Vegas has spoken... (1 Viewer)

[Harry Beanbag]

Seems like Vegas likes San Diego to be the next Super Bowl champ. Feel free to weigh in on the overrated and underrated based on how well the suits in Las Vegas think 2007 will shake out. Odds are according to Vegasinsider.com

ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLII

San Diego Chargers 9/2

Indianapolis Colts 6/1

Chicago Bears 6/1

New England Patriots 9/1

Cincinnati Bengals 12/1

New Orleans Saints 12/1

Baltimore Ravens 14/1

Seattle Seahawks 15/1

Dallas Cowboys 18/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 18/1

Philadelphia Eagles 20/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 20/1

Carolina Panthers 25/1

Denver Broncos 25/1

New York Jets 28/1

New York Giants 30/1

Kansas City Chiefs 40/1

St. Louis Rams 40/1

Tennessee Titans 45/1

Minnesota Vikings 50/1

Washington Redskins 50/1

Buffalo Bills 60/1

San Francisco 49ers 60/1

Atlanta Falcons 75/1

Green Bay Packers 75/1

Miami Dolphins 75/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75/1

Arizona Cardinals 100/1

Houston Texans 100/1

Cleveland Browns 125/1

Detroit Lions 125/1

Oakland Raiders 150/1

ODDS TO WIN THE 2007-08 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

San Diego Chargers 5/2

Indianapolis Colts 3/1

New England Patriots 9/2

Cincinnati Bengals 13/2

Baltimore Ravens 7/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 10/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 12/1

Denver Broncos 14/1

New York Jets 15/1

Kansas City Chiefs 20/1

Tennessee Titans 25/1

Buffalo Bills 30/1

Miami Dolphins 35/1

Houston Texans 50/1

Cleveland Browns 60/1

Oakland Raiders 75/1

ODDS TO WIN THE 2007-08 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Chicago Bears 2/1

New Orleans Saints 4/1

Seattle Seahawks 11/2

Dallas Cowboys 7/1

Philadelphia Eagles 8/1

Carolina Panthers 10/1

New York Giants 15/1

St. Louis Rams 18/1

Minnesota Vikings 20/1

Washington Redskins 20/1

Atlanta Falcons 25/1

Green Bay Packers 25/1

San Francisco 49ers 25/1

Arizona Cardinals 30/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1

Detroit Lions 40/1

 

[LHUCKS]

My early picks are the Pats/Saints.

Favorite long shot: Arizona Cardinals.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Removing the vig...here's every team's projected chance of winning the Super Bowl:

12.7% San Diego Chargers 9/2

10.0% Indianapolis Colts 6/1

10.0% Chicago Bears 6/1

7.0% New England Patriots 9/1

5.4% Cincinnati Bengals 12/1

5.4% New Orleans Saints 12/1

4.7% Baltimore Ravens 14/1

4.4% Seattle Seahawks 15/1

3.7% Dallas Cowboys 18/1

3.7% Jacksonville Jaguars 18/1

3.3% Philadelphia Eagles 20/1

3.3% Pittsburgh Steelers 20/1

2.7% Carolina Panthers 25/1

2.7% Denver Broncos 25/1

2.4% New York Jets 28/1

2.3% New York Giants 30/1

1.7% Kansas City Chiefs 40/1

1.7% St. Louis Rams 40/1

1.5% Tennessee Titans 45/1

1.4% Minnesota Vikings 50/1

1.4% Washington Redskins 50/1

1.1% Buffalo Bills 60/1

1.1% San Francisco 49ers 60/1

0.9% Atlanta Falcons 75/1

0.9% Green Bay Packers 75/1

0.9% Miami Dolphins 75/1

0.9% Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75/1

0.7% Arizona Cardinals 100/1

0.7% Houston Texans 100/1

0.6% Cleveland Browns 125/1

0.6% Detroit Lions 125/1

0.5% Oakland Raiders 150/1

 

[Chase Stuart]

I like the Jets, Pittsburgh and Indy.

 

[Chase Stuart]

AFC: 58.8% chance

NFC: 41.2% chance

 

[Billy Bats]

I think Cincy is good value, provided they don't lock up the whole team. For a crazy longshot, Tennessee at 45-1 looks nice.

 

[LHUCKS]

AFC: 58.8% chanceNFC: 41.2% chance

That looks about right.

 

[mlball77]

I like the payouts for Philly, KC, and STL.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think Cincy is good value, provided they don't lock up the whole team. For a crazy longshot, Tennessee at 45-1 looks nice.

