UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (3 Viewers)

[hooter311]

I must say, I had no idea that JDS would come in looking that huge next to Nelson.

Kind of regretting those bold Nelson predictions I've been throwing out there for months. If he can get it to the ground I still like his chances, but if he thinks he can box with JDS he is going to look like his face got caught in a blender.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I must say, I had no idea that JDS would come in looking that huge next to Nelson.Kind of regretting those bold Nelson predictions I've been throwing out there for months. If he can get it to the ground I still like his chances, but if he thinks he can box with JDS he is going to look like his face got caught in a blender.

Roy is going to need to be able to put JDS on his back consistently or be able to stand with JDS for prolonged periods of time. I don't think he'll be able to do either. Roy is more of a positional grappler, so I think it would be unlikely that he finishes JDS on the ground in the first. This assumes JDS has gotten much better on the ground since his pre-UFC days, and training at Black House for a few years I feel safe assuming that to be the case.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Alves misses weight buy half a pound.

I think he has another hour or so to cut it, I bet he makes it and it won't affect the fight when all is said and done. That doesn't mean that his conditioning hasn't suffered if he's had to cut an unhealthy amount the past few days. I think some of his 40 lbs over before camp talk has been an exaggeration, but I have no idea how much. Trying to keep my money as far away from this fight as possible.

the guy frustrates the hell out of me. He has to have learned his lesson on this one, losing 20% of his purse for .5 pound. I can't understand how he couldn't make weight though if he just had to lose .5 pound. The reports all over the MMA sites had Alves saying this was his easiest weight cut ever. What a mess, i would buy out of my Alves bet if the odds were not going against me.

Looks like the UFC gave him another 2 hours and he still couldn't drop the half pound. Two missed weigh-ins and a suspension for diuretics... you are not a welterweight Mr. Alves.

 

[sheerterror]

Great card tonight, but not much from a betting standpoint.

My largest wager was a 3u parlay of Anderson Silva, Junior Dos Santos and Phil Davis.

I have a little bit on Dos Anjos and Story for action's sake and I'll keep an eye on some line movement but that's probably about it. Hughes is starting to look bettable at +170 but I can't bring myself to back him.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Fitch to win 2u

dos Anjos to win 1u

Almeida to win 1u

wish I could do a silva, dos Santos and Davis parlay... Damn sportsbook.

 

[modogg]

I completely agree with Sheer on this card, great card but not a ton of value betting wise. Some of the lines have swung lately, so i may add a bit, but the funny thing is I am on the opposite side of almost the line movement

Almeida: biggest bet of the night. Still not a big bet compared to other cards, but really the only fight i feel comfortable with. Of course if Hughes is around +170, adn keeps climbing i may just arb out of it.

Alves: I am not real comfy with this bet, but the line moved against me so I am in for the play

Story

Struve

I may also put a little on some of the big dogs, like Sonnen, Nelson and Brenneman if the lines keep getting sweet. If i play any on these though it will be only for a few bucks.

 

[Sebowski]

1u on Silva, Davis, Hendricks parlay.

I can't bet against Nelson. I think he can finish the fight if he gets it the ground just once. Whether it is by sub or crucifix stoppage. The guy is hard to shake off and he is a very smart fighter.

Really want to bet on Almeida. Wish I would have when the line was better. Staying away now.

 

[modogg]

I will max bet every account i have on GSP when we get GSP-Fitch 2. Fitch has absolutely nothing to offer GSP since their last fight, and his lay and pray offense will not work against GSP. I didn't see all of the fight tonight, so maybe he pressed the action a little more, but unless GSP gets injured on his way to the Octagon I see no reason at all that Fitch can beat him

 

[kutta]

I will max bet every account i have on GSP when we get GSP-Fitch 2. Fitch has absolutely nothing to offer GSP since their last fight, and his lay and pray offense will not work against GSP. I didn't see all of the fight tonight, so maybe he pressed the action a little more, but unless GSP gets injured on his way to the Octagon I see no reason at all that Fitch can beat him

I agree. Looks like GSP is going to make the rounds through Koscheck then Fitch again. GSP will kill Fitch.

