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U of Tennessee WR Justin Hunter (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Matt Waldman
- Start date
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
Bumporooski
Great series, very helpful to see how you evaluate film.
In terms of comps for Hunter -- elite ability, poor work ethic -- what's a typical career arc for someone like this? Isaac Bruce and Braylon Edwards come to mind for me, probably Lee Evans and Jon Baldwin too; obviously it's hard to know where anyone falls on the effort/aptitude spectrum...
In terms of comps for Hunter -- elite ability, poor work ethic -- what's a typical career arc for someone like this? Isaac Bruce and Braylon Edwards come to mind for me, probably Lee Evans and Jon Baldwin too; obviously it's hard to know where anyone falls on the effort/aptitude spectrum...
AllVolUT
Footballguy
As a UT fan, Hunter's a super talented WR but frustrating at the same time. His sophomore year in 2011 had most fans anticipating a major breakout, but a torn ACL in the 3rd game at Florida obviously held him out. He made a quick rehab and was taking apart of spring practice. His numbers this year have been good. His talent really is off the charts.
The frustrating thing with Hunter has been his lack of production in big games. He seems to struggle with more physical corners too. As Dooley's mentioned, he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct of a dominant player. He's a good kid by all accounts that I've read, but just a laid back kind of guy. Maybe that will come with maturity.
I do think all of these knocks can be corrected. If he doesn't, I think he'll be a good NFL WR, but frustrating to own. The type you sit on waiting for him to put it together. If he does correct the minor flaws, I think he can be a perennial pro-bowler.
Nice read Mr. Waldman, thanks.
The frustrating thing with Hunter has been his lack of production in big games. He seems to struggle with more physical corners too. As Dooley's mentioned, he doesn't seem to have the killer instinct of a dominant player. He's a good kid by all accounts that I've read, but just a laid back kind of guy. Maybe that will come with maturity.
I do think all of these knocks can be corrected. If he doesn't, I think he'll be a good NFL WR, but frustrating to own. The type you sit on waiting for him to put it together. If he does correct the minor flaws, I think he can be a perennial pro-bowler.
Nice read Mr. Waldman, thanks.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
[icon]
Insoxicated
Another UT homer here...
Hunter is very inconsistent right now. Im not sure he stays but he could benefit from one more year in College under a GOOD coach (not dooley). He'll miss wide open passes that hit him in the hands, then make some circus freak catch that will be on Sportscenter. Not unlike moss in that he loses focus if he's not utilized early in a game. Can "Check out".
Honestly, he might end up the 2nd best WR of this UT Class..... you guys should check out
.
(Stick through the end of the video.. some of the "highlights" are ho hum)
Hunter is very inconsistent right now. Im not sure he stays but he could benefit from one more year in College under a GOOD coach (not dooley). He'll miss wide open passes that hit him in the hands, then make some circus freak catch that will be on Sportscenter. Not unlike moss in that he loses focus if he's not utilized early in a game. Can "Check out".
Honestly, he might end up the 2nd best WR of this UT Class..... you guys should check out
.
(Stick through the end of the video.. some of the "highlights" are ho hum)
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AllVolUT
Footballguy
You're not kidding about Patterson, icon. I've personally never seen a UT athlete who's as electric with the ball in his hands as Cordarelle. It is painfully obvious he could beneit from a senior year in regards to route running.
It's a shame with the 3 talented prospects of CP, Hunter, and Bray, Dooley has zero wins to show for it. I agree that all 3 would benefit for their senior years, but I don't anticipate them staying (especially with Hunter's recent child being born).
Hunter's dropped way too many big catches this year in do-or-die scenarios...he's killed the cupcake competition though. I believe McShay had him as his #1 WR prospect coming into the year, but he's hurt his draft stock with his performance this year. How much of that is shaking off rust after his ACL is tough to say.
It's a shame with the 3 talented prospects of CP, Hunter, and Bray, Dooley has zero wins to show for it. I agree that all 3 would benefit for their senior years, but I don't anticipate them staying (especially with Hunter's recent child being born).
Hunter's dropped way too many big catches this year in do-or-die scenarios...he's killed the cupcake competition though. I believe McShay had him as his #1 WR prospect coming into the year, but he's hurt his draft stock with his performance this year. How much of that is shaking off rust after his ACL is tough to say.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Just watched Cordarrelle Patterson vs troy highlights.... OMG...dudes moves are insane.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
I've brought up Patterson a couple of times in the CFB thread. He's obviously rawer than Hunter and I'm guessing has baggage that forced him to go Juco but he's an amazing physical talent.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Any opinion on Marquess Wilson, Waldman? He's similar to Hunter in that he's long, fast, and is a hands catcher, though he probably doesn't have the NFL ready body like Hunter, he has produced better in his college career.
cstu
Footballguy
What's concerning to me is that he's racked up most of his yards and TD's against lower competition. I took a look at how he did against ranked teams and he's never had more than 90 yards and only scored a TD once - against Florida his freshman year.
