Unable to trade #1 pick + dont want LJ,SA,or LT (1 Viewer)

[PahtyTom]

If you have the #1 pick in a redraft and want Portis (or anyone outside the top 3) but can't work a deal pre-draft, is it better strategy to take the player you really want or to take a player like LJ or SA and try to trade them after the draft for the player you want plus more? On one hand you guarantee yourself getting the guy you want on your team but on the other hand, in doing so you may cost yourself some value that could have been gained by taking someone else and trying to trade post-draft (but it is not guaranteed that you can end up getting your guy). This poll is not about who is the best pick at #1 or who you would take if you had the # pick. It is about this specific scenario.

I apologize if this belongs in the assistant coaches forum. I think it is about fantasy football strategy so I put it here. Feel free to move it if need be. I am a newbie.

 

[radballs]

It all depends not only on your league rules but also on how often trading traditionally takes place in your league. Normally, I would say that if you can't make a predraft trade with the slot then you're either A) asking too much B) most of the guys in your league aren't comfortable with it or C) your rules prohibit it. If there's a chance that you can deal post draft, I would still take the guy who has more value in other people's eyes with the hopes that you can still get something done afterwards. However, if it's a no trade league following the draft, you have to take the guy you like the best.

 

[MLBrandow]

Take LJ and trade him if you're that adament about it.

If it is projections where you feel that Portis will outproduce the other 3, and you can't trade out, take Portis.

It would be odd for sure, but I have him at #2 this season, so I suppose if you were that deposed of LJ, I would take Portis.

That said, you're absolutely crazy to pass on LJ .

 

[ceo3west]

If you're league awards negative points for TD's, you should definitely pass on LJ

 

[Bri]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

 

[jurb26]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

 

[SSOG]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

It's not that easy.I mean, let's say the guy who picks 5th winds up with Portis. If that guy is really so interested in LJ, then why didn't he trade up to #1 overall when he had the chance? If they wouldn't trade for LJ before the draft, why would they trade for him afterwards?

I'd lower my asking price for the #1 overall. Just try to swap draft spots in the first 2 rounds- i.e. you give picks 1.01 and 2.12 for picks 1.04 and 2.09. If they don't take it, then don't trade- it's a sign of weakness to keep lowering your offer, and it'll make them more likely to try to take advantage of you in-season. If you've made some very generous trade offers and no one's shown any interest, then you've gotta grab your guy. Like I said- if they weren't willing to trade BEFORE the draft, then what makes you think they'll be willing to trade after?

 

[renesauz]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

It's not that easy.I mean, let's say the guy who picks 5th winds up with Portis. If that guy is really so interested in LJ, then why didn't he trade up to #1 overall when he had the chance? If they wouldn't trade for LJ before the draft, why would they trade for him afterwards?

I'd lower my asking price for the #1 overall. Just try to swap draft spots in the first 2 rounds- i.e. you give picks 1.01 and 2.12 for picks 1.04 and 2.09. If they don't take it, then don't trade- it's a sign of weakness to keep lowering your offer, and it'll make them more likely to try to take advantage of you in-season. If you've made some very generous trade offers and no one's shown any interest, then you've gotta grab your guy. Like I said- if they weren't willing to trade BEFORE the draft, then what makes you think they'll be willing to trade after?

I agree with this post completely. This is the route I'd recomend. If it doesn't work, take the guy you beleive in the strongest, even if most of us wouldn't agree with that choice.

 

[ruelvis]

i agree - if all else fails (although i'm not sure why someone in the 3 or 4 slot wouldnt want to swap 1st and 2nd rounders) screw everyone elses rankings and go with your guy. however there's someone here who wants to talk to you...

hi. its been so long since i've had 2 healthy seasons in a row. i will be injured by week 10 and clinton will be facing 10 guys at the line of scrimmage during your fantasy playoffs.

signed,

mark brunell

 

[Sinrman]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

It's not that easy.I mean, let's say the guy who picks 5th winds up with Portis. If that guy is really so interested in LJ, then why didn't he trade up to #1 overall when he had the chance? If they wouldn't trade for LJ before the draft, why would they trade for him afterwards?

