UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (8 Viewers)

[ChainsawU]

I wanted a little action so I bet Rua wins in round 2 +310.

great way to start the round for you.

Great fight. Nice hit for you bud. And you sure got your money's worth out of this one!

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Good fight, but showed neither of these guys are threats to Jones (or even worthy of a bout IMO)

Give credit to Vera to actually showing up in shape and to fight.

 

[modogg]

I wanted a little action so I bet Rua wins in round 2 +310.

great way to start the round for you.

Great fight. Nice hit for you bud. And you sure got your money's worth out of this one!

Yeah, ended the night either even or a little up. But man, did they make it tough to take. I wonder how these guys will look in their next fights. Who knows with Vera. He looked better, but who knows what his motivation is. and Shogun, can't trust his conditioning, and I am beginning to think all of these wars are taking their toll on him.

 

[Bobcat10]

Didn't know it was getting announced tonight.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

No question it's Lyoto. Really, the only reason to withhold announcing tonight would be for a Lyoto injury....and Bader didn't touch him.

Only of the 4 fighters that even belong in the same octagon as Jones.

 

[Bobcat10]

Who's the chick with Lyoto? His twitter handle?

 

[modogg]

Sucks for both of them. Hope they can get other fights soon, yeah.

Sounds like the UFC will try and put Prado-Davis on the Travis Browne card, which i believe is the next FX card.Just took a look, it is the FX card on Oct. 5th. this is of course if Prado's eye is ok, and hopefully it is. Still an absolute brutal match-up for your first UFC fight, but he looked ready.and Brandon Vera kind of funny at the post-fight conference, yelling at a reporter who asked about Shogun out of shape, and Vera yelled at him saying he was pushing the pace. kind of funny.

 

[modogg]

and not to jump ahead to the next card already, but that should be a fun one. Guillard-Cerrone should be real fun. I don't think Cerrone will try and sub Guillard, and i think he'll want to stand and bang with him. Should be real fun

ETA: and ugh, the good with the bad. Rory McDonald is out of his fight with BJ for UFC 152 with a cut. That has to be one nasty cut he got training to have him out of that fight that is a good month away or so. my guess is we'll see pictures at some point

 

[Abrantes]

Great show tonight. Look at the rundown:

Moraga/Gomez - Brutal knockout.

Omigawa/Gamburyan - Okay for two rounds, excellent in the third.

De Fries/Thompson - Pretty good.

Grispi/Yahya - Beautiful submission.

Davis/Prado - The unfortunate low point of the night.

Phan/Miller - Very solid.

Swick/Johnson - Awesome knockout, and a huge win for the returning Swick.

Lauzon/Varner - One of the best fights of the year, with a sweet finish.

Machida/Bader - Another great knockout, and sets Lyoto up with a title shot.

Shogun/Vera - Well...I guess he won, at least.

Shogun has to be one of the most infuriating fighters on the planet. He's ridiculously talented, and few fighters could get away with gassing that early in a fight, but damn. Not sure if we'll ever get to see "Pride Shogun at 100%" again. That mythical creature spends its days hanging out with the Loch Ness monster, Ricardo Arona, Motivated BJ Penn and Vintage Belfort. Such a waste. #### it.

I did hear that he spends a lot of time at this one Brazilian steakhouse. Maybe he should rethink that.

 

[modogg]

Not sure if we'll ever get to see "Pride Shogun at 100%" again. That mythical creature spends its days hanging out with the Loch Ness monster, Ricardo Arona, Motivated BJ Penn and Vintage Belfort. Such a waste. #### it.

I would like to possibly nominate Paulo Filho to that list too. Though i guess now that i think about it he has legit mental health issues. Hopefully contender Hector Lombard can avoid this list as well

 

[modogg]

and bit of a crazy night for MMA news. First Rory Mcdonald out, and now Junior Dos Santos' fight might not be against Valasquez:



Junior dos Santos' next opponent has been Cain Velasquez ever since Velasquez demolished Antonio Silva, for all we'd ever been told. But tonight, a bit of a shift in the plan seems to be taking place with some suggestion that JDS might be fighting Alistair Overeem instead.

First, this started floating around:

@arielhelwani

JDS told Dana yesterday he has respect for Cain but he doesn't wanna fight him, wants to KO Overeem because he has been acting like a "punk"

4 Aug 12

And that was later expanded on by Brett Okomoto of ESPN:

@bokamotoESPN

Brett Okamoto ESPN confirms with @lorenzofertitta JDS is scheduled for Dec. 29 in Las Vegas but opponent TBD.

Aug 05

So, it looks like they're leaving the door open to book Overeem into the title shot despite currently without a fight license and unable to apply until mid to late December...the month of the JDS fight. That would be a very risky move, but the Nevada State Athletic Commission's pathetic behavior at Overeem's license hearing certainly suggests they wouldn't make too big of a deal of it.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Best card in a while.

