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Two Perfect Draft Articles Posted (1 Viewer)

I had a feeling that Romo would be your value QB this year. Late Round 3, yes, but unfortunately I know the way my friends draft and he'll be gone in Round 2 in my league.

 
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My favorite article. Worth the price of subscription by itself. After some mock drafting and review of this article I will be ready to dominate my league! :thumbup:

 
Great article as always. My only qualm is that I feel like a lot of the guys who are "value" now are not available at the spot when I draft in late August/early September. Guys like TO, Gaffney, Maroney, Bradshaw, Buckhaulter and Hester will all creep up in ADP over the next few weeks and will all be scooped up by someone in my big leagues a round or two earlier than their ADP as discussed in this article, I can almost guarantee it. Romo will probably be gone by 2.10, much less 3.10. I'm not sure how you would correct for something like this, as clearly using current ADP is not a bad measure for gauging where guys will get taken, but I don't think it fully will reflect the reality of what many/most drafts look like in a few weeks.

 
Good stuff DD but I also want to say that Romo is gone in the 2nd almost all the time. Dallas has a huge fan base, flashy owner, and Romo is no secret.

I like the TO and Zach Miller picks but I took them a lot earlier so maybe I'm reaching too much.

The names of the specific players are not always the key but the philosophy of this is always sound.

 
Love these articles. Anyone else get the feeling that Kevin Kolb is really gonna go much earlier than his current adp? I think a lot of people think they can sit on him right now and I think in the next week or two he is really going to start climbing up the boards.

 
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
Love these articles. Anyone else get the feeling that Kevin Kolb is really gonna go much earlier than his current adp? I think a lot of people think they can sit on him right now and I think in the next week or two he is really going to start climbing up the boards.
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That will depend on preseason game action. While WE all know not to overvalue preseason game performances, others TOTALLY get caught up in the hype. I see it every year. Some "sleeper" WR catches a 50-yard TD bomb and its flashed on Sportscenter and all of the sudden people start drafting him expecting his peak upside potential. To your point, if Kolb displays laser precision in the few drives he plays in the coming weeks, you can be sure he'll go higher. But if he struggles? Or the Eagles offense muddles along? You could grab him at current ADP or perhaps later.That's the UPSIDE of the preseason hype train, poor performances are equally overvalued. So while it's true that some of the ADP values of today will be hot commodities in the coming weeks, as many players going at fair value right now will see their ADP drop to a point where they become compelling options.

 
Jason Wood said:
That's the UPSIDE of the preseason hype train, poor performances are equally overvalued. So while it's true that some of the ADP values of today will be hot commodities in the coming weeks, as many players going at fair value right now will see their ADP drop to a point where they become compelling options.
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Exactly Woodrow. To me, it just boils down to the observation that a great many of us that really follow things closely can have a tendency to overreact. I know I fight that.In some ways, the guy paying less attention can almost have an advantage over the guy that moves players all over his draft list with every dropped pass. The key of course is finding the right balance. You have to see what's happening. But be able to interpret in the right context in order to make a valuable forecast. The more I'm around this, the more I'm convinced it's all about that.J
 
David Dodds said:
I took a cut of one (12 Team non-PPR) and Jeff Pasquino did another (Footballguys Players Championship).

Dodds article: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/1...erfectdraft.php

Pasquino article: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2010/1...erfectdraft.php

Enjoy...I am heading to bed...
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Considering this was my first Perfect Draft article, I have a newfound appreciation for the amount of time, effort and work that goes into making these strong articles. Hopefully I matched David's abilities or came close here.Feedback as always is welcome. Enjoy the reads.

