TheMathNinja
Footballguy
I haven't yet found an article on this, but I'm wondering why D/ST are so undervalued in drafts compared to what their Value-Based Drafting numbers would indicate. Since most leagues start a single D/ST, as well as a single TE and QB, I'll use TE and QB as baselines for comparison.
For a 12-team league, using the 12th starter as the baseline and standard fantasy scoring (1 pt per 25 yds, 4 pts per TD), the value added for QB's and TE's looked like this:
Drew Brees: 337..........98 pts added // Jimmy Graham: 144.....55 pts added
Tom Brady: 329...........90 pts added // Rob Gronkowski: 139....50 pts added
Aaron Rodgers: 329....90 pts added // Tony Gonzalez: 135......46 pts added
Cam Newton: 309........70 pts added // Heath Miller: 125..........36 pts added
Peyton Manning: 304...65 pts added // Jason Witten: 115.........26 pts added
Robert Griffin III: 304....65 pts added // Greg Olsen: 107..........18 pts added
Matt Ryan: 291............52 pts added // Dennis Pitta: 103.........14 pts added
Tony Romo: 271.........32 pts added // Owen Daniels: 100......11 pts added
Andrew Luck: 264........25 pts added // Kyle Rudolph: 99.........10 pts added
Matt Stafford: 263........24 pts added // Brandon Myers: 97........8 pts added
Russell Wilson: 259.....20 pts added // Jermaine Gresham: 94..5 pts added
Andy Dalton: 239........0 pts added // Antonio Gates: 89.........0 pts added
Common drafting practices roughly follow these VBD results, i.e. a QB or TE who is expected to add about 50 points is taken in the 5th or 6th round in a 12-team snake, or valued around $25 in an auction. What still confuses me is how this pattern doesn't seem to come close to holding true for the D/ST position. Here are last year's results:
Bears D/ST: 212...........90 pts added
Broncos D/ST: 186.......64 pts added
Seahawks D/ST: 172....50 pts added
Bengals D/ST: 160.......38 pts added
Chargers D/ST: 159.....37 pts added
Patriots D/ST: 149........27 pts added
Texans D/ST: 147.........25 pts added
49ers D/ST: 146...........24 pts added
Rams D/ST: 134...........12 pts added
Cardinals D/ST: 131......9 pts added
Vikings D/ST: 123..........1 pt added
Steelers D/ST: 122........0 pts added
Yes, in last year's draft, you would have been wise to take the Bears D/ST right between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. This year, I see most people projecting the Seahawks D/ST to be the best; ESPN is projecting 171 points, which would be 53 pts added over their prediction of 118 for the 12th best team (San Diego). My question is this: why, then, is Seattle currently valued at $5 in ESPN auctions and not at $25, where we would expect them to be for such value? Why are they being selected on average in the 9th round in preseason fantasy drafts so far?
If Defenses didn't repeat production with regularity year-over-year (much like kickers...though I think there's value to be had there as well), I could maybe see waiting on them. But though I haven't crunched the hard data for it, my impression is that Defenses are only slightly more volatile in production than QB's and TE's, if at all. And yet, I don't see people gobbling up the Seattle D at the same time as Matt Ryan.
A move like taking the top defense in the 5th round or spending $25 on them would get you some pretty funny looks in most leagues, but this is exactly what VBD would have you do. Why hasn't this caught on yet? D/ST remains the position to get the most value in every draft I've ever participated in; I often take my 2nd defense before most players take their first.
I'd love your insights on this one, sharks. Because I've been feeling a bit baffled on this one for some time.
For a 12-team league, using the 12th starter as the baseline and standard fantasy scoring (1 pt per 25 yds, 4 pts per TD), the value added for QB's and TE's looked like this:
Drew Brees: 337..........98 pts added // Jimmy Graham: 144.....55 pts added
Tom Brady: 329...........90 pts added // Rob Gronkowski: 139....50 pts added
Aaron Rodgers: 329....90 pts added // Tony Gonzalez: 135......46 pts added
Cam Newton: 309........70 pts added // Heath Miller: 125..........36 pts added
Peyton Manning: 304...65 pts added // Jason Witten: 115.........26 pts added
Robert Griffin III: 304....65 pts added // Greg Olsen: 107..........18 pts added
Matt Ryan: 291............52 pts added // Dennis Pitta: 103.........14 pts added
Tony Romo: 271.........32 pts added // Owen Daniels: 100......11 pts added
Andrew Luck: 264........25 pts added // Kyle Rudolph: 99.........10 pts added
Matt Stafford: 263........24 pts added // Brandon Myers: 97........8 pts added
Russell Wilson: 259.....20 pts added // Jermaine Gresham: 94..5 pts added
Andy Dalton: 239........0 pts added // Antonio Gates: 89.........0 pts added
Common drafting practices roughly follow these VBD results, i.e. a QB or TE who is expected to add about 50 points is taken in the 5th or 6th round in a 12-team snake, or valued around $25 in an auction. What still confuses me is how this pattern doesn't seem to come close to holding true for the D/ST position. Here are last year's results:
Bears D/ST: 212...........90 pts added
Broncos D/ST: 186.......64 pts added
Seahawks D/ST: 172....50 pts added
Bengals D/ST: 160.......38 pts added
Chargers D/ST: 159.....37 pts added
Patriots D/ST: 149........27 pts added
Texans D/ST: 147.........25 pts added
49ers D/ST: 146...........24 pts added
Rams D/ST: 134...........12 pts added
Cardinals D/ST: 131......9 pts added
Vikings D/ST: 123..........1 pt added
Steelers D/ST: 122........0 pts added
Yes, in last year's draft, you would have been wise to take the Bears D/ST right between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. This year, I see most people projecting the Seahawks D/ST to be the best; ESPN is projecting 171 points, which would be 53 pts added over their prediction of 118 for the 12th best team (San Diego). My question is this: why, then, is Seattle currently valued at $5 in ESPN auctions and not at $25, where we would expect them to be for such value? Why are they being selected on average in the 9th round in preseason fantasy drafts so far?
If Defenses didn't repeat production with regularity year-over-year (much like kickers...though I think there's value to be had there as well), I could maybe see waiting on them. But though I haven't crunched the hard data for it, my impression is that Defenses are only slightly more volatile in production than QB's and TE's, if at all. And yet, I don't see people gobbling up the Seattle D at the same time as Matt Ryan.
A move like taking the top defense in the 5th round or spending $25 on them would get you some pretty funny looks in most leagues, but this is exactly what VBD would have you do. Why hasn't this caught on yet? D/ST remains the position to get the most value in every draft I've ever participated in; I often take my 2nd defense before most players take their first.
I'd love your insights on this one, sharks. Because I've been feeling a bit baffled on this one for some time.