I'd lower my asking price for the #1 overall. Just try to swap draft spots in the first 2 rounds- i.e. you give picks 1.01 and 2.12 for picks 1.04 and 2.09. If they don't take it, then don't trade- it's a sign of weakness to keep lowering your offer, and it'll make them more likely to try to take advantage of you in-season. If you've made some very generous trade offers and no one's shown any interest, then you've gotta grab your guy. Like I said- if they weren't willing to trade BEFORE the draft, then what makes you think they'll be willing to trade after?

 

[Bri]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

It's not that easy.I mean, let's say the guy who picks 5th winds up with Portis. If that guy is really so interested in LJ, then why didn't he trade up to #1 overall when he had the chance? If they wouldn't trade for LJ before the draft, why would they trade for him afterwards?

I'd lower my asking price for the #1 overall. Just try to swap draft spots in the first 2 rounds- i.e. you give picks 1.01 and 2.12 for picks 1.04 and 2.09. If they don't take it, then don't trade- it's a sign of weakness to keep lowering your offer, and it'll make them more likely to try to take advantage of you in-season. If you've made some very generous trade offers and no one's shown any interest, then you've gotta grab your guy. Like I said- if they weren't willing to trade BEFORE the draft, then what makes you think they'll be willing to trade after?

You just love to argue with me Yeah true if it's just Portis he wants then yeah that would be tough but it would(IMO) be easy to find a LJ for a #4-12 1st round RB trade.

LJ, Shaun, LT, and maybe Peyton can trade themselves in FF. They're that much better than their peers in many people's eyes.

Your 1.4-2.9 trade isn't fair IMO. I think this year you've gotta think of it like this- the top 3 and then your 4th player is like ranked #6. Younger Marshall Faulk used to create the same "problem" and the trade will bite you later on if you don't mentally create a gap/tier there

 

[JimmyD]

I can't see how you wouldn't be able to trade the #1 pick. If you are set on Portis or Tiki try something like Swap picks in say rd 1, 4 and 12 or something. Gets you your guy and a couple of picks of moving up. Nothing great, but better than nothing.

I wouldn't take LJ just to trade him to the Portis/Tiki owners. What if they want too much? What if they drafted other players you wouldn't want to combine with? If you can't do the trade before hand, go ahead and take the guy you want. If you are right the rest of the year it will be brought up how you knew Portis/Tiki was going to end up the best RB. If you are wrong, so what you took a chance on something.

 

[Capt Hook]

If you have the #1 pick in a redraft and want Portis (or anyone outside the top 3) but can't work a deal pre-draft, is it better strategy to take the player you really want or to take a player like LJ or SA and try to trade them after the draft for the player you want plus more? On one hand you guarantee yourself getting the guy you want on your team but on the other hand, in doing so you may cost yourself some value that could have been gained by taking someone else and trying to trade post-draft (but it is not guaranteed that you can end up getting your guy). This poll is not about who is the best pick at #1 or who you would take if you had the # pick. It is about this specific scenario.

I apologize if this belongs in the assistant coaches forum. I think it is about fantasy football strategy so I put it here. Feel free to move it if need be. I am a newbie.

If you don't want one of the top three this year I would suggest you take up knitting or maybe fantasy marathons

 

[rzrback77]

What were your offers that were turned down? Need data to better evaluate.

 

[Titans_fan]

In my opinion, if you have #1 overall and really want somebody take him. I agree LJ is the most likely #1, but say you trade down to #4 to get Portis, and the guy @ #3 takes him. What then? Not only did you not get the guy you wanted, but you passed on the #1 overall pick. Just another scenario to consider...

 

[Gandalf]

Trade afterwards without question. In fact, I'd ask the people with the 4-8 picks who they plan on taking after the big 3 are gone. Play up how happy you are to be able to get LJ, LT, or SA, which by the way, you should be. Then, disappear until the draft. After the draft see how much the guy who drafted Portis is willing to give up. And I'd only do the trade if it was Portis + a very good WR for LJ, LT or SA.

 

[Winston Wolfe]

If you have the #1 pick in a redraft and want Portis (or anyone outside the top 3) but can't work a deal pre-draft, is it better strategy to take the player you really want or to take a player like LJ or SA and try to trade them after the draft for the player you want plus more? On one hand you guarantee yourself getting the guy you want on your team but on the other hand, in doing so you may cost yourself some value that could have been gained by taking someone else and trying to trade post-draft (but it is not guaranteed that you can end up getting your guy). This poll is not about who is the best pick at #1 or who you would take if you had the # pick. It is about this specific scenario.