BTW, Patterson didn't have many yards against ranked teams either but scored 2 TD's.
BTW, Patterson didn't have many yards against ranked teams either but scored 2 TD's.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
This, watch his first couple of games of 2011. The only gamble here is upstairs, a legit concern though.
bonesman
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
He's so incredibly thin. I'm more worried about Hunter getting hurt than I am Austin.
az_prof
Footballguy
Moss was thin too. That does not concern me at all. And if you have the frame, like he does, it isn't that hard to add 10 pounds.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Hunter isn't Moss. I'm not saying his stick thinness makes him useless. I'm saying its a red flag.
jurb26
Footballguy
I may be in the minority, but I think body type for WRs are virtually meaningless. The only exception to that is height IMO. To be a true WR1 i think you almost need to be 6' or taller. If you look through all the guys who are successful in the NFL, there is no consistent frame what so ever. As pointed out, Moss dominated the position perhaps more than anyone in the history of the game and he was rail thin most of his career. AJ Green is also very thin and many here said this was a concern for him coming into the NFL. Other guys like Burress, D. Jackson, Lloyd and H. Moore also come to mind as WRs who lacked bulk but were still able to have success to a lesser extent to Moss or Green. Playing against physical DBs is about technique, not a perfect body. That is what is concerning to me about Hunter. Physically he's got what it takes. Perfecting technique is something that requires unparalleled work ethic, attention to detail and a moxie for the game. I'm not sure Hunter has any of those things. Moss and Green did/do. It's an easy trap to fall into when you are clearly the best athlete on the field, any field you take, all your life. Getting by on just that physical ability is possible for exceptional athletes even at a level as high as SEC D1 football. We'll just have to wait and see what Hunter is made of. Will he become A. Bryant or D. Bryant? Both guys who IMO had similar issues as Hunter coming out of college.
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Matt Waldman
Footballguy
A.J. Green is virtually the same dimensions as Hunter.
Matt Waldman
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
Yes, but they play very different on the field. Did Hunter ever have a game against a top team the way Green did vs. Auburn (9/164/2)?
Tough comparison, with Hunter missing almost his entire sophomore year, then still rounding his ACL into shape last year.
AJ (outside his early suspension) was relatively healthy during his Georgia tenure and did not miss games...
MAC_32
Footballguy
It wasn't so much the 16 catch performance as much as it was how he played throughout September before blowing out his knee.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not bending over backwards to get this guy., he's plan C for me if I can get a late round 1 pick and Lattimore + Michael don't make it. I do think he's the best WR pick after Tavon Austin in this class though, Keenan Allen would have been but tough getting past that draft day tumble. Relegating him to plan D, but would rather get him or Robert Woods (despite my lack of faith in his QB) in the pick 14-17 range than pick Hopkins or Patterson a half-full round earlier. I like Hopkins, just don't see the upside to justify a round 1 pick. Patterson has too much bust potential for my liking.
cusefan115
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
Yep, same tier. I think he could fill the Mike Wallace role well. A part of me actually prefers him to Woods simply because I do not trust Manuel at all. Really bummed when I saw Woods get drafted, expected to target him everywhere. Post draft I traded to a spot in which if he was there it's because he fell and could justify the value instead of staying put and just picking him as I was thinking pre draft.
cusefan115
Footballguy
Makes sense. I wound up taking Wheaton over Woods in my rookie draft. I was sort of looking for wr with some upside. Neither really fit the bill but I guess Wheaton appears more explosive so I went with him.
Hunter hasn't shown much against the best competition(Florida, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Oregon, South Carolina) and that's my biggest concern. Out of 10 games vs those teams he has exactly one 100 yard game and 1 TD. Total numbers 29 receptions 530 yards 1 TD, averaging 2.9 rec/53 yards/.1 TD.
Furthermore, lets look more in depth at his stats.
Vs Cupcakes(FCS/Non-BCS conferences) (Georgia St/Akron/Troy/Montana/UAB/Tenn Martin/Memphis)
34 receptions 628 yards 9 TD(7 games)
Vs BCS Conference teams
72 receptions 1184 yards 9 TD(20 games)
Per game averages:
Vs Cupcakes 4.8 rec 89.7 yards 1.2 TD
VS BCS teams 3.6 rec 59.2 yards .45 TD
To compare, Kendall Wright(his new teammate) didn't have one single game his senior year at or below Hunter's averages vs BCS teams.
cusefan115
Footballguy
That's the other side of the coin, along with: he was a freshman, he was recovering from a knee injury, etc. At some point though, he is what he is. If I had to gamble, I'll go against the guy that put up his stats vs cupcakes and didn't show much versus top tier teams.
bonesman
Footballguy
He was wide open on a few plays against Georgia where Bray just didn't hit him with a quality target.
cstu
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
I'm not a big fan but I'm willing to gamble on the 6-4 guy who runs a sub 4.4. It's simplistic but the NFL is a matchup league and if Hunter is a matchup problem for opposing defenses. He's certainly a project but I'd rather roll the dice on him that someone like Wheaton who is good but lacks upside.
