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Trump 2nd term chances. Assuming he wins. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Wooderson
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James Daulton
Footballguy
Who in their right mind would bet against Trump now? He could say he wanted to be Pope and I'd assume he'd make it happen somehow.
toshiba
Footballguy
I think he has a better chance to be reelected than he did to get elected in the first place. His supporters will dig in their heals and support him again no matter what. He has a better than 0% chance to convince people there is less to be afraid of with him than they thought before the 2016 election. I say somewhere between 50% and 75%.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Too early to discuss this I guess.
honky kong
Footballguy
I agree with this. A large chunk of the people who voted for him did so as a middle finger to the system. They'll still feel the same way in four years.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Given his temperament, most likely outcome is he quits.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
#42-#44 were all re-elected. That's the first time since #3-#5 we saw three straight two-term presidents.
Trump is #45.
18 were re-elected. 3 were assaasinated. The 14 who completed a second term:
George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Ulysses S. Grant
Grover Cleveland (non-consecutive terms)
Woodrow Wilson
Franklin D. Roosevelt (served 3 full terms, died early in 4th term).
Dwight Eisenhower
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barrack Obama
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Mr. Ected
Footballguy
The better question is whether he completes the first term. Either forced out legally via impeachment, or resigns either to avoid impeachment (a la Nixon) or just can't take it.
NorvilleBarnes
Footballguy
Voted 25% but I think it's closer to 10%. The Democrats will put up a better candidate than Hillary - they have no choice. I think Trump is a one term President and it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't even seek the nomination for a 2nd time.
Boston
Footballguy
Let's look at what his opponents are doing...many of them (not all) refuse to look in the mirror about the election results...instead it is a relentless blame-game of which they see zero issues with their message or their part in losing and many (including those in the media) are looking somewhat unhinged...since than they have re-upped Nancy Pelosi and are talking about electing a DNC Chair (Ellison) who has a ton of baggage to say the least...they have a huge hurdle to face in the Senate mid-terms in 2018 which they have a chance to take a decent beating...also, right now they are allowing Trump to get them off their game...he has turned into Claude Lemeiux/Rodney Harrison/Ulf Samuelson and they are allowing him to get them off their game and instead worry about petty BS which is not a good look for the Average Joe...not only that but because they keep dumping on every single thing he does they have put him in a position where if he does just OK it will look better than it should...on the flip-side if he actually does well and figures out a way to make some progress in the inner-cities he has a chance to put a real dent in the Dems identity-politic game-plan...
In the end whether you like Trump or not I think you better stop under-estimating him...the guy just completed an historic run...at the beginning of the GOP primary Anne Coulter was absolutely mocked for saying he would win the nomination in a crowded field...he not only won but he lapped the field...he was considered a joke of a candidate in the general election with literally no chance of winning by both his opponents and many of the pundits...he won again...I know many here are going to disagree (and will do so vehemently...and with the usual mockery) but if the dems don't stop pointing fingers/mocking Trump and think their message does not have legit issues they have a chance to make a tough political situation even worse...hate Trump all you want but right now the game-plan you are using against him has not worked and at some point you need to realize he's a much more worthy adversary than you are giving him credit for...
In the end whether you like Trump or not I think you better stop under-estimating him...the guy just completed an historic run...at the beginning of the GOP primary Anne Coulter was absolutely mocked for saying he would win the nomination in a crowded field...he not only won but he lapped the field...he was considered a joke of a candidate in the general election with literally no chance of winning by both his opponents and many of the pundits...he won again...I know many here are going to disagree (and will do so vehemently...and with the usual mockery) but if the dems don't stop pointing fingers/mocking Trump and think their message does not have legit issues they have a chance to make a tough political situation even worse...hate Trump all you want but right now the game-plan you are using against him has not worked and at some point you need to realize he's a much more worthy adversary than you are giving him credit for...
adonis
Footballguy
Trump won the nomination by simply complaining the loudest and being the biggest bully in the field, throwing all norms and decorum out of the window and harnessing the frustration of many voters and embodying that. He won the presidential election, with help from Russia, because of his appeal to white working class voters, and Hillary's lack of appeal to a broader coalition of voters in key states. Hillary still won almost 3 million more votes than him.
The point I want to make is that it's easier to be an outsider running on anger and frustration, blaming EVERYTHING on the administration or HRC. But with a few years under his belt, he won't be able to do the same thing. He will be the administration. He wasn't very effective getting people to line up behind his policy plans (unless you consider jailing Hillary or building a wall "policy"), but he will likely need to do that in order to win another term.
He's going into office riding a huge wave of improvements country-wide, with decreasing unemployment rate, soaring stock market, winding down wars we're not incredibly involved with...all in all, he's been handed a pretty damn good situation. What will he do with it, and what will his appeal to the voters be in 4 years (assuming he makes it that long without screwing up significantly enough to be thrown out of office)? No idea.
But the tl;dr of it is, he won by being an armchair quarterback, complaining about the play and playcalling of the qb and team. Now he is the QB, and has control of the team. What got him here won't get him 4 more years.
