Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
- Start date
zander_s
Footballguy
3-1 nice night, good fights
zander_s
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
Rampage won, but he literally won it in the last 2 seconds of the fight with a nice shot on Jardine that knocked him down. I think it was more of Jardine's exhaustion than the shot itself, but it still was the deciding factor. Would have been very, very interesting if Rampage didn't get that last shot, i am pretty sure Jardine would have won 29-28 (except of course in mentally handicapped Cecil Peoples' eyes since he never agrees with other scorers at the fight). good fight, and it really came down to the last 2 seconds.
Abrantes
Footballguy
Really? I thought Rampage won all three rounds as well (although the first could've gone either way). Didn't think Jardine was winning the third one either. Guess I'll rewatch it tomorrow to get a clearer picture.
modogg
Footballguy
Nice job again Sheer. But i really feel that MMA wagering needs to be more for fun and not for any kind of money making. Jardine was 2 seconds from what i believe winning 29-28, and i would have hit 2 of my 3 parlays if Boetsch would have pulled out a win (one parlay was Boetsch, Maynard and Brown, the other one was Boetsch, Maynard, Brown, Hammil and Grove). Frustrating these picks have been lately, but i guess that is where Sheer's advice from last card comes into play, with going light on plays. Oh well, we'll try again next card
modogg
Footballguy
i just looked at some score cards from an MMA website or 2 and it looks like they were leaning more your way, so I definately have to watch it again too. It is a good fight to watch again. I thought Jardine's ring aggression and shots landed had him winning round 1, and round 2 was probably closer for Rampage because of the definitive knock down of Jardine (i think when Rampage was stunned Jardine could have had him real bad too, but it looked like Jardine was gassed at this point), and round 3 i thought wasn't convincing either way, but Jardine was more aggressive so he may eek out a decision. This is something that does need to be worked on in MMA though, because it all depends on the scorer's perception, and they grade so differently. I thought the ring aggression of Jardine would have him edge it out, but i will watch again myselfReally? I thought Rampage won all three rounds as well (although the first could've gone either way). Didn't think Jardine was winning the third one either. Guess I'll rewatch it tomorrow to get a clearer picture.
modogg
Footballguy
well with a couple of you guys feeling this way then you are probably more right and i was probably more swayed in my perception based on who i was hoping would win. I agree Jardine didn't do enough to win it either, and i was surprised to see him so gassed. I am willing to bet if he wasn't as gassed as he was in the end of that second round and for the third he would have won it. Surprising because i have to think Greg Jackson makes sure his guys are in shape by the time they are in the fight. My guess is it may have been more pronounced maybe because Jardine's possible nerves and obvioulsy huge difference doing cardio and getting punched in the face and getting knocked down. Once that adrenaline rush goes away after a flash knockout like that, you really are more drained. Either way it was a good fight. As for Evans-Rampage, i want to take Evans, but i have a sneaking suspicion that Rashad will have a minor GSP-effect regarding the difference between fighting for the title, and making the first defense. Not saying it will be anything like Serra's K.O. over GSP, just that defending your title is different than fighting for it, and i wonder how Rashad will be in that scenario.
Fallerjw
Footballguy
Rampage probably would have won the fight, but wasn't as dominating as I would have liked to have seen considering they are giving him a shot at the title over Machida. What does that guy have to do to get a shot?
How about Carwin? Who does he fight next? I'm thinking Nogueira. If he wins that, he fights the winner of the Mir / Lesnar fight.
