UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (2 Viewers)

[hooter311]

I don't think Shields even beat Akiyama. Make sure you re-watch that fight before putting money on him at -200.

Now if it gets down to -160, I might be barking a different tune.

I'm even going to re-rewatch that fight right now.

 

[kutta]

Are you taking classes in Arizona? I'm at the MMA Labs. I love it there.I've only been taking Muay Thai/Kickboxing for a few months, but it's the most fun I've ever had working out, and I'm getting in pretty darn good shape too. You will totally dig it.

Not too close, Philly actually. That's what is weird. The guy i know who has been going to this gym has been going there for years (and has been bugging my fat ### to join him for years too), and he was telling me that was the Muay Thai coach they had. it is the Gracie academy, but i can't remember which Gracie it was. Renzo or rickson i think started it and works with it. The thing about my buddy is that he loves BJJ, but doesn't follow MMA very much at all, so he could be completely off

Rick Roufus is the kickboxing coach at the Labs. I'm not sure what other coaches they bring in, but I'm sure they bring in guys from all over the place to help these guys train.

Yeah, my buddy didn't know anybody's name, but i doubt it was Roufus. That guy has to be a ton of fun to learn under.

I actually go in the early mornings so I don't train with Roufus. My guy is pretty awesome too, but he's no Roufus.

 

[modogg]

I don't think Shields even beat Akiyama. Make sure you re-watch that fight before putting money on him at -200.Now if it gets down to -160, I might be barking a different tune.I'm even going to re-rewatch that fight right now.

those fights in Japan are tough to put a lot of attention to because of the bunch of factors there too, though i think those factors were less for a guy like Sheilds who has a lot of experience, and probably had the means to acclimate over there first before the fight. There were a few guys, maybe it was Joe Lauzon, who talked about how he just couldn't adjust to fighting at 10 a.m. but i will take a look into it more before pulling the trigger. i would love to make some good money on this card and hoping the wins can come flying in. And i am really thinking Cerrone-Guillard stays standing through the fight. i think Cerrone still has the advantage in the striking department beacuse he is better technically, but i also think he is too stubborn to go the easy route of taking it to the ground and submitting Guillard and that fight has the chance of getting him KO'd because Guillard is probably the most powerful striker in that division. i got some on Cerron because it does seem like the obvious pick, but it won't be easy

 

[modogg]

Love the Ken Stone play, mo. Brutal knockout losses aside, the guy is legit and holds a large wrestling advantage as well as striking and submission advantage in my book.The 3 seconds in which Perez got the "verbal submission" tap on John Albert may have been the only 3 seconds he was winning of that fight. I think Stone cruises to an easy decision victory.Also like Camus as a dog at +160 and that line may keep climbing. At some point Pague needs to have an actual fight camp to prepare for a fight instead of taking short notice affairs and he isn't that particularly talented in the first place. He is Bayou tough though so betting against him may lead to some gigantic frustration.Also on Holloway/Lawrence. Lawrence at + money is just too good to be true. Everything I'm reading talks about Lawrence having the wrestling advantage with him likely to struggle with Holloway's take down defense. Lawrence trains at Blackhouse, spars with Machida, and has extensive kickboxing experience. His use of kicks should be able to negate some of Holloway's length as Holloway is almost pure golden gloves boxing style offense. If this fight stays standing Holloway will probably not have the power to finish the fight or the wrestling to dictate where it goes. Lawrence either wins rounds soundly or lands something big late.

i agree with you about Pague, but he has cost me money in his last 2 fights, and i hate to have it happen again. And the thing is he has looked real good too. For as much as people want to #### on TUF these days, they have had some legit guys come out the last few years. Nobody competing for the title anytime soon, but guys who will stick around for awhile and have legit skills to be a factor. I also have to get re-familiar with Camus too.

 

[hooter311]

I don't think Shields even beat Akiyama. Make sure you re-watch that fight before putting money on him at -200.

Now if it gets down to -160, I might be barking a different tune.

