Vick QB1 in Week #3 According to Dodds (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

I am sorry if this is not appropriate as this is subscriber material. If so, then please remove my post and I apologize. Otherwise I just wanted to bring up the issue of Vick being ranked QB1 this week, which I think is nuts. Yes JAX's secondary is not looking too good right now, but there is no way I would start him above the following blue chip QBs (in no particular order):

Brees vs ATL

Romo at HOU

Rodgers at CHI

Schaub vs DAL

P Manning at DEN

Brady vs BUF

Rivers at SEA

I listed 7 QBs. Except for injuries, I am convinced at least 4 of these QBs will beat Vick this week, otherwise I come back here Monday morning (or Tuesday) and admit Dodds' forecast was better this week.

I am not saying it's impossible for Vick to beat those QBs. But he carries far more risk than others. He just has one full game and it was against the Lions. Just a few days ago he was a backup QB on his own NFL team. He's playing on the road against a team that just took a beating and there is no chance of a letdown happening. The chances of Vick popping out a 100-yd passing, 0 TD, 2 INTs, 1 fumble, and 50 yds rushing effort are far higher than these other QBs. Heck it's not inconceivable that Kolb comes in the 3rd quarter if Vick struggles. Downside is very large. Upside relative to others is not much better, if at all.

I normally use matchups to differentiate between two average players when deciding who to start. But I would rather start the stud in a tough matchup than an average player with a favorable matchup 16 times out of 16. This won't mean I am right 16/16 as shown last week by Chris Johnson vs PIT last week, but in my world that still does not justify ranking CJ below average RBs in any particular week.

I am aware that making projections for each player individually is very difficult. If I was making my own projections and posting them here, you could find far more 'strange' projections than I see with Dodds, so I don't pretend to be better. But I think if we see an odd projection it can be healthy to point it out and create debate.

 

[Banger]

You have to live in the present and not in the past. Vick is the 3rd ranked QB in my league through two weeks. He has 140 yards rushing in TWO WEEKS which equates to 350 yards passing in 1/25 scoring. He will run in TDs, he will continue to run the ball, he's got great weapons on a good offense and he's throwing the ball very well. What's not to like? Yes, this is unexpected but you have to take a step back and not view the situation with blinders and see it for what it is.

 

[dgreen]

You have to live in the present and not in the past.

I'd say: You have to live in the present and the distant past, not the recent past.The Vick I've seen the last two weeks has, athletically, looked like the Vick of 4 to 5 years ago. He's not the guy we saw last year. He's the guy we saw in Atlanta with possibly better passing.

 

[Donsmith753]

I play in a league with 1pt per 5yds rushing, 6pt td's but 4pt pass td's, if Vick continues he's going to be QB1 in my league.

 

[Banger]

I play in a league with 1pt per 5yds rushing, 6pt td's but 4pt pass td's, if Vick continues he's going to be QB1 in my league.

1/5 rushing is insane, he's a gold mine. If you get 1/20 passing that equates to 560 passing yards.

 

[matuski]

I play in a league with 1pt per 5yds rushing, 6pt td's but 4pt pass td's, if Vick continues he's going to be QB1 in my league.

By a large margin.

 

[JHuber77]

This ranking has to do with his running. He gets more points running and scoring TD's. 250 yds passing + 50 rushing w/ 2 td's = 27pts as opposed to using a QB that doesn't run at all. 300 yds passing + 2 td's = 24pts. Its basic value as most league count 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6pts for rushing td's.

 

[Donsmith753]

I play in a league with 1pt per 5yds rushing, 6pt td's but 4pt pass td's, if Vick continues he's going to be QB1 in my league.

1/5 rushing is insane, he's a gold mine. If you get 1/20 passing that equates to 560 passing yards.

I'm playing him this week, the guys also got Rivers, I hope he doesn't click and realise what a gold mine he's sitting on with that scoring system.

 

[Rick James]

This ranking has to do with his running. He gets more points running and scoring TD's. 250 yds passing + 50 rushing w/ 2 td's = 27pts as opposed to using a QB that doesn't run at all. 300 yds passing + 2 td's = 24pts. Its basic value as most league count 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6pts for rushing td's.

How many times has Vick thrown for 250 yards?Answer: Not many.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Vick on the road and grass, not nearly as fast. I think he comes down to Earth a bit this week.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

How many times has Vick thrown for 250 yards?Answer: Not many.

