Undervalued for 2012 (1 Viewer)

[wiscstlatlmia]

Lance Kendricks, Sam Bradford, and whoever the new Rams RB will be next year...I have a feeling they are going undefeated and to the Super Bowl.

I sure hope so lol

 

[Hendo]

Mathew Stafford ironically could be after observing the Pro-Bowl voting and hearing *crickets* about him basicalt all year regardless of his stats.

 

[Rodeojones]

I vote McFadden if he falls into the late 1st or even early 2nd. People likely will discount him due to his durability and that's fair - though what rbs weren't hurt this year? - and at the same time he is a top rb regardless I match up when healthy an on he field. Just make sure you draft his handcuff too!

Totally agree with this. I drafted McFadden as my second RB and failed to grab Bush which was a huge mistake. If I have the opportunity to draft McFadden next year, I will def target his back up.

 

[Rodeojones]

I could see Cam Newton being undervalued simply because of how high his ceiling is. With a full training camp under his belt he could be the #1 rated fantasy QB next year. Getting drafted after Rogers, Brees, and Brady could offer some nice value.

 

[djmich]

Matt Ryan. The Falcons seem to be trying to go to more of a pass first offense. They tried it early and it looked ugly. But Ryan has been very strong the 2nd half of the year (only materially behind Rodgers and Brees in ppg for my league scoring). Roddy White, Julio Jones and probably Tony Gonzalez back next year. Hopefully they start to fade out Turner with more Jacquizz, which should get Ryan more passing yards from RB's and open up the offense more.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The OP has a ton of guys I would not call undervalued at all. Santonio Holmes UNDERvalued?? He has been among the most overrated players in the league for like 4 years now.

How about you guys stop hating and come up with some actual info... Have you watched Santonio Holmes play this year? His situation sucks, not him. Hes undervalued because the majority of people think like you and think hes overrated because hes having down years blah blah blah. Thats my list, Come up with your own ...

This might become even more interesting if the Jets move away from Sanchez.

 

[todisco1]

Matt Ryan. The Falcons seem to be trying to go to more of a pass first offense. They tried it early and it looked ugly. But Ryan has been very strong the 2nd half of the year (only materially behind Rodgers and Brees in ppg for my league scoring). Roddy White, Julio Jones and probably Tony Gonzalez back next year. Hopefully they start to fade out Turner with more Jacquizz, which should get Ryan more passing yards from RB's and open up the offense more.

Agree with this - Ryan has 4000+ yds and 29 total TDs through 15 games, that's pretty darn good.

 

[FF Ninja]

great topic, weird OP. May I suggest narrowing the list down?

I have to agree with this.The guy who instantly comes to mind when I think of probable undervalued players for 2012 is Brandon Lloyd. He's a FA, but if he signs in StL and Josh McDaniels is still the OC next year, watch out. I'm going to say he is a top 12 lock, and a prime candidate for top 5.Other notables:Andre Johnson - injuries will weigh heavilyMike Williams - I was absolutely drinking the haterade this year, but I actually think he'll slip so drastically that he'll be undervalued next yearMiles Austin - same as AJ except also with Robinson and Bryant scaring away draftersJeremy Maclin - several factors contributed to his demise this year; next year will be a fresh start with a lower ADPWayne/Collie - if Manning is back, but I'm not counting on Luck to pull a NewtonPeyton Hillis - just put up 112 on the Ravens; he's still a studLeGarrette Blount - he's an RB2, so if he falls to RB3 then he's valueMark Ingram - much like Blount, it depends where he lands. I'm willing to bet on more touches in 2012R. Mendenhall - again, depends on how far his stock fallsBen Roethlisberger - would've hit 4500 yds if healthy, WR corps going to be silly good next yearJay Cutler - they've got to get him some WRs next year, right?

I think there are tons of undervalued guys, some wont pan out, but why make the list shorter if I honestly believe all these guys are undervalued? New addition to the list = Joe Webb definitely a guy to keep an eye on with the recent reports that he might be the QB of the future.