 

[Sebowski]

Koschek will be a more tougher test than Fitch. GSP should not look past Kos.

Fitch should fight the winner of Shields-Kampmann for the next shot after GSP-Kos

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Think GSP might be looking at MW after Chael's performance.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Really surprised at the Bisping-Akyiama line. Am I missing something or is Akyiama @ +205 great value?

 

[Abrantes]

Really surprised at the Bisping-Akyiama line. Am I missing something or is Akyiama @ +205 great value?

Not a huge Bisping fan, but he's still a tough ******* and Akiyama has gassed hideously in both of his UFC fights so far. Unlike Belcher and Leben, I wouldn't count on Bisping tiring out. +205 looks like good value, but I probably won't jump on it.

 

[modogg]

Really surprised at the Bisping-Akyiama line. Am I missing something or is Akyiama @ +205 great value?

Not a huge Bisping fan, but he's still a tough ******* and Akiyama has gassed hideously in both of his UFC fights so far. Unlike Belcher and Leben, I wouldn't count on Bisping tiring out. +205 looks like good value, but I probably won't jump on it.

i agree. i am not sure what to expect from Akiyama at this point, and outside of Henderson KO'ing Bisping, he has held his own for the most part. i like +200 with an established vet, but i think the line is pretty close. if i had to make a play, i think Akiyama woulsd make more sense, but it would be alight play

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I don't think Bisping can push the pace to fatigue Akyiama as much Leben or Belcher, and when not gassed, Akyiama is a quicker and more slick with his striking.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Big Nog injured and withdraws from the Mir fight at 119. Cro-cop steps in.

 

[Possum]

WEC 50 tonight - looks like some great fights.

Pickett-Jorgenson should be pretty awesome, and I always like watching Bartimus go at it. Chad Mendes looks like a badass up and comer at FW but Swanson is tough as hell too.

 

[modogg]

WEC 50 tonight - looks like some great fights. Pickett-Jorgenson should be pretty awesome, and I always like watching Bartimus go at it. Chad Mendes looks like a badass up and comer at FW but Swanson is tough as hell too.

Yup, pretty sweet card tonight. I think i will let the dogs bark going for some low risk plays and see how it goes:Maciej Jewtuszko +400Zack Micklewright +160Javier Vazquez -200Joseph Benavidez +190I like Cruz a lot, not sure why i threw a little on Benavidez, but i did. All somewhat light plays, and we'll see how they go.

 

[Abrantes]

WEC 50 tonight - looks like some great fights.

Pickett-Jorgenson should be pretty awesome, and I always like watching Bartimus go at it. Chad Mendes looks like a badass up and comer at FW but Swanson is tough as hell too.

Looks to be another sweet WEC show, and Pickett/Jorgensen should rule.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

all these matchups look good.

 

[Abrantes]

Quick main card calls:

Cruz

Pettis (tough call)

Swanson

Pickett

Palaszewski

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

 

[Abrantes]

Mazza was unusually quick on that stoppage, but Bartimus would've just punished him more from that spot.

PS. Great fight.

 

[modogg]

WEC 50 tonight - looks like some great fights. Pickett-Jorgenson should be pretty awesome, and I always like watching Bartimus go at it. Chad Mendes looks like a badass up and comer at FW but Swanson is tough as hell too.

Yup, pretty sweet card tonight. I think i will let the dogs bark going for some low risk plays and see how it goes:Maciej Jewtuszko +400Zack Micklewright +160Javier Vazquez -200Joseph Benavidez +190I like Cruz a lot, not sure why i threw a little on Benavidez, but i did. All somewhat light plays, and we'll see how they go.

I added some money on Pickett because I somehow double-bet Micklewright . Really wish I would have done that with one of my other bets (trying to avoid any possible spoilers)

 

[Abrantes]

Man, Pickett landed some BOMBS. Jorgensen has one hell of a chin. I had it 29-28, not 30-27, but agree with the judges' decision. I was rooting for One-Punch Pickett, though.

 

[Abrantes]

Nice ground 'n' pound by Money Mendes.

