UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (3 Viewers)

[Cavalier]

Thrilled to see Shogun fighting well (and smart). Excellent win for him, although it pains me to admit that it's time for Chuck to hang them up. Anderson put on his second stinker in a row. Although part of the blame goes to Thales, naturally, the dude is a completely different fighter from the wrecking machine that tore through the division up until the Henderson fight. Seems like he's just bored, and decided that it's up to his challengers to bring the fight to him, shedding the killer instinct that made him so popular. Beyond disappointing, considering he was the surest bet for a dazzling striking display every single time he fought.

well there are some nice rumors out today. if they are true, Silva will fight Forres Griffin next at UFC 101 in Philly ! i am guessing it sells out in a few minutes. and if it is true, it doesn't give Anderson much time and Forrest will engage him

[edit] Announced matchupsLightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian[5][6] Light Heavyweight bout: Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin[1] Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks[7] Middleweight bout: Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove[8] Lightweight bout: JrewgdNeer vs. Kurt Pellegrino[9] Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Alessio Sakara[10] Welterweight bout: John Howard vs. Tamdan McCrory[11] Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer[12] Welterweight bout: Danillo Villefort vs. Jesse Lennox[13] Lightweight bout: David Baron vs. Rob Emerson[14] Lightweight bout: Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley[15]

 

[Charlie Harper]

Thrilled to see Shogun fighting well (and smart). Excellent win for him, although it pains me to admit that it's time for Chuck to hang them up. Anderson put on his second stinker in a row. Although part of the blame goes to Thales, naturally, the dude is a completely different fighter from the wrecking machine that tore through the division up until the Henderson fight. Seems like he's just bored, and decided that it's up to his challengers to bring the fight to him, shedding the killer instinct that made him so popular. Beyond disappointing, considering he was the surest bet for a dazzling striking display every single time he fought.

well there are some nice rumors out today. if they are true, Silva will fight Forres Griffin next at UFC 101 in Philly ! i am guessing it sells out in a few minutes. and if it is true, it doesn't give Anderson much time and Forrest will engage him

[edit] Announced matchupsLightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian[5][6] Light Heavyweight bout: Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin[1] Welterweight bout: Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks[7] Middleweight bout: Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove[8] Lightweight bout: JrewgdNeer vs. Kurt Pellegrino[9] Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs. Alessio Sakara[10] Welterweight bout: John Howard vs. Tamdan McCrory[11] Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer[12] Welterweight bout: Danillo Villefort vs. Jesse Lennox[13] Lightweight bout: David Baron vs. Rob Emerson[14] Lightweight bout: Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley[15]

Weak card after the top 2 fights but wow. Can't wait.

 

[modogg]

Thrilled to see Shogun fighting well (and smart). Excellent win for him, although it pains me to admit that it's time for Chuck to hang them up.

Anderson put on his second stinker in a row. Although part of the blame goes to Thales, naturally, the dude is a completely different fighter from the wrecking machine that tore through the division up until the Henderson fight. Seems like he's just bored, and decided that it's up to his challengers to bring the fight to him, shedding the killer instinct that made him so popular. Beyond disappointing, considering he was the surest bet for a dazzling striking display every single time he fought.

well there are some nice rumors out today. if they are true, Silva will fight Forres Griffin next at UFC 101 in Philly ! i am guessing it sells out in a few minutes. and if it is true, it doesn't give Anderson much time and Forrest will engage him

Sucks that it won't be a title fight thoughWould still look forward to it

Interesting timing, since just yesterday I was reading about Griffin training with Anderson Silva in anticipation of his upcoming fight with Wanderlei

I thought it was Rich Franklin training with Anderson, but that is strange if it is the case. the timing for Silva is tough too, has to jump right back in and has 3 months to get ready for Forrest. he left the last fight without a scratch so maybe not too big of a deal

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Thrilled to see Shogun fighting well (and smart). Excellent win for him, although it pains me to admit that it's time for Chuck to hang them up.

Anderson put on his second stinker in a row. Although part of the blame goes to Thales, naturally, the dude is a completely different fighter from the wrecking machine that tore through the division up until the Henderson fight. Seems like he's just bored, and decided that it's up to his challengers to bring the fight to him, shedding the killer instinct that made him so popular. Beyond disappointing, considering he was the surest bet for a dazzling striking display every single time he fought.

well there are some nice rumors out today. if they are true, Silva will fight Forres Griffin next at UFC 101 in Philly ! i am guessing it sells out in a few minutes. and if it is true, it doesn't give Anderson much time and Forrest will engage him

Sucks that it won't be a title fight thoughWould still look forward to it

Interesting timing, since just yesterday I was reading about Griffin training with Anderson Silva in anticipation of his upcoming fight with Wanderlei

I thought it was Rich Franklin training with Anderson, but that is strange if it is the case. the timing for Silva is tough too, has to jump right back in and has 3 months to get ready for Forrest. he left the last fight without a scratch so maybe not too big of a deal

Yeah, I confused the twoAll them white folk look alike

 

[modogg]

Thoughts on how entertaining 98 will be?Evans v MachidaHughes v SerraI see Houston Alexander is on the card. He looked like a beast at one point. What happened to him?

I'm looking forward to it. Machida is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC, and I actually find his fights very interesting/entertaining to watch. To me, he allows you to really understand the tactical and strategic aspects of MMA while also keeping the fight exciting (to me, at least). I'm curious to see 1) if Rashad's wrestling is strong enough to take Machida down 2) if Rashad does take Machida down, can he avoid getting submitted 3) what the stand-up is going to look like since bother fighters are counterstrikers. I can only hope this doesn't result in a lot of dancing with minimal action.Houston Alexander's fights are usually pretty entertaining, Sherk-Edgar has some potential and I look forward to seeing Okami who could be next in line for a MW title fight with Anderson Silva.

Ughhh, sucks. Poor Okami got injured again (torn ligament) and is off the UFC 98 card. You have to feel for the guy, but man i was willing to put quite a bit on him, quite a shame. I was also going to parlay him and Sherk and i think it would have been a very, very solid bet. Well, i'm pretty sure i take Dan Miller now. He is not overly impressive, but he has been training all this time, as opposed to Herman who is just picking up this fight. Herman has not been very impressive as well

 

[Balco]

Thoughts on how entertaining 98 will be?Evans v MachidaHughes v SerraI see Houston Alexander is on the card. He looked like a beast at one point. What happened to him?

I'm looking forward to it. Machida is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC, and I actually find his fights very interesting/entertaining to watch. To me, he allows you to really understand the tactical and strategic aspects of MMA while also keeping the fight exciting (to me, at least). I'm curious to see 1) if Rashad's wrestling is strong enough to take Machida down 2) if Rashad does take Machida down, can he avoid getting submitted 3) what the stand-up is going to look like since bother fighters are counterstrikers. I can only hope this doesn't result in a lot of dancing with minimal action.Houston Alexander's fights are usually pretty entertaining, Sherk-Edgar has some potential and I look forward to seeing Okami who could be next in line for a MW title fight with Anderson Silva.