Because you've got so many guys that you are having to reach. Santonio Holmes is WR27 this year. If Sanchez is back again next year, then he'll once again be a WR3 with WR2 upside. For him to be notably undervalued he'd have to be going like WR35. Philip Rivers is currently QB9. Where do you think he should be? QB7? That isn't worth listing as undervalued. I think guys like Brandon Lloyd who is likely going to be drafted around WR20-25 who will likely finish as WR5-7 is someone worth discussing. Otherwise you dilute your list to the point where it doesn't seem worth discussing.And for those discussing Matt Ryan - I'm not buying it. Matt Ryan is basically an Alex Smith who throws the ball more often. 61.0%, 7.1 ypa 3.2:1 TD:INT vs. 61.2%, 7.3 ypa, 2.25:1 TD:INT. Matt Ryan is a middling NFL QB who happens to thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year. For this he will be overvalued next year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rivers, Vick should all go ahead of him. Eli and Schaub are probably of similar worth with lower ADPs with likely a few guys such as Bradford or Dalton improving next year. Four years into the league and Ryan has yet to get near his rookie ypa of 7.9 - his career average is now 7.0. He will always be limited by his attempts - moreso than other QBs.

 

[Prince Myshkin]

And for those discussing Matt Ryan - I'm not buying it. Matt Ryan is basically an Alex Smith who throws the ball more often. 61.0%, 7.1 ypa 3.2:1 TD:INT vs. 61.2%, 7.3 ypa, 2.25:1 TD:INT. Matt Ryan is a middling NFL QB who happens to thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year. For this he will be overvalued next year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rivers, Vick should all go ahead of him. Eli and Schaub are probably of similar worth with lower ADPs with likely a few guys such as Bradford or Dalton improving next year. Four years into the league and Ryan has yet to get near his rookie ypa of 7.9 - his career average is now 7.0. He will always be limited by his attempts - moreso than other QBs.

i'm confused by the bolded above. he's limited by his attempts more so than other qb's but yet he's thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year? add that to the fact that the offense seems to be trending towards passing more (adding jones, turner getting older) and it seems like a recipe for a under-rated player to me. you listed 8 qb's above him (and i'm going to throw stafford into that list as well). if i can get matt ryan as the #10 qb next year, while loading up on rb/wr/te talent in the early rounds, i'll feel pretty good about my chances.

 

[FF Ninja]

And for those discussing Matt Ryan - I'm not buying it. Matt Ryan is basically an Alex Smith who throws the ball more often. 61.0%, 7.1 ypa 3.2:1 TD:INT vs. 61.2%, 7.3 ypa, 2.25:1 TD:INT. Matt Ryan is a middling NFL QB who happens to thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year. For this he will be overvalued next year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rivers, Vick should all go ahead of him. Eli and Schaub are probably of similar worth with lower ADPs with likely a few guys such as Bradford or Dalton improving next year. Four years into the league and Ryan has yet to get near his rookie ypa of 7.9 - his career average is now 7.0. He will always be limited by his attempts - moreso than other QBs.

i'm confused by the bolded above. he's limited by his attempts more so than other qb's but yet he's thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year? add that to the fact that the offense seems to be trending towards passing more (adding jones, turner getting older) and it seems like a recipe for a under-rated player to me. you listed 8 qb's above him (and i'm going to throw stafford into that list as well). if i can get matt ryan as the #10 qb next year, while loading up on rb/wr/te talent in the early rounds, i'll feel pretty good about my chances.

What I'm saying is that if he doesn't get a ton of attempts then he's worthless. The guy's ypa is lower than the good QBs and he doesn't generate TDs at a very good rate, so if Atlanta's defense improves or they start running the ball more (believe it or not, they can draft someone or sign a FA - their running game won't retire the same time Turner does) then Matt Ryan will quickly drop to the middle of the pack.

