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US economy thread (4 Viewers)

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I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?
Not sure if you want a serious answer but it depends on the province. In Ontario all restaurants buy through the province. So they can use what they have but can’t get more right now.

In total Ontario buys $1billion a year in beer, wine and liquor from the US.

Correction….bought.
 
Travel, vacations and cross border shopping has also been impacted. We cancelled two of our trips down south (was planning Summerfest in Milwaukee this spring) and replaced it with a trip to Bluesfest in Ottawa, with a side trip to Montreal and Quebec City). 2025 will be the first time in a decade I don’t come down to watch a couple of NFL games.

I run a vacation rental business near Disney and we have definitely seen and been affected by this.

Canadian travelers were one of our strongest sub-markets and those bookings have all but dried up over the last 4-6 weeks, and we've even gotten a handful of cancelations on people that were already booked.

They don't always say it directly but I can usually read between the lines.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?
Not sure if you want a serious answer but it depends on the province. In Ontario all restaurants buy through the province. So they can use what they have but can’t get more right now.

In total Ontario buys $1billion a year in beer, wine and liquor from the US.

Correction….bought.
Yea, was serious, thanks for the clarification. Sometime after May I'll probably resume travel to the great white North, need to know my options :D

Not afraid of drinking local though, Canadian beer in Canada is a treat.
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
 
Travel, vacations and cross border shopping has also been impacted. We cancelled two of our trips down south (was planning Summerfest in Milwaukee this spring) and replaced it with a trip to Bluesfest in Ottawa, with a side trip to Montreal and Quebec City). 2025 will be the first time in a decade I don’t come down to watch a couple of NFL games.

I run a vacation rental business near Disney and we have definitely seen and been affected by this.

Canadian travelers were one of our strongest sub-markets and those bookings have all but dried up over the last 4-6 weeks, and we've even gotten a handful of cancelations on people that were already booked.

They don't always say it directly but I can usually read between the lines.
At least will have less Ontario traffic on i-95 this year down to Disney ourselves. That's always a big portion of travelers.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?

The Keg! Man....that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Ate at the one up in Prince George, BC many many years ago. That was the highlight of Prince George for me.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?
Not sure if you want a serious answer but it depends on the province. In Ontario all restaurants buy through the province. So they can use what they have but can’t get more right now.

In total Ontario buys $1billion a year in beer, wine and liquor from the US.

Correction….bought.
Yea, was serious, thanks for the clarification. Sometime after May I'll probably resume travel to the great white North, need to know my options :D

Not afraid of drinking local though, Canadian beer in Canada is a treat.
Would definitely be the same for restaurants, including US owned.

We all have our favorites but you can get some amazing Canadian whiskeys and rums. I just bought a bottle of Moon Light Rum by Matt Lange and it is amazing. Pour three fingers over some ice, sit back and enjoy!
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?

The Keg! Man....that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Ate at the one up in Prince George, BC many many years ago. That was the highlight of Prince George for me.
Going out for a celebration Friday at the Keg before the Winnipeg Jets game against the Stars. They still do a great steak or prime.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?
Not sure if you want a serious answer but it depends on the province. In Ontario all restaurants buy through the province. So they can use what they have but can’t get more right now.

In total Ontario buys $1billion a year in beer, wine and liquor from the US.

Correction….bought.
Yea, was serious, thanks for the clarification. Sometime after May I'll probably resume travel to the great white North, need to know my options :D

Not afraid of drinking local though, Canadian beer in Canada is a treat.

I could sure go for an ice cold Molson!


I mean, after the work day, of course. :oldunsure:
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Lot of talk they are also changing up their rewards and travel credits and other negative changes too. They aren't any cheaper on airfare and now getting rid of their major differentiator. 6 months ago one of their executives said they did the analysis and dumping the free bag policy would cause them to lose more business than they would make in fees. So what did they do? They fired that executive and now are adding fees...
 
Love Southwest (no pun intended). Direct flight (Flt #1360, 0645 dep) from BWI to San Diego. Get into town just in time to get your bag, rental car, and drive to Mitch's for fish tacos. Then off to work!
 
I'm flying Spirit to Vegas. I'm just bringing what I need in a backpack. In fact, I never check a bag unless traveling with wife and kids.

They offered me a chance to pick my seat for a small fee...I caved and spent $20 to get a window seat up near the front. Depart off and hit the town running.
 
