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I'm passing on this one. One thought, the last guy to get ASilva in any trouble was Travis Lutter, and Lates has better BJJ than Luter. Makes me wonder if Lates as a tremendous underdog isn't worth a few bucks as a longshot.
I thought he looked to be in decent shape.Man, Chuck's letting himself go. His gut-pack looked even more pronounced than usual at the weigh-in, with some added love handles. Feeling safer in my Shogun prediction.
Good luck buddy, here's to another profitable UFC PPV
Back at ya pal!!I'm out for the early fights, will be catching it on TIVO.Good luck buddy, here's to another profitable UFC PPV
wow, lot of action tonight for you there Sheer. I agree with you and Z on most of these, except for your .5 unit plays. Herman-Louiseau and Wiman-Stout, but i wouldn't be surprised to see either win as well. a .5 unit pay makes sense. i was surprised to see Anderson drop to -500, must be too much juice for most people (myself included). if i had the money i would bet it, but the accounts have taken quite a beating the past week. i was glad to see you guys take McDonald too, i like his chances as well. He impressed me with his fight against Maia, and from what i have seen he has a pretty good chin, so he should be able to hang with Quarry and take advantage at different points. It looks like the only real fight of contention is the Chuck-Shogun fight which may be a good sign. i will probably go .5 units on Stout and Louiseau, but i am not overly confident in them either. i was contemplating taking Professor X over Kang or Elliot Marshall for .5 units possibly, but likely not. the only underdog shot i may take is TJ Grant over Ryo Chonan for .5 unit. he is worth a shot and Chonan has not been impressive since he came in the UFC.
I actually grabbed Silva -500 a few days back, I don't believe the line has dropped again but I could be wrong. Wiman and Herman were essentially just action play for me so I don't have a ton of confidence in either of them but I'll take 1-1 as long as the big plays hit.
the Silva line has been strange. i have been checking mostly on sportsbook because that is the only account where i have some money left. it was -800 for most of the week, and went to -600 i think last night. it is -500 right now. problem is the reward i will get on it compared to my overall account balance is not the best. but i think Silva destroys him too. and the whole key is Silva's motivation, i wanted to take him against Cote, and i wanted to take him agaist Thales when it first came up. Silva gets like GSP was for a bit, when GSP fights guys at their strength (outwrestling Serra and Kos, etc.) to test himself, Silva did with that Lutter, and was also not very motivated for that fight. i thought it was going to get worse with him not feeling tested and a guy coing up could catch him by surprise. anyway, seeing Silva at the weigh-in last night, he'll win. he basically made Thales flinch at the picture pose and i like Thales.
I'm fortunate enough to be able to bet on credit which is why I can have some much in play at once - I can definitely see having issues with laying even -500 on Silva based on ROI with your SB bankroll, so that might end up being a good no play for you. I see what you are saying with Silva's potential lack of motivation against a seemingly undeserving opponent like Leites, but everything I've heard from AS's end makes it sound as though he's out to prove a point tonight, is sorry for his poor performance in his last fight, and wants to be considered the greatest MMA fighter in the world.
no i completely agree, and that is why i think i am wanting to take what i can and put it on him. 2 things that really swayed me were the clip of him intimidating Thales at the weigh-in and the fact that he came in at 182, 3 pounds under the limit. He walks around over 200 i think they say, so he obviously wanted to make sure he had the weight in and he is prepared for this fight. i think this is more of a lock than it was a day ago, and that is why i am thinking of really betting like an idiot based on my ROI, just because i am that more confident in it. i would like to see how my other picks go, but i don't want to ruin the pay per view for myself.
Lol I know all about betting like an idiot. The bottom line is if you are this confident in a play, then play it. Win or lose, be on the right side more times than not and you'll make money. I truly believe Silva wins this fight at least 9 times out of 10 and that's why I'm willing to lay all that chalk.
Bump
Good betting here Sheer. I myself ended down for the night, mostly due to careless betting. I had more on Chuck than i should have. One was due to late night betting, which gets you a lot, and the other add-on i did was due to early betting a month or so before the fight happens. My saving grace, and i hope i posted this one earlier, was taking TJ Grant at +185. Funny thing was i went 9-3 with my picks, but my only single plays were Chuck, McDonald, Silva, and TJ Grant. I had 3 nice parlays that would have done real well for me, but I had Chuck and/or McDonald in them to ruin them. And winning the Silva bet was more of a moral victory for me than a financial victory, which was still nice. And as the card was going on I began to think that my bet with Chuck had an emotional element to it. I still thought he could/should have won on (this was pre-fight), but i did think a 1 unit bet would have been sufficient. good job Sheer on bringing that in.