I like Tennessee significantly better than I like Cincinnati. Being given way too much credit there considering their lack of a defense. Maybe Marvin Lewis can pull a Tony Dungy, but there are several teams I like better than the Bengals. That defense needs some serious help.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles? :X

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

Baltimore looks like the best value bet to me.

 

[Raider Nation]

Oakland is a STEAL @ 150:1.

 

[chook]

I like the payouts for Philly, KC, and STL.

Far from being a Philly fan, yeah they look pretty good at 20's if McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy all year.Although knowing their history, the safer bet would probably be to take them to win the NFC at 8's.

 

[radiohead417]

I'll take the Jags at 18-1; if they ever figure their QBs... (that being said, I'm a Jacksonville fan).

Arizona at 100-1 is intriguing as a long shot.

Pittsburgh at 20-1 also isn't bad.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I like Denver at 25-1.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I like the Jets...

There's a shocker.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Martyball is a false favorite.

 

[dparker713]

The best values have to be in the NFC. The conference is significantly weaker and more open overall, giving the long shots the best chance to reach the SB. Once there, its a one and done situation where anything can happen.

For value I like the Giants, Niners and Cards.

 

[lions327]

Removing the vig...here's every team's projected chance of winning the Super Bowl:

0.7% Houston Texans 100/1

0.6% Cleveland Browns 125/1

0.6% Detroit Lions 125/1

0.5% Oakland Raiders 150/1

The odds for the Lions is slightly off. The correct odds should read 1,000,000/1

 

[ravnzfan]

The best values have to be in the NFC. The conference is significantly weaker and more open overall, giving the long shots the best chance to reach the SB. Once there, its a one and done situation where anything can happen.

For value I like the Giants, Niners and Cards.

"best values" are in the NFC 'cuz the AFC has had 5 different teams win 8 of the last 10!next season will be more of the same, where 5 of the top 7 teams will be from the AFC...you can pick from:

NE

Balt

Cinn

Pitts

Ind

Jax

SD

Den

any of these 8 teams can run off a 13 "W" season, whereas maybe 3 or 4 NFC clubs could potentially do it

(and this doesn't include Tenn or KC, either of which can get hot and post double digit Wins)

 

[AB in DC]

Overrated: Cincinnati 12/1

Underrated: Tenneesse 45/1

I also like Baltimore at 14/1

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I like Denver at 25-1.

First one that jumped out at me.I also like:Baltimore Ravens 14/1Seattle Seahawks 15/1Dallas Cowboys 18/1Jacksonville Jaguars 18/1Philadelphia Eagles 20/1Denver Broncos 25/1St. Louis Rams 40/1Miami Dolphins 75/1

 

[Gatorman]

St. Louis Rams 40/1Miami Dolphins 75/1

Love both of these.

 

[The Bad CEO]

Arizona Cardinals 100/1

I love this longshot.

 

[kevjones22]

Arizona is a pipedream every year, the NFC is the Seahawks next year, take them to the bank.

 

[Hell Diablo]

An 8-8 team that is still improving at 75-1. Interesting. I'd throw $$ on the Packers especially since the NFC is going to be a crapshoot again in '07.

 

[Chase Stuart]

A team that got outscored by 65 points in the worst conference in memory and didn't rank in the top 20 in points scored or points allowed An 8-8 team that is still improving at 75-1. Interesting. I'd throw $$ on the Packers especially since the NFC is going to be a crapshoot again in '07.

Fixed.

 

[parasaurolophus]

I thought Marty was coming back?

 

[BoltBacker]

A team that got outscored by 65 points in the worst conference in memory and didn't rank in the top 20 in points scored or points allowed An 8-8 team that is still improving at 75-1. Interesting. I'd throw $$ on the Packers especially since the NFC is going to be a crapshoot again in '07.

Fixed.

Agreed.If GB gets a bye for the first round, plays DET in the second round of the playoffs and MIN in the conference championship..... they have a real chance.

 

[John Madden]

A team that got outscored by 65 points in the worst conference in memory and didn't rank in the top 20 in points scored or points allowed An 8-8 team that is still improving at 75-1. Interesting. I'd throw $$ on the Packers especially since the NFC is going to be a crapshoot again in '07.

Fixed.

Agreed.If GB gets a bye for the first round, plays DET in the second round of the playoffs and MIN in the conference championship..... they have a real chance.

How can you not like Brett Favre's comeback! What a great way for him to end on a high note.Brett Favre is the best thing since Brett Favre. And bratwurst.