Ughhh, sucks. Poor Okami got injured again (torn ligament) and is off the UFC 98 card. You have to feel for the guy, but man i was willing to put quite a bit on him, quite a shame. I was also going to parlay him and Sherk and i think it would have been a very, very solid bet. Well, i'm pretty sure i take Dan Miller now. He is not overly impressive, but he has been training all this time, as opposed to Herman who is just picking up this fight. Herman has not been very impressive as well

I'll be watching there live. My first UFC event in Vegas. I was dissapointed Lesnar got scratched until I saw it was replaced with Machida-Evans. Machida is one of my favorite fighters.

 

[modogg]

Ughhh, sucks. Poor Okami got injured again (torn ligament) and is off the UFC 98 card. You have to feel for the guy, but man i was willing to put quite a bit on him, quite a shame. I was also going to parlay him and Sherk and i think it would have been a very, very solid bet. Well, i'm pretty sure i take Dan Miller now. He is not overly impressive, but he has been training all this time, as opposed to Herman who is just picking up this fight. Herman has not been very impressive as well

I'll be watching there live. My first UFC event in Vegas. I was dissapointed Lesnar got scratched until I saw it was replaced with Machida-Evans. Machida is one of my favorite fighters.

wow have a good time. i went to UFC 78 in NJ, and i recommend joining the UFC fight club if you have $80 to spend. there isn't much use to it, but if you are going to a live show it gets you into some cool things. the Q&A session with a fighter is cool, and every one talks to you. I must have talked to Joe Silva for about 45 minutes, that's a cool guy to pick his brain.

 

[sheerterror]

Thoughts on how entertaining 98 will be?Evans v MachidaHughes v SerraI see Houston Alexander is on the card. He looked like a beast at one point. What happened to him?

I'm looking forward to it. Machida is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC, and I actually find his fights very interesting/entertaining to watch. To me, he allows you to really understand the tactical and strategic aspects of MMA while also keeping the fight exciting (to me, at least). I'm curious to see 1) if Rashad's wrestling is strong enough to take Machida down 2) if Rashad does take Machida down, can he avoid getting submitted 3) what the stand-up is going to look like since bother fighters are counterstrikers. I can only hope this doesn't result in a lot of dancing with minimal action.Houston Alexander's fights are usually pretty entertaining, Sherk-Edgar has some potential and I look forward to seeing Okami who could be next in line for a MW title fight with Anderson Silva.

Ughhh, sucks. Poor Okami got injured again (torn ligament) and is off the UFC 98 card. You have to feel for the guy, but man i was willing to put quite a bit on him, quite a shame. I was also going to parlay him and Sherk and i think it would have been a very, very solid bet. Well, i'm pretty sure i take Dan Miller now. He is not overly impressive, but he has been training all this time, as opposed to Herman who is just picking up this fight. Herman has not been very impressive as well

Have they put a line out for Herman-Miller yet?I'm going to have to do some more research on Miller for sure - but Herman [pleasantly] surprised me with his performance against Loiseau2 weeks ago. I know he didn't take much punishment, but is the 5 weeks off going to be enough for him to recuperate and get ready for a tough opponent? Should be interesting for sure, I'll need to see a line before I can decide what to do, but as of now there might be too many question marks for me to bet that one.

 

[modogg]

I agree Sheer, but i know there is a lot of hype around the Miller brothers, especailly Dan. biggest i would go is a half unit or throw him in a parlay.

And i have been absolutely destroyed betting this week on other things and i think that train will start to come to an end for me soon, so i may be looking for good bets in MMA a little more. Now I will start by saying i don't know a ton about Sengoku and the fighters in it, but this guy suggests there are good bets to be had:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/4/30/86038...betting-preview

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/4/30/86011...er-sengoku-viii

I need to look more into it myself, but the bets he suggests he likes have more favorable lines than what he is already playing them at. I have to think the books have limited info. on the Japanese MMA scene, so it may be a place to take advantage of some lines. What does anybody think?

And does anybody follow Sengoku? Here are the matches, any insight would be appreciated:

Sengoku Featherweight Grand Prix Quarter-Final Bouts:

-Hatsu Hioki (18-3-2; #3 Featherweight in the World)* vs. Ronnie Mann (16-1-1)

-Nam Phan (15-5; #8 Featherweight in the World)* vs. Michihiro Omigawa (5-7-1)

-Marlon Sandro (13-0) vs. Nick Denis (7-0)

-Chan Sung Jung (6-0) vs. Masanori Kanehara (12-5-5)

Non-Tournament Bouts:

-Travis Wiuff (54-12) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (5-0)

-Kazunori Yokota (8-2-3) vs. Leonardo Santos (6-2)

-Alexandre "Xande" Ribeiro (1-0) vs. Keiichiro Yamamiya (34-23-9)

-Michael Costa (9-4) vs. Makoto Takimoto (4-5)

Main card airs in the United States on HDNet

For any of you guys with money left, there are some good values on some of the favorites, and the lines on sportsbook are favorable.

 

[sheerterror]

Don't know anything about these Japanese federations, but I love the sport and if I can find somebody to semi-tail with half a clue, I'll make some small action wagers. It's an excuse to do more research and find some more fighters to follow too..

 

[modogg]

Don't know anything about these Japanese federations, but I love the sport and if I can find somebody to semi-tail with half a clue, I'll make some small action wagers. It's an excuse to do more research and find some more fighters to follow too..

Sounds good, i'll look around a bit too. I am thinking that the fights will be tonight around 3 or 4 eastern time, so i guess the bets have to be in tonight.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Don't know anything about these Japanese federations, but I love the sport and if I can find somebody to semi-tail with half a clue, I'll make some small action wagers. It's an excuse to do more research and find some more fighters to follow too..

Sounds good, i'll look around a bit too. I am thinking that the fights will be tonight around 3 or 4 eastern time, so i guess the bets have to be in tonight.

I believe it begins at 3 AM ETActually being broadcast live on HDNet if you have that channelWorth a DVRing if you do IMO

 

[modogg]

Don't know anything about these Japanese federations, but I love the sport and if I can find somebody to semi-tail with half a clue, I'll make some small action wagers. It's an excuse to do more research and find some more fighters to follow too..

Sounds good, i'll look around a bit too. I am thinking that the fights will be tonight around 3 or 4 eastern time, so i guess the bets have to be in tonight.