 

[Pick]

Ya very happy with this card and free besides. Great stuff.

I record it and watch a few hours behind so I can fast-forward through non-fights and slow parts of fights. But I did notice Sonnen and Evans. Were they any good?

 

[Balco]

Ya very happy with this card and free besides. Great stuff.

I record it and watch a few hours behind so I can fast-forward through non-fights and slow parts of fights. But I did notice Sonnen and Evans. Were they any good?

Horrible. Sonnen was a train wreck. Was talking a mile a minute, made no good points, and was interrupting the other analysts. Evans was terrible too. Phil Davis did not look good based on 2 minutes in the octagon according to him. Just a horrible crew.

 

[kutta]

Best card in a while.

I agree. The all-HW card may have topped this one, but besides that, I haven't seen fights this good in awhile.They need to do away with the 125 lb and 135 lb divisions. Actually, 170 is about my cutoff for true enjoyment, but I really like some of the 145's and 155's, so I might let them stay. I am just so tired of watching a bunch of tiny guys out there fighting to decisions. This card had good mix of weight classes where all the guys were at least 155.

 

[Sebowski]

Ya very happy with this card and free besides. Great stuff.

I record it and watch a few hours behind so I can fast-forward through non-fights and slow parts of fights. But I did notice Sonnen and Evans. Were they any good?

Horrible. Sonnen was a train wreck. Was talking a mile a minute, made no good points, and was interrupting the other analysts. Evans was terrible too. Phil Davis did not look good based on 2 minutes in the octagon according to him. Just a horrible crew.

Disagree. I think Sonnen is great as an analyst. I normally live Evans, but he was a little to anxious last night.

 

[Pick]

I would think Sonnen would be good. Mic skills and willing to tell it like he sees it. Certainly willing to be critical. I probably should've watched but it was getting late.

 

[Sebowski]

I would think Sonnen would be good. Mic skills and willing to tell it like he sees it. Certainly willing to be critical. I probably should've watched but it was getting late.

He said Jon Jones has "a puncher's chance" against Dan Henderson.

 

[Balco]

Ya very happy with this card and free besides. Great stuff.

I record it and watch a few hours behind so I can fast-forward through non-fights and slow parts of fights. But I did notice Sonnen and Evans. Were they any good?

Horrible. Sonnen was a train wreck. Was talking a mile a minute, made no good points, and was interrupting the other analysts. Evans was terrible too. Phil Davis did not look good based on 2 minutes in the octagon according to him. Just a horrible crew.

Disagree. I think Sonnen is great as an analyst. I normally live Evans, but he was a little to anxious last night.

You think Evans was anxious but Sonnen wasn't? Sonnen made no sense last night. I am a huge Sonnen fan, love how he promotes a fight. As an analyst, he is terrible.

 

[SacramentoBob]

and bit of a crazy night for MMA news. First Rory Mcdonald out, and now Junior Dos Santos' fight might not be against Valasquez:



Junior dos Santos' next opponent has been Cain Velasquez ever since Velasquez demolished Antonio Silva, for all we'd ever been told. But tonight, a bit of a shift in the plan seems to be taking place with some suggestion that JDS might be fighting Alistair Overeem instead.

First, this started floating around:

@arielhelwani

JDS told Dana yesterday he has respect for Cain but he doesn't wanna fight him, wants to KO Overeem because he has been acting like a "punk"

4 Aug 12

And that was later expanded on by Brett Okomoto of ESPN:

@bokamotoESPN

Brett Okamoto ESPN confirms with @lorenzofertitta JDS is scheduled for Dec. 29 in Las Vegas but opponent TBD.

Aug 05

So, it looks like they're leaving the door open to book Overeem into the title shot despite currently without a fight license and unable to apply until mid to late December...the month of the JDS fight. That would be a very risky move, but the Nevada State Athletic Commission's pathetic behavior at Overeem's license hearing certainly suggests they wouldn't make too big of a deal of it.

I'll be honest here. I want to see Overeem - JDS more than Velasquez - JDS.

 

[Sebowski]

Frankie Edgar on his rematch with Bendo

"I gotta make sure that I fight my fight. I think I did a pretty good job of that last time, it just didn't go my way. I just gotta be a little bit better this time -- make sure I'm sure I'm a little more clear in the judges eyes, and I get my hand raised."

Nice to hear he is looking to finish the fight /sarcasm

 

[hooter311]

Frankie Edgar on his rematch with Bendo

"I gotta make sure that I fight my fight. I think I did a pretty good job of that last time, it just didn't go my way. I just gotta be a little bit better this time -- make sure I'm sure I'm a little more clear in the judges eyes, and I get my hand raised."