I apologize if this belongs in the assistant coaches forum. I think it is about fantasy football strategy so I put it here. Feel free to move it if need be. I am a newbie.

If you don't want one of the top three this year I would suggest you take up knitting or maybe fantasy marathons

So you wouldn't trade #1 overall for your choice of a RB in the 4-8 range and Fitzgerald or Holt?

 

[Captain Quinoa]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

It's not that easy.I mean, let's say the guy who picks 5th winds up with Portis. If that guy is really so interested in LJ, then why didn't he trade up to #1 overall when he had the chance? If they wouldn't trade for LJ before the draft, why would they trade for him afterwards?

I'd lower my asking price for the #1 overall. Just try to swap draft spots in the first 2 rounds- i.e. you give picks 1.01 and 2.12 for picks 1.04 and 2.09. If they don't take it, then don't trade- it's a sign of weakness to keep lowering your offer, and it'll make them more likely to try to take advantage of you in-season. If you've made some very generous trade offers and no one's shown any interest, then you've gotta grab your guy. Like I said- if they weren't willing to trade BEFORE the draft, then what makes you think they'll be willing to trade after?

Because they would be trading known commodities after the draft. Maybe you'll snag a sleeper WR that they wanted that you can package with LJ to get Portis and a stud WR. Maybe they aren't happy with who fell to them in the 2nd or 3rd and would feel more secure with one of the big 3. Maybe they ended up with a bye week problem at RB and trading would alleviate that. Maybe they just aren't comfortable trading draft picks and feel like they would get ripped off if they traded before the draft. There are many reasons why they might trade after the draft but not before.

 

[Dreamer]

Why are you down on LJ?

 

[WisWolvrns]

I can give you my reasons...

I believe his stats last year per partially inflated because he had fresh legs coming in 1/2 way through the season, playing against defenses that were 1/2 spent already.

Teams had to figure him out, which they have during off-season film sessions.

OL is another year older.

And last, but definitely not least, Herm Edwards... Has he ever coached a team which puts up a huge amount of points every game?

 

[CalBear]

If you really believe that Tiki or Portis will outscore the other three, and you really can't trade down, I think you can take them at the #1 spot. It's essentially the same position Houston found themselves in this year; Bush's perceived value was very high, but not so high that they could work a trade down to #2 overall to get the guy they really wanted.

I think it's crazy to expect Portis or Barber to outscore the top three, but that doesn't mean they won't.

 

[MLBrandow]

I can give you my reasons...

I believe his stats last year per partially inflated because he had fresh legs coming in 1/2 way through the season, playing against defenses that were 1/2 spent already.

Teams had to figure him out, which they have during off-season film sessions.

OL is another year older.

And last, but definitely not least, Herm Edwards...  Has he ever coached a team which puts up a huge amount of points every game?

Not to play a little devil's advocate, as I have LJ just as high as the next guy, but a few examples of this to help support your claims:
Dominic Rhodes '01|  8  buf  |   34   100  |    45  |  1 ||  9  mia  |   14    42  |     0  |  0 || 10  nor  |   18    67  |     8  |  1 || 11  sfo  |   27   104  |    43  |  2 || 12  bal  |   16    42  |    25  |  0 || 13  mia  |   17    79  |    19  |  0 || 14  atl  |   29   177  |    11  |  2 || 15  nyj  |   17   126  |    26  |  1 || 16  ram  |   20    83  |     9  |  1 || 17  den  |   31   141  |    30  |  0 |

Stacey Mack '01|  9  cin  |   15    71  |     6  |  2 || 10  pit  |    8     6  |    19  |  0 || 11  bal  |   13    50  |    45  |  2 || 12  gnb  |   16    27  |    13  |  0 || 13  cin  |   14    23  |    -1  |  0 || 14  cle  |   28   115  |    24  |  0 || 15  min  |   27   111  |     0  |  2 || 16  kan  |   16   125  |     8  |  1 || 17  chi  |   11    66  |     0  |  0 |

