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Ultimate Survivor 2 league 7 (1 Viewer)

1.01 1. Marvin88

1.02 2. tdmills

1.03 3. by_the_sea_wannabe

1.04 4. Andy Hicks

1.05 5. radballs

1.06 6. Riffraff

1.07 7. QuizGuy66

1.08 8. Deranged Hermit

1.09 9. Nugget

1.10 10. Dowling

1.11 11. RustyFA2

1.12 12. yellowdog

 
I've PMd all the guys in the league that works best for me, but rather than do that I'm just going to mention this here to all of the above. If for any reason one of you would be willing to switch with me and draft in League 9 Saturday at 6:30 pm eastern, well that would be truly appreciated.

 
I've PMd all the guys in the league that works best for me, but rather than do that I'm just going to mention this here to all of the above. If for any reason one of you would be willing to switch with me and draft in League 9 Saturday at 6:30 pm eastern, well that would be truly appreciated.
CC,I wish I could help you out, but I'll be out of town with no access that night. Good luck getting a switch.
 
Checking in and ready to draft.

Very old e-mail was still set up in my FBG control panel. So, can't have MFL league site send me the password to log in. Awaiting return PM from Clayton.

 
I haven't drafted that well in eons. I ended up with three top-15 QBs, three top-7 kickers, three or four WR1s for their teams, the Bears backfield, Moreno, TD Lendale, etc. Not tooting my horn (well, I guess I am) but with the exception of missing out on Jared Cook in the last round (and settling for Todd Heap as my TE2; I think Cook is going to be top-10 or 15) I couldn't have done much better based on my strategy.

This is a league where QBs can be your flex and passing TDs are worth 6. From the 10 spot I went Brees, Palmer, Forte, Cassell which really, IMO, set the pace for the other teams scrambling for QBs. Brady QUinn went in round 4, for goodness sakes.

Good luck to all, and thanks for participating.

 
My Roster:

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Sage Rosenfels, Kellen Clemens

RB: Marion Barber, Willie Parker, Earnest Graham, Julius Jones, Chester Taylor

WR: Randy Moss, Eddie Royal, Laveranues Coles, Justin Gage, Mike Walker, Brian Robiskie

TE: Visanthe Shiancoe, Chase Coffman

PK: Joe Nedney, Josh Scobee

TD: New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders

The fact that Rodgers has a week 5 bye is pretty frightening to me.

The fact that I have 5 RBs that might combine for 0 TDs in weeks 1 through 5 saddens me.

Um...go defenses I guess!?!?

:goodposting:

-QG

 
Rate my team has a bug I think as it actually somehow likes my team better than Dowling's:

And here it is.

QB: Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer

RB: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Cedric Benson, LenDale White, Kevin Jones

WR: Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, Michael Jenkins, Steve Smith, Earl Bennett, Chaz Schilens, Mark Bradley

TE: Vernon Davis, Todd Heap

PK: Stephen Gostkowski, Mason Crosby, Jason Elam

TD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

I can't say that I agree with the assessment. Btw, the Steve Smith is the one with the Giants. I think he did pretty well.

-QG

 
Rate my team has a bug I think as it actually somehow likes my team better than Dowling's:

And here it is.

QB: Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer

RB: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Cedric Benson, LenDale White, Kevin Jones

WR: Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, Michael Jenkins, Steve Smith, Earl Bennett, Chaz Schilens, Mark Bradley

TE: Vernon Davis, Todd Heap

PK: Stephen Gostkowski, Mason Crosby, Jason Elam

TD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

I can't say that I agree with the assessment. Btw, the Steve Smith is the one with the Giants. I think he did pretty well.

-QG
Thanks. I missed on a couple of guys that I was after but all in all, if my WRs do what they are expected to do (Morgan, Smith, and Schilens primarily) I like my chances. Loved getting Moreno so late (6th round, IIRC) although I'm a bit weak at TE all things considered.
 
Rate my team has a bug I think as it actually somehow likes my team better than Dowling's:

And here it is.

QB: Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer

RB: Matt Forte, Knowshon Moreno, Cedric Benson, LenDale White, Kevin Jones

WR: Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, Michael Jenkins, Steve Smith, Earl Bennett, Chaz Schilens, Mark Bradley

TE: Vernon Davis, Todd Heap

PK: Stephen Gostkowski, Mason Crosby, Jason Elam

TD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

I can't say that I agree with the assessment. Btw, the Steve Smith is the one with the Giants. I think he did pretty well.