I believe it begins at 3 AM ETActually being broadcast live on HDNet if you have that channelWorth a DVRing if you do IMO

Yeah HDNet has really come through with the MMA scene. I remember one of the main deciding factors in getting an HDTV was this channel when Eddie Alvarez was in the Dream Tournament. Definately makes watching it more fun having a little action on it too. i really don't many of the guys fighting at all, so i have to catch up.

 

[Pick]

I know it's not MMA but the Pacquiao/Hatton fight looks too good to pass up as far as paying for the PPV.

 

[modogg]

I know it's not MMA but the Pacquiao/Hatton fight looks too good to pass up as far as paying for the PPV.

I agree, but unfortunately i took a lumping this week betting so I can't do it. But it should be good. People are loving Pacquiano, and he is real good, but beating an ancient De La Hoya was not overly impressive. Hatton's size advantage over Manny should help him a bit, but it should be good. and as for betting, i took over 9.5 rounds on it. Any opinions? I really can't see Manny stopping Hatton early, and I am thinking Manny can dodge Hatton's assault for the beginning of the fight.

 

[modogg]

Don't know anything about these Japanese federations, but I love the sport and if I can find somebody to semi-tail with half a clue, I'll make some small action wagers. It's an excuse to do more research and find some more fighters to follow too..

Alright, i think this will be somewhat my card. Sheer i hope you check in with some thoughts, or anybody else who has any thoughts on this Sengoku card:Kanehara +145 .33 unitSantos +120 .33 unitand 2 parlays: Santos, Hioki, Phan, and BlancoAnd i took one with Hioki, Phan, Ribiero and Blanco

 

[sheerterror]

I'm staying off this one Mo - good luck!

 

[modogg]

I'm staying off this one Mo - good luck!

Probably a smart thing to do. I put in a few more parlays mixing in Phan and Wiuff and Santos. I do think there was an advantage to be had here, i just don't know what it is. but thanks, I'm hoping i wake up tomorrow and the account is a little better off. If i break even i will be happy.

 

[modogg]

I'm staying off this one Mo - good luck!

Probably a smart thing to do. I put in a few more parlays mixing in Phan and Wiuff and Santos. I do think there was an advantage to be had here, i just don't know what it is. but thanks, I'm hoping i wake up tomorrow and the account is a little better off. If i break even i will be happy.

I lost 2 or 3 of my parlays because of Blanco's soccer kick DQ'ing him. what a bunch of crap, just make it a no contest don't give Blanco the loss . Crappy letdown there. Good show though, i definately recommend people catch it too. i think it replays tomorrow evening. Now another guy i got keeps getting kneed in the balls.

 

[Cavalier]

8:30 PM 32523 RASHAD EVANS

+165

32524 LYOTO MACHIDA

-205

Evans is a dog?

 

[modogg]

8:30 PM 32523 RASHAD EVANS +165 32524 LYOTO MACHIDA -205 Evans is a dog?

surprising to me too, but it has been the line ever since it went up. i would think both at -115, or even Machida at -135 or something.

 

[Cavalier]

8:30 PM 32523 RASHAD EVANS +165 32524 LYOTO MACHIDA -205 Evans is a dog?

surprising to me too, but it has been the line ever since it went up. i would think both at -115, or even Machida at -135 or something.

Did he get hurt training or something? Seems like a no brainer with these odds.

 

[sheerterror]

8:30 PM 32523 RASHAD EVANS +165 32524 LYOTO MACHIDA -205 Evans is a dog?

surprising to me too, but it has been the line ever since it went up. i would think both at -115, or even Machida at -135 or something.

Did he get hurt training or something? Seems like a no brainer with these odds.

I wasn't surprised that Machida was favored, although this line might be a tad high. I truly believe that he is the most well rounded fighter in all of the UFC right now with the exception of GSP. Evans has heavy hands and great wrestling - but Machida is extremely elusive on his feet which makes him very hard to hit and take down because of his Karate background. Evans is a counterpuncher and tends to get the best of his opponents by out-waiting them. I don't think he'll be able to implement this same strategy with the ever patient Machida who is a true tactician. I'm really not sure how Rashad can win this one less "catching" Machida, who has given no indication that he ever let's his defense down. Even if Evans can take Machida to the ground, he's got some pretty slick Jiu Jitsu that will allow him to stay out of trouble.

 

[Cavalier]

8:30 PM 32523 RASHAD EVANS +165 32524 LYOTO MACHIDA -205 Evans is a dog?

surprising to me too, but it has been the line ever since it went up. i would think both at -115, or even Machida at -135 or something.

Did he get hurt training or something? Seems like a no brainer with these odds.

I wasn't surprised that Machida was favored, although this line might be a tad high. I truly believe that he is the most well rounded fighter in all of the UFC right now with the exception of GSP. Evans has heavy hands and great wrestling - but Machida is extremely elusive on his feet which makes him very hard to hit and take down because of his Karate background. Evans is a counterpuncher and tends to get the best of his opponents by out-waiting them. I don't think he'll be able to implement this same strategy with the ever patient Machida who is a true tactician. I'm really not sure how Rashad can win this one less "catching" Machida, who has given no indication that he ever let's his defense down. Even if Evans can take Machida to the ground, he's got some pretty slick Jiu Jitsu that will allow him to stay out of trouble.

I seen his fight record and I didn't see a better wrestler than Evans that he has fought, hell BJ took him to a decision. He knocked out Franklin and did well against Tito but I think Rashard even on the ultimate fighter fight much bigger fighters and Machida found many smaller. Rashard has fought better fighters. I don't see how Machida can win unless it is a boing decision but I think Evans might be to explosive to let that happen. IMO. Having said that I think I would have a tough time pickingt this fight straight up, but with the odds, how can I not?

 

[sheerterror]

8:30 PM 32523 RASHAD EVANS +165 32524 LYOTO MACHIDA -205 Evans is a dog?

surprising to me too, but it has been the line ever since it went up. i would think both at -115, or even Machida at -135 or something.

Did he get hurt training or something? Seems like a no brainer with these odds.

I wasn't surprised that Machida was favored, although this line might be a tad high. I truly believe that he is the most well rounded fighter in all of the UFC right now with the exception of GSP. Evans has heavy hands and great wrestling - but Machida is extremely elusive on his feet which makes him very hard to hit and take down because of his Karate background. Evans is a counterpuncher and tends to get the best of his opponents by out-waiting them. I don't think he'll be able to implement this same strategy with the ever patient Machida who is a true tactician. I'm really not sure how Rashad can win this one less "catching" Machida, who has given no indication that he ever let's his defense down. Even if Evans can take Machida to the ground, he's got some pretty slick Jiu Jitsu that will allow him to stay out of trouble.

I seen his fight record and I didn't see a better wrestler than Evans that he has fought, hell BJ took him to a decision. He knocked out Franklin and did well against Tito but I think Rashard even on the ultimate fighter fight much bigger fighters and Machida found many smaller. Rashard has fought better fighters. I don't see how Machida can win unless it is a boing decision but I think Evans might be to explosive to let that happen. IMO. Having said that I think I would have a tough time pickingt this fight straight up, but with the odds, how can I not?

