UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (3 Viewers)

[Charlie Harper]

I meant to respond to this sooner. I don't think it's valid to point out Shogun's performances against Nogueira, Jackson and Overeem, being that all of those fights were 4 years ago (Overeem the 2nd time was 2 years ago.) Since, Rua has had surgery and looked horrendous in his return against his tomato can "big enough name, even though washed up should be an easy victory to get you back in the win column" opponent. I'm not sure I'd gamble on Rua bouncing back enough from this to beat a hungry, motivated Liddell - especially not at +150 or whatever it is right now. It's easy to pin Chuck as washed up right now because he dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, but look at his level of competition - all 3 losses were to top 10 LHWs, with Evans and Rampage arguably being the 1 and 2. I think this fight is being set up 100% as a come back fight to get Liddell back into the winning column so he can continue being a co-headliner for another few fights. Dana will try to squeeze every dollar out of him that he can.

I disagree. Even though the fights were a while ago, they show that Shogun has the talent to beat top level guys. The only question now is if he can get his body into good enough shape IMO. With regards to Chuck, it isn't so much that his game has fallen off (it has though) as it is the sport passing him by. He is a one trick pony that people have figured out.I completely agree that Dana want to milk as much out of his as possible. Also, by fight time, we'll be looking at +200.

 

[sheerterror]

I meant to respond to this sooner. I don't think it's valid to point out Shogun's performances against Nogueira, Jackson and Overeem, being that all of those fights were 4 years ago (Overeem the 2nd time was 2 years ago.) Since, Rua has had surgery and looked horrendous in his return against his tomato can "big enough name, even though washed up should be an easy victory to get you back in the win column" opponent. I'm not sure I'd gamble on Rua bouncing back enough from this to beat a hungry, motivated Liddell - especially not at +150 or whatever it is right now. It's easy to pin Chuck as washed up right now because he dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, but look at his level of competition - all 3 losses were to top 10 LHWs, with Evans and Rampage arguably being the 1 and 2. I think this fight is being set up 100% as a come back fight to get Liddell back into the winning column so he can continue being a co-headliner for another few fights. Dana will try to squeeze every dollar out of him that he can.

I disagree. Even though the fights were a while ago, they show that Shogun has the talent to beat top level guys. The only question now is if he can get his body into good enough shape IMO. With regards to Chuck, it isn't so much that his game has fallen off (it has though) as it is the sport passing him by. He is a one trick pony that people have figured out.I completely agree that Dana want to milk as much out of his as possible. Also, by fight time, we'll be looking at +200.

I'm not sure losing to Rampage, Evans and a tough decision to Jardine would exactly qualify as saying his game has fallen off - although I do agree that his failure to adapt and round out his skillset will be the reason he never competes for a LHW title again...but it's not like the guy is Ken Shamrock here. You really can't deny the success of his strong striking and great takendown defense approach regardless of how tired the trick may seem. An elite level fighter in this division can and has and will continue to take advantage of this - but I don't think Rua will, certainly not based off of how bad he looked against Coleman. We'll see though, should be a good one.

 

[modogg]

I meant to respond to this sooner. I don't think it's valid to point out Shogun's performances against Nogueira, Jackson and Overeem, being that all of those fights were 4 years ago (Overeem the 2nd time was 2 years ago.) Since, Rua has had surgery and looked horrendous in his return against his tomato can "big enough name, even though washed up should be an easy victory to get you back in the win column" opponent. I'm not sure I'd gamble on Rua bouncing back enough from this to beat a hungry, motivated Liddell - especially not at +150 or whatever it is right now. It's easy to pin Chuck as washed up right now because he dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, but look at his level of competition - all 3 losses were to top 10 LHWs, with Evans and Rampage arguably being the 1 and 2. I think this fight is being set up 100% as a come back fight to get Liddell back into the winning column so he can continue being a co-headliner for another few fights. Dana will try to squeeze every dollar out of him that he can.

I disagree. Even though the fights were a while ago, they show that Shogun has the talent to beat top level guys. The only question now is if he can get his body into good enough shape IMO. With regards to Chuck, it isn't so much that his game has fallen off (it has though) as it is the sport passing him by. He is a one trick pony that people have figured out.I completely agree that Dana want to milk as much out of his as possible. Also, by fight time, we'll be looking at +200.

I'm not sure losing to Rampage, Evans and a tough decision to Jardine would exactly qualify as saying his game has fallen off - although I do agree that his failure to adapt and round out his skillset will be the reason he never competes for a LHW title again...but it's not like the guy is Ken Shamrock here. You really can't deny the success of his strong striking and great takendown defense approach regardless of how tired the trick may seem. An elite level fighter in this division can and has and will continue to take advantage of this - but I don't think Rua will, certainly not based off of how bad he looked against Coleman. We'll see though, should be a good one.

Man, i could talk MMA for days. I have to look at Shogun's old fights again, but there are so many factors with taking fighters from Japan and not in the UFC. and with Shogun beating top level guys, all of his wins (except one) were first round wins. not saying he can't beat these guys if they fight again, but it is like looking at Shane Carwin. the difference between the 2 is that Shogun has looked terrible in his last 2 fights. as for Chuck, i am pretty sure he said after his loss to Rashad he was going to expand his fight and work with some different gyms. He is still with Hackelman, but is looking to up his training partners and work on some other skills. i wouldn't be surprised if Chuck gets a few takedowns in the fight coming up, he was a top college wrestler, so he isn't a one trick pony necessarily, he has been one by choice. one minor concern is how Chuck got knocked out to Rampage and Rashad. I hope his chin is still strong and they were caused much more by technique. Both shots were very clean coming in so i have faith Chuck should be able to withstand Shogun's stand-up.