The saddest part of all this is that with China's imminent demographic collapse, we were in a perfect position to begin repatriating manufacturing to the US. That would have been good for everyone, most of all blue collar workers and unions.

But to do that effectively, we need strong partnerships with Canada and Mexico.

I'm going to miss things when China shuts down and no one has filled the breach.
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Lot of talk they are also changing up their rewards and travel credits and other negative changes too. They aren't any cheaper on airfare and now getting rid of their major differentiator. 6 months ago one of their executives said they did the analysis and dumping the free bag policy would cause them to lose more business than they would make in fees. So what did they do? They fired that executive and now are adding fees...
This is what happens with activist investors. Elliott is killing them. Southwest has been trending down after losing Kelleher/Kelly. They used to make their profits on the way they bought gas. They were truly a low cost airline. I've hated everything they've done the last several years. Their FF program was great when you got a credit for every leg you flew. Didn't matter the price. 16 credits, free RT. Now if you get one of their few cheaper fares these days you get almost zero points. So to me the only way Southwest is worth it is if you are flying for the company and booking business select. You will get decent points and now free bags. The fact you're going to have to pay for seats is another terrible move on their part. They will board differently and not turn planes around as fast. Service is slipping on most flights as well. They will never be the same. Herb is turning over in his grave.
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Lot of talk they are also changing up their rewards and travel credits and other negative changes too. They aren't any cheaper on airfare and now getting rid of their major differentiator. 6 months ago one of their executives said they did the analysis and dumping the free bag policy would cause them to lose more business than they would make in fees. So what did they do? They fired that executive and now are adding fees...
This is what happens with activist investors. Elliott is killing them. Southwest has been trending down after losing Kelleher/Kelly. They used to make their profits on the way they bought gas. They were truly a low cost airline. I've hated everything they've done the last several years. Their FF program was great when you got a credit for every leg you flew. Didn't matter the price. 16 credits, free RT. Now if you get one of their few cheaper fares these days you get almost zero points. So to me the only way Southwest is worth it is if you are flying for the company and booking business select. You will get decent points and now free bags. The fact you're going to have to pay for seats is another terrible move on their part. They will board differently and not turn planes around as fast. Service is slipping on most flights as well. They will never be the same. Herb is turning over in his grave.

Couldn't agree more with this. Growing up in Texas, this WAS the airline of choice (for flights in state) and once they spread their wings, remained so for many of us. They were fun, too. A little irreverent with the pre-flight routines, some light antics on the PA and my god, if you were a frequent flier, the DRINK COUPONS they'd mail out to you. My god, I used to have a desk drawer full of them and was THE most popular guy on board when I'd sit down with seats facing each other and break out the coupon book. Drinks on me!

Now they're just a soulless, joyless corporate giant who lost touch with what made them great and popular. I don't even consider them anymore for flights. I looked quickly at them for a flight to Vegas and it was much more expensive than Spirit and for why? I'm no longer valued by SWA and I'm getting any perks over Spirit, so why fly?
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?

The Keg! Man....that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Ate at the one up in Prince George, BC many many years ago. That was the highlight of Prince George for me.
Going out for a celebration Friday at the Keg before the Winnipeg Jets game against the Stars. They still do a great steak or prime.
the keg is so overrated
I try to avoid it all costs
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Lot of talk they are also changing up their rewards and travel credits and other negative changes too. They aren't any cheaper on airfare and now getting rid of their major differentiator. 6 months ago one of their executives said they did the analysis and dumping the free bag policy would cause them to lose more business than they would make in fees. So what did they do? They fired that executive and now are adding fees...
This is what happens with activist investors. Elliott is killing them. Southwest has been trending down after losing Kelleher/Kelly. They used to make their profits on the way they bought gas. They were truly a low cost airline. I've hated everything they've done the last several years. Their FF program was great when you got a credit for every leg you flew. Didn't matter the price. 16 credits, free RT. Now if you get one of their few cheaper fares these days you get almost zero points. So to me the only way Southwest is worth it is if you are flying for the company and booking business select. You will get decent points and now free bags. The fact you're going to have to pay for seats is another terrible move on their part. They will board differently and not turn planes around as fast. Service is slipping on most flights as well. They will never be the same. Herb is turning over in his grave.