How about Carwin? Who does he fight next? I'm thinking Nogueira. If he wins that, he fights the winner of the Mir / Lesnar fight.
modogg
Footballguy
i'm not sure if it ever became official, but i thought Nog was scheduled to fight Randy sometime late summer or something like that. I think that gives Carwin too much time to wait for Nog so he needs someone before that. I like playing the Joe Silva role, and i was thinking of potential guys and i have 2. Cheik Kongo fights in UFC 97, i think Antoni Hardonk, and if he can escape that relatively un-hurt i think Carwin-Kongo would be a good one. Also, i know Cro-Cop is scheduled to return to the UFC for the Germany show, i think 99. they probably want to give Cro Cop an easy fight, especially in Germany to have him get a win in the UFC, but if not Carwin-Cro Cop would be a good one too
Abrantes
Footballguy
A curious element of Rampage's game is how great he is at closing a round. Stealing the round, sometimes. He's won several very close rounds with final flurries in the last few seconds. Won a razor-thin split decision over Lindland in the last few seconds, as well as a couple of rounds in the Henderson fight and here against Jardine. Great instincts.
modogg
Footballguy
so i guess on Steve Cofield's post-event show Rampage said he wasn't sure he wanted to fight Evans for the title in May, which i guess makes sense to me. I hope he does, but it doesn't give him too much time to recover. For those that didn't catch the PPV, Frank Mir was on to explain his situation a little more, basically saying it was his knee and he would like to be 100% for that fight so he would like to take it a month or 2 later. They than had Rashad on who said he would defend his title for the main event in place of the Lesnar fight. Thus, Rampage-Evans for that May PPV. i think it definately is in Rampage's best intrerest to not take this fight in 2 months, but if he does i lean toward Rashad maybe here because getting mentally and physicaly ready for that fight will be tough on Rampage. and that is a good point above Abrantes, Rampage does prepare himself very well. He looked alright fighting under Wolfslair tonight, we'll see how it looks going forward
and since i have been losing money like it is my job on the last few events, i am ready to jump to the next PPV. i know i am skipping over a fight night, but 1 fight stuck out to me for UFC 97 with a good line. It ws Chuck Lidell -175 over Shogun. I think public will come flying in on Chuck, so i think this line will move as get closer. And i like Chuck here, but i dislike Shogun here moreso. Shogun's fight against Forrest wasn't impressive, and his fight agaist Coleman was even less impressive. i think some guys transition to fighting in the US under the UFC banner is mre effected than others, and Shogun is one of them. Now Chuck's last fight was last September when he lost to Rashad, but before that he did have an impresive win over Wandy. i think i heard rumors of Chuck finally training with other guys and expanding his prep for fights, and i think Chuck will defeat Shogun here pretty solidly. Not convinced and we have a lot to see yet, jsut think if you are like me and ready to get back on the horse, taking Chuck now may make sense before you have to lay more juice
and since i have been losing money like it is my job on the last few events, i am ready to jump to the next PPV. i know i am skipping over a fight night, but 1 fight stuck out to me for UFC 97 with a good line. It ws Chuck Lidell -175 over Shogun. I think public will come flying in on Chuck, so i think this line will move as get closer. And i like Chuck here, but i dislike Shogun here moreso. Shogun's fight against Forrest wasn't impressive, and his fight agaist Coleman was even less impressive. i think some guys transition to fighting in the US under the UFC banner is mre effected than others, and Shogun is one of them. Now Chuck's last fight was last September when he lost to Rashad, but before that he did have an impresive win over Wandy. i think i heard rumors of Chuck finally training with other guys and expanding his prep for fights, and i think Chuck will defeat Shogun here pretty solidly. Not convinced and we have a lot to see yet, jsut think if you are like me and ready to get back on the horse, taking Chuck now may make sense before you have to lay more juice
sheerterror
Footballguy
I feel the exact same way. I bet Rampage so it was hard to root against him, but I would really love to see Machida get a title shot.Who do you think he gets next? Forest? I truly think he is the best fighter in the division and I will back him at any number from here on out.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Thanks. Actually didn't help myself much because I made two degen plays on Maynard and then Sell so lost some vig there.At the odds the fight was at, Jardine was the right play. I was relatively confident that Rampage was winning the fight midway through the 3rd (this may have been affected by having bet him) but Jardine fought a hell of a fight and in that situation you want your money on the big underdog as far as I'm concerned. I said it in my mini-write up, the Jackson price sucked but I truly thought he was going to win so it worked out - but I don't think for a second that at the price I paid, I was on the right side. As far as your plays are concerned, I don't know how many parlays you had, but if you had Boetsch in 2 or more of them you were probably pretty confident in him...why didn't you also play him straight? I haven't been hitting my parlays but I think the best strategy would be to find the 1-2 fights that you are most confident in and then mix and match a few combinations and hope to hit one. After that, hit those 1 or 2 confidence plays you had straight to at least cover the cost of your parlays. You know a ####-load about MMA - definitely more than I do - I see no reason why you can't be making some significant profit while also having fun gambling on it.As far as the next PPV, I LOVE Liddell in that fight. And he's definitely going to be a big time public darling so I think it's a great idea to lock him in early at this price. You hit the nail on the head - it's not just a play on Liddell, it's also a play against Shogun. I sweated out his heavy favorite - skin of his teeth victory against a washed up, old, out of shape Mark Coleman and I can't even imagine what Chuck will do to him if the fight goes past the middle of the second and Shogun is gassed, waiting to be someone's punching bag again. -175 or whatever it is at is a bargain, and I'm almost positive there will be a juicy middle come fight time.