-QG
Thanks. I missed on a couple of guys that I was after but all in all, if my WRs do what they are expected to do (Morgan, Smith, and Schilens primarily) I like my chances. Loved getting Moreno so late (6th round, IIRC) although I'm a bit weak at TE all things considered.
I passed on Moreno which was a horrible mistake by me. It was one of those drafts where I kept letting a guy slide and ended up losing him. I felt so weird taking Moss #7 and that really got the ball rolling in the wrong direction for me.-QG

 
Was a fun draft.

QB Hasselbeck, Delhomme, McCown

Average, but when you have 16 QBs go in the first 3 rounds (27 in 5 rounds)...

RB Portis, Gore, Addai, Fargas

Can't complain here, none of them have a bye week during this phase of the competition.

WR White, Colston, Chambers, Avery/Robinson, Crayton/Austin, Dem Williams, Mi Clayton

I doubled up at the WR position to compensate for a lack of a quality #3 or #4 guy.

TE Gates, Fasano

Decent pairing.

PK Graham, Janikowski

Waited real late for a kicker. Decent guys for the distance scoring bonus.

DT Minnesota, Buffalo

Minny plays 4 crappy teams in the first 5 weeks. Lower opponent scoring is big in the contest.

Over-all, I like may chances. Not the greatest squad, but definitely not the worst.

 
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I haven't drafted that well in eons. I ended up with three top-15 QBs, three top-7 kickers, three or four WR1s for their teams, the Bears backfield, Moreno, TD Lendale, etc. Not tooting my horn (well, I guess I am) but with the exception of missing out on Jared Cook in the last round (and settling for Todd Heap as my TE2; I think Cook is going to be top-10 or 15) I couldn't have done much better based on my strategy.This is a league where QBs can be your flex and passing TDs are worth 6. From the 10 spot I went Brees, Palmer, Forte, Cassell which really, IMO, set the pace for the other teams scrambling for QBs. Brady QUinn went in round 4, for goodness sakes.Good luck to all, and thanks for participating.
The thing I liked about the scoring system and the league is that you have to think about how to manipulate the settings in DD. What looks like folly can be genius and what looks like genius could be folly. As you say, Quinn goes in the 4th rd. and TO and Steve Smith go in the 5th and 6th. I don't care what the scoring system is - that is WILD!!!
 
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I really like my team, but taking Welker over Moreno may well be the thing that breaks me this year. I really had to take a WR there in the 5th (I had 0 WR at the time, Welker has no bye week issues and we start 3 WR) and I thought Moreno had a better shot at dropping to my next pick.

 
I was really happy with my team.....I felt that I didn't get crushed into drafting below value in any round(relatively).

QB-Warner(4)/Leinart, Cutler(5)....felt that both of them will be great QB's and had to handcuff Warner(if anyone gets hurt on my team it could be him).

RB-AD(fell to me at 1.2), Jamal Lewis(will get GL carries and is the #1 for at least first 5 weeks), Tim Hightower(Wells is already hurt and has a shot to start the first half of the year), Donald Brown, and Jerious Norwood.

WR- Dwayne Bowe(I'm not believing this training camp second string stuff), Chad Ochocinco, Cotchery, Derrick Mason, Davone Bess, Mushin muhammad, Devin Thomas.

Dwayne Bowe and Chad Johnson are the #1 targets in passing offenses that will be trailing in more games than they lead. Every one of my WR's are #1's on their team besides Bess, Thomas, and Moose(who could be if the injury lingers for Smith....which I am counting on.

TE- Kellen Winslow and Greg Olsen.

Winslow doesn't have a bye week and Olsen is the #1 target in chicago/so is winslow with Bryant injured. Heck this could be my flex.

K-Rob Bironas and Rackers

D- Carolina, Atlanta, and Denver

Decided to go to more of a committie approach at the D. It allowed me to wrap up the other positions better and you never know with defenses IMO.