Nice to hear he is looking to finish the fight /sarcasm

Frankie caught nearly every kick Benson threw last fight, I'm guessing his gameplan will now incorporate some sort of offense from that. Love him at current odds, true line probably +125.

 

[Sebowski]

Frankie Edgar on his rematch with Bendo

"I gotta make sure that I fight my fight. I think I did a pretty good job of that last time, it just didn't go my way. I just gotta be a little bit better this time -- make sure I'm sure I'm a little more clear in the judges eyes, and I get my hand raised."

Nice to hear he is looking to finish the fight /sarcasm

Frankie caught nearly every kick Benson threw last fight, I'm guessing his gameplan will now incorporate some sort of offense from that. Love him at current odds, true line probably +125.

Fine, But when the fight talk is of "impressing the judges" instead of finishing the fight it makes me think this sport is going downhill.

 

[hooter311]

Frankie Edgar on his rematch with Bendo

"I gotta make sure that I fight my fight. I think I did a pretty good job of that last time, it just didn't go my way. I just gotta be a little bit better this time -- make sure I'm sure I'm a little more clear in the judges eyes, and I get my hand raised."

Nice to hear he is looking to finish the fight /sarcasm

Frankie caught nearly every kick Benson threw last fight, I'm guessing his gameplan will now incorporate some sort of offense from that. Love him at current odds, true line probably +125.

Fine, But when the fight talk is of "impressing the judges" instead of finishing the fight it makes me think this sport is going downhill.

Between the two of them, they have been finished once in 34 fights. Its not like they are putting on boring fights. Harder to generate KO power at lighter weights and the lack of submissions attests to both their skill levels.

 

[modogg]

Frankie Edgar on his rematch with Bendo

"I gotta make sure that I fight my fight. I think I did a pretty good job of that last time, it just didn't go my way. I just gotta be a little bit better this time -- make sure I'm sure I'm a little more clear in the judges eyes, and I get my hand raised."

Nice to hear he is looking to finish the fight /sarcasm

Frankie caught nearly every kick Benson threw last fight, I'm guessing his gameplan will now incorporate some sort of offense from that. Love him at current odds, true line probably +125.

Fine, But when the fight talk is of "impressing the judges" instead of finishing the fight it makes me think this sport is going downhill.

Between the two of them, they have been finished once in 34 fights. Its not like they are putting on boring fights. Harder to generate KO power at lighter weights and the lack of submissions attests to both their skill levels.

Outside of Frankie TKO'ing Maynard, I can't remember a time seeing him with a lot of power in his shots. And I can't remember seeing Henderson stumbling anybody with a shot. I think Frankie knows he won't sub Benson, so I think he said about the judges because he is just speaking realistically with how the fight will go down. I am pretty sure Frankie would love to stop Benson early, i just think he thinks the chance of that happening is not very likely. I don't remember seeing Frankie in a boring fight, and I think he has had enough close decisions/draws that there is certainly something to what he says when he wants to impress the judges. it is like when a fighter takes the other guy down with 10 seconds to go in the round for the purpose of ending in a dominant position when the bell rings. I think there is a strategy to playing the judges, and that is what he meant.

 

[modogg]

Last card was not as nice as i wanted it to be, and escaped with a small profit. I am destined to do much better this card, so let's take a look:

Main Card:

Ben Henderson (16-2) -185 vs. Frankie Edgar (14-2-1) +155

Donald Cerrone (18-4, 1 NC) -300 vs. Melvin Guillard (30-10-2, 1 NC) +240

Ed Herman (20-8) +160 vs. Jake Shields (27-6-1) -200

Yushin Okami (26-7) -550 vs. Buddy Roberts (12-2) +400

Justin Lawrence (4-0) -120 vs. Max Holloway (5-1) -110

Preliminary Card:

Dennis Bermudez (8-3) -285 vs. Tom Hayden (8-1) +225

Jared Hamman (13-4) -115 vs. Michael Kuiper (11-1) -115

Ken Stone (11-3) -125 vs. Erik Perez (11-4) -105

Dustin Pague (11-6) -205 vs. Chico Camus (11-3) +165

Facebook card:

Eiji Mitsuoka (18-8-2) +265 vs. Nik Lentz (21-5-2, 1 NC) -325

I have to look a lot more into most of these. For me, I like Frankie to at that number, and if i can get Guilard at +240 i will be all over it. I alos like Frankie up there, and am real tempted to grab Okami because i can't see how it is possibly Buddy Roberts is ready for that big of a jump in competition. think i like Ken Stone too

 

[Balco]

I will be attending the Jones-Henderson fight in Vegas. Excited to see the main event, but wow, the rest of that card is garbage.

