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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (5 Viewers)

Angry Beavers said:
Miocic as a dog priced at +150 or higher has a ton of value IMHO. I think there are a few others in the gambling thread that concur. 
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Getting a champ that has successfully defended his title at +150 seems like a good bet to me too. But Stipe has to have a very humble approach to his game plan. Round betting might be a better approach for Stipe. He shouldn’t be going for a finish in the first round. He took Hunt to the 5th and Nelson to a 3 round Decision. 

I don’t think Ngannou has been into even the 3rd round. You have to think the logically Stipe should try to leg kick and clinch as much as possible for the first couple of rounds with the plan that Ngannou gasses a bit and loses some power. Ngannou can generate too much power even in awkward throwing positions for Stipe to go in for an early finish.

Stipe’s only “submission” Win was a submission to legs kicks. By KO/TKO/DQ Stipe in the 2nd is +1000, 3rd +1800, 4th +2500, 5th +3500. So $100 on each and your worst payout is $1000 on basically a $400 (betting each of the last 4 rounds) is a +250 payout. Which isn’t that much better than the +150 to Win line but it also leaves leaves the door open for up to, essentially, +875 (3500/400) pay out if Stipe stops him in the 5th. 

 
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I've asked this question before and am always line shopping.

What sites do you guys use? 

I have money in 5dimes, betonline (horrendous props but getting better), and wagerweb. 

Finally, I'm always down to DraftKings with anyone. I'll even volunteer to set it up.

 
GOB said:
I've asked this question before and am always line shopping.

What sites do you guys use? 

I have money in 5dimes, betonline (horrendous props but getting better), and wagerweb. 

Finally, I'm always down to DraftKings with anyone. I'll even volunteer to set it up.
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I use Bet365. But that’s because I have a buddy that has an account there that I go through since I can’t get an account anywhere because my bank won’t allow me to use my cards for “illegal” gambling.

That probably isn’t that helpful for recommending a site but incase you (or anyone) was wondering where I got my lines from. 

 
GOB said:
Finally, I'm always down to DraftKings with anyone. I'll even volunteer to set it up.
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What do you normally run out for a UFC card on DK? 

Lately, for most cards, I'll have about $20-$25 in play (I currently have $90 something available in that account, I've never made a deposit on DK) mixed up between GPP and cash games.  I'll create 3 unique lineups and put them into the $1 and $2 single entry GPP and one entry into the $3 max 3 entry GPP.  Then I'll put each of those 3 lineups into the $.25 GPP (probably a waste) and something like $3 worth of 5050, double ups, and triple ups (in case the lineup is good enough to make money back but not cash in the GPPs, or hit on them all).  Then I'll create some additional lineups for the $1 multi entry GPP and anything other contest that sticks out.

Think I'm spreading myself too thin here?  Too many lineups?  A lessor version of this approach got my account up to around 50 or 60 bucks, then I dipped down to almost being all in when I hit for 2nd place and $75 on a $1 entry.  

 
Punxsutawney Phil said:
A few other good lightweights added to upcoming events.  Al Iaquinta vs Paul Federer.  I like Federer, but think Al is a better boxer & wrestler.  Federer is a good kickboxer but I think Al will be too quick for him.

& Porier vs Gatje.  I think Porier got screwed vs Eddie Alvarez, and I'm not sure beating up on a guy Alverz beats elevates him much.  I'm not sure why he would take this fight without insisting on a rematch vs Eddie.  
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I'd watch a catchweight Paul Federer vs. Rafa "Sapo" Nadal.

(sorry)
(I probably wouldn't, Sapo's fights are steaming hot garbage)

 
Bobcat10 said:
What do you normally run out for a UFC card on DK? 

Lately, for most cards, I'll have about $20-$25 in play (I currently have $90 something available in that account, I've never made a deposit on DK) mixed up between GPP and cash games.  I'll create 3 unique lineups and put them into the $1 and $2 single entry GPP and one entry into the $3 max 3 entry GPP.  Then I'll put each of those 3 lineups into the $.25 GPP (probably a waste) and something like $3 worth of 5050, double ups, and triple ups (in case the lineup is good enough to make money back but not cash in the GPPs, or hit on them all).  Then I'll create some additional lineups for the $1 multi entry GPP and anything other contest that sticks out.

Think I'm spreading myself too thin here?  Too many lineups?  A lessor version of this approach got my account up to around 50 or 60 bucks, then I dipped down to almost being all in when I hit for 2nd place and $75 on a $1 entry.  
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@John Bender

I honestly just started dipping my toe in DK. I usually build 2-3 lineups but the variance is usually 1 or 2 fighters. 

Then I have only played GPP. Only because I listen to a podcast and that's usually what he talks about. 