 

[sheerterror]

I meant to respond to this sooner. I don't think it's valid to point out Shogun's performances against Nogueira, Jackson and Overeem, being that all of those fights were 4 years ago (Overeem the 2nd time was 2 years ago.) Since, Rua has had surgery and looked horrendous in his return against his tomato can "big enough name, even though washed up should be an easy victory to get you back in the win column" opponent. I'm not sure I'd gamble on Rua bouncing back enough from this to beat a hungry, motivated Liddell - especially not at +150 or whatever it is right now. It's easy to pin Chuck as washed up right now because he dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, but look at his level of competition - all 3 losses were to top 10 LHWs, with Evans and Rampage arguably being the 1 and 2. I think this fight is being set up 100% as a come back fight to get Liddell back into the winning column so he can continue being a co-headliner for another few fights. Dana will try to squeeze every dollar out of him that he can.

I disagree. Even though the fights were a while ago, they show that Shogun has the talent to beat top level guys. The only question now is if he can get his body into good enough shape IMO. With regards to Chuck, it isn't so much that his game has fallen off (it has though) as it is the sport passing him by. He is a one trick pony that people have figured out.I completely agree that Dana want to milk as much out of his as possible. Also, by fight time, we'll be looking at +200.

I'm not sure losing to Rampage, Evans and a tough decision to Jardine would exactly qualify as saying his game has fallen off - although I do agree that his failure to adapt and round out his skillset will be the reason he never competes for a LHW title again...but it's not like the guy is Ken Shamrock here. You really can't deny the success of his strong striking and great takendown defense approach regardless of how tired the trick may seem. An elite level fighter in this division can and has and will continue to take advantage of this - but I don't think Rua will, certainly not based off of how bad he looked against Coleman. We'll see though, should be a good one.

Man, i could talk MMA for days. I have to look at Shogun's old fights again, but there are so many factors with taking fighters from Japan and not in the UFC. and with Shogun beating top level guys, all of his wins (except one) were first round wins. not saying he can't beat these guys if they fight again, but it is like looking at Shane Carwin. the difference between the 2 is that Shogun has looked terrible in his last 2 fights. as for Chuck, i am pretty sure he said after his loss to Rashad he was going to expand his fight and work with some different gyms. He is still with Hackelman, but is looking to up his training partners and work on some other skills. i wouldn't be surprised if Chuck gets a few takedowns in the fight coming up, he was a top college wrestler, so he isn't a one trick pony necessarily, he has been one by choice. one minor concern is how Chuck got knocked out to Rampage and Rashad. I hope his chin is still strong and they were caused much more by technique. Both shots were very clean coming in so i have faith Chuck should be able to withstand Shogun's stand-up.

Maybe I'm being closed minded and too results oriented based on his last fight - but if Rua couldn't knock Coleman out until the end of the fight despite the fact that he was ripe to be dropped, there's little chance he's going to be able to KO Chuck.

 

[Charlie Harper]

I meant to respond to this sooner. I don't think it's valid to point out Shogun's performances against Nogueira, Jackson and Overeem, being that all of those fights were 4 years ago (Overeem the 2nd time was 2 years ago.) Since, Rua has had surgery and looked horrendous in his return against his tomato can "big enough name, even though washed up should be an easy victory to get you back in the win column" opponent. I'm not sure I'd gamble on Rua bouncing back enough from this to beat a hungry, motivated Liddell - especially not at +150 or whatever it is right now. It's easy to pin Chuck as washed up right now because he dropped 3 of his last 4 fights, but look at his level of competition - all 3 losses were to top 10 LHWs, with Evans and Rampage arguably being the 1 and 2. I think this fight is being set up 100% as a come back fight to get Liddell back into the winning column so he can continue being a co-headliner for another few fights. Dana will try to squeeze every dollar out of him that he can.

I disagree. Even though the fights were a while ago, they show that Shogun has the talent to beat top level guys. The only question now is if he can get his body into good enough shape IMO. With regards to Chuck, it isn't so much that his game has fallen off (it has though) as it is the sport passing him by. He is a one trick pony that people have figured out.I completely agree that Dana want to milk as much out of his as possible. Also, by fight time, we'll be looking at +200.

I'm not sure losing to Rampage, Evans and a tough decision to Jardine would exactly qualify as saying his game has fallen off - although I do agree that his failure to adapt and round out his skillset will be the reason he never competes for a LHW title again...but it's not like the guy is Ken Shamrock here. You really can't deny the success of his strong striking and great takendown defense approach regardless of how tired the trick may seem. An elite level fighter in this division can and has and will continue to take advantage of this - but I don't think Rua will, certainly not based off of how bad he looked against Coleman. We'll see though, should be a good one.

It will definitely be a good fight. I'm not trying to say that Rua will destroy Chuck. I'd say he wins 5/10 or 6/10 which makes me take him at +150 or better. Vs Coleman, Rua was giving up a ton of weight which I think led to his gassing so so bad. Also remember, Chuck is closing in on 40 years old which is a big deal. He is a guy that relies on quick powerful hands. What is the first thing to go when you get old? Speed. A guy like Couture overcomes this because he has a complete game. He can stand and trade or he can take the fight to the ground. If Chuck is losing on his feet, he doesn't have other choices. As modogg said, Chuck was a good college wrestler.... 20 years ago. We haven't seen him use his wrestling other than defending take downs.

 

[Abrantes]

I've been a Shogun fanboy for ages, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

First of all, the second Coleman/Shogun fight was an abortion. Absolutely hideous gassing from both fighters. Still, you have to take into account just how long both had been on the shelf since their last fights. Ring rust and injuries had to play a part in how terrible they looked (not that Coleman ever had great cardio). Shogun hadn't fought in a year and a half, and Coleman had over two years off. That does contribute to their lack of a fighting rhythm, so I'm willing to give Shogun the benefit of the doubt for one more fight. However, the bigger issue here is that Rua changed camps and trains with his friends at UDL these days, which plenty of people argue isn't exactly a world-class team. They're not amateurs, but his opponents in the UFC are training with some of the best teams in the world, so it's a concern.