I can see him over Wheaton, just not over Patterson/Hopkins where some owners are debating.
MAC_32
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
All 3 of them usually go before Lattimore and Michael, so it's really a non-issue for me. Felt all along the value at WR would be later in day 2 and that applies to fantasy as well. Get those guys for cheaper, not the top 50 picks.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
You're not a fan of Hunter. It's understandable. His game film from 2012 wasn't as good as before he tore his ACL. If you believe what real NFL scouts have to say, (and I do), there is absolutely reason to compare Hunter with Hopkins and Patterson. Here's Bob McGinns collection of quotes from NFL scouts on each of these guys. (Pre draft)2. CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, Tennessee (6-2, 217, 4.34, 1) - Junior-college transfer from Rock Hill, S.C. "Really competitive, really athletic, really raw," one scout said. "When he catches the ball he never gives up on a run. He might drive people crazy because he will back up, he will run laterally, he will do whatever. I thought he caught it well." Played just one season of major-college football before declaring a year early. Caught 46 passes for 778 yards (16.9) and five TDs. "No, heavens no," exclaimed another scout when asked if Patterson was as good as Dez Bryant. "I don't know that he's not as athletic as Dez, but Dez is freakish strength-wise. He could be really good but he's not very smart." Should be a threat returning kickoffs while learning how to play on offense. "He's the best returner I've seen since Devin Hester," a third scout said. "He's got a background that's a little bit scary but, boy, is he explosive."3. KEENAN ALLEN, California (6-2, 210, 4.55, 1-2) - Third-year junior from Greensboro, N.C. "Not as dynamic as Hakeem Nicks but he's a good player," one scout said. "He's big, catches the ball and is smart. Not a big-play threat by any stretch, which is what Hakeem gives you." Golden Bears' all-time reception leader with 205. Gained 2,570 yards (12.5) and scored 17 TDs. "Very smooth for a big man," another scout said. "Good hands. Good athlete." Suffered a posterior cruciate knee ligament injury in November and, in a workout April 9, ran 40 yards in just 4.71. "Complete player," a third scout said. "His half-brother (Zach Maynard) was the quarterback and he sucked. Just an awful player. It probably cost him six or seven touchdowns and 30 more receptions. He compares to Michael Floyd from a year ago."4. ROBERT WOODS, Southern California (6-0 ½, 200, 4.45, 1-2) - Third-year junior set the Trojans' record for receptions with 252. "He and Patterson are probably the two best after the catch," one scout said. Gained 2,930 yards (11.6) and scored 32 TDs. "He was limited by comparison because of (Marqise) Lee," another scout said. "Good avoiding bump. Gets on the cornerback quickly. Quick out of his cuts. Lays out well. He's a speed and quick guy." USC coach Lane Kiffin compared his playing style to all-time great Jerry Rice. "Seems to me everything he does has been manufactured," a third scout said. "There's something missing with him." From Carson, Calif.5. DeANDRE HOPKINS, Clemson (6-1, 212, 4.54, 2) - Third-year junior rewrote the Tigers' record book. "Real natural receiver," one scout said. "Great ball skills. Natural route runner. Competes in a crowd. Got size, got quickness. He makes himself easy to throw to. He can make plays with the ball. Not the best tester in the world." Finished with 206 catches for 3,020 yards (14.7) and 27 TDs. "Possession guy all the way," another scout said. "But he's got damn good hands, he's big and he's a great kid." Concentrated on basketball in high school, even playing seven games for Clemson in 2010-'11 season. From Central, S.C. "I'm not entirely sold on his hands," a third scout said. "Pretty good route runner. Not a speed burner. Not special."6. JUSTIN HUNTER, Tennessee (6-4, 198, 4.40, 2) - Third-year junior. "Probably the most physically gifted of any of the receivers," one scout said. "You go back and look at sophomore film, he's special. Long arms. Lean body. Ripped up. He's really got good hands, too, but didn't show it as well this year." Blew out an ACL in Game 3 of 2011 and wasn't as good in '12. "From a skill set, he's probably the No. 1 (WR)," another scout said. "He just drops the ball a little bit too much. At the end of the day, Hunter could be the best receiver in that class if he can put it all together." Finished with 106 catches for 1,812 yards (17.1) and 18 TDs. "He short-arms balls in traffic at times," a third scout said. "Straight-line speed. Long strider. I question his strength and aggressiveness as a receiver and blocker. He appears to have deep speed but he wasn't explosive." Out of Virginia Beach, Va. Exceptional vertical jump (40 ½ inches) and broad jump (11-6).The Titans reportedly had a high first round grade on Hunter. Add that to the fact that all three of Hopkins, Patterson and Hunter went within 8 picks of one another, and I think it comes down to personal preference between the three.