 

[Hell Diablo]

An improving team.

They were outscored by over 65 points by AFC teams alone.

That would indicate that they fair pretty well against NFC opponents.

Plus, they were the 7th ranked team in the NFC. One more win would have put them in the playoffs.

I don't understand how everyone ranks the Giants as one of the better teams, or even the 49ers. What do they have that makes them look legitimate, but not Green Bay.

FA hasn't even started yet!

 

[Workhorse]

The Falcons at 75:1 is a nice play. I also like the Broncos at 25:1.

 

[AB in DC]

I don't understand how everyone ranks the Giants as one of the better teams, or even the 49ers. What do they have that makes them look legitimate, but not Green Bay.

I don't know that "everyone" does, but if you're saying that the Giants and 49ers are overrated by the posted odds, I agree with you.

 

[softball]

I like teams that have been good but taken a step back for some reason.

One that jumped off the page to me is

Washington at 50/1 I may have to make a call on that one.

Carolina being another example

I liked Denver as well, they will be right in the mix for the AFC West and a 1st Round Bye.

As a JETS fan, I think you need to forget about them for now. I think some unexpected changes are going to be made in order to make that team better in the long run.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

This would only be true if Dallas spreads were artificially low over the last couple of decades, and that's not true.

 

[BoltBacker]

I don't understand how everyone ranks the Giants as one of the better teams, or even the 49ers. What do they have that makes them look legitimate, but not Green Bay.

I don't know that "everyone" does, but if you're saying that the Giants and 49ers are overrated by the posted odds, I agree with you.

I don't think any of the three is legit.... but I'd pick GB last out of the trio. Let's look at their wins from last season...NYG wins@PHIWAS@ATL@DALTBHOU@CAR@WASSF winsSTLOAKMIN@DETSEA@SEA@DENGB wins@DET@MIAARZMIN@SFDETMIN@CHI *after CHI had locked up home field advantage through the playoffsThe least impressive list of wins of that group is easily GB, even if for just a moment you ignore the fact that the three guys responsible for all the offensive production are on the wrong side of 30(Favre/Green/Driver). GB is closer to the #pick than they are the superbowl. BTW I actually like GB because of the whole "community owned" angle but those eight wins might be the least impressive list I've ever seen. SF may have lost to GB and actually won one game less but at least they swept SEA and knocked DEN out of the playoffs IN DEN IN DEC(which is the single most impressive victory out of all three teams imo though the NYG win in PHI w/McNabb at QB was pretty good too).

 

[Gr00vus]

Who'd Vegas have as the favorite last year at this time?

 

[BoltBacker]

I like teams that have been good but taken a step back for some reason.One that jumped off the page to me is Washington at 50/1 I may have to make a call on that one.Carolina being another exampleI liked Denver as well, they will be right in the mix for the AFC West and a 1st Round Bye.As a JETS fan, I think you need to forget about them for now. I think some unexpected changes are going to be made in order to make that team better in the long run.

I agree with you but those are still three pretty tough divisions.The two worst #'s on the board are BAL@14/1 and DAL@18/1. Both those teams missed their window of opportunity. Neither look to be as strong next season as they were this year and they didn't win a playoff game this year. It would be interesting to see the over/under wins for some of these teams.

 

[BoltBacker]

Who'd Vegas have as the favorite last year at this time?

I'm sure it was pretty close between...NESEAPIT... and I thought IND was way too high(looks like they were right on that one).They were wrong on CHI. I had a wager from last summer on them at 17/1 odds based on their easy schedule and anticipated bye/home field advantage in the playoffs.

 

[The Jerk]

Who'd Vegas have as the favorite last year at this time?

I'm sure it was pretty close between...NESEAPIT... and I thought IND was way too high(looks like they were right on that one).They were wrong on CHI. I had a wager from last summer on them at 17/1 odds based on their easy schedule and anticipated bye/home field advantage in the playoffs.

I can't recall if this was February or sometime around the opening of training camp, but my memory has:Indy at 6:1.Pitt/Sea were both 7:1.I can't remember where NE was -- maybe they were even above the Colts.The point is, at worst the Colts were the second favorite to win it all.

 

[The Jerk]

The first thing I noticed from the OP is 3 of the top 11 teams (tied) are all from the AFC North. That's tough on all three of those teams and even harder on the Browns.

 

[Liquid Tension]

I like the Jets, Pittsburgh and Indy.