I'm even going to re-rewatch that fight right now.

those fights in Japan are tough to put a lot of attention to because of the bunch of factors there too, though i think those factors were less for a guy like Sheilds who has a lot of experience, and probably had the means to acclimate over there first before the fight. There were a few guys, maybe it was Joe Lauzon, who talked about how he just couldn't adjust to fighting at 10 a.m. but i will take a look into it more before pulling the trigger. i would love to make some good money on this card and hoping the wins can come flying in.

And i am really thinking Cerrone-Guillard stays standing through the fight. i think Cerrone still has the advantage in the striking department beacuse he is better technically, but i also think he is too stubborn to go the easy route of taking it to the ground and submitting Guillard and that fight has the chance of getting him KO'd because Guillard is probably the most powerful striker in that division. i got some on Cerron because it does seem like the obvious pick, but it won't be easy

Disagree completely. Guillard is going to come in mentally defeated and will attempt to overcome it by getting "mad" like he usually does and will probably end up doing something stupid. Check Diego Sanchez's twitter for his descriptions of how Cerrone treated Melvin in sparring sessions. He was surprised Melvin would take the fight, let alone suggest it. Melvin has fast hands but does not throw combinations which is bad news against a counter striker like Cerrone. Cerrone literally had his intestines outside of his body in a motocross accident just days before beating the crap out of Jeremy Stephens. I still think he only looked bad against Diaz due to what ever head injury he sustained that morning monkeying with his horse. He was acting like a person with a concussion before the fight even started.

I may have already typed this but Cerrone by submission around the 2 minute mark. I think he can hang with anyone in the division and Melvin isn't even top 15 at this point.

 

[hooter311]

Just watched the weigh-in. Benson appeared to be in phenomenal shape, cardio might not be an issue after all.

I'll still be rooting for the little guy. Go get him Frankie!

ETA:

Cerrone on Melvin:

“Training with the guy -- if you push him -- even in his fights, when he’s down and he starts doubting himself he breaks pretty easy, he folds up a little bit. But I hope a confident Melvin shows up. I want the best Melvin they got. If he thinks he can beat me, that’s great, I’m here and I want to see it. Just tell Melvin ‘I’m coming to whip your ###.’”

 

[derek245583]

Guillard is my favorite fighter, you are telling me he is gonna lose??

 

[Bobcat10]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

This I like, but I think you can bet a little less and take Bermudez in place of Okami and get the same return.I think they are both as likely to hit. It's still doubtful that Roberts has the power to put Okami away, I mean the guys that KO'd him were Anderson Silva and Boetsch who is acting an awful lot like a top 5 guy at 185. I'd say the true line would be more like -350 or so. (78%ish)They are pointing to Bermudez's weakness in sub defense but I just didn't see it in his last fight against Pablo Garza, I fighter I think very highly of. Hayden hasn't done anything to prove he is UFC quality. He has wins by subs but they are against a bunch of scrubs.Bermudez/Cerrone Parlay @ -135 5*

Funny how it seems that we are all over the place on this card, but i think throwing Nik Lentz may work too. i have to look more into Mitsuoka, but The Carny is legit, and has done well in the UFC

Mitsuoka has had moderate success with wrestlers before while Lentz has struggled with both other wrestlers, like getting whooped on by Waylon Lowe before securing the sub as well as a grappler similar to Eiji in Mark Bocek in a fight that Lentz was dominated. Mitsuoka's Japanese experience with heel hook techniques could also come in to play as it just is as big of an aspect of MMA here. Still like Lentz as a fighter, and as the likely winner but I'll have a small amount on Eiji. My line for Nik would be closer to like -190. Lentz is usually an underdog in his fights, one that has paid off for me in the past, -390 is a huge line on him.