Hoot&HoLLer
Footballguy
Good report on why Titans selected Hunter.
http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2013/5/7/4305426/justin-hunter-fixing-#####
One of the hallmarks of a good executive and leader is the ability to identify problems, and implement solutions. Sounds simple enough, but often times at the highest levels of corporations these details are overlooked. No doubt all companies have a goal to improve. Yet, improvement is subjective without tangible goals and benchmarks. And, you can't have those things without first being honest about the problems in place.
You'd hope that every GM understood this, but, often times, it's not so clear. You never want to draft exclusively for need, as they ends up pigeonholing yourself into a limited talent pool. However, as a team tries to remove themselves from that philosophy and towards a pure BPA approach, you often find yourself building a collection of good talent, but not a team with direction. These philosophies are, of course, blurred in most cases. And, without a clear set of goals, the pressure and pace of the draft can often leave a team exiting the draft with a hodgepodge of players that looked good on their board at the time of the pick, but don't accomplish the goals the team had hoped. An example would be waiting on a player to fall to another pick, or avoiding "reaching" on a player even though he's rated the highest on your board and fills an important need.
Ruston Webster doesn't have this problem.
"For us, (Hunter) was on a different level grade-wise* than the rest of the players on the board," Webster said. "It was not even really close for us. With him sitting there we just saw this great opportunity to get a really talented wide receiver with a lot of upside. That was really it. We liked Justin Hunter a lot. We explored some things last night as it got into the latter parts of the draft. He was a target for us."
A Commitment to Building an Offense
2012 is a difficult season to evaluate as a Titans fan. There were numerous problems (many related to injury), and, for the most part, those are beyond the scope of this article. Two issues, however, help us understand the offensive direction this team was taking through the draft and free agency: interior pressure in the run and pass game and a need to threaten more on the perimeter in the vertical passing game. The first issue was addressed by acquiring the best guard talent available in free agency and the draft. The second (a problem that may have been thought of as more of a luxury pick) was acquired by trading up into the top of the second round. As Biddle writes, this philosophy was a departure from the Fisher era:
"(Heimerdinger) would be excited,'' Munchak said. "You're right, the offense for some reason it was about the third day (before) we started getting picks. I tried to get an offensive lineman for a lot of years myself and I had to become a head coach to get an offensive lineman drafted in the first round.''
With the first two draft picks being offensive players, defensive coordinator Jerry Gray and assistant Gregg Williams found themselves playing a waiting game.
"I think we're doing what is best for the football team,'' Munchak said. "This is a team thing. (Gray and Williams) realize that if we get more and more talent on offense, then we better stay on the field for 40 minutes and let them play 20 minutes, and all of a sudden they're better coaches. And vice-versa. If we load up on defense, then they ought to give up three points and we win, 7-3.''
While I have a fundamental disagreement about the time of possession metric, I think the basic idea here is correct. In general, championship teams are either elite on offense or defense. Sometimes both, but the odds of making a playoff run without being excellent on one side of the ball are slim. Again, that's one of those things that should be painfully obvious, yet we constantly see teams focusing on fixing all the problems all at once. The better strategy would be to work at being excellent on one side of the ball and then work on rebuilding the other side of the ball. While Munchak notes that the defense "ought to give up 3 points" if we load up defensively, I'd say those days are behind us. In recent years, we've seen more of a trend that excellent offensive teams can carry average defensive units, but the opposite isn't nearly as true. The personnel moves recently give me hope that this front office shares this philosophy. By all accounts they are working to build a top tier offensive unit.
All Tall Receivers are Not Created Equal
"Comparisons are tough for a player like that," Titans director of scouting Blake Beddingfield said. "Hes 6-foot-4, 195 pounds and runs a 4.37 (in the 40-yard dash). The comparables are tough just because there are very few of those guys. Its not compared to most people that are 6-4 and 195. Its tough to compare those kinds of guys. Hes a rare athlete. He has very nice physical traits that add on speed and his range. Yet he is programmed. Hes played in a good system for a good offensive coordinator. Hes had other talent around him and a quarterback that has a pro arm."
Fans often want to lump prospects together. In that regard, Hunter might be viewed as just another tall receiver. As you dig into the data, the number of receivers who are 6'4"+ and run sub 4.45 40's are exceedingly rare.
NFL Combine Data has aggregated this information since 1999. Over that period:
Receivers 6'4" or taller: 62
Among 6'4"+, the number that have run sub 4.45: 7
Among that group that has a vertical over 38": 4 - Justin Hunter, Tyrone Calico, Stephen Hill, Calvin Johnson
The low hanging fruit would be to dismiss Calico, and point out Hill's rookie struggles. Those points may or may not have merit. It's not what is important here. The point is what the Titans scout references above.
Since 1999, there have been 484 receivers drafted. Of those prospects, only .8% have had this kind of skill set. Put another way, if you were to randomly select 100 receivers over the past 15 years, odds are that not one of them would have the skill set that Justin Hunter does.
Understanding Where Justin Hunter Fits
Heading into the draft, I'd say most Titans fans would have considered our receiving corps a strength. Kenny Britt looked like he was returning to his former self (in a good way). Our rookie receiver, Wright, led all Titans receivers in receptions. And, Washington, our leading receiver by yardage, maintained an explosive Y/R of 16.2 working from the slot. Despite these things, Nate Washington will find himself as the odd man out.
