This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
I had a parlay with Assuncao, Fabiano, and Torres, but also had Aoki on it, so that one died. I may load the parlay back up with those 3 and Manny and/or Benavidez. also grabbed Manny -135 for 1.5 units.Ticket for tonight so farTapia -135Benavidez -125Still lookingETA - minor upset of the nightBen Henderson +160It's just a gut feeling, so don't tail with confidence!
Ticket for tonight so far
Tapia -135
Benavidez -125
Still looking
ETA - minor upset of the night
Ben Henderson +160
It's just a gut feeling, so don't tail with confidence!
I'll have to try and tail you next time you get one of those. I considered it, because i contemplated taking Njokuani, the guy he beat last time who was supposed to beat him. I didn't want to get too crazy betting, but either one of those would have been nice. The Benavidez-Curran fight is a good one. i am not sure what to score it right now, but it is close. and i think Benavidez has an edge right now going into the third. will help off-set the first loss.Ticket for tonight so far
Tapia -135
Benavidez -125
Still looking
ETA - minor upset of the night
Ben Henderson +160
It's just a gut feeling, so don't tail with confidence!
I didn't recognize Ben Henderson's name on paper but after seeing him I remember him from an MFC card last year. He looked really good on that one and looked great tonight. I am excited to see what this guy can do.Ticket for tonight so far
Tapia -135
Benavidez -125
Still looking
ETA - minor upset of the night
Ben Henderson +160
It's just a gut feeling, so don't tail with confidence!
I absolutely agree!ETA - Nice cut!Really nice showing so far from this Mizu dude.
No kidding. The dude is a legit top 5 bantamweight, so I knew he was tough, but I'm seriously impressed. He gave Torres all he had, and I had Mizugaki winning rounds one and three, while two, four and five go to Miguel. Tough, tough win, but he gutted it out. Mizugaki just couldn't deal with him in the clinch at all.Another entertaining WEC show in the books!Really nice showing so far from this Mizu dude.
No kidding. The dude is a legit top 5 bantamweight, so I knew he was tough, but I'm seriously impressed. He gave Torres all he had, and I had Mizugaki winning rounds one and three, while two, four and five go to Miguel. Tough, tough win, but he gutted it out. Mizugaki just couldn't deal with him in the clinch at all.Another entertaining WEC show in the books!Really nice showing so far from this Mizu dude.
I just checked the MMA lines, they have some up for Strikeforce event this weekend. Not sure i see any angles, but might take Diaz over Shmarock for .5 unit. and the Hendo-Bisping line has changed. Bisping is now +260 and Hendo is now -340. not a lot of bets coming in for Hendo thereI could have said the same thing regarding Mir against Nogueira a few months back and we all know what happened there.To me, the bottom line is that when you get towards the top of the weight class (and I say towards because I maintain that Bisping is not in the top tier of the MWs yet) it's hard to justify laying -500 on anybody other than Anderson Silva when they are fighting another solid opponent. As I said, I fully expect Henderson to win, but I think the fight will be kept close enough that at a certain point I'll be saying to myself "Man, I'm glad I'm getting 3 to 1 right now." I think Bisping wins this fight more often than the current odds suggest.exactly....how can bisping win this fight....That is a huge number, but you get numbers like that when it's extremely difficult to make a credible argument for how the other guy can win.Henderson -500/Bisping +300
I don't think Bisping is all that good of a fighter - not in the elite tier of the middleweight division yet at least. Henderson is a solid, solid fighter - but in no way shape or form should he be -500 in this fight. I fully expect him to win, but at this price, I have to lock in Bisping +300 in principle.
Cyborg is a complete bad-### and she will be coming in about 8 or 9 pounds bigger. But i would say don't take it. She has to really try and cut weight yesterday and didn't make it. could take a lot out of her, and it may make her weaker. Also, took some out of her purse already, not sure her mindset. Akona (i think that is her opponent's name) has been training with Barnett for a long time and has some good exp. Cyborg is a real bad-###, but this fight does not seem like a lock to me anymore
I did a little more research on Akona and she's got a pretty impressive resume herself, so at -550 this is a no play for me. I'm almost tempted to take a flyer on Akona but I just see Cyborg mauling her - she's damn impressive physically - so I'll stay off.modogg said:
that is a definately a good call. Akona has fought a lot, and i know Barnett is real high on her, so a no play is good. Let's just hope Scott Smith and Nick Diaz do their thing. I snuck in a half unit on Scott too, i thought he was the favorite, but he has a good chance against Radach
sheerterror said:
Nice one Sheer, wishing i went with a unit instead of a half unit, but that is how it always goes right? Good call manand thank you Nick!!. I got him at +155 last night at .5 unit, and i checked before the fight and he was at +190. I couldn't refuse it so i tacked another .5 unit on since i had a lot of confidence in Nick (still a little shell-shocked from the beating i took over the last month and a half with MMA bets though, so trying to be little more careful). Big reason i liked Nick is because he is completely an emotional fighter. People were talking about how he lost something and hasn't been that good lately, but you have to put him in a fight where he feels challenged (Lawler, Gomi, etc.), not guys like Mike Aina who he was real close to losing to.