 

[Prince Myshkin]

And for those discussing Matt Ryan - I'm not buying it. Matt Ryan is basically an Alex Smith who throws the ball more often. 61.0%, 7.1 ypa 3.2:1 TD:INT vs. 61.2%, 7.3 ypa, 2.25:1 TD:INT. Matt Ryan is a middling NFL QB who happens to thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year. For this he will be overvalued next year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rivers, Vick should all go ahead of him. Eli and Schaub are probably of similar worth with lower ADPs with likely a few guys such as Bradford or Dalton improving next year. Four years into the league and Ryan has yet to get near his rookie ypa of 7.9 - his career average is now 7.0. He will always be limited by his attempts - moreso than other QBs.

i'm confused by the bolded above. he's limited by his attempts more so than other qb's but yet he's thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year? add that to the fact that the offense seems to be trending towards passing more (adding jones, turner getting older) and it seems like a recipe for a under-rated player to me. you listed 8 qb's above him (and i'm going to throw stafford into that list as well). if i can get matt ryan as the #10 qb next year, while loading up on rb/wr/te talent in the early rounds, i'll feel pretty good about my chances.

What I'm saying is that if he doesn't get a ton of attempts then he's worthless. The guy's ypa is lower than the good QBs and he doesn't generate TDs at a very good rate, so if Atlanta's defense improves or they start running the ball more (believe it or not, they can draft someone or sign a FA - their running game won't retire the same time Turner does) then Matt Ryan will quickly drop to the middle of the pack.

ahh...makes a little more sense now. i don't agree, but i see what you were saying anyway. atlanta's offense has become more pass oriented...the stats you listed point to as much. they traded numerous picks away to get julio jones. i don't see them adding much to the running game this off-season after drafting rogers last year. and the defense hasn't been terrible to the point that they are getting behind by a ton early and abandoning the running game because of it (new orleans has done that to a lot of teams). i guess what i'm saying is that i see no reason why ryan would pass significantly less next season and he's put up very good numbers over the last half of the season. he should have all his weapons back next year with 2 legit wr's...seems like a recipe for a nice season to me.

 

[thatguy]

nicks dropped so many td passes this yr and the past few weeks more specifically.

All the more reason he will be undervalued. Kid is a supreme talent. He will end up on my teams.

Same story with Marshall... I read somewhere that he has dropped 7 TD's on the season. I witnessed a few of these, some were of the 30-40 yard variety. So, let's say he catches just 5 of those 7, and let's say that adds an additional 75 yards to this season total, we're looking at a line of 82-1250-11, which would have him firmly entrenched as a top 5 WR in pretty much all leagues. I think his increased output in TD's over the second half of the season bodes well for him going into next season.I will say, however, that it's not always wise to just assume these mistakes (the drops, in this case) are correctable, for either Nicks or Marshall. Are they an anomaly, or is what you see what you get, and will continue to get? Marshall has always had issues with drops, but I do think, as I alluded to earlier, that he has corrected it somewhat these past 7 or 8 weeks.I guess time will tell, but if the two can correct these issues, both could be in for monster 2012 seasons. In Marshall's case, I really hope Matt Moore is the starter next season, as they seem to have a solid connection.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

And for those discussing Matt Ryan - I'm not buying it. Matt Ryan is basically an Alex Smith who throws the ball more often. 61.0%, 7.1 ypa 3.2:1 TD:INT vs. 61.2%, 7.3 ypa, 2.25:1 TD:INT. Matt Ryan is a middling NFL QB who happens to thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year. For this he will be overvalued next year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rivers, Vick should all go ahead of him. Eli and Schaub are probably of similar worth with lower ADPs with likely a few guys such as Bradford or Dalton improving next year. Four years into the league and Ryan has yet to get near his rookie ypa of 7.9 - his career average is now 7.0. He will always be limited by his attempts - moreso than other QBs.

i'm confused by the bolded above. he's limited by his attempts more so than other qb's but yet he's thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year? add that to the fact that the offense seems to be trending towards passing more (adding jones, turner getting older) and it seems like a recipe for a under-rated player to me. you listed 8 qb's above him (and i'm going to throw stafford into that list as well). if i can get matt ryan as the #10 qb next year, while loading up on rb/wr/te talent in the early rounds, i'll feel pretty good about my chances.

What I'm saying is that if he doesn't get a ton of attempts then he's worthless. The guy's ypa is lower than the good QBs and he doesn't generate TDs at a very good rate, so if Atlanta's defense improves or they start running the ball more (believe it or not, they can draft someone or sign a FA - their running game won't retire the same time Turner does) then Matt Ryan will quickly drop to the middle of the pack.

