hooter311
Footballguy
Correct, I should have said "beat" a great wrestler. Let's not pretend that Hardy had any offense at all in his fight against GSP. He was completely manhandled from the beginning.
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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
- Start date
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Agreed. I'm a fan of Hardy as a character but not of his fighting. Guy is very over-hyped. For someone who supposedly has so much power you'd figure he'd have more than 1 KO in 5 fights in the UFC. His career totals of 23 wins with only 11 by KO isn't that impressive.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Didn't like much on this card. Did a half unit parlay on Maldonado/Kongo and half a unit on Akiyama straight at +160.
Tony Jabroni
Footballguy
Is Lesnar fighting tonight or next weekend?
Invited some people over expecting it was tonight....
Invited some people over expecting it was tonight....
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Lesnar is not tonight. I just realized it's on Spike at 8. Yowzers!I need to check this thread more. Didn't realize it was tape delayed either.Is Lesnar fighting tonight or next weekend?Invited some people over expecting it was tonight....
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Tony Jabroni
Footballguy
Excellent. I am a moron.Lesnar is not tonight. I just realized it's on Spike at 8. Yowzers!I need to check this thread more. Didn't realize it was tape delayed either.Is Lesnar fighting tonight or next weekend?Invited some people over expecting it was tonight....
Sweatpants
Footballguy
Another UFC. Another one I didn't watch
Officer Pete Malloy
Footballguy
A couple of decent fights tonight. Pyle looked good. Condit dropped Hardy like 3rd period French. Kongo is a cheater and Akiyama needs more Oil of Olay.
Can't remember the last time he didn't low-blow someone.Glad that no one won that fight. If he stays in the UFC, expect Kongo to be on the undercard in the future.Hardy got a lot of mileage out of beating Marcus Davis (who looks finished) and Mike Swick (who was also overrated at the time). Not a surprise that Hardy's on the way back down.Other thoughts
yle looked fantastic.Bisping has the least power imaginable. Bummed that Sexyama couldn't flash KO him. Oh well.
Abrantes
Footballguy
First three fights were turds, but the last two made up for it. The Sass/Holtz prelim was great fun as well. Total highlight reel KO for Condit, just beautiful stuff. Reminiscent of Couture/Liddell in that both landed almost exactly at the same time, but Condit's shot was sharper. Akiyama and Bisping was fun in that both landed some BOMBS~, but kept going. Can't believe Sass keeps catching people with triangles. High time his opponents game-planned for it, and they should from now on. Fun fight, regardless.
Officer Pete Malloy
Footballguy
I'm not sure how much danger Hathaway was in (in terms of a submission) but I'm pretty sure I would have tapped due to a combination of being teabagged and punched in the forehead 73 times.Can't remember the last time he didn't low-blow someone.Pyle looked fantastic.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
They're going to run out of mid-tier guys for Bisping soon enough. I don't think he'll ever beat a top 5-7 guy.
Sebowski
Footballguy
And he's got the balls to say he is one win away from a title shot. I don't think he can beat anyone in the top 5. Without looking at a list I'd be hesitant to put him higher than 8.
hooter311
Footballguy
I'm 3-0 winning money on Bisping in 2010.I do think he is capable of outpointing Wande in a rematch.Condit proved he is a legit bad man. But I don't think he has the total skillset to ever compete for a title. There is talk about him vs Fitch for his next match up. Fitch will smother him.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
A SilvaBelfortMarquardtSonnenMaiaOkamiAll handle him easily IMO. Guys that might or might not beat him (again, in Wandy's case)
ollowayWandyBelcher
YSR
Footballguy
-125 at Betus.