Is that based on the team you think could win or the best bet based on the odds?Based on the odds I think the Dolphins are the best bet at 75-1. If and it is a huge if Culpepper's knee is OK, they will get a nice boost at the QB position and maybe a huge boost. The OL was playing better under Hudson Houck later in the year and the injury bug can't be much worse for the Dolphins (one of the key's to winning in the NFL these days).

You pick the Jets, but I think you are making a common mistake that many people make in that they finished well so you project them to continue the next year. Sometimes that is true, but the Jets were the healthiest team in football last year so even if they played at the same level that started below average and then finished above average, they might have been above average only because they were healthy. Conversely, look at the Giants, a team that started great and then when they lost NINE starters they started losing a lot. Injuries play a HUGE role in the outcome of games because the teams are closer than they ever were in terms of talent.

 

[Chase Stuart]

You pick the Jets, but I think you are making a common mistake that many people make in that they finished well so you project them to continue the next year.

Look at the records of recent Super Bowl winners in the previous year. All very, very good.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

This would only be true if Dallas spreads were artificially low over the last couple of decades, and that's not true.

Not sure what you mean.Dallas' odds are lower because Vegas anticipates more money being bet on them, so i nthe off chance that they win it all next year, it won't hurt them as much if they were say 30/1, which they probably should be

 

[Pipes]

Why do the Vikings have better odds than the Packers?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

This would only be true if Dallas spreads were artificially low over the last couple of decades, and that's not true.

Not sure what you mean.Dallas' odds are lower because Vegas anticipates more money being bet on them, so i nthe off chance that they win it all next year, it won't hurt them as much if they were say 30/1, which they probably should be

I'm saying you're just speculating that Dallas' odds are low. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that. It's not like Dallas has a historically bad record ATS (in fact, I believe they have one of the best records ATS).

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Dallas has better odds than the Eagles?

Yes, becuase they will have more $ put on them. They are dallas after all.

This would only be true if Dallas spreads were artificially low over the last couple of decades, and that's not true.

Not sure what you mean.Dallas' odds are lower because Vegas anticipates more money being bet on them, so i nthe off chance that they win it all next year, it won't hurt them as much if they were say 30/1, which they probably should be

I'm saying you're just speculating that Dallas' odds are low. I've never seen any evidence to suggest that. It's not like Dallas has a historically bad record ATS (in fact, I believe they have one of the best records ATS).

Record ATS has nothing to do with a prop bet for superbowl champion before the season begins. Dallas' odds are low, IMO, based on the fact that Vegas expects more action on them than other teams.

 

[comfortably numb]

Per Sportsbook.com

Indianapolis Colts 6-1

San Diego Chargers 6-1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1

New England Patriots 10-1

Chicago Bears 10-1

Baltimore Ravens 15-1

Cincinnati Bengals 15-1

Dallas Cowboys 15-1

Denver Broncos 15-1

New Orleans Saints 18-1

Carolina Panthers 18-1

Philadelphia Eagles 18-1

Seattle Seahawks 20-1

New York Giants 20-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1

Kansas City Chiefs 30-1

New York Jets 30-1

Tennessee Titans 40-1

Miami Dolphins 40-1

Atlanta Falcons 50-1

Buffalo Bills 50-1

Washington Redskins 50-1

Green Bay Packers 50-1

Arizona Cardinals 60-1

Saint Louis Rams 60-1

Minnesota Vikings 75-1

San Francisco 49ers 75-1

Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1

Houston Texans 100-1

Cleveland Browns 100-1

Oakland Raiders 100-1

Detroit Lions 100-1

 

[lions327]

Per Sportsbook.com

Indianapolis Colts 6-1

San Diego Chargers 6-1

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1

New England Patriots 10-1

Chicago Bears 10-1

Baltimore Ravens 15-1

Cincinnati Bengals 15-1

Dallas Cowboys 15-1

Denver Broncos 15-1

New Orleans Saints 18-1

Carolina Panthers 18-1

Philadelphia Eagles 18-1

Seattle Seahawks 20-1

New York Giants 20-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1

Kansas City Chiefs 30-1

New York Jets 30-1

Tennessee Titans 40-1

Miami Dolphins 40-1

Atlanta Falcons 50-1

Buffalo Bills 50-1

Washington Redskins 50-1

Green Bay Packers 50-1

Arizona Cardinals 60-1

Saint Louis Rams 60-1

Minnesota Vikings 75-1

San Francisco 49ers 75-1

Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1

Houston Texans 100-1

Cleveland Browns 100-1

Oakland Raiders 100-1

Detroit Lions 100-1 1,000,000-1

Fixed