 

[hooter311]

Last card was not as nice as i wanted it to be, and escaped with a small profit. I am destined to do much better this card, so let's take a look:Main Card:Ben Henderson (16-2) -185 vs. Frankie Edgar (14-2-1) +155Donald Cerrone (18-4, 1 NC) -300 vs. Melvin Guillard (30-10-2, 1 NC) +240Ed Herman (20-8) +160 vs. Jake Shields (27-6-1) -200Yushin Okami (26-7) -550 vs. Buddy Roberts (12-2) +400Justin Lawrence (4-0) -120 vs. Max Holloway (5-1) -110Preliminary Cardennis Bermudez (8-3) -285 vs. Tom Hayden (8-1) +225Jared Hamman (13-4) -115 vs. Michael Kuiper (11-1) -115Ken Stone (11-3) -125 vs. Erik Perez (11-4) -105Dustin Pague (11-6) -205 vs. Chico Camus (11-3) +165Facebook card:Eiji Mitsuoka (18-8-2) +265 vs. Nik Lentz (21-5-2, 1 NC) -325I have to look a lot more into most of these. For me, I like Frankie to at that number, and if i can get Guilard at +240 i will be all over it. I alos like Frankie up there, and am real tempted to grab Okami because i can't see how it is possibly Buddy Roberts is ready for that big of a jump in competition. think i like Ken Stone too

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

 

[Clayton Gray]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

 

[modogg]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

Yeah, the guy is real hard to read at times. No way i feel comfortable putting money on Melvin at this point, and if i have to put it on somebody, i will go Cerrone. And for me, the most secure bet on the card might be Okami. I don't see how buddy Rogers can beat him. The only factor that has me a bit concerned is the whole elevation levels in Denver and the propensity for guys to gas quicker there not expecting it to effect them like it does. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson had all his guys up there early preparing for it, or something comparable, and I am not positive Okami has that kind of preparation in his camp.

 

[hooter311]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

Yeah, the guy is real hard to read at times. No way i feel comfortable putting money on Melvin at this point, and if i have to put it on somebody, i will go Cerrone. And for me, the most secure bet on the card might be Okami. I don't see how buddy Rogers can beat him. The only factor that has me a bit concerned is the whole elevation levels in Denver and the propensity for guys to gas quicker there not expecting it to effect them like it does. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson had all his guys up there early preparing for it, or something comparable, and I am not positive Okami has that kind of preparation in his camp.

Seems like no matter when a professional MMA fighter starts, they hit a wall about 8 or 9 years in to their career where their ability to compete just falls off the map. This is true for at least 80% of MMA fighters, just go back and pick your favorite legend.Okami is 10 years in, and has been KO'd in his last 2 fights. Laying -570, even in a parlay is crazy.Speaking of that stalling point in a career. Jake Shields has not looked impressive since coming back against a gassed Henderson over two years ago after taking a monster butt kicking.At least one of Roberts or Herman will pull the upset, bank on it.Also, good point on the elevation. Jackson's guys will be prepared, especially after Shawn Jordan's conditioning failed at the last ppv just three weeks ago. Guarantee that Jackson's boys were conditioning in the mountains the very next day. Cerrone vs Guillard will last about 2 minutes before Cowboy hurts him and then submits poor Melvin. Miami is about the worst place on the world for a guy with his self control. 2.5 lbs might not seem like a whole lot been when you consider that he was probably able to shed 15+ and his body just couldn't sweat anymore. Very hard to come back from that conditioning wise even after rehyrdrating.

 

[modogg]

Seems like no matter when a professional MMA fighter starts, they hit a wall about 8 or 9 years in to their career where their ability to compete just falls off the map. This is true for at least 80% of MMA fighters, just go back and pick your favorite legend.Okami is 10 years in, and has been KO'd in his last 2 fights. Laying -570, even in a parlay is crazy.Speaking of that stalling point in a career. Jake Shields has not looked impressive since coming back against a gassed Henderson over two years ago after taking a monster butt kicking.At least one of Roberts or Herman will pull the upset, bank on it.Also, good point on the elevation. Jackson's guys will be prepared, especially after Shawn Jordan's conditioning failed at the last ppv just three weeks ago. Guarantee that Jackson's boys were conditioning in the mountains the very next day. Cerrone vs Guillard will last about 2 minutes before Cowboy hurts him and then submits poor Melvin. Miami is about the worst place on the world for a guy with his self control. 2.5 lbs might not seem like a whole lot been when you consider that he was probably able to shed 15+ and his body just couldn't sweat anymore. Very hard to come back from that conditioning wise even after rehyrdrating.

I think I may have to agree with you about Okami. I still think he wins that one, but at -600 there is no way i can put any money on him in good conscious. So far i only got money on Ken Stone and Frankie, need to look at some more stuff before adding more anywhere.