yeah he did. Cung had a good point about Frank having those surgeries lately, and how good could he come in with that. I'm not sure what else to make of Shamrock and what he'll do from here
Wow, seriously? I didn't look at the lines, but it's hard to believe you could get Nick at +190, given how mediocre Frank looked in the Le and Baroni fights (although he won against Baroni). Excellent bet.sheerterror said:
thanks. I think he was around +155 for the couple of days that the lines were posted, but yeah right before the fight i checked and it was +190. I agree, a surprise jump, but there must be a lot of Frank Shamrock fans out there or something. Not sure why people would jump on Frank with enough confidence to jump the line by $35, but no complaints here. That win felt like the old days when you could make good money betting MMA on unbalanced linesWow, seriously? I didn't look at the lines, but it's hard to believe you could get Nick at +190, given how mediocre Frank looked in the Le and Baroni fights (although he won against Baroni). Excellent bet.sheerterror said:
Yeah, I loved those days.thanks. I think he was around +155 for the couple of days that the lines were posted, but yeah right before the fight i checked and it was +190. I agree, a surprise jump, but there must be a lot of Frank Shamrock fans out there or something. Not sure why people would jump on Frank with enough confidence to jump the line by $35, but no complaints here. That win felt like the old days when you could make good money betting MMA on unbalanced linesWow, seriously? I didn't look at the lines, but it's hard to believe you could get Nick at +190, given how mediocre Frank looked in the Le and Baroni fights (although he won against Baroni). Excellent bet.sheerterror said:
oursoneout:
sheerterror said:
I actually ended up making a late half unit play on Diaz also...only got +165 with the local but I felt there was too much value.Didn't even get a chance to watch the fights (I'm watching them now on the replay) but I managed to sneak a peak at the play-by-play on mmajunkie and it looks like we caught a break with Smith - but damn it feels good to hit 2 dogs on 1 card.
Thanks for posting this. I realize this is essentially just a fluff piece - but from the few briefs seconds they showed of it - I really like the look of Rua's strength and conditioning program. I don't expect Shogun to come in as poorly conditioned as he was in the Coleman fight. I may have to rethink just how large of a wager I want to make on Liddell.
I like all of these except Liddell. I wouldn't risk anything on the Liddell / Rua matchup. Both guys have supposedly rededicated themselves and will turn things around in this fight. We've heard that a million times in the past, but you only know whether it's true after the fact. The amazing thing is that the loser could possibly be out of the UFC.
it's a tough call, but the public LOVES Chuck. My guess would be you could probably wait up until the fight because money should come pouring in for Chuck. not positive of it thoughCharlie i hope you hit it. I just looked on sportsbook and Rua is now +155. people may feel burned by Chuck losing a bit of a coin on him in his last 4 fights, so maybe they won't come in hard on him. I bet if you line shop though you can find value.
It'll take another jump before the fight. Hopefully a lot of gamblers read this before the fight. The fighters have Chuck at 18-2-2 vs Rua.
man i have been fooled by the sherdog fighter's picks once or twice. I know i thought "hey, they are a fighter, so they must know more about the nuances of this fight", and man that didn't hold up. Most of them answer just like Shoney Carter did in that article. And the UFC countdowns, don't get me started. Dana and Rogan almost had me thinking of putting a little on Leites after watching that.
