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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)

Bobcat10 said:
Caught the very end of Cody/Thug. Sounds like Cody was doing well for the most part of two rounds?What's up with this Barry line moving big? Is word out he's not 100%?
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he's coming back from a broken hand and a broken foot, but from what i have seen you have to always take pre-fight injury news with a grain of salt. I really dounbt Barry would go around bragging he isn't 100%, and good chance his camp is saying these things to lull the opponent into a feeling of safetyAnd why the hell is Rogan all over Wiman's nuts?? I know Rogan and Goldy can be bias at different times, but this fight is one of the more insane I have heard in awhile, Rogan is doing all he can to make Wiman sound lke a legit contendor?
 
modogg said:
And why the hell is Rogan all over Wiman's nuts?? I know Rogan and Goldy can be bias at different times, but this fight is one of the more insane I have heard in awhile, Rogan is doing all he can to make Wiman sound lke a legit contendor?
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:thumbdown: Maybe Rogan is right, but i still don't see any reason to have such a hard-on for Wiman. he certainly looks better in this fight, but I think if the UFC gives him a step-up in competition he will not do so well.
 
Pat barry is a tough guy to figure out sometimes, i see myself losing more money on him as his career goes. He just seems to relax too much in the octagon sometimes, and you can see fights getting taken from him. It seems like he could have destroyed Beltran at any point with those leg kicks, but he just doesn't go in for the kill. i still like him, and I think he will keep winning, but he is far form a lock in most of the fights i can see him get in going forward

 
Nice job of Goldy there throwing in promo for the MGM Grand while the ventriliquist sang the Star Spangled Banner.

 
Not sure I agree with Rogan there. But Roop was getting his ### kicked.

edit: well that was a nice stumble across the ring lol..

 
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Bobcat10 said:
modogg said:
i've gone in pretty heavy on Mitrione at this point, little nervous..... :unsure:
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:bag:Big one from Melvin too...
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Yeah, Melvin more then made up for Cole Miller's loss, so all in all a good night for the accounts. Lord knows they needed it.and i'm real curious who they give Melvin next, and if he is ready for it. I wish i put more on him because i liked him in this spot, and he definitely will get a jump in competition for his next one. One of the best things with Melvin is that he seems to have grown up, he was a real goofball before.ETA: On a side note, I thought it was a little funny when Beltran got poked in the eye and you could hear him yell in pain. As the Dr. checks him out, it sounded like the entire arena was chanting for him to suck it up. I would have to think there was zero chance he would not come back i the fight, you could even see it in his face as everyone wants him to continue, he had to no matter if he could see or not
 
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Some interesting stats from Fight Metric here:

http://fightmetric.com/ufcrecords.html

Break down all sorts of interesting stuff, most average time in the octagon, least avg. amt. of time, etc. Some interesting one's in here too, I was surprised to see Rich Franklin had the 3rd most Knockdowns landed, behind Chuck and Anderson Silva. Also surprised to see GSP is 2nd for Strikes absorbed per minute.

 
modogg said:
Some interesting stats from Fight Metric here:

http://fightmetric.com/ufcrecords.html

Break down all sorts of interesting stuff, most average time in the octagon, least avg. amt. of time, etc. Some interesting one's in here too, I was surprised to see Rich Franklin had the 3rd most Knockdowns landed, behind Chuck and Anderson Silva. Also surprised to see GSP is 2nd for Strikes absorbed per minute.
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lol at Drew McFedries.And why does the GSP stat surprise you? Dude almost never gets hit

 
Fightmetric is a cool resource, but some of its numbers are misleading. I contemplated making an MMA "simulator" to beat fight odds and started recording some "stats" to input as data. Maybe I just suck at recording data, but I disagreed with their numbers and how they classified things frequently.

 
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Man oh man, am I hyped for Jones vs Bader. Winner will hold the title in the next few years. I'm anxious to see if Bones is everything he is hyped which he has certainly looked so far.