Ortiz is a very good wrestler - not up to Rashad's standards but he was definitely one of the elite wrestlers in the UFC at the time of the fight. I'll have to watch the fight again, but I believe Ortiz only managed to take Machida down once and was frustrated by his style the entire fight. I don't think having to take BJ Penn to a decision (and winning) should be a knock on anyone regardless of the weight discrepancy at the time of the fight. Rashad fought bigger fighters during his time on TUF because he was fighting as a heavyweight. He's moved down a weight class and done pretty well, but I don't personally think his fight resume, or the way he has won his fights, is any more impressive than Machida's. Evans was arguably losing his fight with Liddell until Chuck dropped his hands and Rashad sent his head into next week. Now, this isn't to discredit the victory by any means, but I think we can all agree that this was not the same Chuck Liddell, and that has since been confirmed by his performance against Shogun at UFC 97. Machida, on the other hand, has won almost all of his UFC fights by completely frustrating his opponents en route to easy, unanimous decision victories. Somebody posted a link here a while back about how Machida is one of the most accurate strikers in the history of the sport and has literally never lost a round in the octagon on the judges score cards. And, just when everybody was calling him a boring fighter that didn't have any power, he went and dismantled a then undefeated Thiago Silva in a battle essentially for the number 1 contender spot by first round knockout. As a bettor, there's no fighter I'd rather back than a guy like Machida who is going to 1) strike accurately 2) fight patiently and follow out his gameplan 3) be difficult to hit/take down. Knowing his penchant for outpointing his opponents on a round to round basis, there's really only one way for Rashad to win this as far as I can tell - and that's to catch Machida like he did Liddell and knock him out. And as I said earlier, given Machida's defensive prowess and patience, I don't think he'll be putting himself in that position.

 

[Charlie Harper]

Ortiz is a very good wrestler - not up to Rashad's standards but he was definitely one of the elite wrestlers in the UFC at the time of the fight. I'll have to watch the fight again, but I believe Ortiz only managed to take Machida down once and was frustrated by his style the entire fight. I don't think having to take BJ Penn to a decision (and winning) should be a knock on anyone regardless of the weight discrepancy at the time of the fight. Rashad fought bigger fighters during his time on TUF because he was fighting as a heavyweight. He's moved down a weight class and done pretty well, but I don't personally think his fight resume, or the way he has won his fights, is any more impressive than Machida's. Evans was arguably losing his fight with Liddell until Chuck dropped his hands and Rashad sent his head into next week. Now, this isn't to discredit the victory by any means, but I think we can all agree that this was not the same Chuck Liddell, and that has since been confirmed by his performance against Shogun at UFC 97. Machida, on the other hand, has won almost all of his UFC fights by completely frustrating his opponents en route to easy, unanimous decision victories. Somebody posted a link here a while back about how Machida is one of the most accurate strikers in the history of the sports and has literally never lost a round in the octagon on the judges score cards. And, just when everybody was calling him a boring fighter that didn't have any power, he went and dismantled a then undefeated Thiago Silva in a battle essentially for the number 1 contender spot by first round knockout. As a bettor, there's no fighter I'd rather back than a guy like Machida who is going to 1) strike accurately 2) fight patiently and follow out his gameplan 3) be difficult to hit/take down. Knowing his penchant for outpointing his opponents on a round to round basis, there's really only one way for Rashad to win this as far as I can tell - and that's to catch Machida like he did Liddell and knock him out. And as I said earlier, given Machida's defensive prowess and patience, I don't think he'll be putting himself in that position.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Ortiz is a very good wrestler - not up to Rashad's standards but he was definitely one of the elite wrestlers in the UFC at the time of the fight. I'll have to watch the fight again, but I believe Ortiz only managed to take Machida down once and was frustrated by his style the entire fight. I don't think having to take BJ Penn to a decision (and winning) should be a knock on anyone regardless of the weight discrepancy at the time of the fight. Rashad fought bigger fighters during his time on TUF because he was fighting as a heavyweight. He's moved down a weight class and done pretty well, but I don't personally think his fight resume, or the way he has won his fights, is any more impressive than Machida's. Evans was arguably losing his fight with Liddell until Chuck dropped his hands and Rashad sent his head into next week. Now, this isn't to discredit the victory by any means, but I think we can all agree that this was not the same Chuck Liddell, and that has since been confirmed by his performance against Shogun at UFC 97. Machida, on the other hand, has won almost all of his UFC fights by completely frustrating his opponents en route to easy, unanimous decision victories. Somebody posted a link here a while back about how Machida is one of the most accurate strikers in the history of the sports and has literally never lost a round in the octagon on the judges score cards. And, just when everybody was calling him a boring fighter that didn't have any power, he went and dismantled a then undefeated Thiago Silva in a battle essentially for the number 1 contender spot by first round knockout. As a bettor, there's no fighter I'd rather back than a guy like Machida who is going to 1) strike accurately 2) fight patiently and follow out his gameplan 3) be difficult to hit/take down. Knowing his penchant for outpointing his opponents on a round to round basis, there's really only one way for Rashad to win this as far as I can tell - and that's to catch Machida like he did Liddell and knock him out. And as I said earlier, given Machida's defensive prowess and patience, I don't think he'll be putting himself in that position.

Yeah, I agree with all of that too. I hate to say Evans should lose though because it's been a while since I haven't thought that about Evans yet he always wins.

 

[modogg]

Ortiz is a very good wrestler - not up to Rashad's standards but he was definitely one of the elite wrestlers in the UFC at the time of the fight. I'll have to watch the fight again, but I believe Ortiz only managed to take Machida down once and was frustrated by his style the entire fight. I don't think having to take BJ Penn to a decision (and winning) should be a knock on anyone regardless of the weight discrepancy at the time of the fight. Rashad fought bigger fighters during his time on TUF because he was fighting as a heavyweight. He's moved down a weight class and done pretty well, but I don't personally think his fight resume, or the way he has won his fights, is any more impressive than Machida's. Evans was arguably losing his fight with Liddell until Chuck dropped his hands and Rashad sent his head into next week. Now, this isn't to discredit the victory by any means, but I think we can all agree that this was not the same Chuck Liddell, and that has since been confirmed by his performance against Shogun at UFC 97.