As for Chuck, I still think he's got plenty in the tank, and will come in with something to prove, given that this was a dream fight for many back in the day, and fans argued that Shogun was the #1 light heavyweight at the time, instead of Chuck. Regardless of the outcome, it should be an incredible fight. I think Shogun has a shot if he tries to keep some distance and use his kicks, but I'm getting worried after seeing videos of his wrestling training, with his wrestling coach saying that Shogun's gonna take Chuck down. Shogun actually has great takedowns, but it seems like a horribly misguided gameplan. Ask Babalu how that worked out for him.

 

[modogg]

I've been a Shogun fanboy for ages, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.First of all, the second Coleman/Shogun fight was an abortion. Absolutely hideous gassing from both fighters. Still, you have to take into account just how long both had been on the shelf since their last fights. Ring rust and injuries had to play a part in how terrible they looked (not that Coleman ever had great cardio). Shogun hadn't fought in a year and a half, and Coleman had over two years off. That does contribute to their lack of a fighting rhythm, so I'm willing to give Shogun the benefit of the doubt for one more fight. However, the bigger use is that Rua changed camps and trains with his friends at UDL these days, which plenty of people argue isn't exactly a world-class team. They're not amateurs, but his opponents in the UFC are training with some of the best teams in the world, so it's a concern.As for Chuck, I still think he's got plenty in the tank, and will come in with something to prove, given that this was a dream fight for many back in the day, and fans argued that Shogun was the #1 light heavyweight at the time, instead of Chuck. Regardless of the outcome, it should be an incredible fight. I think Shogun has a shot if he tries to keep some distance and use his kicks, but I'm getting worried after seeing videos of his wrestling training, with his wrestling coach saying that Shogun's gonna take Chuck down. Shogun actually has great takedowns, but it seems like a horribly misguided gameplan. Ask Babalu how that worked out for him.

when did Shogun fight Forrest? i didn't think he was laid up for a year and a half, but if he was i agree it had an effect. and i agree completely with Shogun's training, same story with BJ. when you train with your friends or your own camp you run, i just think you don't get as much from it. and the Babalu call, ugh. that friggin' UFC Countdown (or maybe it was the All Access show) convinced me Babalu would take him. I liked Chuck the whole time, until that stupid show convinced me otherwise, i end up putting $150 on Babalu and the rest is history. as for Shogun taking down Chuck, if i remember correctly he couldn't take Forrest down, and if he can't take Forrest down i am betting he won't take Chuck down

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I've been a Shogun fanboy for ages, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.First of all, the second Coleman/Shogun fight was an abortion. Absolutely hideous gassing from both fighters. Still, you have to take into account just how long both had been on the shelf since their last fights. Ring rust and injuries had to play a part in how terrible they looked (not that Coleman ever had great cardio). Shogun hadn't fought in a year and a half, and Coleman had over two years off. That does contribute to their lack of a fighting rhythm, so I'm willing to give Shogun the benefit of the doubt for one more fight. However, the bigger use is that Rua changed camps and trains with his friends at UDL these days, which plenty of people argue isn't exactly a world-class team. They're not amateurs, but his opponents in the UFC are training with some of the best teams in the world, so it's a concern.As for Chuck, I still think he's got plenty in the tank, and will come in with something to prove, given that this was a dream fight for many back in the day, and fans argued that Shogun was the #1 light heavyweight at the time, instead of Chuck. Regardless of the outcome, it should be an incredible fight. I think Shogun has a shot if he tries to keep some distance and use his kicks, but I'm getting worried after seeing videos of his wrestling training, with his wrestling coach saying that Shogun's gonna take Chuck down. Shogun actually has great takedowns, but it seems like a horribly misguided gameplan. Ask Babalu how that worked out for him.

when did Shogun fight Forrest? i didn't think he was laid up for a year and a half, but if he was i agree it had an effect. and i agree completely with Shogun's training, same story with BJ. when you train with your friends or your own camp you run, i just think you don't get as much from it. and the Babalu call, ugh. that friggin' UFC Countdown (or maybe it was the All Access show) convinced me Babalu would take him. I liked Chuck the whole time, until that stupid show convinced me otherwise, i end up putting $150 on Babalu and the rest is history. as for Shogun taking down Chuck, if i remember correctly he couldn't take Forrest down, and if he can't take Forrest down i am betting he won't take Chuck down

Rua/Griffin was Sept 07, so it was just about a year and a halfI also think a big part of Rua's UFC struggles come from the difference in the rules from Pride to UFC, specifically the prohibitions against kicks and knees to the head of downed opponents, which Rua excelled at in PrideNo real size or reach advantage between the two, and Liddell is 12 years older than RuaShould be a good fight, I am excited for it

 

[modogg]

I've been a Shogun fanboy for ages, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

First of all, the second Coleman/Shogun fight was an abortion. Absolutely hideous gassing from both fighters. Still, you have to take into account just how long both had been on the shelf since their last fights. Ring rust and injuries had to play a part in how terrible they looked (not that Coleman ever had great cardio). Shogun hadn't fought in a year and a half, and Coleman had over two years off. That does contribute to their lack of a fighting rhythm, so I'm willing to give Shogun the benefit of the doubt for one more fight. However, the bigger issue here is that Rua changed camps and trains with his friends at UDL these days, which plenty of people argue isn't exactly a world-class team. They're not amateurs, but his opponents in the UFC are training with some of the best teams in the world, so it's a concern.

