FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
"Don't overreact".
It's been something that's always been viewed as a way to separate the sharks from the guppies. Let the guppies panic and chase the points. We'll sit back and relax with our proven, long-term plays.
Recently, however, I believe it's gotten to the point where people are abusing the idea so badly that it's holding them back. In my mind, there are two big mistakes that "advanced" FFers make that are working in combination here.
1. Short memories
2. Stubborness in sticking with offseason player values
Consider the following..
[*]Last year, more than 40% of players selected in the first 8 rounds vastly underperformed (were basically "busts")
[*]44% of the players chosen in the first 5 rounds this year were not selected in the first 5 rounds last year
[*]25% of the players selected in the first 2 rounds this year were not selected in the first 5 rounds last year
What does this tell us? It tells us that every year, there is a lot of turnover among early round players. That's something we all know, but something that very few people actually accept.
Most of these guys moving out of the top tiers, and the guys moving into the top tiers to replace them, start doing so right off the bat. Yet, we have this "don't overreact" excuse so quickly queued up and ready to go that we cling to the rankings we have two weeks ago and refuse to adjust until it's too late.
There are still gobs of people out there that haven't even considered the idea of adjusting the value of guys like Chris Johnson or Stevan Ridley at all. We get tied to the draft. That guy was an XXth round pick so there's no way that I'm moving him for a guy that was taken XX picks later just a few weeks ago. I'll show these overreacting n00bs how it's done.
In the end, maybe they'll be right, as there are plenty of examples of guys who started strong/weak and turned things around quickly as well. The issue here is that there are far too many people that are completely unwilling to even consider that the draft could be wrong. Almost half of the top 100 players will be busts. Moving them while you still can is necessary, and the odds tell us that the majority of those busts will be guys who looked like busts right out of the gates. Likewise, roughly a quarter of the players drafted in the first 2 rounds next year will be guys that were drafted late this year. Chances are that most of them will be guys who looked good early in the year, and having those guys on your team this year, when they still don't cost a 1st or 2nd round pick, is what wins championships.
For fun, I went back and searched the early 2011 threads to find the players that were most commonly shrugged off with the "don't overreact". The three top results were...
[*]Cam Newton
[*]Rob Gronkowski
[*]Aaron Hernandez
Week 1 may very well be too early for this thread, but over the next few weeks we're going to see trends developing with a lot of these guys, and we're going to see a lot of people continuing to cling to preseason rankings while using the excuse that the people making moves are overreacting. They may adjust, but not enough. They want to make sure not to "overreact".
While it's true that the percentage of guys who have shown their true new self will be lower after just one week than two or three or four, they're also going to be cheaper to acquire or better to sell off in that span. There is such a thing as buying high or selling low when you're still not buying at the peak or selling at the floor. A guy like Ridley is worth more than the spot he was drafted in and a guy like Chris Johnson is worth less. The more they develop those week 1 performances into a trend, the more that gap will widen.
I hope that if Ridley/CJ immediately turn things around in the next few weeks some folks completely dismiss this thread. The point here is not to go out and buy everyone with a hot start or sell everyone with a slow one. The point is that there are far too many discussions about players on this board right now where people are unwilling to even discuss a change in player value, instead blowing it off as simple "overreaction". Don't get caught in that trap. Evaluate each situation individually. Several of those guys that people are blowing off are going to be FF Championship winning players. Some that people cling to despite the signs are going to crush their team. Identifying the up and coming studs and rapidly dying incumbents are what win FF titles, and chances are that most of those guys are going to come from the group of players that folks are "overreacting" about.
It's been something that's always been viewed as a way to separate the sharks from the guppies. Let the guppies panic and chase the points. We'll sit back and relax with our proven, long-term plays.
Recently, however, I believe it's gotten to the point where people are abusing the idea so badly that it's holding them back. In my mind, there are two big mistakes that "advanced" FFers make that are working in combination here.
1. Short memories
2. Stubborness in sticking with offseason player values
Consider the following..
[*]Last year, more than 40% of players selected in the first 8 rounds vastly underperformed (were basically "busts")
[*]44% of the players chosen in the first 5 rounds this year were not selected in the first 5 rounds last year
[*]25% of the players selected in the first 2 rounds this year were not selected in the first 5 rounds last year
What does this tell us? It tells us that every year, there is a lot of turnover among early round players. That's something we all know, but something that very few people actually accept.
Most of these guys moving out of the top tiers, and the guys moving into the top tiers to replace them, start doing so right off the bat. Yet, we have this "don't overreact" excuse so quickly queued up and ready to go that we cling to the rankings we have two weeks ago and refuse to adjust until it's too late.
There are still gobs of people out there that haven't even considered the idea of adjusting the value of guys like Chris Johnson or Stevan Ridley at all. We get tied to the draft. That guy was an XXth round pick so there's no way that I'm moving him for a guy that was taken XX picks later just a few weeks ago. I'll show these overreacting n00bs how it's done.
In the end, maybe they'll be right, as there are plenty of examples of guys who started strong/weak and turned things around quickly as well. The issue here is that there are far too many people that are completely unwilling to even consider that the draft could be wrong. Almost half of the top 100 players will be busts. Moving them while you still can is necessary, and the odds tell us that the majority of those busts will be guys who looked like busts right out of the gates. Likewise, roughly a quarter of the players drafted in the first 2 rounds next year will be guys that were drafted late this year. Chances are that most of them will be guys who looked good early in the year, and having those guys on your team this year, when they still don't cost a 1st or 2nd round pick, is what wins championships.
For fun, I went back and searched the early 2011 threads to find the players that were most commonly shrugged off with the "don't overreact". The three top results were...
[*]Cam Newton
[*]Rob Gronkowski
[*]Aaron Hernandez
Week 1 may very well be too early for this thread, but over the next few weeks we're going to see trends developing with a lot of these guys, and we're going to see a lot of people continuing to cling to preseason rankings while using the excuse that the people making moves are overreacting. They may adjust, but not enough. They want to make sure not to "overreact".
While it's true that the percentage of guys who have shown their true new self will be lower after just one week than two or three or four, they're also going to be cheaper to acquire or better to sell off in that span. There is such a thing as buying high or selling low when you're still not buying at the peak or selling at the floor. A guy like Ridley is worth more than the spot he was drafted in and a guy like Chris Johnson is worth less. The more they develop those week 1 performances into a trend, the more that gap will widen.
I hope that if Ridley/CJ immediately turn things around in the next few weeks some folks completely dismiss this thread. The point here is not to go out and buy everyone with a hot start or sell everyone with a slow one. The point is that there are far too many discussions about players on this board right now where people are unwilling to even discuss a change in player value, instead blowing it off as simple "overreaction". Don't get caught in that trap. Evaluate each situation individually. Several of those guys that people are blowing off are going to be FF Championship winning players. Some that people cling to despite the signs are going to crush their team. Identifying the up and coming studs and rapidly dying incumbents are what win FF titles, and chances are that most of those guys are going to come from the group of players that folks are "overreacting" about.
OP!
Another good behavioral econ effect you see rearing its head in FF is the Endowment Effect.