 
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scoobus said:
modogg said:
Some interesting stats from Fight Metric here:

http://fightmetric.com/ufcrecords.html

Break down all sorts of interesting stuff, most average time in the octagon, least avg. amt. of time, etc. Some interesting one's in here too, I was surprised to see Rich Franklin had the 3rd most Knockdowns landed, behind Chuck and Anderson Silva. Also surprised to see GSP is 2nd for Strikes absorbed per minute.
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lol at Drew McFedries.And why does the GSP stat surprise you? Dude almost never gets hit
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:thumbup: Funny, i completely misread the the strikes absorbed per minute as he was the guy who got hit the 2nd most in the UFC
 
Just saw this:

Jon Jones has the biggest reach in the UFC. Even bigger than Stefan Struve and the gorilla Lesnar.

Jon Jones 84.5 in.

Stefan Struve: 84 in.

Brock Lesnar: 81 in.

Ryan Bader: 74 in.

That really doesn't seem fair.

 
Clayton Gray said:
Just saw this:

Jon Jones has the biggest reach in the UFC. Even bigger than Stefan Struve and the gorilla Lesnar.

Jon Jones 84.5 in.

Stefan Struve: 84 in.

Brock Lesnar: 81 in.

Ryan Bader: 74 in.

That really doesn't seem fair.
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i saw Bader talking about this in an interview, it is insane he has more of a reach then Struve. i don't know how that is even possible with Struve having 6 or 7 inches of height on him. And i agree with you guys that Jones should take this, but the betting line on this fight is insane. No way it should favor Jones as much as it is. i am not a Bader fan, but i can't remember seeing him in trouble in any of his fights. with it being a 3 round fight, i think it is possible that Bader can lay and pray for at least one round. it is a fight i am definitely interested in watching. the card itself is a very good one, does anybody think Belfort has a chance against Silva? i think there are a couple of good shows coming up, i'm not a Fedor nut-hugger, but loking forward to seeing his fight against Big Foot

 
modogg said:
Clayton Gray said:
Just saw this:

Jon Jones has the biggest reach in the UFC. Even bigger than Stefan Struve and the gorilla Lesnar.

Jon Jones 84.5 in.

Stefan Struve: 84 in.

Brock Lesnar: 81 in.

Ryan Bader: 74 in.

That really doesn't seem fair.
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i saw Bader talking about this in an interview, it is insane he has more of a reach then Struve. i don't know how that is even possible with Struve having 6 or 7 inches of height on him. And i agree with you guys that Jones should take this, but the betting line on this fight is insane. No way it should favor Jones as much as it is. i am not a Bader fan, but i can't remember seeing him in trouble in any of his fights. with it being a 3 round fight, i think it is possible that Bader can lay and pray for at least one round. it is a fight i am definitely interested in watching. the card itself is a very good one, does anybody think Belfort has a chance against Silva? i think there are a couple of good shows coming up, i'm not a Fedor nut-hugger, but loking forward to seeing his fight against Big Foot
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Bader/Jones is such an incredible fight. Here's what I said a few months back, replying to a similar concern from Mr. Clavin regarding the booking. Still holds true.
Abrantes said:
Yeah, they're probably the two hottest light heavyweight prospects in MMA right now. Hell, two of the best prospects in any division, for that matter. Can't see that fight happening this soon, but it would sure be interesting. Both are incredible wrestlers and pack huge power in their shots. Both have past cardio issues, though Jones' fights haven't lasted enough recently to see if he's improved in that area. Bader's striking and general game seems tighter and more technically sound, but Jones makes up for it with incredible power and explosiveness, as well as an unreal, cartoon-character-like reach advantage.

Curious to see if (when) Jones moves up to heavyweight, 'cause he's growing quickly, which makes sense at that age, and he has the frame to pack on a lot more weight.
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Modogg, I remember some negative moments from Bader's past UFC fights, though he's always had enough in him to overcome them. Gassed terribly against Carmelo Marrero after a beautiful first round, and unless I'm remembering it wrong, had bad spots against Jardine and Lil' Nog as well. The Jardine fight was particularly tight before the KO. That said, I agree that he's a tough *******, and the line is wild.Still backing "Bones" Jones. Hope he's learned how to better exploit that reach advantage, though.