modogg
Footballguy
Is it being televised, i don't see it on HDnet? i tell you my success in MMA wagering back a year ago compared to today is unreal. I like the Dream events a lot, but i'm not too much into this one. i don't know too many of the guys in the tournament. anybody we should keep our eyes open for?Also, despite the lack of betting discussion for it, the Dream 7 event started not too long ago. Currently in the first fight, Bibiano Fernandes vs. Otsuka. Should be a fun event with the lighter weight classes!
modogg
Footballguy
thanks Sheer, i just got frustrated with another losing event, but like they say, "We Move On". i got to be able to catch one of these times. My 2 most confident plays were Maynard and Boetsch (at their prices). I didn't want to play them straight because i wanterd to cap my spending for this event. I guess putting a straight wager on Maynard may have helped, but i didn't want to expose to much money. and i liked Jardine to give a good shot (like i said earlier 50/50 if he makes it past the first 2:50 of the fight). I'll figure it out for the next card. just frustrated, but hopefuly a successful Sunday with GooRoo will help to get over it.
Abrantes
Footballguy
There's a couple lightweight fights involving big-name LWs like Aoki vs. David Gardner, Kawajiri vs. Ross Ebanez and Ishida vs. Daisuke Nakamura (who's actually pretty awesome himself). Other than that, the event is basically the first round of their featherweight GP with some pretty damn good fighters. Chase Beebe, Takaya, Maeda, Bibiano Fernandes and Micah Miller have all fought in the WEC at one point or another. Masakazu Imanari is a Pride veteran with some absolutely nasty leglocks. Fun event for squirrely technical fighters. Bibiano looked excellent in his fight. His record is 4-2 but I cut him some slack, given that the two losses were to Urijah Faber and Kid Yamamoto. Beebe was one of my favorites in the tournament, but lost on a cut stoppage.Is it being televised, i don't see it on HDnet? i tell you my success in MMA wagering back a year ago compared to today is unreal. I like the Dream events a lot, but i'm not too much into this one. i don't know too many of the guys in the tournament. anybody we should keep our eyes open for?Also, despite the lack of betting discussion for it, the Dream 7 event started not too long ago. Currently in the first fight, Bibiano Fernandes vs. Otsuka. Should be a fun event with the lighter weight classes!