Boston
Footballguy
In a way you are making my point...at no point in your post do you mention what the dems need to do differently...it's all about Trump...I am not saying you don't have some reasonable points here but the dems need to realize that they were complicit in this loss and they are in danger of becoming a coastal-elite party...
adonis
Footballguy
I think you're right about that in some way, but also, keep in mind that the democrats won nearly 3 million more votes than Trump did...so it's not as if their message didn't resonate with a lot of people. What's important to assess is how big a factor frustration in the white working class, and other audiences, drove folks to Trump and whether that same approach will be as effective after 4 years of Trump and republicans holding all branches of government.
Lots of folks want to imply that the democrats were beaten by policy, and have a lot of soul searching to do. In my opinion, the data shows a different story, and that Trump the person was perfectly able to harness the frustration of a lot of folks, absent a clear policy platform that people preferred over Democrats. People were angry, things were changing, industries were moving away due to forces outside of their control...lots of stuff. Trump came in and harnessed their frustration, stoked it, and said he'd fix it all...he was going to bring back jobs, and build a wall, and talk tough. It was enough for a lot of folks to vote for him. But I doubt it'll be enough for folks to trust him again after 4 years of having full control. It's the republicans, in my opinion, who are the ones who need to do the soul searching.
Democrats have pretty solid policies that got 3 milllion more votes in support. Trump largely got a lot of folks just voting for him. If the republican platform itself were more compelling, someone like Cruz or Rubio or Jeb would've won...but that's not what people were interested in. They wanted someone who represented their frustration, and they got it. If they're still frustrated in 4 years, it will be because of Trump...he wont' be the answer anymore, and the platform the republicans have had, that Trump trounced all over, wasn't appealing to a large group of people as well as that of the democratic platform.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
I think the way the left has acted since the election has only hurt their chances for the next election. Like AA, admitting you have a problem is the first step. Instead, the reasons(excuses) they lost have consisted of some pretty ridiculous scapegoats.
adonis
Footballguy
Like the CIA and FBI saying that Russia was responsible for hacking the DNC and Podestas emails in order to undermine the US elections and get Trump elected?
Yeah, getting upset about a foreign enemy meddling in our election and working, successfully, to get a person sympathetic to their country elected, it's just poor form you know? I mean, we should be a lot more accommodating of foreign powers influencing our elections to get their guys in power.
Also, we should be very accepting of a president-elect who flat out lies to the American public. I'm not talking about spin, or a different perspective on facts...flat...out...lying. But yeah, liberals should not be bothered by that either.
Russian influence in our election, and lying by our president-elect...don't worry about it, says conservatives. Stop complaining, they say.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
Yes, until a source is named or someone comes forward with the proof, it's premature. Not to mention, it isn't even an accusation about people influencing the election with anything other than what these people actually did and said.
Keep on keeping on. I'm telling you, long term it ain't helping.
adonis
Footballguy
So the fact that the CIA and FBI agree on this isn't convincing to you.
In addition to trivializing FBI and CIA findings, you then attempt to justify the action of a foreign power by saying, in effect, "all they did was release what HRC and Podesta and others actually said!"...thereby, trivializing and minimizing the harm done by a foreign government meddling in our election to tilt the scales to get someone elected they want more than the other candidate.
So yeah...it's the liberals who are losing their way by trusting our intelligence agencies and having a BIG problem with foreign powers influencing our election. If pointing this out over and over again "ain't helping", it's not the fault of the liberals.
adonis
Footballguy
The popular vote shows that the democratic message resonated with a larger number of people across the nation than did the republican message. It's hard to argue that.
What Trump was able to do was resonate to enough people, in enough places so as to win the electoral college.
So when the democrats are supposed to be "soul searching", it's important to understand exactly what went wrong. Would Hillary campaigning in states she didn't have made a difference? Would focusing more on white working class voters have made a difference? Would attempting to focus more on those incredibly frustrated and feeling left out of the economy make more sense? What about rethinking the geography of where to focus efforts, funds and what to say? All of this is important.
What's important also is not to second guess a message that was pretty damned effective. It wasn't enough to win, and it's certainly reasonable to say that this was due in part to foreign government intervention in our election (imagine if the DNC and podesta emails weren't released) and Comey making his statement 10 days before the election, which turned out to be full of nothing. You can't look back on an entire election and just say that, because democrats lost, the message was terrible. There were other factors.
Certainly, the platform needs to be examined...but when you look at it, there's a lot in there for the folks who were angry and frustrated, but who went to Trump anyway. Perhaps it was in how the platform/policies were presented that was the problem...perhaps it wasn't taking on Trump's claims that he's going to bring back jobs that he has no possibility of doing, but that surely got him votes in key areas.
It's simple to the winning side to say "Our message must've been better, the democrats need to reassess everything because they lost" but it's more nuanced than that, which shouldn't be surprising.
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
adonis
Footballguy
It's a crisis of leadership, for our country and also for how democrats respond to him and the republican-lead government, but not necessarily a crisis of message. That's my point.
jonessed
Footballguy
If Donald Trump, the Senate, the House, 32 governorships and 33 state legislatures aren't good enough to convince the Democrats that their message is off I'm not sure anything will. Have at it
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