How successful are you on 50/50? Like I said I've only started on DK and either I'm in cash high or like dead last. So I'm probably just getting lucky.

 
Borden said:
Getting a champ that has successfully defended his title at +150 seems like a good bet to me too. But Stipe has to have a very humble approach to his game plan. Round betting might be a better approach for Stipe. He shouldn’t be going for a finish in the first round. He took Hunt to the 5th and Nelson to a 3 round Decision. 

I don’t think Ngannou has been into even the 3rd round. You have to think the logically Stipe should try to leg kick and clinch as much as possible for the first couple of rounds with the plan that Ngannou gasses a bit and loses some power. Ngannou can generate too much power even in awkward throwing positions for Stipe to go in for an early finish.

Stipe’s only “submission” Win was a submission to legs kicks. By KO/TKO/DQ Stipe in the 2nd is +1000, 3rd +1800, 4th +2500, 5th +3500. So $100 on each and your worst payout is $1000 on basically a $400 (betting each of the last 4 rounds) is a +250 payout. Which isn’t that much better than the +150 to Win line but it also leaves leaves the door open for up to, essentially, +875 (3500/400) pay out if Stipe stops him in the 5th. 
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I agree that the path for Stipe to win is to take Ngannou to deep waters. A quick look shows that he has to be into Round 3 in the UFC. I am not sure about his pre-UFC fights, but even still, it is has been a while since he has been into a fight over 10 minutes. I do think Stipe stops him in the 3rd or 4th. 

 
Angry Beavers said:
I agree that the path for Stipe to win is to take Ngannou to deep waters. A quick look shows that he has to be into Round 3 in the UFC. I am not sure about his pre-UFC fights, but even still, it is has been a while since he has been into a fight over 10 minutes. I do think Stipe stops him in the 3rd or 4th. 
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According to Ngannou’s Wiki he’s never been into the 3rd round. He has a win by Doctors Stoppage at 5:00 of the 2nd in the UFC so maybe that is considered a “3rd” round TKO?

I don’t mean to argue over something small, especially when we are agreeing. The other thing that would make me question Ngannou’s stamina, is the fact that he hasn’t been training that long. 

 
Curtis Blaydes was doctor stoppage. His eye was a mess and he was getting hurt badly.

Ngannou power is just unreal. When he snatched that kimura by sheer power was something to behold. 

 
I agree that Stipe's path to victory is via takedowns and ground and pound over the course of 3-4 rounds. I think he needs to feint and duck under the counter-punch into a takedown. 

 
Borden said:
According to Ngannou’s Wiki he’s never been into the 3rd round. He has a win by Doctors Stoppage at 5:00 of the 2nd in the UFC so maybe that is considered a “3rd” round TKO?

I don’t mean to argue over something small, especially when we are agreeing. The other thing that would make me question Ngannou’s stamina, is the fact that he hasn’t been training that long. 
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Sorry - meant to say NEVER been to the 3rd round in UFC - what i get for trying to post right before a meeting. :bag:

 
EYLive said:
I agree that Stipe's path to victory is via takedowns and ground and pound over the course of 3-4 rounds. I think he needs to feint and duck under the counter-punch into a takedown. 
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I think we are forgetting Stipe's power. In his last five fights he has knocked out or (TKO):

Junior dos Santos,- round 1

Allistar Overeem - round 1

Fabricio Werdum - round 1

Andre Orlovski - round 1

Mark Hunt - round 5

That's pretty serious #### right there.

 
kutta said:
I think we are forgetting Stipe's power. In his last five fights he has knocked out or (TKO):

Junior dos Santos,- round 1

Allistar Overeem - round 1

Fabricio Werdum - round 1

Andre Orlovski - round 1

Mark Hunt - round 5

That's pretty serious #### right there.
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Up until we met Francis Nganou, Stipe was the KO artist in the division, so I don't discount his power. But Francis's fists are deadly weapons. And if I'm his opponent, I'm gonna try to close the distance and put him on is back ASAP. 
 

 
EYLive said:
Up until we met Francis Nganou, Stipe was the KO artist in the division, so I don't discount his power. But Francis's fists are deadly weapons. And if I'm his opponent, I'm gonna try to close the distance and put him on is back ASAP. 
 
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I agree to a certain extent. I just think this is going to be a pretty good slugfest, and Miocic will come out on top. He's got some crazy power somehow, and I think he'll be able to out-experience Nganou - whether on the feet or ground.

I'm really looking forward to this fight - too bad the rest of the card is pretty blah.

 
kutta said:
I agree to a certain extent. I just think this is going to be a pretty good slugfest, and Miocic will come out on top. He's got some crazy power somehow, and I think he'll be able to out-experience Nganou - whether on the feet or ground.

