among an offense with no real weapons besides himself. The Browns offense may limit his ceiling some, but he doesn't carry any of the workload risk that Ingram did.

 

[gandalas]

I took him at the 1.15 in SSL4. 6th/7th RB off the board. Bell cow IMO

I managed to hook him at 2.9 in the SSL3 league (16-team league) as the 8th or 9th RB taken. I am a cleveland fan, so I am obviously over-optimistic, but he could certainly live up to that draft slot.

 

[DoubleG]

I took him at the 1.15 in SSL4. 6th/7th RB off the board. Bell cow IMO

This. How many RBs in the NFL are 3-down, non RBBC, focal points of their respective team's offense?Not many. Richardson should be going as a top 10 RB - easily.

 

[pwakefield77]

I agree with everything you posted and I think he belongs in the 11-14 range in a standard league. The biggest factors against him are the division and the probability that the offense rarely scores. I don't see a lot of similarities to the Ingram situation. Ingram was a talented player among many talented players and the Saints chose other ways to score. Richardson is a STUD among an offense with no real weapons besides himself. The Browns offense may limit his ceiling some, but he doesn't carry any of the workload risk that Ingram did.

 

[pwakefield77]

good point cheese - this offense if awful

 

[FreeBaGeL]

While most people had Peterson labeled as the next big thing, most still believed he would share time in his first year prior to really taking over (which he basically did). Richardson looks much more likely to be 'the guy' from day 1 as he doesn't have an incumbent coming off a good season to compete with like Peterson did. Since redraft leagues only care about how good a player is going to be that year and give no weight to whether the guy will eventually be considered a hall of famer or even the best running back of all-time, it's no surprise that their redraft ADP's are quite different.

I don't see a problem with Richardson going on the round 1-2 turn. In today's NFL a talented guy who's in line to get the majority of the caries on a team with a solid O-line has a lot of value, even if he <insert lame reference to him not having stepped on an NFL field before, here>.

 

[pwakefield77]

While most people had Peterson labeled as the next big thing, most still believed he would share time in his first year prior to really taking over (which he basically did). Richardson looks much more likely to be 'the guy' from day 1 as he doesn't have an incumbent coming off a good season to compete with like Peterson did. Since redraft leagues only care about how good a player is going to be that year and give no weight to whether the guy will eventually be considered a hall of famer or even the best running back of all-time, it's no surprise that their redraft ADP's are quite different.I don't see a problem with Richardson going on the round 1-2 turn. In today's NFL a talented guy who's in line to get the majority of the caries on a team with a solid O-line has a lot of value, even if he <insert lame reference to him not having stepped on an NFL field before, here>.

 

[pwakefield77]

i'll drink to that FreeBaGel

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Richardson being the Browns' 3 down back means he'll be on the field for just that: 3 downs. Unless Weeden makes the passing attack at least somewhat respectable he'll be the primary back in a 3-and-out offense...

 

[pwakefield77]

frankbot good point. what kind of numbers do you see for trich in that anemic offense?

 

[Tchula]

I think he is too risky to take in the late first or early second of a redraft. You can lose your season if he plays like he's on the Browns.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I just want to thank the media for every time they attached the phrase "best talent since adrian peterson" to any trent richardson mention this offseason. How in the world did i get Adrian peterson in the early 4th round in 2007 in redraft leagues and Richardson is being drafted at the end of round one beginning of round two? My question today is WHERE does Richardson really deserve to be drafted in redraft leagues all things considered. What kind of numbers can we expect from Richardson. here's a few things that are working in his favor

1. he's the best player on the browns roster

2a) he's gonna get the ball 20+ times a game.

2b) he's a 3 down back

3. he's working behind i'd say an offensive line that's right in the middle of the pack in the nfl

4. he's a special talent

i'd like to hear where you guys think trent richardson should be drafted. does he truly deserve to be drafted at the end of 1 beginning of 2 in redraft leagues.

let's not get mark ingram'd this year! ohhhh! that was a little kidney shot for all us ingram fans from last year. i was one of the biggest ingram fans.

I don't know if AdP is the best comparison with Richardson. I think AdP has better straight line speed but T-Rich does possess rare talent. He remings me of a more compact Earl Cambell who also came into the league as an excellent pass receiver. AdP can catch but he's never been considered a great receing talent and comes off the field on many third and long situations. I think T-Rich will stay on the field due to his value as a pass protector and as a receiving threat. Also I can see where the consensus of the Browns offensive line would be midland to fare. No problem with that view from the outside but I think the Browns line is a lil-bit better than average. The best are: OLT Joe Thomas who has made the Pro Bowl every year he's been in the league and arguably is the best OLT in the league, at C Alex Mack has already made the Pro Bowl. Mack was an alternate in the AFC where guys like Mangold among others make it really tough to get noticed so he's one of the best at his position in the NFL.

At one guard we started a fifth round rookie last year, Jason Pinkston, he got thrown-in at the start of last year due to a season ending injury suffered by Eric Steinbeck in camp. Pinkston started out shakey and looked bad until late in the year when he really came on strong. He may be the best run blocker on the Browns line at least he looked that way at the end of last year. At the other guard is Shuan Lavoua and he is average. He's a decent run blocker but gets lost in pass protection many times.

The Browns right tackle position has seen the worst play in the NFL over the last four or five years. Teams have weaknesses but when a team has had a major weakness at one postion for so long and then get the best ORT prospect in a draft, Mitchell Schwarts, and he's already been penciled in as the starter then it is reasonable to not only anticipate an upgrade but a significant upgrade. Add the Browns also drafted OT Ryan Miller in the fifth round this year for depth and the Browns O-Line has taken a step forward from mediocrity IMHO.

Trent Richardson will make the line look even better, they won't have to blow up huge creases and won't have to hold those lanes open as long in order for Richardson to take advantage. I think they will become even more physical now that they have a weapon that will allow them to wear down opposing defensive lines.