Couldn't agree more with this. Growing up in Texas, this WAS the airline of choice (for flights in state) and once they spread their wings, remained so for many of us. They were fun, too. A little irreverent with the pre-flight routines, some light antics on the PA and my god, if you were a frequent flier, the DRINK COUPONS they'd mail out to you. My god, I used to have a desk drawer full of them and was THE most popular guy on board when I'd sit down with seats facing each other and break out the coupon book. Drinks on me!

Now they're just a soulless, joyless corporate giant who lost touch with what made them great and popular. I don't even consider them anymore for flights. I looked quickly at them for a flight to Vegas and it was much more expensive than Spirit and for why? I'm no longer valued by SWA and I'm getting any perks over Spirit, so why fly?

I'd forgotten about the backward facing seats!

I don't fly them much now but that's a good illustration of how things can change for business. You have to keep delivering value.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?

The Keg! Man....that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Ate at the one up in Prince George, BC many many years ago. That was the highlight of Prince George for me.
Going out for a celebration Friday at the Keg before the Winnipeg Jets game against the Stars. They still do a great steak or prime.
the keg is so overrated
I try to avoid it all costs
I've only eaten at one twice but thought the same. Thinking about it, not sure I've had a decent steak in Canada since I started traveling there. Next time I head up I'll have to ask for recomendations.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?

The Keg! Man....that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Ate at the one up in Prince George, BC many many years ago. That was the highlight of Prince George for me.
Going out for a celebration Friday at the Keg before the Winnipeg Jets game against the Stars. They still do a great steak or prime.
the keg is so overrated
I try to avoid it all costs
I've only eaten at one twice but thought the same. Thinking about it, not sure I've had a decent steak in Canada since I started traveling there. Next time I head up I'll have to ask for recomendations.
There is better than Keg for sure. Chop may be a step above and there is a place called Hy’s in Winnipeg that is much better but pricier.
 

I'd forgotten about the backward facing seats!
Oh, that's wild. I expect it on trains, but have never seen that on a plane (and I've flown a good bit).

And my wife would insta-puke if she was on a backwards seat on a flight. :x

Yes. It doesn't bother me but some people HATED it. I guess that's why they got rid of it.

I flew to Hawaii on United in January and I saw they still had backward facing seats in first class. Blew my mind to pay that much and have to face backwards! Wouldn’t bother me but my wife would lose it!
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Airlines are gonna airline.
I mean it's just another example of outside money-only buyer comes in, overpays for company, squeezes margins to cover debt they shouldn't have taken on but have to service and meet their IRR, and in doing so they destroy what made the asset attractive in the first place. We studied Southwest in depth once when I was in college and had the CEO come to our honors program for a day before we went and spent a day at their HQ too. Then in Bschool we did a study of them in comparison with JetBlue in the class of the professor who was the Chairman of JetBlue's board at the time.

Southwest was attractive because it was one price, no extra fees. They had a very easy cancellation and movement policy. They had a VERY STRONG culture from the moment you booked until you made it to your destination, throughout the entire experience. It was suuuuuuper customer oriented. They made boarding super easy and faster than everyone ele, allowing for faster turns and a unique through-city strategy where pax could stay on plane...

These things allowed them to price both aggressively AND at a higher margin. So they didn't even have to be "low cost" they were just "low stress" which people basically became ok to pay a premium for...but they ALSO had a lower cost base, so they could beat the other airlines on price AND margin. That's because:

Their fleet was 100% the exact same plane with the exact same configuration, which made pilots and maintenance and other crew in air and on ground) MUCH easier to train, it made parts easier to manage, it made maintenance more predictable and effective (everyone is an expert in the ONE physical asset you use)...so you needed fewer people, AND your company was more enjoyable to work for so you could pay them less.

This idiotic hedge fund is the definition of rent-seeking. What they're doing should be illegal and is an example of one of the very few regulations a market needs to protect it from what is functionally an 80s style corporate raider sucking money and providing no value. The only thing maybe worse here specifically is that poor management put the company in a position for this to happen anyway, so it is perhaps just an acceleration of recent mismanagement that may be tanking the company anyway. The management are the ones who first didn't keep up with tech to maintain a super low and efficient cost base, that dragged heels on a union negotiation and made working there les attractive, that did a poor job navigating COVID, and that tried to jump to a cutting edge plane instead of waiting for a reliable full fleet replacement model.
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Airlines are gonna airline.
I mean it's just another example of outside money-only buyer comes in, overpays for company, squeezes margins to cover debt they shouldn't have taken on but have to service and meet their IRR, and in doing so they destroy what made the asset attractive in the first place. We studied Southwest in depth once when I was in college and had the CEO come to our honors program for a day before we went and spent a day at their HQ too. Then in Bschool we did a study of them in comparison with JetBlue in the class of the professor who was the Chairman of JetBlue's board at the time.