The UFC does a great job with those countdowns. If you didn't know a thing about the fighters and watched it, you'd think every fight was completely even and it was the greatest match ever. I recorded the countdown from last night, haven't watched it yet.I'll be putting enough on Leites to win 1u right before the fight. No way I think he wins that fight but in MMA, anyone can get caught (see: Serra vs GSP).
the best thing about this is that we'll find out tomorrow. If i remember correctly, he stunned Jardine once or twice, and had Wandy a little wobbly at one point too. i still like Chuck, though i don't think it is a lock.the funniest is the analysis i have been reading about it, man people are all over the place. i'll read one thath talks about how Shogun's style completely favors Chuck, then the next article says the opposite. about 4 or 5 things like this. just funny. personally i think Chuck matches up well. Shogun is not spectacular at taking guys down so i don't know if this fight will go to the ground unless Chuck takes it there. Shogun does have powerful Muay Thai, but not technically sound, and i just can't see Chuck getting in that close to get locked up in a clinch like that. i am sure he prepared for kicks after jardine beat him almost soley based on them, so i think the fight will come down to who lands better strikes. I think Rampage picked his spot wonderfully, and i think Rashad's hand speed is better than Shogun's. A lot of rambling thoughts here, but i think it will be a good fight and hopefuly Chuck comes out on topI will be rooting for Chuck, but the more I think about it, the more I am coming to the conclusion that Rua will take this.Liddell hasn't knocked anyone out in what, 2 1/2 years? Against a guy a decade younger, with a well rounded game like Rua, I think he will struggle.
it's funny, i have seen one or 2 predictions compare this to Serra-GSP. I think Cote-Silva was more like that, and i think Silva will want to come out and make an example of Thales. but yeah, those f'n countdowns. Man i was so sure Babalu was going to beat Chuck after watching that one.....
The comparison to GSP/Serra will always be thrown when there is a huge underdog. Same way boxing has its Douglas/Tyson comparison.it's funny, i have seen one or 2 predictions compare this to Serra-GSP. I think Cote-Silva was more like that, and i think Silva will want to come out and make an example of Thales. but yeah, those f'n countdowns. Man i was so sure Babalu was going to beat Chuck after watching that one.....
and here is a time comparison that surprised me. I didn't realize Rua-Coleman was only 3 months ago at UFC 93!! I feel more confident in Chuck after realizing that, i find it very hard to believe that Shogun turned it around in 3 monts. I also read that Howard Davis (Boxing coach from ATT) lived with Chuck for 8 weeks, so it sounds like Chuck did get some serious work in from ATT. there is tons of info all over about this fight now, but these 2 stuck out. and to the undercard, i am having trouble figuring out any real good deals. I may lean toward Marshall, McDonald and Stout in a parlay deal.I will be rooting for Chuck, but the more I think about it, the more I am coming to the conclusion that Rua will take this.Liddell hasn't knocked anyone out in what, 2 1/2 years? Against a guy a decade younger, with a well rounded game like Rua, I think he will struggle.
From a strict cardio standpoint I would think 3 months would be adequate training time for Rua to get his #### together if he has been as dedicated to doing so as he claimsThe Howard Davis angle is intriguing, I read a lot of great stuff about how improved Chuck's striking defense is, how difficult he has been to hit in sparring, etc...Tons of interesting angles/storylines for this one, one of the more interesting fights from an analytical standpoint in a while IMOand here is a time comparison that surprised me. I didn't realize Rua-Coleman was only 3 months ago at UFC 93!! I feel more confident in Chuck after realizing that, i find it very hard to believe that Shogun turned it around in 3 monts. I also read that Howard Davis (Boxing coach from ATT) lived with Chuck for 8 weeks, so it sounds like Chuck did get some serious work in from ATT. there is tons of info all over about this fight now, but these 2 stuck out. and to the undercard, i am having trouble figuring out any real good deals. I may lean toward Marshall, McDonald and Stout in a parlay deal.I will be rooting for Chuck, but the more I think about it, the more I am coming to the conclusion that Rua will take this.Liddell hasn't knocked anyone out in what, 2 1/2 years? Against a guy a decade younger, with a well rounded game like Rua, I think he will struggle.
While I think Rua had poor cardio vs Coleman, it wasn't as bad as everyone thinks IMO. He was fighting a guy that was pushing 250 and using every little bit of that weight to wear Rua down. Chuck won't tire Rua out by laying on him and wrestling with him.and here is a time comparison that surprised me. I didn't realize Rua-Coleman was only 3 months ago at UFC 93!! I feel more confident in Chuck after realizing that, i find it very hard to believe that Shogun turned it around in 3 monts. I also read that Howard Davis (Boxing coach from ATT) lived with Chuck for 8 weeks, so it sounds like Chuck did get some serious work in from ATT. there is tons of info all over about this fight now, but these 2 stuck out. and to the undercard, i am having trouble figuring out any real good deals. I may lean toward Marshall, McDonald and Stout in a parlay deal.I will be rooting for Chuck, but the more I think about it, the more I am coming to the conclusion that Rua will take this.Liddell hasn't knocked anyone out in what, 2 1/2 years? Against a guy a decade younger, with a well rounded game like Rua, I think he will struggle.