Basically I think the key is ORT Mitchell Schwartz and the improved play of OG Jason Pinkston at the end of last season. That is two significant upgrades on what was an average O-Line for the most of last year but now looks like a top-ten line at worst but I think will soon be viewed as one of the very best in the league.

 

[meyerj31]

We should also consider in re-draft the quality of opposition.

Week 2 - Bengals (12th in rushing DEF, up and coming DEF overall)

Week 4 - Ravens (6th in rushing DEF)

Week 5 - Giants (5th)

Week 6 - Bengals (12th)

Week 9 - Ravens (6th)

Week 12 - Steelers (8th)

Overall I suppose that's not that bad, and may be just below average. But there's still some tough rush DEF teams on there.

Also consider that AP had all-pro Hutchinson in his prime for 5 years. I don't see any all-pro linemen blocking for TRich...

 

[Multiple Scores]

We should also consider in re-draft the quality of opposition.

Week 2 - Bengals (12th in rushing DEF, up and coming DEF overall)

Week 4 - Ravens (6th in rushing DEF)

Week 5 - Giants (5th)

Week 6 - Bengals (12th)

Week 9 - Ravens (6th)

Week 12 - Steelers (8th)

Overall I suppose that's not that bad, and may be just below average. But there's still some tough rush DEF teams on there.

Also consider that AP had all-pro Hutchinson in his prime for 5 years. I don't see any all-pro linemen blocking for TRich...

Joe Thomas and Alex Mack.

 

[pwakefield77]

I just want to thank the media for every time they attached the phrase "best talent since adrian peterson" to any trent richardson mention this offseason. How in the world did i get Adrian peterson in the early 4th round in 2007 in redraft leagues and Richardson is being drafted at the end of round one beginning of round two? My question today is WHERE does Richardson really deserve to be drafted in redraft leagues all things considered. What kind of numbers can we expect from Richardson. here's a few things that are working in his favor

1. he's the best player on the browns roster

2a) he's gonna get the ball 20+ times a game.

2b) he's a 3 down back

3. he's working behind i'd say an offensive line that's right in the middle of the pack in the nfl

4. he's a special talent

i'd like to hear where you guys think trent richardson should be drafted. does he truly deserve to be drafted at the end of 1 beginning of 2 in redraft leagues.

let's not get mark ingram'd this year! ohhhh! that was a little kidney shot for all us ingram fans from last year. i was one of the biggest ingram fans.

I don't know if AdP is the best comparison with Richardson. I think AdP has better straight line speed but T-Rich does possess rare talent. He remings me of a more compact Earl Cambell who also came into the league as an excellent pass receiver. AdP can catch but he's never been considered a great receing talent and comes off the field on many third and long situations. I think T-Rich will stay on the field due to his value as a pass protector and as a receiving threat. Also I can see where the consensus of the Browns offensive line would be midland to fare. No problem with that view from the outside but I think the Browns line is a lil-bit better than average. The best are: OLT Joe Thomas who has made the Pro Bowl every year he's been in the league and arguably is the best OLT in the league, at C Alex Mack has already made the Pro Bowl. Mack was an alternate in the AFC where guys like Mangold among others make it really tough to get noticed so he's one of the best at his position in the NFL.

At one guard we started a fifth round rookie last year, Jason Pinkston, he got thrown-in at the start of last year due to a season ending injury suffered by Eric Steinbeck in camp. Pinkston started out shakey and looked bad until late in the year when he really came on strong. He may be the best run blocker on the Browns line at least he looked that way at the end of last year. At the other guard is Shuan Lavoua and he is average. He's a decent run blocker but gets lost in pass protection many times.

The Browns right tackle position has seen the worst play in the NFL over the last four or five years. Teams have weaknesses but when a team has had a major weakness at one postion for so long and then get the best ORT prospect in a draft, Mitchell Schwarts, and he's already been penciled in as the starter then it is reasonable to not only anticipate an upgrade but a significant upgrade. Add the Browns also drafted OT Ryan Miller in the fifth round this year for depth and the Browns O-Line has taken a step forward from mediocrity IMHO.

Trent Richardson will make the line look even better, they won't have to blow up huge creases and won't have to hold those lanes open as long in order for Richardson to take advantage. I think they will become even more physical now that they have a weapon that will allow them to wear down opposing defensive lines.

Basically I think the key is ORT Mitchell Schwartz and the improved play of OG Jason Pinkston at the end of last season. That is two significant upgrades on what was an average O-Line for the most of last year but now looks like a top-ten line at worst but I think will soon be viewed as one of the very best in the league.

 

[pwakefield77]

bracie, fantastic breakdown of the line. i would agree joe thomas is possibly the best tackle in the game. i do think pinkston is the weak link. i think the biggest knock on this line is the lack of depth. but overall i agree this line has potential to take a good stride upwards from the middle of the pack!

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he is too risky to take in the late first or early second of a redraft. You can lose your season if he plays like he's on the Browns.

Gotta agree with this. Cleveland's offense has been brutal, and I don't see that changing this year. I like Richardson alot, but he's going to see a ton of 8 man fronts and three and outs. The team won't be spending much time in the red zone. Most rookies need some time to pick up pass protection schemes, so his value as a receiving option (for this year) is completely up in the air also.Dynasty-wise TRich is easily a top-10 RB. Redraft-wise, not so much IMO. I'm guessing he'll go late 1st come August, which will be too high for me.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

We should also consider in re-draft the quality of opposition.

Week 2 - Bengals (12th in rushing DEF, up and coming DEF overall)

Week 4 - Ravens (6th in rushing DEF)

Week 5 - Giants (5th)

Week 6 - Bengals (12th)

Week 9 - Ravens (6th)

Week 12 - Steelers (8th)

Overall I suppose that's not that bad, and may be just below average. But there's still some tough rush DEF teams on there.