Clinton Portis '02|  5  sdg  |   20   102  |    17  |  1 ||  6  mia  |   18    75  |    67  |  0 ||  7  kan  |   15    70  |    14  |  1 ||  8  nwe  |   26   111  |     0  |  2 || 10  oak  |   14    50  |    26  |  1 || 11  sea  |   23   136  |    52  |  0 || 12  ind  |   18    88  |     0  |  2 || 13  sdg  |   23   159  |    34  |  2 || 14  nyj  |   24   103  |    22  |  0 || 15  kan  |   21   130  |    75  |  4 || 16  oak  |   12    52  |     5  |  1 || 17  ari  |   24   228  |    18  |  2 |

Marcel Shipp '02| 10  sea  |   16    85  |    20  |  0 || 11  phi  |    9    76  |    50  |  0 || 12  oak  |   16   135  |    20  |  1 || 13  kan  |   14    26  |    37  |  0 || 14  det  |   25    85  |    45  |  0 || 15  ram  |   26    79  |    79  |  3 || 16  sfo  |   20    84  |    31  |  0 || 17  den  |   17    58  |     6  |  0 |

William Green '03| 11  cin  |   25    96  |     4  |  0 || 12  nor  |   28   114  |     0  |  1 || 13  car  |   24    94  |    44  |  0 || 14  jax  |   26   119  |    25  |  1 || 15  ind  |   22    69  |    24  |  1 || 16  bal  |   20    56  |     2  |  0 || 17  atl  |   27   178  |     9  |  2 |

Lee Suggs '04| 15  sdg  |   21   105  |    -2  |  0 || 16  mia  |   38   143  |     4  |  0 || 17  hou  |   26   131  |    23  |  0 |

Willis McGahee '04|  6  mia  |   26   111  |    31  |  0 ||  7  bal  |   16    58  |     1  |  0 ||  8  ari  |   30   102  |     9  |  2 ||  9  nyj  |   37   132  |    11  |  1 || 10  nwe  |   14    37  |    12  |  0 || 11  ram  |   20   100  |    27  |  0 || 12  sea  |   28   116  |    26  |  4 || 13  mia  |   23    91  |     4  |  0 || 14  cle  |   27   105  |    12  |  2 || 15  cin  |   11    25  |     1  |  0 || 16  sfo  |   15   102  |    14  |  2 || 17  pit  |   18    79  |     7  |  2 |

Nick Goings '04| 11  ari  |   22   121  |    21  |  3 || 12  tam  |   23   106  |    17  |  0 || 13  nor  |   36   122  |    46  |  1 || 14  ram  |   31   108  |     0  |  1 || 15  atl  |   24    61  |    29  |  1 || 16  tam  |   33   127  |    39  |  0 || 17  nor  |   13    46  |    63  |  0 |

Reuben Droughns '04|  5  car  |   30   193  |    18  |  1 ||  6  oak  |   38   176  |     4  |  1 ||  7  cin  |   24   110  |    20  |  0 ||  8  atl  |   15    49  |    63  |  0 ||  9  hou  |   29   120  |     6  |  0 || 11  nor  |   28   166  |    25  |  1 || 12  oak  |   28   102  |    -5  |  1 || 13  sdg  |   14    38  |    35  |  1 || 14  mia  |   18    62  |     0  |  0 || 15  kan  |    4    27  |    14  |  0 || 16  ten  |   22    91  |    30  |  3 || 17  ind  |   15    76  |     0  |  0 |

Samkon Gado '05|  9  pit  |   26    62  |     9  |  1 || 10  atl  |   25   103  |     5  |  3 || 11  min  |   10     7  |    30  |  0 || 12  phi  |   26   111  |    11  |  1 || 13  chi  |   20    75  |    12  |  1 || 14  det  |   29   171  |     9  |  1 || 15  bal  |    6    45  |     1  |  0 |

DeShaun Foster '05| 12  buf  |   22    74  |    24  |  0 || 13  atl  |   24   131  |    49  |  2 || 14  tam  |   14    46  |     2  |  0 || 15  nor  |   21    75  |     9  |  0 || 16  dal  |   22    68  |    13  |  0 || 17  atl  |   18   165  |     0  |  1 || 18  nyg  |   27   151  |    4   |  1 |

Larry Johnson '05|  9  oak  |   22   107  |    48  |  2 || 10  buf  |   27   132  |    46  |  0 || 11  hou  |   36   211  |     6  |  2 || 12  nwe  |   31   119  |    53  |  1 || 13  den  |   30   140  |     9  |  2 || 14  dal  |   26   143  |    28  |  3 || 15  nyg  |   31   167  |    17  |  2 || 16  sdg  |   32   131  |    48  |  2 || 17  cin  |   26   201  |    21  |  3 |

Anyway, what's my point? You should be noticing a couple trends here:Some of these guys take over and dominate, and then their last game or so, they drop back to being marginal. For most of these guys that are career backups that bust on the scene and play half a season, you see this (Goings, Shipp, Mack, WGreen, etc).