 
I think the line too far in Jones' favor. Not saying I think Bader is going to win, but he's more likely than the odds say he is. Jones has far too many question marks on him to give such good odds.

 
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I like the odds on this one, almost feel like hitting it pretty good, but am going light for now:

Abe Wagner +425 over Tim Sylvia

Atr this point, I don't know what Sylvia's motivation is. he says he wants back in the big leagues, but i look and see he weighed in at 311 for this fight. Can anyone talk me out of putting anymore on this one? I have not followed Abe Wagner since his time on TUF, but at least it looks like he won his last fight in November. I now the Maine-iac beat Paul Buentello a litle bit ago, and has been doing alright as of late, but i have to think Abe would look at this as his chance to get back in the swing of things, and get some momentum with his career.

Actually, looking at what Abe has done is not too impressive at all. But, with these odds I think a small bet is certainly warranted. For another longshot this weekend, I may end up taking Scott Carson over Herschel Walker. Having Herschel at -350 just seems like there is no justification for that, so taking Carter at +275 seems like a reasonable play.

Heck, and my lottery ticket play for the weekend:

1/29/2011 11:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Robbie Lawler* +190 vs Ronaldo Souza

1/29/2011 10:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Scott Carson* +260 vs Herschel Walker

1/28/2011 11:00 PM MMA Fighting 3101 Abe Wagner* +425 vs Tim Sylvia

Risking $15.00 To Win $807.15 * FREE PLAY

 
modogg said:
I like the odds on this one, almost feel like hitting it pretty good, but am going light for now:

Abe Wagner +425 over Tim Sylvia

Atr this point, I don't know what Sylvia's motivation is. he says he wants back in the big leagues, but i look and see he weighed in at 311 for this fight. Can anyone talk me out of putting anymore on this one? I have not followed Abe Wagner since his time on TUF, but at least it looks like he won his last fight in November. I now the Maine-iac beat Paul Buentello a litle bit ago, and has been doing alright as of late, but i have to think Abe would look at this as his chance to get back in the swing of things, and get some momentum with his career.

Actually, looking at what Abe has done is not too impressive at all. But, with these odds I think a small bet is certainly warranted. For another longshot this weekend, I may end up taking Scott Carson over Herschel Walker. Having Herschel at -350 just seems like there is no justification for that, so taking Carter at +275 seems like a reasonable play.

Heck, and my lottery ticket play for the weekend:

1/29/2011 11:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2201 Robbie Lawler* +190 vs Ronaldo Souza

1/29/2011 10:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 2301 Scott Carson* +260 vs Herschel Walker

1/28/2011 11:00 PM MMA Fighting 3101 Abe Wagner* +425 vs Tim Sylvia

Risking $15.00 To Win $807.15 * FREE PLAY
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Aside from the fact that I'm pretty sure SF is going to give Herschel another extremely winnable fight, I like those bets. When I first saw Lawler vs Jacare, I instantly thought Jacare should win this. Once I thought more about it, I really like Lawler in this fight. Jacare's wrestling is really good for a BJJ fighter, but it is not lights out. Jacare' tends to run out of gas in the 2nd round of most fights, and he doesn't put himself in the best position to win fights often. I also the drug testing for fights in the US effects him as well.

As for Wagner vs Sylvia, Abe seems to be a can, but Sylvia may be one as well at this point of his career as well. At over 4:1, I'd certainly roll the dice that he is.

 
modogg said:
Clayton Gray said:
Just saw this:

Jon Jones has the biggest reach in the UFC. Even bigger than Stefan Struve and the gorilla Lesnar.

Jon Jones 84.5 in.

Stefan Struve: 84 in.

Brock Lesnar: 81 in.

Ryan Bader: 74 in.