Also consider that AP had all-pro Hutchinson in his prime for 5 years. I don't see any all-pro linemen blocking for TRich...

True but consider that the defenses in the AFCN got to face the Browns offense last year two times each. An offense with a new head coach/offensive coordinator. An offense who was starting a rookie OG and a young OG at the other spot and had lost their starting ORT due to injury.

An offense that went into camp with one RB who was coming off of a major inury but unfortunately he never seemed to come back and the otheer RB who was put on the cover of Madden and was coming of a big year but who completely flaked out.

An offense that was starting a rookie WR who dropped many passes but he is considered their, sic, best WR. Their, sic, best veteran WR was injured all camp and didn't see the feild till opening day.

An offense that was starting a young QB who simply has a very weak arm.

Add that this offense didn't have an off-season workout program to get any sort of chemistry.

The last two drafts the Browns have drafted defensive players with their top two picks, CB Joe Haden, SS TJ Ward, and DT Phil Taylor, DE Jabaal Sheard. So the offense has not been address with high picks and top prospects untill this year.

The Browns offense has been one of the worst in the NFL and that had to undoubtedly helped out every defense in the AFCN.

Not predicting a top-five or even a top-ten offense but I do think we will see an improvement on the Browns offensive standings accross the board and that means the opposing defensive rankings will likely move down a bit.

The AFCN defenses are very good, no question about that, but they may not be as good as their press clippings since they got to fatten up on a very bad offense for years. Now that offense has an improved O-Line and a weapon in RB Trent Richardson. That offense still lacks a legit #1 WR but the Browns offense will be improved so those defenses are likely going to move down a notch or two in the rankings.

 

[pwakefield77]

a couple of you show reservation in trich cause of the offense. those that have reservations give me some trich stats this year. what's his FLOOR look like?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

a couple of you show reservation in trich cause of the offense. those that have reservations give me some trich stats this year. what's his FLOOR look like?

His absolute floor is to be a Lawrence Phillips / Ki-Jana Carter complete bust. I don't think it's at all likely, but the possibility exists.A more realistic low-end projection is for Cleveland to regress on offense with Weeden struggling at QB, while Richardson struggles in pass pro and wears down late in the season. So 200 carries for 800 yards, 5-7 TDs, 15 catches for another 100 yards.I'll certainly project him higher than that, as I like him as a player, but I wouldn't have a heart attack if he put up the above stats, either.

 

[gandalas]

Also to consider as far as Baltimore goes, I gotta figure that the loss of Suggs hurts their Run-D as well as their Pass-d. So that #6 Run defense may not hold such a lofty perch this season.

I would not be happy with anything less than 1200 combined yards and 8+ TDs. I really don't see any less than that barring injury to either Richardson or one of our starting O-linemen.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

a couple of you show reservation in trich cause of the offense. those that have reservations give me some trich stats this year. what's his FLOOR look like?

His absolute floor is to be a Lawrence Phillips / Ki-Jana Carter complete bust. I don't think it's at all likely, but the possibility exists.A more realistic low-end projection is for Cleveland to regress on offense with Weeden struggling at QB, while Richardson struggles in pass pro and wears down late in the season. So 200 carries for 800 yards, 5-7 TDs, 15 catches for another 100 yards.

I'll certainly project him higher than that, as I like him as a player, but I wouldn't have a heart attack if he put up the above stats, either.

I don't think that Weeden AND McCoy would be expected to do worse than Colt McCoy and everything that hampered Colt last year.I mean Colt really got screwed IMHO. OG Eric Steinbeck out injured and starting a fifth round rookie and a second year guy at the other OG slot. ORT Tony Pashos injured and two of the worst RTs in league history rotating on the right side. WR Mohammad Massaquoi injured all camp and getting no reps with Colt till opening day. A rookie starting at the other WR slot. No off-season to prepare him for the West Coast Offense. And then Monterio Hardesty never coming back from his knee injury and Peyton Hillis holding out and being injured and being a locker room cancer. McCoy had no chance.

So I don't think Brandon Weeden who is taller and has a much better arm and has an improved O-Line and one of the best young RBs in the league should be viewed as a downgrade over Colt McCoy from last year.

If anything, the worst case is a push especially considering that Colt is still on the team and the consensus is that they won't start Weeden if he isn't ready. Worst case is that Colt will start the season but I expect it will be Weeden and the situation is much improved over what Colt faced last year.

 

[bostonfred]

he could certainly live up to that draft slot.

This is never something you want to say about your draft picks.

 

[RavenLunatic]

When Peterson came into the league there was also Chester Taylor coming off an impressive first year with the Vikings as their lead back. The assumption (my assumption) was that they would be in a RBBC for his first season so that likely affected his value in redraft.

Would be curious to see where Peterson went in dynasty startups that year though?

 

[pwakefield77]

have there been any coaching changes on the cleveland browns staff? if so was it an upgrade or downgrade?

 

[MAC_32]

have there been any coaching changes on the cleveland browns staff? if so was it an upgrade or downgrade?

Added Childress, upgrade or downgrade is debatable.I'm planning to take him with my round 1 pick unless I'm in the top 5. My only concern about him is the rookie wall.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

have there been any coaching changes on the cleveland browns staff? if so was it an upgrade or downgrade?

Yes.Brad Childress was named OC.Last year HC Pat Shumur had never been a head coach before. He was the Ram offensive coordinator and couldn't find anyone last year that he felt comfortable with as his OC so he pulled double duties.A rookie HC also was the OC.Can you see how that would be a problem? Many Browns fans had an issue with that scenario last year as did Mike Holmgren. It was announced that Shurmur would get an OC this year.Chilly is lambasted by Viking fans but he knows the WCO and worked with Shurmur in Philly. He is an upgrade over just Shurmur who never should have had double duty as HC/OC last year.Add Shurmur couldn't get any worse as the HC. He was, to be kind, raw last year as the main guy. His first game he actually KNOCKED OVER A REF ON THE SIDELINES and got a fifteen yard penatly in a close game that he lost. So not only do the Browns have an experienced OC they don't have a raw-rookie HC. They are improved in coaching too IMHO.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

a couple of you show reservation in trich cause of the offense. those that have reservations give me some trich stats this year. what's his FLOOR look like?