 
QB: Philip Rivers, Trent Edwards, Matthew Stafford

RB: Michael Turner, Kevin Smith, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Michael Bush, Bernard Scott

WR: Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant, Nate Washington, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin

TE: Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Martellus Bennett, Jared Cook

PK: Kris Brown, Adam Vinatieri

TD: San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals

I like it.

 
QB: Tony Romo, David Garrard

It's funny, I really don't like either QB too much, but the QB crunch kept coming and I was blessed to get two bona-fide NFL QBs with no bye week issues. I like these two much better than 3/4 of the league's QB corps, so yay me I guess.

RB: Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook, Chris Wells, Felix Jones, LeSean McCoy, Brandon Jackson, Tashard Choice

To say I'm concerned here is an understatement. I REALLY need either Wells or Felix to be the RB's I think they can be and do it quickly.

WR: Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Walter, Steve Breaston, Devery Henderson, Darrius Heyward-Bey

Very pleased with this group considering I didn't grab a WR until 5.8. Just missed out on Boldin by one pick, which really pissed me off.

TE: Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey

Obviously no complaints here.

PK: David Akers, Robbie Gould

Eh, could be worse. I like Akers a lot.

TD: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT was the 4th or 5th DEF off the board and I was estatic to get them there. As for the Pack, they play CIN, DET and StL early, so I might steal some points with one of those matchups.

 
QB: Philip Rivers, Trent Edwards, Matthew StaffordRB: Michael Turner, Kevin Smith, Marshawn Lynch, Larry Johnson, Michael Bush, Bernard ScottWR: Santonio Holmes, Antonio Bryant, Nate Washington, Percy Harvin, Jeremy MaclinTE: Zach Miller, Dustin Keller, Martellus Bennett, Jared CookPK: Kris Brown, Adam VinatieriTD: San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati BengalsI like it.
Major questionmark is WR......two rookies and Antonio Bryant just had surgery.Also with Lynch being suspended.But who knows with this league scoring.
 
QB: Tony Romo, David GarrardIt's funny, I really don't like either QB too much, but the QB crunch kept coming and I was blessed to get two bona-fide NFL QBs with no bye week issues. I like these two much better than 3/4 of the league's QB corps, so yay me I guess.RB: Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook, Chris Wells, Felix Jones, LeSean McCoy, Brandon Jackson, Tashard ChoiceTo say I'm concerned here is an understatement. I REALLY need either Wells or Felix to be the RB's I think they can be and do it quickly.WR: Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Walter, Steve Breaston, Devery Henderson, Darrius Heyward-BeyVery pleased with this group considering I didn't grab a WR until 5.8. Just missed out on Boldin by one pick, which really pissed me off.TE: Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy ShockeyObviously no complaints here.PK: David Akers, Robbie GouldEh, could be worse. I like Akers a lot.TD: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh SteelersPIT was the 4th or 5th DEF off the board and I was estatic to get them there. As for the Pack, they play CIN, DET and StL early, so I might steal some points with one of those matchups.
Your team would be sooooo much better if it was PPR....
 
QB: Tony Romo, David GarrardIt's funny, I really don't like either QB too much, but the QB crunch kept coming and I was blessed to get two bona-fide NFL QBs with no bye week issues. I like these two much better than 3/4 of the league's QB corps, so yay me I guess.RB: Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook, Chris Wells, Felix Jones, LeSean McCoy, Brandon Jackson, Tashard ChoiceTo say I'm concerned here is an understatement. I REALLY need either Wells or Felix to be the RB's I think they can be and do it quickly.WR: Wes Welker, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Walter, Steve Breaston, Devery Henderson, Darrius Heyward-BeyVery pleased with this group considering I didn't grab a WR until 5.8. Just missed out on Boldin by one pick, which really pissed me off.TE: Tony Gonzalez, Jeremy ShockeyObviously no complaints here.PK: David Akers, Robbie GouldEh, could be worse. I like Akers a lot.TD: Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh SteelersPIT was the 4th or 5th DEF off the board and I was estatic to get them there. As for the Pack, they play CIN, DET and StL early, so I might steal some points with one of those matchups.
Your team would be sooooo much better if it was PPR....
Old habits die hard, but I honestly didn't try to assemble it this way, it just happened. I keep going back to taking Welker over Moreno as my Shatterpoint in this draft. It could benefit me, it might not. I had Moreno in my que the whole time, but when the time came, I froze since I was worried about the start 3 WR roster requirements.
 
