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US economy thread (2 Viewers)
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BeTheMatch
Footballguy
Hadn't heard anything about this. Can't believe this hasn't been stopped yet.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
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Desert_Power
Footballguy
"Government hiding foreclosures. Over 1,000,000 loans in default." would be scary. Of course, this creator's own links back to the HUD website shows that he is actually talking about delinquency rates instead of default rates. I don't think I'm hiring Mr Reventure Consulting with a mistake like that.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
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Was interested enough to find this to understand what is going with the trend, last two bullets interesting:
- The non-seasonally adjusted seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 1.68 percent. It increased 13 basis points from last quarter and increased 16 basis points from last year. The seriously delinquent rate increased 5 basis points for conventional loans, increased 49 basis points for FHA loans, and increased 32 basis points for VA loans from the previous quarter. Compared to a year ago, the seriously delinquent rate increased 2 basis points for conventional loans, increased 70 basis points for FHA loans and increased 57 basis points for VA loans.
- The five states with the largest quarterly increases in their overall delinquency rate were: Florida (99 basis points), South Carolina (59 basis points), North Carolina (40 basis points), Georgia (39 basis points), and Louisiana (32 basis points).
Thanks for the thoughtful post.
We've had posters who aren't here any longer but we've always had that. It's the common ebb and flow of interest. Some people find other spots they like more. Some have life changes or interest changes.
We've been doing this long enough that, unfortunately, we even have several great posters no longer here because they've passed on. And that sucks.
We have a few posters that have been suspended every year. But that sucks too. It's always the common theme in every thread that people don't want the thread locked and instead we should just suspend the posters. That sounds good in theory until it becomes a negative that we "force" people to leave. Suspending people also sucks for business and makes my email box pretty ugly.
I do think there's a lot of truth in the maturation of friends thing. When you have any group for 20+ years, the risk of people getting crossways with one another increases. Just as a function of opportunity. We see that in our Footballguys discord that's just a few years old. For the most part, everyone is chill but some of that's because they've only been in the group a short time and haven't had the opportunity to get mad at another poster.
I do feel certain not allowing the political toxicity was the right move and that's not changing. I think we do a decent job of trying to discuss things in the gray area like economy and Ukraine. I've said several times how much I appreciate the folks there leading with a news focus and not the snarky shots.
And thanks for the kind words. It does take work to maintain. For us but also for y'all. Most of the guiding comes from posters here nudging things on track. Thank y'all for that.
All in all, I love our forums. People have been saying they're dead or dying for 20 years now but the traffic says otherwise. Sure, there are lots more opportunities for this kind of discussion now than there was 20 years ago but I love the depth of knowledge of this group. And the activity and volume of traffic.
Thank y'all.
fatness
Footballguy
That guy has been somewhat of a doomsayer for years now and has predicted crashes in numerous housing markets.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
- YouTube
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https://www.youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting/videos
McBokonon
Footballguy
That guy has been somewhat of a doomsayer for years now and has predicted crashes in numerous housing markets.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
- YouTube
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https://www.youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting/videos
Yeah, within the first minute I knew not to trust his interpretation of events. Whenever these influencers say stuff meant to stir emotions or imply only they know the real truth, like this story was “EXPOSED” or something similar, I know not to take their word for anything.
Now, if they do provide some kind of source, like he did with the WSJ article he flashed for a millisecond, I’ll go check it out. Here’s the article: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bidens-...a1974?st=CgPEWu&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Appreciate you sharing a copy of that opinion piece. I think the comparison of debt-income ratio with subrime is a bit clunky but the data does point to where risks could be within the system.That guy has been somewhat of a doomsayer for years now and has predicted crashes in numerous housing markets.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting/videos
Yeah, within the first minute I knew not to trust his interpretation of events. Whenever these influencers say stuff meant to stir emotions or imply only they know the real truth, like this story was “EXPOSED” or something similar, I know not to take their word for anything.
Now, if they do provide some kind of source, like he did with the WSJ article he flashed for a millisecond, I’ll go check it out. Here’s the article: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bidens-...a1974?st=CgPEWu&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Sand
Footballguy
I'm much more worried about commercial real estate. RTO is a small balm, but there is still a ton of empty space and high rates (CRE is almost always floating rate). Lots of resets coming up. I don't think it's a bomb, but it sure is a drag.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
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fatness
Footballguy
Thanks for that link to the WSJ opinion piece. It's a pretty crappy piece. It starts reciting events from before 2007 until now and balls them up into one supposed emergency.That guy has been somewhat of a doomsayer for years now and has predicted crashes in numerous housing markets.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting/videos
Yeah, within the first minute I knew not to trust his interpretation of events. Whenever these influencers say stuff meant to stir emotions or imply only they know the real truth, like this story was “EXPOSED” or something similar, I know not to take their word for anything.
Now, if they do provide some kind of source, like he did with the WSJ article he flashed for a millisecond, I’ll go check it out. Here’s the article: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bidens-...a1974?st=CgPEWu&reflink=article_copyURL_share
It blames the FHA for high home prices today. And this is a combination of political hit, wishful thinking, and bad understanding of effects:
Foreclosures are described as a good thing in the video.