That really doesn't seem fair.
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i saw Bader talking about this in an interview, it is insane he has more of a reach then Struve. i don't know how that is even possible with Struve having 6 or 7 inches of height on him. And i agree with you guys that Jones should take this, but the betting line on this fight is insane. No way it should favor Jones as much as it is. i am not a Bader fan, but i can't remember seeing him in trouble in any of his fights. with it being a 3 round fight, i think it is possible that Bader can lay and pray for at least one round. it is a fight i am definitely interested in watching. the card itself is a very good one, does anybody think Belfort has a chance against Silva? i think there are a couple of good shows coming up, i'm not a Fedor nut-hugger, but loking forward to seeing his fight against Big Foot
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I'd say Belfort has one of the best chances out of anyone (although it is still just a punchers chance). Silva hasn't fought anyone who can hit as hard and as fast as Belfort and whether it was because of the rib or not, Sonnen's slow ### got to Silva's chin a couple times on the feet. Not saying I think Belfort will win, but out of Silva's previous UFC fights (Maia, Griffin, Cote, Irvin, Hendo, Cote etc..) none have had both speed and power... and really looking at it now, he hasn't fought anyone who I'd say had fast hands. Hendo, Irvin and Cote have power but they are slow.
 
modogg said:
Pat barry is a tough guy to figure out sometimes, i see myself losing more money on him as his career goes. He just seems to relax too much in the octagon sometimes, and you can see fights getting taken from him. It seems like he could have destroyed Beltran at any point with those leg kicks, but he just doesn't go in for the kill. i still like him, and I think he will keep winning, but he is far form a lock in most of the fights i can see him get in going forward
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I'm done with him. I had a lot of bad things to say about him after the CroCop fight, particularly about his heart/fighting instincts/fire. But kind of backed off that when I found out he broke his foot and hand in the fight... but after this Mexecutioner crap, I'm done. The last straw was in the final few seconds of the fight when he started punching Beltran's leg after he went down. That is just utterly stupid at that point in the fight and kind of a #### move on top of that. I'll pretty much be rooting for anybody against him going forward.
hooter311 said:
Man oh man, am I hyped for Jones vs Bader. Winner will hold the title in the next few years. I'm anxious to see if Bones is everything he is hyped which he has certainly looked so far.
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This is happening earlier in their careers than I hoped for. I was thinking Bader would get the title and then Jones would dethrone him. Franklin/Griffen is gonna be an exciting match but Bones/Bader should have the highest billing besides the title fight.
 
Cliff Clavin said:
modogg said:
Clayton Gray said:
Just saw this:

Jon Jones has the biggest reach in the UFC. Even bigger than Stefan Struve and the gorilla Lesnar.

Jon Jones 84.5 in.

Stefan Struve: 84 in.

Brock Lesnar: 81 in.

Ryan Bader: 74 in.

That really doesn't seem fair.
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i saw Bader talking about this in an interview, it is insane he has more of a reach then Struve. i don't know how that is even possible with Struve having 6 or 7 inches of height on him. And i agree with you guys that Jones should take this, but the betting line on this fight is insane. No way it should favor Jones as much as it is. i am not a Bader fan, but i can't remember seeing him in trouble in any of his fights. with it being a 3 round fight, i think it is possible that Bader can lay and pray for at least one round. it is a fight i am definitely interested in watching. the card itself is a very good one, does anybody think Belfort has a chance against Silva? i think there are a couple of good shows coming up, i'm not a Fedor nut-hugger, but loking forward to seeing his fight against Big Foot
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I'd say Belfort has one of the best chances out of anyone (although it is still just a punchers chance). Silva hasn't fought anyone who can hit as hard and as fast as Belfort and whether it was because of the rib or not, Sonnen's slow ### got to Silva's chin a couple times on the feet. Not saying I think Belfort will win, but out of Silva's previous UFC fights (Maia, Griffin, Cote, Irvin, Hendo, Cote etc..) none have had both speed and power... and really looking at it now, he hasn't fought anyone who I'd say had fast hands. Hendo, Irvin and Cote have power but they are slow.
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I think -250 is a really good line for Anderson. Sonnen has success against Anderson by rushing him early and making Silva uncomfortable so perhaps Vitor can do the same. However, everyone else seems to be much more hesitant than to rush at the best striker in MMA. It is really foolish, but seemingly everyone allows Silva to take his time, gauge his opponent's timing and rhythm and then attack. Vitor is really good at surprising his opponents with his speed and once hurt he's one of the best finishers in MMA, but the parlay of Vitor actually maximizing his chances by being extremely aggressive early AND putting Anderson away is fairly remote.