Southwest was attractive because it was one price, no extra fees. They had a very easy cancellation and movement policy. They had a VERY STRONG culture from the moment you booked until you made it to your destination, throughout the entire experience. It was suuuuuuper customer oriented. They made boarding super easy and faster than everyone ele, allowing for faster turns and a unique through-city strategy where pax could stay on plane...

These things allowed them to price both aggressively AND at a higher margin. So they didn't even have to be "low cost" they were just "low stress" which people basically became ok to pay a premium for...but they ALSO had a lower cost base, so they could beat the other airlines on price AND margin. That's because:

Their fleet was 100% the exact same plane with the exact same configuration, which made pilots and maintenance and other crew in air and on ground) MUCH easier to train, it made parts easier to manage, it made maintenance more predictable and effective (everyone is an expert in the ONE physical asset you use)...so you needed fewer people, AND your company was more enjoyable to work for so you could pay them less.

This idiotic hedge fund is the definition of rent-seeking. What they're doing should be illegal and is an example of one of the very few regulations a market needs to protect it from what is functionally an 80s style corporate raider sucking money and providing no value. The only thing maybe worse here specifically is that poor management put the company in a position for this to happen anyway, so it is perhaps just an acceleration of recent mismanagement that may be tanking the company anyway. The management are the ones who first didn't keep up with tech to maintain a super low and efficient cost base, that dragged heels on a union negotiation and made working there les attractive, that did a poor job navigating COVID, and that tried to jump to a cutting edge plane instead of waiting for a reliable full fleet replacement model.

I didn't realize they'd sold.
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Airlines are gonna airline.
I mean it's just another example of outside money-only buyer comes in, overpays for company, squeezes margins to cover debt they shouldn't have taken on but have to service and meet their IRR, and in doing so they destroy what made the asset attractive in the first place. We studied Southwest in depth once when I was in college and had the CEO come to our honors program for a day before we went and spent a day at their HQ too. Then in Bschool we did a study of them in comparison with JetBlue in the class of the professor who was the Chairman of JetBlue's board at the time.

Southwest was attractive because it was one price, no extra fees. They had a very easy cancellation and movement policy. They had a VERY STRONG culture from the moment you booked until you made it to your destination, throughout the entire experience. It was suuuuuuper customer oriented. They made boarding super easy and faster than everyone ele, allowing for faster turns and a unique through-city strategy where pax could stay on plane...

These things allowed them to price both aggressively AND at a higher margin. So they didn't even have to be "low cost" they were just "low stress" which people basically became ok to pay a premium for...but they ALSO had a lower cost base, so they could beat the other airlines on price AND margin. That's because:

Their fleet was 100% the exact same plane with the exact same configuration, which made pilots and maintenance and other crew in air and on ground) MUCH easier to train, it made parts easier to manage, it made maintenance more predictable and effective (everyone is an expert in the ONE physical asset you use)...so you needed fewer people, AND your company was more enjoyable to work for so you could pay them less.

This idiotic hedge fund is the definition of rent-seeking. What they're doing should be illegal and is an example of one of the very few regulations a market needs to protect it from what is functionally an 80s style corporate raider sucking money and providing no value. The only thing maybe worse here specifically is that poor management put the company in a position for this to happen anyway, so it is perhaps just an acceleration of recent mismanagement that may be tanking the company anyway. The management are the ones who first didn't keep up with tech to maintain a super low and efficient cost base, that dragged heels on a union negotiation and made working there les attractive, that did a poor job navigating COVID, and that tried to jump to a cutting edge plane instead of waiting for a reliable full fleet replacement model.

I didn't realize they'd sold.
They aren't sold per se as they are publicly traded, but they're being forced into decisions by a Hedge Fund "activist investor" who bought somewhere between 10-20% of the company and then forced out the CEO and also replaced 6 board members (I think their board is 13?).
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Airlines are gonna airline.
I mean it's just another example of outside money-only buyer comes in, overpays for company, squeezes margins to cover debt they shouldn't have taken on but have to service and meet their IRR, and in doing so they destroy what made the asset attractive in the first place. We studied Southwest in depth once when I was in college and had the CEO come to our honors program for a day before we went and spent a day at their HQ too. Then in Bschool we did a study of them in comparison with JetBlue in the class of the professor who was the Chairman of JetBlue's board at the time.