 

[kutta]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

Yeah, the guy is real hard to read at times. No way i feel comfortable putting money on Melvin at this point, and if i have to put it on somebody, i will go Cerrone. And for me, the most secure bet on the card might be Okami. I don't see how buddy Rogers can beat him. The only factor that has me a bit concerned is the whole elevation levels in Denver and the propensity for guys to gas quicker there not expecting it to effect them like it does. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson had all his guys up there early preparing for it, or something comparable, and I am not positive Okami has that kind of preparation in his camp.

FWIW regarding the elevation, I train at the same gym as Henderson does (well, I sort of train). He's been up in Flagstaff (7000 feet) for a few weeks training for this fight. Word is that he is looking really good.

 

[Bobcat10]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

http://www.mmaweekly.com/no-more-rematches-dana-white-confirms-nate-diaz-gets-ufc-150-main-event-winner

 

[kutta]

http://www.mmaweekly.com/no-more-rematches-dana-white-confirms-nate-diaz-gets-ufc-150-main-event-winner

Now I'll be rooting for Ben even more. I would LOVE to see him beat the hell out of Nate.

 

[modogg]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

Yeah, the guy is real hard to read at times. No way i feel comfortable putting money on Melvin at this point, and if i have to put it on somebody, i will go Cerrone. And for me, the most secure bet on the card might be Okami. I don't see how buddy Rogers can beat him. The only factor that has me a bit concerned is the whole elevation levels in Denver and the propensity for guys to gas quicker there not expecting it to effect them like it does. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson had all his guys up there early preparing for it, or something comparable, and I am not positive Okami has that kind of preparation in his camp.

FWIW regarding the elevation, I train at the same gym as Henderson does (well, I sort of train). He's been up in Flagstaff (7000 feet) for a few weeks training for this fight. Word is that he is looking really good.

I have heard he has been looking real good too. Funny things about this fight is hearing people talk about their last one. You get good analysts saying they thought Frankie won, and you have equally good analysts saying Henderson dominated the fight. My thought on this fight was how Frankie responded to Maynard. Hendo will be stronger and bigger, but i don't think there is any doubt Maynard was stronger than Frankie too. I just think Frankie handled himself well and if not for that upkick, i think he takes that fight. Funny about both of them is that i don't think they are gaining any new moves for this fight, both guys will be bringing the same thing to this fight. Frankie really wanted this rematch, and i think he knows what he has to do to beat hendo. And interesting about you training at the same gym as Hendo. I'm going to start Muay Thai classes late winter, early next year, and the Muay Thai instructor is apparently one of Hendo's main instructors and was in his corner for the last fight. We have to work on getting some good insider info. that can translate into winning bets for all of us

 

[hooter311]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

This I like, but I think you can bet a little less and take Bermudez in place of Okami and get the same return.I think they are both as likely to hit. It's still doubtful that Roberts has the power to put Okami away, I mean the guys that KO'd him were Anderson Silva and Boetsch who is acting an awful lot like a top 5 guy at 185. I'd say the true line would be more like -350 or so. (78%ish)They are pointing to Bermudez's weakness in sub defense but I just didn't see it in his last fight against Pablo Garza, I fighter I think very highly of. Hayden hasn't done anything to prove he is UFC quality. He has wins by subs but they are against a bunch of scrubs.Bermudez/Cerrone Parlay @ -135 5*

 

[modogg]

http://www.mmaweekly.com/no-more-rematches-dana-white-confirms-nate-diaz-gets-ufc-150-main-event-winner

I have also heard that both Nick and Nate will be with Roy Nelson for the next TUF season. Those guys are absolutely TV gold, and it will be fun watching them on there. I may have to go look up the Diaz vs. Karo feud when Nate was on TUF

 

[kutta]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

Yeah, the guy is real hard to read at times. No way i feel comfortable putting money on Melvin at this point, and if i have to put it on somebody, i will go Cerrone. And for me, the most secure bet on the card might be Okami. I don't see how buddy Rogers can beat him. The only factor that has me a bit concerned is the whole elevation levels in Denver and the propensity for guys to gas quicker there not expecting it to effect them like it does. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson had all his guys up there early preparing for it, or something comparable, and I am not positive Okami has that kind of preparation in his camp.

FWIW regarding the elevation, I train at the same gym as Henderson does (well, I sort of train). He's been up in Flagstaff (7000 feet) for a few weeks training for this fight. Word is that he is looking really good.

I have heard he has been looking real good too. Funny things about this fight is hearing people talk about their last one. You get good analysts saying they thought Frankie won, and you have equally good analysts saying Henderson dominated the fight. My thought on this fight was how Frankie responded to Maynard. Hendo will be stronger and bigger, but i don't think there is any doubt Maynard was stronger than Frankie too. I just think Frankie handled himself well and if not for that upkick, i think he takes that fight. Funny about both of them is that i don't think they are gaining any new moves for this fight, both guys will be bringing the same thing to this fight. Frankie really wanted this rematch, and i think he knows what he has to do to beat hendo. And interesting about you training at the same gym as Hendo. I'm going to start Muay Thai classes late winter, early next year, and the Muay Thai instructor is apparently one of Hendo's main instructors and was in his corner for the last fight. We have to work on getting some good insider info. that can translate into winning bets for all of us

Are you taking classes in Arizona? I'm at the MMA Labs. I love it there.I've only been taking Muay Thai/Kickboxing for a few months, but it's the most fun I've ever had working out, and I'm getting in pretty darn good shape too. You will totally dig it.