 

[modogg]

Nice ground 'n' pound by Money Mendes.

yeah, i don't know when Cub got so bad. i thought i read how he trained with Greg Jackson's camp for this one, and i thought he would come out looking a little sharper. i haven't watched Mendes too much, so i don't know if his wrestling is that good or Cub's wrestling is that bad

 

[Abrantes]

Mendes put on a positioning CLINIC. Next time he better try to actually do some damage, though. It was ridiculous how little work he did from the top.

Seriously, it was like a bad Ishida fight, but with even LESS ground 'n' pound. I wouldn't have batted an eye if someone had scored that 29-28 for Swanson.

 

[Abrantes]

Pettis bustin' out the capoeira~! He's so much fun to watch.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I do not like Boner on the mic.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Great fight, Great finish by Pettis. Pettis/Aldo is going to be fun!

 

[modogg]

Great fight, Great finish by Pettis. Pettis/Aldo is going to be fun!

Could justify a second PPV for WEC. Pettis certainly warrants a fight on the main card for a long time. I have to think anybody who would watch him fight would enjoy it

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Guh, I'm in the wrong weight class. Pettis / Henderson.

 

[Abrantes]

Edit: Yeah, dude. Pettis/Bendo should be awesome, though.

Pettis looked really sharp. Very impressed with his takedown defense there.

 

[Softballguy]

Crazy amounts of money on Pettis from those of us in Team Red camp. Great finish.

 

[Abrantes]

Extra thanks to Pettis for not making me look completely dumb on my predictions. Just need a Cruz win to make it 3-2.

 

[modogg]

Crazy amounts of money on Pettis from those of us in Team Red camp. Great finish.

Congrats. I was glad i put some on Pettis at the last minute myself. My beauty tonight though was going aginst Njoukani again with Maciej Jewtuszko +400. I can't figure out why the books love Anthony so much. Granted he is great to watch and can stand and trade with the best of him, but that line was a little too highAnd this Cruz-Benavidez fight looks as silly as Struve-Nelson. It literally looks like Cruz is fighting a little kid

 

[modogg]

I do not like Boner on the mic.

Agreed. They really are having a tough time finding someone who seems to fit in that spot. Mir certainly had his faults, and Bonner isn't really any better. I think Florian did alright, but he may take some time getting used to, adn we have to wait for his career to slow down some more. If Randy would ever retire he would probably fill the role nice. I would enjoy them allowing Chuck to try, but I am pretty sure I am the only one who feels that way. he couldn't be worse then Tito.And scoring some of these fights tonight is a little tough. I am guessing this Cruz-Benadivez fight might be 2 rounds each going into the 5th

 

[modogg]

Benavidez, having to go for that last kick to get taken down at the end of the 5th round cost me a bit. great fight, and real hard to score each round (i thought)

 

[Abrantes]

Like Byrd, I had it 49-46 for Cruz, but only rounds 1 and 4 were clearly his, I thought. The other two could've gone either way. Crazy fight, and a great way to close out the event. As always, lots of fun.

 

[Possum]

Mendes put on a positioning CLINIC. Next time he better try to actually do some damage, though. It was ridiculous how little work he did from the top.Seriously, it was like a bad Ishida fight, but with even LESS ground 'n' pound. I wouldn't have batted an eye if someone had scored that 29-28 for Swanson.

I like Mendes' athleticism and potential, but he sure took a page out of the Jake Shields playbook last night - that was a little disappointing.I was rooting for Pickett too, but Jorgenson's just a beast. Really liked seeing Bartimus and Pettis get the win in their fights though, both those dudes are fun to watch.

 

[modogg]

I wish i would have put more money on this originally, but I am real high on Tim Kennedy over Jacare tomorrow night. I got him for +215, and i think he is around +185 now. I think he matches up well, and with his commitment to MMA the last year or so, you can see the improvements in his abilities. I think Mayhem would have beat Souza if he didn't get the dumb penalty, and i was not too impressed with his fight against Villasenor. Not sure if i will play anything else tomorrow night right now.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I wish i would have put more money on this originally, but I am real high on Tim Kennedy over Jacare tomorrow night. I got him for +215, and i think he is around +185 now. I think he matches up well, and with his commitment to MMA the last year or so, you can see the improvements in his abilities. I think Mayhem would have beat Souza if he didn't get the dumb penalty, and i was not too impressed with his fight against Villasenor. Not sure if i will play anything else tomorrow night right now.