Machida, on the other hand, has won almost all of his UFC fights by completely frustrating his opponents en route to easy, unanimous decision victories. Somebody posted a link here a while back about how Machida is one of the most accurate strikers in the history of the sports and has literally never lost a round in the octagon on the judges score cards. And, just when everybody was calling him a boring fighter that didn't have any power, he went and dismantled a then undefeated Thiago Silva in a battle essentially for the number 1 contender spot by first round knockout. As a bettor, there's no fighter I'd rather back than a guy like Machida who is going to 1) strike accurately 2) fight patiently and follow out his gameplan 3) be difficult to hit/take down. Knowing his penchant for outpointing his opponents on a round to round basis, there's really only one way for Rashad to win this as far as I can tell - and that's to catch Machida like he did Liddell and knock him out. And as I said earlier, given Machida's defensive prowess and patience, I don't think he'll be putting himself in that position.

Yeah, I agree with all of that too. I hate to say Evans should lose though because it's been a while since I haven't thought that about Evans yet he always wins.

So i have been reading up on Machida and Evans (Man we must have been spoiled earlier because it feels like a real long time between UFC events) and still do not think there is a distinct advantage either way. I still think there is money to be made on the card (so pissed Okami got re-injured, but it may be a benefit if Dan Miller lives up to the hype), but here is an interesting point on Machida to pass the time. http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/5/7/868931...ints-from-lyoto (also the comments under the article have some good points too)

still not saying either will definately win, but i think Greg Jackson has studied Machida to find some sort of weakness. I'm glad it is a 5 round fight, because i would be concerned if it was 3 that both would measure eachother too long to not press the action enough. I'm definately looking forward to it

and on a side note, the rumors are rapant that Rampage may be asked to be a coach of TUF 10, leading to the idea that he will coach against the winner of this fight to set-up his chance at the title. I also think Forrest deserves a re-match at some point, and if he is somehow able to get past Silva (don't know how he can, but hypothetically speaking) i have to think he gets a re-match immediately. i don't know if anyone else will get near a title shot for 3 fights or so (not sure who would be deserving, besides these 4 for now).

 

[sheerterror]

Mo, you literally bumped this thread right as I was searching for it to make a comment on something else. The article you posted is interesting, and I'll need to rewatch Machida's fights (BTW, do you know of any archives online to find past fights?) but I think this author might be grasping at straws a bit in trying to find a true "weakness." I'm not saying the guy is unbeatable/un-hurtable/un-takedownable by any means, but much like A.S he seems to have this intangible ability to elude dangerous situations - and when he does get in to them, he knows how to minimize that damage. So for the author to say Rashad needs to work the clinch and be able to hold Machida there to inflict some damage dirty boxing - I'm not sure how feasible it is, given Machida's advantage in the clinch and his ability to use it to gain position. If Rashad was Anderson - a truly dominant fighter in the clinch, I would think this would definitely be something to keep an eye on - but Machida knows that this is a tactic he will be able to use to his advantage should he feel in danger at any point while standing.

I said it earlier and I still believe it, I think Rashad's only glaring chance to win this fight is to KO/TKO Machida by catching him. Of course this can happen, but I think Machida is way too careful, defensive minded and difficult to hit to allow himself to get countered and hurt by Evans. I absolutely do not see Evans outpointing Machida at all - I simply don't think he has the technical ability to do so. For Machida backers, it might actually be a good hedge to take Rashad by stoppage if you get a very nice + number, because I think that's his only real way to win this one.

What I wanted to mention originally was I just saw that Kevin Randleman is meeting Mike Whitehead at the Strikeforce event on June 6th. I think we could see some incredible value on Whitehead given Randleman's name value. Whitehead has a pretty damn impressive resume considering he's only fought 1 UFC fight. I think he destroys Randleman, who is old, one dimensional and has fought once in the last 2+ years. Of course, Whitehead could very well end up being a -500 favorite, I don't really know much about setting lines.

 

[modogg]

Mo, you literally bumped this thread right as I was searching for it to make a comment on something else. The article you posted is interesting, and I'll need to rewatch Machida's fights (BTW, do you know of any archives online to find past fights?) but I think this author might be grasping at straws a bit in trying to find a true "weakness." I'm not saying the guy is unbeatable/un-hurtable/un-takedownable by any means, but much like A.S he seems to have this intangible ability to elude dangerous situations - and when he does get in to them, he knows how to minimize that damage. So for the author to say Rashad needs to work the clinch and be able to hold Machida there to inflict some damage dirty boxing - I'm not sure how feasible it is, given Machida's advantage in the clinch and his ability to use it to gain position. If Rashad was Anderson - a truly dominant fighter in the clinch, I would think this would definitely be something to keep an eye on - but Machida knows that this is a tactic he will be able to use to his advantage should he feel in danger at any point while standing.I said it earlier and I still believe it, I think Rashad's only glaring chance to win this fight is to KO/TKO Machida by catching him. Of course this can happen, but I think Machida is way too careful, defensive minded and difficult to hit to allow himself to get countered and hurt by Evans. I absolutely do not see Evans outpointing Machida at all - I simply don't think he has the technical ability to do so. For Machida backers, it might actually be a good hedge to take Rashad by stoppage if you get a very nice + number, because I think that's his only real way to win this one.What I wanted to mention originally was I just saw that Kevin Randleman is meeting Mike Whitehead at the Strikeforce event on June 6th. I think we could see some incredible value on Whitehead given Randleman's name value. Whitehead has a pretty damn impressive resume considering he's only fought 1 UFC fight. I think he destroys Randleman, who is old, one dimensional and has fought once in the last 2+ years. Of course, Whitehead could very well end up being a -500 favorite, I don't really know much about setting lines.

i hear ya about Randleman, but i have never been that impressed by Whitehead either. I think the last time i saw him fight was when he fought Babalu at Affliction and he looked horrible. Of course Babalu looked better, but i am nervous betting on a guy who has looked to underperform almost every chance i have seen him in. I am thinking Whitehead is one of those gym warriors, a great guy to train with and spar, but does not step up when he gets in the actual fight. Now i am basing this on not much knowledge at all, but just an instinctual thing. as for Machida and Rashad, i figured out where i am going with it. If Evans ever gets over +210, i will put $40 on him or something, but outside of that i don't know if i would do much with this bet. I may put Machida in a paraly or 2 though. I honestly have thought about this fight quite a bit, and i really think this is one of the best fights out there. I hear what you are saying with Evans not out-pointing Rashad, and i will have to watch some old fights too.as for catching old fights, youtube has a few, but the best source i find is the website that does the fantasy MMA, mmaplayground.com. they have a ton of videos. alright, back to Evans-Machida. I don't see Machida knocking out Evans, I know Evans has caught some heavy hands lately. in fact i can't remember seeing Rashad ever that rocked from a shot. I have to think Rashad has good BJJ, both offensive and defensive, after working with Jackson for over 2+ years at this point, and i can't remember seeing him look like he was going to be caught in a submission either. So i really think this fight goes the distance, or Rashad knocks out Machida, but like you Sheer, i can't really seeing Machida exposing himself to that either. Going to the judges cards, it is hard to predict what they will always do.