modogg
Footballguy
I have liked Beebe too, tough break for him. the Kawajiri and Aoki fights seemed like showcase fights, but so be it. love the tournament style over there, and i am hoping Micah Miller does well, and look forward to catching some of the guys you mentioned above. and a note about the Jardine-Rampage fight. There is an interview on sherdog with Greg Jackson (who of course will be bias), but he said one of the judges came up to Keith and told him "We had you winning that fight up until those last 10 seconds" of course who knows, and maybe the ref was trying to be encouraging, but you have to feel crappy if you are Jardine and you hear that. I have also heard a lot of opinions about how people thought Rashad was overly biased (no fault of his own) toward Jardine in the fight, and it is one of those fights where if you watch it with the sound off you get a different perception of the fight. i thought it was funny when i heard this because i thought Goldberg was a little to pro-Rampage at times (i think sometime in the 3rd round he made a comment about nice kick from Rampage as Keith delivered a straight cross right to Rampage). i think this shows the scoring system needs to be better defined at some point and i really hope they doAbrantes said:There's a couple lightweight fights involving big-name LWs like Aoki vs. David Gardner, Kawajiri vs. Ross Ebanez and Ishida vs. Daisuke Nakamura (who's actually pretty awesome himself). Other than that, the event is basically the first round of their featherweight GP with some pretty damn good fighters. Chase Beebe, Takaya, Maeda, Bibiano Fernandes and Micah Miller have all fought in the WEC at one point or another. Masakazu Imanari is a Pride veteran with some absolutely nasty leglocks. Fun event for squirrely technical fighters. Bibiano looked excellent in his fight. His record is 4-2 but I cut him some slack, given that the two losses were to Urijah Faber and Kid Yamamoto. Beebe was one of my favorites in the tournament, but lost on a cut stoppage.modogg said:Is it being televised, i don't see it on HDnet? i tell you my success in MMA wagering back a year ago compared to today is unreal. I like the Dream events a lot, but i'm not too much into this one. i don't know too many of the guys in the tournament. anybody we should keep our eyes open for?Abrantes said:Also, despite the lack of betting discussion for it, the Dream 7 event started not too long ago. Currently in the first fight, Bibiano Fernandes vs. Otsuka. Should be a fun event with the lighter weight classes!
sheerterror
Footballguy
Machida/Evans is official. Sportsbook opened at Machida -155 Evans +125, it has now moved to -170/+140. I personally think Machida picks Evans apart, but the event is over 2 months away so hopefully as it gets closer to the fight the public jumps on the name they know better and I can get Lyoto at a better price.
Abrantes
Footballguy
I love it when the champ isn't the favorite, but it's pretty surprising to see Rashad as the underdog against anyone. I'm pretty much the biggest Machida fanboy around, so I'm ridiculously amped for this fight.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Same here. I've been telling anybody who will listen (out of people I know) that Machida is a legitimate stud in this super deep LHW division and their responses were always "he's boring." They were obviously singing a different tune when he dismantled Thiago Silva and now everybody I know loves him...it's funny the way that works. I've loved the guy ever since I saw him pick apart Sokodojou (spelling?) and it's great to see he's starting to get the love he deserves.It certainly is odd to see the contender as the favorite from a gambling perspective - especially when Joe Public probably knows the name Rashad Evans a helluva lot more than Lyoto Machida. I'm trying to figure out if that makes this a sharp line for the fight, but praying that the public backs the champ at + vig and we see a better line. I would have loved Machida at EV or better, but I'm prepared to back him no matter the price because I've yet to see anybody who seems like they know how to handle him in the octagon. I realize it's unlikely the fight ever happens since they are apparently close friends...but how would you see a fight between Machida and Anderson Silva go down?
Last edited by a moderator:
I love Machida but am very worried about Evans for one reason - I've thought Evans would lose every match he has had.
modogg
Footballguy
I don't know Sheer, i say don't go too heavy on Machida. I like Machida a lot too, but Rashad matches up well against him. He won't be over-aggresive, and the way Rashad fought Chuck, with Chuck's counter punching and all, makes me think it won't be that predictable of a fight. Thiago stalked Machida, and so did Tito after a bit. With it being 5 rounds Rashad will have time to measure him up and will see. I am definately not taking anybody in this fight, tough call. i'm just real excited it is a 5 round match. i'm guessing Rashad tries to wrestle him for a round or 2, and really mixes everything up. as to Anderson vs. Machida, i think that would be a very interesting fight. i actually lean a little toward Machida based on match-up styles. and i read a funny article in Fight magazine. they usually throw in an article about betting MMA, and this month they have one titled "Don't Believe the Hype". they show the main event from UFC 72 to UFC 94, and show that the underdog for the main event only won 6 out of the 24 times. they were Rashad beating Chuck, Forrest beating Rampgae, Thiago Alves beating Hughes (cashed nice on this one
), Chuck over Wanderlei, Jardine over Chuck, and Randy over Gonzaga. basicaly they are pointing out it isn't very profitable taking the underdog in the main event. All i know is a few years ago it used to be, but i will take this advice for a bit and lay low on underdogs in main events. i have 3 pending bets floating out there, GSP -270 over Alves, Chuck over Shogun (i forget the odds i got when i took it), and Lesnar over Mir.