I'm really looking forward to this fight - too bad the rest of the card is pretty blah.
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Yeah, my plan for Saturday is to tune into Bellator first then switch between UFC co-mains if there's overlap.

 
GOB said:
I've asked this question before and am always line shopping.

What sites do you guys use? 

I have money in 5dimes, betonline (horrendous props but getting better), and wagerweb. 

Finally, I'm always down to DraftKings with anyone. I'll even volunteer to set it up.
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I don't have much experience betting MMA (other than tailing hooter and modogg), but 5D seems like it's the best in terms of the variety it offers. BOL/Sportsbetting have, I think, the best reputation of any site. You really won't find any prices that are wildly off, everything is too sync'ed up, so for those purposes it's all pretty close to the same. 5D and BOL do typically have fairly low juice, though.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I don't have much experience betting MMA (other than tailing hooter and modogg), but 5D seems like it's the best in terms of the variety it offers. BOL/Sportsbetting have, I think, the best reputation of any site. You really won't find any prices that are wildly off, everything is too sync'ed up, so for those purposes it's all pretty close to the same. 5D and BOL do typically have fairly low juice, though.
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5D also seems to come out a day or so before BOL and I think I've sniped 1 or 2 lines.

I'm no @hooter311 but I still think MMA is a beatable gambling game.

 
AhrnCityPahnder said:
Can you easily explain this to someone who's never draftkinged before?
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No, but I'll try. I'm sure somebody will tell you better.

It's like football where you get $50k for 6 fighters. I've read an article or two, listen to a podcast or 3, and my strategy is all boom or bust.

You get 0.5 pts for a significant strike and 2 for a takedown. So I throw wrestlers out unless you are named Khabib. 3 pts for a ####### knockdown since those are so easy.

You get 100 pts for a first rd win. 70 for 2nd, etc. 25 for a decision.

There is more nuances obviously but I try to center on strikers and guys that have good chins (in theory will point their way up by sheer volume). 

Typically winner of GPP is 600+?? So 100 pts per fighter.

I really think @John Bender and @Bobcat10 would be much more help.

I'll post one of my lineups in a minute after I have my coffee.

 
GOB said:
@John Bender

I honestly just started dipping my toe in DK. I usually build 2-3 lineups but the variance is usually 1 or 2 fighters. 

Then I have only played GPP. Only because I listen to a podcast and that's usually what he talks about. 

How successful are you on 50/50? Like I said I've only started on DK and either I'm in cash high or like dead last. So I'm probably just getting lucky.
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I don't have much data to work with since until recently I was nearly 100% GPP like you.  And I don't track this stuff like I probably should.  But last event these were the cash game results:

Cashed - $3 double up w/ 475pts, $1 double up w/ 409.5, $1 double & triple up w/ 525, $1 triple up w/ 475

Did not cash - $1 double up w/ 409.5pts, $1 double up w/ 406, $1 5050 w/ 251

Not sure how much that helps, but the cut lines were right around the bolded scores.  I'm trying to supplement my GPP play and obviously the bolded scores did not cash GPP.  I was very close to covering those costs by also putting the lineups in cash contests.  The higher scores did well in everything so I won a few bucks.  

 
GOB said:
No, but I'll try. I'm sure somebody will tell you better.

It's like football where you get $50k for 6 fighters. I've read an article or two, listen to a podcast or 3, and my strategy is all boom or bust.

You get 0.5 pts for a significant strike and 2 for a takedown. So I throw wrestlers out unless you are named Khabib. 3 pts for a ####### knockdown since those are so easy.

You get 100 pts for a first rd win. 70 for 2nd, etc. 25 for a decision.

There is more nuances obviously but I try to center on strikers and guys that have good chins (in theory will point their way up by sheer volume). 

Typically winner of GPP is 600+?? So 100 pts per fighter.

I really think @John Bender and @Bobcat10 would be much more help.

I'll post one of my lineups in a minute after I have my coffee.
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That's pretty much the gist.  My strategy is pretty basic right now and here is how I got there.  

Every lineup has to feature a couple underdogs, so you have to find the live dogs.  I used to go to a couple sites, like Bloody Elbow, where a panel basically lists who they think is going to win every fight.  I would do this for straight wagering and DraftKings.  That just wasn't cutting it, too many times they were very heavy on favorites and things like that.  I always liked when @hooter311 would post some wagers on Twitter for me to tail or confirm what I was doing and even the wagering thread here sometimes had some good info.  There was just no consistency with those options, where Bloody Elbow had predictions of every single fight. 