Very true, buuut......how many games has Vick played in an Andy 'throw me that thing! *eats cheesesteak*" Reid offense? Especially considering that the Jacksonville defense isn't exactly a world beater.The Eagles throw the ball. A LOT. If Vick has even a mediocre game throwing the ball, but is able to generate rush yards it's not that big of a leap to take. (Full disclosure: Not a Vick owner, supporter or fan.)It's just a projection. He has to predict someone at #1 and no one is ever going to agree with all of them. He'll need a big day rushing to be #1 on the week, in my mind, but then that's the gimmick with Vick, isn't it? He's capable of having those. I personally don't think it'll be this week, but that's me.

 

[Islander]

My comments apply to standard scoring, as Dodds' rankings are based on standard scoring too. Rankings in leagues with unusual or different scoring systems would of course be different.

Agreed, he has looked good in 1.5 games and the present should not be ignored. That taken into consideration I stand by my previous arguments and I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

 

[Banger]

This ranking has to do with his running. He gets more points running and scoring TD's. 250 yds passing + 50 rushing w/ 2 td's = 27pts as opposed to using a QB that doesn't run at all. 300 yds passing + 2 td's = 24pts. Its basic value as most league count 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and 6pts for rushing td's.

How many times has Vick thrown for 250 yards?Answer: Not many.

last week...and his real value isn't as a pure passer, it's as a passer/runner. Don't view him solely as a passer unless you don't get pts for rushing.

 

[dgreen]

I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

Who would you rank #1 this week?

 

[killrobotkill]

You do realize you're basing your evaluations of Vick on one and a half games against the Lions' defense and the Packers during garbage time, right?

 

[Islander]

I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

Who would you rank #1 this week?

I have the greatest and most complete player of all time Darrell Green #1 QB for this week I have A Rodgers and P Manning tied based on my own projections. I would take one of these two in a head-to-head bet against any other QB including Vick. This means I think Rodgers and Manning have more than 50% chance of outscoring any other random QB. I would take the 1-1 bet against Vick for any of the 7 QBs I listed, and maybe Favre as well who plays in Detroit. So I have Vick #8 or #9.

 

[Banger]

You do realize you're basing your evaluations of Vick on one and a half games against the Lions' defense and the Packers during garbage time, right?

and what were people basing their expectations of Kolb on? It's not as if Vick doesn't have a history/track record. It's not as if people don't know what the Eagles offense is and skill players are. Any QB who runs that offense will have value and right now he's at the helm and has looked good doing it.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

My comments apply to standard scoring, as Dodds' rankings are based on standard scoring too. Rankings in leagues with unusual or different scoring systems would of course be different. Agreed, he has looked good in 1.5 games and the present should not be ignored. That taken into consideration I stand by my previous arguments and I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

Even in standard scoring QBS get points for rushing so I think his value holds strong

 

[Islander]

My comments apply to standard scoring, as Dodds' rankings are based on standard scoring too. Rankings in leagues with unusual or different scoring systems would of course be different. Agreed, he has looked good in 1.5 games and the present should not be ignored. That taken into consideration I stand by my previous arguments and I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

Even in standard scoring QBS get points for rushing so I think his value holds strong

I never said Vick's value this week is not strong. But to view him as the best option relative to all other blue chip QBs is on another level.

 

[FunkyTeaParty]

I keep hearing that Vick played in "garbage time" vs. Green Bay. He played the whole second half and was driving for the tying score when they got stopped on 4th and 1.

When was garbage time?

 

[Wrigley]

You do realize you're basing your evaluations of Vick on one and a half games against the Lions' defense and the Packers during garbage time, right?

Whatchu talkin bout Willis?

 

[dgreen]

You do realize you're basing your evaluations of Vick on one and a half games against the Lions' defense and the Packers during garbage time, right?

One and a half games? You do realize Vick has been in the NFL since 2001, right?

 

[curta269]

You have to live in the present and not in the past.

I'd say: You have to live in the present and the distant past, not the recent past.The Vick I've seen the last two weeks has, athletically, looked like the Vick of 4 to 5 years ago. He's not the guy we saw last year. He's the guy we saw in Atlanta with possibly better passing.

I completely agree with this. He looks like a much better passer now while being as fast as he ever was with Atlanta. Great coaching move by Reid to not go with his guy and put the QB out there that gives his team the best chance to win.