 

[modogg]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

This I like, but I think you can bet a little less and take Bermudez in place of Okami and get the same return.I think they are both as likely to hit. It's still doubtful that Roberts has the power to put Okami away, I mean the guys that KO'd him were Anderson Silva and Boetsch who is acting an awful lot like a top 5 guy at 185. I'd say the true line would be more like -350 or so. (78%ish)They are pointing to Bermudez's weakness in sub defense but I just didn't see it in his last fight against Pablo Garza, I fighter I think very highly of. Hayden hasn't done anything to prove he is UFC quality. He has wins by subs but they are against a bunch of scrubs.Bermudez/Cerrone Parlay @ -135 5*

Funny how it seems that we are all over the place on this card, but i think throwing Nik Lentz may work too. i have to look more into Mitsuoka, but The Carny is legit, and has done well in the UFC

 

[hooter311]

-300 is a monster number for MMA, but I think Cerrone is as safe as a bet gets. By all accounts out of Jackson's camp Cerrone used to tool Melvin sparring EVERY time, and tool him bad. Melvin hasn't done himself any favors switching camps to the Blackzillians and even they lost their main coach last month.

Guillard came in at 157.5 and chose not to try to cut the last 1.5 lbs. Good job Mel.

Yeah, the guy is real hard to read at times. No way i feel comfortable putting money on Melvin at this point, and if i have to put it on somebody, i will go Cerrone. And for me, the most secure bet on the card might be Okami. I don't see how buddy Rogers can beat him. The only factor that has me a bit concerned is the whole elevation levels in Denver and the propensity for guys to gas quicker there not expecting it to effect them like it does. I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson had all his guys up there early preparing for it, or something comparable, and I am not positive Okami has that kind of preparation in his camp.

FWIW regarding the elevation, I train at the same gym as Henderson does (well, I sort of train). He's been up in Flagstaff (7000 feet) for a few weeks training for this fight. Word is that he is looking really good.

I have heard he has been looking real good too. Funny things about this fight is hearing people talk about their last one. You get good analysts saying they thought Frankie won, and you have equally good analysts saying Henderson dominated the fight. My thought on this fight was how Frankie responded to Maynard. Hendo will be stronger and bigger, but i don't think there is any doubt Maynard was stronger than Frankie too. I just think Frankie handled himself well and if not for that upkick, i think he takes that fight. Funny about both of them is that i don't think they are gaining any new moves for this fight, both guys will be bringing the same thing to this fight. Frankie really wanted this rematch, and i think he knows what he has to do to beat hendo.

And interesting about you training at the same gym as Hendo. I'm going to start Muay Thai classes late winter, early next year, and the Muay Thai instructor is apparently one of Hendo's main instructors and was in his corner for the last fight. We have to work on getting some good insider info. that can translate into winning bets for all of us

He is 2-0 in Title Fight rematches and did crack the puzzle of what it takes to stop Gray Maynard. Frankie has to use his speed to generate offense and figure out what to do with those kicks. That upkick in the last fight was huge, enough to stop most men.Another thing to consider is the weight cut. Good to hear he has been training at altitude because he is going to need every bit of the cardio. Bendo has a huge frame and it has to be difficult for him to make championship weight and not have that extra pound to give as well as go another 2 full rounds. The last fight in Japan was at sea level.

If Bendo does have a hitch in cardio, we are going to be in for fireworks in the championship rounds.

 

[modogg]

Are you taking classes in Arizona? I'm at the MMA Labs. I love it there.I've only been taking Muay Thai/Kickboxing for a few months, but it's the most fun I've ever had working out, and I'm getting in pretty darn good shape too. You will totally dig it.

Not too close, Philly actually. That's what is weird. The guy i know who has been going to this gym has been going there for years (and has been bugging my fat ### to join him for years too), and he was telling me that was the Muay Thai coach they had. it is the Gracie academy, but i can't remember which Gracie it was. Renzo or rickson i think started it and works with it. The thing about my buddy is that he loves BJJ, but doesn't follow MMA very much at all, so he could be completely off

 

[kutta]

Are you taking classes in Arizona? I'm at the MMA Labs. I love it there.I've only been taking Muay Thai/Kickboxing for a few months, but it's the most fun I've ever had working out, and I'm getting in pretty darn good shape too. You will totally dig it.