This is a big play that goes for a 46 yard gain, despite being the "wrong read". The Colts show a two high look but roll to man under with a single high safety. Protection picks up the six man pressure well (something we should expect to see more in 2013). Nate works from the slot and breaks across the face of both safeties. He's the "right" read here. Kenny runs a go route, beats his man, commands attention from the single high safety, and still makes the catch.
What interests me on this play is Kendall Wright. He runs a comeback route, and fails to get any separation. Given the result, this isn't really a problem, but big picture it's an issue if Wright were to stay primarily at the Z. Wright isn't enough of a technician yet to win consistently on the outside, nor is he the type of athlete that's going to win naturally on talent alone. He can play all three spots, but he fits in the slot. I firmly believe that he can do everything Nate Washington can do and then some. He's got more wiggle, and threatens more with the ball in his hands.
Now, what if Justin Hunter is thrown into this corps? Hunter takes over Wright's spot at the Z, and Wright slides into the slot. I don't think this team skips a beat with Wright replacing Washington at the slot position. And, on this play, he'll find the same open space from the slot. However, Hunter commands a different level of respect. His vertical skill set is on an entirely different level. Not only his ability to beat you in a straight line, but also the leaping capacity to go up and over defenders. Despite other issues in Hunter's game, he's got the vertical skill set in spades. It brings to mind an article on the Seahawks scouting heading into the draft:
From what I understand, you can have a lot of tension between scouts and coaches and front office when scouts give high grades to players but the coaching staff or front office wants nothing to do with that guy. Carroll's philosophy is to find out what a player does well and then fit him into the system and allow him to do it.
"It gives you more flexibility to keep guys alive," Southwest region scout Matt Berry told Farnsworth. "If a guy can play, that gives you hope that they're going to find a way to make that guy's skill set fit with everybody else. So you try not to pick apart the things they can't do. You keep your focus on what they can do."
Justin Hunter may turn out to be a one trick pony. In many ways, Randy Moss had the same "problem". It turns out, though, that this one trick is arguably the most dangerous and valuable of them all at the receiver position. Even if Hunter is only targeted a handful of times a game, the vertical skill set commands respect from defensive coordinators. They can bring 6 man pressure, but that leaves either Britt or Hunter in single coverage on the edges. Each of them more than capable of dominating undersized corners on the way to the endzone. The possibility of getting vertical on each side of the field will force more two high looks, which results in better numbers in the box and a (theoretically) more productive running game.
Reconciling the Additions with Improvement in 2013
With the mess we saw in 2012, the deductive leap from bad offense -> good offense with just a few additions may seem like a stretch, but that's where I find myself today. Re-visiting the 2012 tape, I saw a different player in Locker before and after the injury. That issue was magnified by the slew of injuries this team endured across the offensive line; a unit that's interior was already below average when healthy. Locker has his issues. Read progression and pocket awareness/mobility being the two that need the most improvement. But, if we're being honest about it, we were asking Jake to make chicken salad out of chicken &*^% last year. The lack of an interior line killed the run game and the vertical passing game. Further, the only vertical threat we had for most of the year was up the seam.
Looking ahead to 2013, the tools are there if our triggerman can take the next step. The run game is bound to improve. And, while CJ has constant issues creating on his own, there's no denying his explosiveness when the holes are there. An improved run game can only help what appears on paper to be a threatening group of receivers in the vertical passing game. The additions to the interior of the offensive line provide a base that will allow this offense to do the conventional things an offense should be able to do. It's the drafting of Justin Hunter, and his rare skillset, that could take this offense to another level.
*I remember immediately after the trade details were released that there was some ridicule over the terms. By nearly all accounts, the Titans gave up "too much". I found the judgements silly, if only because they were entirely too premature. At the end of the day, draft picks amount to draft day capital. Resources by which a team can use to acquire commodities to build their organizations. In a competitive scenario and efficient marketplace, prices are going to get driven up. These environments produce higher values for those selling into them. What's interesting about the draft is that, while most teams have relatively similar values on the picks being traded, the commodities being acquired vary widely in value based on team need, scheme, and scouting. The Titans clearly had conviction in the talent, and paid an "over market" price by the draft value matrices that draftniks treat as gospel. But, if Hunter pans out into a top 10 talent (a grade the Titans may have had on him), then I think the value is just fine.
http://www.musiccitymiracles.com/2013/5/7/4305426/justin-hunter-fixing-#####
One of the hallmarks of a good executive and leader is the ability to identify problems, and implement solutions. Sounds simple enough, but often times at the highest levels of corporations these details are overlooked. No doubt all companies have a goal to improve. Yet, improvement is subjective without tangible goals and benchmarks. And, you can't have those things without first being honest about the problems in place.