I've got Cerrone, Okami and Bermudez dabbled in all over the place together and with some others.Don't have much of Lentz/Mitsuoka anywhere so might toss a little on the dog.Always have liked Lawrence so I'm all over him around Even.Going with your guys Stone call as well....and I'm going on my own limb with Kuiper.I'll be rooting for Benson so that's where I'll be for the main event. I don't dislike Edgar, but there's something there that turns me off a smidge. Maybe my mind still wants someone to put him away like I wanted to happen in the Penn fights. I'm a bitterman sometimes.

 

[hooter311]

Guillard is my favorite fighter, you are telling me he is gonna lose??

He is going to get absolutely ran over.But if its your favorite fighter how can you not put .25-.5 units on it and let it ride?

 

[hooter311]

Okami/Cerrone come out around -210 or -220? Gonna be a nice size play for me.

This I like, but I think you can bet a little less and take Bermudez in place of Okami and get the same return.I think they are both as likely to hit. It's still doubtful that Roberts has the power to put Okami away, I mean the guys that KO'd him were Anderson Silva and Boetsch who is acting an awful lot like a top 5 guy at 185. I'd say the true line would be more like -350 or so. (78%ish)

They are pointing to Bermudez's weakness in sub defense but I just didn't see it in his last fight against Pablo Garza, I fighter I think very highly of. Hayden hasn't done anything to prove he is UFC quality. He has wins by subs but they are against a bunch of scrubs.

Bermudez/Cerrone Parlay @ -135 5*

Funny how it seems that we are all over the place on this card, but i think throwing Nik Lentz may work too. i have to look more into Mitsuoka, but The Carny is legit, and has done well in the UFC

Mitsuoka has had moderate success with wrestlers before while Lentz has struggled with both other wrestlers, like getting whooped on by Waylon Lowe before securing the sub as well as a grappler similar to Eiji in Mark Bocek in a fight that Lentz was dominated. Mitsuoka's Japanese experience with heel hook techniques could also come in to play as it just is as big of an aspect of MMA here. Still like Lentz as a fighter, and as the likely winner but I'll have a small amount on Eiji. My line for Nik would be closer to like -190. Lentz is usually an underdog in his fights, one that has paid off for me in the past, -390 is a huge line on him.

I've got Cerrone, Okami and Bermudez dabbled in all over the place together and with some others.Don't have much of Lentz/Mitsuoka anywhere so might toss a little on the dog.

Always have liked Lawrence so I'm all over him around Even.

Going with your guys Stone call as well....and I'm going on my own limb with Kuiper.

I'll be rooting for Benson so that's where I'll be for the main event. I don't dislike Edgar, but there's something there that turns me off a smidge. Maybe my mind still wants someone to put him away like I wanted to happen in the Penn fights. I'm a bitterman sometimes.

I agree on your call. It is troubling that Kuiper got beat by Natal last time out, but that is why we are getting this kind of line. Kuiper's controlled striking should be able to find a hole and take Hamman out when he is coming in like a wild man. Kuiper wouldn't be the first guy with octagon jitters the first time out, and usually the first fight in the UFC is the most money these guys have ever made and their training camps improve drastically as well. Kuiper did win the third round against Natal and Hamman has a good chance of gassing late which should give him plenty of time to take a decisive third or get the late stoppage.Good stuff that we are all pretty much on the same page here....i hope.

 

[hooter311]

Just an FYI, looks like Hamman has been training at altitude while Kuiper's camp was in Holland, below sea level.

I don't think it will effect my bet, may be a bit smaller.

ETA: Hamman also had a fight scheduled for March that he pulled out of with an undisclosed injury in January. His twitter account has 2,600 tweets but I can't find any mention of the injury. Looks like he has been training again since March. Worth noting though.

 

[hooter311]

Shields hee hawing now about "not being 100%" and not doing any training at altitude.

Does he want to be a fighter any more? Was his dad what made it all worth while?

Regardless, this isn't 2008 Jake Shields. His wrestling/JJ base was way ahead of it's time when he was in his prime. He's had a great career. But this talk about a revitalized title run at 185 is nonsense.

 

[Bobcat10]

Well good luck tonight. I'll be on an hour or so delay....should be able to catch up by 11:00...