Now I finally expanded my horizons on Twitter, and I have a twitter feed focused solely on some handicappers I've come across that essentially do all the fight tape research and post their wagers.  I track who they are betting and their bet size during the week or do a cram session like I'm going to do tonight.  I'll find other useful nuggets of info perusing through the tweets and comments.  That seems to funnel me down some good paths and I use that info to build my lineups.  These people track their bets on betmma.tips (I just figured this out last week) and if you go there you can find a ton of information and people tracking their bets some of which give away their info for free.

I tend to not get wrapped up in wrestler vs striker, although I understand you favoring strikers.  If a fighter can finish, he's on my radar.  I look at recent fight results, finish or not, who the opponents are, common opponents, long layoff, weight cut issues, etc.  Almost every lineup I use also features one of the fighters from the 5-round main event.

 
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Ariel Helwani‏Verified account @arielhelwani 8h8 hours ago

UFC just sent out another press release about tonight’s UFC 223 presser. This time, it calls Ferguson/Khabib a “lightweight title bout.” It didn’t state that yesterday.

 
kutta said:
I think we are forgetting Stipe's power. In his last five fights he has knocked out or (TKO):

Junior dos Santos,- round 1

Allistar Overeem - round 1

Fabricio Werdum - round 1

Andre Orlovski - round 1

Mark Hunt - round 5

That's pretty serious #### right there.




1
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There isn't a Ngannou in that list. dos Santos seems punch drunk after the first hard strike he takes. Overeem and Orlovski are chinny. Werdum ran stupidly into Miocic's fists. Hunt's reach is 9" less than Ngannou. I love me some Miocic, but he'll have to survive two rounds of hell to have a chance here. And that's if Ngannou has stamina issues. We are assuming he does because of his mass and the fact we've never seen him in Round 3. He's a freak of nature, so maybe he has freakish stamina as well.

 
Clayton Gray said:
There isn't a Ngannou in that list. dos Santos seems punch drunk after the first hard strike he takes. Overeem and Orlovski are chinny. Werdum ran stupidly into Miocic's fists. Hunt's reach is 9" less than Ngannou. I love me some Miocic, but he'll have to survive two rounds of hell to have a chance here. And that's if Ngannou has stamina issues. We are assuming he does because of his mass and the fact we've never seen him in Round 3. He's a freak of nature, so maybe he has freakish stamina as well.
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I agree. I’m just pointing out that everyone is talking about Ngannou’s power but we forget that Stipe is quite the knockout artist too. I’m hoping for a great fight where someone gets KO’d in round 1 or 2, but I can just as easily see either guy getting knocked out.

 
kutta said:
I agree. I’m just pointing out that everyone is talking about Ngannou’s power but we forget that Stipe is quite the knockout artist too. I’m hoping for a great fight where someone gets KO’d in round 1 or 2, but I can just as easily see either guy getting knocked out.
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i think it is hard to argue that Ngannou has better stand up technique then Hunt or Overeem, both former K-1 guys. Ngannou has power, no doubt about that, but if Stipe can hang with all of those other guys like he did, i have a hard time seeing him fall into a trap with Ngannou. I also think Miocic's coaches and camp are a bit under-rated. they gameplan very well

 
Miocic +165 and

Oezdemir +280 as well 

Value too good on Oezdemir to pass up. I wonder how DC will be after the beating he took from Jones, and he is 39. I think one belt changes hands tonight and it won't be stipe. 

GLTA
AB

 
Angry Beavers said:
Miocic +165 and

Oezdemir +280 as well 

Value too good on Oezdemir to pass up. I wonder how DC will be after the beating he took from Jones, and he is 39. I think one belt changes hands tonight and it won't be stipe. 

GLTA
AB
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Stipe +155

Almeida -110

Those are my two big bets. 

I bet every fight, because life is a gamble, but those are the two I like the most.

 
i like when they try to promote DC, it is those 2 same clips i think they show, they can't get anything else from any of his LHW fights?

 
Borden said:
More strikes and I’m guessing a higher land percentage too. I’m not sure how the grappling balanced out though. 
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was just bad judging, but they don't get to Massachusetts much so maybe the commission up there sucks. His takedowns were completely useless considering Davis wasn't down for longer then 3 seconds. Davis maybe could have done more, but honestly he just seemed to avoid most of the time, and kept failing trying for his takedowns. 30-27 had to be  :homer:  or  :suds:

 
modogg said:
was just bad judging, but they don't get to Massachusetts much so maybe the commission up there sucks. His takedowns were completely useless considering Davis wasn't down for longer then 3 seconds. Davis maybe could have done more, but honestly he just seemed to avoid most of the time, and kept failing trying for his takedowns. 30-27 had to be  :homer:  or  :suds:
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Bloody Elbow:  29-28 Bochniak

I didn’t think it was a clear fight either way but Davis didn’t do a whole bunch a side from center control. 

 
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