You'd hope that every GM understood this, but, often times, it's not so clear. You never want to draft exclusively for need, as they ends up pigeonholing yourself into a limited talent pool. However, as a team tries to remove themselves from that philosophy and towards a pure BPA approach, you often find yourself building a collection of good talent, but not a team with direction. These philosophies are, of course, blurred in most cases. And, without a clear set of goals, the pressure and pace of the draft can often leave a team exiting the draft with a hodgepodge of players that looked good on their board at the time of the pick, but don't accomplish the goals the team had hoped. An example would be waiting on a player to fall to another pick, or avoiding "reaching" on a player even though he's rated the highest on your board and fills an important need.
Ruston Webster doesn't have this problem.
"For us, (Hunter) was on a different level grade-wise* than the rest of the players on the board," Webster said. "It was not even really close for us. With him sitting there we just saw this great opportunity to get a really talented wide receiver with a lot of upside. That was really it. We liked Justin Hunter a lot. We explored some things last night as it got into the latter parts of the draft. He was a target for us."
A Commitment to Building an Offense
2012 is a difficult season to evaluate as a Titans fan. There were numerous problems (many related to injury), and, for the most part, those are beyond the scope of this article. Two issues, however, help us understand the offensive direction this team was taking through the draft and free agency: interior pressure in the run and pass game and a need to threaten more on the perimeter in the vertical passing game. The first issue was addressed by acquiring the best guard talent available in free agency and the draft. The second (a problem that may have been thought of as more of a luxury pick) was acquired by trading up into the top of the second round. As Biddle writes, this philosophy was a departure from the Fisher era:
"(Heimerdinger) would be excited,'' Munchak said. "You're right, the offense for some reason it was about the third day (before) we started getting picks. I tried to get an offensive lineman for a lot of years myself and I had to become a head coach to get an offensive lineman drafted in the first round.''
With the first two draft picks being offensive players, defensive coordinator Jerry Gray and assistant Gregg Williams found themselves playing a waiting game.
"I think we're doing what is best for the football team,'' Munchak said. "This is a team thing. (Gray and Williams) realize that if we get more and more talent on offense, then we better stay on the field for 40 minutes and let them play 20 minutes, and all of a sudden they're better coaches. And vice-versa. If we load up on defense, then they ought to give up three points and we win, 7-3.''
While I have a fundamental disagreement about the time of possession metric, I think the basic idea here is correct. In general, championship teams are either elite on offense or defense. Sometimes both, but the odds of making a playoff run without being excellent on one side of the ball are slim. Again, that's one of those things that should be painfully obvious, yet we constantly see teams focusing on fixing all the problems all at once. The better strategy would be to work at being excellent on one side of the ball and then work on rebuilding the other side of the ball. While Munchak notes that the defense "ought to give up 3 points" if we load up defensively, I'd say those days are behind us. In recent years, we've seen more of a trend that excellent offensive teams can carry average defensive units, but the opposite isn't nearly as true. The personnel moves recently give me hope that this front office shares this philosophy. By all accounts they are working to build a top tier offensive unit.
All Tall Receivers are Not Created Equal
"Comparisons are tough for a player like that," Titans director of scouting Blake Beddingfield said. "Hes 6-foot-4, 195 pounds and runs a 4.37 (in the 40-yard dash). The comparables are tough just because there are very few of those guys. Its not compared to most people that are 6-4 and 195. Its tough to compare those kinds of guys. Hes a rare athlete. He has very nice physical traits that add on speed and his range. Yet he is programmed. Hes played in a good system for a good offensive coordinator. Hes had other talent around him and a quarterback that has a pro arm."
Fans often want to lump prospects together. In that regard, Hunter might be viewed as just another tall receiver. As you dig into the data, the number of receivers who are 6'4"+ and run sub 4.45 40's are exceedingly rare.
NFL Combine Data has aggregated this information since 1999. Over that period:
Receivers 6'4" or taller: 62
Among 6'4"+, the number that have run sub 4.45: 7
Among that group that has a vertical over 38": 4 - Justin Hunter, Tyrone Calico, Stephen Hill, Calvin Johnson
The low hanging fruit would be to dismiss Calico, and point out Hill's rookie struggles. Those points may or may not have merit. It's not what is important here. The point is what the Titans scout references above.
Since 1999, there have been 484 receivers drafted. Of those prospects, only .8% have had this kind of skill set. Put another way, if you were to randomly select 100 receivers over the past 15 years, odds are that not one of them would have the skill set that Justin Hunter does.
Understanding Where Justin Hunter Fits
Heading into the draft, I'd say most Titans fans would have considered our receiving corps a strength. Kenny Britt looked like he was returning to his former self (in a good way). Our rookie receiver, Wright, led all Titans receivers in receptions. And, Washington, our leading receiver by yardage, maintained an explosive Y/R of 16.2 working from the slot. Despite these things, Nate Washington will find himself as the odd man out.
This is a big play that goes for a 46 yard gain, despite being the "wrong read". The Colts show a two high look but roll to man under with a single high safety. Protection picks up the six man pressure well (something we should expect to see more in 2013). Nate works from the slot and breaks across the face of both safeties. He's the "right" read here. Kenny runs a go route, beats his man, commands attention from the single high safety, and still makes the catch.