 

[modogg]

Shields hee hawing now about "not being 100%" and not doing any training at altitude.Does he want to be a fighter any more? Was his dad what made it all worth while? Regardless, this isn't 2008 Jake Shields. His wrestling/JJ base was way ahead of it's time when he was in his prime. He's had a great career. But this talk about a revitalized title run at 185 is nonsense.

some strange line movements. looks like a lot of money came in on Perez, Kuiper and Holloway. Any idea why?and yeah, glad i stayed away from putting money on Sheilds and i'll be putting a good chunk on Herman

 

[Sebowski]

Even if Shields is as checked out as he sounds he can still take care of Herman on muscle memory alone.

 

[hooter311]

Shields hee hawing now about "not being 100%" and not doing any training at altitude.Does he want to be a fighter any more? Was his dad what made it all worth while? Regardless, this isn't 2008 Jake Shields. His wrestling/JJ base was way ahead of it's time when he was in his prime. He's had a great career. But this talk about a revitalized title run at 185 is nonsense.

some strange line movements. looks like a lot of money came in on Perez, Kuiper and Holloway. Any idea why?and yeah, glad i stayed away from putting money on Sheilds and i'll be putting a good chunk on Herman

The Perez one is bothering me. I'm hoping it's just the Jackson camp affiliation. I believe I had graded Stone as a big play last time out as an even bigger dog. Like I said, brutal KOs aside, he's pretty good.Kuiper is a pretty big prospect on the radar, Hamman has never done anything that impressive in the UFC. Maybe more to that injury from before I had touched on.Holloway shows a lot promise, but not much KO power. I think if you spend 3 rounds standing with Lawrence he is going to tag you with something. I don't think Holloway can win with body shots alone against a full time fighter.

 

[modogg]

Even if Shields is as checked out as he sounds he can still take care of Herman on muscle memory alone.

i thought too, but am beginning to lose confidence in him. even in his interviews, he looks like he dosen't even want to be there. it's strange, and i do think cardio will play a part in this one

 

[modogg]

Shields hee hawing now about "not being 100%" and not doing any training at altitude.Does he want to be a fighter any more? Was his dad what made it all worth while? Regardless, this isn't 2008 Jake Shields. His wrestling/JJ base was way ahead of it's time when he was in his prime. He's had a great career. But this talk about a revitalized title run at 185 is nonsense.

some strange line movements. looks like a lot of money came in on Perez, Kuiper and Holloway. Any idea why?and yeah, glad i stayed away from putting money on Sheilds and i'll be putting a good chunk on Herman

The Perez one is bothering me. I'm hoping it's just the Jackson camp affiliation. I believe I had graded Stone as a big play last time out as an even bigger dog. Like I said, brutal KOs aside, he's pretty good.Kuiper is a pretty big prospect on the radar, Hamman has never done anything that impressive in the UFC. Maybe more to that injury from before I had touched on.Holloway shows a lot promise, but not much KO power. I think if you spend 3 rounds standing with Lawrence he is going to tag you with something. I don't think Holloway can win with body shots alone against a full time fighter.

just seems like a smaller card, and wondering why money would come pouring in on these guys. we've beaten line swings more often than not, just weird.

 

[EYLive]

When do the facebook prelims start?

 

[hooter311]

When do the facebook prelims start?

7:30 easternLentz laid an absolute smackdown on Eiji who obviously doesn't belong in the UFC. Tapped to strikes.

 

[hooter311]

Pague had him in a fight ending triangle, what a huge mistake there.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Nice fight.

 

[hooter311]

Nice fight.

Camus is a little beast at 135. His athleticism being able to neutralize Pague's length is a great start in weak division.

 

[derek245583]

Nice knockout...dude did a faceplant

 

[hooter311]

oof. Chinny McChinChin strikes again against Ken Stone.

 

[SacramentoBob]

oof. Chinny McChinChin strikes again against Ken Stone.