I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.

I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?

 
Just looked closely at the rate my team application. Oddly enough, it has Marvin88 and myself as the top two teams. In my case, I don't see it, but I remember liking Marvin's team a lot.

 
I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.

I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This. If I had two similar tiered players (Welker vs Boldin was an early one for me) I grabbed the guy without the bye week issue. I believe I took Slaton over Brees too because I didn't like Drew's early bye. Slaton was the last guy in my 2nd RB tier that didn't have the bye week problem.
 
I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This is why I think most people would have looked at my draft and thought "what the heck is he doing"? I weighted weeks 6-16 low, then week 1 quite high, week 2 a little higher, week 3 a little higher still, week 4 a little higher, and week 5 a little higher and heaviestly weighted. But even doing this I could not ignore value if it got too great (TO in the 5th and Steve Smith in the 6th). But I would not have grabbed a TO or a Smith AT value and especially not REACH for them. It made some sense, too, to grab guys who had dropped a little because of a BYE in week 4 or 5 to buffer positional weaknesses.
 
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I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This is why I think most people would have looked at my draft and thought "what the heck is he doing"? I weighted weeks 6-14 low, then week 1 quite high, week 2 a little higher, week 3 a little higher still, week 4 a little higher, and week 5 a little higher and heaviestly weighted. But even doing this I could not ignore value if it got too great (TO in the 5th and Steve Smith in the 6th). But I would not grab have grabeed a TO or a Smith AT value and especially not REACH for them. It made some sense, too, to grab guys who had drop a little because of a BYE in week 4 or 5 to buffer positional weknesses.
Why did you weigh 6-14 at all? Why not zero them out? They're 100% irrelevant to your draft.
 
I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This is why I think most people would have looked at my draft and thought "what the heck is he doing"? I weighted weeks 6-14 low, then week 1 quite high, week 2 a little higher, week 3 a little higher still, week 4 a little higher, and week 5 a little higher and heaviestly weighted. But even doing this I could not ignore value if it got too great (TO in the 5th and Steve Smith in the 6th). But I would not grab have grabeed a TO or a Smith AT value and especially not REACH for them. It made some sense, too, to grab guys who had drop a little because of a BYE in week 4 or 5 to buffer positional weknesses.
Why did you weigh 6-14 at all? Why not zero them out? They're 100% irrelevant to your draft.
It seemed to skew (at least to my liking) the rankings too much and push guys like Fitz and Smith too far down the list!! So I simply added a very minute weight to weeks 6-16.All that being said, there were two other owners who seemed to have their DD settings the same as mine.
 
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I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This is why I think most people would have looked at my draft and thought "what the heck is he doing"? I weighted weeks 6-14 low, then week 1 quite high, week 2 a little higher, week 3 a little higher still, week 4 a little higher, and week 5 a little higher and heaviestly weighted. But even doing this I could not ignore value if it got too great (TO in the 5th and Steve Smith in the 6th). But I would not grab have grabeed a TO or a Smith AT value and especially not REACH for them. It made some sense, too, to grab guys who had drop a little because of a BYE in week 4 or 5 to buffer positional weknesses.
Why did you weigh 6-14 at all? Why not zero them out? They're 100% irrelevant to your draft.
It seemed to skew (at least to my liking) the rankings too much and push guys like Fitz and Smith too far down the list!! So I simply aded a very minute weight to weeks 6-16.All that being said, there were two other owners who seemed to have their DD settings the same as mine.
OK. Did you try tweaking the weighting of Strength of Schedule instead? I see your point, it just occurs to me that if you put any value in SoS and weekly weights (I know many don't), it wouldn't make sense to give weeks that aren't used any consideration. Either way, I think you had a nice draft so whatever you did clearly worked. :mellow:
 
Interested to see who everyone thinks will be the 4 teams that will move on. I gave the league scoring system and odd nuances to two buddys and they thought Marvin, me, Andy and Colin did best (I did not include team names as I didn't want to skew their response). I don't agree with two of them (my team especially), but I'm interested to see what the masses think.