Hmm. I loved shogun in pride, but his last couple fights he has looked weak..cardio as well as his strike look soft..hopefully he can get his killer instinct back and start pummelling at full force again..as for silva leites...silva will make a fool out of that not worthy clown..ACharlie Harper said:While I think Rua had poor cardio vs Coleman, it wasn't as bad as everyone thinks IMO. He was fighting a guy that was pushing 250 and using every little bit of that weight to wear Rua down. Chuck won't tire Rua out by laying on him and wrestling with him.modogg said:and here is a time comparison that surprised me. I didn't realize Rua-Coleman was only 3 months ago at UFC 93!! I feel more confident in Chuck after realizing that, i find it very hard to believe that Shogun turned it around in 3 monts. I also read that Howard Davis (Boxing coach from ATT) lived with Chuck for 8 weeks, so it sounds like Chuck did get some serious work in from ATT. there is tons of info all over about this fight now, but these 2 stuck out. and to the undercard, i am having trouble figuring out any real good deals. I may lean toward Marshall, McDonald and Stout in a parlay deal.Tremendous Upside said:I will be rooting for Chuck, but the more I think about it, the more I am coming to the conclusion that Rua will take this.Liddell hasn't knocked anyone out in what, 2 1/2 years? Against a guy a decade younger, with a well rounded game like Rua, I think he will struggle.
i don't know, it was more than conditioning with that Coleman fight. there are plenty of guys who have had less than stellar conditioning, but I got to see parts of that fight the other day, and it was terrible. and the thing is you have to think Rua had some motivation going into that fight, goofy story lines aside, from his loss to Forrest. i really haven't even considered the conditioning angle for this fight just because i think if that was the main cause of his fight with Coleman he definately has fixed that by now. i still can't believe the part where Coleman was turtled up, Rua was sitting next to him leaning on him, and he did some half-### attempt at a backfist. it looked real bad.Charlie Harper said:While I think Rua had poor cardio vs Coleman, it wasn't as bad as everyone thinks IMO. He was fighting a guy that was pushing 250 and using every little bit of that weight to wear Rua down. Chuck won't tire Rua out by laying on him and wrestling with him.modogg said:and here is a time comparison that surprised me. I didn't realize Rua-Coleman was only 3 months ago at UFC 93!! I feel more confident in Chuck after realizing that, i find it very hard to believe that Shogun turned it around in 3 monts. I also read that Howard Davis (Boxing coach from ATT) lived with Chuck for 8 weeks, so it sounds like Chuck did get some serious work in from ATT. there is tons of info all over about this fight now, but these 2 stuck out. and to the undercard, i am having trouble figuring out any real good deals. I may lean toward Marshall, McDonald and Stout in a parlay deal.Tremendous Upside said:I will be rooting for Chuck, but the more I think about it, the more I am coming to the conclusion that Rua will take this.Liddell hasn't knocked anyone out in what, 2 1/2 years? Against a guy a decade younger, with a well rounded game like Rua, I think he will struggle.
I give up trying to figure it out. I took a half-day today, and about 2 hours ago the line was at Chuck -200 and Shogun -170. I just checked now and Chuck is -170 and Shogun is +140. Must be a lot of action coming in or sportsbook has an ichy trigger finger moving this line. i read somewhere earlier today that the last few fights the money has come in against Chuck before the fight. Of course this was when Chuck was favored -300 and such, and Shogun hasn't looked too intimidating based on his last 2 fights.Charlie Harper said:
good question. it will depend on if the fights end fast and we get some of the undercard, which i suspect we will. Silva-Leites has 0 chance of going 5 rounds, and my guess is a few of the others won't either. i know UFC 99 will be free, so buying 3 events in 4 months or so may not be bad.
I think its worth it... but I also get pretty much everyone and there is no way I'd miss a Silva fight.
sure, that is pretty much what it is anyway.
Probably worth it. The Silva fight will be entertaining in that it should be a straight butt-whipping. Really have no idea what to expect from Chuck and Rua, and Chuck's fights are usually pretty exciting, even if he gets KO'd. I think the Cane Cantwell fight could steal the show.