 

[millertyme1]

 

 

[Charlie Harper]

Fight of the year: Jose Canseco vs Hong Man Choi @ Dream 9.

Good gawd is Canseco going to get punished. I really hope I bet on this.

 

[modogg]

Fight of the year: Jose Canseco vs Hong Man Choi @ Dream 9.Good gawd is Canseco going to get punished. I really hope I bet on this.

Man i couldn't agree more. They definately can't set the line high enough for this one. I am hoping they are banking on Choi is only known as the guy who lost to Fedor, and Canseco's name makes him a favorite with the public. I know Vai Sikahema kicked the crap out of him in the first round, maybe even knocking him out with 12 oz. gloves. I think he recently got in the ring with Dannie Bonnaducci too, so you know it is all for the money. Thank God Japan doesn't have any kind of athletic commissionn that would care about this. i am at the bare bones with my accounts, but i would likely put in whatever i have left on Choi

 

[modogg]

so I'd love to know what people think of the Sherk-Edgar fight. I may have to put some more money into my accounts, but i think Sherk is a virtual lock here (i really don't think there is any certain locks in MMA, or very few). I think i am basing a lot of it on the Edgar-Greg Maynard fight. Maynard basically outwrestled Frankie, and he was bigger and stronger than Edgar. I think Sherk can implement almost the same gameplan. And I am not a fan of Sherks, really never have been (though if i load up on him and he wins for me i will be closer to being a fan), but i can't think of a fight he has had at 155 where he has been outclassed outside of his fight with B.J. Frankie is good, but i think Sherk will win this almost every time they would fight. Anybody have any thoughts?

Also, i have seen the other lines at bestfightodds.com. I would think about taking Professor X at +160 and I like Gusmao over K-Sos at -118.

 

[Clayton Gray]

I agree with Sherk easily over Edgar.

 

[sheerterror]

so I'd love to know what people think of the Sherk-Edgar fight. I may have to put some more money into my accounts, but i think Sherk is a virtual lock here (i really don't think there is any certain locks in MMA, or very few). I think i am basing a lot of it on the Edgar-Greg Maynard fight. Maynard basically outwrestled Frankie, and he was bigger and stronger than Edgar. I think Sherk can implement almost the same gameplan. And I am not a fan of Sherks, really never have been (though if i load up on him and he wins for me i will be closer to being a fan), but i can't think of a fight he has had at 155 where he has been outclassed outside of his fight with B.J. Frankie is good, but i think Sherk will win this almost every time they would fight. Anybody have any thoughts?Also, i have seen the other lines at bestfightodds.com. I would think about taking Professor X at +160 and I like Gusmao over K-Sos at -118.

I definitely like Sherk and may have my biggest bet of the night on him.

 

[sheerterror]

Fight of the year: Jose Canseco vs Hong Man Choi @ Dream 9.Good gawd is Canseco going to get punished. I really hope I bet on this.

Man i couldn't agree more. They definately can't set the line high enough for this one. I am hoping they are banking on Choi is only known as the guy who lost to Fedor, and Canseco's name makes him a favorite with the public. I know Vai Sikahema kicked the crap out of him in the first round, maybe even knocking him out with 12 oz. gloves. I think he recently got in the ring with Dannie Bonnaducci too, so you know it is all for the money. Thank God Japan doesn't have any kind of athletic commissionn that would care about this. i am at the bare bones with my accounts, but i would likely put in whatever i have left on Choi

I'm almost positive I came across a number on a message board somewhere, and it was something unbettable like -3000.

 

[modogg]

so I'd love to know what people think of the Sherk-Edgar fight. I may have to put some more money into my accounts, but i think Sherk is a virtual lock here (i really don't think there is any certain locks in MMA, or very few). I think i am basing a lot of it on the Edgar-Greg Maynard fight. Maynard basically outwrestled Frankie, and he was bigger and stronger than Edgar. I think Sherk can implement almost the same gameplan. And I am not a fan of Sherks, really never have been (though if i load up on him and he wins for me i will be closer to being a fan), but i can't think of a fight he has had at 155 where he has been outclassed outside of his fight with B.J. Frankie is good, but i think Sherk will win this almost every time they would fight. Anybody have any thoughts?Also, i have seen the other lines at bestfightodds.com. I would think about taking Professor X at +160 and I like Gusmao over K-Sos at -118.

I definitely like Sherk and may have my biggest bet of the night on him.

Uh-oh, it looks like whatever my balance is by the end of next week (hopefuly more than $200) will likely go into Sherk. I won't live or die by Sherk, but i am really not sure how Edgar could win this one. i don't see him knocking Sherk out, and i doubt he'll outpoint him because i assume Sherk will have top position (most of the time) when they are on the groundA possible submission, but i have to think Sherk has fought guys with excellent BJJ enough that he won't get caught in something dumb

 

[modogg]

so I'd love to know what people think of the Sherk-Edgar fight. I may have to put some more money into my accounts, but i think Sherk is a virtual lock here (i really don't think there is any certain locks in MMA, or very few). I think i am basing a lot of it on the Edgar-Greg Maynard fight. Maynard basically outwrestled Frankie, and he was bigger and stronger than Edgar. I think Sherk can implement almost the same gameplan. And I am not a fan of Sherks, really never have been (though if i load up on him and he wins for me i will be closer to being a fan), but i can't think of a fight he has had at 155 where he has been outclassed outside of his fight with B.J. Frankie is good, but i think Sherk will win this almost every time they would fight. Anybody have any thoughts?Also, i have seen the other lines at bestfightodds.com. I would think about taking Professor X at +160 and I like Gusmao over K-Sos at -118.

I definitely like Sherk and may have my biggest bet of the night on him.

well it looks like others like Sherk too. He was -260 a day or 2 ago, but it -295 today. He is getting up there, and i don't have much money to put in on him. hopefuly i can make a little and put some on him before next Saturday

 

[modogg]

wow i didn't realize all of the MMA to bet on this weekend. Thye have lines up for the strikeforce event and the Call to Arms Event. Bobby Lashley is -1150, but there is some value for some of these, i will have to look a little more tomorrow. anybody have any thoughts?

 

[sheerterror]

wow i didn't realize all of the MMA to bet on this weekend. Thye have lines up for the strikeforce event and the Call to Arms Event. Bobby Lashley is -1150, but there is some value for some of these, i will have to look a little more tomorrow. anybody have any thoughts?

Unfamiliar with a lot of those fighters so I'll likely stay off.What do you think the line will be on Mousasi over Sokoudjou at Dream.9? I'll likely be backing him regardless of the price and also to win the openweight tournament.

 

[modogg]

wow i didn't realize all of the MMA to bet on this weekend. Thye have lines up for the strikeforce event and the Call to Arms Event. Bobby Lashley is -1150, but there is some value for some of these, i will have to look a little more tomorrow. anybody have any thoughts?