I'm curious as to what Atlanta receivers YAC avg is compared to other teams because all Julio needs is a 7yd catch to take one to the house, which makes Ryan more intriguing to me.

 

[FF Ninja]

ahh...makes a little more sense now. i don't agree, but i see what you were saying anyway. atlanta's offense has become more pass oriented...the stats you listed point to as much. they traded numerous picks away to get julio jones. i don't see them adding much to the running game this off-season after drafting rogers last year. and the defense hasn't been terrible to the point that they are getting behind by a ton early and abandoning the running game because of it (new orleans has done that to a lot of teams). i guess what i'm saying is that i see no reason why ryan would pass significantly less next season and he's put up very good numbers over the last half of the season. he should have all his weapons back next year with 2 legit wr's...seems like a recipe for a nice season to me.

I guess I'm just one of those guys who wants a good real life quarterback if drafting him top 10. That way if things even out and my QB doesn't throw the ball 37 times a game, he'll still make something happen with 32 passes. Flacco isn't very popular, but in previous years (2011 has been bad for him) if he threw the ball more, he'd be a better fantasy play than Ryan. In the same vein, if Atlanta stops throwing the ball a ridiculous amount, you just got Joe Flacco as the 10th QB off the board. As for value in 2012, I think Schaub will be much better than Ryan. I expect similar stats and Schaub will go several rounds later. And while I'm looking at Flacco's numbers, that guy could be a speculative buy next year. He's going to go late due to his terrible regression this year, but Baltimore is throwing the ball more. If he can regain his 2010 form and they throw the ball as frequently as 2011 then he could break out a 4000 yard 30 TD season. Sounds crazy, but these things happen and then we're all wondering how we missed the signs. Flacco's ypa had increased every year until this year. This is almost certainly due to his 6% drop in completion %. His yards per completion is 11.7 while last year's was 11.8 (his other two years have been 11.6 and 11.5), so this seems correctable.

 

[bro1ncos]

What about Kenny Britt? Will he even be the first WR off his team to be taken in a redraft next year or even a dynasty?

 

[todisco1]

What about Kenny Britt? Will he even be the first WR off his team to be taken in a redraft next year or even a dynasty?

I would absolutely think he'd be the first Titan WR off the board. I do like the strides Damian Williams made in his 2nd year and think he could end up becoming a nice fantasy player.

 

[bro1ncos]

What about Kenny Britt? Will he even be the first WR off his team to be taken in a redraft next year or even a dynasty?

I would absolutely think he'd be the first Titan WR off the board. I do like the strides Damian Williams made in his 2nd year and think he could end up becoming a nice fantasy player.

I absolutely agree, but will he be forgotten in redrafts because of the emergence of Nate Washington and will dynasty owners lean towards Williams since he has less legal trouble with the league and now less injury history?

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

great topic, weird OP. May I suggest narrowing the list down?

I have to agree with this.The guy who instantly comes to mind when I think of probable undervalued players for 2012 is Brandon Lloyd. He's a FA, but if he signs in StL and Josh McDaniels is still the OC next year, watch out. I'm going to say he is a top 12 lock, and a prime candidate for top 5.

Other notables:

Andre Johnson - injuries will weigh heavily

Mike Williams - I was absolutely drinking the haterade this year, but I actually think he'll slip so drastically that he'll be undervalued next year

Miles Austin - same as AJ except also with Robinson and Bryant scaring away drafters

Jeremy Maclin - several factors contributed to his demise this year; next year will be a fresh start with a lower ADP

Wayne/Collie - if Manning is back, but I'm not counting on Luck to pull a Newton

Peyton Hillis - just put up 112 on the Ravens; he's still a stud

LeGarrette Blount - he's an RB2, so if he falls to RB3 then he's value

Mark Ingram - much like Blount, it depends where he lands. I'm willing to bet on more touches in 2012

R. Mendenhall - again, depends on how far his stock falls

Ben Roethlisberger - would've hit 4500 yds if healthy, WR corps going to be silly good next year

Jay Cutler - they've got to get him some WRs next year, right?

I think there are tons of undervalued guys, some wont pan out, but why make the list shorter if I honestly believe all these guys are undervalued? New addition to the list = Joe Webb definitely a guy to keep an eye on with the recent reports that he might be the QB of the future.