still not on the level of Kalib Starnes. if you are not sure what i am talking about you can probably find it on youtube, Kalib Starnes vs. Nate Quarry. that one was worse. Thales just knew he had no chance against Anderson on his feet. You do have to think he should try something to win the fight having to know he was losing the fight, but oh well. I am pretty sure Dana and Joe Silva will not have him on a main card again for a bit
Thanks mo. I made a little bit on the night thanks to hitting a parlay I forgot to post. Chuck definitely screwed me out of having a very profitable night - cost me a 5 way parlay. Nice call on Grant - always feels good hitting those dogs.I have to admit, I definitely misread Liddell. Unfortunately - he's done. He just doesn't have that same power and chin that he used to. And he looked skinny as #### tonight. I don't know if that was as a result of his new training or what, but it certainly couldn't have helped his power. Congrats to Shogun for getting his career back on track, but I think the result of this fight was much more a statement against Chuck than it was a positive for Rua. He's going to get thrown to the wolves real quick in the LHW division now (Jardine?) and I look forward to fading.
I think Machida will beat Evans, but I don't know that I will have action on the fight. Not much value in that line and I think I'd rather just watch it and enjoy - but I'm sure my degenerate self will have action when it comes down to it...maybe a half unit though. Don't have too many opinions of these fights off the top of my head just yet, but I Houston Alexander +200 looks pretty good. I need to do some research on Gusmao (never seen him fight) but Alexander has some ridiculous, well documented knockout power. I'm a Serra fan but I don't think he's going to match up well with Hughes, however that line sucks so I likely won't be betting it. I'm going to look into Okami over Miller also, but we'll see. What two lines do you like most?
I'm really thinking Okami and Sherk are real good, solid bets. i am thinking the lines may even look better for them as the card nears too, but i am fairly confident both will win. I need to look into Dan Miller a bit more, but i like both of these a lot. Also tempted with a 3/4 unit on Serra. it is tough since we haven't seen both in a long time, and i don't know how they both prepared. they have had a ton of time to gameplan. I also think Alexander may be worth a .5 unit play. if i remember correctly Gusmao came form the IFL, and is a pretty good fighter. the whole key though is what has Alexander been doing, yeah he had knockout power, but he got knocked out bad by Irvin, and his ground game is non-existent. i take back the .5 unit play, only way he can win is if Gusmao wants to stand and swing him, which i doubt he does since he is just starting in the UFC (he had one fight already, but i forget who it was against). and i also think McFedries has good value. the only line i see moving in the opposite direction of these significantly is the Alexander line. everything else should be pretty much the same throughout.
yeah congrats to those who picked Shogun, but i agree i will likely fade him for his next fight. Jardine is a good call as a match-up (that poor guy, he has to fight every top caliber guy)and as for Silva to fight next, my thoughts are 4 possibilities. I agree with you about Maia, and since Silva isn't much of a PPV draw at this point, i think they hold off a bit here. Poor Okami is waiting forever too, but i think 3 good possibilities for net fight would be Bisping (if he gets past Hendo, which is quite a task), Wanderlei, and GSP. i really think they will want to keep Silva as a main event guy and they will think of a risk against Okami and Maia, and it is too early for a re-match against Hendo if he beats Bisping. It is a little early for a fight againt Wandy since he hasn't fought much at MW, but if he beats Rich Franklin it would give him the credibility for it, and he certainly would make it exciting. GSP vs. Silva is the fight, but this would be for the end of the year card they load up, or the card before the Super Bowl they load up. The issue is how many fights Silva has on his contract and how much longer does he want to fight? if only 3 or so left, put him against GSP sooner rather than later, Silva needs to be challenged.
So no love at all for Nate getting a rematch with Anderson? I think he's improved tremendously since they last fought almost 2 years ago. Marquardt only has 2 losses in his UFC career - 1 to AS and the other to Leites because he was deducted 2 points.
yup that was one of the few fights i can think of that booing may be justified for. I mean Kalib literaly ran away from him during the fight and would not engage him. Thales had a faulty gameplan and did not show the urgency he needed to try and win, Kalib, I still don't know what he was doing. and while we're at it, 2 other examples of guy's just looking like they don't want to be in the ocatagon/ring fighting:
Thrilled to see Shogun fighting well (and smart). Excellent win for him, although it pains me to admit that it's time for Chuck to hang them up.