Unfamiliar with a lot of those fighters so I'll likely stay off.What do you think the line will be on Mousasi over Sokoudjou at Dream.9? I'll likely be backing him regardless of the price and also to win the openweight tournament.

i think Mousasi -250 or -300, and if they do tournament odds he may be even. as for the weekend, i will be taking:Aina for 3/4 unit: impressed with his fight against Diaz, at +225 worth a riskEastman: -115 probably one unit, i think he wins this oneCook: $20 at +650: I just can't overlook the +650 against Lashley. I hear this guy Cook has heavy hands so he has a chance. that may be it, i got over-zealous for the Sengoku card and got burned pretty good. Light betting on some underdogs, and only favorites i may consider are Eastman and David Heath

 

[modogg]

wow i didn't realize all of the MMA to bet on this weekend. Thye have lines up for the strikeforce event and the Call to Arms Event. Bobby Lashley is -1150, but there is some value for some of these, i will have to look a little more tomorrow. anybody have any thoughts?

Unfamiliar with a lot of those fighters so I'll likely stay off.What do you think the line will be on Mousasi over Sokoudjou at Dream.9? I'll likely be backing him regardless of the price and also to win the openweight tournament.

i think Mousasi -250 or -300, and if they do tournament odds he may be even. as for the weekend, i will be taking:Aina for 3/4 unit: impressed with his fight against Diaz, at +225 worth a riskEastman: -115 probably one unit, i think he wins this oneCook: $20 at +650: I just can't overlook the +650 against Lashley. I hear this guy Cook has heavy hands so he has a chance. that may be it, i got over-zealous for the Sengoku card and got burned pretty good. Light betting on some underdogs, and only favorites i may consider are Eastman and David Heath

so i did alright with the above. I didn't see the Aina fight, but from what i read he won because of an illegal knee, but i will take it. Cook was a shot in the dark, and Eastman did well. Funny thing happened though, and i bet twice as much on Heath to win as i did Eastman so i ended up losing on the event . and now i am really screwed up with UFC 98. I really wish i had another account or 2, because the rest of the lines went up on sportsbook, and they are not what i thought. I was looking into some live underdogs, and they ended up posting as favorites (Professor X, a.k.a. Foupa-Pokam, Brock Larson, and Andre Gusmao). Really screwed with my head with these, and i know all 3 were underdogs as of 2 days ago. anyway, here are the current odds at sportsbook:Machida -210 vs. Evans +170Hughes -325 vs. Serra +250Sherk -365 vs. Edgar +285Nover -500 vs. Bradley +300Yoshida -525 vs. Wolff +325Foupa-Pokam -200 vs. McFedries +160Miller -155 vs. Chael Sonnen +125Larson -290 vs. Chris Wilson +230Barry -500 vs. Hague +300Roop -165 vs. Kaplan +135Gusmao -155 vs. K-Sos +125Man i am pissed about these lines. these were roughly the lines yesterday from bestfightodds.com:Rashad Evans (+190) vs. Lyoto Machida (-185)Matt Hughes (-250) vs. Matt Serra (+260)Frankie Edgar (+300) vs. Sean Sherk (-270)Dave Kaplan (+135) vs. George Roop (-135)Kyle Bradley (+300) vs. Phillipe Nover (-330)Brandon Wolff (+400) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-436)Pat Barry (-274) vs. Tim Hague (+255)Chris Wilson (-167) vs. Brock Larson (+120)Drew McFedries (-227) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+157)Krzysztof Soszynski (-118) vs. Andre Gusmao (-118)so i am a bit stumped since most of my money is in sportsbook, and they obviously have a better line setter for MMA than i had hoped for. So any thoughts on the fights that haven't been discussed. i may have to find some change laying around and try another book if this keeps happening. I was shocked when Sherk jumped from -265 to -365 in less than a week

 

[sheerterror]

I've seen a few people mentioning Prof. X, Gusmao and Larson as good "lesser known" bets, but I really have no opinions on the others. Don't beat yourself up over it too much - find the play(s) you LOVE and hammer them.

Did you see the Strikeforce card for June 6? MAN, I might be more excited about that one than UFC this Saturday: Lawler-Shields, Smith-Diaz, Baroni-Riggs, Randleman-Whitehead, and now Arlovski-Rogers. Should be a great night.

Oh, and Herring dropped out of his UFC 99 fight with Cain Velasquez, and will be replaced by Cheick Kongo. Time to see what Cain is really made of, and if he can make that step into the elite tier of the division. Should be a great fight, and I look forward to getting some nice value on Cain in that one.

 

[modogg]

I've seen a few people mentioning Prof. X, Gusmao and Larson as good "lesser known" bets, but I really have no opinions on the others. Don't beat yourself up over it too much - find the play(s) you LOVE and hammer them. Did you see the Strikeforce card for June 6? MAN, I might be more excited about that one than UFC this Saturday: Lawler-Shields, Smith-Diaz, Baroni-Riggs, Randleman-Whitehead, and now Arlovski-Rogers. Should be a great night.Oh, and Herring dropped out of his UFC 99 fight with Cain Velasquez, and will be replaced by Cheick Kongo. Time to see what Cain is really made of, and if he can make that step into the elite tier of the division. Should be a great fight, and I look forward to getting some nice value on Cain in that one.

yeah that strikeforce card is pretty nice. I wonder what the lines will be for it. I like Lawler to beat Shields, and those other one's are very interesting. Possibly like Smith over Diaz if he is +150 or more. I think Diaz is really an emotional fighter, why he does well against guys like Gomi and Shamrock, but doesn't excel against Noons and Aina. I can see Strikeforce would love to set-up Lawler-Diaz 2, which would be another good card down the line for them. They will have some staying power, but will need to sell some more guys. I am really looking forward to Eddie Alvarez fighting in the U.S. and it would be nice if Strikeforce would do an East Coast show for him when he comes in. And i saw that with Kongo too. I missed out on the Cain and Carwin train you guys were riding for a bit, and i feel like i should catch it now, but that isn't an easy fight with for Valesquez. we'll have to think about that one for a bit. and your right about not picking too many fights, that is where i got caught a few months ago. You're probably right, with the line not in their favor there is no need to force anything. i will have to look more into some of these match-ups, I may take Miller over Sonnen, and may lay off most of the rest. I am kicking myself a bit for taking Serra so early when he was +165 because i thought money would come in on him, but oh well. With him at +250, it certainly is worth a little bit to see what how he does. i would be tempted to add to him if i didn't already put 3/4 unit on him originally. i didn't see Hughes-Alves, and there is a little concern about any ring rust with Serra.