His absolute floor is to be a Lawrence Phillips / Ki-Jana Carter complete bust. I don't think it's at all likely, but the possibility exists.A more realistic low-end projection is for Cleveland to regress on offense with Weeden struggling at QB, while Richardson struggles in pass pro and wears down late in the season. So 200 carries for 800 yards, 5-7 TDs, 15 catches for another 100 yards.

I'll certainly project him higher than that, as I like him as a player, but I wouldn't have a heart attack if he put up the above stats, either.

I don't think that Weeden AND McCoy would be expected to do worse than Colt McCoy and everything that hampered Colt last year.I mean Colt really got screwed IMHO. OG Eric Steinbeck out injured and starting a fifth round rookie and a second year guy at the other OG slot. ORT Tony Pashos injured and two of the worst RTs in league history rotating on the right side. WR Mohammad Massaquoi injured all camp and getting no reps with Colt till opening day. A rookie starting at the other WR slot. No off-season to prepare him for the West Coast Offense. And then Monterio Hardesty never coming back from his knee injury and Peyton Hillis holding out and being injured and being a locker room cancer. McCoy had no chance.

So I don't think Brandon Weeden who is taller and has a much better arm and has an improved O-Line and one of the best young RBs in the league should be viewed as a downgrade over Colt McCoy from last year.

If anything, the worst case is a push especially considering that Colt is still on the team and the consensus is that they won't start Weeden if he isn't ready. Worst case is that Colt will start the season but I expect it will be Weeden and the situation is much improved over what Colt faced last year.

Every NFL team faces injuries every year. Every team dealt with the lockout last year. Teams change choaching staffs and have new starters every year.The Browns have had a bottom 2 or 3 offense for four years running now. Last year's crappy showing wasn't anything out of the ordinary; it was par for the course. I see little evidence that anything has changed. The team continues to be run poorly. I like Richardson, but the Browns definitely overpaid considering the value of RBs compared to other positions in today's NFL. They made a huge reach on a QB that will turn 29 during his rookie season. It absolutely reeks of desperation. Far most likely outcome is another 3-5 win season featuring one of the worst offenses in the NFL, followed by more upheaval and turnover in the coaching staff and upper management.

It's a shame, because I think Richardson is a great talent. He's just going to be stuck playing for a brutally bad franchise.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I'm on board that he's a stud and should get a ton of touches, but I do not like that schedule one bit....and that's even with one of the Steeler games being in week 17. It's going to be tough for the kid to live up to first round rankings when he's got to go up against the NFC East and Denver outside of an already tough AFC North.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Every NFL team faces injuries every year. Every team dealt with the lockout last year. Teams change choaching staffs and have new starters every year.The Browns have had a bottom 2 or 3 offense for four years running now. Last year's crappy showing wasn't anything out of the ordinary; it was par for the course. I see little evidence that anything has changed. The team continues to be run poorly. I like Richardson, but the Browns definitely overpaid considering the value of RBs compared to other positions in today's NFL. They made a huge reach on a QB that will turn 29 during his rookie season. It absolutely reeks of desperation. Far most likely outcome is another 3-5 win season featuring one of the worst offenses in the NFL, followed by more upheaval and turnover in the coaching staff and upper management.It's a shame, because I think Richardson is a great talent. He's just going to be stuck playing for a brutally bad franchise.

Absolutely.Every NFL team has injuries.Good teams can weather injuries better than bad teams.So if a bad team used its top-four picks in the previous last-two drafts and saw a significant improvement on defense due to added talent and then this year used its three top picks on offensae, two number one picks and a high second round selection then the injuries suffered last year without those top three prospects and young players who developed then the situation has changed.If Monterio Hardesty and Petyon Hillis were the projected starters and if Eric Stienbeck and Tony Pashos were projected starters and if the team was shoving in a rookie HC without an OC on an off-season when they were implmenting a WCO and switching from the 3-4 to the 4-3 with two rookie D-Linemen. And if they were starting a rookie WR and had their top veteran WR injured and unable to work with the QB. And if they were projecting to start a weak armed QB without any competition. Then the situation would be exactly the same as last year.I think the situation has changed, especially with the imporovement showed by OG Jason Pinkston and the addition of ORT Mitchell Schwartz and adding RB Trent Richardson into the mix. Anything that Weeden can possibly add is a bonus IMHO.Injuries can and will happen but the underlying talent has improved on the Cleveland offense with young players and the emphasis will be on Trent Richardson and the offensive line.Their has been a significant change with the Cleveland offense. It still lacks a legit #1 wideout so they won't be able to install the type of WCO that Holmgren is known for with multiple WRs but their is a version of the WCO used by Bill Walsh that utilized a RB with a FB/H-back that was effective. Err, the Browns have drafted TWO FBs in the last two drafts. Thats another piece of the puzzle that wasn't in place last year.

 

[MAC_32]

a couple of you show reservation in trich cause of the offense. those that have reservations give me some trich stats this year. what's his FLOOR look like?

His absolute floor is to be a Lawrence Phillips / Ki-Jana Carter complete bust. I don't think it's at all likely, but the possibility exists.A more realistic low-end projection is for Cleveland to regress on offense with Weeden struggling at QB, while Richardson struggles in pass pro and wears down late in the season. So 200 carries for 800 yards, 5-7 TDs, 15 catches for another 100 yards.

I'll certainly project him higher than that, as I like him as a player, but I wouldn't have a heart attack if he put up the above stats, either.