Southwest was attractive because it was one price, no extra fees. They had a very easy cancellation and movement policy. They had a VERY STRONG culture from the moment you booked until you made it to your destination, throughout the entire experience. It was suuuuuuper customer oriented. They made boarding super easy and faster than everyone ele, allowing for faster turns and a unique through-city strategy where pax could stay on plane...

These things allowed them to price both aggressively AND at a higher margin. So they didn't even have to be "low cost" they were just "low stress" which people basically became ok to pay a premium for...but they ALSO had a lower cost base, so they could beat the other airlines on price AND margin. That's because:

Their fleet was 100% the exact same plane with the exact same configuration, which made pilots and maintenance and other crew in air and on ground) MUCH easier to train, it made parts easier to manage, it made maintenance more predictable and effective (everyone is an expert in the ONE physical asset you use)...so you needed fewer people, AND your company was more enjoyable to work for so you could pay them less.

This idiotic hedge fund is the definition of rent-seeking. What they're doing should be illegal and is an example of one of the very few regulations a market needs to protect it from what is functionally an 80s style corporate raider sucking money and providing no value. The only thing maybe worse here specifically is that poor management put the company in a position for this to happen anyway, so it is perhaps just an acceleration of recent mismanagement that may be tanking the company anyway. The management are the ones who first didn't keep up with tech to maintain a super low and efficient cost base, that dragged heels on a union negotiation and made working there les attractive, that did a poor job navigating COVID, and that tried to jump to a cutting edge plane instead of waiting for a reliable full fleet replacement model.

I didn't realize they'd sold.
They aren't sold per se as they are publicly traded, but they're being forced into decisions by a Hedge Fund "activist investor" who bought somewhere between 10-20% of the company and then forced out the CEO and also replaced 6 board members (I think their board is 13?).

Those venture capitalists ruin everything.

Toys R Us was profitable and was a great store. Venture capitalist buys it with crazy interest terms and couldn't afford the interest and we have an iconic store ruined.

Kids today don't have an awesome to store because of them.

We are going to be missing an awesome airline 10-20 years from now because of the same reason, greedy people ruining a good business.
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Airlines are gonna airline.
I mean it's just another example of outside money-only buyer comes in, overpays for company, squeezes margins to cover debt they shouldn't have taken on but have to service and meet their IRR, and in doing so they destroy what made the asset attractive in the first place. We studied Southwest in depth once when I was in college and had the CEO come to our honors program for a day before we went and spent a day at their HQ too. Then in Bschool we did a study of them in comparison with JetBlue in the class of the professor who was the Chairman of JetBlue's board at the time.

Southwest was attractive because it was one price, no extra fees. They had a very easy cancellation and movement policy. They had a VERY STRONG culture from the moment you booked until you made it to your destination, throughout the entire experience. It was suuuuuuper customer oriented. They made boarding super easy and faster than everyone ele, allowing for faster turns and a unique through-city strategy where pax could stay on plane...

These things allowed them to price both aggressively AND at a higher margin. So they didn't even have to be "low cost" they were just "low stress" which people basically became ok to pay a premium for...but they ALSO had a lower cost base, so they could beat the other airlines on price AND margin. That's because:

Their fleet was 100% the exact same plane with the exact same configuration, which made pilots and maintenance and other crew in air and on ground) MUCH easier to train, it made parts easier to manage, it made maintenance more predictable and effective (everyone is an expert in the ONE physical asset you use)...so you needed fewer people, AND your company was more enjoyable to work for so you could pay them less.

This idiotic hedge fund is the definition of rent-seeking. What they're doing should be illegal and is an example of one of the very few regulations a market needs to protect it from what is functionally an 80s style corporate raider sucking money and providing no value. The only thing maybe worse here specifically is that poor management put the company in a position for this to happen anyway, so it is perhaps just an acceleration of recent mismanagement that may be tanking the company anyway. The management are the ones who first didn't keep up with tech to maintain a super low and efficient cost base, that dragged heels on a union negotiation and made working there les attractive, that did a poor job navigating COVID, and that tried to jump to a cutting edge plane instead of waiting for a reliable full fleet replacement model.

I didn't realize they'd sold.
They aren't sold per se as they are publicly traded, but they're being forced into decisions by a Hedge Fund "activist investor" who bought somewhere between 10-20% of the company and then forced out the CEO and also replaced 6 board members (I think their board is 13?).