 
Jason Wood said:
Buddy Ball 2K3 said:
Love these articles. Anyone else get the feeling that Kevin Kolb is really gonna go much earlier than his current adp? I think a lot of people think they can sit on him right now and I think in the next week or two he is really going to start climbing up the boards.
Click to expand...
That will depend on preseason game action. While WE all know not to overvalue preseason game performances, others TOTALLY get caught up in the hype. I see it every year. Some "sleeper" WR catches a 50-yard TD bomb and its flashed on Sportscenter and all of the sudden people start drafting him expecting his peak upside potential. To your point, if Kolb displays laser precision in the few drives he plays in the coming weeks, you can be sure he'll go higher. But if he struggles? Or the Eagles offense muddles along? You could grab him at current ADP or perhaps later.That's the UPSIDE of the preseason hype train, poor performances are equally overvalued. So while it's true that some of the ADP values of today will be hot commodities in the coming weeks, as many players going at fair value right now will see their ADP drop to a point where they become compelling options.
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I just look at the situation Kolb is in and unless Big Red has a brain transplant, I cant imagine Kolb not putting up very decent numbers. The Fantasy Football Calculator already has him at eight and I would assume he will move up to seven if the Chargers situation does not clear up soon. As the NFL makes more and more rules to favor the passing game, I am seeing more and more owners taking QB's in the first round. I have always subscribed to waiting on a QB but this is the first year I am feeling a little pressure to take one in the top three rounds.

 
Jeff,

I think that is a solid draft strategy. Having done 2 drafts so far I can say that these drafts can be drastically different depending on who is in your league. I expect all the new players to this format are footballguys subscribers and I bet they virtually all your read your article so the wild swings may end very soon. At least I'll have a better idea of what to expect in my last draft :confused:

By the way I think your article mirrors David's perfectly (adapting for FPC)

 
I'm worried about waiting on a QB, but that's probably because I've gotten burned on it the past two years. In one league, I had top-4 in both RB & WR production, plus Dallas Clark, and still missed the playoffs because of the QB slot. While waiting to grab a top QB is good, in theory, you can get some really inconsistent production that can kill your team. Even when I had stud days from both WRs & RBs, a 20-30 point deficit at QB is way too difficult to overcome. And I had that way too much last year with Cutler/Garrard/Carson Palmer.

It's a great strategy in theory, but the problem is it still relies on projections. And the projections of QBs with question marks aren't always that accurate, which can kill a team.

 
cincipd said:
I expect all the new players to this format are footballguys subscribers and I bet they virtually all your read your article so the wild swings may end very soon.
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I doubt it. Most people may read it, but when it comes to drafting they'll often go right back into their bad habits and make "exceptions" to what they read since they can't wait on a QB, or player X they just love too much to wait on and will grab early.
 
I have the #6 pick in non-ppr 6 pts all TDs.

I plan to try to get a QB in either the 2nd round if Manning is available or 3rd round if Romo, Schaub or Brady are available. I got hammered last year with Cutler in the 6th round.

 
-jb- said:
Out of the five, I'd be cool with Eli and Kolb. The rest would concern me.
Click to expand...
Eli and Kolb both have rough playoff schedules (wk 14 - 16):New York Giants (@Min, Phi, @GB)Philadelphia Eagles (@Dal, @NYG, Min)So don't take both. Go with one and choose a backup QB with a easier playoff schedule:San Francisco 49ers (Sea, @SD, @StL)Miami Dolphins (@NYJ, Buf, Det)
 
Note: I am not saying I disagree with Jeff's plan, but the FPC with it's dual flex allows for a lot of creativity. I think there are definitely multiple ways to do great in this contest.

My counter argument to Jeff's strategy might look something like this:

TEs are OVERVALUED. QBs are UNDERVALUED. A year ago, who was Jermichael Finley? and what had Vernon Davis done before last year? Now these guys are 2nd or 3rd round picks? Celek is also a 3rd rounder? Super sleeper Zach Miller is a 5th rounder? Sure if you want an AVERAGE team do that. But the FPC is all about swinging for the fences. Landing a team that throttles people when it counts.