Buddy Ball 2K3
Footballguy
Machida will win the belt and not lose for a very long time. He is the most under rated fighter in MMA.
modogg
Footballguy
i am not positive on this, but i am pretty sure Machida has won every round (on the scorecards of course) he has been in since he joined the UFC. Really can't bet against that, but still I just think Rashad is a good match-up. If i was forced to bet i would lean Machida, but am glad i am staying away
modogg
Footballguy
I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest 
. Now i lost a bit on Kim, but now that it is a no contest, I should expect sportsbook to refund this money, right? anybody have any experience with this? i think that i have a right to the money since it is a no contest now, but i don't think sportsbook will be openly excited about reimbursing me
. Now i lost a bit on Kim, but now that it is a no contest, I should expect sportsbook to refund this money, right? anybody have any experience with this? i think that i have a right to the money since it is a no contest now, but i don't think sportsbook will be openly excited about reimbursing me
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Doubt it. They probably have something saying that all action is final 48 hours after the event or something like that.ETA: I had a few bucks on Kim also.I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest
Last edited by a moderator:
Abrantes
Footballguy
Not sure how it would go down in a fight between, but some interesting food for thought: by all accounts from their friends and training partners on Brazilian forums, Lyoto regularly schools Anderson in their sparring sessions.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Not sure how it would go down in a fight between, but some interesting food for thought: by all accounts from their friends and training partners on Brazilian forums, Lyoto regularly schools Anderson in their sparring sessions.
modogg
Footballguy
Doubt it. They probably have something saying that all action is final 48 hours after the event or something like that.ETA: I had a few bucks on Kim also.I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest. Now i lost a bit on Kim, but now that it is a no contest, I should expect sportsbook to refund this money, right? anybody have any experience with this? i think that i have a right to the money since it is a no contest now, but i don't think sportsbook will be openly excited about reimbursing me
, no luck. That Kim loss was one of the most dissapointing i have had in awhile. but, as they say, We Move OnAnd there are 2 fights posted on sportsbook right now with real good value. I don't have much money so unfortunately i can't take advantage of them, but i receommend people take a look if they want them:UFC - UFC 98 - Middleweight Matchup 5/23/09 2030 Yushin Okami -205 (he is fighting Dan Miller who is +165). i know the Miller brothers have created a lot of hype about themselves and they come into to fight, but Okami should be fine here. He has fought a lot of guys better than Miller and won, so i think this is pretty easy moneyUFC - UFC 99 - Middleweight Matchup 6/13/09 3020 Alan Belcher -260 (he is fighting Alessio Sakara who is +200. i don't even know why Sakara is still in the UFC. Seems like a nice guy, but he hasn't done much of anything. Belcher has been getting better and better, and i don't see how he could lose this fight.) i really think these 2 are almost automatic wins. i am hoping the lines don't move much and closer to the events i can take them, but they seem like very, very good bets.
goldenchild
Footballguy
Please forgive my noobism here, but how do you interpret the Fighter A -200, Fighter B +165 odds?Doubt it. They probably have something saying that all action is final 48 hours after the event or something like that.ETA: I had a few bucks on Kim also.I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest. Now i lost a bit on Kim, but now that it is a no contest, I should expect sportsbook to refund this money, right? anybody have any experience with this? i think that i have a right to the money since it is a no contest now, but i don't think sportsbook will be openly excited about reimbursing me
modogg
Footballguy
Please forgive my noobism here, but how do you interpret the Fighter A -200, Fighter B +165 odds?