Sebowski
Footballguy
He gets by Dolloway, loses to Wandy, Belcher, and Leben owns him in a rematch. Munoz gives him trouble. If Grove shows up to fight he wins.AhrnCityPahnder said:A SilvaBelfortMarquardtSonnenMaiaOkamiAll handle him easily IMO. Guys that might or might not beat him (again, in Wandy's case)Sebowski said:
modogg
Footballguy
For the life of me, i need help with this fight. I do not know why so many people seem to be thinking Cain will win this fight. I really don't see why people should not unload on Brock. Yes, Cain KO'd Big Nog, but there was something obviously up with Nog in that fight. I have to rewatch Valesquez-Ben Rothwell, but from what i remember all Cain did vs. Rothwell and Kongo were take them down repeatedly and GNP and them. The fight I keep on thinking about was Cain's fight before those on the Fight Night against Stojnic. I see he got a 2nd round TKO, but I remember he looked horrible in that fight and did not impress at all. So i would love to hear how Cain may beat Brock. I hear the argument that he can complete the job that Carwin couldn't, but I think Carwin's power far outweighs Cain's. Cain can certainly outbox Brock, but i don't know how much Brock will want to stand with Cain. I am pretty confident Brock can put Cain on his back, and yes Cain may survive down there, but I can not see how Cain can possibly win this fight, and I would love to hear the arguments as to how he can
hooter311
Footballguy
I'm with you. A fair number of the handicappers I'm seeing are picking Cain and I can't see it for the life of me. Maybe it's because I feel so strongly about Carwin. If Brock could eat those shots like he did, he has to be superhuman. Cain couldn't finish Kongo and was rocked by him more than once. Plus he will be giving up about 40 lbs on fight night to Brock, in a straight wrestling match thats an overwhelming advantage. His striking may be superior, but once Brock latches on to him from on top there is going to be nowhere to go, and I don't care how good of a striker he is, he can't punch harder than Carwin. I think we're going to see Brock look a little leaner and meaner than last time at the weigh in in preparation for a cardio test. I also think back to some of the stuff they were claiming about Brock's illness, saying he was about 50% in all his fights before Carwin. Sounds crazy, and I never thought I'd say this, but I'm buying the hype.Is it really Mexican cartel money keeping this line low?
modogg
Footballguy
That stuff about him recovering from the illness rally had me liking Carwin going into that one, and i still think Carwin could be a good bet when they fight again, but you are right with lesnar being able to survive the straight 30-35 punches from Carwin should stand for something. I'm trying not to put too much money on this one because i had a little bit of a rockie weekend on the gambling side of things, but I really think that Brock is a very, very good bet this weekend. I will still try and catch some more of Cain's fights, especially that Rothwell one, but I have yet to see what Cain brings that is so dangerous. One thing I do want to find out though is who the ref will be. Any other ref but Rosenthal in that last Lesnar fight may have called it, and I hope he oversees this one as wellAnd I do like when they encourage Brock to talk during the Countdown shows: " Alright, when I get done whooping your ###, I'm going to go drink a Carona and eat a Burrito just for your Hispanic heritage. How about that?"
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sheerterror
Footballguy
I can't figure this one out either. Logic says Lesnar, but I just don't know what to expect out of Cain. He's been improving in every fight he's been in, and has crisp enough boxing that I think he may be able to hit Lesnar some. Just a matter of how much he might be able to rock Lesnar before Lesnar shoots in for the takedown. One thing for certain is that it seems we will not see Cain punch himself out the way Carwin did.
I'm personally sitting on Lesnar -135 risking about 5u, which I hit when the line opened, anticipating a substantial line move. I grabbed a little back on Cain +150 at my local, and will likely look to buy out completely come fight time. I think I'll be on the sidelines completely for this one.
I'm personally sitting on Lesnar -135 risking about 5u, which I hit when the line opened, anticipating a substantial line move. I grabbed a little back on Cain +150 at my local, and will likely look to buy out completely come fight time. I think I'll be on the sidelines completely for this one.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
I like Cain in this fight.
Neither guy is a good striker, but I think Cain is much, much better than Brock after watching Brock vs Carwin. Cain is also a better wrestler than Carwin so I don't think Brock will be able to just shoot for a double leg from across the cage. Brock had trouble getting Couture down @ 220 lbs. I know Couture, in his prime, was a much better wrestler than Cain, but Couture was far from his prime and Cain will be 20-25 lbs heavier than Couture was.
Brock as able to take down Herring and Mir at will, but vs wrestlers in Carwin and Couture he couldn't shoot a double vs them. I don't think Brock's striking is developed enough to pose enough of a threat to allow him to get close enough to shoot a double on Cain. In fact, I really expect Cain to be able to put Brock on his back and finish the fight there. Cain should be able put hands on Lesnar standing and if Lesnar starts flinching and closing his eyes, Cain should be able to shoot on him. Cain has a great knack for ground and pound and Lesnar's guard game is so poor that he's dead if he's on his back.
