Up by 7, go for 2-pt. conversion? (1 Viewer)

[M. Flak]

Let's say we're in the 4th quarter and you get a TD to put you up by 7. Do you kick an extra point or go for 2? I'd say you go for 2 to make it a 2-score game.

 

[Mr. Retukes]

Why do you think 9 points requires 2 scores, but 8 points does not?

 

[Horses Mouth]

Why do you think 8 points requires 2 scores, but 7 points does not?

Lol

 

[M. Flak]

Up by 7 at TD, XP would make it 8, 2 point would make it 9.

 

[Not Sleeping]

Why do you think 8 points requires 2 scores, but 7 points does not?

Congratulations. You just made the original dumb question look a little less dumb by comparison.

 

[RenegadeGM]

No. If you go up by 8, the other team has to score and is forced to go for 2 just to TIE you.

 

[M. Flak]

Wait, seriously? I think this is a worthwhile question. A 2-point conversion is a 50/50 proposition for both you and your opponent. If you are successful, you put them down by 2 scores and 'assure' a win. Going for an XP, the other team has a 50/50 chance to tie if they do get a TD. I'd say the upside play is the 2-point. I'm sure there's math to be done, but with the NFL parity these days, seems like upside may be the way to go.

 

[M. Flak]

But if you go up by 9, the other team has to get a TD AND a FG to beat you. It seals the deal.

 

[Rove!]

Conversion rate is historically < 50% so, in general, you kick

odds of other team tying:

go for 2: Odds of opposing TD * odds of 2 pt failure by you

kick: odds of opposing TD * odds of two point success by them

 

[jon_mx]

OK.....If You kick the extra point, you have basically 100% chance of being up by 8. The other team has to score a TD, let's assign a 50 percent probability to that. Then they have to convert the two-point conversion, let's assign a 50 percent probablity to that. Then they have to win in OT, let's assign another 50 percent probability to that. So by kicking the extra point, you will win 7/8th of the time.

No, you try for two. 50 percent of the time you basically sealed the victory. The other 50 percent of the time you end up by 7. The other team has a 50 percent chance of tying the game, and then a 50 percent chance of winning in OT. So again you will win 7/8th of the time under that scenario.

Note......The only real downside is that the other team knows they need to twice if you make the two if they are down by 9. They will change their play and make more aggressive plays including on-side kicks and conserve more clock. That probably is only a minor change, but does make a slight case to just go ahead and kick the extra point. It is basically a wash though assuming it is late in the game.

 

[msudaisy26]

and if you miss the 2 pointer and the other team scores you gave them the tie like 99.99 percent of the tie.

Edit: time to tie, auto correct sucks.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

The obvious error that people are making here is in saying that a 2 point conversion is a 50/50 proposition. It is a 46/54 propostion.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

 

[Sinn Fein]

Last two years, the conversion rate is 50% (46-92), with some teams significantly better than others. So, I don't think it's a bad idea, but might depend on the team.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

You kick the PAT 100 times out of 100. This isn't up for discussion.