As for Chuck, I still think he's got plenty in the tank, and will come in with something to prove, given that this was a dream fight for many back in the day, and fans argued that Shogun was the #1 light heavyweight at the time, instead of Chuck. Regardless of the outcome, it should be an incredible fight. I think Shogun has a shot if he tries to keep some distance and use his kicks, but I'm getting worried after seeing videos of his wrestling training, with his wrestling coach saying that Shogun's gonna take Chuck down. Shogun actually has great takedowns, but it seems like a horribly misguided gameplan. Ask Babalu how that worked out for him.

So Abrantes (or anybody else more familiar with Shogun and his training), you know more about this than I do. I was reading on Sherdog that Shogun has amped his training incredibly and is preparing like he hasn't prepared before. Obviously selling the fight, but i am not familiar with UDL, so for those of us with money on Chuck, does this effect anything: http://sherdog.com/news/articles/maia-othe...ng-shogun-16687

if you don't feel like reading or clicking on it, it basically says he is training with Demaina Maia and Sergio Cunha. they also reference something regarding Rua looking to outwrestle Chuck which i know you reference above.

thanks

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Not sure how training with Maia will help. I don't see Shogun taking Chuck down and holding him there often, nor do I expect Chuck to try to take it to the floor.

This fight really comes down to Shogun's cardio. Shogun really excels in transition and scrambles, so when he is out of shape, his abilities will drop off much more than other fighters.

I see Shogun's aggressiveness playing into Chuck's counterpunching. Rampage was able to pressure Chuck, but that is because Rampage's boxing is far ahead of the rest of the division.

 

[modogg]

whew, got lucky last night. I was thinking taking a flyer on Jerome Le Banner and Alistair Overeem, and bet 2 units on Melvin Manhoef in last night's K-1 Grand Prix. The acounts are kind of low so opted against it, and man oh man was that a good call. all 3 guys lost.

 

[thatguy]

I'm pumped to see Junie Browning fight Cole Miller on April 1st. The guy has mad skills and I think he'll kick Cole's ###.

 

[modogg]

I'm pumped to see Junie Browning fight Cole Miller on April 1st. The guy has mad skills and I think he'll kick Cole's ###.

yeah I'm on the fence with this one. I thought Cole was going to destroy him, and it would be a somewhat cakewalk for him, but now i am not so sure. Junie has been working at Xtreme Couture for literally 6-7 months straight, and from what i hear some guys there have really taken him under their wing. they are praising the crap out of him talking about how good he has become and how he is doing so well. I think there is too much uncertainty to bet either side, i still lean Cole but Junie is an anomaly at this point and i just don't know what to expect from Junie working with a good, established camp

 

[Abrantes]

I've been a Shogun fanboy for ages, so take whatever I say with a grain of salt.

First of all, the second Coleman/Shogun fight was an abortion. Absolutely hideous gassing from both fighters. Still, you have to take into account just how long both had been on the shelf since their last fights. Ring rust and injuries had to play a part in how terrible they looked (not that Coleman ever had great cardio). Shogun hadn't fought in a year and a half, and Coleman had over two years off. That does contribute to their lack of a fighting rhythm, so I'm willing to give Shogun the benefit of the doubt for one more fight. However, the bigger issue here is that Rua changed camps and trains with his friends at UDL these days, which plenty of people argue isn't exactly a world-class team. They're not amateurs, but his opponents in the UFC are training with some of the best teams in the world, so it's a concern.

As for Chuck, I still think he's got plenty in the tank, and will come in with something to prove, given that this was a dream fight for many back in the day, and fans argued that Shogun was the #1 light heavyweight at the time, instead of Chuck. Regardless of the outcome, it should be an incredible fight. I think Shogun has a shot if he tries to keep some distance and use his kicks, but I'm getting worried after seeing videos of his wrestling training, with his wrestling coach saying that Shogun's gonna take Chuck down. Shogun actually has great takedowns, but it seems like a horribly misguided gameplan. Ask Babalu how that worked out for him.

So Abrantes (or anybody else more familiar with Shogun and his training), you know more about this than I do. I was reading on Sherdog that Shogun has amped his training incredibly and is preparing like he hasn't prepared before. Obviously selling the fight, but i am not familiar with UDL, so for those of us with money on Chuck, does this effect anything: http://sherdog.com/news/articles/maia-othe...ng-shogun-16687

if you don't feel like reading or clicking on it, it basically says he is training with Demaina Maia and Sergio Cunha. they also reference something regarding Rua looking to outwrestle Chuck which i know you reference above.

thanks

Well, UDL actually has damn good trainers, by all accounts. There's just a public perception problem due to people always wanting to see the Shogun that destroyed Rampage and Arona on the way to winning the 2005 Pride GP. The unstoppable cardio machine that beat all comers and was #1 on many rankings for a long time. Since then, he left his Chute Boxe training home to build up UDL with a few of his friends, including lightweight André "Dida" Amade. Therefore, UDL is a bit of a pariah, victim of the Brazilian fans' disappointment.Everything I've heard about Shogun's training has been positive, beginning right after he beat Coleman. The biggest Brazilian MMA forum (Portal do Vale Tudo) was absolutely livid at Shogun's poor performance, and went off on the whole ordeal. A few days later, his manager showed up on the forum to publically state that Shogun has a good sense of self-appraisal, and was also disappointed in his showing. He said that the two of them had read every post regarding his fight, even when it got a little tough to bear, and that Shogun was more determined than ever to give the fans what they want to see.

Soon after the Coleman fight, Wanderlei also extended an invitation for Shogun to train with his team, and I assume that's where Demian came in, since he's one of Wand's regular training partners. I'm very optimistic, although I still think trying to take Chuck down isn't the smartest strategy. We'll see.

