SaintsInDome2006 said:
This is a problem for Obama because why else would they have spent so much effort shoehorning this into the bogus video claim?
These things do have an effect, even if presidents are not deposed.
Nixon was deposed but they had LIVE tape on the guy, no way that happens here.
They may have emails on Obama & Co. though.
These things do have an electoral effect:
- Iraq War - Bush Jr. & GOP ended up losing Congress and the WH 2006-08 and the effects are still being felt. Part of it was the handling of the war itself post-victory, but much of it had to do with mistrust over WMD. Issue: Lies.
- Bush's 'no new taxes pledge' broken - well he went down in a party schism. Issue: Lies.
- Clinton's subborning of perjury (aka Lewinskygate) - Clinton was impeached and lost control of Congress, with a few variations a Southern quasi-Republican whose presidency people of both parties still seem pretty happy with to this day, maybe because the Congress for once took the reins back from the imperial presidency. Issue: Lies.
- Carter & 'who lost Iran' - in came Reagan. Issue: incompetence.
- Truman & 'who lost China' - Truman hung on for reelection but the Congress went heavily Republican. Issue: incompetence.
- Nixon & Watergate - delayed the GOP surge and brought in Carter. Issue: Lies.
Obama won with fewer votes and fewer electoral votes in his 2nd term, the only time that has happened in modern history, and he got a very big boost by the media being hyperfocused on Sandy in the closing week, with a slight assist from Candy Crowley. He has a health care bill that is a fiscal albatross in 2014 and which he had to pass with the promise of an executive order for Congreesmen on the fence because of the abortion issue, and he has an immigration law that was done by executive order with no Congressional approval. He has no other agenda victories.
Possible lies and incompetence arise here. Most likely Obama and his political team felt they had to shield themselves from events in Libya in order to secure victory in Novemer 2012. It's sad but that's what happened, now whether he really needed to do that I don't know but they clearly felt that way. He's gotten through this one time before with the selling of the Senate seat by Blagojevich, I am not sure he can just keep tripping around like this. Of course he won't be forced out of office but there will be damage and there already has been, just look how his team is acting.
Strongly disagree with your analysis:
1. The Iraq War hurt Republicans because the public didn't see a positive outcome and it went on and on, like Vietnam. The lies involved in getting into it in the first place were a peripheral issue, not a primary reason for the change in public attitude.
2. The main reason Bush Sr. lost in 1992 was not because of "no new taxes", but because the public rarely allows more than 12 years of the same political party to hold the presidency. Usually it's only 8. After that, there is a yearn for something new.
3. Clinton did not lose control of Congress over Lewinsky. Clinton lost control in 1994; Lewinsky happened in 1998.
4. Carter lost in 1980 for 3 reasons: inflation, the great charisma of Ronald Reagan, and Iran. Of the 3, Iran was the least important.
5. The Democrats lost the Congress in 1946, not 1948, when "Who lost China?" became an issue. The main reason they lost was because the public, after 14 years of government control by Democrats, wanted a change.
6. Nixon was forced out by Watergate, but in all likelihood a Democrat would have been elected President in 1976 anyhow, after 8 years of a Republican.
So in conclusion I really dispute the notion that these sort of issues ever have a lasting effect on Presidential politics. Certainly this one won't.