 

[Sinn Fein]

molehill ----------------MOUNTAIN

The difference between the top ranked QB and 10th ranked QB is 3 points. Have to say that it really is a crapshoot, such that you could justify ranking a bunch of people #1. Vick as #1 would not be shocking, nor would Vick at #10.

The projections are 248 passing, 45 rushing - not unreasonable. He is averaging 230/70 - and that is with missing 1/2 a game.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Vick does look better than he used to.

But...............

2 major weaknesses I recall for Vick that I am really curious to see if he can overcome:

1. Let's see Vick in a game where he's behind. Not a Green Bay game where they had gameplanned for Kolb and got Vick most of the day instead, no, a game where the other team has gameplanned for Vick and are awaiting his style of play and then manage to jump out way in front early (and by the looks of PHI's defense so far that might happen). Which leads me to No. 2....

2. Regardless of the numbers, from a sheer standpoint of winning and losing (no, not all time, look at his last season, ATL was 7-9, they closed 2-7) Vick had been figured out by NFL defenses by the time he went to the joint. Teams had put spies on him, they had learned they could adjust to his passing game.

Reid's a great NFL coach; the guy knows what he is doing (getting to, what, 5 (?) NFC championships is a very big accomplishment), but let's see if Vick has really changed as a player.

It's one thing to take a young QB and look at him after a full offseason, preseason and 1 half of football against a potential Top-5 team in GB and say he needs more development; it's another to blow off all that work for a guy who indeed has accomplishments but who has also had his chance and failed to progress beyond a certain point himself.

 

[Islander]

molehill ----------------MOUNTAINThe difference between the top ranked QB and 10th ranked QB is 3 points. Have to say that it really is a crapshoot, such that you could justify ranking a bunch of people #1. Vick as #1 would not be shocking, nor would Vick at #10.The projections are 248 passing, 45 rushing - not unreasonable. He is averaging 230/70 - and that is with missing 1/2 a game.

I would respectfully disagree. 3 pts when talking about projections is huge. Brady and Schaub have about the same projection this week. Give me Brady with odds of +3 compared to Schaub -3, and I will win far more than 50% of the time if I get the +3. Think NFL when a team is favored by 2 pts... when the line moves to 5 pt spread, something massive has happened. So in my humble opinion, 3 pt difference is not a crapshoot at all.

 

[Joe Bryant]

For those that have pm'd and asked, these threads are fine. Actually, better than fine. The "I don't agree and here's why and here's who I would rank higher" type threads are exactly what we want the SP to be. The OP did this exactly right and didn't start off with the "what an idiotic ranking / what's he smoking? / I could throw darts better" type post which always goes downhill. He did it right.

And good discussion should follow.

The reality is we love Vick. I agree 100% it's risky to put great stock in 4 quarters of the Lions pass D. But Green Bay is solid. And I liked what we say there. The reality for me is that I think he's significantly better than he was in ATL. Not a little better. A lot better. He's always been an athletic freak. That hasn't changed. He might have lost a bit on that part but not much. Where he's made light years improvement is on the mental side of the game. Working harder in the film room and just growing up. You saw that after the Lions game when he was talking about how it was Kevin's team. Lots of guys would have done the "that's not my decision" type answer. He genuinely seemed like he was concerned for Kolb and the team.

Jim Mora who coached him ATL was on the radio yesterday and he agreed that Vick is way ahead of where he was in ATL.

So yeah, we see him as #1 on Tuesday night. That very likely could change during the week as things develop. He started off as our #3 guy last week on Tuesday and dropped a bit through the week.

And as has been said above, with those top guys, just a few yards often separates #1 from #5.

We like him a ton and I think we owe it to our readers to not go the "safe" route and go with the conventional wisdom. You can get that anywhere.

J

 

[Holy Roller]

2. Regardless of the numbers, from a sheer standpoint of winning and losing (no, not all time, look at his last season, ATL was 7-9, they closed 2-7) Vick had been figured out by NFL defenses by the time he went to the joint. Teams had put spies on him, they had learned they could adjust to his passing game.