 
I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This is why I think most people would have looked at my draft and thought "what the heck is he doing"? I weighted weeks 6-14 low, then week 1 quite high, week 2 a little higher, week 3 a little higher still, week 4 a little higher, and week 5 a little higher and heaviestly weighted. But even doing this I could not ignore value if it got too great (TO in the 5th and Steve Smith in the 6th). But I would not grab have grabeed a TO or a Smith AT value and especially not REACH for them. It made some sense, too, to grab guys who had drop a little because of a BYE in week 4 or 5 to buffer positional weknesses.
Why did you weigh 6-14 at all? Why not zero them out? They're 100% irrelevant to your draft.
It seemed to skew (at least to my liking) the rankings too much and push guys like Fitz and Smith too far down the list!! So I simply aded a very minute weight to weeks 6-16.All that being said, there were two other owners who seemed to have their DD settings the same as mine.
OK. Did you try tweaking the weighting of Strength of Schedule instead? I see your point, it just occurs to me that if you put any value in SoS and weekly weights (I know many don't), it wouldn't make sense to give weeks that aren't used any consideration. Either way, I think you had a nice draft so whatever you did clearly worked. :lol:
It doesn't work. I'm not sure what the DD is doing (games v. season), but it's not taking into consideration that when Fitz is on a bye that you can pick up half his production using a WRBC. Obviously it's not in tune with best ball for a good reason. I also weighted weeks 6-17 in my setup. That moved fitz from something like WR15 to WR6 which made sense to me. I'm not a huge SOS fan, but I also didn't want to compound it by only using 5 weeks, especially when I was weighting those 5 weeks for our survivor format. Your scoring is different than my league (no ppr, QB yd/TD pts), but we still had the QB flex. Brady was #1 on my board, Manning #4. The QB run in this league was insane. Those on the front end of it got huge value in their drafts.
 
didn't weigh 6 to 17 at all.

If I could do it over again I'd probably weigh weeks 1 to 5 based on the percentage of team that were eliminated in each of them:

1/6 for week 1

1/10 for week 2

2/9 for week 3

1/7 for week 4

1/3 for week 5

This would work out to

17.3% for week 1

10.4% for week 2

23.0% for week 3

14.8% for week 4

34.5% for week 5

Basically in dealing with the week 4/week 5 folks, I tried to look for extreme differences in points-per-game in evaluating whether to take the guy with the bye. This factored into my Rodgers decision as I think he was clearly a better choice at that point compared to the other QBs available. I do think that I discounted the bye guys a little more heavily than I should have all in all.

The DD as I set it up had eliminations projected as follows:

Week 1: riffraff and tdmills

Week 2: radballs

Week 3: yellowdog and Hicks

Week 4: Nugget

Week 5: Dowling and RustyFA2

Leaving Marvin88, Deranged Hermit, by_the_sea_wannabe_birthday_boy, and me (I'd be 4th out of 6th in week 5).

Frankly I'm stunned. I still tend to think I boofed this.

-QG

 
Here's something that I thought was interesting from DD because it doesn't rely on weighting but simply the projections in DD:

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5Marvin88 114.1 115.6 [color= #FF0000]132.5 121.2 137.2[/color]tdmills 107.9 108.9 118.3 [color= #0000FF]86.4[/color] 102.1by_the_sea_wannabe 109.2 108.9 121.7 108.7 112.4Hicks 111.9 111.2 110.7 111.2 [color= #0000FF]93.0[/color]radballs 116.8 [color= #0000FF]105.9[/color] 111.2 111.3 112.2RiffRaff [color= #0000FF]101.8[/color] 114.7 [color= #0000FF]102.7[/color] 103.7 110.8QuizGuy66 116.9 [color= #FF0000]118.6[/color] 115.5 113.7 106.1Deranged Hermit 117.5 116.9 121.9 108.0 114.6Nugget 114.7 116.7 112.7 94.8 102.4Dowling 112.5 109.0 119.1 107.0 94.2RustyFA2 [color= #FF0000]121.4[/color] 115.3 111.2 95.4 100.5yellowdog 116.4 109.3 107.2 105.8 107.3 red = high score for the week

blue = low score for the week

If you go by this, then:

Eliminated week 1: tdmills, RiffRaff

Eliminated week 2: radballs

Eliminated week 3: Hicks, yellowdog

Eliminated week 4: Nugget

Eliminated week 5: Dowling, RustyFA2

Left: Deranged Hermit, QuizGuy66, Marvin88, by_the_sea_wannabe

Obviously, this is based on David Dodds projections so you may or may not agree with this.