What interests me on this play is Kendall Wright. He runs a comeback route, and fails to get any separation. Given the result, this isn't really a problem, but big picture it's an issue if Wright were to stay primarily at the Z. Wright isn't enough of a technician yet to win consistently on the outside, nor is he the type of athlete that's going to win naturally on talent alone. He can play all three spots, but he fits in the slot. I firmly believe that he can do everything Nate Washington can do and then some. He's got more wiggle, and threatens more with the ball in his hands.
Now, what if Justin Hunter is thrown into this corps? Hunter takes over Wright's spot at the Z, and Wright slides into the slot. I don't think this team skips a beat with Wright replacing Washington at the slot position. And, on this play, he'll find the same open space from the slot. However, Hunter commands a different level of respect. His vertical skill set is on an entirely different level. Not only his ability to beat you in a straight line, but also the leaping capacity to go up and over defenders. Despite other issues in Hunter's game, he's got the vertical skill set in spades. It brings to mind an article on the Seahawks scouting heading into the draft:
From what I understand, you can have a lot of tension between scouts and coaches and front office when scouts give high grades to players but the coaching staff or front office wants nothing to do with that guy. Carroll's philosophy is to find out what a player does well and then fit him into the system and allow him to do it.
"It gives you more flexibility to keep guys alive," Southwest region scout Matt Berry told Farnsworth. "If a guy can play, that gives you hope that they're going to find a way to make that guy's skill set fit with everybody else. So you try not to pick apart the things they can't do. You keep your focus on what they can do."
Justin Hunter may turn out to be a one trick pony. In many ways, Randy Moss had the same "problem". It turns out, though, that this one trick is arguably the most dangerous and valuable of them all at the receiver position. Even if Hunter is only targeted a handful of times a game, the vertical skill set commands respect from defensive coordinators. They can bring 6 man pressure, but that leaves either Britt or Hunter in single coverage on the edges. Each of them more than capable of dominating undersized corners on the way to the endzone. The possibility of getting vertical on each side of the field will force more two high looks, which results in better numbers in the box and a (theoretically) more productive running game.
Reconciling the Additions with Improvement in 2013
With the mess we saw in 2012, the deductive leap from bad offense -> good offense with just a few additions may seem like a stretch, but that's where I find myself today. Re-visiting the 2012 tape, I saw a different player in Locker before and after the injury. That issue was magnified by the slew of injuries this team endured across the offensive line; a unit that's interior was already below average when healthy. Locker has his issues. Read progression and pocket awareness/mobility being the two that need the most improvement. But, if we're being honest about it, we were asking Jake to make chicken salad out of chicken &*^% last year. The lack of an interior line killed the run game and the vertical passing game. Further, the only vertical threat we had for most of the year was up the seam.
Looking ahead to 2013, the tools are there if our triggerman can take the next step. The run game is bound to improve. And, while CJ has constant issues creating on his own, there's no denying his explosiveness when the holes are there. An improved run game can only help what appears on paper to be a threatening group of receivers in the vertical passing game. The additions to the interior of the offensive line provide a base that will allow this offense to do the conventional things an offense should be able to do. It's the drafting of Justin Hunter, and his rare skillset, that could take this offense to another level.
*I remember immediately after the trade details were released that there was some ridicule over the terms. By nearly all accounts, the Titans gave up "too much". I found the judgements silly, if only because they were entirely too premature. At the end of the day, draft picks amount to draft day capital. Resources by which a team can use to acquire commodities to build their organizations. In a competitive scenario and efficient marketplace, prices are going to get driven up. These environments produce higher values for those selling into them. What's interesting about the draft is that, while most teams have relatively similar values on the picks being traded, the commodities being acquired vary widely in value based on team need, scheme, and scouting. The Titans clearly had conviction in the talent, and paid an "over market" price by the draft value matrices that draftniks treat as gospel. But, if Hunter pans out into a top 10 talent (a grade the Titans may have had on him), then I think the value is just fine.
cstu
Footballguy
Hunter - 196 lbs.
Calico - 223 lbs.
Hill - 215 lbs.
Calvin - 239 lbs.
There's no doubt that Hunter is a rare talent, but how does he test in the 40 and vertical with 20 more pounds on him? What makes Calvin amazing is that he can do what he does at 239. Hill is up there with a 4.28 at 215. Calico was another incredible physical specimen.
I don't put Hunter in their league and have his comp as Sidney Rice.
To take it further how many in this unique skillset have had a FF impact? 1/3. How many selected outside of top 5 picks? 0 How many that are 6'4/4.45/38 vertical/below 230 lbs have made a FF impact? 0
You can break things down however you want to make them see what you want.