Not too close, Philly actually. That's what is weird. The guy i know who has been going to this gym has been going there for years (and has been bugging my fat ### to join him for years too), and he was telling me that was the Muay Thai coach they had. it is the Gracie academy, but i can't remember which Gracie it was. Renzo or rickson i think started it and works with it. The thing about my buddy is that he loves BJJ, but doesn't follow MMA very much at all, so he could be completely off

Rick Roufus is the kickboxing coach at the Labs. I'm not sure what other coaches they bring in, but I'm sure they bring in guys from all over the place to help these guys train.

 

[hooter311]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

This I like, but I think you can bet a little less and take Bermudez in place of Okami and get the same return.I think they are both as likely to hit. It's still doubtful that Roberts has the power to put Okami away, I mean the guys that KO'd him were Anderson Silva and Boetsch who is acting an awful lot like a top 5 guy at 185. I'd say the true line would be more like -350 or so. (78%ish)They are pointing to Bermudez's weakness in sub defense but I just didn't see it in his last fight against Pablo Garza, I fighter I think very highly of. Hayden hasn't done anything to prove he is UFC quality. He has wins by subs but they are against a bunch of scrubs.Bermudez/Cerrone Parlay @ -135 5*

Funny how it seems that we are all over the place on this card, but i think throwing Nik Lentz may work too. i have to look more into Mitsuoka, but The Carny is legit, and has done well in the UFC

Mitsuoka has had moderate success with wrestlers before while Lentz has struggled with both other wrestlers, like getting whooped on by Waylon Lowe before securing the sub as well as a grappler similar to Eiji in Mark Bocek in a fight that Lentz was dominated. Mitsuoka's Japanese experience with heel hook techniques could also come in to play as it just is as big of an aspect of MMA here. Still like Lentz as a fighter, and as the likely winner but I'll have a small amount on Eiji. My line for Nik would be closer to like -190. Lentz is usually an underdog in his fights, one that has paid off for me in the past, -390 is a huge line on him.

 

[modogg]

Seems like no matter when a professional MMA fighter starts, they hit a wall about 8 or 9 years in to their career where their ability to compete just falls off the map. This is true for at least 80% of MMA fighters, just go back and pick your favorite legend.

Okami is 10 years in, and has been KO'd in his last 2 fights. Laying -570, even in a parlay is crazy.

Speaking of that stalling point in a career. Jake Shields has not looked impressive since coming back against a gassed Henderson over two years ago after taking a monster butt kicking.

At least one of Roberts or Herman will pull the upset, bank on it.

Also, good point on the elevation. Jackson's guys will be prepared, especially after Shawn Jordan's conditioning failed at the last ppv just three weeks ago. Guarantee that Jackson's boys were conditioning in the mountains the very next day.

Cerrone vs Guillard will last about 2 minutes before Cowboy hurts him and then submits poor Melvin. Miami is about the worst place on the world for a guy with his self control. 2.5 lbs might not seem like a whole lot been when you consider that he was probably able to shed 15+ and his body just couldn't sweat anymore. Very hard to come back from that conditioning wise even after rehyrdrating.

Herman has looked better, but i have to think Shields takes this. The price is good for him at -200, I am sure Sheilds has better grappling, and Herman has power in his right hand, but not technically sound striking. the variable i can't figure out is that hermann was out for so long with his bum knees that i am not sure what he has gained over the years. I know he has looked good since returning, but Shields looked ok with his stand-up against GSP, and i have to think his return to MW will help him out. You have me thinking here about this one now, but i still think i will pull the trigger on Sheilds. Sheilds knows he has to win this one if he expects to ever be considered a UFC fighter, and Herman has looked, but against sub-par talent

 

[modogg]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

This I like, but I think you can bet a little less and take Bermudez in place of Okami and get the same return.I think they are both as likely to hit. It's still doubtful that Roberts has the power to put Okami away, I mean the guys that KO'd him were Anderson Silva and Boetsch who is acting an awful lot like a top 5 guy at 185. I'd say the true line would be more like -350 or so. (78%ish)

They are pointing to Bermudez's weakness in sub defense but I just didn't see it in his last fight against Pablo Garza, I fighter I think very highly of. Hayden hasn't done anything to prove he is UFC quality. He has wins by subs but they are against a bunch of scrubs.

Bermudez/Cerrone Parlay @ -135 5*

Funny how it seems that we are all over the place on this card, but i think throwing Nik Lentz may work too. i have to look more into Mitsuoka, but The Carny is legit, and has done well in the UFC

Mitsuoka has had moderate success with wrestlers before while Lentz has struggled with both other wrestlers, like getting whooped on by Waylon Lowe before securing the sub as well as a grappler similar to Eiji in Mark Bocek in a fight that Lentz was dominated. Mitsuoka's Japanese experience with heel hook techniques could also come in to play as it just is as big of an aspect of MMA here. Still like Lentz as a fighter, and as the likely winner but I'll have a small amount on Eiji. My line for Nik would be closer to like -190. Lentz is usually an underdog in his fights, one that has paid off for me in the past, -390 is a huge line on him.