well i don't know how the books come up with the numbers, but if someone is -200, it means you have to bet $200 to win $100. If someone has plus odds, it means they are the underdog and if you bet $100 on +165, you would win $165. i'm not sure how good my explanation was, make sense?
well i don't know how the books come up with the numbers, but if someone is -200, it means you have to bet $200 to win $100. If someone has plus odds, it means they are the underdog and if you bet $100 on +165, you would win $165. i'm not sure how good my explanation was, make sense?
sheerterror
Footballguy
If there's a (-) before the number, that's how much you have to lay for every $100 you want to win. If there is a + then that is how much you win for every $100 you risk.goldenchild said:Please forgive my noobism here, but how do you interpret the Fighter A -200, Fighter B +165 odds?modogg said:Doubt it. They probably have something saying that all action is final 48 hours after the event or something like that.ETA: I had a few bucks on Kim also.I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest
goldenchild
Footballguy
Thanks! I'm not so much interested on how they books come up with them, rather an explanation of what they meant.How do you know the min bets and how much you win? For example, in the first case you say you have to bet $200 to win $100. What if I only wanted to bet like $50 or even more like $500, then how much would I win? I have the same question for the +165 case. What if I bet more or less?
goldenchild
Footballguy
Ahhh! Got it! Thanks (read this after my last reply).If there's a (-) before the number, that's how much you have to lay for every $100 you want to win. If there is a + then that is how much you win for every $100 you risk.goldenchild said:Please forgive my noobism here, but how do you interpret the Fighter A -200, Fighter B +165 odds?modogg said:Doubt it. They probably have something saying that all action is final 48 hours after the event or something like that.ETA: I had a few bucks on Kim also.I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest, no luck. That Kim loss was one of the most dissapointing i have had in awhile. but, as they say, We Move OnAnd there are 2 fights posted on sportsbook right now with real good value. I don't have much money so unfortunately i can't take advantage of them, but i receommend people take a look if they want them:UFC - UFC 98 - Middleweight Matchup 5/23/09 2030 Yushin Okami -205 (he is fighting Dan Miller who is +165). i know the Miller brothers have created a lot of hype about themselves and they come into to fight, but Okami should be fine here. He has fought a lot of guys better than Miller and won, so i think this is pretty easy moneyUFC - UFC 99 - Middleweight Matchup 6/13/09 3020 Alan Belcher -260 (he is fighting Alessio Sakara who is +200. i don't even know why Sakara is still in the UFC. Seems like a nice guy, but he hasn't done much of anything. Belcher has been getting better and better, and i don't see how he could lose this fight.) i really think these 2 are almost automatic wins. i am hoping the lines don't move much and closer to the events i can take them, but they seem like very, very good bets.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Agree with Belcher 100%. He's a very undervalued fighter IMO. I've heard people mentioning Okami, and I really haven't seen enough of his fights to get a good read on him yet, but his fight resume looks very impressive.modogg said:Doubt it. They probably have something saying that all action is final 48 hours after the event or something like that.ETA: I had a few bucks on Kim also.I got my fingers crossed on this one, and am hoping somebody here has some experience with this and can help. I read on bloodyelbow.com that Karo has been suspended from his failed drug test, and his fight against Kim has been ruled a no contest
sheerterror
Footballguy
Loving Liddell at -175 coming up against Rua. There's a few reasons for tremendous value in this line.
Liddell is coming off a notable ### kicking at the hands of Rashad Evans. We all watched as Rashad picked Chuck apart and ended it with a devastating knock out. Chuck has not fought since, and Rashad has since become the LHW champion. This line, to me, seems to indicate some thought that Liddell may be washed up...because if Chuck had beat Rashad and was still facing Rua, I think you'd be looking at -300ish. There's seems to be some perception that Liddell is starting to fade, and while you could certainly argue that he's no longer in his prime, he's still in the 2nd tier of the very deep LHW division. I don't think there should be tremendous knock on him right now because he got beat up pretty good by possibly the best fighter in the division in his last fight.