What if instead of grabbing an "elite TE" you built your roster with a top 4-6 QB, studs at WR and RB (value drops because of the TE runs) and you swing for the fences looking for the next Jermichael Finley?

Grab a guy like Owen Daniels or Chris Cooley when you aren't forced to reach for the position and then grab a few of these guys at the end of the draft:

Daniel Fells, StL

Zach Miller, Jac

Shawn Nelson, Buf

Jared Cook, Ten

If one or two of these late guys hit, this could be the type of roster that cashes the check for 50 large.

 
LittlePhatty said:
-jb- said:
Out of the five, I'd be cool with Eli and Kolb. The rest would concern me.
Click to expand...
Eli and Kolb both have rough playoff schedules (wk 14 - 16):New York Giants (@Min, Phi, @GB)Philadelphia Eagles (@Dal, @NYG, Min)So don't take both. Go with one and choose a backup QB with a easier playoff schedule:San Francisco 49ers (Sea, @SD, @StL)Miami Dolphins (@NYJ, Buf, Det)
Click to expand...
Good info, thanks.
 
LittlePhatty said:
-jb- said:
Out of the five, I'd be cool with Eli and Kolb. The rest would concern me.
Click to expand...
Eli and Kolb both have rough playoff schedules (wk 14 - 16):New York Giants (@Min, Phi, @GB)Philadelphia Eagles (@Dal, @NYG, Min)So don't take both. Go with one and choose a backup QB with a easier playoff schedule:San Francisco 49ers (Sea, @SD, @StL)Miami Dolphins (@NYJ, Buf, Det)
Click to expand...
I believe Eli, Kolb and Flacco have week 8 byes...so I wouldn't want them both either.
 
So, if we focus on the "grab two QBs back-to-back" technique typically employed in The Perfect Draft , then who are most folks looking at in terms of a combo?

 
Hallwalker said:
I have the #6 pick in non-ppr 6 pts all TDs.I plan to try to get a QB in either the 2nd round if Manning is available or 3rd round if Romo, Schaub or Brady are available. I got hammered last year with Cutler in the 6th round.
Click to expand...
LOL, the article says DON"T BE THAT GUY! I love reading the perfect draft articles but I will say that there's something to be said for knowing the tendencies of your drafters. If you're in a league where you've all been in it for 10 years plus and most of the same owners are in there, then use that prior knowledge to your advantage.For example, I know that in a 14 team league (6 point Td's) that QB's go early across the board. The top ones go early, the medium range Qb's go early and even Qb2's tend to go early because owners panic. The last couple of years I've drafted a QB early (two years ago Brees and last year Rodgers) and it's paid off. Not only was I able to get a good QB before everyone else, I was able to get some quality players later in the draft, such as Brandon Marshall due to his problems in preseason etc.......this year or at least right now the WR where you could find extreme value is Sydney Rice. In 12 teamer, 1 point per reception I was able to draft him at 5.03 last night.....I know Farve may not be back, I know he may be injured and I lost my 5th round pick but to me, the risk reward is worth it at 5.03 for a player of his caliber. It seems like every year there are players like this where there's info/hype that drags a guy down for awhile. It may be legit, plus Farve won't play and I'll hate the pick, but the guy could also have a great year and on the couch one Sunday afternoon after a 50 yard bomb, you'd be saying I can't believe I got that guy in the 5th. So know your drafters, try to evaluate risk/reward (where is Ben R. represent value depending upon your league structure, those types of Q's).
 
I agree that Eli looks like a great late-ish starting QB pick. The early schedule looks good, playoff weeks kinda tough.