From a "real world" win-loss perspective, I see what you're saying. Teams very well might have figured him out a bit at the time. But from a fantasy football perspective, in his last full year starting Vick was #6 OVERALL regardless of position in my league. And in the limited sample during his time back as a starter, he seems to be making better decisions in the air. Maybe it's the better supporting cast around him at receiver, the system in Philly, or maturing as a passer. Maybe it's just teams not adapting to him yet. But he's producing again from a fantasy perspective. If Reid is really committed to him, I think he's going to continue as a QB1 for fantasy teams.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.

I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.

J

 

[grantsa4]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

It's Jacksonville, Id rank him #1 as well. Now dont go benching Peyton for him or anything but If you own VIck and say Flacco. well decision should be easy

 

[Hartford Whaler]

The reality is we love Vick.We like him a ton and I think we owe it to our readers to not go the "safe" route and go with the conventional wisdom. You can get that anywhere.J

Joe - i don't disagree with you, but the more interesting/important thing for me is where do you see him ranking for the rest fo the season? Inside the top 5? Should people be trying to trade for him if they have a 7-10 type QB?

 

[Sinn Fein]

molehill ----------------MOUNTAINThe difference between the top ranked QB and 10th ranked QB is 3 points. Have to say that it really is a crapshoot, such that you could justify ranking a bunch of people #1. Vick as #1 would not be shocking, nor would Vick at #10.The projections are 248 passing, 45 rushing - not unreasonable. He is averaging 230/70 - and that is with missing 1/2 a game.

I would respectfully disagree. 3 pts when talking about projections is huge. Brady and Schaub have about the same projection this week. Give me Brady with odds of +3 compared to Schaub -3, and I will win far more than 50% of the time if I get the +3. Think NFL when a team is favored by 2 pts... when the line moves to 5 pt spread, something massive has happened. So in my humble opinion, 3 pt difference is not a crapshoot at all.

My point is - projections are simply one tool to evaluate two players. When the projections have a difference of 3 points - you won't go wrong if you have to choose between Vick and QB #10.I don't see these rankings - with a tight grouping - as dispositive of who to start in a given week. Sure - if I am choosing between 1 and 30 - the rankings probably make the case for #1 - but between 1-10 you make your own choice at that point. If you are expecting the stats on Tuesday to match the rankings every week - I think you are always going to be disappointed.I don't own Vick in any league, I am playing against him this week, so I hope the projection is wrong, but I don't think it is out of line.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

You have to live in the present and not in the past.

I'd say: You have to live in the present and the distant past, not the recent past.The Vick I've seen the last two weeks has, athletically, looked like the Vick of 4 to 5 years ago. He's not the guy we saw last year. He's the guy we saw in Atlanta with possibly better passing.

The passing is night and day really. He always had a cannon. But was often impatient with his reads and to eager to take off, making it tough to run an offense. Watching the Vick of last week was an eye opening experience. I think people are poo pooing it because it's the LIons, but that D is young and hungry. They held the bears to 14. It wasn't like he was playing CLE. He was so fluid, but at the same time quick and electric when he needed to.And the jags have looked like #### for about the last 8 games. Why are they suddenly not going to suck?

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Vick on the road and grass, not nearly as fast. I think he comes down to Earth a bit this week.

you keep saying that like he ran for 120 last week. He ran for 37 yards and mostly stayed in the pocket. And the jags are still terrible indoors or out.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

My comments apply to standard scoring, as Dodds' rankings are based on standard scoring too. Rankings in leagues with unusual or different scoring systems would of course be different. Agreed, he has looked good in 1.5 games and the present should not be ignored. That taken into consideration I stand by my previous arguments and I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

pretty strange to play the field and feel good about it. How bout you just pick one guy as 1 like dodds does, or rank your list and not just take the top 8 qbs and say they might beat vick.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

Who would you rank #1 this week?

I have the greatest and most complete player of all time Darrell Green #1 QB for this week I have A Rodgers and P Manning tied based on my own projections. I would take one of these two in a head-to-head bet against any other QB including Vick. This means I think Rodgers and Manning have more than 50% chance of outscoring any other random QB. I would take the 1-1 bet against Vick for any of the 7 QBs I listed, and maybe Favre as well who plays in Detroit. So I have Vick #8 or #9.