 

[Abrantes]

I'm pumped to see Junie Browning fight Cole Miller on April 1st. The guy has mad skills and I think he'll kick Cole's ###.

yeah I'm on the fence with this one. I thought Cole was going to destroy him, and it would be a somewhat cakewalk for him, but now i am not so sure. Junie has been working at Xtreme Couture for literally 6-7 months straight, and from what i hear some guys there have really taken him under their wing. they are praising the crap out of him talking about how good he has become and how he is doing so well. I think there is too much uncertainty to bet either side, i still lean Cole but Junie is an anomaly at this point and i just don't know what to expect from Junie working with a good, established camp

Dunno, man. Judging by both fighters' last couple of performances, Cole is definitely the more technical striker, knows how to use his reach advantage and definitely has better jiu-jitsu. Junie likely has the edge in power and aggression, but I don't know if he'll have improved enough since joining Couture's team to make up for the difference in technique. Plus, Junie's performances have been pretty erratic, so I really don't know what to expect. Leaning towards Cole whuppin' Junie, though.

 

[modogg]

Well, UDL actually has damn good trainers, by all accounts. There's just a public perception problem due to people always wanting to see the Shogun that destroyed Rampage and Arona on the way to winning the 2005 Pride GP. The unstoppable cardio machine that beat all comers and was #1 on many rankings for a long time. Since then, he left his Chute Boxe training home to build up UDL with a few of his friends, including lightweight André "Dida" Amade. Therefore, UDL is a bit of a pariah, victim of the Brazilian fans' disappointment.Everything I've heard about Shogun's training has been positive, beginning right after he beat Coleman. The biggest Brazilian MMA forum (Portal do Vale Tudo) was absolutely livid at Shogun's poor performance, and went off on the whole ordeal. A few days later, his manager showed up on the forum to publically state that Shogun has a good sense of self-appraisal, and was also disappointed in his showing. He said that the two of them had read every post regarding his fight, even when it got a little tough to bear, and that Shogun was more determined than ever to give the fans what they want to see.Soon after the Coleman fight, Wanderlei also extended an invitation for Shogun to train with his team, and I assume that's where Demian came in, since he's one of Wand's regular training partners. I'm very optimistic, although I still think trying to take Chuck down isn't the smartest strategy. We'll see.

Wow man, thanks. That is pretty thorough there and really good info. i think if i want to put anymore on Chuck i will try and do it through parlay bets. I know there was a huge deal about the need for Chuck to change his training and camps after his couple of losses lately, I'm just not sure if it happened or not. I do expect an improved Shogun though, i don't see how he can't be. I know i have lost some money on parlays in the past, but i think i did them a little haphazard, or i looked for big paydays and took too many underdogs. i want to be a little more conservative and see if i can get some solid one's. I know they say on bodog that they have 3 or 4 events listed and you can parlay across them.

 

[sheerterror]

I hit Kampmann -105 and Miller -115 on Sportsbook for the upcoming Fight Night.

Just wanted to bump this for the Fight Night tonight.Line moved a bit on both of these guys - but I think they pose the most value on the card. Bader should win, but at -400 (or whatever he is) I'll stay away...same with Griffen. I would have liked to add them into a parlays but not sure if I will be parlaying anything for certain on this card. Also leaning towards Tibau who has moved to -180 on my book, but apparently he came in overweight (took the fight on 3 weeks notice) and that is the only thing keeping me off making a play on him at the moment.

 

[zander_s]

I hit Kampmann -105 and Miller -115 on Sportsbook for the upcoming Fight Night.

Yep, i'm already on both of those.I like bader and griffen as well but the juice is too sour for me!

Still don't like the juice on Bader and Griffen.It looks like these will be my only plays for Fight Night. Good Luck All!

 

[sheerterror]

Just doubled my plays on Miller and Kampmann. Even though my lines are stale - I still think there is plenty of value. Still trying to confirm a play on Tibau here but -180 seems a little steep.

 

[zander_s]

Just doubled my plays on Miller and Kampmann. Even though my lines are stale - I still think there is plenty of value. Still trying to confirm a play on Tibau here but -180 seems a little steep.

SB dropped Tibau to -170.I'm looking at Credeur now @ -135Any opinion on him for tonight?

 

[Gadabout]

Let's go, Junie!

 

[modogg]

I hit Kampmann -105 and Miller -115 on Sportsbook for the upcoming Fight Night.

Yep, i'm already on both of those.I like bader and griffen as well but the juice is too sour for me!

Still don't like the juice on Bader and Griffen.It looks like these will be my only plays for Fight Night. Good Luck All!

I don't like Bader pick at all. I haven't see enough to really impress me so far, and i thought he was the 3rd best fighter on TUF in his division. I am sure the match-up is to help promote him, but certainly not a safe pick. I do like Griffin to win, and if you want solid favorite i would take Brock Larson. One underdog getting a push is Nissen Osterneck. i can't bet against Jorge Rivera at this point though, but he may be one worth looking into. only bet i have so far is Kampmann for .75 unit. i kind of think this fight will be a toss-up. I think people still underrate Condit because for awhile they were thinking of him as a top 10 in the division. but i like Kampmann and this is more for the sake of action than anything.Edit: geez, i didn't realize they have Brock Larson at -525. He isn't that good of a bet to take him with that.

 

[modogg]

Just doubled my plays on Miller and Kampmann. Even though my lines are stale - I still think there is plenty of value. Still trying to confirm a play on Tibau here but -180 seems a little steep.

SB dropped Tibau to -170.I'm looking at Credeur now @ -135Any opinion on him for tonight?

I like Tibau but i have underestimated Stephens before, so i am not confident enough to put money on him with those odds. And i don't think Crodeur is a good bet either. i think Catone should be favored in this fight, but again with these TUF fighters it is tough gambling with them or againt them with their 1st or 2nd fight like these. I just have no idea how much Creuder improved from the show. like with Bader, i am not very impressed by what i have seen so far from Credeur and i am not sure what level he is at. Catone is a good wrestler, and may physically control Credeur

 

[Deadpool]

gb junie browning getting killed in this one...