Ideally (right now) I would pair him with Henne, who's got some plums late in the year:

Dec. 5 CLEVELAND

Dec. 12 at N.Y. Jets

Dec. 19 BUFFALO

Dec. 26 DETROIT

 
-jb- said:
So, if we focus on the "grab two QBs back-to-back" technique typically employed in The Perfect Draft , then who are most folks looking at in terms of a combo?
Click to expand...
Chase's QBBC article is coming very soon. I will incorporate it when I see his results
 
David Dodds said:
Note: I am not saying I disagree with Jeff's plan, but the FPC with it's dual flex allows for a lot of creativity. I think there are definitely multiple ways to do great in this contest.My counter argument to Jeff's strategy might look something like this:TEs are OVERVALUED. QBs are UNDERVALUED. A year ago, who was Jermichael Finley? and what had Vernon Davis done before last year? Now these guys are 2nd or 3rd round picks? Celek is also a 3rd rounder? Super sleeper Zach Miller is a 5th rounder? Sure if you want an AVERAGE team do that. But the FPC is all about swinging for the fences. Landing a team that throttles people when it counts. What if instead of grabbing an "elite TE" you built your roster with a top 4-6 QB, studs at WR and RB (value drops because of the TE runs) and you swing for the fences looking for the next Jermichael Finley? Grab a guy like Owen Daniels or Chris Cooley when you aren't forced to reach for the position and then grab a few of these guys at the end of the draft:Daniel Fells, StLZach Miller, Jac Shawn Nelson, BufJared Cook, TenIf one or two of these late guys hit, this could be the type of roster that cashes the check for 50 large.
Click to expand...
While I don't disagree with David too much here, I definitely say that the "What you should have by the end of Round 9" statement holds pretty well. I understand that there might be some later TEs to target (and I even stated a few of them), depending on one to blow up can cause problems. I'd rather do BOTH - take TE and also take another later - and benefit my team by allowing me the option to start 3.The other point about getting one early is that - based on what I have seen and experienced - TE runs do happen early, which makes RB and WR drop and be available later than expected. That eases the would-be pain of missing out on an extra RB or WR early - value falls. Only 72 players will be selected in the first six rounds......
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
While I don't disagree with David too much here, I definitely say that the "What you should have by the end of Round 9" statement holds pretty well.
Click to expand...
I liked the article Jeff, but I disagree on this statement - when Clayton gets my article up on the RedvsBlue FBG PC draft you will see an example of why I say that.The one thing that needs more emphasis is that with the dual flex there are lots of different ways to put together teams that will have a good shot at getting into your league's playoffs and then make noise in the Championship round
 
:thumbup: on both articles. Are there any other players you would NOT target in those middle rounds? The list of targets is a great help. Process of elimination is obvious. But i know there are borderline guys you would take or not. And there must be list of "Hell No's".
 
I drafted yesterday and came out with the below (I know, I know, we drafted VERY early). However, it's funny to now read the perfect draft article from Dodds and see some of the correlations. I had some keepers mixed into this group as noted below with a K. My only issue: My QBs and my TEs share the same bye weeks. But when they became available, I felt they presented too good a value to pass on, even though there is a bye week issue. I'm gonna have to be shifty to snag players to fill those voids for those two weeks. Other than that, I think I'm perfectly set up to at least make the playoffs in this money league.

QB: Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan

RB: Michael Turner (K), Rashard Mendenhall (K), Shonn Green(K), Michael Bush, Javon Ringer

WR: Calvin Johnson(K), Greg Jennings, Steve Smith (CAR), Mike Sims Walker, Chaz Schillens, Mike Thomas (JAX), Harry Douglas

TE: John Carlson, Heath Miller

K: Mason Crosby

DEF: 49ers

Also, big props to the draft dominator. I was able to use it as a mocking tool for a couple of weeks prior, and if you are in a keeper league, mocking with the draft dominator with the keepers inserted, is a must.