If Vitor doesn't put Anderson away early or put a massive beating on him, the fight is pretty much Anderson's to win however he wants to. I cannot imagine Vitor having the stamina to push the pace (i.e. make it a brawl) vs Anderson like Sonnen did. If the pace slows down, Anderson is light years ahead of Vitor in terms of striking.

My guess is that Vitor's camp tries to emulate Sonnen's gameplan. Vitor's wrestling and top game are pretty good (former ADCC champ) but I think he lacks the stamina and ability to remained focused 25 minutes to do so.

The cumulative factors of Vitor's flakiness, Anderson's chin, and stamina lead me to believe that Anderson should win easily.

 
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I'd make a play on Belfort if his last fight wasn't in September of 2009. That's just too long ago to give me any real confidence that he can beat Anderson Silva.

I easily like Jones over Bader, but it seems like Bader has the ability to put Jones in uncomfortable positions. Since we have no idea how Jones will react to that, I have a hard time investing at the current odds.

Modogg, good luck on your lottery ticket.

 
:rolleyes: Glad I could rely on Tim "Fatty" Sylvia. 32 seconds in the 1st round!! Have to love knucklehead Trigg before the fight too talking about how the odds on Sylvia were good odds.

1 down, 2 to go. ;)

ETA: To be honest, that one felt too easy. On one hand, you have to feel for Tim's fall from grace, but on the other, it seems somewhat obvious the guy doesn't care too much. I think he feels that the game has passed him by at this point, and he will collect any paycheck he can. i also think that even if Big Tim survived past the 1st 32 seconds, he would have been gassed 1 or 2 minutes into it

 
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AhrnCityPahnder said:
Any shot of Jacare getting KO'd tonight?I expect this Diaz fight to be ugly. Cyborg is about to get housed.
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I think so. I have not been that impressed with Jacare's last 4 or 5 fights, but i am not sure that Robbie is the one to change Jacare's winning ways. We pretty much know what Robbie will do, so there isn't much chance of Robbie trying a lot of strategy. i'm guessing he thinks he has to go for the KO to win
 
I'm on Diaz tonight. Hate laying long odds but I got him at -350 and I don't think there's anything Cyborg can to win other than land a miracle haymaker. Fortunately, Diaz has one of the best chins in the sport.

Wanted to play Gracie but the line got away from me. I think he'll win, but at this point the value is probably on Prangley with his skillset.

 
sheerterror said:
I'm on Diaz tonight. Hate laying long odds but I got him at -350 and I don't think there's anything Cyborg can to win other than land a miracle haymaker. Fortunately, Diaz has one of the best chins in the sport. Wanted to play Gracie but the line got away from me. I think he'll win, but at this point the value is probably on Prangley with his skillset.
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congrats at getting him at -350. i think Diaz is the best play too, but the line is out of hand at this point
 
Voice Of Reason said:
only 1 Lawler KO from being really mad modogg
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Well, i got some nice cash on each individually, and I think i'm already in good shape with Abe Wagner from last night, but this may be the last time I bet on some guy who has had one fight in 9 years (didn't know that until after i bet :kicksrock: ).And the Strikeforce commentating almost makes it impossible to watch these shows. Sure, Herschel is in impressive shape, but they go WAAAYY over the top.
 