Although Cain is not a DI champ like Lesnar, he may have been a better college wrestlers as the era Cain wrestled in was the golden age of NCAA HW wrestling.
Also, if you bet this fight find a site that offers lines based on stoppage vs decision. Bodog has Cain @ +120, +250 to finish. Lesnar -150, +130 to finish. No way does this go to 5 full rounds.
Neither guy is a good striker, but I think Cain is much, much better than Brock after watching Brock vs Carwin. Cain is also a better wrestler than Carwin so I don't think Brock will be able to just shoot for a double leg from across the cage. Brock had trouble getting Couture down @ 220 lbs. I know Couture, in his prime, was a much better wrestler than Cain, but Couture was far from his prime and Cain will be 20-25 lbs heavier than Couture was.
Brock as able to take down Herring and Mir at will, but vs wrestlers in Carwin and Couture he couldn't shoot a double vs them. I don't think Brock's striking is developed enough to pose enough of a threat to allow him to get close enough to shoot a double on Cain. In fact, I really expect Cain to be able to put Brock on his back and finish the fight there. Cain should be able put hands on Lesnar standing and if Lesnar starts flinching and closing his eyes, Cain should be able to shoot on him. Cain has a great knack for ground and pound and Lesnar's guard game is so poor that he's dead if he's on his back.
Although Cain is not a DI champ like Lesnar, he may have been a better college wrestlers as the era Cain wrestled in was the golden age of NCAA HW wrestling.
Also, if you bet this fight find a site that offers lines based on stoppage vs decision. Bodog has Cain @ +120, +250 to finish. Lesnar -150, +130 to finish. No way does this go to 5 full rounds.
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Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
I think people backing Velasquez are giving too much weight to Lesnar's reaction to Carwin's punches. Carwin has so much more power than Velasquez that it's ridiculous. Sure, Velasquez dropped Nogueira, but we can all admit that Nogueira is a shell of what he used to be. After the Rothwell fight, everyone laughed at Velasquez's pillow hands. Carwin, on the other hand, has a long list of flash knockouts and badly hurt Mir with a few choppy punches from the clinch. Lesnar retreating from that man really has no bearing on this fight.
For the life of me, I do not envision Velasquez being able to hold Lesnar down for long, and he sure won't pound him out. Carwin had him against the catch, but Lesnar was still able to get up before the end of the first round. Velasquez did take Kongo down repeatedly and was able to control him fairly easily. However, Kongo's ground game has to be the worst in the division, yet Velasquez wasn't able to finish him. Velasquez got a very quick stoppage against Rothwell, but he'll have to inflict far more damage against Lesnar to end this fight. I just don't see it happening.
For the life of me, I do not envision Velasquez being able to hold Lesnar down for long, and he sure won't pound him out. Carwin had him against the catch, but Lesnar was still able to get up before the end of the first round. Velasquez did take Kongo down repeatedly and was able to control him fairly easily. However, Kongo's ground game has to be the worst in the division, yet Velasquez wasn't able to finish him. Velasquez got a very quick stoppage against Rothwell, but he'll have to inflict far more damage against Lesnar to end this fight. I just don't see it happening.
hooter311
Footballguy
Who exactly is Dongi Yang and why is he a favorite over Camozzi?
From what little I can find to read and watch on Yang, he is a sloppy knockout artist. Camozzi has a good skill set and should be able to completely dominate this on the mat.
Making a small play on Camozzi while he is still a dog.
From what little I can find to read and watch on Yang, he is a sloppy knockout artist. Camozzi has a good skill set and should be able to completely dominate this on the mat.