 
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I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
I ignored it to a degree and used it as a tie-breaker some, but even though you lose 20% of a players production, there were some guys that were 20% (or more) better then the other options available. I got Michael Jenkins at WR70 or so, which seemed odd to me. True, he has a week 4 bye and Gonzo will take some touches, but a guy who has never finished outside the top60 and has improved every year and is a started on a team with a good quarterback should not be sliding past 3rd and 4th receivers, IMO.The biggest one was Steve Smith - he slid for a really long time. It seemed most people who wanted a top receiver got theres and other folks were content to wait. Smith was available for quite some time.
 
I think the 5-week thing is a huge factor in terms of the DD. If you use Weekly weights and/or Strength of schedule, the DD REALLY downgrades anyone with byes in weeks 4 or 5. Logically you can see why, as it technically removes 20% of their total production comparatively. On the other hand, I'm not sure you aren't doing yourself a disservice ignoring a lot of these players, because they could make the difference between excellence and mediocrity in the other four weeks.I'm curious, how did you all approach the bye week issue? Ignore it? Use it as a tiebreaker in evaluating tiers? Heavily weight it?
This is why I think most people would have looked at my draft and thought "what the heck is he doing"? I weighted weeks 6-14 low, then week 1 quite high, week 2 a little higher, week 3 a little higher still, week 4 a little higher, and week 5 a little higher and heaviestly weighted. But even doing this I could not ignore value if it got too great (TO in the 5th and Steve Smith in the 6th). But I would not grab have grabeed a TO or a Smith AT value and especially not REACH for them. It made some sense, too, to grab guys who had drop a little because of a BYE in week 4 or 5 to buffer positional weknesses.
Why did you weigh 6-14 at all? Why not zero them out? They're 100% irrelevant to your draft.
It seemed to skew (at least to my liking) the rankings too much and push guys like Fitz and Smith too far down the list!! So I simply aded a very minute weight to weeks 6-16.All that being said, there were two other owners who seemed to have their DD settings the same as mine.
My setup was similar. I lowered 6-17 a little. Then raised 2 & 4 some and then raised 1 &3&5 even more. I didn't draft 100% off that list but I felt it honed me on what the league settings were
 
We can guestimate this from many different angles....but those "projections" don't take into account injuries or other variables.

I think Marvin's team should be highly discounted with Steve Smith's injury. That shoulder injury looked worse/his reaction than they are leading on to believe(if you believe them). Lets say he does come back....will he be as effective?

But I guess i'm glad people are discounting my team.

Starting Warner, Cutler, AD, Jamal Lewis, Bowe, Ocho, Cotch, Olsen, Bironas, Carolina......is a great non-ppr lineup if you ask me.

 
We can guestimate this from many different angles....but those "projections" don't take into account injuries or other variables.I think Marvin's team should be highly discounted with Steve Smith's injury. That shoulder injury looked worse/his reaction than they are leading on to believe(if you believe them). Lets say he does come back....will he be as effective?But I guess i'm glad people are discounting my team.Starting Warner, Cutler, AD, Jamal Lewis, Bowe, Ocho, Cotch, Olsen, Bironas, Carolina......is a great non-ppr lineup if you ask me.
Could you be more specific when you say "other variables"? Because it almost sounds like you are arguing from a position that says projections are useless and "luck" and "variables" is how you went about your draft process. If you used DD for your draft, then you are by default saying that you believe in projections and not "variables". If you believe in DD, then why wouldn't you believe it's projections? As far as my team being discounted for Smith, I would say that DD has me scoring the most points in week 4 which is Smith's BYE week, so......but, again, this is if you personally believe in DD and projections which we haven't established yet.
 