I actually got a lot of love for my boy Nate. I am trying to think who Nate just fought last, but i know he has been looking good. i would think Nate would need to beat Rich Franklin or Hendo to get the next shot though. you wouldn't want to ruin Maia in case Marquardt would beat him, but i think getting a re-match is a good idea, and i put it on the lines similar to GSP-Hughes 1 and 2. Not saying Nate would definately win, but Nate was i think intimidated and not ready at that point for Silva, maybe he is now. and on a side note, i actually came out on the plus side tonight. i had 2 parlays that did work that were affiliated with the WEC event, that were nice to win
yeah i think Silva has 3 or 4 fights left on his contract. they can't dill dally with him for too long, i think a fight against Wandy or somebody who would push the pace and engage Anderson is needed. that is why i think they don't give Maia a title shot just yet.
and i did want to comment about this. his belly did looke more pronounced, but his chest also looked pretty skinny. And what was with the 2 black eyes he had coming into the fight? Maybe his sparring sessions got tough the other day, who knows. Wonder wht he does from here though. this is his income, and i think he enjoys doing it, but i can't see him fighting cans just to keep a job and win. i know they were pusher Randy to do things like ring side announcing and everything. I'm pretty sure that wouldn't be the best spot for Chuck since he isn't the best speaker around, but you hate to see him getting messed around with. He just looked off of his game too, it was a shameMan, Chuck's letting himself go. His gut-pack looked even more pronounced than usual at the weigh-in, with some added love handles. Feeling safer in my Shogun prediction.
i don't know what other choice there is for him. Dana will keep him around and i think it set a good precedent for MMA as a whole to try and look out for the health of their fighters. Boxing took a hit when you see Ali these days, and even though his condition could have nothing to do with his boxing career the public percieves it that way and it hurts boxing. Now i'll have to get that UFC video game and get the belt with Chuck through that
it's not as bad as people say, but yeah if you were going to miss buying one it may have been this one. the UFC has a problem with Silva, and needs to make sure they match him up right for his next one before people lose more interest. it is really a shame, but i know i certainly would not try and trade with Silva, and it seems like most fighter's game plans are the same. the next PPV will be a good one though. may not have the excitement factor with some of the guys they have (Sherk, Hughes) but they will be good fights.
i have 3/4's of a unit that says he does as well. he has had about a year or so to prepare for this fight, i'm sure he'll be ready. only question i have is if either one of them are putting in more time and effort to establish their gyms then prepare for this fight. i am almost as excited for the pre-hype trash talk between these 2 then the fight itself. i thought it would get stale being so long, but i heard a recent interview from both and it is just as good
Shoulda listened to you and my gut.
Not very.I really like Machida and think he will beat Evans, but a lot of people can't stand his style. I don't know what his problem is, it's like the only thing he cares about is winning instead of entertaining the fans
Hughes is a fair bit beyond his prime and Serra has never been that good. Hughes will win.Alexander was a big striker against sorry guys, did manage a win against Keith Jardine, but has looked bad and is riding a 3 fight losing streak (including tying for the fastest knockout in UFC history).I won't be getting this card, but I really do like Machida.
I'm looking forward to it. Machida is one of my favorite fighters in the UFC, and I actually find his fights very interesting/entertaining to watch. To me, he allows you to really understand the tactical and strategic aspects of MMA while also keeping the fight exciting (to me, at least). I'm curious to see 1) if Rashad's wrestling is strong enough to take Machida down 2) if Rashad does take Machida down, can he avoid getting submitted 3) what the stand-up is going to look like since bother fighters are counterstrikers. I can only hope this doesn't result in a lot of dancing with minimal action.Houston Alexander's fights are usually pretty entertaining, Sherk-Edgar has some potential and I look forward to seeing Okami who could be next in line for a MW title fight with Anderson Silva.
well there are some nice rumors out today. if they are true, Silva will fight Forres Griffin next at UFC 101 in Philly
! i am guessing it sells out in a few minutes. and if it is true, it doesn't give Anderson much time and Forrest will engage him
Sucks that it won't be a title fight thoughWould still look forward to itwell there are some nice rumors out today. if they are true, Silva will fight Forres Griffin next at UFC 101 in Philly
yeah it will be a good card. My guess is that the first 2 rounds of the Ande4rson Rashad fight will be a little slower, trying to guess eachother's timing and stuff. But this is how it should be and i am perfectly fine with out a rock 'em sock 'em first round or 2, especially for the championship fights. it will be a great technical fight, and both guys have solid one punch knockout power, so i would expect them to not jump out all crazy. it will certainly be a fun fight to watch, and if i put anything on it i will probably just do some parylays.
Awesome, thanks!
Awesome, thanks!
Tanner is killing it tonight.