I don't think that Weeden AND McCoy would be expected to do worse than Colt McCoy and everything that hampered Colt last year.I mean Colt really got screwed IMHO. OG Eric Steinbeck out injured and starting a fifth round rookie and a second year guy at the other OG slot. ORT Tony Pashos injured and two of the worst RTs in league history rotating on the right side. WR Mohammad Massaquoi injured all camp and getting no reps with Colt till opening day. A rookie starting at the other WR slot. No off-season to prepare him for the West Coast Offense. And then Monterio Hardesty never coming back from his knee injury and Peyton Hillis holding out and being injured and being a locker room cancer. McCoy had no chance.

So I don't think Brandon Weeden who is taller and has a much better arm and has an improved O-Line and one of the best young RBs in the league should be viewed as a downgrade over Colt McCoy from last year.

If anything, the worst case is a push especially considering that Colt is still on the team and the consensus is that they won't start Weeden if he isn't ready. Worst case is that Colt will start the season but I expect it will be Weeden and the situation is much improved over what Colt faced last year.

Every NFL team faces injuries every year. Every team dealt with the lockout last year. Teams change choaching staffs and have new starters every year.The Browns have had a bottom 2 or 3 offense for four years running now. Last year's crappy showing wasn't anything out of the ordinary; it was par for the course. I see little evidence that anything has changed. The team continues to be run poorly. I like Richardson, but the Browns definitely overpaid considering the value of RBs compared to other positions in today's NFL. They made a huge reach on a QB that will turn 29 during his rookie season. It absolutely reeks of desperation. Far most likely outcome is another 3-5 win season featuring one of the worst offenses in the NFL, followed by more upheaval and turnover in the coaching staff and upper management.

It's a shame, because I think Richardson is a great talent. He's just going to be stuck playing for a brutally bad franchise.

Glass half empty or half full, it's the same info - it's just a metter of how you read it.I like bringing in an OC, getting a franchise RB, then shoring up a leaky o line to build around that stud RB.

I don't like that this regime didn't see running last season without an OC as a problem coming into last year, that despite bringing in an OC Shurmur is still going to call the plays, that they wasted a roster spot on Brian Robiskie when everyone in Cleveland told them to get rid of him, that they signed Evan Moore to an extension and then didn't play him, that WR wasn't upgraded this off season (several failed attempts), and the move to bring in another rookie QB - one not named Luck or RG3 anyway.

As many questions as I have about this team, most deservingly so imho, I don't doubt the running game. Last year showed this team won't get blown out much so they will be in every game. Even if we do fall behind, Richardson's advanced in the passing game for this stage in his career so he will still be productive. In the end, re the offense, the RB position is infinitely better, the RT is significantly upgraded (yes a 2nd round rookie is miles better than the last 3 RT's we've had here...combined), our young guards now have better depth and more experience (Pinkston really stepped his game up at the end of last year). And, at worst, Weeden will be equally as bad as Colt. Or if he's worse then Colt just comes back. Most importantly the Browns running game was atrocious last year because of the issues at RT and RG but above all else it was because of the quality of RB's. I know what Hillis did in 2010, but outside of the Colts game and the last couple he was completely ineffective, and Hardesty was worse. Richardson is an incredible upgrade over anything back there last year.

To be clear, I'm not defending the Browns offense, as most Cleveland fans in here will tell you I'm not a fan of our off season from a team perspective. But that distaste is not consistent with my thoughts on the running game. The running game will be fine and it wouldn't surprise me if it's great. Only concern, again, rookie wall.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't really disagree too much. The scenario I laid out above was my low end projection. Come August I'll likely pencil in Trent for 250 for 1100, 30 catches for another 200, 8-10 total TDs or something. I like him a lot.

But, I don't like the Browns at all. I doubt that Holmgren and Shurmur are going to right the ship and stick around. I think that the chances of another total team implosion are way too high for me to roll the dice on Richardson in the late 1st or early 2nd where he'll probably go.

Dynasty-wise, I draft with a heavy lean toward talent, and I see Trent as falling in the 4-6 range overall among RBs. In redraft leagues, I weigh situation WAY more heavily, and Richardson likely won't be a top-10 or 12 RB1 on my board. Chances are just too high, IMO, that Cleveland's offense craps the bed again and finishes 30th in points/yards, as they have every year for the past four.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

he could certainly live up to that draft slot.

This is never something you want to say about your draft picks.

i think i'll be looking at wr's or trading back if i am in the trich area draft spot. For this reason. After the top 5/6 guys, i don't trust any of the next bunch of guys enough to pick them there.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... I don't like that this regime didn't see running last season without an OC as a problem coming into last year, that despite bringing in an OC Shurmur is still going to call the plays, that they wasted a roster spot on Brian Robiskie when everyone in Cleveland told them to get rid of him, that they signed Evan Moore to an extension and then didn't play him, that WR wasn't upgraded this off season (several failed attempts), and the move to bring in another rookie QB - one not named Luck or RG3 anyway...