 

[Charlie Harper]

gb junie browning getting killed in this one...

 

[modogg]

Added a parlay which should turn out alright: Griffin, Aaron Simpson, Rob Kimmons, Brock Larson, and Tibau: $25 to win $88, and all have solid chances of winning

and Zander i saw you wrote earlier about Tibau earlier. I just read something about there is speculation that Stephens may be hurt. Both Tibau and Stephens came in over weight, but Stephens missed by 3-4 pounds. the thought is to miss it that much he probably has an injury that didn't let him do the cardio needed to lose the weight. pretty sound theory to me. i liked Tibau before, and if this is the case it could be a good bet

 

[zander_s]

Added a parlay which should turn out alright: Griffin, Aaron Simpson, Rob Kimmons, Brock Larson, and Tibau: $25 to win $88, and all have solid chances of winningand Zander i saw you wrote earlier about Tibau earlier. I just read something about there is speculation that Stephens may be hurt. Both Tibau and Stephens came in over weight, but Stephens missed by 3-4 pounds. the thought is to miss it that much he probably has an injury that didn't let him do the cardio needed to lose the weight. pretty sound theory to me. i liked Tibau before, and if this is the case it could be a good bet

Thanks for the heads up.I think i'm just gonna stick with what i have. I really want to enjoy the fights with a couple cocktails and not stress out about it too much. These fights that are 'unsure' to me just cause stress.I guess the motto for the rest of these matchups is......I never lost a wager i didn't place!

 

[sheerterror]

Just doubled my plays on Miller and Kampmann. Even though my lines are stale - I still think there is plenty of value. Still trying to confirm a play on Tibau here but -180 seems a little steep.

SB dropped Tibau to -170.I'm looking at Credeur now @ -135Any opinion on him for tonight?

Sorry I missed this earlier..had no opinion on the fight but I hope you hit Credeur - he won in the 2nd round.Tibau line off the board now I guess they took all the undercards off early. Oh well..

 

[thatguy]

I really think Junie is going to surprise tonight.

 

[BuddyKnuckles]

bye bye junie...turns out you're all mouth, no skill

 

[sheerterror]

Man I hope they can all be that easy.

 

[zander_s]

I really think Junie is going to surprise tonight.

Surprise surprise!

 

[Abrantes]

Man, Condit/Kampmann should be sick. Two stone cold killers. C'mon Carlos!

 

[thatguy]

I really think Junie is going to surprise tonight.

Surprise surprise!

I was so ####### wrong on this one.

 

[sheerterror]

Condit/Kampmann was an awesome fight. I've got a ton of respect for Condit - he's got a real bright future.

 

[Abrantes]

Round one of Condit/Kampmann was ####### nuts. Shame Carlos lost in the end, but still a damn good fight.

 

[modogg]

Round one of Condit/Kampmann was ####### nuts. Shame Carlos lost in the end, but still a damn good fight.

Yeah Carlos will be fine and they will give him a nice match-up for his next fight to let him get some wins under his belt in the UFC. he certainly didn't hurt his stock tonight.

 

[modogg]

Added a parlay which should turn out alright: Griffin, Aaron Simpson, Rob Kimmons, Brock Larson, and Tibau: $25 to win $88, and all have solid chances of winningand Zander i saw you wrote earlier about Tibau earlier. I just read something about there is speculation that Stephens may be hurt. Both Tibau and Stephens came in over weight, but Stephens missed by 3-4 pounds. the thought is to miss it that much he probably has an injury that didn't let him do the cardio needed to lose the weight. pretty sound theory to me. i liked Tibau before, and if this is the case it could be a good bet

Figures. I will sound like a sore winnner here, but i went 3-0 tonight, but i bet the least i have bet since being on this thread. The Parlay above hit, which was a nice treat, but it was a $20 parlay and payed $74. nice to have, but considering i threw away a ton more money on other cards it is bittersweet. but low units are the way to go. i got murdered in NHL and NBA bets tonight, so i wish i would have upped these.And i think that every single one of the favorites won tonight. I don't know if this will be a trend, but fight night cards seem to be set-up more to sell fighters. maybe the odds-makers are getting much better with this too, but i am sure it is something to keep in mind. i only have one underdog in upcoming matches and that is Wanderlei over Rich Franklin, and that is for .75 unit. All i can think of with that fight is Wanderlei and his Muay Thai plumb. he doesn't have the reach of Anderson Silva, but i don't think Franklin is a safe bet to win

 

[thatguy]

On a side note I was glad to see Cutler enjoying himself. ####er.

 

[sheerterror]

Added a parlay which should turn out alright: Griffin, Aaron Simpson, Rob Kimmons, Brock Larson, and Tibau: $25 to win $88, and all have solid chances of winningand Zander i saw you wrote earlier about Tibau earlier. I just read something about there is speculation that Stephens may be hurt. Both Tibau and Stephens came in over weight, but Stephens missed by 3-4 pounds. the thought is to miss it that much he probably has an injury that didn't let him do the cardio needed to lose the weight. pretty sound theory to me. i liked Tibau before, and if this is the case it could be a good bet

Figures. I will sound like a sore winnner here, but i went 3-0 tonight, but i bet the least i have bet since being on this thread. The Parlay above hit, which was a nice treat, but it was a $20 parlay and payed $74. nice to have, but considering i threw away a ton more money on other cards it is bittersweet. but low units are the way to go. i got murdered in NHL and NBA bets tonight, so i wish i would have upped these.And i think that every single one of the favorites won tonight. I don't know if this will be a trend, but fight night cards seem to be set-up more to sell fighters. maybe the odds-makers are getting much better with this too, but i am sure it is something to keep in mind. i only have one underdog in upcoming matches and that is Wanderlei over Rich Franklin, and that is for .75 unit. All i can think of with that fight is Wanderlei and his Muay Thai plumb. he doesn't have the reach of Anderson Silva, but i don't think Franklin is a safe bet to win

That's rough Mo. It always feels like you never have enough on a fight/game when it wins - but it's even worse when you KNOW you didn't have enough on it in comparison to other plays. If nothing more - hopefully this gets you back on track with MMA and you can do some damage in a few weeks with UFC 97.