I'll take the vick vs favre bet in a heartbeat. I'm sure we can find a escrow among the throng. I could use another 50 apples or so.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

There are always a few each year over something like that. Part of the deal.J

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

molehill ----------------MOUNTAINThe difference between the top ranked QB and 10th ranked QB is 3 points. Have to say that it really is a crapshoot, such that you could justify ranking a bunch of people #1. Vick as #1 would not be shocking, nor would Vick at #10.The projections are 248 passing, 45 rushing - not unreasonable. He is averaging 230/70 - and that is with missing 1/2 a game.

 

[thehornet]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

you made the right call.

 

[TWP]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

There are always a few each year over something like that. Part of the deal.J

If Vick does well will he re-up with an apology? Haha.

 

[ponchsox]

The original poster must be an offended Rodgers, Brees, or Manning owner. Those three guys are must starts every week but there will be weeks where Vick will outscore them.

 

[belljr]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

There are always a few each year over something like that. Part of the deal.J

I like a refund because your custom draft sheet netted me Kolb as #10 QB and my starter. NOW YOU LOVE VICK!!!!!

 

[Jayrod]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

There are always a few each year over something like that. Part of the deal.J

Yeah, that's a little If somebody wants to tell you where players should be ranked, why is he paying for it? If you are so dead set that you know more why not just do your own projections and save the $$$?Now if someone had a couple of weeks of following the website's suggestions and getting burned each week, that I could understand, but getting mad about projections before the week is played out seems ridiculous.

 

[Banger]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

There are always a few each year over something like that. Part of the deal.J

I like a refund because your custom draft sheet netted me Kolb as #10 QB and my starter. NOW YOU LOVE VICK!!!!!

ya, they should have had a crystal ball to see this one...was pretty obvious.

 

[Islander]

My comments apply to standard scoring, as Dodds' rankings are based on standard scoring too. Rankings in leagues with unusual or different scoring systems would of course be different. Agreed, he has looked good in 1.5 games and the present should not be ignored. That taken into consideration I stand by my previous arguments and I would not rank him QB1 this week in standard scoring and that at least 4 QBs of the 7 I listed will beat him.

pretty strange to play the field and feel good about it. How bout you just pick one guy as 1 like dodds does, or rank your list and not just take the top 8 qbs and say they might beat vick.

You must have misinterpreted my statement. I am not taking the field vs Vick. I am doing exactly what you say: pick one QB and have him head-to-head vs Vick. Except that I am doing better: I am doing it 7 times.I take Rodgers, Dodds takes VickI take P Manning, Dodds takes VickI take Brees, Dodds takes Vicketc.If I win 4, 5, 6, or 7 of these matchups, I was right. If I win 0, 1, 2, or 3 of these matchups, I was wrong. Taking the "field" would mean that if only one of my QBs beats Vick, I win. That's not the case at all. Agreed that it would be lame.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

For those that have pm'd and asked, these threads are fine. Actually, better than fine. The "I don't agree and here's why and here's who I would rank higher" type threads are exactly what we want the SP to be. The OP did this exactly right and didn't start off with the "what an idiotic ranking / what's he smoking? / I could throw darts better" type post which always goes downhill. He did it right.And good discussion should follow.The reality is we love Vick. I agree 100% it's risky to put great stock in 4 quarters of the Lions pass D. But Green Bay is solid. And I liked what we say there. The reality for me is that I think he's significantly better than he was in ATL. Not a little better. A lot better. He's always been an athletic freak. That hasn't changed. He might have lost a bit on that part but not much. Where he's made light years improvement is on the mental side of the game. Working harder in the film room and just growing up. You saw that after the Lions game when he was talking about how it was Kevin's team. Lots of guys would have done the "that's not my decision" type answer. He genuinely seemed like he was concerned for Kolb and the team. Jim Mora who coached him ATL was on the radio yesterday and he agreed that Vick is way ahead of where he was in ATL. So yeah, we see him as #1 on Tuesday night. That very likely could change during the week as things develop. He started off as our #3 guy last week on Tuesday and dropped a bit through the week.And as has been said above, with those top guys, just a few yards often separates #1 from #5.We like him a ton and I think we owe it to our readers to not go the "safe" route and go with the conventional wisdom. You can get that anywhere.J

/thread

 

[Islander]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.J

Can you send him a Blackeyed Joe thong too? To wipe his puffy eyes...

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Already had a guy asking for a refund and to cancel his subscription over this today. Oh well.

I'd still much rather throw what we really think than go the safe route.

J

Wow, that's a little excessive. Return the subscription over that??

was it this guy?