Those venture capitalists ruin everything.

Toys R Us was profitable and was a great store. Venture capitalist buys it with crazy interest terms and couldn't afford the interest and we have an iconic store ruined.

Kids today don't have an awesome to store because of them.

We are going to be missing an awesome airline 10-20 years from now because of the same reason, greedy people ruining a good business.
Just so we're all aligned, not venture capitalists we are talking about. Private equity and hedge fund activism is what we're talking about about.

And there's basically always two steps:

1. Management does a poor job running company, opening the door for either a turnaround or a stripping for parts and squeezing ever last drop by making company less valuable and vulnerable to purchase as a result

2. Then a PE fund (I think Bain actually bought Toys R Us) or an activist investor can do the squeezing or choose to do a turnaround. They seem to very regularly choose the squeezing because they are subject to auction winners curse and very often overpay for their ownership/stake

Venture capital is the people who fund startups. Different group entirely.
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.

Man.....thanks for the 1st person account. Crazy.

Question: who is this supposed to be good for exactly?
:zzzip:
 
Southwest Airlines announces they will start charging for bags, stock pops 15% instantly (down from there since then with the broader market), if anyone was wondering why things are still more expensive.
Airlines are gonna airline.
I mean it's just another example of outside money-only buyer comes in, overpays for company, squeezes margins to cover debt they shouldn't have taken on but have to service and meet their IRR, and in doing so they destroy what made the asset attractive in the first place. We studied Southwest in depth once when I was in college and had the CEO come to our honors program for a day before we went and spent a day at their HQ too. Then in Bschool we did a study of them in comparison with JetBlue in the class of the professor who was the Chairman of JetBlue's board at the time.

Southwest was attractive because it was one price, no extra fees. They had a very easy cancellation and movement policy. They had a VERY STRONG culture from the moment you booked until you made it to your destination, throughout the entire experience. It was suuuuuuper customer oriented. They made boarding super easy and faster than everyone ele, allowing for faster turns and a unique through-city strategy where pax could stay on plane...

These things allowed them to price both aggressively AND at a higher margin. So they didn't even have to be "low cost" they were just "low stress" which people basically became ok to pay a premium for...but they ALSO had a lower cost base, so they could beat the other airlines on price AND margin. That's because:

Their fleet was 100% the exact same plane with the exact same configuration, which made pilots and maintenance and other crew in air and on ground) MUCH easier to train, it made parts easier to manage, it made maintenance more predictable and effective (everyone is an expert in the ONE physical asset you use)...so you needed fewer people, AND your company was more enjoyable to work for so you could pay them less.

This idiotic hedge fund is the definition of rent-seeking. What they're doing should be illegal and is an example of one of the very few regulations a market needs to protect it from what is functionally an 80s style corporate raider sucking money and providing no value. The only thing maybe worse here specifically is that poor management put the company in a position for this to happen anyway, so it is perhaps just an acceleration of recent mismanagement that may be tanking the company anyway. The management are the ones who first didn't keep up with tech to maintain a super low and efficient cost base, that dragged heels on a union negotiation and made working there les attractive, that did a poor job navigating COVID, and that tried to jump to a cutting edge plane instead of waiting for a reliable full fleet replacement model.

I didn't realize they'd sold.
They aren't sold per se as they are publicly traded, but they're being forced into decisions by a Hedge Fund "activist investor" who bought somewhere between 10-20% of the company and then forced out the CEO and also replaced 6 board members (I think their board is 13?).

Those venture capitalists ruin everything.

Toys R Us was profitable and was a great store. Venture capitalist buys it with crazy interest terms and couldn't afford the interest and we have an iconic store ruined.

Kids today don't have an awesome to store because of them.

We are going to be missing an awesome airline 10-20 years from now because of the same reason, greedy people ruining a good business.
Just so we're all aligned, not venture capitalists we are talking about. Private equity and hedge fund activism is what we're talking about about.

And there's basically always two steps:

1. Management does a poor job running company, opening the door for either a turnaround or a stripping for parts and squeezing ever last drop by making company less valuable and vulnerable to purchase as a result

2. Then a PE fund (I think Bain actually bought Toys R Us) or an activist investor can do the squeezing or choose to do a turnaround. They seem to very regularly choose the squeezing because they are subject to auction winners curse and very often overpay for their ownership/stake

Venture capital is the people who fund startups. Different group entirely.
The other piece missing here when discussing PE is the position of the business being bought in the marketplace when it’s purchased. The “why” it’s bought(sold) in other words. If the business is in the growth phase PE can be fantastic as it often funds and or supports, via resources, the growth.