 

[Abrantes]

On a side note I was glad to see Cutler enjoying himself. ####er.

 

[sheerterror]

Henderson -500/Bisping +300

I don't think Bisping is all that good of a fighter - not in the elite tier of the middleweight division yet at least. Henderson is a solid, solid fighter - but in no way shape or form should he be -500 in this fight. I fully expect him to win, but at this price, I have to lock in Bisping +300 in principle.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Henderson -500/Bisping +300 I don't think Bisping is all that good of a fighter - not in the elite tier of the middleweight division yet at least. Henderson is a solid, solid fighter - but in no way shape or form should he be -500 in this fight. I fully expect him to win, but at this price, I have to lock in Bisping +300 in principle.

That is a huge number, but you get numbers like that when it's extremely difficult to make a credible argument for how the other guy can win.

 

[Deadpool]

Henderson -500/Bisping +300 I don't think Bisping is all that good of a fighter - not in the elite tier of the middleweight division yet at least. Henderson is a solid, solid fighter - but in no way shape or form should he be -500 in this fight. I fully expect him to win, but at this price, I have to lock in Bisping +300 in principle.

That is a huge number, but you get numbers like that when it's extremely difficult to make a credible argument for how the other guy can win.

exactly....how can bisping win this fight....

 

[sheerterror]

Henderson -500/Bisping +300

I don't think Bisping is all that good of a fighter - not in the elite tier of the middleweight division yet at least. Henderson is a solid, solid fighter - but in no way shape or form should he be -500 in this fight. I fully expect him to win, but at this price, I have to lock in Bisping +300 in principle.

That is a huge number, but you get numbers like that when it's extremely difficult to make a credible argument for how the other guy can win.

exactly....how can bisping win this fight....

I could have said the same thing regarding Mir against Nogueira a few months back and we all know what happened there.To me, the bottom line is that when you get towards the top of the weight class (and I say towards because I maintain that Bisping is not in the top tier of the MWs yet) it's hard to justify laying -500 on anybody other than Anderson Silva when they are fighting another solid opponent. As I said, I fully expect Henderson to win, but I think the fight will be kept close enough that at a certain point I'll be saying to myself "Man, I'm glad I'm getting 3 to 1 right now." I think Bisping wins this fight more often than the current odds suggest.

 

[modogg]

I could have said the same thing regarding Mir against Nogueira a few months back and we all know what happened there.

To me, the bottom line is that when you get towards the top of the weight class (and I say towards because I maintain that Bisping is not in the top tier of the MWs yet) it's hard to justify laying -500 on anybody other than Anderson Silva when they are fighting another solid opponent. As I said, I fully expect Henderson to win, but I think the fight will be kept close enough that at a certain point I'll be saying to myself "Man, I'm glad I'm getting 3 to 1 right now." I think Bisping wins this fight more often than the current odds suggest.

I actually think Bisping has a a reasonable chance to win. Hendo is good, and will certainly train hard for this fight, but the only loss I think Bisping has is to Rashad Evans and that was Rashad relying on his wrestling and weight advantage to take Bisping down to out point him. I think the best bet for this one is if you could bet on the fight going the distance, i think that is a lock. Now who will look more dominant in those 3 rounds, i am not sure. Yes, no doubt Hendo should be the favorite, but Bisping has a good chance. I would take it but i am still getting over the losses of money i had with Stevenson, Jardine and other underdogs i thought had a chance. Looking at this one, Bisping i think may have a pretty solid chance. I am sure Rampage is helping Bisping train hard against Hendo. And if you like Hendo, i certainly say wait until right before the fight. i am betting the public comes in heavy on Bisping with that number. Not too crazy, but i am sure he won't be +300 before the fight.

And i just went to put in a bet on a guy who has won me a lot in the past. I went to put money on Eddie Alvarez in the upcoming Belafort tounrament. I figured Eddie would be the favorite, probably +250 or so. The guy he is fighting is supposed to be the best fighter right now in Ireland, but i have never seen or heard of him outisde of an article i read the other day. Anyway, Eddie right now is +1100!! that is just out of hand. i wouldn't bet against him, but the other guy is +600 and he is supposed to be pretty good. i am guessing not in Alvarez's class, but at +600 that is worth a shot. i won't take it, but maybe somebody else wants to

 

[modogg]

so i was looking at the DREAM 8 card, and i think there is some good value on it. i guess the fights are 4/5 so there isn't a ton of time, but here are two i like:

305 Shinya Aoki -200 over

01:00 ET Hayoto Sakurai

+160

Jeff Monson +185 over Sergei Kharitonov

I believe Monson is on a 5-0 run and is doing well. now i am not overly familiar with Sergei, but i believe he is a real good striker with K-1 experience and he has beat some impressive guys (Werdum, Rizzo, Overeem). I think Monson has value here though, anybody have an opinion? And i think Aoki should beat Sakurai. I just saw Sakurai beat him before in Shooto in '05, but Aoki is getting better. His stand-up still sucks, and i am not a fan of his at all, but Aoki has such sick submissions these days. is he good value at -200, or does Sakurai have a fair chance to beat him?

and anybody have an opinion about the WEC card on Sunday? i think the Curran - Joseph B fight will be a real good one, and I think there is huge value in Manny Tapia at -160. anybody have any opinions here?