Let's look at various patterns of people falling behind in their mortgage payments, in number of payments they're behind over the course of a year.
0,0,0,1,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,
This is someone who took a financial hit (loss of job, illness, whatever) and then stabilized at a level that allowed them to hold even with their payment rate. There's no national interest in making them lose their home.
0,1,2,3,4,5,5,4,4,3,2,1
This is someone who took a deep financial hit for awhile but once recovered was able to start catching up on their payments. There's no national interest in making them lose their home.
0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
They're going to lose their home. And there are already procedures in place to allow that to happen (please correct me if I'm wrong, I don't mean to be).
I do not know why the video thinks that foreclosing on homes in all 3 of those patterns is a good idea, or why the 3rd one can't already happen.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
High home prices are driven by expanding demand without increasing supply. The boomers aren't selling their homes but their kids want to buy them, that's typical but these generations are massive demographics. Coupled with a severe lack of home building in the 2000s and 2010s means there simply isn't enough stock. Finally, high density housing is nearly universally opposed and isn't the desired type for many buyers. Thus prices of SFH have continually gone up.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I think the allegation is this FHA borrower would be able to modify and have those late payments added to the end of the mortgage.
Max Power
Footballguy
Just the pick me up I needed on a Monday morning.
Thanks for that link to the WSJ opinion piece. It's a pretty crappy piece. It starts reciting events from before 2007 until now and balls them up into one supposed emergency.That guy has been somewhat of a doomsayer for years now and has predicted crashes in numerous housing markets.This unwinding will definitely be an economic headwind.
- YouTube
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/@ReventureConsulting/videos
Yeah, within the first minute I knew not to trust his interpretation of events. Whenever these influencers say stuff meant to stir emotions or imply only they know the real truth, like this story was “EXPOSED” or something similar, I know not to take their word for anything.
Now, if they do provide some kind of source, like he did with the WSJ article he flashed for a millisecond, I’ll go check it out. Here’s the article: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bidens-...a1974?st=CgPEWu&reflink=article_copyURL_share
It blames the FHA for high home prices today. And this is a combination of political hit, wishful thinking, and bad understanding of effects:
Foreclosures are described as a good thing in the video.
Let's look at various patterns of people falling behind in their mortgage payments, in number of payments they're behind over the course of a year.
0,0,0,1,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,
This is someone who took a financial hit (loss of job, illness, whatever) and then stabilized at a level that allowed them to hold even with their payment rate. There's no national interest in making them lose their home.
0,1,2,3,4,5,5,4,4,3,2,1
This is someone who took a deep financial hit for awhile but once recovered was able to start catching up on their payments. There's no national interest in making them lose their home.
0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12
They're going to lose their home. And there are already procedures in place to allow that to happen (please correct me if I'm wrong, I don't mean to be).
I do not know why the video thinks that foreclosing on homes in all 3 of those patterns is a good idea, or why the 3rd one can't already happen.
Way better to skip the biased opinion pieces altogether. That starts the ripping of the article and calling things crappy and it spirals down to PSF stuff.
Please keep the focus on actual news here. Thanks.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Sometimes people post opinion pieces without realizing they’re posting opinion pieces. The followup discussion is helpful to make that distinction clear. The followup discussion could do without the adjectives you highlight.
Agreed. Please consider closely what links people post.
Discussion can help in theory but for opinion pieces, it usually goes like this calling it crap and then it spirals down. That was the PSF formula.
Best if we can avoid the biased opinion pieces and stay with facts. Thanks.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
More homes are being bought as investments also, adding to Demand.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Sorry, by "pretty soon" , I meant today.
Today?
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
S and P is down almost 3% today
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Nasdaq down almost 15% from its high in three weeks. Whoosh.
General Malaise
Footballguy
In Ontario, Doug Ford isn't messing around. They've been taking US spirits and wines off their shelves entirely.
Link: https://www.ctvnews.ca/toronto/arti...act-the-spirits-industry-an-expert-weighs-in/
General Malaise
Footballguy
MoneyWatch
Edited By Anne Marie Lee
Ontario, Canada's most populous province, is adding a 25% surcharge to all electricity exports sent to the U.S. as part of retaliation against the Trump administration's tariffs on Canadian products.
The 25% surcharge will be effective as of March 10, and will affect consumers and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota and New York, the province said in a Monday statement. The new fee will add as much as $400,000 Canadian dollars ($277,000) in daily costs for 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses, it added.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford estimated it will add about CA$100, or $69 a month, to the bills of each American affected.
Ontario says it's tacking on a 25% surcharge to electricity exports to the U.S.
By Aimee PicchiEdited By Anne Marie Lee
Ontario, Canada's most populous province, is adding a 25% surcharge to all electricity exports sent to the U.S. as part of retaliation against the Trump administration's tariffs on Canadian products.
The 25% surcharge will be effective as of March 10, and will affect consumers and businesses in Michigan, Minnesota and New York, the province said in a Monday statement. The new fee will add as much as $400,000 Canadian dollars ($277,000) in daily costs for 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses, it added.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford estimated it will add about CA$100, or $69 a month, to the bills of each American affected.