A few of them takeover, dominate for a bit, then see a dip in carries as they wear, but still put up decent numbers (Droughns, McGahee, e.g.)

Then you have a group of guys that take over and perform, and then don't see a dropoff (Rhodes, Portis, Johnson). These guys took over, bore a portly half season of work, and kept going.

Do these numbers mean anything? I don't know, but if I had to guess I'd say the guys that didn't slow down and dominated did so because not only were they fresher, but were built for a full season of wear. They looked because they were starting-caliber backs, versus the guys who looked good temporarily filling in, and then you never hear them again.

Now, is Larry Johnson going to fall back to mediocrity? Doubtful. Did he see any signs of drop off by the end of the season? Doesn't look like it.

This guy was putting up Jim Brown stats. No one could stop him. No one could touch him. He went up against the #1 rushing defense of the Chargers, #2 Denver defense, #7 NE defense (that was much better, but had injuries for most of the first half of the season), and then the #32, #31 and #25 defenses in HOU, BUF, OAK as well as a few middle of the packs. Did you really see any difference?

You shouldn't.

In 3 games versus #1, #2, #7: 390ruyd, 110reyd, 5TD, 26.7PPG

In 3 games versus #25, #31, #32: 450ruyd, 100reyd, 4TD 26.3PPG

Do you think you can gameplan against a stud like that and shut him down on a consistent basis? Do you think he cared what the rushing defenses were ranked? Doubtful.

Do you think a HC who has led 3/5 teams to the playoffs is bad for LJ? The only two years he missed were when his QBs were lost in the preseason. You can't exactly fault him for that.

You really think a HC who couldn't run the ball enough suddenly will try to go deep every play with Samie Parker and Eddie Kennison? NYJ were 3rd in rushing offense in '04. It was no fluke. And I think LJ is slightly more explosive than the combo of Jordan/CMart.

You really think Edwards is going to say "you're scoring too many points LJ, just run for like 4 yards so we can burn the clock"?

I think your criticisms are valid, but at the same time, I don't believe they are correct.

 

[PahtyTom]

What were your offers that were turned down? Need data to better evaluate.

Numbers 2 and 3 do not want to trade up they say because they want their decisions made for them and see no difference in the top 3. I'm not sure if I believe them though (I suspect team 3 could be eyeing portis over LT). Teams 4 and 5 will trade but a.) I'm not sure portis will be there at 4 b.) team 4 has only offered to swap picks in the 1st and 2nd and maybe in the 5th and 6th but to me, that is not worth the risk c.)team 5 has offered the most; swap 1st and 2nd then I get a 4th for my 5th and an 8th for my 9th, but I'm almost sure that Portis would be gone by then.To clear something up, I do indeed think LJ is a beast and is legit. I just see some negative changes (new HC, lost OC, lost starting RT, lost FB even if he was a little overrated last year) against him this year, while Portis has nothing but positive changes (Healthy talented intact OL, new better surrounding weapons, great new OC). I see less risk in Portis, while not the same ceiling. I actually flip/flop between these 2 almost everyday now, but this scenario is relevant this year I believe.

Another thing I find odd this year is how LT is assumed to be part of the big 3, but Portis is not. If I wanted one rb on my team in the nfl, it would be LT. That being said, his surroundings this year are not even close to that of Portis' and he's been getting nicked up too. Also, it's not like Portis is a slouch. The guy is one of the most talented rbs in the league, is very young and entering his prime years, and has had GREAT fantasy seasons in the past. This year, I see a decided advantage for Portis over LT.

 

[CalBear]

Another thing I find odd this year is how LT is assumed to be part of the big 3, but Portis is not. If I wanted one rb on my team in the nfl, it would be LT. That being said, his surroundings this year are not even close to that of Portis' and he's been getting nicked up too. Also, it's not like Portis is a slouch. The guy is one of the most talented rbs in the league, is very young and entering his prime years, and has had GREAT fantasy seasons in the past. This year, I see a decided advantage for Portis over LT.