 

[Abrantes]

wow i didn't realize all of the MMA to bet on this weekend. Thye have lines up for the strikeforce event and the Call to Arms Event. Bobby Lashley is -1150, but there is some value for some of these, i will have to look a little more tomorrow. anybody have any thoughts?

Unfamiliar with a lot of those fighters so I'll likely stay off.What do you think the line will be on Mousasi over Sokoudjou at Dream.9? I'll likely be backing him regardless of the price and also to win the openweight tournament.

i think Mousasi -250 or -300, and if they do tournament odds he may be even. as for the weekend, i will be taking:Aina for 3/4 unit: impressed with his fight against Diaz, at +225 worth a riskEastman: -115 probably one unit, i think he wins this oneCook: $20 at +650: I just can't overlook the +650 against Lashley. I hear this guy Cook has heavy hands so he has a chance. that may be it, i got over-zealous for the Sengoku card and got burned pretty good. Light betting on some underdogs, and only favorites i may consider are Eastman and David Heath

so i did alright with the above. I didn't see the Aina fight, but from what i read he won because of an illegal knee, but i will take it. Cook was a shot in the dark, and Eastman did well. Funny thing happened though, and i bet twice as much on Heath to win as i did Eastman so i ended up losing on the event . and now i am really screwed up with UFC 98. I really wish i had another account or 2, because the rest of the lines went up on sportsbook, and they are not what i thought. I was looking into some live underdogs, and they ended up posting as favorites (Professor X, a.k.a. Foupa-Pokam, Brock Larson, and Andre Gusmao). Really screwed with my head with these, and i know all 3 were underdogs as of 2 days ago. anyway, here are the current odds at sportsbook:Machida -210 vs. Evans +170Hughes -325 vs. Serra +250Sherk -365 vs. Edgar +285Nover -500 vs. Bradley +300Yoshida -525 vs. Wolff +325Foupa-Pokam -200 vs. McFedries +160Miller -155 vs. Chael Sonnen +125Larson -290 vs. Chris Wilson +230Barry -500 vs. Hague +300Roop -165 vs. Kaplan +135Gusmao -155 vs. K-Sos +125Man i am pissed about these lines. these were roughly the lines yesterday from bestfightodds.com:Rashad Evans (+190) vs. Lyoto Machida (-185)Matt Hughes (-250) vs. Matt Serra (+260)Frankie Edgar (+300) vs. Sean Sherk (-270)Dave Kaplan (+135) vs. George Roop (-135)Kyle Bradley (+300) vs. Phillipe Nover (-330)Brandon Wolff (+400) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-436)Pat Barry (-274) vs. Tim Hague (+255)Chris Wilson (-167) vs. Brock Larson (+120)Drew McFedries (-227) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (+157)Krzysztof Soszynski (-118) vs. Andre Gusmao (-118)so i am a bit stumped since most of my money is in sportsbook, and they obviously have a better line setter for MMA than i had hoped for. So any thoughts on the fights that haven't been discussed. i may have to find some change laying around and try another book if this keeps happening. I was shocked when Sherk jumped from -265 to -365 in less than a week

The Wilson/Larson fight is the one I'm most unsure about, but Chris Wilson looks like a good bet at +230. Larson is the stronger fighter, and a better wrestler, but his striking is negligible and his ground game isn't impenetrable. In these situations I tend to lean towards superior wrestlers as safer bets, but Wilson is slick enough in all aspects of the game to be a good underdog bet here. As for Professor X vs. McFedries, I'll say one thing. I love McFedries' fights because there's no mystery to his style. He's gonna stand and bang, and he's got dynamite in his hands. Xavier is the more polished striker and all-around fighter, but there's always danger when you plan on striking against McFedries. I'll post a more detailed write-up tomorrow when I have more free time.

 

[modogg]

The Wilson/Larson fight is the one I'm most unsure about, but Chris Wilson looks like a good bet at +230. Larson is the stronger fighter, and a better wrestler, but his striking is negligible and his ground game isn't impenetrable. In these situations I tend to lean towards superior wrestlers as safer bets, but Wilson is slick enough in all aspects of the game to be a good underdog bet here. As for Professor X vs. McFedries, I'll say one thing. I love McFedries' fights because there's no mystery to his style. He's gonna stand and bang, and he's got dynamite in his hands. Xavier is the more polished striker and all-around fighter, but there's always danger when you plan on striking against McFedries. I'll post a more detailed write-up tomorrow when I have more free time.

it's funny you wrote this because i was thinking the same thing about the Larson-Wilson fight. I certainly don't have that much faith in Larson, and it isn't like Wilson is a push over. I think the fight doesn't hold a ton of mysteries and it is like you have there, but Wilson may be worth a flyer at +230. i remember his fight against Bruno, and vaguely remember his fight against Fitch. I remember he held his own for a bit in that one. And his resume is pretty impressive, so i do feel better there. And as for Professor X, i just think the guy is fun to watch, but you are right about Drew. It looks like either McFedries by first round KO, or Professor X will win some way.

 

[modogg]

and i forgot to mention it looks like the lines for the Dream 9 event have been posted as well. that will be a good show too. Sheer i think you asked before about Mousasi, and he is -170 right now, very tempting to take him with that. i don't want to spread my self too thin, but Mousasi has fought guys like Hunt before and should win there. I do have a soft spot in my heart for Mark hunt though. Mayhem is +200 against Jacare which is a little more than i would have thought. and unfortunately no line for Canseco-Hoi

 

[sheerterror]

Here's a link for Hughes-Alves Mo. http://www.mmalinker.com/fighter/Thiago-Al...FULL_FIGHT.html Just click "Matt Hughes vs Thiago Alves - UFC 85 FULL FIGHT" it's embedded in a message board.

Rewatching this fight made me want to place something small on Alves against GSP. I think Alves is going to be a beast for a long, long time. I'll have to see how Hughes looks against Serra though to decide just how much of this fight was Alves being a stud vs. Hughes being washed up.

 

[modogg]

Here's a link for Hughes-Alves Mo. http://www.mmalinker.com/fighter/Thiago-Al...FULL_FIGHT.html Just click "Matt Hughes vs Thiago Alves - UFC 85 FULL FIGHT" it's embedded in a message board.

Rewatching this fight made me want to place something small on Alves against GSP. I think Alves is going to be a beast for a long, long time. I'll have to see how Hughes looks against Serra though to decide just how much of this fight was Alves being a stud vs. Hughes being washed up.

thanks. My computer is broken (foster puppy bit the chord and broke it) so i am really only a select few sites on my girl's computer. I would have a very hard time betting against GSP, and it will be a shame if action comes in on Alves and lowers the line for him because i put a bunch on him earlier. Alves is a bit of a stud yes, but I still think GSP is in another league. I have to brush up on Thiago's old fights, i always did like Alves' style, but as long as GSP has his head on straight, i don't see him losing