Dana White recently commented that although he and Chuck are great friends, Liddell is going to have to not just win, but really "dazzle" in his fight with Rua in order to continue in the UFC. Chuck commands a high price per fight given his popularity in the sport. The last thing White wants it to let Liddell walk to Strikeforce or Affliction. If Liddell is no longer capable of being a headliner or co-headliner, the UFC can't justify giving him the paydays that he commands. I have to dig up the quote, but it certainly gives the impression that this is a challenge to Liddell and step up in this fight - and I'm not sure you could find more motivation for Liddell right now. A guy like Rua has name recognition so he's not exactly a tomato can, but he shouldn't pose a significant obstacle that prevents Chuck to get back in the win column.
Finally, it's also a play against Rua. This guy looked like GARBAGE in his last fight. I laid heavy juice on him against Mark Coleman and man was I sweating in the 3rd round. They were both absolutely gassed - and although for much of the first two rounds it looked like it was only a matter of time before Rua knocked Coleman out - come 3rd round, Shogun was so tired he looked like he was primed to get tagged by the Hammer. He managed to pull out the victory, but he won't be even close to as lucky if the same thing happens in the Liddell fight. If this fight somehow gets to the 3rd, with the way Shogun looked against Coleman, Chuck will put him out with the first shot he lands. Unless Rua has improved his conditioning SUBSTANTIALLY since the fight against Coleman, I give him almost no chance of winning this fight. If he's improved, he obviously has a shot but there is still tremendous value in Chuck given so many other factors, that I still see tremendous value at -175. This will likely be a 3-4 unit fight for me.
Liddell is coming off a notable ### kicking at the hands of Rashad Evans. We all watched as Rashad picked Chuck apart and ended it with a devastating knock out. Chuck has not fought since, and Rashad has since become the LHW champion. This line, to me, seems to indicate some thought that Liddell may be washed up...because if Chuck had beat Rashad and was still facing Rua, I think you'd be looking at -300ish. There's seems to be some perception that Liddell is starting to fade, and while you could certainly argue that he's no longer in his prime, he's still in the 2nd tier of the very deep LHW division. I don't think there should be tremendous knock on him right now because he got beat up pretty good by possibly the best fighter in the division in his last fight.
Dana White recently commented that although he and Chuck are great friends, Liddell is going to have to not just win, but really "dazzle" in his fight with Rua in order to continue in the UFC. Chuck commands a high price per fight given his popularity in the sport. The last thing White wants it to let Liddell walk to Strikeforce or Affliction. If Liddell is no longer capable of being a headliner or co-headliner, the UFC can't justify giving him the paydays that he commands. I have to dig up the quote, but it certainly gives the impression that this is a challenge to Liddell and step up in this fight - and I'm not sure you could find more motivation for Liddell right now. A guy like Rua has name recognition so he's not exactly a tomato can, but he shouldn't pose a significant obstacle that prevents Chuck to get back in the win column.
Finally, it's also a play against Rua. This guy looked like GARBAGE in his last fight. I laid heavy juice on him against Mark Coleman and man was I sweating in the 3rd round. They were both absolutely gassed - and although for much of the first two rounds it looked like it was only a matter of time before Rua knocked Coleman out - come 3rd round, Shogun was so tired he looked like he was primed to get tagged by the Hammer. He managed to pull out the victory, but he won't be even close to as lucky if the same thing happens in the Liddell fight. If this fight somehow gets to the 3rd, with the way Shogun looked against Coleman, Chuck will put him out with the first shot he lands. Unless Rua has improved his conditioning SUBSTANTIALLY since the fight against Coleman, I give him almost no chance of winning this fight. If he's improved, he obviously has a shot but there is still tremendous value in Chuck given so many other factors, that I still see tremendous value at -175. This will likely be a 3-4 unit fight for me.