Because you've got so many guys that you are having to reach. Santonio Holmes is WR27 this year. If Sanchez is back again next year, then he'll once again be a WR3 with WR2 upside. For him to be notably undervalued he'd have to be going like WR35. Philip Rivers is currently QB9. Where do you think he should be? QB7? That isn't worth listing as undervalued. I think guys like Brandon Lloyd who is likely going to be drafted around WR20-25 who will likely finish as WR5-7 is someone worth discussing. Otherwise you dilute your list to the point where it doesn't seem worth discussing.And for those discussing Matt Ryan - I'm not buying it. Matt Ryan is basically an Alex Smith who throws the ball more often. 61.0%, 7.1 ypa 3.2:1 TD:INT vs. 61.2%, 7.3 ypa, 2.25:1 TD:INT. Matt Ryan is a middling NFL QB who happens to thrown the ball the 4th most in the NFL this year. For this he will be overvalued next year. Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rivers, Vick should all go ahead of him. Eli and Schaub are probably of similar worth with lower ADPs with likely a few guys such as Bradford or Dalton improving next year. Four years into the league and Ryan has yet to get near his rookie ypa of 7.9 - his career average is now 7.0. He will always be limited by his attempts moreso than other QBs.

I dilute the list to the point where it doesn't seem worth discussing LOL.... so since I put a few borderline guys in that I consider undervalued ....It brings it to the point where its not even worth discussing anymore? That, my friend, is an extremely dramatic statement. I think phillip Rivers is much better than hes played this year...Yes, I do think QB 9 is undervalued for him and yes I do think he could be top 5 next year...Just like I thought Stafford was undervalued coming into this year. He went around QB 9-10 this year and he was the only bridge to keep you from getting destroyed each week by the elite QBs. Rivers has proven to be an elite fantasy QB before and I think he has the potential to do it again....

 

[butcher boy]

Gonna throw out Ocho Cinco as much as I hate to prop the guy up. He did nothing this year, but still has physical skills to play and can probably be drafted late enough to provide value with tons of upside.

 

[Prince Myshkin]

ahh...makes a little more sense now. i don't agree, but i see what you were saying anyway. atlanta's offense has become more pass oriented...the stats you listed point to as much. they traded numerous picks away to get julio jones. i don't see them adding much to the running game this off-season after drafting rogers last year. and the defense hasn't been terrible to the point that they are getting behind by a ton early and abandoning the running game because of it (new orleans has done that to a lot of teams). i guess what i'm saying is that i see no reason why ryan would pass significantly less next season and he's put up very good numbers over the last half of the season. he should have all his weapons back next year with 2 legit wr's...seems like a recipe for a nice season to me.

I guess I'm just one of those guys who wants a good real life quarterback if drafting him top 10. That way if things even out and my QB doesn't throw the ball 37 times a game, he'll still make something happen with 32 passes. Flacco isn't very popular, but in previous years (2011 has been bad for him) if he threw the ball more, he'd be a better fantasy play than Ryan. In the same vein, if Atlanta stops throwing the ball a ridiculous amount, you just got Joe Flacco as the 10th QB off the board. As for value in 2012, I think Schaub will be much better than Ryan. I expect similar stats and Schaub will go several rounds later. And while I'm looking at Flacco's numbers, that guy could be a speculative buy next year. He's going to go late due to his terrible regression this year, but Baltimore is throwing the ball more. If he can regain his 2010 form and they throw the ball as frequently as 2011 then he could break out a 4000 yard 30 TD season. Sounds crazy, but these things happen and then we're all wondering how we missed the signs. Flacco's ypa had increased every year until this year. This is almost certainly due to his 6% drop in completion %. His yards per completion is 11.7 while last year's was 11.8 (his other two years have been 11.6 and 11.5), so this seems correctable.

i mean we are talking about ryan as the #10 qb...barely a starter in most leagues. you say "if i'm taking him top 10" like most leagues start 20 qb's or something. he finished last year at #8 and is currently #6 (even after a pretty bad start to the year) according to FBG's. situation looks stable for next year. i personally don't see schaub or flacco out-performing him, but we'll see i guess.