 

[Abrantes]

so i was looking at the DREAM 8 card, and i think there is some good value on it. i guess the fights are 4/5 so there isn't a ton of time, but here are two i like:

305 Shinya Aoki -200 over

01:00 ET Hayoto Sakurai

+160

Jeff Monson +185 over Sergei Kharitonov

I believe Monson is on a 5-0 run and is doing well. now i am not overly familiar with Sergei, but i believe he is a real good striker with K-1 experience and he has beat some impressive guys (Werdum, Rizzo, Overeem). I think Monson has value here though, anybody have an opinion? And i think Aoki should beat Sakurai. I just saw Sakurai beat him before in Shooto in '05, but Aoki is getting better. His stand-up still sucks, and i am not a fan of his at all, but Aoki has such sick submissions these days. is he good value at -200, or does Sakurai have a fair chance to beat him?

and anybody have an opinion about the WEC card on Sunday? i think the Curran - Joseph B fight will be a real good one, and I think there is huge value in Manny Tapia at -160. anybody have any opinions here?

Should be a really good day for MMA, between DREAM and WEC.I'm not the biggest fan of Monson, and actually think he should've lost the decision to Roy Nelson, but there's no denying that he's a solid fighter. He's strong, but his striking is rather basic, and limited by his height and short reach (dude is a 5'9 heavyweight). He's also very good at controlling his opponents on the ground when he's on top, although I think Kharitonov's ground game is good enough to prevent any actual submissions if he finds himself in trouble. Kharitonov sometimes has an annoying habit of starting off slow in his fights, and has been marred by knee injuries a few years ago, but he's still a far better striker than Monson. If it ends up being a standup war, I have no doubt that Kharitonov will make short work of Monson. That's how I see the fight going down, although I suppose there's an off chance Monson manages to take Sergei down repeatedly for a decision. I just find that unlikely given that Monson's getting a bit long in the tooth, and seems a bit less explosive these days.

As for Aoki/Sakurai, I'd really like to see Sakurai winning. Mach Sakurai's a great stand-up fighter and a good wrestler, but he obviously can't risk playing into Aoki's game. Mach's striking defense has actually degenerated quite a bit with all the wars he's been through, but his standup is still infinitely better than Aoki's nonexistent striking. He does have a very good shot if he manages to avoid the ground game, although I agree that Aoki improved a lot since their last meeting. I'd be more likely to bet on Sakurai than Monson, if it came down to that.

On a different note, the WEC event looks phenomenal. Even the undercard has excellent fights. I agree with you that Tapia is good value at -160, and I also think Benavidez is gonna wreck Curran's debut at 135lbs. Wagnney and Assunção should also win their fights, although I'm not sure if their lines are as enticing.

 

[modogg]

so i was looking at the DREAM 8 card, and i think there is some good value on it. i guess the fights are 4/5 so there isn't a ton of time, but here are two i like:

305 Shinya Aoki -200 over

01:00 ET Hayoto Sakurai

+160

Jeff Monson +185 over Sergei Kharitonov

I believe Monson is on a 5-0 run and is doing well. now i am not overly familiar with Sergei, but i believe he is a real good striker with K-1 experience and he has beat some impressive guys (Werdum, Rizzo, Overeem). I think Monson has value here though, anybody have an opinion? And i think Aoki should beat Sakurai. I just saw Sakurai beat him before in Shooto in '05, but Aoki is getting better. His stand-up still sucks, and i am not a fan of his at all, but Aoki has such sick submissions these days. is he good value at -200, or does Sakurai have a fair chance to beat him?

and anybody have an opinion about the WEC card on Sunday? i think the Curran - Joseph B fight will be a real good one, and I think there is huge value in Manny Tapia at -160. anybody have any opinions here?

Should be a really good day for MMA, between DREAM and WEC.I'm not the biggest fan of Monson, and actually think he should've lost the decision to Roy Nelson, but there's no denying that he's a solid fighter. He's strong, but his striking is rather basic, and limited by his height and short reach (dude is a 5'9 heavyweight). He's also very good at controlling his opponents on the ground when he's on top, although I think Kharitonov's ground game is good enough to prevent any actual submissions if he finds himself in trouble. Kharitonov sometimes has an annoying habit of starting off slow in his fights, and has been marred by knee injuries a few years ago, but he's still a far better striker than Monson. If it ends up being a standup war, I have no doubt that Kharitonov will make short work of Monson. That's how I see the fight going down, although I suppose there's an off chance Monson manages to take Sergei down repeatedly for a decision. I just find that unlikely given that Monson's getting a bit long in the tooth, and seems a bit less explosive these days.

As for Aoki/Sakurai, I'd really like to see Sakurai winning. Mach Sakurai's a great stand-up fighter and a good wrestler, but he obviously can't risk playing into Aoki's game. Mach's striking defense has actually degenerated quite a bit with all the wars he's been through, but his standup is still infinitely better than Aoki's nonexistent striking. He does have a very good shot if he manages to avoid the ground game, although I agree that Aoki improved a lot since their last meeting. I'd be more likely to bet on Sakurai than Monson, if it came down to that.

On a different note, the WEC event looks phenomenal. Even the undercard has excellent fights. I agree with you that Tapia is good value at -160, and I also think Benavidez is gonna wreck Curran's debut at 135lbs. Wagnney and Assunção should also win their fights, although I'm not sure if their lines are as enticing.

thanks. i agree with you that Monson should have lost to Nelson, and that helped my decision not to bet on him. i also passed on Aoki. i'll save up for WEC tomorrow. Benavidez vs. Curran i think will be a real good fight. Wagney and the other guy you mentioned are both -500, but if i can get a parlay i'll throw them in. i also am thinking about Palaszewski over Njokuani. i am not sure if Bart is more hype than substance, but if all i am reading about him is true he should definately win

 

[zander_s]

Ticket for tonight so far

Tapia -135

Benavidez -125

Still looking

ETA - minor upset of the night

Ben Henderson +160

It's just a gut feeling, so don't tail with confidence!