Making a small play on Camozzi while he is still a dog.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
It wasn't just that Lesnar turned and ran from Carwin, it was his horrid technique. While Cain may lack the power to straight drop Lesnar like Carwin, he should be able to put hands on Lesnar in volume, or enough to get close enough to shoot on Lesnar. Cain has much better ground and pound than Carwin. Again, he lacks the power, but Cain moves really well on the ground, strikes while moving, and has much better control. Cain should be able to control Brock pretty well if Cain is on top.If Cain can stop Brock's double leg, which I think he can, Brock won't have any tools to threaten Cain outside of a wild right hand landing.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
No. 16
Footballguy
Fair points if Cain can take Lesnar to the ground. IIRC, the only reason Carwin was able to mount Lesnar was because he was able to KO/weaken him with punches from the stand up. If you concede that Cain lacks the power of Carwin to daze/weaken Lesnar in stand up, how is Cain supposed to take Lesnar down when Lesnar is arguably a superior wrestler and without a doubt a superior athlete/physical specimen?
Maik Jeaunz
Footballguy
I'm actually not a big fan of Cain, but I hope he beats Lesnar up. I just don't like this notion that Lesnar is the "baddest man on the planet". he's a fraud.
I actually think Dos Santos is better than Cain, so he should be next in line after this weekend's fight.
I actually think Dos Santos is better than Cain, so he should be next in line after this weekend's fight.
No. 16
Footballguy
How is he a fraud? Just wondering. I really don't like Cain that much either. Waaaaay too much "Viva La Raza!" I don't think Cain realizes the late great Eddie Guerrero was a caricature.
hooter311
Footballguy
I used to share your sentiments. I lost a good chunk when he beat Carwin. The more I see, the more I believe. His unorthodox training style ala Rocky has really worked for him. I watched the Carwin fight again recently and he really wasn't in too much trouble and Carwin wasn't landing anything significant when he had him on the ground against the cage. The shots he took from Carwin standing really leave me to believe that he is superhuman until someone proves otherwise. Of course Cain could be that guy, but from his track record, I just don't see it.
Al_Czervik
Footballguy
Brock was getting his face pounded in. Shane couldn't finish him but was fully mounted and was raining bombs (albeit partially blocked).However, I don't see Cain mounting and throwing the same power punches Carwin did. Once Brock gets a guy up against the cage, it's pretty much over.
Clorox
Footballguy
I got Lesnar wins inside distance +125...is that what you mean?
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Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
yes
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Whether Lesnar is a better wrestler than Cain is certainly debatable, but I think that for this fight Cain + threat of strikes make him a better wrestler than Brock + the threat of strikes. Cain lacks the striking power of Carwin, certainly, but Cain doesn't lack the power to stun or daze Lesnar enough to get him to the ground.Just about everyone at every other weight class must strike to set up takedowns, with two HW that can wrestle, I think this will be the case. Look at the Edgar-Penn rematch, Edgar was able to take Penn down because his striking allowed him to get into positions to go for takedowns than weren't available for most of Penn's opponents. This is why Edgar has the most success taking down Penn (aside from GSP) although Edgar is not the best pure wrestler Penn faced.
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No. 16
Footballguy
I don't see how you can believe Cain has KO power. Cain couldn't even take out Congo after pummeling the whole fight so I don't think he has the power to dazed/stud Lesnar, if Lesnar was able to take Carwin's blows. Brock + more strength, quickness, and explosiveness - striking gives Lesnar a better chance of taking the fight to the ground then Cain + better striking.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Local dropped Lesnar down to -125 for a few minutes, hit it for 3u. I don't see a situation where I'll be able to arb out, but I couldn't pass up on this value.
modogg
Footballguy
Can't blame you. I am at the point where i am over-analyzing this bet, but i may bank on Lesnar to save me some face from the Fightin' Phils turn for the worse here in the playoffs. I just really can't see how Cain wins this (famous last words right before a big loss
).
My first time watching Ben Askren. Dude is relentless.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I wasn't really believing the hype until I saw him completely dominate Dan Hornbuckle. Askren is no joke.
He could stand to work on the GnP though. Makes Chael Sonnen look brutal.
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Cain Velasquez hits harder than any boxer tested on Sports Science.
http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/news/27466...Sports-Science/
http://www.mixedmartialarts.com/news/27466...Sports-Science/
hooter311
Footballguy
AhrnCityPahnder said:
I lost a lot of money on Hornbuckle that night. It was hot in Missouri and outdoors that night which I think played to Askren's advantage, but he dominated that fight. If he can get the work in on his striking he is going to be a force. He is arguably the most accomplished college wrestler to now be dedicated to MMA.