Portis has never finished in the top 3; LT has done it three years in a row. I don't see how Washington has upgraded the weapons around Portis; Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd? Neither of them has had 50 receptions or 750 yards receiving; they're not an upgrade to Thrash and Patten. And the Skins didn't take a single offensive player in the draft. It is certainly possible that Portis could finish in the top 3, but it seems like a bad bet compared to, well, any of the Big 3.

 

[jurb26]

just trade later

your opinion is your opinion...not discreditting it. You can't ignore how everyone else feels though. I would imagine later you could trade LJ for Portis + something else.

It's not that easy.I mean, let's say the guy who picks 5th winds up with Portis. If that guy is really so interested in LJ, then why didn't he trade up to #1 overall when he had the chance? If they wouldn't trade for LJ before the draft, why would they trade for him afterwards?

I'd lower my asking price for the #1 overall. Just try to swap draft spots in the first 2 rounds- i.e. you give picks 1.01 and 2.12 for picks 1.04 and 2.09. If they don't take it, then don't trade- it's a sign of weakness to keep lowering your offer, and it'll make them more likely to try to take advantage of you in-season. If you've made some very generous trade offers and no one's shown any interest, then you've gotta grab your guy. Like I said- if they weren't willing to trade BEFORE the draft, then what makes you think they'll be willing to trade after?

Because they would be trading known commodities after the draft. Maybe you'll snag a sleeper WR that they wanted that you can package with LJ to get Portis and a stud WR. Maybe they aren't happy with who fell to them in the 2nd or 3rd and would feel more secure with one of the big 3. Maybe they ended up with a bye week problem at RB and trading would alleviate that. Maybe they just aren't comfortable trading draft picks and feel like they would get ripped off if they traded before the draft. There are many reasons why they might trade after the draft but not before.

Moreover, what if the leaguemates all know he likes Portis or Barber and are just testing him, calling his bluff. Hoping that he takes that guy and theirs will fall. I know in some of my leagues, the players all know each other very well and know where they stand on issues such as this. Why would a guy trade for a player he is not sure will not fall to him anyway?

 

[MLBrandow]

Portis has never finished in the top 3; LT has done it three years in a row. I don't see how Washington has upgraded the weapons around Portis; Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd? Neither of them has had 50 receptions or 750 yards receiving; they're not an upgrade to Thrash and Patten. And the Skins didn't take a single offensive player in the draft.

It is certainly possible that Portis could finish in the top 3, but it seems like a bad bet compared to, well, any of the Big 3.

Thrash - 10th year

Patten - 10th year

Both looked like they had lost about 8 steps last year. Lloyd and Randle El are coming into their primes.

If there hadn't been any key additions to the Redskins, people wouldn't be so high on Portis.

Al Saunders is certainly a key addition

 

[joffer]

I can give you my reasons...

I believe his stats last year per partially inflated because he had fresh legs coming in 1/2 way through the season, playing against defenses that were 1/2 spent already.

Teams had to figure him out, which they have during off-season film sessions.

OL is another year older.

And last, but definitely not least, Herm Edwards... Has he ever coached a team which puts up a huge amount of points every game?

I've got LJ projected for about a 20%-25% drop in his production rate over the last 9 weeks last year....and he's still #1 by a lot.

 

[bjlmonster]

Here is how I see it!

#1 you don't want Tiki! If you did, you would not worry so much as one of Tiki or Portis will be their at #5.

#2 you want to trade down, but think Portis will be gone by #5 or even #4

So, here is what I do. I work the deal with the guy at #5 (I assume he would take LJ at #1 if he traded). The contingency is that you stay at #1 and draft LJ and he stays at #5. If Portis falls to #5, he takes Portis and you swap LJ for Portis and the picks. If Portis is gone, you keep LJ and try to trade with the guy who snagged Portis.

Meanwhile, you can continue to negotiate with the guy at #4 to get a deal that suits you better. At least you will get your man if he falls to #5 and if not, you will have LJ instead of being stuck with Tiki. WIth LJ, you then can continue to talk trade throughout the draft with whoever took Portis.

I agree don't go too low at this point, but continue to work it all the way up to and into the draft!