We can guestimate this from many different angles....but those "projections" don't take into account injuries or other variables.I think Marvin's team should be highly discounted with Steve Smith's injury. That shoulder injury looked worse/his reaction than they are leading on to believe(if you believe them). Lets say he does come back....will he be as effective?But I guess i'm glad people are discounting my team.Starting Warner, Cutler, AD, Jamal Lewis, Bowe, Ocho, Cotch, Olsen, Bironas, Carolina......is a great non-ppr lineup if you ask me.
Could you be more specific when you say "other variables"? Because it almost sounds like you are arguing from a position that says projections are useless and "luck" and "variables" is how you went about your draft process. If you used DD for your draft, then you are by default saying that you believe in projections and not "variables". If you believe in DD, then why wouldn't you believe it's projections? As far as my team being discounted for Smith, I would say that DD has me scoring the most points in week 4 which is Smith's BYE week, so......but, again, this is if you personally believe in DD and projections which we haven't established yet.
I didn't use DD....I could've but figured since everyone else would....I would not. I instead went with a different thought process. I choose WR's or targets that were the best on their teams. Bowe, ocho cinco, cotchery, mason(especially with clayton and williams hurt right now), Muhammed(b/c I think Smith will miss time during the regular season), Olsen(we have seen the connection cutler/sheffler had and the one in TC with olsen/cutler), Winslow(with bryant out with surgery).So that must be different than what the projections say.I just went through and rated all the teams myself....and then listed bye week starters lost.Top team-Nugget, By the sea, hicks, myself, hermit, radballs, quiz, dowling, riffraff, rusty, marvin, yellow.But that doesn't take into account who will be dropped from each week etc, just overall for 5 weeks.
 
My team isn't ranked really high according to the DD, but here are a few reasons why I think it'll do a bit better than expected.

1. 0 positions with any byes. I really weighted heavily against players with any byes.

2. If Culpepper starts out as the season starter (even for the first few weeks), my weekly projections will go up tremendously. Dodds only has him in there for 36 season points. If he starts out before handing the reigns over to Stafford, I'm liking my QB scoring quite a bit. If not, Schaub and Campbell each week shouldn't be horrible.

3. 2 top 6 TEs. Maybe I shouldn't have taken Daniels so early with Clark already on board, but I think having both of these guys will be more substantial than just looking at each of their projected weekly totals and just taking the best one. Most likely, one of them will substantially exceed their weekly projection.

4. Defensive variability. I was one of 5 teams that took 3 Ds. I think this is a grossly underestimated scoring variance each week.

5. 5 RBs and 7 WRs is about the right mix at the respective positions. Granted, I need some things to fall right here to get scoring from some of these players. But, I think I'll be able to hang with others and not be the least scoring team week to week.

I wish I would have come out of this with a little bit more solid RB2, but I think I will be able to compete without being low score. QBs went fast and furious which changed things quite a bit. I was a little bummed that neither of my top 4 predraft picks lasted so I had to go with Steven Jackson ( AP, Manning, Brady, and MJD) at the 5 spot. We'll see how it pans out and thanks again for the invite. It was a blast.

 
My team isn't ranked really high according to the DD, but here are a few reasons why I think it'll do a bit better than expected.1. 0 positions with any byes. I really weighted heavily against players with any byes.2. If Culpepper starts out as the season starter (even for the first few weeks), my weekly projections will go up tremendously. Dodds only has him in there for 36 season points. If he starts out before handing the reigns over to Stafford, I'm liking my QB scoring quite a bit. If not, Schaub and Campbell each week shouldn't be horrible.3. 2 top 6 TEs. Maybe I shouldn't have taken Daniels so early with Clark already on board, but I think having both of these guys will be more substantial than just looking at each of their projected weekly totals and just taking the best one. Most likely, one of them will substantially exceed their weekly projection.4. Defensive variability. I was one of 5 teams that took 3 Ds. I think this is a grossly underestimated scoring variance each week.5. 5 RBs and 7 WRs is about the right mix at the respective positions. Granted, I need some things to fall right here to get scoring from some of these players. But, I think I'll be able to hang with others and not be the least scoring team week to week.I wish I would have come out of this with a little bit more solid RB2, but I think I will be able to compete without being low score. QBs went fast and furious which changed things quite a bit. I was a little bummed that neither of my top 4 predraft picks lasted so I had to go with Steven Jackson ( AP, Manning, Brady, and MJD) at the 5 spot. We'll see how it pans out and thanks again for the invite. It was a blast.
Yeh I weighed the Bye's into ranking you higher than the other guys tied with you. I think it gave you some guys with slightly lesser talent......but you get them for the duration of the league.
 

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