 
David Dodds said:
Note: I am not saying I disagree with Jeff's plan, but the FPC with it's dual flex allows for a lot of creativity. I think there are definitely multiple ways to do great in this contest.My counter argument to Jeff's strategy might look something like this:TEs are OVERVALUED. QBs are UNDERVALUED. A year ago, who was Jermichael Finley? and what had Vernon Davis done before last year? Now these guys are 2nd or 3rd round picks? Celek is also a 3rd rounder? Super sleeper Zach Miller is a 5th rounder? Sure if you want an AVERAGE team do that. But the FPC is all about swinging for the fences. Landing a team that throttles people when it counts. What if instead of grabbing an "elite TE" you built your roster with a top 4-6 QB, studs at WR and RB (value drops because of the TE runs) and you swing for the fences looking for the next Jermichael Finley? Grab a guy like Owen Daniels or Chris Cooley when you aren't forced to reach for the position and then grab a few of these guys at the end of the draft:Daniel Fells, StLZach Miller, Jac Shawn Nelson, BufJared Cook, TenIf one or two of these late guys hit, this could be the type of roster that cashes the check for 50 large.
Click to expand...
Stellar!! I'm with Dodds 100%!
 
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
ETA on the others?
Click to expand...
Dates from last year:Perfect Draft 12 Team Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/14 Perfect Draft (14) Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/26 Perfect Draft (10) Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/26 Perfect Draft (12) Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/26 Perfect Draft (WCOFF/PPR) - Dodds - 8/29Perfect Auction - Dodds - 8/30Dates from 2008:Perfect Draft (12 Teams) - Dodds - 8/13Perfect Auction - Dodds - 8/17Perfect Draft (10 Teams) - Dodds - 8/21 Revised Perfect Draft (12 Teams) - Dodds - 8/21 Perfect Draft (14 Teams) - Dodds - 8/27 Perfect Draft (WCOFF PPR) - Dodds - 8/29
 
Lehigh98 said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
ETA on the others?
Click to expand...
Dates from last year:Perfect Draft 12 Team Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/14 Perfect Draft (14) Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/26 Perfect Draft (10) Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/26 Perfect Draft (12) Non-PPR - Dodds - 8/26 Perfect Draft (WCOFF/PPR) - Dodds - 8/29Perfect Auction - Dodds - 8/30Dates from 2008:Perfect Draft (12 Teams) - Dodds - 8/13Perfect Auction - Dodds - 8/17Perfect Draft (10 Teams) - Dodds - 8/21 Revised Perfect Draft (12 Teams) - Dodds - 8/21 Perfect Draft (14 Teams) - Dodds - 8/27 Perfect Draft (WCOFF PPR) - Dodds - 8/29
Click to expand...
And that is EXACTLY why I asked. Because you can't go based on the past, even if by posting it you are implying you can.In the past...10 team in 09: 8/2610 team in 08: 8/21____________________Big difference. Several days worth of drafts in the August 21-26 range.12 team non-PPR in 09: 8/14; revised 8/2612 team non-PPR in 08: 8/21____________________Another difference big enough that I could not speculate as to when it would be out now. So I simply asked.Auction in 09: 8/30Auction in 08: 8/17______________________About 2 weeks apart. So again, I still just don't get why this was posted. Should I be using it to determine when they will be released this year?What do you recommend...I cut the difference between the dates?I was simply asking if there was an estimated time of arrival. No biggie. Just curious as I hope it gets released before my drafts. If not, I will deal.
 
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Lehigh98 said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
About 2 weeks apart. So again, I still just don't get why this was posted. Should I be using it to determine when they will be released this year?What do you recommend...I cut the difference between the dates?
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I recommend you relax and take a deep breath.
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Just did. That helped.But seriously, I really didn't understand the point of your post. It provides no indication on when they will be released THIS year. And I was simply asking. I didn't go on the offensive or do anything like that. I simply asked if there was an ETA - ie, some type of expected release date. It could end up being the greatest FF article ever written. But if it comes out after 75% of drafts have taken place, its effectiveness is certainly diminished a little. Wouldn't you agree?Again, was just asking. Wasn't looking to start anything. So please don't make it like it was.
 
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