If it isn’t in that phase then how the PE gets it ROI certainly opens up the avenues discussed above which can become predatory.

Point being, PE doesn’t automatically mean bad. It’s also helping drive a ton of economic growth.
 

Ontario agrees to suspend electricity surcharge ahead of talks with US​

Well that's good news. Ontario's Premier announced the surcharge and asked for talks with the US, the US retaliated by threatening to raise tariffs, the the Premier talked to the US Treasury Secretary, and they've set up a meeting. Sounds like the Premier got what he wanted and that the talks might benefit both the US and Canada.

"The two said they would meet in person in Washington on Thursday to discuss a renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement ahead of reciprocal tariffs set to go into effect on April 2."
 
The threats and bluster and chaos are bringing Canadian and American leaders together to "negotiate". What exactly are they negotiating? There is a free trade agreement that was signed less than 4 years ago. Are the tariffs just using threats to extort concessions from Canada outside of that agreement?
 
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?

The Keg! Man....that's a name I haven't heard in a long time. Ate at the one up in Prince George, BC many many years ago. That was the highlight of Prince George for me.
Going out for a celebration Friday at the Keg before the Winnipeg Jets game against the Stars. They still do a great steak or prime.
the keg is so overrated
I try to avoid it all costs

Best prime rib in the game. most consistent as well. Pricey, yes... But between their bread, prime rib, shrimp cocktail and billy miner pie... Nah, this is a meal fit for a king (and I live in France, and make the Keg a mandatory stop every time Im back in Canada)
 
I also want to remind everyone that the stock market is not the totality of the economy. Employment rates matter. Interest rates matter. The strength of the USD matter. Economic growth in various industries matter. Inflation matters.

Sure the stock market has taken a 7% haircut, but how is that affecting the people? Something like half of the US population has no investments other than a house and many don't have that. How does tariffs affect them?
 
How does tariffs affect them?

Do these people do groceries? Do they require food and/or electricity and gas?
Super dumbed down version - if/when housing costs go up due to lumber/aluminum/mineral costs going up 25-50%, you think landlords aren't going to increase rent to jive with the housing market?

*** I want to be clear, I'm in no way acting like Canada is the superior power here, I'm not a moron. But they picked a battle that had absolutely NO reason to be had, for either country. And it will affect BOTH countries. We may be small, but we have power (literally and figuratively). When he says he wants us as a 51st state, it's for good reason. You need what we have. badly. Just as we need you.
 
if/when housing costs go up due to lumber/aluminum/mineral costs going up 25-50%, you think landlords aren't going to increase rent to jive with the housing market?
Of course that will happen. But if it's not reflected in prices being paid right now, will the rank and file people care? Or are they willing to take short term pain to extract concessions from their neighbors? Will those changes to the free trade agreement help most people or only a small slice of business owners?
 
if/when housing costs go up due to lumber/aluminum/mineral costs going up 25-50%, you think landlords aren't going to increase rent to jive with the housing market?
Of course that will happen. But if it's not reflected in prices being paid right now, will the rank and file people care? Or are they willing to take short term pain to extract concessions from their neighbors? Will those changes to the free trade agreement help most people or only a small slice of business owners?

I don't live in the US so I can't confirm this... But plenty of social media personalities have been grocery hauling and showing the increase in costs in just a matter of weeks. Pre-pause, dealerships showing trucks being marked up from 80k to 100k. Gas up too... And this is just on threat/speculation.

As soon as the tariffs are actually implemented (and imo, they won't be, on either side) the real spike would be immediate. No one from the top is going to lose money, so that gets passed down the chain to the end consumer.
 
You need what we have. badly. Just as we need you.
I still think the real reason for this trade war / 51st state bluster is the looming opening of the northern sea route. It's the same reason the current administration covets Greenland. With the climate going as it is (and this is not a political statement, but a fact of life), the northern sea route is projected to be open between 2030 - 2040. It's a major economic shipping lane, and will have major military implications with Russia in control just across the pole from both Canada and Greenland. There's also the northwest passage, which is projected to open this century. Control of these territories is a major strategic advantage in the long-term.
 
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