The regime boils down to Holmgren since he holds the juice. He's not perfect and I do not like certain decisions that he made but once again, I favor Mike Holmgren over what we had as a president before he arrived on the scene which was nothing for a president.No OC last year was Shurmur's decision and Holmgren let him have his way but before the season ended Holmgren stepped in and said next year we would have an OC. He soft-selled it to the media but saying it was too much to expect from Shurmur which is correct but I think it reads more like an edict that it will be done.Offensive Coordinators do a heck of a lot more than just call plays, heck calling plays is only a few minutes of decision making in a three hour game. The OC is the facilitator of all offensive meetings during the week so that is hours of work taken off of Shurmur's plate during the week. During the game the OC is in the ear of the QB and he's organizing personnel. Shurmur will now be free to keep a better eye on all three aspects of the game. If he calls plays it really is nothing at all. Do not make a big deal of this, many HCs who were OCs call plays. It is not a recipe for disaster, its perfectly normal but you do not see many HCs who have duel roles as HC and OC especially for a rookie HC so your point of anger is well established. I agree but its over now so don't hold it against Holmgren. Don't forget he's a rookie as a president and we've seen him make mistakes but he seems to learn.Best decision Holmgren has made IMHO is Heckertt.Heck has had solid drafts, prior to his arrival the only keepers were Joe-T and Alex Mack, the two cornerstones on the O-Line from which to build so that is why I feel the addition of Schwartz and rapid development of Pinkston will push the overall O-Line play to the next level.We had to build-up the D-Line with only one solid hold-over in DT Ahtyba Rubin but their are only four starting D-Lineman as apposed to five starting O-Linemen. Adding two solid rookies on the D-Line last year showed immediate results and this year we began to add some depth later in the draft so I am feeling better about the D-Line. On the O-Line we started out with two solid hold-overs in Thomas and Mack and saw Pinky improve before adding Schwartz and even a depth guy like Ryan Miller so I think the O-Line makes a big leap.We also added the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson to give the offense a big-play threat and have layered in some WRs over the last two years.I just hope to hell that Holmgren does not get in Heckertt's way as I believe he did in this draft but I'll hold my tongue for now on that subject.Oh and the new HC hadn't seen Robie and he also didn't have a lot of options so I do not hold it against him that he kept him and got a good look at him before cutting him. Also TE Evan Moore was inked to an extension and not played because we had to keep a blocking TE to help out the poor play at ORT. Now, this season, after addressing ORT in the draft we will see more of MOORE and less of Alex Smith who was is primarily a blocking TE. Also Ben Watson was our most dynamic TE since he could both block and catch but he suffered mutltiple concussions which set him back. Oh and count on more opportuntities for second year TE Jordan Cameron or is that Cameron Jordan? The Browns actually phoned the wrong guy during last year's draft and its still confusing for me. I'm not sure who you wanted them to bring in at QB. If you want to complain about not getting a WR then explain that scenario where they could get a top notch WR in addition to Richardson and Weeden and the ORT because I don't see it and I don't agree with the anger at not getting a WR this year since we didn't hold three first round picks.With so many holes and only so many high picks we couldn't possibly address everything but if our top three picks start from day-one and play reasonably well, and very-well in the case of Richardson, then this will lay the foundation on offense where we can improve and these changes will make it much easier to fit in missing pieces next year.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I don't really disagree too much. The scenario I laid out above was my low end projection. Come August I'll likely pencil in Trent for 250 for 1100, 30 catches for another 200, 8-10 total TDs or something. I like him a lot.

But, I don't like the Browns at all. I doubt that Holmgren and Shurmur are going to right the ship and stick around. I think that the chances of another total team implosion are way too high for me to roll the dice on Richardson in the late 1st or early 2nd where he'll probably go.

Dynasty-wise, I draft with a heavy lean toward talent, and I see Trent as falling in the 4-6 range overall among RBs. In redraft leagues, I weigh situation WAY more heavily, and Richardson likely won't be a top-10 or 12 RB1 on my board. Chances are just too high, IMO, that Cleveland's offense craps the bed again and finishes 30th in points/yards, as they have every year for the past four.

I think you are under-selling the number of receptions that Richardson will see.Russ Lande (former NFL Scout/current NFL Draft analyst for The Sporting News) is about as thorough and well-respected as they come. I wanted to share with you his thoughts in the form of tweets on how the Browns fared this year.

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Love Browns 1st 3 picks as Richardson, Weeden & Schwartz should start in 2012. Also, like a number of the Browns other picks ...

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Like Browns pick of slot wr T. Benjamin as he is explosive & elusive with big play ability when he gets ball in open field.

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Do not be shocked if the Browns last pick B. Smelley make an impact catching 40+ passes as he is a versatile receiving threat.

If Lande projects a seventh round FB to catch 40+ passes then expect T-Rich to catch 50+ passes.

The WCO scenario that I hinted at is a version that Bill Walsh had in San Francisco where he had a split backfield and the RB would go to one flat and the FB to the other. What Lande hits at is exactly what I see of this offense as well.

Bump up your yardage projections by at least two hundred yards and your receptions totals by at least twenty receptions and punch in the extra yards and TDs those touches would entail.

 

[MAC_32]

... I don't like that this regime didn't see running last season without an OC as a problem coming into last year, that despite bringing in an OC Shurmur is still going to call the plays, that they wasted a roster spot on Brian Robiskie when everyone in Cleveland told them to get rid of him, that they signed Evan Moore to an extension and then didn't play him, that WR wasn't upgraded this off season (several failed attempts), and the move to bring in another rookie QB - one not named Luck or RG3 anyway...