Last edited by a moderator:
modogg
Footballguy
i hear ya, and i am glad to finally be on the same side as you. a few things:with the Dana quote, here is what i am thinking. Dana and Chuck have been friends for a long time. I think there is no way Dana makes a quote like that unless he knows Chuck can win in devastating fashion. if he wasn't confident in him and thought he may be washed up he wouldn't have said anything and milked Chuck for a little while longer, maybe 2 more fights or so so that Chuck and the UFC could make 2 more paydays.
Also, i am not sure of Chuck's training for this, but the best possible thing he could have ever done was to finally expand his training outside of just working with Hackelman (sp?) like he has the whole time. He desperately needed to mix it up a bit after losing to Jardine, Rashad and to a lesser extent Quinton, and i was so thankful he said that after his loss to Rashad. i am not sure what he did, but he sounded like he was definately going to do something. I also liked Chuck's performance against Wanderlei, and i think that he was better prepared to fight Rashad then he was against Jardine, it ws just Rashad was much better that night. I think Chuck learned from that.
as far as Shogun's conditioning, my guess is it will be much better. the thing is Chuck hasn't really had a problem with conditioning so at best Shogun can be at the same level as Chuck with conditioning. i think the public will jump on Chuck closer to the fight, so now may be the time to get some money in on him. i didn't see much of Shogun in Pride and before Pride, but i am pretty sure he won almost all of his fights in the first round. he looked defeated against Forrest when they fought after the first round. now i know he is boys with Wanderlei and all of them so there is minor concern he eally has upped his training after his surgery and wedding. i think Chuck is the better pick here, and i think Dana/UFC obviously wants to build Chuck back up so they give him a good opponent, but one that he can handle.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Well I hope you guys drive Rua up for me. I'm in the 'Chuck is washed up' group.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Is this just a blind fade of Chuck or do you see an advantage in Rua in this fight?ETA: It would probably take +225-250 for me to consider backing Rua, and even then I'd be more likely to just lay off.
Last edited by a moderator:
sheerterror
Footballguy
I hit Kampmann -105 and Miller -115 on Sportsbook for the upcoming Fight Night.
zander_s
Footballguy
Yep, i'm already on both of those.I like bader and griffen as well but the juice is too sour for me!
modogg
Footballguy
this is tough because Condit is a bad dude. He will come ready to fight. But Kampmann is one of my favorite fighters, so i may put a unit on him. and i think Miller should light up Junie as well, but i know Junie has been working at Xtreme Couture ever since the show ended and he has a few guys there who have taken him under their wing. I think Cole Miller is under-rated, and i am not sure what to expect from Junie for this fight night. Either way the Kampmann-Condit fight should be a real exciting one and one that i hope the mainstream catches.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Someone link this guy to the Coleman - Shogun fight. You're backing that guy?!?!?!?Charlie Harper said:
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
I saw the fight. I also say a 250 pound Coleman leaning on Shogun for almost 15 minutes. Shogun was giving up at least 40 pounds and I'm guessing that he didn't train that hard figuring he had an easy win. Against Chuck, he will be in shape and I believe we'll see the Shogun that has beat Nog, Jackson and Overeem.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I meant to respond to this sooner. I don't think it's valid to point out Shogun's performances against Nogueira, Jackson and Overeem, being that all of those fights were 4 years ago (Overeem the 2nd time was 2 years ago.) Since, Rua has had surgery and looked horrendous in his return against his tomato can "big enough name, even though washed up should be an easy victory to get you back in the win column" opponent. I'm not sure I'd gamble on Rua bouncing back enough from this to beat a hungry, motivated Liddell - especially not at +150 or whatever it is right now. It's easy to pin Chuck as washed up right now because he dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, but look at his level of competition - all 3 losses were to top 10 LHWs, with Evans and Rampage arguably being the 1 and 2. I think this fight is being set up 100% as a come back fight to get Liddell back into the winning column so he can continue being a co-headliner for another few fights. Dana will try to squeeze every dollar out of him that he can.