He was clearly out and it was a good stoppage, but he sure did recover fast. A lot of times guys try to jump up to show they weren't stopped and fall back down. He was up and walking around like nothing.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Wonder if he can change his name to Ken Glass?

 

[Brady Marino]

Ken Stone> learn how to cover yourself on the ground, son.

 

[hooter311]

Wonder if he can change his name to Ken Glass?

http://www.wingdamage.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/glass-joe.jpg

 

[hooter311]

How do they not see that Hamman suffered a significant knee injury half way through the round. towel is going in.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Man he got brutalized at the end.

 

[hooter311]

Man he got brutalized at the end.

Protect your career. Throw in the towel when you suffer that kind of injury. He just took about 50 unneccessary shots to the head with improper footwork to cushion the blows. Probably his last fight.I know guys want to be warriors, but there has to be a line. This is where you want your career to end?

 

[SacramentoBob]

I think Bermudez is going to have a better UFC career than Brandao.

 

[hooter311]

I think Bermudez is going to have a better UFC career than Brandao.

 

[hooter311]

Reports are that Cerrone is sitting in back eating BBQ chicken...not joking.

Like at this minute.

 

[Brady Marino]

Reports are that Cerrone is sitting in back eating BBQ chicken...not joking.Like at this minute.

When the fight starts, is he going to yell "LEEEEEROOOOOOOOOOOOOOYYYYY!!! JEEEEEEEEEEEENNNNKIIIIIIIIINNNSSS!!!!"?

 

[Brady Marino]

Rooting for Justin Lawrence here because he fights out of the same camp that a good buddy from my high school fights out of in STL (Finneys MMA), but between two nut shots and a crimson mask at the end of the round, a little worried. Still a close fight, though.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Reports are that Cerrone is sitting in back eating BBQ chicken...not joking.Like at this minute.

Sounds like the fix is in.

 

[hooter311]

Reports are that Cerrone is sitting in back eating BBQ chicken...not joking.Like at this minute.

Sounds like the fix is in.

I'm having a hard time determining if it is completely awesome or completely foolish.Reports are that Melvin quit sweating around noon yesterday at 158. Gas tank will be severely affected, just in casse.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Let's go Herman!

 

[hooter311]

Ed, get off the fence and get in a boxing matching with him. You got this.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

sweet, another Jake Shields snoozefest

wtf happened to the UFC this year? went from a must buy PPV to "oh, thats on again, eh"

 

[hooter311]

Call me crazy, but if you have 5d live betting, I'm putting another unit on Herman now.

 

[Brady Marino]

sweet, another Jake Shields snoozefestwtf happened to the UFC this year? went from a must buy PPV to "oh, thats on again, eh"

If this keeps up, Dana's post-event press conference will be the most entertaining thing of the evening.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

sweet, another Jake Shields snoozefestwtf happened to the UFC this year? went from a must buy PPV to "oh, thats on again, eh"

If this keeps up, Dana's post-event press conference will be the most entertaining thing of the evening.

kind of funny b/c the crowd appears to be either asleep or too bored to boo

 

[SacramentoBob]

 

[Brady Marino]

sweet, another Jake Shields snoozefestwtf happened to the UFC this year? went from a must buy PPV to "oh, thats on again, eh"

If this keeps up, Dana's post-event press conference will be the most entertaining thing of the evening.

kind of funny b/c the crowd appears to be either asleep or too bored to boo

Never a good thing when the audience is too apathetic to even react. That's worse than booing.

 

[hooter311]

Herman must have sat down and set up a game plan with Matt Riddle last night.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

Jake thinks the altitude made him "slow down". Kid, every one of your fights are boring

 

[Brady Marino]

Jake thinks the altitude made him "slow down". Kid, every one of your fights are boring

Goldberg yelping "We still haven't seen the real Jake Shields" made me laugh. Making Shields smoke meth and take electric volts to the ballsack before a match won't make his fights any less boring. This IS the real Jake Shields, and it's garbage.