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Holmes wasn't performing as well as we would hope either, so that deal at the time was probably pretty good for both sides. Now, I don't give Rivers and Holmes for Marshall, but it isn't that far out of the ballpark. Nucleus players are hard to come by, problem here is two switched sides and Holmes should be at least a solid starter for the future.
#1 and #2 options are Edwards and Winslow (assuming Winslow isn't moved, which is a possibility). Stallworth will be moving on, but Steptoe, Hubbard, or a FA will likely take his place. Cribbs will be entering his 5th year, and all things considered I think it pretty unlikely he will put up fantasy-useful numbers in 2009.
Plus Jurevicius wants to come back and if he is healthy will get a lot of playing time.
This SB MVP will defintiely erase any chance of getting this guy cheap next year.
I was going to post Ginn too. I liked the fact that his fantasy performance improved over the second half of the season and I saw him make some really fine catches in those end of year games. In my PPR league his scoring was this: Week
Wrong. It's not a myth. However, it can be overstated. The fact is that the third year is the one where the MOST WRs breakout; but it isn't the only one. Most breakout in third or fourth (less than third but still a good number) and if a guy doesn't produce impressive numbers by his fifth he almost never will, with a few rare exceptions that prove the rule. This has been demonstrated on this board in the past but I am not going to go fishing for the thread.
But isn't it true that after the third or fourth year, the chances of a player that hasn't yet broken out then breaking out are pretty slim? Mark Clayton, for example, in four years, has not hit 70 receptions or 1000 yards despite being a starter in 47 of 62 games.What was the criteria for "breaking out", BTW? Was it a threshold for receptions/yardage or was it defined by an increase in that player's previous performance?For instance, finding the guy who will break 75 catches for 1000 yards and 6 TD's (which puts him in WR2 territory) who hasn't previously done so is more important to me than finding a guy who did nothing the previous year but breaks out for 55/750/4.
HERE is a comprehensive study done a few seasons ago. Since then, there have been threads on the subject but none more thorough than this mathematical study.From what I remember about some of the other threads, 3rd year may have been a few percentage points better in terms of breakout seasons, but by no menas a huge majority. For example, maybe it had 21% when other years had 19%, 18%, and 17%. IMO, that's more a myth then something you can hang your hat on.
Why did he stop listing some guys stats going across the column? I'm interested in which of these groups, if any, are most likely to sustain success throughout a career. My thought is a 2nd or 3rd year guy might be much more likely to keep up that success than a rookie or a later breakout player, but its just a hunch. What are your thoughts?
I remember reading the article and taking exception to some of his parameters. I still believe your best bets for a breakout are years 2-4, with the rookie season being too much of a crapshoot and the later years usually no surprise. The 3rd is still the sweet spot and should be a time the player has acclimated to the league. I look for late bloomer exceptions when some other factor changes; like a change in coaching staff or even QB.
Yes, and there was another study I saw here--or at another fantasy football site--which I thought was better done. And it showed that first year was pretty much unreliable; second year there were more; third year most; fourth year still some who emerge; after that there are some...but precious few.Don't really want to Hi-jack this thread though--and to me, there are many reasons to like Ted Ginn beyond the three year breakout rule-myth-whatever. Certainly, the fact that he hasn't had a huge year yet hardly proves he won't.DropKick said:
I'm not the OP, but this is an easy argument to make. It's his second year in Zorn's offense and they have 2 talented young WRs in the pipeline and only need one to develop to go with Moss and Cooley. There's clearly no guarantee of fantasy greatness here, but it seems like a favorable situation.
*Bengalshomer*
Would have been a good idea it turns out.