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And yikes, Big John has let himself go a bit

and this crowd is real rough too. They love to boo, 20 seconds into the fight and they are already booing

 
modogg said:
Voice Of Reason said:
only 1 Lawler KO from being really mad modogg
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Well, i got some nice cash on each individually, and I think i'm already in good shape with Abe Wagner from last night, but this may be the last time I bet on some guy who has had one fight in 9 years (didn't know that until after i bet :shrug: ).And the Strikeforce commentating almost makes it impossible to watch these shows. Sure, Herschel is in impressive shape, but they go WAAAYY over the top.
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it really is awful, that coupled with the non-reaction shots of the crowd after Lawler tapped made this fight seem really insignificant
 
Voice Of Reason said:
modogg said:
Voice Of Reason said:
only 1 Lawler KO from being really mad modogg
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Well, i got some nice cash on each individually, and I think i'm already in good shape with Abe Wagner from last night, but this may be the last time I bet on some guy who has had one fight in 9 years (didn't know that until after i bet :shrug: ).And the Strikeforce commentating almost makes it impossible to watch these shows. Sure, Herschel is in impressive shape, but they go WAAAYY over the top.
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it really is awful, that coupled with the non-reaction shots of the crowd after Lawler tapped made this fight seem really insignificant
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It looks like the future of Strikeforce will rest on the success of the HWY tournament. You would think a championship fight would carry some motivation. as for Jacare-Lawlor, still not that impressed with Jacare, and I think Robbie is beginning to show signs of wearing down from his MMA career. He isn't that old, but if he doesn't get that KO early, I don't see him winning too many more fights. But with that said, he didn't seem to land any big hits on Jacare, but seemed to rock Jacare a few times

 
You have to love the Diaz brothers. I wuold love to know who he was talking to in the crowd after his fight when the beer came flying into the cage. I am going to guess Mayhem Miller, anybody else know?

ETA: It sounds like it was some guys from AKA who were takling some stuff with the Cesar gracie Camp. I would love to see a Diaz-Koscheck fight, head coaches for the next season of TUF!!!

 
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Am I the only one that thought Diaz/Santos was really close (and even leaning Santos) before Diaz got the sub?

 
Clayton Gray said:
Am I the only one that thought Diaz/Santos was really close (and even leaning Santos) before Diaz got the sub?
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I think you could make a case that Cyborg was actually winning the fight. According the stats Showtime put up after the tapout, I believe Cyborg had landed a higher percentage of his strikes (punches) and was blowing him away with those vicious leg kicks. That said, Nick Diaz has a ridiculous motor and is tough as nails. I love watching him fight. :thumbup:
 
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slayer666 said:
Clayton Gray said:
Am I the only one that thought Diaz/Santos was really close (and even leaning Santos) before Diaz got the sub?
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I think you could make a case that Cyborg was actually winning the fight. According the stats Showtime put up after the tapout, I believe Cyborg had landed a higher percentage of his strikes (punches) and was blowing him away with those vicious leg kicks. That said, Nick Diaz has a ridiculous motor and is tough as nails. I love watching him fight. :boxing:
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I thought Diaz took the first round and Cyborg was winning the second until he got armbarred. Those were some brutal kicks - Diaz is a machine the way he walked through them and a couple of the bombs Santos hit him with up top. Always enjoy watching Nick fight, the guy's one of the most entertaining fighters out there.actually though, I thought the whole card was pretty entertaining, even the Herschel freakshow. Strikeforce doesn't have a lot of top level fighters outside of their HW division, but they put on some damn good shows, and you don't have to shell out 60 bucks for them either. Can't wait to see what happens with this tournament.
 
AhrnCityPahnder said:
Cyborg looked much better than I thought he would. It was a coin flip prior to that sub.
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Cesar Gracie talked about Cyborg before the fight, and pointed out that if Cyborg fought nmost of his career at 170, he would be considered one of the top guys. I am not positive on that, but he has looked better his last few fights.And thumbs down to Strikeforce production for continuing to try and get shots of the female Cyborg after he lost. One shot is what it is, but to keep trying to get shots of her crying just seemed a little bit much.
 
OK. I haven't seen anyone comment that Diaz was running away with the fight, but the commentators were acting like the dude was putting on a clinic out there. Just wanted to make sure I wasn't seeing things.

 
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