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fatness
Footballguy
I know both Kentucky Senators and the Kentucky Governor have appealed to Ontario to put their bourbon back on the shelves. And the Kentucky Distillers Association says the trade war is really going to hurt.
But I don't have any first-hand information so take that to the border, bromigo.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
Sounds like a good buying opportunity!
Sand
Footballguy
I've been buying Enron and Lehman for years. It's gonna pay off one of these days.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Liquors are uniquely positioned to get absolutely destroyed by tariffs. Food as well, to some extent. Because many of them are immovable from a production standpoint.
You aren't going to create more American jobs if you tax champagne - champagne is only made in Champagne, France. Islay Scotch is only made in Scotland.
Maaaaaaybe you get more California sparkling or bourbon sales, but for the most part these are not super substitute-able goods.
So I'm kind of trying to make sure we are stocked on liquor and wine right now lol. See if we can wait this out.
You aren't going to create more American jobs if you tax champagne - champagne is only made in Champagne, France. Islay Scotch is only made in Scotland.
Maaaaaaybe you get more California sparkling or bourbon sales, but for the most part these are not super substitute-able goods.
So I'm kind of trying to make sure we are stocked on liquor and wine right now lol. See if we can wait this out.
I've no doubt there are plenty of US Citizens cheering for Canada on this and other things. But please let's not turn this back into the PSF if this thread is to surive.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
We have a bunch of WhatsApp threads with my guys. Fantasy football thread. Our annual Ryder Cup golf tourney. Other trips we take. One for a band that some of our guys play in. Politics started creeping in. Guys couldn’t help themselves. Started a politics what’s app thread. Thought it would be a cluster. But it lets guys say their piece without polluting other threads. Actually has worked. Maybe a FBG politics thread where it isn’t as strictly moderated is the play. If it gets testy so be it. Put a warning message that it’s not for the thin skinned and let em go at it. Otherwise people will find a way to weave in politics where it’s not wanted. They can’t resist
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
I can confirm that all US alcohol has been either completely removed from all shelves here in Manitoba and hearing from friends and family in many others provinces, the same is true across Canada. If you go into stores you will find Canadian made products completely sold out and shelves of US products fully stocked. This includes dry goods, as well as vegetables and fruit that the stores have on at drastically reduced prices. I accidentally bought some US asparagus today and my wife almost lost it on me. This boycott is a serious thing up here and could lead to a permanent change in how we shop.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Hoping at least for a silver lining of more good bourbon on the shelves around here.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Man.....thanks for the 1st person account. Crazy.
Question: who is this supposed to be good for exactly?
The uncertainty isn't good for anyone.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Might have to short the domestic distillers.
Nugget
Footballguy
I’d think it would be good for Canadiens. It would be like a buy American campaign here.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I know.
I fear my question might also derail the thread so I'll bow out.
Wish I studied more economics in school. Be curious the ideology behind this. The history too.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
The thinking is it will hurt American sales and increase sales of Canadian businesses (and to a lesser extent Mexican and European businesses).
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
I’m trying not to add any opinion or commentary … just telling you the facts as I’m seeing them. I’m 55 in a few weeks and never seen/felt this type of negativity from Canadians towards our neighbours in my lifetime. It is beyond crazy, bizarre, sad.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
Travel, vacations and cross border shopping has also been impacted. We cancelled two of our trips down south (was planning Summerfest in Milwaukee this spring) and replaced it with a trip to Bluesfest in Ottawa, with a side trip to Montreal and Quebec City). 2025 will be the first time in a decade I don’t come down to watch a couple of NFL games.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I was there a couple weeks ago. Things hadn’t gotten bad yet. Despite that, my Canadian co-worker didn’t like my idea to run around the steakhouse we were at singing God Bless America.
It will be interesting to see how all the tariff stuff plays out the next few months.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
Provincial premiers seem to be targeting their tariffs and other measures towards certain states.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
Agreed and good decision to hold off on the singing.
When groups of us went down to Moondance in Minnesota, we would get along great with the Yanks and sing GBA with them. We’d walk around in our Canada gear and usually bring a few flats of Canadian beer to some of the regulars we met the years before. Good times!
fatness
Footballguy
Besides the liquor removal from shelves, Ontario's premier put a 25% tariff on electric power sent to the US. And if US tariff threats increase he's threatening to cut off all Ontario power to 3 nearby states (Minnesota, Michigan, and NY). Besides raising prices for power in those states and losing money for Canada, there are electric grids that cross the border that could be problematic for both countries. Quebec is considering cutting power exports to the US as well. This isn't good for anyone.
Atomic Punk
Footballguy
Agreed completely. There are still a lot of other cards to be played, including oil, water and potash. None of this is good.
beer 30
Footballguy
Same for restaurants? If I hit up a Keg, can I still get a Bulleit on the rocks or nah?
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Market has you beat...Brown Forman (Jack Daniels) was at a multiyear low in early Feb (bounced since then). They better not take my tequila.
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