I tend to agree here.

Also, wtmf happened with this SF MW tourney they've been talking about. I just now realized this Kennedy/Jacare fight is for the belt?!?

 

[modogg]

I wish i would have put more money on this originally, but I am real high on Tim Kennedy over Jacare tomorrow night. I got him for +215, and i think he is around +185 now. I think he matches up well, and with his commitment to MMA the last year or so, you can see the improvements in his abilities. I think Mayhem would have beat Souza if he didn't get the dumb penalty, and i was not too impressed with his fight against Villasenor. Not sure if i will play anything else tomorrow night right now.

I tend to agree here.

Also, wtmf happened with this SF MW tourney they've been talking about. I just now realized this Kennedy/Jacare fight is for the belt?!?

yeah, they are a mess. i was watching MMA live last night, and i guess the latest rumor is they will try to have a tournament to determine the #1 contendor. Dan Henderson was on last night to say who he was going to fight, and that didn't happen either. Hendo said it was CBS and Strikeforce still trying to decide what to do

 

[Clayton Gray]

Also, wtmf happened with this SF MW tourney they've been talking about. I just now realized this Kennedy/Jacare fight is for the belt?!?

Nobody cares about that belt. A few of the guys they had penciled in didn't want to participate.

 

[Chris B.]

Bobby Lashly is a bum.

 

[modogg]

Bobby Lashly is a bum.

I thought i had a small play on Griggs at +350, but i guess i never hit "submit". I really, really hate when i do that. Hopefully Kennedy can help me forget this dumb mistaskeEDIT: Man, Strikeforce is tough to watch when you have to hear Frank Shamrock babbling the whole time. I really wish they would get Miletich in there more, or try anybody else. Literally makes the fights practically unwatcheable

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Bobby Lashly is a bum.

I thought i had a small play on Griggs at +350, but i guess i never hit "submit". I really, really hate when i do that. Hopefully Kennedy can help me forget this dumb mistaskeEDIT: Man, Strikeforce is tough to watch when you have to hear Frank Shamrock babbling the whole time. I really wish they would get Miletich in there more, or try anybody else. Literally makes the fights practically unwatcheable

Between this is having a fighter just gas out every other fight, it just seems so second rate compared to the UFC

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Coker must be furious that all his studs are losing.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Link

In a quite refreshing piece of honesty, Forrest Griffin has confessed Jon Jones would 'whoop my ###' if speculation proves to be true that Griffin is the youngster's next opponent.

Griffin is currently enduring a lengthy absence due to a shoulder injury, having pulled out of a UFC 114 clash with Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. The former TUF competitor has not fought since UFC 106 when he beat Tito Ortiz in November 2009.

His return is expected to come at UFC 123 against 23-year-old light-heavyweight starlet Jones, who has been guaranteed a top-10 opponent following his destruction of Vladimir Matyushenko. Griffin admits he would not turn the fight down, but in a shocking piece of realism he confessed he would expect to be beaten as badly as he was by Anderson Silva at UFC 101.

"I hope I am not fighting Jon 'Bones' Jones," Griffin told the Jason Ellis Show on Sirius XM radio. "I might be. F*** it; if I am, I am. I will do it.

"But I am not even training right now. That is a bad dude. That dude will whoop my ###. F*** it. What is the worst, I mean, it could not be worse than Anderson Silva. It should not be worse than that, right?



"Every fight I go into, no matter what happens, it could not be worse than Anderson Silva. [Anderson punched me] repeatedly and I was very confused. I tried to punch him and he literally moved his head out of the way and looked at me like I was stupid for doing it.

"He looked at me like, 'why would you do such a stupid thing?' He looked at me like, 'oh, did you really think you were going to hit me? What a stupid thing to think, you slow slow white boy.' Then he punched me. I felt embarrassed for even trying to punch him."