The regime boils down to Holmgren since he holds the juice. He's not perfect and I do not like certain decisions that he made but once again, I favor Mike Holmgren over what we had as a president before he arrived on the scene which was nothing for a president.No OC last year was Shurmur's decision and Holmgren let him have his way but before the season ended Holmgren stepped in and said next year we would have an OC. He soft-selled it to the media but saying it was too much to expect from Shurmur which is correct but I think it reads more like an edict that it will be done.Offensive Coordinators do a heck of a lot more than just call plays, heck calling plays is only a few minutes of decision making in a three hour game. The OC is the facilitator of all offensive meetings during the week so that is hours of work taken off of Shurmur's plate during the week. During the game the OC is in the ear of the QB and he's organizing personnel. Shurmur will now be free to keep a better eye on all three aspects of the game. If he calls plays it really is nothing at all. Do not make a big deal of this, many HCs who were OCs call plays. It is not a recipe for disaster, its perfectly normal but you do not see many HCs who have duel roles as HC and OC especially for a rookie HC so your point of anger is well established. I agree but its over now so don't hold it against Holmgren. Don't forget he's a rookie as a president and we've seen him make mistakes but he seems to learn.Best decision Holmgren has made IMHO is Heckertt.Heck has had solid drafts, prior to his arrival the only keepers were Joe-T and Alex Mack, the two cornerstones on the O-Line from which to build so that is why I feel the addition of Schwartz and rapid development of Pinkston will push the overall O-Line play to the next level.We had to build-up the D-Line with only one solid hold-over in DT Ahtyba Rubin but their are only four starting D-Lineman as apposed to five starting O-Linemen. Adding two solid rookies on the D-Line last year showed immediate results and this year we began to add some depth later in the draft so I am feeling better about the D-Line. On the O-Line we started out with two solid hold-overs in Thomas and Mack and saw Pinky improve before adding Schwartz and even a depth guy like Ryan Miller so I think the O-Line makes a big leap.We also added the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson to give the offense a big-play threat and have layered in some WRs over the last two years.I just hope to hell that Holmgren does not get in Heckertt's way as I believe he did in this draft but I'll hold my tongue for now on that subject.Oh and the new HC hadn't seen Robie and he also didn't have a lot of options so I do not hold it against him that he kept him and got a good look at him before cutting him. Also TE Evan Moore was inked to an extension and not played because we had to keep a blocking TE to help out the poor play at ORT. Now, this season, after addressing ORT in the draft we will see more of MOORE and less of Alex Smith who was is primarily a blocking TE. Also Ben Watson was our most dynamic TE since he could both block and catch but he suffered mutltiple concussions which set him back. Oh and count on more opportuntities for second year TE Jordan Cameron or is that Cameron Jordan? The Browns actually phoned the wrong guy during last year's draft and its still confusing for me. I'm not sure who you wanted them to bring in at QB. If you want to complain about not getting a WR then explain that scenario where they could get a top notch WR in addition to Richardson and Weeden and the ORT because I don't see it and I don't agree with the anger at not getting a WR this year since we didn't hold three first round picks.With so many holes and only so many high picks we couldn't possibly address everything but if our top three picks start from day-one and play reasonably well, and very-well in the case of Richardson, then this will lay the foundation on offense where we can improve and these changes will make it much easier to fit in missing pieces next year.

All of your questions can be answered throughout the Browns thread - grab a drink or 5 and have at it. But this thread is about how awesome Richardson is going to be, I don't think our QB situation will have a negative impact on him as long as we don't have a Gabbert or a Clausen back there.

 

[DoubleG]

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Do not be shocked if the Browns last pick B. Smelley make an impact catching 40+ passes as he is a versatile receiving threat.

Dude needs to change his last name...or at least a different first initial. How do you ask a woman to marry you... "Would you like to be Mrs. Smelley for the rest of your life"

"Smelley family, your table is ready"

Although, that's probably what made him tough - like a boy named Sue.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Based on the fantasy points MJD put up last year playing in a nightmarishly bad offense, I'm not that worried about Richardson being on the Browns. The Browns clearly have a better line than Jax had last year and can't get worse play from the QB position.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I don't really disagree too much. The scenario I laid out above was my low end projection. Come August I'll likely pencil in Trent for 250 for 1100, 30 catches for another 200, 8-10 total TDs or something. I like him a lot.

But, I don't like the Browns at all. I doubt that Holmgren and Shurmur are going to right the ship and stick around. I think that the chances of another total team implosion are way too high for me to roll the dice on Richardson in the late 1st or early 2nd where he'll probably go.

Dynasty-wise, I draft with a heavy lean toward talent, and I see Trent as falling in the 4-6 range overall among RBs. In redraft leagues, I weigh situation WAY more heavily, and Richardson likely won't be a top-10 or 12 RB1 on my board. Chances are just too high, IMO, that Cleveland's offense craps the bed again and finishes 30th in points/yards, as they have every year for the past four.

I think you are under-selling the number of receptions that Richardson will see.Russ Lande (former NFL Scout/current NFL Draft analyst for The Sporting News) is about as thorough and well-respected as they come. I wanted to share with you his thoughts in the form of tweets on how the Browns fared this year.

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Love Browns 1st 3 picks as Richardson, Weeden & Schwartz should start in 2012. Also, like a number of the Browns other picks ...

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Like Browns pick of slot wr T. Benjamin as he is explosive & elusive with big play ability when he gets ball in open field.

Russell Lande ‏ @RUSSLANDE

Do not be shocked if the Browns last pick B. Smelley make an impact catching 40+ passes as he is a versatile receiving threat.

If Lande projects a seventh round FB to catch 40+ passes then expect T-Rich to catch 50+ passes.

The WCO scenario that I hinted at is a version that Bill Walsh had in San Francisco where he had a split backfield and the RB would go to one flat and the FB to the other. What Lande hits at is exactly what I see of this offense as well.

Bump up your yardage projections by at least two hundred yards and your receptions totals by at least twenty receptions and punch in the extra yards and TDs those touches would entail.

So you see something like 1700-1800 total yards, 50 catches, and 12+ TDs as a realistic projection for Trent Richardson in 2012? In an offense that has finished in the 29-31 range the past four years? On a team that will very likely be starting a rookie at QB and is still going to field a bottom 5 receiving group?Maybe we do disagree quite a bit. Prime Jim Brown would have trouble hitting those numbers on this Cleveland team.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

So you see something like 1700-1800 total yards, 50 catches, and 12+ TDs as a realistic projection for Trent Richardson in 2012? In an offense that has finished in the 29-31 range the past four years? On a team that will very likely be starting a rookie at QB and is still going to field a bottom 5 receiving group?Maybe we do disagree quite a bit. Prime Jim Brown would have trouble hitting those numbers on this Cleveland team.