I agree with that. I would throw him in a parlay, but putting -400 on him is not a good idea. I don't know what is up with Odessa or whoever is setting these lines. you would think they would have gotten banged up enough on big underdogs to start backing off, but they keep pushing these lines. It was only a year and a half ago (maybe a little more), where literally the only fighters who were around -400 were GSP and Silva. Maybe 2.5 years, but still, the way they are making a lot of these guys big favorites is making it too tempting to ride the dogs for awhile. The Okami-Roberts line is similar, I think okami takes that fight almost every time, but i have a hard time laying -600 on it with the various variables out there that are being ignored

 

[modogg]

Are you taking classes in Arizona? I'm at the MMA Labs. I love it there.I've only been taking Muay Thai/Kickboxing for a few months, but it's the most fun I've ever had working out, and I'm getting in pretty darn good shape too. You will totally dig it.

Not too close, Philly actually. That's what is weird. The guy i know who has been going to this gym has been going there for years (and has been bugging my fat ### to join him for years too), and he was telling me that was the Muay Thai coach they had. it is the Gracie academy, but i can't remember which Gracie it was. Renzo or rickson i think started it and works with it. The thing about my buddy is that he loves BJJ, but doesn't follow MMA very much at all, so he could be completely off

Rick Roufus is the kickboxing coach at the Labs. I'm not sure what other coaches they bring in, but I'm sure they bring in guys from all over the place to help these guys train.

Yeah, my buddy didn't know anybody's name, but i doubt it was Roufus. That guy has to be a ton of fun to learn under.

 

[hooter311]

Love the Ken Stone play, mo.

Brutal knockout losses aside, the guy is legit and holds a large wrestling advantage as well as striking and submission advantage in my book.

The 3 seconds in which Perez got the "verbal submission" tap on John Albert may have been the only 3 seconds he was winning of that fight. I think Stone cruises to an easy decision victory.

Also like Camus as a dog at +160 and that line may keep climbing. At some point Pague needs to have an actual fight camp to prepare for a fight instead of taking short notice affairs and he isn't that particularly talented in the first place. He is Bayou tough though so betting against him may lead to some gigantic frustration.

Also on Holloway/Lawrence. Lawrence at + money is just too good to be true. Everything I'm reading talks about Lawrence having the wrestling advantage with him likely to struggle with Holloway's take down defense. Lawrence trains at Blackhouse, spars with Machida, and has extensive kickboxing experience. His use of kicks should be able to negate some of Holloway's length as Holloway is almost pure golden gloves boxing style offense. If this fight stays standing Holloway will probably not have the power to finish the fight or the wrestling to dictate where it goes. Lawrence either wins rounds soundly or lands something big late.

 

[hooter311]

Seems like no matter when a professional MMA fighter starts, they hit a wall about 8 or 9 years in to their career where their ability to compete just falls off the map. This is true for at least 80% of MMA fighters, just go back and pick your favorite legend.

Okami is 10 years in, and has been KO'd in his last 2 fights. Laying -570, even in a parlay is crazy.

Speaking of that stalling point in a career. Jake Shields has not looked impressive since coming back against a gassed Henderson over two years ago after taking a monster butt kicking.

At least one of Roberts or Herman will pull the upset, bank on it.

Also, good point on the elevation. Jackson's guys will be prepared, especially after Shawn Jordan's conditioning failed at the last ppv just three weeks ago. Guarantee that Jackson's boys were conditioning in the mountains the very next day.

Cerrone vs Guillard will last about 2 minutes before Cowboy hurts him and then submits poor Melvin. Miami is about the worst place on the world for a guy with his self control. 2.5 lbs might not seem like a whole lot been when you consider that he was probably able to shed 15+ and his body just couldn't sweat anymore. Very hard to come back from that conditioning wise even after rehyrdrating.

Herman has looked better, but i have to think Shields takes this. The price is good for him at -200, I am sure Sheilds has better grappling, and Herman has power in his right hand, but not technically sound striking. the variable i can't figure out is that hermann was out for so long with his bum knees that i am not sure what he has gained over the years. I know he has looked good since returning, but Shields looked ok with his stand-up against GSP, and i have to think his return to MW will help him out. You have me thinking here about this one now, but i still think i will pull the trigger on Sheilds. Sheilds knows he has to win this one if he expects to ever be considered a UFC fighter, and Herman has looked, but against sub-par talent

Herman's gym is absolutely legit and he was dedicating himself to coaching and training other fighters during his rehab. I think this help improved his fight IQ and take the next step as a fighter and he was taught on how to instruct by guys like Couture and Sonnen while at Team Quest back in the day.