I broke down Justin Hunter's entire college career in stats above, no bias/no opinions in that, and it shows a significant dropoff when he faces big time conferences/good teams.
jurb26
Footballguy
Odd that the frame of reference goes back to 1999, just one year before we get to Moss. Moss, not a top 20 pick, only 205 lbs, yet perhaps the best WR ever. Moss' addition to the list suddenly makes the horribly success rate of these guys swing much more favorably.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
In all seriousness, don't you think taking college stats from the year after Hunter tore his ACL to project his future as a NFL WR is foolhardy?
To take it further how many in this unique skillset have had a FF impact? 1/3. How many selected outside of top 5 picks? 0 How many that are 6'4/4.45/38 vertical/below 230 lbs have made a FF impact? 0
You can break things down however you want to make them see what you want.
I broke down Justin Hunter's entire college career in stats above, no bias/no opinions in that, and it shows a significant dropoff when he faces big time conferences/good teams.
Clearly NFL scouts felt a lot differently about his prospects than you did.
And for the record, the guy you like so much in Patterson caught 23 passes vs the SEC in his only season at Tennessee. Which equates to less than 60% of Hunter's catches last year. Not that I really think that means anything, but it does put Hunters' stats into perspective.
Dolt_Cretin
Footballguy
To me, these are the salient points in this discussion - are any of these guys the complete package right now? No. Is there bust risk? Absolutely. But the upside is definitely there with Hunter, no reason to rule him out or to drop him out of the first round of rookie drafts, imo.Kitrick Taylor said:
Don Quixote
Footballguy
I think Hunter's value is relative to the team drafting them. I've had teams with 4-5 WR2/3's, but no WR1. I've also had teams with a top WR1, but poor depth behind him. I think Hunter is a good fit for the former; drafting Robert Woods is not going to add value to that lineup. But I think Woods might be better for the latter, since he's a bit less risky and the team is just looking for someone to plug in as a WR2.
bonesman
Footballguy
Here was an interesting back and forth about Hunter in another thread with some more examples of some of the hand positioning things Waldman was talking about.
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-path-to-the-draft/0ap2000000154393/2013-Combine-workout-Justin-Hunter
Which is interesting because he didn't have any drops our double catches but he does kind of show a lack of body awareness on the last catch where instead of planting inbounds and turning upfield he turns the wrong way and goes out of bounds and then figures out where he's at and goes upfield. I can see how maybe you'd get a little turned around catching passes from both sides but c'mon.
Several of those pics are from his gauntlet run at the combine:Xue said:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-path-to-the-draft/0ap2000000154393/2013-Combine-workout-Justin-Hunter
Which is interesting because he didn't have any drops our double catches but he does kind of show a lack of body awareness on the last catch where instead of planting inbounds and turning upfield he turns the wrong way and goes out of bounds and then figures out where he's at and goes upfield. I can see how maybe you'd get a little turned around catching passes from both sides but c'mon.
az_prof
Footballguy
I've watched all his highlights and to be honest, I don't know what this talk about catching technique is about. He has fine technique. Sometimes you can over analyze, and people are over analyzing Hunter. Obviously TN disagrees because they traded away quite a bit to move up and take him.
Dolt_Cretin
Footballguy
"I've watched all his highlights and to be honest, I don't know what this talk about catching technique is about. He has fine technique. Sometimes you can over analyze, and people are over analyzing Hunter. Obviously TN disagrees because they traded away quite a bit to move up and take him."
Although, to be fair...TEN is a poorly run organization who would absolutely draft a local university star just because he is local in order to sell tickets...
Although, to be fair...TEN is a poorly run organization who would absolutely draft a local university star just because he is local in order to sell tickets...
1) I posted all of Hunter's college stats, I didn't cherry pick anything. Yes stats after an injury aren't great, but it's all we have currently. Hunter didn't perform well in the SEC and certainly didn't against college football elite. Which do you think he'll face in the NFL?In all seriousness, don't you think taking college stats from the year after Hunter tore his ACL to project his future as a NFL WR is foolhardy?
To take it further how many in this unique skillset have had a FF impact? 1/3. How many selected outside of top 5 picks? 0 How many that are 6'4/4.45/38 vertical/below 230 lbs have made a FF impact? 0
You can break things down however you want to make them see what you want.
I broke down Justin Hunter's entire college career in stats above, no bias/no opinions in that, and it shows a significant dropoff when he faces big time conferences/good teams.
Clearly NFL scouts felt a lot differently about his prospects than you did.
And for the record, the guy you like so much in Patterson caught 23 passes vs the SEC in his only season at Tennessee. Which equates to less than 60% of Hunter's catches last year. Not that I really think that means anything, but it does put Hunters' stats into perspective.
2) Why do NFL scouts feel a lot differently about Hunter than me? FF vs NFL is much different
3) Patterson isn't foolproof, i'm not pounding the table for the guy, but he's a much better bet than Hunter. Patterson also had 33% more receiving TDs in the SEC than Hunter, despite less targets/receptions/yards. I'm also unsure of how you can make the injury excuses for Hunter, but not give Patterson a pass for transferring from a JUCO?
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msommer
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
which guys are you targeting outside the top 50