MJD had 1980 yards, 43 catches and 11 TDs on the 32nd ranked offense with a terrible rookie QB and lousy WRs so I'm pretty sure Jim Brown could do it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So you see something like 1700-1800 total yards, 50 catches, and 12+ TDs as a realistic projection for Trent Richardson in 2012? In an offense that has finished in the 29-31 range the past four years? On a team that will very likely be starting a rookie at QB and is still going to field a bottom 5 receiving group?Maybe we do disagree quite a bit. Prime Jim Brown would have trouble hitting those numbers on this Cleveland team.

Let's be fair here, as this exact thing just happened this past year.The Jags were dead last in total offense (compared to the Browns 29th), also had a rookie QB (who was awful, there's no way that Wheedon could be worse), and had probably the worst receiving corps in the league.MJD finished with 2000 yards and 11 TDs.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Within the realm of possibility < > likely to happen (reasonable projection)

 

[Bracie Smathers]

So you see something like 1700-1800 total yards, 50 catches, and 12+ TDs as a realistic projection for Trent Richardson in 2012? In an offense that has finished in the 29-31 range the past four years? On a team that will very likely be starting a rookie at QB and is still going to field a bottom 5 receiving group?

Maybe we do disagree quite a bit. Prime Jim Brown would have trouble hitting those numbers on this Cleveland team.

JB played in an era where he touched the rock ~30 times a game in 12 game seasons.T-Rich plays in an era where he will carry the ball less than 20 times a game so figure on 18 carries per game.

I think that he will see about four or five balls thrown his way per game so figure on a lil-over 3+ receptions per game.

18 carries * 4.6 YPA = 82 rushing yards per game.

I think that an average of 82 rushing yards per game is attainable.

======================================

I feel the coaches will game plan at least two designed receiving plays per game for Trent and that he will get an additional three opportuntities as a dump off or check-down receiver. I figure he will average 3.3 receptions per game. I think that is reasonable.

3.3 receptions per game * 9 yards per reception = 29.7 yards per game receiving yards

I feel that under 30 recieving yards per game is reasonable.

=====================================

1,311 rushing yards + 475 recieving yards =

1,786 total combined yards

I will go with your projected dozen TDs.

Sounds bout right to me.

 

[imagroid]

1800 yds and 12 td's? Better take him before the 1/2 turn then.

 

[Biabreakable]

have there been any coaching changes on the cleveland browns staff? if so was it an upgrade or downgrade?

Yes.Brad Childress was named OC.Last year HC Pat Shumur had never been a head coach before. He was the Ram offensive coordinator and couldn't find anyone last year that he felt comfortable with as his OC so he pulled double duties.A rookie HC also was the OC.Can you see how that would be a problem? Many Browns fans had an issue with that scenario last year as did Mike Holmgren. It was announced that Shurmur would get an OC this year.Chilly is lambasted by Viking fans but he knows the WCO and worked with Shurmur in Philly. He is an upgrade over just Shurmur who never should have had double duty as HC/OC last year.Add Shurmur couldn't get any worse as the HC. He was, to be kind, raw last year as the main guy. His first game he actually KNOCKED OVER A REF ON THE SIDELINES and got a fifteen yard penatly in a close game that he lost. So not only do the Browns have an experienced OC they don't have a raw-rookie HC. They are improved in coaching too IMHO.

While I think the Browns could do better at offensive coordinator than Childress and that firing Childress is addition by subtraction, there is one thing about him that I think should give the Browns and prospective Richardson owners some confidence in drafting Richardson.When Childress came to Minnesota he installed a run first version of the WCO. So a lot of short passes mixed with a high commitment to running the ball. Childress traded for Chester Taylor to be his bell cow, Taylor had never been the main RB before but he got 303 carries 1200 yards 6 TD. The Vikings ran the ball 442 times that year with no other significant RB besides Taylor. The following year when the Vikings drafted AD they ran 494 times using the 2 RB in tandem and with Jackson scrambling more from the QB position.I think Richardson is a near lock for something like 300+ carries as a rookie. From what I have read he is great in pass protection, one of the things that holds rookie RBs from more playing time. The offense will be commited to the run and Richardson is a much better player than Taylor was, and I like Chester Taylor, great RB but they are no where near the same level of talent.I think the Browns offensive line is quite capable of being an above average unit. They have 2 key positions covered, but it remains to be seen how the other 3 will perform. Depending on that and being able to keep drives going will determine Richardsons ceiling. I think he could be the number 1 RB in 2012 if things go well. If not I think his floor is higher than what Chester Taylor managed in a Childress offense.Richardson 2012 303-363 carries 4.3 ypc 1303-1560 yards 8-14 TD. Receptions are harder to guess but for lack of other options I could see him catching 30-40 as a rookie. I just think the receptions may be not as much due to teams keying on Richardson and because of that him not being open.The main problem I see with a Childress offense is that it becomes very predictable, and that limits the potential of more successful plays. But I will let you watch and see if you agree with this as the year rolls on. I do think he can be a good coach for this foundation in the running game however, and from that perspective I can see how Childress fits drafting Richardson well.

 

[stronger88]

I think Richardson is one of the top 10 RB's, but I'm not sure if I'd spend a 1st or 2nd on him. Unless I'm getting Foster/McCoy/Rice, I'm passing on RB's in the first two rounds. Running backs are too unpredictable for my tastes and there's always a ton of RB value later in the draft. I'd rather grab a stud WR/QB combo or possibly Gronk/Graham in the 2nd.

FWIW, Matthews was 19th overall (RB10) in 2010. Norv Turner was talking about getting him 275-300 touches, but Matthews got hurt and never really got going. T-Rich is obviously better than Matthews was coming out of college. I see T-Rich falling in between the RB6-9 range.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Im not a big TRich fan. Nor am I a hater. Im neutral.

But I'll be popping on him pretty early (top 20) if he shows something/anything in camps and preseason.

Why?

1654 yards 13 TDs (270 carries and 61 receptions in fourteen starts).

That's Peyton Hillis 2 years ago for the 5-11 Browns who were 29th in offense and 28th in Rush offense.